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Around SBN: An Indy 500 Rookie's Impressions

Atlanta Braves 2012 Top 25 Prospects: 6-10

Edward Salcedo has the potential to be a star, but is very unrefined.

Today we continue Talking Chop's countdown of the top 25 prospects in the Braves organization. The top 25 are selected by yondaime14, gondeee, and myself each putting together our own lists, then averaging the three lists together.

6. Edward Salcedo, 3B
The Skinny:
  Top international signee struggled in his pro debut in 2010, then started strong with Rome in 2011 before fading down the stretch. Originally a shortstop but struggled with errors, forcing a move to third base, which hasn't helped keep his errors down.
The Good:
  Huge, strong frame with plenty of room to fill out and add power. Athletic and quick. Great baseball instincts. Soft hands and strong throwing arm. Has the physical skills to play any position on the field. Hard worker and natural leader. Good, opportunistic baserunner. Only 20 years old.
The Bad:
  Inconsistent at the plate. Swing gets long and occasionally struggles to make contact. Often too aggressive, leading to strikeouts and lack of walks. Less experienced than most 20 year olds. Consistently makes mental errors in the field.
...in a perfect world...
Salcedo harnesses his potential, finds a defensive home, and develops into an All-Star caliber middle of the order hitter.
ETA:
  2014. The Braves will be patient with Salcedo, and he'll move up the ladder one rung at a time.

7. Zeke Spruill, RHP
The Skinny:
  After a disappointing 2010 that saw him miss half the season after breaking his hand punching a wall in frustration, Spruill had a fantastic rebound in 2011, with a strong showing at Lynchburg followed by an equally impressive run at Mississippi.
The Good:
  Big bodied, strong and durable. Has all the potential to be a workhorse. Tossed 6 complete games in 2011. Classic pitcher's body. Overcame immaturity and thrived this season. Smart pitcher who uses his fastball to set up his secondary pitches. Allows his defense to work behind him. Pitches better than his stuff.
The Bad:
History of immaturity, including a disciplinary demotion in 2009 and wasted his 2010 season by breaking his own hand. Stuff is only average.
...in a perfect world...
Spruill becomes a middle of the rotation innings eater and a solid Major League starter.
ETA:
2013. He'll return to Mississippi to start 2012, and there's a good chance he could make his Major League debut later in the year.

Star-divide

8. Tyler Patornicky, SS
The Skinny:
  Shortstop acquired in the Yunel Escobar-Alex Gonzalez trade who had an All-Star season with Mississippi before catching fire in a month long trial at Gwinnett.
The Good:
  Absolute baseball rat. Hard worker and a natural leader. Quick, above average athlete. Soft hands, quick actions, and great range in the field. Fast baserunner with above average instincts. High contact hitter who is willing to sacrifice himself. Doesn't try to do more than he's capable of at the plate. Hard to strike out.
The Bad:
  Arm is average at best, leading to questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. Must get better at taking walks to be an effective top of the order hitter. Little to no power. Needs to drive the ball with more authority. Injuries have cost him the last few weeks of each of his last 2 seasons.
...in a perfect world...
Pastornicky becomes a solid number 2 hitter in the order and an average defensive shortstop. In a less perfect world he becomes a solid number 2 hitter and an above average defensive second baseman.
ETA:
2012. There are indications Pastornicky could be given a chance to win Atlanta's shortstop job out of Spring Training. Even if he doesn't, he should contribute in the Majors in some way this season.

9. Andrelton Simmons, SS
The Skinny:
  Drafted as a pitcher, but signed as a shortstop. Had a phenomenal year for Lynchburg, winning the Carolina League batting title while hitting 35 doubles and stealing 26 bases.
The Good:
  Insanely good fielder with a cannon for an arm. Will perennially compete for Gold Glove awards. Quick, flexible, and extremely athletic. Fast baserunner. High contact hitter. Hard to strike out. Whip-like bat speed. Hard worker who takes coaching well.
The Bad:
  Skinny frame leads to questions about his ability to drive the ball at higher levels. Needs to learn how to take walks. Has to become a better base stealer to use his speed effectively. Little to no power. Less experienced than most 22 year olds.
...in a perfect world...
Simmons becomes a perennial Gold Glover at shortstop who provides adequate offensive value.
ETA:
Late 2013. He'll go to Mississippi to start 2012, which will be his biggest test as a professional. If he passes it, he'll move up quickly.

