Atlanta Braves 2012 Top 25 Prospects: 21-25
by yondaime4 on Nov 21, 2011 10:00 AM EST
in Braves Prospect Reviews
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PrintToday we kick off our 2012 top 25 Braves prospects with players 21-25. We will bring you five a day each day until Friday when we unveil the top five.
21. Jean Carlos Gil, RHP
The Skinny: Gil has been the best pitcher on his staff in both the GCL and the DSL but has gained very little national acclaim. He's the kind of lighter-tossing "pitchability" pitcher the Braves are great at identifying and developing.
The Good: In two professional seasons Gil has struck out nearly a batter an inning with low walk totals and a good groundball rate while demonstrating the ability to work deep into ballgames.
The Bad: At 20 years old in the GCL Gil isn't old, but many of the guys he was up against were two or three years younger.
....In a Perfect World.... Gil's stuff plays well at higher levels and he becomes an innings eater number four starter.
ETA: Given his age the Braves could push him to Rome next season and on a normal progression curve we could see him in 2015 if everything goes well.
22. William Beckwith, 1B
The Skinny: He showed power and patience in the Appalachian League and finished as one of the best all around hitters in the league.
The Good: His .251 isolated power comes from both doubles and home runs and in two seasons he has maintained a walk rate over 12% between two levels while striking out less than 20% of the time.
The Bad: Beckwith doesn't have an ideal physical frame and doesn't offer a ton of projection, but so far he has shown good athleticism (he swiped eight bases in ten attempts this season). He finished the season at 21 years old, just a year younger than Freddie Freeman.
....In a Perfect World.... His power and patience continue to shine at higher levels and he becomes a legitimate power bat in the middle of a lineup, though it may not be the Braves.
ETA: He will start 2012 in Rome, but if he continues his performance from 2011 he will move to Lynchburg in a hurry. He could be in the majors by late 2014.
23. Todd Cunningham, OF
The Skinny: The Braves 2010 second round pick showed signs of why the Braves drafted him so high, but some second half injuries cost him most of June and all of July and he wasn't the same when he returned.
The Good: Cunningham offers excellent on base skills and above average defense at all three positions in the outfield. Scouts continue to project him as a future .300 hitter because of his compact swing.
The Bad: He projects for little power and while he is smart on the basepaths he doesn't have elite speed. Injuries have slowed his development and he hasn't impressed in the Arizona Fall League.
....In a Perfect World.... He becomes a perfect number two hitter in the majors with above average on base skills and center field defense.
ETA: Even with poor end of season stats Cunningham still held his own when healthy in the Carolina League. He will be in AA next season with a shot for a callup in 2013
24. Kyle Kubitza, 3B
The Skinny: The Braves 2011 third round pick out of Texas State, Kubitza hit well in his debut in the Appy League showing good plate discipline while hitting .321.
The Good: He got stronger as the season went on hitting .382 over the last month of the season. He walked nearly 13% of the time while knocking a lot of doubles.
The Bad: The projected power did not show up as he hit just one homer. He also struck out 20% of the time and his defense at third is raw and he may have problems sticking there long term.
....In a Perfect World.... He is able to stick at third and his power develops, making him into a third baseman with a promising power/patience combination.
ETA: He will start 2012 in Rome with the chance to move quickly. He could be in Atlanta by 2014.
25. Cory Gearrin, RHP
The Skinny: Gearrin finally made his Major League debut in 2011 after methodically progressing through the minors level by level.
The Good: His sinking fastball generates tons of groundballs making him an ideal long term replacement for Peter Moylan. His strikeouts spiked back into the 28% range this year after falling below 20% in late 2009 and all of 2010.
The Bad: His walk rate spiked in his short trial in Atlanta and has risen since he was promoted to AAA. There isn't much projection for him and we have known for a while what he is going to be.
....In a Perfect World.... He ends up being exactly what we wanted him to be: a late inning reliever and double play specialist.
ETA: Right now.
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Yay!! My favorite part of Talking Chop
God has to bruise you before he use you. So you'll be sensitive to his touch.
by ArmyITSpec on Nov 21, 2011 11:47 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Cunningham is probably going to put it all together and have a great year with Simmons, Terdoslavich, Gilmartin and others for the M-Braves. They should be fun to watch.
