Atlanta Braves 2012 Top 25 Prospects: 1-5
by cbwilk on Nov 25, 2011 8:01 AM EST
in Braves Prospect Reviews
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PrintToday we finish up Talking Chop's countdown of the top 25 prospects in the Braves organization. The top 25 are selected by yondaime14, gondeee, and myself each putting together our own lists, then averaging the three lists together.
1. Julio Teheran, RHP
The Skinny: Arguably the top prospect in baseball. Dominated in AAA in 2011, earning International League Pitcher of the Year and Rookie of the Year honors. Made a pair of spot starts for Atlanta during the year before joining the team in September for the stretch run.
The Good: Above average stuff, including mid to upper 90s fastball with sharp movement and above average changeup and curveball. Deceptive delivery. Has been durable over the last few seasons. Intelligent pitcher with an advanced game plan who gets the most out of his stuff. Allows the defense to work behind him. Hard worker with strong drive to be the best. Only 21 years old.
The Bad: Has a tendency to lose feel for his curveball which makes him very hittable. Has added muscle but is still very skinny. Smallish frame.
...in a perfect world...Teheran becomes an ace and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
ETA: 2012. He has nothing left to prove in the Minors and there's a good chance he earns a job in Atlanta's rotation out of Spring Training.
2. Randall Delgado, RHP
The Skinny: Began 2011 as an All-Star with Mississippi and finished as Atlanta's best starter in September.
The Good: All of his pitches are above average, including a moving, low 90s fastball. Big and durable with the potential to be a workhorse. Advanced feel for pitching.
The Bad: Sometimes gets too fine with his pitches, which leads to walks. Needs to become more aggressive at attacking hitters.
...in a perfect world...Delgado becomes a top of the rotation starter.
ETA: 2012. Despite his great work in September, he may still be behind Julio Teheran and Mike Minor on the depth chart. Even if he starts the year in Gwinnett, he'll finish it in Atlanta.
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
The Skinny: After missing the second half of 2010 with arm injuries, began 2011 by dominating for Lynchburg, then pitched well in Mississippi where he moved to the bullpen. After a quick stop in Gwinnett he moved up to Atlanta in mid-August where he was a solid member of the relief corp.
The Good: Blazing, upper 90s fastball with serious movement that he couples with a devastating hammer curveball. Strong, muscular frame. Versatile enough to start or relieve. Eager to learn and takes quickly to coaching. Only 21 years old.
The Bad: Has been injury prone throughout his career, with shoulder, elbow, and back ailments. Will need a solid third pitch if he goes back to the rotation, meaning his changeup needs work. Coaches have questioned his confidence and aggressiveness.
...in a perfect world...Vizcaino either becomes a top of the rotation starter or an elite closer.
ETA: 2012. He could make Atlanta's roster out of Spring Training as a reliever, though the team may decide to send him to Gwinnett to return to the rotation. Either way, he'll be in the Major Leagues at the end of the year.
4. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
The Skinny: Braves first round selection in the 2011 draft out of Florida State. Pitched well in his pro debut at Rome and put on a good showing in the Arizona Fall League after the season.
The Good: Superb changeup and above average command. Average fastball that sits around 90 with reliable movement. Solid slider that needs work. Big, strong, durable body. Advanced feel for pitching.
The Bad: Only average stuff. Could stand to add some velocity. Not much room for projection.
...in a perfect world...becomes an above average middle of the rotation starter.
ETA: Late 2013. He'll likely start the year in Lynchburg or Mississippi as the Braves will be aggressive with his development.
5. Christian Bethancourt, C
The Skinny: After struggling with Rome in 2010, he returned there to start 2011 and played well, earning a promotion to Lynchburg where he had mixed results. Performed surprisingly well in the Arizona Fall League after the season playing against much older competition.
The Good: Absolute cannon for an arm that shuts down opposing teams' running games. Has the potential to be a Gold Glove catcher. High contact hitter. Big, strong body with room to add muscle. Smart baserunner. Only 20 years old.
The Bad: Has trouble blocking balls in the dirt. Very poor at drawing walks. Needs to learn how to drive the ball for power. Struggles to adjust when he moves up a level. Has been accused of being lazy and unmotivated.
...in a perfect world...Bethancourt becomes a perennial Gold Glove winner with above average offensive production.
ETA: 2014. He's very young with a lot of rough edges on his game. The Braves already have the best catcher in baseball, so they have no reason to rush Bethancourt.
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Thanks for this series of posts
Great explanation of Vizcaino’s place in things. I’m thinking his future will be in the pen. As young as the pen is already, replacing Sherrill and Linebrink with Vizcaino, Hoover and/or Gearrin, our pen might be real good for a real long time.
Big changes coming to the prospect list in the next year, looks like 5 or 6 could be graduated, and Frankie could include others in trades. How far might the farms ranking drop without Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Pastornicky, Hoover and Gearrin?
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
CB, I'm a bit confused...
Are these rankings based on potential ceiling, proximity to ML readiness, or a combination of both? It’s strange to see SGM this high already as our #4 prospect when he’s only projected to be a #3 or #4 SP in the rotation…especially with Bethancourt, Salcedo, and Andrelton Simmons ranked far below him.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Floor
There’s a strong chance that any of Salcedo, Bethancourt, and Simmons don’t make the majors seeing as none of them have even played at AA. With that much risk, it’s hard to project them as more valuable then a nearly ML ready mid-rotation starter.
by OrangeBravo on Nov 25, 2011 10:00 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Gilmartin hasn't even pitched in high-A, let alone AA
Not sure how you’re going to call him nearly MLB ready when Simmons has already spent a full year at high-A with great results. Not buying the argument that Gilmartin has the higher floor either. First, he’s a pitcher, which by definition means he’s risky. Second, Simmons is a plus defensive SS, so unless he completely craps the bed in AA this year, its almost assured he will at the very least contribute in the majors as a backup SS/utility man.
experience in the NCAA’s, age, already developed skills. He was sent to Rookie and Rome just so he was easier to control innings wise and so he could work on particular things and adapt to professional life. The bottom line is we know what he has and what he most likely is going to be. He just needs to perfect his skills while Simmons, Bethancourt, and guys like that are still developing their skills. Sure they might have a higher ceiling, but how many people actually hit their “ceiling”?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
NCAA baseball is at best similar to high-A
Making an argument that he deserves to be higher than a guy who already played at high-A based solely on MLB readiness makes absolutely no sense.
Gilmartin is younger than Simmons
And dominated in college, while Simmons is proving to be a barely adequate hitter. His hitting talents don’t look to translate to higher levels-in order to see him as a successful major leaguer, you’re having to project him developing both a little more power and a little more patience.
Sean Gilmartin already has, essentially, the skills necessary to become a spot starter in the Majors. We’re going to spend the next year stretching out his arm, getting him ready to throw over 150+ innings in a year, and hopefully fine-turning some of his skills, but not waiting on him to develop, really.
So yes, I think it’s fair to say that Gilmartin is more ready than Simmons.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Barely adequate? He just led the Carolina League in batting average
As a plus defensive SS. If he just maintains his power and patience as he moves up, he can easily be a 3-4 WAR SS. Basically a .330 OBP and .370 SLG with +5 defense at SS and average baserunning already makes him a 3 WAR player.
In no way is it clear that Gilmartin could be an adequate starter in the big leagues without improving. There are plenty of lefties with good change ups and middling velocity that can dominate the lesser hitters of the low minors (or college), yet there stuff just doesn’t play up enough once they start facing good hitters. I don’t know if Gilmartin falls in that group or not, but its certainly a very real possibility. If it weren’t for Mike Minor, Gilmartin wouldn’t be getting nearly as much love from Braves fans as he is right now.
