Rosterbation-Did the Derek Lowe trade save Jurrjens and Prado?
by bighop on Nov 19, 2011 1:08 PM EST
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Lots of new info coming out, Pastornicky could be penciled in at SS, McCann has maxxed out his contract with Silver Sluggers and All Star selections. Post GM meetings, pre-Winter Meetings, where do the Braves stand, what do they need and what are other options? Frank Wren is listening, but not pulling the trigger too quickly.
Lowe is owed $10M
McCann C $11.5M
Freeman 1B ~0.5M
Uggla 2B 13M
Pastornicky SS ~0.425M
Chipper 3B 14M (13M salary + 1M signing bonus in Jan)
Prado LF ~4.5M
Bourn CF ~7M
Heyward RF ~0.6M
total so far = ~$61.525
Hudson $9M
Jurrjens ~5M
Hanson ~0.6M
Beachy ~0.5M
Minor or Teheran ~$0.45M
Rotation = ~$15.55M Total so far = ~$77.075
Kimbrel ~$0.5M
Venters ~0.5M
O'Flaherty ~2M
Medlen ~0.5
Martinez ~0.5
Vizcaino ~0.45
Hoover ~0.425
Bullpen total = ~$4.875M Total so far = ~$81.950M
Ross $1.625M
Diaz $2M
Hinske $1.5M
Bench total = $5.125M needing 2 players Total so far = ~$87.075M
With a small increase in salary over 2011's $91M starting salary (per Cot's) it looks like we have $4-8M available for 2 bench guys to back up SS and CF unless we trade more salary away. We can still talk to Moylan too. Moving Prado to the bench doesn't help much unless we get a SS/CF combo for the other bench guy.
Hoover and Vizcaino are certainly question marks for the pen.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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The other Rosterbation thread being in it’s 12th day and nearing 600 comments, I thought it might be time for a new one.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Nobody likes it when the floors get all sticky
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Just remember you got alot of work to do, the first rosterbation is always the best
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
by chicagobullies on Nov 23, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
i have been a big fan of drew stubbs for quite some time.
Although the reds have 6 or 7 starting pitching options, most of them haven’t proven to be very consistent yet and they seem to be looking for a veteran to help stabilize the rotation. They have been linked to Jair Jurrjens.
Braves get: Drew Stubbs, and a mid level prospect
Reds get: Jair Jurrjens
Stubbs hasn’t put together a full, consistent season yet but he has all the tools to be a 30-30 guy. He would add more speed to the lineup, along with Bourn. If we aren’t able to work out an extension with Bourn, Stubbs will be his replacement. If we can work out the extension, we will potentially have one of the best outfields in the league for years to come, both offensively and defensively.
The only issue is what to do with Prado. I DO NOT want us to trade him because he should be chipper’s replacement after next year but it would also be very difficult to tell him to move into a utility role this year
by K.Brown on Nov 19, 2011 2:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Not liking Stubbs 205 K’s in 2011, other than that, maybe. Stubbs would fill the need for a back up CF in 2012, making room for Prado on the bench, so that would work. But, I don’t think adding a K machine and losing Prado as an everyday player, plus losing Jurrjens from the rotation, makes the Braves better overall
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
This team would be foolish to trade Prado(unless they recieve an overwhelming package), but foolish to not trade JJ
Here are a couple trades I think we could get for JJ.
The teams I think are intrested in JJ include: NYY, Boston, Toronto, Reds, Colorado, and Texa$
Braves Send: Jurrjens
Yankees Send: Jesus Montero
Braves send: Jurrjens
Rangers send: Mike Olt and Craig Gentry
Braves Send: Jurrjens
Red Sox Send: Marco Scutaro and Will Middlebrooks
Braves Send: Jurrjens
Reds Send: Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier
Braves Send: Jurrjens
Blue Jays Send: Anthony Gose and Noah Syndergaard
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
highly doubt a single one of these proposals would be on the table
it seems more likely that in order to land any form of a bat, prado would need to be included…the only one i can see is possibly jj and a type b prospect for middlebrooks
Wren said he isn’t going to undervalue these players. He is going to get a good return if he trades Jurrjens and/or Prado.