I agree that Mississippi should have loads of talent there this year. I think I’m in the minority here (not sure what others think) but I feel that Simmons is the real answer at short for the long term over Pasto. He’s got a plus glove and showed he can hit while Pasto seems like he’s just playing above what he really is and will settle down to earth. I hope I’m wrong though because I’d love to see us have a plethora of good position prospects to go along with the pitching prospects.
by bravesfan1991 on Nov 21, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
I’d be curious to hear the thought process behind how Simmons has proven he can hit but Pastornicky is playing over his head, when they had pretty comparable numbers even though Simmons is slightly older playing in High A while Pastornicky was in AA and AAA.
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I’m just thinking it from more of a tools process, Pasto does have a very high contact rate and puts the ball in play a ton I just don’t see him being much more than a stop gap till Simmons. Neither has much power at all and Simmons has the advantage with the glove, and like I said I hope that Pasto keeps up how he’s playing. Obviously he’s not going to hit .365 like he did in Gwinnett but I’ll take around a .280-.290 range and good defense all day long. The age isn’t a huge factor to me where they play because Pasto got started at 18 and Simmons started when he was 20 and has had to prove he could play since most teams wanted him as a pitcher.
by bravesfan1991 on Nov 22, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I still saw nothing to explain how Pastornicky is “just playing above what he really is and will settle down to earth”.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
It’s just what I think will happen, yeah the stats have been there its just a gut feeling I have. Just an opinion from my point of view.
by bravesfan1991 on Nov 22, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough. I’d argue that Simmons’ best case scenario as a hitter is what Pastornicky did this year.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
What makes you think this?
I know you’ve obviously seen both play, but why do you think Simmons best case is what Pastornicky did this year? I mean Simmons basically exactly what Pastornicky did in AA, and he was in his first full pro season, while Pastornicky was in his third.
Because they’re the same age with the same skill set. Simmons has no power and while he doesn’t strike out he doesn’t walk either. A guy like that doesn’t really have much room for improvement, just like Pastornicky. They’re both high contact guys who’ll have to keep getting hits to stay effective. I mean really, how much better could Simmons actually get with the bat? Is he going to be a .330 hitter at the higher levels? Probably not. His best case is to hit around .300, with a .340 OBP a sub .400 slugging percentage, and good defense. That’s essentially the same ceiling Pastornicky has, except we know he can do it at AA and AAA.
I just don’t see where there’s really room for growth with that kind of hitter. Simmons can become more refined, and become consistent, which he’ll have to do, like any prospect has to, but he’s not going to suddenly develop power and it’s unlikely he’s all of the sudden going to start taking walks, so at best he’s the same kind of hitter after his third full season that he is after his first full one.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
I think Simmons clearly has more room to add power than Pastornicky
Scouts seem to agree as well. Obviously he’s not going to ever be a power hitter or anything, but there really isn’t much of a reason to think he can’t eventually ISO over .100 if he just fills out some. And I’m not sure why you’d just dismiss the possibility he refines his approach at the plate. This was his first year in professional baseball. Assuming his current approach is basically the best he’ll ever do seems pessimistic.
I think it’s just realistic when you actually look at the guy. He’s rail thin. Even if he fills out a little then he’ll just be average. He’s gonna have a hard time driving the ball at the higher levels, much less hitting for any kind of pop. He won’t walk much because his approach at the plate is based entirely on being aggressive.
If you really want pessimistic I’ll tell you my real projection for Simmons, a guy who at best in the Majors is a .270 hitter with a .310 OBP.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
.270/.310/.370 would be acceptable for a SS with + defense
That’s basically a league average player overall and that’s your self described pessimistic projection.
You also never addressed the part where Simmons projects to hit for more power than Pastornicky does currently, which was my whole point. I think Simmons clearly has the tools to end up being a better hitter than Pastornicky was this year.
And the fact that Simmons is rail thin is a good thing is some ways for projecting him forward. While he may be limited in how much weight he can put on due to his slight frame, I think its perfectly reasonable to think 10 pounds of muscle is well within reach, and because he is already so skinny there is no reason to think that extra weight would have a significant effect on his fielding. If he could just get to 40 or 45 power, combined with his fielding and hit tool, Simmons could easily be a top 10 SS in baseball.
My pessimistic projection for a best case scenario. If he doesn’t hit that then, by your definition, he’s a below league average player.
You also never addressed the part where Simmons projects to hit for more power than Pastornicky does currently,
If I never addressed this it’s because I never saw it. Also because it’s ludicrous. I don’t understand how this projection comes about. It’s not going to happen.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
You don't understand how it comes about?