It equals his patience
If he can maintain a 6% BB rate into the majors, he’ll be more than fine.
Will he maintain that kind of walk rate against more experienced pitching?
That’s also a very reasonable question.
It’s useful if he can maintain a .330 OBP, but if he has to be a .300 hitter to do it, we’re asking quite a lot from him. Only about 30ish guys hit .300 last season. More than three times that many had a .330 OBP. The first part is much tougher than the second part.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
And he's a slap hitter with limited power
Anyone who starts at a position at the major league level needs at least SOME power to speak of. Even Elvis Andrus hit 5 home runs last season. It’s not just that you need to hit home runs, though, you need to be able to drive the ball hard even if you’re just going to be a mainly on-base guy. Hitting the ball with authority is important.
As I said, if you think Simmons is going to work out, you’re projecting that he has to develop both more power and more patience as a 22 year old. There’s definitely bust potential there-it’s a bit more limited for a guy like Gilmartin, who (against a similar level of competition in college) post a K-rate over nine, with over six strike-outs per walk, and an ERA just over 2. It’s hard to dominate much more than that.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Also, Gilmartin is younger.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
He doesn't need to develop those skills beyond
developing them enough to maintain his current profile as he moves up the levels. You don’t need power to start at a position in the majors. There have been enough guys we’ve seen have long, relatively successful careers with ISO in the .100 range.
It also isn’t hard to dominate much more than Gilmartin did in college. Go look at Trevor Bauer. That is what it means to dominate college. There are plenty of pitchers with strong college profiles that failed in the majors.
Yes
But pitchers at higher levels tend to pitch better than guys at lower levels, so yes, he’d need to develop his patience better. You tend to see more pitches in the strike zone as you ascend levels, and more deceptive pitches. He has a lot to prove at AA still.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Quite frankly
I disagree. Even if his upside is only as a #4 starter, all he would need to do is stay healthy and post a 4.30ish FIP in order to be a a 2 WAR player. He’s closer to that than Simmons is to posting a .300 wOBA in the majors with +5 defense. Even the defense isn’t guaranteed for Simmons, as he makes a ton of errors and needs to clean that up.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
28 errors is not close to a ton for MiLB SS
Part of that is the field conditions they play in and the lack of MLB quality defenders around them. I’m sure a few of Simmons throwing errors would have been saved by a 1B like Freeman.
If simmons was our SS this year and SMG was in the rotation, who would be more productive over the year?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
by JKowalek on Nov 25, 2011 6:39 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I don't think either would be anything close to productive
Simmons would at least be good on defense, but would be bad of offense. Gilmartin would probably end up with an ERA in the 5-6 range.
Well hey if one guy did it, it must not be hard
Who are these others you mention? Its obviously something that rarely ever happens. Not to mention Furcal was just a bit more highly regarded than Simmons as a prospect.
Dude, he wasn’t seriously making a case for sending Simmons straight from A+ to the majors. He’s just pushing your buttons at this point.
You really need to relax.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
I know he wasn't making a serious case
And that’s not me pissed off…I responded to his post, if you want to read more into, so be it
Actually I was poking the hole in your comment
Simmons would struggle offensively if he was in the bigs next year. But the A+ jump has nothing to do with it. It would be because his skill set, the lack of power, and lack of walks, would be poorly suited to make the jump without more time developing and improving his weak areas.
And I’m too lazy to look up others, but Furcal can’t be the only one to make that jump. I know others have, but can’t recall them off the top of my head.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Its not something that happens often and when it does its usually a special prospect
Also, Furcal hadn’t exactly shown power and patience in high A that year. He actually posted a lower isolated power and barely bested Simmons in isolated discipline. The point is that scouting reports matter and scouting reports on Simmons thus far have been very strong (though obviously not approaching the level of Furcal).
Huh?
You’re right on iso/power.
But Simmons had 29 walks in 570 plate appearances.
Furcal had almost twice that (55), in similar pa’s (586).
Simmons had a 5.1% BB rate in A+. Furcal’s was near 7%.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 28, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
I compared them in high A
Furcal had 14 walks in 204 PA. Simmons had an isoD of .040 compared to .050 for Furcal. Maybe “barely bested” wasn’t best descriptor, but you get the idea. There is nothing in the numbers that showed Furcal to be a better bet jumping to the majors than Simmons. It comes down to scouting reports.
Look, this line of discussion is really pointless. I responded like that to him because I think he mistakenly thought I was talking about the future, not what would happen next year. There really isn’t any reason to think Simmons would be anything but bad offensively if he were thrown to the wolves in the big leagues next year. He just doesn’t have the tools to make up for his lack of experience against quality pitching.
Curious....Have you seen Simmons?
I’ve not seen Gilmartin, but I have Simmons multiple times. I’d take him today defensively and what he will bring offensively is enough. Gilmartin is more ready, but that doesn’t mean he has a higher ceiling than Simmons.
"Just because we fall from a different tree,
doesn't mean we're not created equally"
i agree with that
but readiness has to be a factor and taken into consideration
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Excellent work
Thanks. I think Vizcaino ends up being a reliever, but let’s hope he can stay healthy.
Ummmmm
Arguably the top prospect in baseball
People who argue that either:
a.) don’t follow prospects at all
or
b.) are obvious Braves homers.
I like Teheran and all, but consensus says he’s not even the top pitching prospect in baseball anymore.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 25, 2011 12:03 PM EST reply actions
Agreed, he's not even that close to Matt Moore
Then again, the scouting report on his change here is a little on the pessimistic side as far as his current stuff goes. His change is clearly at least a plus pitch IMO, possibly even a 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. When he maintains the arm speed and gets the velocity in the 82-84 range like he did later in the season, its just a nasty, nasty pitch. Can’t remember the last time I saw a left handed ML hitter jump out of the way of a change that ended up going right down the middle. The run he gets on the pitch is great.
I guess on the other hand his fastball clearly doesn’t sit mid to upper 90s. I’d probably give him mid 90s, but he never even topped 96 in the majors last year, so I’m not sure where the upper 90s part is coming from.
My Top 3 would be:
1. Moore
2. Teheran
3. Jacob Turner
The only argument that could be made was that Teheran dominated AAA all year, where as Moore only dominated it for 9 or so starts
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Turner #3 is pretty funny
He’s not even close to that level. I’d actually put Turner more on the level of someone like Delgado.
I wouldn't
His stuff is SO good and he is really damn young. Plus I think Shelby Miller and Martin Perez are a bit overrated
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
What about his stuff is SO good?
He only managed 7.12 K/9 in AA this year. His fastball doesn’t even have as much velocity as Delgado. Heck, Delgado got a higher percentage of swings and misses (one of the better measures of stuff) than Turner. Turner is still living off the hype from the time he was drafted when it comes to his stuff. He probably wouldn’t even crack a list of the top 30 minor league starters when it comes to raw stuff.
I guess I ignorned every thing else, because when I watched him on his debut he looked really good and I based my liking on that
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Don't get me wrong, there is plenty to like about him
I just don’t think he is close to being in the discussion for #3 pitching prospect in baseball.
Im curious then
You obviously know your prospects. Who are your top pitching prospects?
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
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No exact order, but as far as tiers go...
Tier 1: Matt Moore
Tier 2: Teheran
Tier 2.5: Shelby Miller
Tier 3: Gerrit Cole, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy
Tier 3.5: Trevor Bauer, Jameson Taillon
Tier 4: Pomeranz, Turner, Delgado, Vizcaino, Parker, Martinez, Perez, Harvey, Paxton, Wheeler, etc. (there are probably 15-20 guys total in this tier at a similar level)
Went with half tiers for guys I feel like are clearly at the bottom of one tier and the top of the next tier, but without a big enough difference to be a true tier of their own.