We are talking about the guy that traded a utility player and average reliever for an All-Star 2B. The same GM who moved Jordan Schafer and 3 other average/below average prospects for one of the best leadoff hitter in the game
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
by KINGSLYTUT on Nov 19, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oberholtzerv and clemens could be in their rotation by 2013
and abreu may break with the team this year with his arm and late action on his fastball.
i have confidence in wren, however, jj isn’t going to nab multiple viable prospects on his own. we may have to accept the fact that right now jj’s value will hover at its unrealistic price(on our end) or steadily decline until he takes the hill in ST. i’m not saying this is a bad thing, having JJ there allows the braves to keep the clock on Tehran on track while having a solid back up waiting…
That's all true
but I think it will have been worth it if we make the playoffs with Bourn this year, or if we can re-sign him at reasonable money. Besides, by 2013, the Astros will be in the AL and we won’t see them much.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
They are average prospects
The Braves have numerous young pitchers that are better. Everybody thought it would take a minor/delgado to net Bourn and all it took were these decent prospects.
Wren can work magic
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
More chance of hell freezing over than the Jays going for that deal
The current (gotta stop calling it new) organisation philosophy is really against pitchers without stuff, even if they have god-like control, as they believe it won’t hold up in the AL East. Jurrjens is a fine pitcher, but your not gonna get the Jays #2 prospect + a fast rising talent for him with him being the anathema of what they’re looking for.
I'm not comparing Jurrjens to him
But I remember a pitcher with decent stuff but incredible control of his pitches that was on the Blue Jays and is the best pitcher is baseball. His name is Roy Halladay, perhaps you’ve heard of him. “God-like control” is the best thing a pitcher can have. Stuff has little to do with pitching it’s all about deception and control.
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Control/Deception/Movement/Stuff (Mostly velocity)/Pitch Variation
Five things that make up a pitchers repetoire, you really need at least two to be well above average or average across the board, and a solid helping of control either way if you want to start at the big leagues. Jurrjens has + control (++ on a good day), and only average to above average in the other areas. Halladay has better velocity in the mix compared to Jurrjens, and probably top 5 movement on his pitches in the big leagues, that’s most of the difference.
The oddity between the AL East and most other division is that the dominant three teams all take a lot of pitches, meaning that even with good control your going to see more mistake pitches in a game simply due to the shear number of pitches your having to throw. The Jays theory is that you need pitchers that have more than control, so they can get away more with the increased mistake pitches, hence them acquiring Morrow (+ velocity, + movement but control is a work in progress) and bringing up the likes of Alvarez (+ control, + movement, ++ velocity, -pitch variation). It’s also why they shipped off Marcum as they felt he struggled against more patient teams.
It’s not that the Jays wouldn’t take Jurrjens ever, but if he does end up on the Jays, it will be because no-one else was interested and they could acquire him at under market value, and I don’t see that being what you want to happen.
by TtD on Nov 20, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I saw this on here somewhere else today
but what about JJ for Tabata? would Pitt do that?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I would do it
Personally Tabata is a fan fav of mine, and he plays great D. Unfortunately I don’t think he will ever amount to much more than an on base guy with the stick. Were still waiting for the power from him to come but its doubtful.
He is signed to a very friendly contract but JJ would instantly be our best pitcher, Id depart with Tabata for that.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Jerry Hairston Jr
$2M in 2011, 376 ab / .270 / .344 / .383 / .727 / 1.1 WAR / 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF
Seems like a guy we should at least be considering
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Eh, last year was the only good season he's had since '08.
I would pass simply because he’ll be 36 next year and carries a career wOBA of .311. If Prado stays, I would rather the Braves get a back-up infielder who can hit decently than one who plays multiple positions but hits poorly. Maybe if Prado is traded, Hairston would be an option.
Type A Compensation change... and the Phillies
Under the new CBA, teams that sign the remaining Type A relievers will not be forced to surrender draft picks, a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
… The measure is not retroactive, however, meaning that the Phillies will still surrender their first-round pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon.