Simmons has 4 or 5 inches on Pastornicky with more room to fill out. Plus Simmons showed a ton of doubles power this year, which could eventually turn into some HRs if he adds a little strength.
I think anyone who’s actually seen Simmons and thinks he’ll fill out and add strength is crazy. The kid is unfortunately skinny and that’s just his build.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Skinny people can still add muscle/strength
Not sure why you would think otherwise. Obviously he doesn’t have the frame to add 20-30 pounds, like someone with Heyward’s build as a minor leaguer, but he clearly can add some weight.
Have you seen Simmons? Have you stood up close to him and seen the guy’s build? Yes, skinny guys can add muscle, but I’ve been around Minor Leaguers for 15 years, at all different levels, and that experience is telling me he doesn’t have the body to gain strength.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
OK so skinny 22 years olds are incapable of adding any strength or muscle
Glad we cleared that one up
Also, why can't his approach improve?
I mean this was his first full professional season. Assuming he can’t become more selective as he gains experience just seems strange to me. Just because his approach this year (against weak pitchers) was aggressive doesn’t mean he won’t become more patient as he moves up and faces pitchers that are far less likely to give him a hitters pitch he can jump on early in the count.
His approach is tied in with being aggressive. If he becomes more selective and takes walks he’s going to lose the aggression and see a dropoff in his average. I know some guys can make it work, but I’m telling you, that’s not how it’s going to go with him. Whatever he gets in walks he’ll be giving up in batting average, making it no real gain.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Well I'm glad you know how its going to go with him
Amazing that you can draw a conclusion like that simply from seeing him a few times. You just don’t think highly of Simmons, I get it. Perhaps you should reconsider that position in light of the glowing scouting reports he’s been getting this year?
I think very highly of Simmons. I’ve enjoyed watching him every time I’ve seen him and I think he’ll play in the Majors. I’m just not confused about what he’ll develop into. Best case scenario he’s Rey Ordonez.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Best case scenario he's Rey Ordonez?
And I just lost all respect for your opinion. Best case scenario is a .246/.289/.310 line? Really? That’s what you’re going with?
Simmons clearly has at least as much upside with the bat as Pastornicky. You seem to be the only person who thinks differently and you still haven’t even made a case beyond "they posted similar numbers at a similar age and Pastornicky was a level higher.
Again, fine. We disagree. I’m under no obligation to change your mind. I think Pastornicky is a better bet to make it. I think Simmons is going to struggle mightily at AA this year and I have doubts about his ability to become a productive Major Leaguer.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
No but you should be better informed
If you’re going to write this list you should no enough to see its batshit insane to say his best case scenario is Rey Ordonez. That is one of the dumber things I’ve ever heard and you know it because it directly contradicts what you’ve said previously.
I get it, you think Pastornicky is a better bet to make it because he was a level ahead of Simmons this year and he’s a little younger and you are seemingly basing this solely off of performance and ARL, while disregarding every single scouting report that disagrees with your assertions.
A lot of us have grown frustrated by this rampant perception that Tyler Pastornicky is a completely unspectacular baseball player with limited upside. There’s no reason to think he’s playing above his head. You can have a hunch. I’m not trying to deny you of that, but there are a lot of people who feel like they’re “in the know” because they constantly harp on this “fact”, citing Simmons’ upside and Pastornicky’s lack thereof.
The two players put up extremely similar statistics last season while Pastornicky played against tougher competition. Fans like to think that prospects are “exciting” and that there’s unlimited potential for anybody with the least bit of athleticism, but Andrelton Simmons is far from a godsend, and Tyler Pastornicky has given no reason to think he won’t continue progressing into a solid major leaguer. It’s awesome that we have both of them, but neither one is the next Tulo or Hanley. In fact, they might both fail to ever be as productive as Yunel Escobar.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
Agreed. I don’t think either will develop into superstars by any means, and maybe some of my like for Simmons has come from hearing/reading more about him than Pasto because he’s the flashier prospect with higher upside. I would love for Pasto to maybe turn into a Pedroia-light without the power and be our shortstop for the future and be a solid player in our lineup from years to come. And yeah I definitely don’t think Simmons is in the upper tier of shortstop prospects with the Manny Machado’s and such but I think he’ll develop into a pretty solid player. Only time will tell though, thankfully our minor league system is one of the best and does a great job developing our young guys for success. It’s going to be a fun next decade or so to be a Braves fan.
by bravesfan1991 on Nov 22, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
There's no reason to think he's playing above his head...