Completey disagree
I’m not a huge Bauer fan. He has big time command issues, just like Cole, but he doesn’t have the ridiculous raw stuff that Cole has. Its not like I have them far apart here. They’re within 5 spots of one another. I’ll just lean towards the guys with 3 pitches with the potential to be plus-plus. Cole has very similar raw stuff to Strasburg.
Some of the things said in this article must be jokes, aren't they?
Teheran is NOT the top pitching prospect in baseball. Matt Moore is. (And I’m from Colombia. We are all rooting for Teheran being the next Pedro, but let’s be realistic)
Randall Delgado wasn’t the best starter in September. Brandon Beachy was.
Only Minor’s 5.28 FIP was worse than Delgado’s 5.07 FIP among Braves starters. Delgado’s 5.17 xFIP was the worst. Delgado’s 2.52 ERA was luck.
Also, Delgado isn’t a better prospect than Vizcaino. He doesn’t have either better stuff or better numbers to support your cases. And in every prospects list Vizcaino is ahead. Even ahead of Teheran in Keith Law’s list.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 12:18 PM EST reply actions
Oh and please tell me where it says Teheran is the top pitching prospect in baseball?
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
BC said he is arguably the top prospect in baseball
Pretty sure you have to be the top pitching prospect to be the top prospect.
ARGUABLY
That means an ARGUMENT could be made for him being the top pitching prospect in baseball.
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
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I think Moore is #1 easily
But the only one I could think of is that Teheran dominated AAA for a longer time than did Moore
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Which isn't really a rational argument IMO
Considering Moore dominated AA, AAA, and the Majors with stuff that is clearly a notch above Teheran’s. Can’t hold the Rays conservative approach with their pitchers against him.
You could make an argument that the guy who is a year and a half younger might develop more.
Which seems somewhat fair.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
ugh, double post.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Well hey let's make Luis Heredia #1 then
I mean he just turned 17 a few months ago, just imagine how much he could develop. The fact of the matter is that Teheran would have to improve by leaps and bounds to get his stuff to Moore level. Moore has a better fastball and a breaking ball that is just lightyears ahead of Teheran’s. There is no reason to think that is suddenly going to change just because Teheran is young.
strawman
Was Heredia in AAA? No, then you’re ignoring the crux of the argument. Not just younger, but excelling at a higher level (unless you put enormous stock in Moore’s hot run, and assume his control issues are a thing of the past).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Its not a strawman, its pointing out the flawed reasoning of assuming young pitchers will continue to develop linearly
And you’re completely ignoring that Moore’s stuff is on a completely different level than Teheran’s. Also, Moore hasn’t actually had a problem with control since the early part of the 2010 season. Maybe we should look at Teheran’s struggles down the stretch with control and hold that against him too?
So you're saying the last time Matt Moore had control problems, he was Teheran's age?
Interesting.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Yes and even with his control problems
He was still more dominant than Teheran. Not to mention he’s improved since then. Just because Moore improved doesn’t mean Teheran definitely will as well.
You are incorrect about what I'm doing
strawman: a weak or imaginary opposition (as an argument or adversary) set up only to be easily confuted
i.e. Heredia, who was in the GCL.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Not at all
I took your example to a ridiculous extreme to show a flaw in the reasoning. That’s basically the definition of reductio ad absurdum. Its a different kind of logical fallacy.
then you failed to comprehend my "argument"
I never gave an “example”. You did, by using some 17 yr old in the GCL, which meets the definition of a “strawman” perfectly.
But hey, you know everything, so there’s no point in continuing this conversation.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
What you said?
The Luis Heredia comment wasn’t even in response to you
Except Teheran is a year and a half younger, and
was producing as good or better at a higher level than Moore.
There’s your “rational argument”.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Teheran was not producing as good or better than Moore
He WAS at a higher level for a while, but then Moore came up to AAA and dominated, and then went to the majors and dominated. I was still in the camp that argued Teheran was on Moore’s level around mid-season, but once Moore dominated AAA and the majors he clearly became the #1 pitching prospect. His stuff is just so much better than Teheran’s. Look, I pushed Teheran over Moore hard in the past, but at this point there shouldn’t even be a discussion. Moore may be the best pitching prospect I’ve seen since I started following prospects.
SSS
I find it curious that you so drastically changed your opinion in a span of a handful of starts.
by TKDC on Nov 25, 2011 1:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
11 starts is a handful? That's 1/3 of an MLB season
And I didn’t drastically change my opinion. I went from having the two neck and neck to having Moore clearly ahead. There was never any question that Moore had an advantage in stuff, but Teheran’s proximity to the bigs gave him and edge IMO. As soon as Moore surpassed Teheran in that category, there was absolutely no reasoning to Teheran ahead of him.
Its not a hot run when he just kept dominating like he has since 2007
He has far and away the best stuff in the minors. He dominated AAA and the majors just like everyone thought he would. You’re being a huge homer if you think Teheran is on his level. Its not even that close.
Aroldis Chapman has great stuff too
control is important, and Moore has had severe issues with his.
And I never said he was “on his level” so please cut out the personal attacks and insults. Unlike you, I’m not going to pass judgment one way or the other on such a limited sample size of their MLB innings. I’m not a scout, I haven’t seen these guys multiple times over several years, so I’m not in a position to judge them. And neither have you.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Chapman's stuff isn't close to Moore level
He throws hard, but that’s about it. His slider is not as good as Moore’s breaking ball and his change up isn’t even in the same league as Moore’s.
If you don’t want to be called a huge homer, stop acting like one. You’re trying to argue that Teheran has a case over Moore. He doesn’t. It isn’t even close. Of course neither of us is a professional scouts, but why don’t we actually listen to them. Scouting consensus has Moore easily above Teheran.
Ding ding ding
We have a winner! Though a “rational argument” is a low bar, this clearly qualifies.
by TKDC on Nov 25, 2011 1:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Except other than the age difference, the entire argument is untrue
Teheran posted a 3.06 FIP in AAA and a 5.87 in the majors. Moore posted a 2.62 in AA, a 2.06 in AAA, and a 2.17 in the majors. How can you claim that Teheran as well or better than Moore given those numbers? And how can you claim he did it at a higher level when Moore pitched at the same levels and did even better. This argument really breaks down to the fact the Rays are more conservative with pitchers, so they let Moore dominate AA for awhile. That just isn’t a rational argument for Teheran being better when Moore eventually made the jump to Teheran’s level and completely blew his numbers away.
I just hope people haven't been putting the idea of "Pitching to contact," in Teheran's head
I have a strange feeling that someone has told him that’s what he needs to be doing, and it might explain the big drop in his K rates at higher levels. But perhaps I’m just projecting.
What Teheran needs to be doing is working on throwing pitches which are hard to hit, to the point that even if a guy makes contact, it’s not going anywhere.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
I could see that
His K rates have decreased as he moved up the ladders, but I hope this isn’t true.
in his limited big league experience
Teheran has definitely pitched to contact. I’m sure he’ll figure things out as he gains more experience and his K rate should rise. We just need him and Beachy to both even out in turns of striking people out and conserving the number of pitches thrown.
by LEastCoastBears on Nov 26, 2011 2:53 AM EST up reply actions
Sample sizes...
You should probably acknowledge them.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Why?
He claimed Teheran performed as well or better at a higher level. As a whole, Moore clearly performed better, as his FIP at every level was better than Teheran’s FIP at AAA. Sample size has nothing to do with that. Moore also pitched at the same level for a smaller sample and did better there. I think that makes his claim look worse, but it really isn’t even necessary, because the first part already means his statement is untrue.