Snicker, Snicker.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
i second that
but they will get one back soon enough…
But not a first rounder.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 21, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Latest material I’ve been rosterbating to…
1. Start with Pastornicky as Opening Day SS
2. Keep Prado and use him as he should be used: playing 80% of games and filling in at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and LF.
3. Trade Jurrjens for Nick Swisher and Mason Williams (link to his scouting report)
http://tinyurl.com/78hzzaz
4. Sign Jerry Hairston, Jr. as Super Utility backup.
Go with this roster:
Rotation: Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Teheran
Lineup: 1. Bourn 2. Heyward 3. Chipper 4. Uggla 5. McCann 6. Swisher 7. Freeman 8. Pastornicky
Bench: Prado, Hairston jr, Ross, Hinske, Diaz
Bullpen: The Filthy 3, Medlen, Vizcaino, and 2 of Hoover/Asencio/Martinez/Gearrin/Chapman
Seriously, who offensively will have a worse season than the previous year. Probably not Bourn (fairly poor #s with the Braves), Heyward, Uggla, Prado, or McCann. Full year of Bourn, Swisher in LF, and a rejuventated Heyward and Prado. I’ll take it!
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
I like it
But I’m not so sure Pastornicky is quite ready at SS.
by DopeFalcons on Nov 19, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure I am either...
but I can’t find a vet that I can justify giving a multi-year contract to and I’ve rosterbated about Jed Lowrie ‘til I’m blue in the face. Who else is there?
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
Even if we did give Pasty the job we’d have to sign a veteran backup (maybe Jack Wilson), because if he doesn’t produce on offense he’s not going to wow anyone with his defense.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 21, 2011 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
I am getting Lowrie kleenex for Christmas...
It’s about the only way I could rosterbate more for him… :( There has to be a way….
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
It is an interesting idea, but a waste of Prado's talent.
He would never get 80% playing time. Chipper plays 80% of the time, Uggla 95%, Freeman 95%, and Swisher from prior history, about 90% of the time. Prado would get about half a season of AB’s. At that point, we might as well just use Hairston for that and trade Prado for whatever we can get for him.
I hear that
but I am wanting to be prepared for major injuries to Chipper or potential heyward failure..
But there's the rub...
…you can’t really have enough for losing two important offensive contributors unless you have a ridiculous payroll. It is just not an efficient use of resources. Now, if something goes wrong, it is nice to be able to rectify it with an in-season trade, but doing it for the full year is pretty difficult with payroll constraints.
I hear that
but it;s a tricky situation, because there is good reason to believe either or both of these scenarios could come up. How easy will it be to replace chipper or heyward mid season with a guy like Prado (Who may be a question mark himself)? Maybe easy, I’m not sure, but it would definitely take a couple weeks. We also need a good player to backup chipper at third and on off days from day one. So I think it makes sense to have a 9th starter.
The two options are obviously to bench a starter (Prado) or to have a combined starter in a platoon backup for Prado when he needs to play third, right, or second. I think this is a good way to do it cost effectively. We can get a lefty that really mashes right handers and get a lot out of him. Not only does this attribute make him good to platoon in left, but it makes him an ideal bench tool. We then have Diaz as the bench tool against lefties and the right handed left field platoon. Then hopefully the backup infielder brings a quality right handed bat so that he and Diaz compliment his left field platoon partner and hinske off the bench. The problem is, if we take these two out field platoon partners, add an infielder, hinske, and ross, we have no room for a backup center fielder and whatever tools he might bring to the bench (I’m thinking Constanza).
If we get a starting left fielder, Prado will be able to back up LF, RF, 3B, 2B and 1B in the event a starter is needed. This ensures we are never without a starting quality player when any of these positions take a night off or have an injury. He wouldn’t need a platoon partner to accompany him into any of these roles or compliment him on the bench. Add Hinske, Ross and a backup SS, and we still have room for a backup center fielder who can serve as a late game defensive player in the corners after serving as a pinch runner or a batter with on base skills.