10. Carlos Perez, LHP
The Skinny:
  A freak injury in his non-throwing shoulder cut short his sterling 2010 season, and he struggled with inconsistency for much of 2011 with Rome.
The Good:
  Outstanding stuff with movement. Low 90s fastball that is likely to gain velocity as he gets stronger. Promising secondary pitchers that are advanced for his age. Lanky, whipping arm action with plenty of deception. Only 20 years old. Long, lean frame with plenty of room to add muscle.
The Bad:
  Lacks control. Has trouble repeating delivery, which contributes to control problems. Hasn't shown durability and will need to add strength to his frame to gain it. Needs a better mental approach to pitching.
...in a perfect world...
Perez harnesses his massive potential and becomes a classic top of the rotation lefty.
ETA:
2015. The Braves will be patient with him as he moves up a level at a time. Likely to start 2012 with Lynchburg, but he may have to head back to Rome to start the year.

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Salcedo in 2014? Isn’t that a bit early from all indications of his progress? I guess it’s possible and you’d have more of a clue than I.

"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall

by jwrocks on Nov 24, 2011 9:27 AM EST reply actions  

The ETAs are my least favorite part of this. I have no clue really.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 24, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Going to be interesting to see who is going to be our long-term answer at short. Truth be told, I’m thinking it will be Simmons. I think he will turn out to be more suitable to SS and more durable. If that happens, it’ll be interesting to see what we do with Pastornicky — 3B? Outfield? Trade?

"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt

by Cornutt on Nov 24, 2011 9:48 AM EST reply actions  

Would we move Uggla to LF if Pastornicky’s bat is useful enough?

Could Uggla play 3B?

by Broccoman on Nov 24, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

My guess would be LF no, 3B maybe.

"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt

by Cornutt on Nov 24, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Does uggla have the arm for 3rd base

or left field for that matter. He doesn’t look like he could throw the ball very far with those short but large arms

I <3 Runz

by JHey1212 on Nov 24, 2011 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure

I was thinking of it more in terms of range. You don’t really have to cover a lot of ground at 3B.

"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt

by Cornutt on Nov 24, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Utility man

That’s what he projects as regardless of whether Simmons works out or not

by nixa37 on Nov 24, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Feel that Tyler's "perfect world" is off

"What up? We're three cool guys looking for other cool guys who wanna hang out in our party mansion. Nothing sexual. Dudes in good shape encouraged. If you're fat, you should be able to find humor in the little things." Again, NOTHING SEXUAL

"I'd rather jerk off a tiger in a phone booth than draft Cam"
-Mel Kiper, Jr.

you guys are like a bunch of pirahnas
by chop goes da weazel on Mar 31, 2011 12:32 PM PDT

by MikeTrain on Nov 24, 2011 11:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

And we've officially jumped the shark

I’ve already made my thoughts on Pastornicky v. Simmons clear, but putting him behind Spruill is just ridiculous. A guy who has an upside of a back of the rotation starter with a huge risk of never even making the bigs because of his mediocre stuff ahead of a potential 4 WAR SS who is basically a sure thing to have value in the majors because of his ability to play plus defense at SS? How in the world does that make any sense? Simmons has the higher floor and the higher ceiling. There’s a reason he checked in at #4 on the BA’s Carolina League top 20 while Spruill fell down to #11.

Salcedo is also too high IMO. His ranking by Braves fans is based almost entirely on his big signing bonus. He’s proven nothing in his time in the minors and the reports on his tools have been disappointing at best. This is a guy who couldn’t even manage to crack the SAL top 20 prospect list, but you’re ranking him ahead of the #4 prospect in the Carolina League? I just have no idea where this love is coming from. His upside is Edward Encarnacion with a better glove.

by nixa37 on Nov 24, 2011 12:40 PM EST reply actions  

Time will tell.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 24, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, BA ranking a guy highly doesn’t mean much. Here’s a short look at a few guys they’ve had ranked highly on Braves lists over the years:

01- #2 Matt McClendon
02 – #4 Brett Evert, #5 Carlos Duran
03 – #4 Bubba Nelson
04 – #3 Bubba Nelson
05 – #5 Anthony Lerew, #6 Jake Stevens

Baseball America is a great resource, but thy whiff on guys as much as anyone else.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 24, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Did I quote anything about team top 10s?

My point was that observers from their own leagues (the ones the BA guys listen to when making the league rankings) clearly disagree with you in a huge way. I take the team rankings a lot less seriously as they are based in large part on information the team is putting out to the guy doing the ranking.

 I also think its interesting to note that you only looked at lists from 2005 and before. I think its quite clear that prospect rankings the past few years have improved considerably over where they were previously (just look at the old top 100s compared to the newer ones), due in no small part to the proliferation of prospect video.

by nixa37 on Nov 24, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I took the ones from before 2005 I’ll admit because I had quick access to them, but also because I think 6 years is a good amount of time to be able to tell if a guy has panned out. Even 3 years is too short an amount of time to tell about a guy, so anything after 08 wouldn’t be that relevant anyway.