I’ve been more than willing to acknowledge that Teheran pitched more at the higher levels. I just don’t think we can hold the Rays development strategy against Moore, especially when he showed he had no problem dominating AAA and the majors once he was given the opportunity.
FIP is not an absolute measure of a pitcher's ability...
if it were, Tommy Glavine wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer, among several others who consistently outproduce their FIPs.
And it wasn’t a “development strategy”, it was allowing the guy to get over his control issues before moving him up the ladder. There was a big question mark that caused your so called “development strategy”, a question mark that can’t be definitively answered by a single strong season.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Ok, if you want to look at ERA, Moore wins there too
And you clearly aren’t familiar with the Rays developmental strategy. They do what they did with Moore with every one of their pitching prospects. They’re known for taking it incredibly slow. If Moore was in the Braves organization he would have made the AA jump later last season (after he had gone a few months with no control issues) and would have started in AAA this year. The Rays just don’t move their pitchers much in season unless they have to.
This argument fails...
Mainly because Moore didn’t experience a couple months without control issues until July-August, which still likely puts him in A+, with maybe a promotion to AA. He certainly wouldn’t have moved on to AAA in the Braves system until later on in the 2011 season.
The key, of course, was his ability to limit his BB rate. That didn’t happen in the timeframe you outlined above. His progression would have been very similar in either system.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 27, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
April was his only really bad month that year with control
May still wasn’t good, but he things were getting better. By June he was already down to a 3.2 BB/9. I think he would have gotten bumped up a level sometime in July once he maintained his control while further increasing his K rate. Obviously this is all conjecture, but that’s what I believe. Don’t think he would have spent too long in AA for the Braves if he had started there this year. Once he completely dominated the league in April and May, I think he would have clearly moved on to Gwinnett.
I’m not sure why you would think his progression would have been similar in either system. The Braves are clearly much more aggressive in their pitching prospect assignments than the Braves are. There is no way Teheran spends the season at AAA if he’s in the Rays system.
Better is a relative term. When the sample size doesn’t hold, the argument doesn’t hold. This is always true when using statistical analysis, especially regarding rate stats. This is rudimentary stuff…you really should know better, considering your proclaimed knowledge of baseball.
9 IP is not a justifiable sample size, so saying he performed better at the MLB level means very little. It’s not even close to a reasonable sample. He started one MLB game. Using FIP for a sample size of one start and a few relief appearances is pretty foolhardy. The stat is nowhere near reaching stabilization as a reliable sample.
The same is true of Moore’s AAA sample, although to a lesser degree. There’s so many more variables that need to occur before one can trust a sample. How many of these players, in AAA and MLB, has Moore faced on more than one occasion?? Very few, in all likelihood. Just like a pitcher has to have a different approach going through the lineup subsequently, he also has to have a different approach when playing the same team over and over again. That’s something that Moore has yet to do at higher levels.
With 145 IP in AAA, Teheran has likely experienced this at a higher level. Thus, his numbers will suffer as a result. Hitters adjust to pitchers, and pitchers have to readjust, and so forth.
Being a statistically-driven fellow, and knowing the process in which these statistics stabilize, I’d put more trust in a pitcher throwing a 3 FIP at AAA over 145 IP than I’d place in a 2 FIP @ 50 IP. That doesn’t make one better than the other, in and of itself, but there’s certainly an argument for it.
The problem is you’re going a step too far in evaluating the numbers. They aren’t apples to apples, or anything close. Until both players reach statistical stabilization, you can’t follow through with an evaluation based upon the numbers.
To be clear, I’m not arguing against the point you’re making. I’m saying you simply lack enough credible information to make that argument. The same is probably true on both sides, but at least anyone arguing Teheran has a pinch more statistical weight.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 27, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Read the conversation man!!!
You completely missed the point. He essentially claimed that Teheran performed better at AAA than Moore did at AA. Problem is that Moore clearly performed better at AA than Teheran did at AAA. That was the crux of the argument. We’re dealing with more than large enough sample sizes with those levels. The fact that Moore also performed better in AAA and the majors was just ancillary, thus why I didn’t feel the need to specifically mention the sample size, especially since the sample size is well known and was discussed elsewhere.
Sorry you just wasted all that time writing that post. At no point do you address actual beliefs I hold.
Teheran posted a 3.06 FIP in AAA and a 5.87 in the majors. Moore posted a 2.62 in AA, a 2.06 in AAA, and a 2.17 in the majors. How can you claim that Teheran as well or better than Moore given those numbers?
I’ve been addressing the fact that you used his AAA and MLB FIP since the beginning.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 28, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I presented them, I didn't "use" them
I didn’t argue that the AAA or MLB numbers proved anything. I’m not sure what your point is. My main point was that Moore clearly performed better as a whole over the course of the season than Teheran did.
Who are you saying claimed that?
and #s don’t = performing, especially at the higher level where you’d have a greater degree of difficulty.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
You said producing, not performing
And then threw in the kicker about it being at a higher level. Are you going to try and argue what you meant when you said “(Teheran) was producing as good or better,” you meant he was performing better because his numbers were almost as good at a higher level? So substituting that back into the initial comment we would get "he was performing better because his numbers were almost as good at a higher level at a higher level.
FIP certainly isn't the absolute measure of a pitcher
But then again he also bettered Teheran in ERA, K/9, BB/9, H/9, etc. In what way was Teheran as good or better than Moore?
incorrect on BB/9
removing AA, where Teheran would have posted much better numbers than he did in AAA. Teheran was also better in HR/9.
that’s all I got. I never said Moore wasn’t the superior prospect, but ignoring there was a reasonable argument for Teheran was ignoring reality. Again, his dominance despite being an under developed physically teenager often a year younger than every other player in those leagues, showing great stuff (maybe not Moore’s, but still strong), and in his career showing better command.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Incorrect on BB/9?
I’m not sure what numbers you’re looing at. Even if you want to compare their numbers for the full season, and not Moore in AA to Teheran in AAA, Moore still comes out ahead in BB/9. Teheran was better in HR/9, though the 4 HR in the bigs are a bit scary IMO, so I’ll freely give you that. Still not enough where I would consider what he did outproducing Moore (which was the original argument).
Clearly, we just disagree on what constitutes a reasonable argument. I still don’t see one for Teheran, as much as I’d like to. He’s way behind Moore on stuff (as is every other pitching prospect) and Moore was significantly more dominant and ended up doing it at the same level as Teheran. And again, this is leaving aside Trout and Harper who are generally considered to be ahead of Moore.
Just to finish up, I wouldn’t term Teheran’s stuff as great currently. Its good (and like I said elsewhere, probably better than CB implied in his writeup) and if the curve tightens up and becomes more consistent he could get into the very good to great level. Honestly though, he hasn’t really shown true “ace” (or elite) level stuff up to this point. He could certainly get there if he adds a 4th pitch or somehow really improves the curve, but its not something I’d bank on. Improving his command of his secondaries could certainly go a long way to making up for that though. I do think its important to note that command (especially of secondaries) is actually still a knock on Teheran. Keep in mind command and control are two very different things. Control is simply the ability to throw strikes, while command is the ability to consistently the pitch you want to the spot you want.
Moore comes out ahead thanks to the AA numbers
and going through a league a second and third time changes numbers. Moore never did that.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Right but your initial post implied better irrespective of level
Moore also comes out ahead if you look at AAA and MLB combined. The only place Teheran was better in BB/9 was just AAA and even then it was very close (2.99 to 3.08).