I’m just saying that if we can get a starting LF, Prado is extremely valuable to us in this role. He will be a starter when we need him, and we will. This will make our team airtight. No weak spots in the lineup when someone takes a night off (except maybe SS, but that might be a weak spot anyway). The security and peace of mind would be incredible, the pressure it would take off chipper (and put on Heyward) would be great for everyone. I think this is a phenomenal position to adjust from midseason.
That's a nice idea...
…but where do we find the LF who is better than Prado? And how much does he cost? Alternatively, we could find a decent starting caliber LF who doesn’t need a platoon partner who isn’t as good a Prado, leave Prado as the starting LF, but use the new guy in left whenever Prado is needed elsewhere. My biggest problem with the put Prado on the bench scenario is that most of the guys discussed aren’t actually better than Prado.
yeah I think that sounds good
get another guy in left that doesnt need a platoon partner, but start prado over him. Use him to back up prado whenever he needs it.
My feeling is though, if we get a guy to be around his abilities but not better, we are going to get a platoon partner because of their additional value off the bench.
i dunno about teheran being #5...
Simply because of how well delgado did in September, and it was evident management trusted his stuff more. I suppose they will compete for the job in ST, but I think delgado should get the starting spot.
by dcbravesfn on Nov 25, 2011 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I keep looking at...
… the Rangers’ roster, and all of the 1B/corner OF types they have, and thinking that there ought to be a way to pry somebody out of them, probably in exchange for JJ (I don’t think they would be interested in Prado). Back before the ASB this year I was thinking Mitch Moreland, as he looks to eventually be pushed out of 1B by Mike Napoli and Chris Stewart. But he’s a lefthander with a pretty big platoon split, and it’s become evident that that isn’t what the Braves need.
So now I’m wondering about Nelson Cruz. Bill James has him projected for 2012 at .277/.339/.512, a little better than his 2011 numbers, and the RH power looks like what we need. (He has a pretty big platoon split, but the Braves have lots of other options against RH pitching.) He does have a few health problems, but he had about the same number of PA as Prado did last year. He’s not a great OF but he’s better than Hinske and Diaz. And the money would work out about even. The only thing there is, he becomes FA eligible next year. But he might work as a short-term solution.
I’m thinking our outfield against most LH pitchers would be: LF Cruz, CF Bourn, RF Diaz. Against most RH pitchers we’d have LF Prado (if he’s not playing 3B), CF Bourn, RF Hinkse.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Sorry, left JHey out… pencil him in RF against most LH pitchers, with Hinske in LF if Prado’s playing 3B.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Okay, okay...
I had a brain fart. But I still think we need reliable power in the OF. Maybe Diaz and Hinske will make an effective platoon in LF and we don’t need anyone else. But they weren’t much help down the stretch last season.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
There is no scenario what so ever where will we have a platoon consisting of hinske and diaz. If we are unable to pick up a corner OF bat then Prado will be our everyday left fielder.
I do, however, like the nelson cruz idea. He could be a very useful player for us.
by K.Brown on Nov 19, 2011 6:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
No scenario whatsoever?
Have you ever seen how injuries can harm this team? I can think of at least eight scenarios.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 27, 2011 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Platooning Heyward is a horrible idea, we’ve gone over this topic before but it is still a bad idea
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Who said anything about platooning Heyward?? Nelson cruz would be our left fielder. He would not affect Heyward,. It would only move Prado to a super utility role
by K.Brown on Nov 19, 2011 7:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I too like Nelson Cruz, but I’m sure it will take a lot more than what FW would be willing to give up to acquire him.
by JohnRocker4CyYoung on Nov 19, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Why do we need more OF power?
The one problem our offense did not have last year was power. The problems were pretty much everything else.
We were 10th in the NL in slugging last year. Everyone else in the division was ahead of us except Washington.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Our OF was next to last in baseball in slugging.
3rd from the bottom in ISO.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
In large part because
Prado and Heyward had much worse than they’re capable of seasons. Have those two produce to the level they should, and it rises far, fast.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I don't doubt it
but our OF had problems across the board, really; it’s not like they were great power hitters and nothing else.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I am very opposed to categorizing offense by defensive positions
I think it’s nonsense. You need to have a balanced offense period. Isolating the outfield makes no sense to me.