Except of course for all the scouting reports that say exactly that. Not to mention that this idea that Pastornicky is at all exciting as a hitter is based almost entirely on his hot start in AAA. He was solid in AA, but basically exactly what scouts have always said about him. He showed a bat that would work at SS, but the tools just aren’t there where you can expect him to improve much at the plate and he’s never even going to be an average defender at SS with that arm.
He can definitely be an average defender with that arm. He has great range, soft hands, and good instincts. He’s limited by the throws he can make in the hole, but he can get to balls there other shortstops can’t and he’s smart enough not to throw the ball away. It’s not like he has a weak arm and no range. If he had an above average arm we’d be raving about his defense. His arm is adequate enough to play the position, but not ideal.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
"His arm is adequate enough to play the position"
Scouts seem disagree with you on this big time. If anyone actually thought he could be an average defender at SS he’d be considered a borderline top 100 guy in baseball, not a guy who comes in behind Edward Salcedo on an organizational list.
Why wouldn’t he come behind Salcedo? Salcedo has the potential to be a Miguel Cabrera type player.
And scout and prognosticators are never wrong. Top prospect lists aren’t littered with guys who never panned out. I could be wrong too, but let’s not get crazy and say I’m wrong because some other folks who are making informed guesses disagree.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Salcedo does not have Miguel Cabrera potential
There is absolutely no reason to think that outside of his signing bonus. He has done nothing professionally that should lead to that conclusion and even his tools are nowhere near that strong. He’s a solid prospect, and probably has the most upside with the bat of our positional prospects, but that says more about our lack of hitters than anything else. Salcedo’s realistic potential is more along the lines of Edward Encarnacion with better defense.
No one is saying scouts and prognosticators are never wrong, but I think its pretty clear they are the best people to listen to when it comes to grading out prospect defense. The fact that no one seems to think Pastornicky can legitimately handle SS should be telling. Every single thing I’ve seen points to the arm being downright weak for the position. Its great that he has the range for the position, but that’s meaningless if he can’t actually throw anyone out on those balls he gets to that other people can’t.
Well, obviously, I disagree strongly on both points.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Well at least you making a convincing argument
Seriously, you couldn’t even be bothered to actually address why you disagree with either point?
I’ve addressed it a bunch on this thread. How long am I supposed to go on just disagreeing. I say something, you say something, we don’t agree. How long are we supposed to go back and forth? We have different views on the players. That’s fine. We don’t have to agree. Time will tell how they work out.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Did you even read the post above?
Where have you addressed Salcedo having Cabrera type potential or that scouts are the best people to listen to when talking about prospect defense?
I don’t have to address anything. I’ve done a number of writeups on Salcedo the last two years on this site. Go find one if you need it that badly.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
So you point to outdated reports?
Alright then, so you’re clearly basing this off of pretty much gut feeling then and not even bothering to check what actual scouts are saying about the players in question?
And I didn’t say you have to address anything, but don’t claim you have addressed things earlier in the thread when you clearly haven’t.
Not sure how many people thinks Pastornicky is the long-term answer at short
But I’m not sure how he’s playing over his head. It’s not like his peripherals tell a hugely different story. He’s a hitter who puts the ball in play without a much power and has decent on base skills. I certainly think Simmons has the higher potential purely from his glove, but I think Pastornicky is more of a cheap, decent option for a couple of years than a long term option.
I think most people feel that way, but Simmons is huge upside/moderate risk, whereas Pastornicky is decent upside/low risk.
Honestly, I think Simmons is possibly a smaller risk that Pastornicky
You can put up without much offense from a plus defensive SS, so Simmons is almost guaranteed to make some contribution at the MLB level.
just a thought
Since we do these reviews starting at the bottom of the 25, shouldn’t start each article at the bottom too? For example, in my mind, the article should lead with Gearrin and end with Gil. Otherwise I end up starting at the bottom and doing a weird scrolling down-up thing. Just my two cents.
by timelovesahero on Nov 22, 2011 12:28 AM EST reply actions
This is something I could really stand to get behind.
I feel like SWAT right now..Colin Farrell GET AT ME! GET AT ME! LL Cool J GET AT ME!
by bwellnjonesco on Nov 22, 2011 8:23 AM EST up reply actions
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