As for the going through leagues part I think you’re overrating it and also overstating the difference. Moore faced 7 of 9 SL teams at least twice, including facing 2 of them 3 times. Moore also faced 2 AAA teams twice. Teheran faced 8 of 13 IL teams at least twice, including facing one team 4 times and one team 5 times. So, all in all, Moore actually faced more minor league teams multiple times than Teheran did and faced the same number of teams more than 2 times (just didn’t get up to 4 or 5 starts against one team like Teheran).
I can't control what you imply on your own that isn't there or intended
and AA numbers are immaterial, unless you can let Teheran tear up a level he’s already proven he’s better than too inflating his overall numbers.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Please explain what you meant then
You said “(Teheran) was producing as good or better at a higher level than Moore.” The only time Teheran was at a higher level and producing was when he was in AAA and Moore was in AA. So the only rational way to read that statement is that Teheran produced as good or better in AAA than Moore did in AA. Can’t you just admit that your initial statement was incorrect?
If you can prove I made a mistake
Sure, I’ll go right for it.
And just to get it out of the way
I was wrong to bring up Luis Heredia. Whether you want to call it a strawman or reductio ad absurdum, it wasn’t called for and did nothing to further the discussion.
Fair enough
My initial statement should read differently. Teheran performing at a similar elite level, at a higher level against better competition.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 28, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, way to "admit" your mistake there
And no, that’s still clearly wrong. He didn’t perform at a similar level (he literally got beat in every single category but HR/9 and got beaten quite badly in some) and you’re completely ignoring the part where Moore in fact did throw over 60 innings at the same levels Teheran was at.
With that, I think I’m done with this thread.
You glossed over some stuff too
Like where Moore actually did post the lower BB rate between AAA and the majors than Teheran did.
Also, the part where you claimed Moore had an advantage because he didn’t have to face teams 2 or 3 times even though he faced teams twice more often than Teheran did and faced teams 3 times the exact same amount.
Moore 155 IP in AA and AAA: 210 K’s
Teheran 185 1/3 IP in AA and AAA: 161 K’s
Moore’s FIP in AA: 2.62 AAA: 2.02
Teheran’s FIP in AA 3.25 AAA 3.05
Where is the “producing as good or better at a higher level” argument coming?
And the scouting reports also favor Moore.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Ks are not the end all, be all of a pitcher
and FIP is highly influenced by that K rate.
And Teheran spent all year in AAA, dominating the league and being named their pitcher of the year. Moore had a hot run and has yet to prove he can have sustained success at the higher levels, or sustained control.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Moore had a hot run...
That’s been going on since 2008. He’s the best pitching prospect in baseball. Everyone except the biggest Braves homers knows it. His stuff blows away Teheran’s and he’s dominated to an extent that Teheran never has. Its just not close.
Hot run
with over 5 walks/9 in 2009, and near 4 last year. Yes, hot run. And if it were all about “stuff”, Aroldis Chapman would already be killing it. Craig Kimbrel has better “stuff” than Teheran, but that doesn’t mean he’ll have the better career either.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Still posted a better FIP that year than Teheran did this year
Chapman’s stuff isn’t on the level of Moore. He also only has 2 legit pitches which means it will be almost impossible for him to start.
Comparing starters to relievers is just dumb.
We're talking about "stuff"
so no, it’s not. A pitcher’s “stuff”, whatever the hell that means, is what it is, starter or relief.
And FIP is heavily K influenced. It favors a high K rate, poor control pitcher like Moore vs others.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Except for the part where pitchers stuff improves in short stints
You know, like when they come out of the BP.
Pretty much
Moore averaged 95.7 on his fastball in the bigs and that includes some starts. His breaking is similarly good and he has an amazing change, while Craig possesses nothing.
Not sure what this has to do with stuff playing up in short stints.
Walks (3) and HR’s (13) are weighted more than K’s (2) in the FIP formula.
So poor walk rates and HR rates are reflected in FIP.
In the case of Moore, he has average control rates, above average HR rates and elite K rates.
Pitchers with elite K rates tend to have wild control sometimes. Randy Johnson is an example.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
If Teheran were a GB pitcher I’d defend the declining K rate with the “he is pitching to contact” argument. He is not, so the decline in K’s is concerning.
Moore spent the whole year in AA, AAA, the majors and the postseason proving he is the best. Joe Maddon would have never put Teheran as his number 1 starter against Texas. That’s not a hot run, that’s a kid who is poised enough for the big stage.
On the other side, Teheran looked nervous, erratic, without command of his pitches and hittable in all his appearences.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I’ll agree 100% that Teheran has not dominated in any of his outing (and in fact lose out the starting role in September to Randall Delgado). However, with his younger age and his stuff, Teheran does still have as high of a ceiling as Matt Moore and that is often what determines the ranking of prospects.
I know some of us are probably a bit bummed (particularly me who traveled up to Philly just to see Teheran make his big league debut) that Teheran did not dominate in his first outing, the same way that Strasburg did. Nevertheless, I’m buying into the hype that Teheran will develop into one of those legit ace type in a few years.
by LEastCoastBears on Nov 26, 2011 2:56 AM EST up reply actions
I just don't see Teheran having Moore upside
Moore throws with significantly more velocity (from the left side no less), has a change that is every bit as good as Teheran’s, and has a breaking ball that is just way better than anything Teheran has ever shown (and this is coming from someone who thinks Teheran’s curve gets underrated at times, it just doesn’t flash plus-plus, which is where Moore’s is consistently).
Which is in itself ridiculous. I’d trade Teheran for Bryce Harper straight up without blinking. And I’d trade Moore for Bryce Harper straight up too.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
UGH
Wish I put all of this in one post.
But who cares if Delgado is 1 SPOT ahead of Viazcaino is that really worth getting upset about?
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Shoot me in the face why didn't I do this all in one?
But I’d put Delgado ahead of Vizzy too only because Delgado will be a starter and Vizzy could end up in the bullpen
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
This
If Vizcaino is going to end up as a reliever, I’d put him down below Gilmartin and Bethancourt, and maybe even Salcedo. He carries much less value like that.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
But he's not a relief pitcher yet
he may in a year from now. But I full expect him to spend the vast majority of this season starting in AAA, and starting until he proves he shouldn’t.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I hope so
I hope the Braves don’t decide that, if he can help them in the bullpen in 2012, then he deserves to be there. That would be an extremely counter-productive decision, and it would essentially give him the Neftali Feliz career path. Useful for a while, until we add one more dominant reliever and he becomes just another guy.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
We have so many options, I can't see a reason to use him in the pen this year unless injuries hit
if Kimbrel faltered last year and Venters blew out his elbow in September, then maybe. But as it is, we’ve got a healthy back end of Kimbrel, Venters, and EOF. Add Medlen to that mix, and Vizcaino isn’t needed with the high leverage outings already covered by great arms. Add Marek to the mix, and Cristhian Martinez, Varvaro, Hoover, etc, there’s just no reason to convert him yet, when those guys can more than handle the job, and you still see whether or not he can develop the durability and 3rd pitch needed to be an effective starter.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Sans Marek
I tend to agree with you on thinking that the Braves should keep Vizzy in AAA as a starter. If there is one things the Braves know it’s pitching so if the game plan is to go with him in the bullpen I’ll get on board.
Marek is subtracted from you list of pen options though: " The recovery time for Tommy John is anywhere from 12 to 18 months, so even under the best of circumstances Marek won’t be back until the middle of May. Even if he can come back that quickly, it usually takes a full year of pitching before a pitcher feels like himself again, so the Braves will have to look forward to 2013, when he’ll be 29 years old, to see if Marek can make good on his potential."