I concur
But the statement was that our outfield wasn’t wanting for power last year, which it demonstrably was.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Actully, no it wasn't.
I said that the problem with our offense last year was not power. I concur with willinn that categorizing offense by defensive position is silly and have said so previously on many occasions.
I'm with you here in a way
I never understood why everyone sticks with the old baseball beliefs that your corner OFs and IFs NEED to supply massive amounts of power. Yes, your offense needs power. And yes, that power generally comes from those positions because those players are normally bigger and are less important on the defensive side of the ball, which is why they are in those positions. But if you have someone from a non corner position supplying power, can’t a corner of position be substituted for speed? To simplify, because we get + power from Uggla and Mac, compared to other NL 2B and Cs, can’t we look for speed, or even defense from another position?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Please
Can someone please explain to me how the Marlins all of a sudden are throwing around big money to free agents like Charlie Sheen in a strip club?
hahaha
they are tanking a risk and trying to generate excitement by changing the culture
they never really recovered after strip selling the team in the 90’s (not that thats an excuse anymore for terrible attendance)
they are banking on the new stadium and the better location (downtown) to up attendance
tanking is the key word in your entire statement...
well placed. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
they are going to get a veteran reliever
there goes the spending money
New CBA
League Minimum in 2012 will rise from $414,000 to $480,000. All those damn numbers I posted are wrong! But not wrong enough to make a big deal.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I'm looking forward to seeing what Walker and his 'video breakdown superanalyst' assistant coach can do with heyward
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Padres get Jair Jurrjens and Zeke Spruill
Braves get Jason Bartlett, Reymond Fuentes, and Chase Headley
Braves get a decent SS in Bartlett who is owed $5.5M this season. He hit .245/.308/.307 with 2 HR’s and 23 SB’s in 139 games, but away from PetCo he hit .265/.323/.330. Those numbers would be acceptable in Atlanta. He plays pretty good defense and could probable hit 6-8 HR’s away from PetCO.
Fuentes is a 20 year old left handed hitting CF. He has very little power but hit .275/.342/.369 with 5 HR’s and 41 SB’s in 124 games at A+. He also plays excellent defense.
Headley would give the Braves their starter in LF next year and the eventual replacement for Chipper at 3B. He hit .289/.374/.399 with 4 HR’s in 113 games, again away from PetCo he showed better power numbers but his average and ability to draw walks is a huge plus.
The Padres get a solid controllable pitcher in Jurrjens who could excel in that ballpark. They also get a solid prospect pitcher in Spruill and is still at least a year away but the Padres really aren’t close to contending anyway.
Bartlett will make $5.5M and Headley made $2.54M in his first arb. year in 2011. We would probably only be taking on about $3M in salary.
It’s not a flashy trade but it gets a starting SS and starting LF. It also brings in a good prospect who could be the CF of the future.
Would a three-way work:
All three parties have to be on the same page as to what’s happening, and there has to be a lot of open communication and no jealousy. If not, things can get complicated quickly.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
pelican...
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Its so tough to ride the tricycle…
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 22, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Absolutely hilarious
and very true…….the makings of a great comment
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
by chicagobullies on Nov 24, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
MLBTR has Braves interested in Nunez. How about a big trade and do it all at once
Yankees get: Prado+JJ, and maybe a prospect
Braves get Swisher+Nunez, and a prospect
Revenue wise it would be neutral given the Lowe savings, solves LF and SS holes for next year, opens a spot for Pastornicky to be super-utility, and a spot for Teheran.
I see nothing in Nunez’s track record to indicate he would be any better than Pastornicky,
Nunez’s -25.5 UZR/150 at shortstop in NY also makes me less than ecstatic about this rumor. No thanks, New York. You can keep your no-power, poor-fielding shortstop.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
"You can keep your no-power, poor-fielding shortstop."
Don’t you talk about Derek Jeter like that!