And of course the guys ranking a league are going to be more impressed by the guys playing well in the league. If you ask managers in coaches who the best prospects in a league are they’ll tell you the guys who’ve performed the best, but those aren’t necessarily the top prospects. The people who are watching a specific league only don’t really have much perspective.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Nov 24, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

You clearly don't actually look at these lists

If performance were such a big deal, Terdoslavich would have been top 5 in his league instead of failing to crack the top 20. I mean, Harper obviously still ranked #1 in the SL despite the fact he struggled there. They ask managers and scouts who follow the leagues. These guys watch these players a ton. If a guy has elite tools, they’re going to see that. The fact that people weren’t impressed enough by Salcedo’s tools to get him on the top 20 says a whole lot.

by nixa37 on Nov 24, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

As much as I understand where youre coming from

I believe your thoughts on his ceiling are far lower than what they actually may be, regardless of production. Im not discounting youre perspective on the matter, but not everyone is viewing this from your perspective.

You constantly bring up BA and whether his power is legit (here and on sickels blog) to bolster your argument, but fail to acknowledge that some believe that he may be our only legitimate bat as a prospect.; which I agree is a disservice to Bethancourt.

To be honest this is year three of professional ball for the kid, while being moved aggressively. Sure at this point, he isnt Arod, Heyward, Griffey, Harper, etc… on the prospect scale. However, I wouldnt be surprised at 290/350+/450 slash line with 20-25 hr pop from 3rd or better. Because from my perspective, the kid made some huge strides this year and unless you believe hes plateau’ing, there is no reason to believe he doesnt keep pushing that ceiling further.

by aRC on Nov 24, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

My opinion isn't based only on BA

They aren’t the only ones who haven’t been impressed with Salcedo. For example, I’ve pointed to Mike Newman, who does like Salcedo, but will tell you he doesn’t have the explosive wrists necessary to project to be a very good power hitter. In fact, he’s the one who has put up the Edwin Encarnacion with good defense as a high-end outcome comp. That would be a very good player, and one I’d like to have, but he’s not someone who deserves some of the praise he’s getting. Also, you realize Encarnacion has a career line of .260/.336/.453 for his career while averaging ~24 HR per 160 games, right? Is that really that much different than the .290/.350+/.450 slash line you’re talking about?

I say it again and again with Salcedo, but other than the huge signing bonus, what reason is there to think he’s got elite tools (for the love of God, CB is comparing him to Miguel “I’m one of the 5 best hitters in baseball” Cabrera for some inexplicable reason)? He hasn’t had a single tool ranked as the best in the Braves organization according to BA. Kevin Goldstein, a self professed tool whore, ranked Salcedo as just a 3 star prospect and 9th overall in the Braves system coming into this year. He didn’t crack his league top 20 this year according to BA. Are we starting to see a pattern here? None of the major prospectors are saying anything about anyone being that impressed with Salcedo. Is this a giant conspiracy or something? Isn’t it possible the tools just aren’t there?

You…fail to acknowledge that some believe that he may be our only legitimate bat as a prospect

I’m honestly not sure what you’re trying to say here. I’ve acknowledged that before. I’ll even say he likely has the most upside with the bat of any of our prospects. You don’t grade prospects purely on bats though. You grade them on the overall package, and while Salcedo may have the best bat, the fact that he plays a less premium position than our other top 3 position prospects, and doesn’t have the tools to be an elite defender at his position unlike Simmons and Bethancourt, can render that advantage with the bat a moot point.

by nixa37 on Nov 24, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Once again...

My perspective is completely different than yours, as I believe he just needs reps, conditioning, and time to develop. He’s a late bloomer at the worst.

by aRC on Nov 24, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Happy Thanksgiving

I appreciate the dedication in posting 6-10 listing today. Great read as usual!

by In a minute I might be right on Nov 24, 2011 12:53 PM EST reply actions  

I feel like Uggla should be moved to LF and Pastornicky should be our 2B when Simmons is ready. Doubt it will happen but we’ll see.

by drumzalicious on Nov 24, 2011 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

If one of our college 3B prospects panned out as well, that would make for a very young, athletic infield.

Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)

by ATLandUNC on Nov 24, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Pastornicky

Something tells me that he will quickly become a blind-love fan-favorite, in the same mold as Prado, Counsell, and Punto have been to their respective fanbases. Everyone loves a scrappy little infielder who will do whatever it takes to win.

Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)

by ATLandUNC on Nov 24, 2011 6:24 PM EST reply actions  

Not everyone ;)

"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson

by TBuzz on Nov 24, 2011 11:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

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