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 25, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
hey now
Feliz is going to start next year…but I agree with you
Wait and see
I’m not sure Nathan can take the job over, and they might shift Feliz back before too long.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I feel like they said something 2 years ago.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
^something to that extent
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Going to...
yes. Whether that holds throughout the year is what I’m saying. And as Bronn says, they’ve said that before and it didn’t happen.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
true
I feel like they said something 2 years ago.
Bronn isn’t sure, but I understand where he’s coming from.
After his rookie year, they said he was going to start
kind of like the Cardinals did with Wainwright. It didn’t last.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
It’s not getting upset about. It’s that this blog is doing a bad analisys on Braves prospects.
No baseball analyst will say Delgado has better stuff than Vizcaino. Not Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein, Marc Hulet, John Sickels, Keith Law, etc
Delgado was mediocre in 2011 in AA (3.80 FIP) AAA (4.81 FIP) and the majors (5.23 FIP).
While Vizcaino was clearly better in AA (2.86 FIP).
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
You only come over here to tell people they are doing a bad job… go away and start your own blog that does it the right way, if you are correct everyone will follow and your narcissism can be further fed.
Its a prospect list, there is no right way and wrong way, there are differences of opinion and thats what makes it interesting. You are the one doing the bad analysis, becuase you assume one way is correct and another isn’t
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
That’s the way I feel, and if you don’t like my posts, you shouldn’t read them.
And I’m not assuming. Every respected prospect analyst says Vizcaino is way better than Delgado.
If you want to keep thinking ERA is the best indicator to evaluate pitchers, that’s your issue not mine. I’m just pointing that it’s wrong, and not because I’m a self absorbed narcicist. It’s because pages like BPro, Fangraphs, THT and Tango’s blog have discovered it’s not the best way.
This article says Delgado was the best pitcher of the staff in September, which is clearly not right.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
You're overlooking a lot
I don’t think the writers at TC are so naive as to think that Randall Delgado has better stuff than Vizcaino. There are, however, good reasons that Vizcaino is behind Delgado on the prospect chart.
1) Health. Delgado has been very healthy, with very few injury concerns, and has held up while throwing 120 innings three seasons ago, 160 innings two seasons ago, and last year, he threw 174 innings without blowing out his arm or elbow. Vizcaino has had two significant injury problems, and the Braves are being very careful to limit his innings, such that he’s only maxed out at 114 innings in one season.
2) Role. It’s uncertain if Vizcaino is going to remain a starter. A guy who can be an average starting pitcher will always have more value than an elite reliever. Always. Randall Delgado is slotted in as a starting pitcher, with few doubts about his ability. If he can give you 200 innings of a 4.00 FIP, that’s more valuable than 70 innings of a 2.00 FIP. And Delgado has the upside to be better than a 4.00 FIP.
3) Development-as a starter, at least. Randall Delgado has experience starting at both AAA and the majors. Vizcaino, as a starter, only made it up to AA. Delgado is a bit closer to be a major league starting pitcher than Vizcaino is.
Is that enough to make up the difference in their raw abilities? A little bit of certainty is worth a lot relative to the amount of potential. I can understand putting Delgado ahead of Vizcaino, but I’d make it a coinflip.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Yes, Vizcaino has better stuff, at this point. But he also has injury question marks that Delgado doesn’t have. There is a strong chance that Vizcaino doesn’t make it as a starter and becomes a dominant reliever, which means he won’t have the same impact had a good starter.
by dlkinser86 on Nov 25, 2011 5:26 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I agree with you that vizcaino is a better pitcher than delgado and he is closer to teheran in talent than randall but these lists are about long term value and ability to reach it. Vizcaino looks like he is going to be in the pen and for me that makes him the third best pitching prospect in our org.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
by yondaime4 on Nov 26, 2011 4:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I've come around some on Delgado
His stuff was better than I expected when he made his debut. Moved him up to neck and neck with Viz IMO. Delgado is clearly the better bet to stick as a starter, but Vizcaino just has so much upside if his change can continue to progress.
Delgado’s command still worries the heck out of me. I disagree with CB that Delgado tries to get too fine with his pitches. He just has starts where he can’t put the ball close to his aiming point. With his delivery, it may be something that he just always struggles with. Unless he makes strides with it, I’m not sure I can see him being more than a #3 guy.
Watched everyone of Delgado's MLB starts and saw most of Vizcaino's bullpen appearances
That combined with all the scouting reports I’ve seen on both guys is what leads me to my opinions.
Why do you ask?
was just curious
and because I don’t see how seeing just a small sample of innings on each qualifies you to make the definitive statements you have made on their stuff, abilities, etc.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
So it wasn't because you were curious,
You were just hoping to undermine my opinion and say you haven’t seen them enough. That might make sense if my opinion was an outlier, but its right in line with what every single outlet is saying. Why do you think what I’m saying about their stuff is incorrect?
Because you haven't seen "their stuff" except on a small sample
if you had seen them numerous times in the minors, I’d have trusted your opinion on them more than the small samples you’ve witnesses. Hence “curious”.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
They may be incorrect projecting guys
They aren’t going to be incorrect about where guy’s stuff currently stands
Except its based on what all the scouts who have seen them said
Pretty sure in total scouts have seen them more than a couple days here and there.
So you've read what "all the scouts who have seen them said"
or just Sickels, Law, and BA?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Because those guys only talk to one scout each?
I’ve seen what they have to say, along with people who watched them a lot once they reached AAA who post on minorleagueball.
he didn't say best pitching prospect in baseball
he said arugably the best PROSPECT in baseball.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 25, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Which is also not true. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Matt Moore are way ahead.
Now, if they had said, best RHP prospect in baseball…….. maybe.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
that's a giant maybe
as Shelby Miller has passed him on many lists.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 26, 2011 7:11 AM EST up reply actions
Great job on these CB, Matt and Gondeee.
Really enjoyed them.
Our pitching depth is tremendous. Our hitters remain to be pretty weak, but it’s still tough to beat our pitchers.
To everyone above acting like they’re a professional scout or something: go to hell and stop complaining and nitpicking.
by Scott Coleman on Nov 25, 2011 1:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Our hitters remain to be pretty weak
What do you mean? Yes, Salcedo might be our only true impact bat but we have very nice depth.
IMO, we have a few guys with a lot of upside, but we don’t have anyone that projects to be a star that’ll hit MLB within the next 2 or 3 years. Maybe Terdo of Pastornicky surprise everyone, but they’re about our only hope in 2012 or 2013.
Quantity, not quality, and I say that as someone who’s a huge fan of what I’ve seen of Bethancourt, Salcedo, Terdo, etc.
by Scott Coleman on Nov 25, 2011 2:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
LOL
really?
Drury and Terd and Betan might tell you that you’re a Mets fan
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 25, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry I thought the point of comments was to discuss the article
I guess you’re only allowed to discuss if you agree?
It is, but all of the complaining and nitpicking gets annoying. You try spending a ton of time on something just for a few people to go through it and pick at every little thing.
by Scott Coleman on Nov 25, 2011 2:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Coke gives me bad gas. Can I get a Dr. Pepper instead?
by Scott Coleman on Nov 25, 2011 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
You can disagree without acting as everyone else is an idiot.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Go read your comments above again
you are doing all 3, disagreeing, pointing out your opinion to prove your point, and acting like anyone who disagrees with your impenetrable knowledge on the issue is an idiot.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
My impenetrable knowledge?
I’m mostly relying on what the people paid to scouts these kids say. And I’m calling out people who disagree without any evidence other than “Look at the ages!!!”
Ages, and
control consistently shown over several years, and producing at a higher level over the course of a full season instead ~ 60 innings.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Control consistency that hasn't happened in well over a year
And being held back by an organizational philosophy.
Also, between the two of you...