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 21, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
The rumor was from some random guy who writes for a NY paper
I wouldn’t read too much into it
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
I can't see Pastornicky as a super ut
if he’s not the starting SS out of spring training, I’d assume they send him to AAA to get everyday at bats until he is deemed ready.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Jon Heyman of SI
Says the Yankees would have to give up more than Nunez to get Jurrjens.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
To answer the question posted in the title
YES!
The Lowe trade gave Frank Wren a lot more leverage in possibly trading JJ/Prado as the Braves can afford both of them with the current self-imposed salary ceiling. They are being shopped around but I can see both them on the Braves opening day roster.
by LEastCoastBears on Nov 20, 2011 3:07 AM EST reply actions
How about this?
Braves get: Nick Swisher, Eduardo Nunez
Yankees get: J.J.
The braves get their corner outfield bat and 2012you starting shortstopp
by K.Brown on Nov 20, 2011 11:46 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I don’t get the love for Eduardo Nunez. Guy can’t play SS, he isn’t a spring chicken(not old old either) and the guy can’t even hit that good. I would rather have Sea Bass back, at least he can hit some homers and play remarkable defense. You are ACTUALLY getting worse by having Nunez at SS over Gonzalez, I can’t even believe I said that, but it’s true(hard to believe, I know). To me, Nunez almost has 0 value, you pretty much trading Swisher straight up for Jurrjens. I wouldn’t say Swisher for JJ straight up is a bad deal. Obviously I would take Nunez in the deal as well, my point is I think Nunez sucks and doesn’t bring much value at all to the table.
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
How about this?
Braves get: Nick Swisher, Eduardo Nunez
Yankees get: J.J.
The braves get their corner outfield bat and 2012 starting shortstop (future utility player) and the Yankees get a young controllable #2 or 3 starter
Swisher will make 10.25 million this year and I believe the braves can afford it. If we can’t afford that then we can give them another decent prospect for them to pitch in a few million
by K.Brown on Nov 20, 2011 11:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
that would be good… and hopefully we can convince Swisher and/or Bourn that Atlanta can be a perennial contender if they hang around.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
While the Braves would jump at this trade
I doubt the Yankees would relinquish their right fielder. More realistic is Jurrjens for Nunez and a RP or utility player.
I’m not really convinced of the value of this trade to the Braves, though. In return for a player who is only a marginal upgrade over Gonzalez (2011 Nunez: .265 avg/.313 OBP/.385 slg, -.06 WAR; 2011 Gonzalez .240/.270/.372, but 1.1 WAR) and one or two other easily replaceable players, the Yankees get a #2 or #3 starter. If I’m Cashman I jump at that deal.
by Uncle Mo's Family Feedbag on Nov 20, 2011 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
Please just stop.
Nunez can’t play SS, he can’t even hit that good, and you want to trade a good SP for Nunez and a RP(which we DON’T need) or utility player, really???
We don’t have to trade Jurrjens, no reason to take scraps for the guy. Wren will trade him if he gets a good fit, otherwise he won’t. Trading Jurrjens for Nunez and RP/utility player makes the braves significantly a worse team in 2012.
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
I think in my original post I missunderstood what you meant. Maybe you meant Yankees would like to do that Jurrjens for Nunez and a RP/utility player. If you mean that then ya, I’m sure they would love to do this lol.
“In return for a player who is only a marginal upgrade over Gonzalez (2011 Nunez: .265 avg/.313 OBP/.385 slg, -.06 WAR; 2011 Gonzalez .240/.270/.372, but 1.1 WAR)”
Actually Nunez is a downgrade over Gonzalez, ya that is hard to say, but it’s true lol. I’m sure Cashman would jump all over that deal, if he was smart he would…
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
TRADE IDEA: Pirate fan here.
Hey everyone, just wanted to float some thoughts out there and gauge some reactions and opinions on some trade ideas with the Pirates. I along with some other Pirate fans are just curious to see how you all feel about some trade ideas.
The Buccos are still looking for some immediate pitching help for 2012 and beyond. Our one area of surplus is OF and as I follow the Braves pretty well, I know that CF quite possibly an area of need for you guys. As the Pirates continue negotiations to extend McCutchen, two other players at the CF position that could be traded are Alex Presley or Starling Marte.