I’m gonna wager cb has seen a helluva lot more of both Teheran and Moore than you have, and maybe some of these experts whose opinion you are relying on to form your own.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Yes I'm sure CB has seen Moore more than the entirety of the scouting world
Not to mention he clearly is much better at assessing pitchers than professional scouts.
Also, unless CB is regularly going to Mississipi, Mobile, or Durham, I’m not really sure when he got so many chances to see Moore.
Mobile should be Montgomery
And I’m not even sure if Moore pitched @ Mississippi this year. I know he didn’t from the start of June onward.
Making an argument that he deserves to be higher than a guy who already played at high-A based solely on MLB readiness makes absolutely no sense.
Yes and the point is there is not a rational argument for Teheran over Moore
Well hey let’s make Luis Heredia #1 then
He’s the best pitching prospect in baseball. Everyone except the biggest Braves homers knows it.
You’re definitely flirting with a fine edge, at the very least.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Huh?
First one pointed out the lack of logic in the post. No inference that the guy was an idiot, just that I didn’t get the logic.
Second is purely an opinion. I was disagreeing with CB’s post and added in the rational part because obviously a non-rational argument can always be made.
Third was maybe too far…just wanted to point out the flaw in putting too much emphasis on pitcher age.
Fourth is basically a statement of fact. I haven’t seen anyone else put Teheran over Moore this offseason.
Bronn is right
You have an insulting and demeaning style towards anyone who disagrees with you. And the worst thing is, you deny that you do that. It’s the calling card of a narcissist.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Let me fix that for you...
You have an insulting and demeaning style towards anyone who disagrees with you largely established facts.
I’ll demean posts that are clearly incorrect and could be seen to be incorrect if the least bit or research had been done.
Projecting prospect futures
is about as far from “largely established facts” as you can possibly get. So how about demeaning your own post since that’s “clearly incorrect”.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 27, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
That Moore clearly has way better stuff than Teheran is established fact
That Moore is the consensus best pitching prospect is an established fact. That doesn’t mean he will definitely be the best pitcher from this prospect class, but it does mean that as a whole the baseball world sees him as the best bet.
Honestly, we’re only tangentially arguing about who will be the best MLB player. I wouldn’t be right if I ranked Terdoslavich #1 and he ended up the best player from this group. I would be lucky because there is nothing up to this point that gave me a rational reason to rank him that high. That’s basically my point on Moore-Teheran. I certainly hope that Teheran will be better, but I’m reasonable enough to know that Moore is clearly the better bet. I’d trade Teheran straight up for Moore in a heartbeat. I would hope everyone else here is reasonable enough that they would do the same.
That one could make a rational argument for Teheran...
is also established fact. If we’re going with a multitude of opinions as “fact”, especially considering most of those who list Moore as “the consensus best pitching prospect” long had Teheran way above him.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 27, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
I've yet to see a single rational argument for Teheran
Let’s see Moore has better stuff, performed better overall, performed better at the same levels, dominated at the MLB level, not sure what else there is. Basically, the only thing you can say is that Teheran is younger, but we’re talking about pitchers, not hitters. Pitchers don’t progress linearly like hitters do. Being young isn’t much of an advantage. Unless you want to project that Teheran is going to add 3-4 MPH to his fastball and add either another plus pitch or get his curve to plus-plus level (which he’s never shown an ability to do in the past), there is no reason to think he will ever have Moore’s stuff, even though he’s currently younger.
And where are you getting the idea that people long had Teheran way above Moore? Moore actually ranked higher on BA’s pre-2010 list than Teheran did (#35 to #51) and was just 10 spots lower this past offseason (#15 to #5). Neither was on a BA list prior to those two lists. So where are you pulling this “fact” from?
No, the only thing you say is younger
Teheran has also shown better control over his career, and has more than just 60 innings above AA to his record. But keep ignoring the other aspects in his favor, and focus just on Moore’s “stuff” and excellent last season (the only season where he’d be rated better than Teheran).
And yes, it’s perfectly reasonable to suggest as Teheran physically matures and adds weight to his frame, he adds a couple MPH to his heater. I assume you were naturally stronger at 24 than you were at 20, as was just about everyone else on the planet barring injury. He might also develop improved control, and improve his secondary pitches, something I assume Moore has also done as he went from 20 to 22.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Did you read my post?
Did you really just say that this is the only season Moore would be ahead of Teheran immediately after I pointed out how Moore ranked higher 2 years ago? The only time Teheran has ever ranked ahead of Moore was following last season. Heck, even at midseason this year, Moore ranked higher on both BA’s list and Law’s list. But yes, keep telling yourself its Moore’s small sample at AAA and the majors that has moved him ahead of Teheran.
If you think its reasonable to rank any pitching prospect as if he will add velocity, than you just don’t get pitching prospects. As a whole, pitchers lose velocity as they age. Heck, most guys come up throwing harder in the minors than they end up throwing in the majors. If you think its reasonable to assume that Teheran will add 3 MPH to his fastball just because he’s younger, this isn’t even worth discussing. That’s just not how pitching works. Not to mention that strength has very little to do with throwing a baseball hard. Strength may help you hold velocity later into games, but it is going to do little to help your max velocity.
And you just don’t make assumptions that guys are going to improve their pitches (control sure, but control isn’t going to allow Teheran to make up for Moore’s better stuff). Like I said, pitchers don’t improve linearly. Some guys add news pitches that turn out great (see Hanson’s and Beachy’s sliders), other guys have essentially the same stuff at 26 that they had at 21 (Jurrjens). The fact that Moore improved his control (honestly his stuff was always elite, though his change is more consistent now) doesn’t mean that Teheran will. You have to give Moore the edge because he already did, while you’re just assuming Teheran will.
And this is of course been leaving aside Harper and Trout
Probably the 2 best hitting prospect in recent memory that are good bets to both rank ahead of Moore. I can’t even begin to see an argument for Teheran over those two, but its not necessarily worth discussing since its there is so much subjectivity in comparing hitters to pitchers.
Now you get it...
there is a ton of subjectivity to these things. Saying Teheran would be the best prospect might be a very minority opinion, but there is a rational argument for it not only using age, but also his immense success at that young age at every level he’s played (often being over a year younger than every other player in the leagues he was in).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Its not just a very minority opinion
Its literally an opinion that I haven’t seen a single other person voice. Harper and Trout are 2 of the best position prospects we’ve seen. Trout’s prospect status is nearly at the level Andruw Jones was after 1996. And he isn’t even the consensus #1 prospect in baseball because we have a generational prospect in Harper that is seen as similar to ARod and Griffey in terms of how good of a prospect he is at such a young age. Throw in a pitching prospect like Moore that is as good as anyone not named Strasburg as a prospect, and I just don’t see anyone going for Teheran.
I get that Teheran has performed great at high levels of the minors at a young age. The problem is that ARL for pitchers is much less meaningful than ARL for hitters. While its certainly a good sign that Teheran did so well at a young age, it doesn’t mean as much as Freeman doing well at AAA last year because of the nature’s of the positions and their aging curves.
I really hate this thread, because it is forcing me to argue against Teheran, who is a prospect I really like. I’ve been his biggest supporter over at minorleagueball. If anything, I’ve been called a homer because of how highly I think of him. There just isn’t an argument for him over Moore at this point. I wish there was, but there isn’t.
nixa, you have repeatedly stated your opinions as being fact, and you have dismissed all arguments to the contrary out of hand, without actually addressing any of them. It’s too bad that TC doesn’t support killfiles, because you’d be in mine. The thing is, I’d probably agree with you on Moore, but your conversational style here has been so confrontational and insulting that it makes me want to disprove you just because you’ve been such a jerk. I intend to ignore your posts from here on.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
What arguments haven't I addressed?
And which opinions of mine have I stated as fact? I’ve certainly stated facts about the opinions of others with regards to prospects, but I’m not exactly sure when I’ve done anything of the sort with my own opinion.
And am I supposed to care whether or not you ignore my posts? You already told me you thought I was being a jerk before, two posts after someone tried to come up with examples of exactly that and pretty much failed. Sorry for pointing out when people are clearly incorrect and/or spreading false information.
With you throwing out the personal insult
I follow prospects closely. I’ve simply been giving my dissenting opinion when its comes to these discussions. If people try and tell me wrong, I’m going to defend my position. I’m not going out of my way to be nice about it. If that comes across as me being a douche, not sure what to do about it.
But you don't follow prospects closely
you follow people who follow prospects, but don’t personally do any of the following or viewing before they reach the bigs.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
That is not true at all
I do follow prospects myself, including viewing them as much as I can. I also realize that there are professionals that are better at this than I am who get to see these players a lot more than I do. For those reasons, I pay attention to what they have to say, and try and incorporate into my evaluation of particular prospects. Are you suggesting it would be better for me to ignore what those professionals have to say?
Not at all
I said I saw every one of Delgado’s starts at the MLB level. He didn’t spend long at AAA and MiLB.com generally only televises AAA games. I do try and watch guys in AAA when I get a chance.
I also simply try and watch video of a guy when I can’t get a whole start/game. Obviously you can’t learn as much as you could watching a start, but you can pick up a lot with regards to mechanics and what not on video. If you can combine video of mechanics with accurate reports on stuff as well as stats and you can get a pretty good feel for a pitcher.
You literally just said everyone
Now we’re just talking about Delgado? And you’re ignoring the part where I watch video of these prospects, which isn’t something that everyone else around here does.
Sorry, I can’t really do anything about the fact that only AAA games are available to be watched. I try to do what I can to learn about these guys in spite of that fact. That’s clearly not something that everyone else around here is doing.
Thank you Scott
That needed to be said.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Elite pitching prospects don't pitch many innings in AAA
Pitcher / IP
Tim Lincecum 31
Madison Bumgarner 82 2/3
Tommy Hanson 66 1/3
Matt Latos 0
Clayton Kershaw 0
Ubaldo Jimenez 103
Jon Lester 71 2/3
Matt Moore 52 2/3
Mike Minor 187 2/3
Brandon Beachy 45 2/3
David Price 52 1/3
Jeremy Hellickson 175
Brett Anderson 13 1/3
Michael Pineda 62 1/3
Alexi Ogando 66 2/3
Stephen Strasburg 33 1/3
Jordan Zimmermann 5 1/3
Matt Garza 92
Johnny Cueto 22
Yonani Gallardo 93 1/3
Jaime García 71
Julio Teheran 144 2/3
Average: 67 IP
So, saying Moore is just a mirage because he pitched 53 innings in AAA is a fallacy. That’s not a hot run. It’s proof that they guy is too good for that level.
by Alvaro Andrés P Varela on Nov 25, 2011 3:35 PM EST reply actions
Ubaldo Jimenez 103
and look how well that turned out after 6 weeks.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 25, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Can we put a moratorium on the usage of “strawman” for the rest of the off-season?
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Do you mean the word, or actually using straw man arguments?
Personally, people would not use the word if not for the actual presence of straw man arguments. Let’s stop using those.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Yea I understand, and in a perfect world that would be great. But it’s gotten to the point that saying that’s a strawman becomes a strawman argument.
I think we should explain why a certain post or point is irrelevant/misleading instead of just dropping “strawman” on the argument.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
I don't have the heart...
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Nov 25, 2011 8:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What about
red herring fallacies. I submit that red herrings are admissible because they remind me of delicious seafood.
Who is LeBron, and where is Miami?
by Kineticist on Nov 25, 2011 10:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I, for one,
think these rankings should take into account the prospects name. Sean Gilmartin just sounds like a major league baseball player
Who is LeBron, and where is Miami?
by Kineticist on Nov 25, 2011 8:08 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Terdoslavich would have been first then.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
Yeah spot on
withon with Terdo. Pretty sure Yohan Flande would be dead last on name alone
Who is LeBron, and where is Miami?
by Kineticist on Nov 25, 2011 8:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sorry for typos.
A virtual keyboard on a 4’ screen is not the easiest interface to transverse, but you guys get what I was saying
Who is LeBron, and where is Miami?
by Kineticist on Nov 25, 2011 10:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Just saw a new one.... Zelous Wheeler
That’s the name of a third baseman if ever I’ve heard one (3B, Brewers org).
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Wonderful Monds was a great one back in the day.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
He demands his full name
Wonderful Terrific Monds III.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 25, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Had to google that one
Who in their right mind would name a child that; and further, who would choose to keep that name going 3 generations
Who is LeBron, and where is Miami?
by Kineticist on Nov 25, 2011 11:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I like that name better than former Georgia Tech running back
Immaculate Perfection Harris. Or his brother, Supreme Justice Harris.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 26, 2011 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Wow. Those are some BAD ASS names.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
Things that should be taken into consideration about the way we compile our list:
1. We compiled this list 2 months ago before any of the other professional prospectors had put out their lists because we like to have our own opinion without having too much outside influence.
2. Our final list is an average of cbwilks, gondeee and my lists. So we get three different views on list making that go into this. Which again is why we do it like this.
We don’t claim to be professionals, just Braves fans that do this in their spare time. But we enjoy doing it for you guys and love to hear all the responses good and bad.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
No need for explanation.
I thoroughly enjoy these rankings. I put more stock in our lists than some ESPN writer’s list
Who is LeBron, and where is Miami?
by Kineticist on Nov 25, 2011 8:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well the ESPN guy’s like Law do get to talk to scouts and what not but even they don’t get to see all the prospects. I got to see about half the prospects on the list this season which is high for me actually just because it is hard to mix baseball trips with a full time job a lot of times. I have to rely on stats more than I would like though I consider myself more of a scouting oriented person, but you take what you have. One guy I ranked lower than everyone else was Andrelton Simmons. I put him just outside the top 10 because I’m still not sure he has enough bat to stick, but I think it worked out well that he and Pastornicky ended up right next to each other in the final rankings because they are completely different players but I think have similar current value to the major league team.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
Agree
What freaking difference does it make if #4 might be #6. These lists give us the averaged opinion of 3 guys whose opinion I respect. The skinny, the good, the bad and ETA are info and opinion we otherwise would not have. Not only are these lists informative, they are entertaining.
I appreciate the effort.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Thanks for your hard work yonda
gondee should double, nay, quadruple, your salary.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Gentleman,
Thanks so much for taking the time to put these lists together! This is one of my favorite parts of TC. Next, wasn’t Monds middle name Terrific? Lastly, to those with the borderline insulting comments and the this column sucks ass, etc, etc. GROW UP! If you don’t like it and want to disagree fine, don’t be condescending and insulting though.
by jdmarine on Nov 25, 2011 11:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions
What I don’t get is how people disagree with a statement that begins with “arguably.” Prospect evaluation is a very imprecise science so how people can say that there is an objectively number 1 prospect is really silly. Of course you could make an argument that Teheran is the top prospect in baseball.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Arguably, everything you just wrote was written in Klingon.
:D
/me is glad he was off eating turkey and hanging with his family instead of being in this thread when it all went down…
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Yea I’ve been away recently. My first response after reading several threads that degenerated similarly was “Damn, they need baseball as much as I do…”
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Good Jobs
I think Vizcaino ends up being a reliever, but let’s hope he can stay healthy. Thanks.
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