For those of you unfamiliar with Marte here is his profile page: http://players.piratesprospects.com/2010/02/starling-marte.html
Marte will be in AAA this season so he is close to being in the bigs, and he has the tools to move McCutchen off CF, which shows that he could be the real deal. Anyways my question is, if the Pirates were to put a package together around Presley or Marte what would the Braves be willing to give up in return. Could the Pirates get a Minor or a Delgado. Would it take less to get Hoover? Beachy? Going for the big time, what would it cost for say Jurrjens?
Thanks in advance for the discussion (hopefully!).
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
We'll give you whatever you want
if you promise to keep Pirate Girl out of our stadium. “Go Pirates!!!” :^)
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
Marte and Presley both look like C+ to B- type prospects. Presley will turn 27 mid next season and Marte will is also a little old at 23.
I would have no interest in Presley mostly do to age.
Marte is interesting though. Another full season in the minors won’t hurt him. He looks like he has a frame that could add some muscle to increase his power.
That being said Delgado is untouchable and Minor probably is to. The Braves refused to move either for Hunter Pence and won’t do it for prospects.
My proposal
Braves get Starling Marte, Jose Veras and a PTBNL
Pirates get Jurrjens
i think this is a good suggestion in terms of value
(assuming you mean the PTBNL is not a terribly good prospect, at the moment)
I am not sure whether the Pirates can afford to give up Marte, but the value seems to be fairly appropriate here.
Here's Marte's scout report from the Bucs Dugout
2011 was another strong year for Marte, and he made significant progress with his power, posting an ISO% of .168, easily the highest in three seasons. Marte cut down some on the strikeouts this season and will need to continue cutting them down, while walking more frequently moving forward. He has above average speed that allows him to play a very strong defensive CF. Marte needs some more polish, but continues to make big strides.
He is listed as their top position-playing prospect (#3 overall; above Josh Bell). You gotta at least like somebody who has never hit below .312 as a professional baseball player.
Now that said, here’s the rub: Wren is (rightfully) not going to move JJ without at least getting an impactful (made up that word, I did) major leaguer back… and while I like Marte, he’s not that yet. I also gotta wonder if Pittsburgh would want to try and keep JJ – his salary projections are little above their usual pay grade… making the idea less interesting on their end. Unfortunately, it’s only via pitching that we would match up well with the Pirates (i.e., Prado would not be of interest, I’m pretty sure).
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
missed a line in there — yes, I agree with Jack that the “kids” are pretty close to untouchable.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
that is what everyone likely believes and Wren has certainly attempted to create that impression, but if there was an opportunity to obtain an “impactful” long term piece, I wonder if one or the other might not be so very “close to untouchable.”
"Kevien Towers here, how do you feel about Justin Upton"
Wren – “TAKE EVERYONE”
Every untouchable prospect will become available for the right price.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
I was thinking about the Braves signing a SS for a one year contract, assuming Pastornicky will be ready by 2013. A few possible names come to mind. Renteria, although an older veteran, would be a decent SS option for the Braves. Taking his age into consideration, I’m thinking around 2.5mil for a year. Other names that come to mind are Betancourt or Izturis. However, they may not be willing to take a short-term deal.
by JohnRocker4CyYoung on Nov 20, 2011 7:41 PM EST reply actions
We might just then become the first team that would have its infield defense improved by a collection of garden gnome. We’d have to find some way to gimmick the infield.
Maybe a row of inflatable bumperguards in the infield that shape in a V with Renteria standing in the narrow end? That would even the playing field a little bit.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
With the new rumors floating around here what I think Wren should do.
Trade Jair Jurrjens to the Yankees for Nick Swisher and Eduardo Nunez.
Trade Martin Prado to the Rockies for Tim Wheeler and Tyler Matzek.
Not sure why...
the Braves would want Matzek. He’s been a disaster and plays the Braves’ deepest position.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
He reminds me of Venters
Venters was terrible(as a starter) in the mL as well so maybe he could work with Matzek. Also he’s still very young and who knows a COS may be what the kid needs.
Just for fun...Who's a long term Brave?
Only 6 players that finished 2011 with the Braves have stats with the 2007 Braves.
Chipper, McCann, Prado, Diaz, Hudson and Moylan.
Who has 2011 stats with the Braves and will still be around in 2015, same length of tenure?
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
McCann, Uggla, Heyward, Freeman, Hanson, Teheran, Kimbrel, Venters. If I’m being all warm and sentimental then Prado, Beachy, and EOF also get nods.
I can hope, right?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Andy DuFresne said "Hope is a good thing"
Hanson surprises me. I’d put Delgado or Minor on the list before Hanson. Turnover is amazing.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I just have a hunch
that we’re going to end up bending over backwards for Tommy. I think one of Delgado/Minor is a good bet, but I imagine one of them will end up being traded.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
My long shot “hunch” would be Medlen. I read a kajillion tweets from him yesterday, got the impression he likes Atlanta. Mostly reading between the lines, of course, but he seems like “everybodies buddy”. He might still be living in Atlanta in 35 years.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Going out on just a little bit of a limb, I think we can add Ross to that list.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
He'll be almost 40 by 2015
and Bethancourt will likely be ML-ready (unless we get rid of him, which at the moment I hope we don’t) by then. I don’t know that it would make sense for us to hang onto him.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Good point
I wonder what the long-term plan is for Mac, if they think he can continue to catch about 120 games per year indefinitely, or if they’re going to have to think about transitioning him to another position 3-4 years from now.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
But Ross is only 33 in ’Catcher’s Years’!
Seriously, though, I think he might get one more year as backup for 2013, then hopefully he starts managing in the Braves system.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Ok... So reading around the blogosphere and being incredibly bored at work has led to some new rosterbatory thoughts...
I like convoluted and crazy deals… and in my mind, I would love to see something like this happen….
Reds get Street and Betances (or another of the Yank’s almost ready pitchers)
Yankees get JJ
Braves get Alonso and Nunez
Rockies get Prado
Prospects may need to be thrown in to even things up a bit but I’m only interested in the starting point…
Here’s my justification. Reds are in on Bailey but he’s too expensive (Alonso). In this deal, they get a closer and a SP… Two things they are interested in… The Rockies get their 2B and the Yankees get their SP… The Braves get a potential starting SS and a solid if not great LF for now and later… We also have Chipper insurance by basically replacing Prado w/ Nunez (it seems Nunez has a bit more versatility too).
Like I said, throw around some prospects but how much fun would a deal like that be?
Oh, I am also firmly of the belief that if we trade Prado, Aramis Ramirez should be signed… Where will we play him? Eh… I haven’t the slightest… but he’s a great 3B in a market where no one wants him… Offer him a year in the OF and three years at 3B and see what he says…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
I don’t see any reason for us to make that deal, we’re giving up way more than we receive. I’ve been having similar thoughts about Ramirez though…..probably because he hit like .450 against us.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 21, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Again... the crux of this deal is the prospects we'd get... (and others)
As a starting point… isn’t it fun to think how that 4 way would work though?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't think anyone offers us the value for Prado
that he brings us.
So the only trade I see is Jurrjens for some strong prospects. Then we sign a veteran RH reliever (Moylan, Zumaya, Lidge, Rauch, Rodney, Wood, among others), sign a veteran SS, and a 4th OF type, and call it a day.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
So you don't think Nunez
is a younger, more versatile version of Prado?
Don’t get me wrong, I love him… to death… but a kid (24) that can play 2B, SS, 3B, all 3 OF positions… Oh, and he knows how to put the bat on the ball…
The more I read about him, the less unhappy I am if we get him in a deal that sends Prado somewhere…
I am ok w/ your suggestions for the veteren RH options… (even though I think we don’t really need to spend the money)..
I am sincerely interested in your opinion of the 4 way deal though…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Well... I would be committing mortal sin by comparing MiLB numbers to MLB numbers...
So i will refrain from doing that… I will say this. It looks to me (by stats only) that Nunez is better on the base paths and potentially has more power (long term) than Odarp… I haven’t watched him play so I’d have to defer to those who’ve seen him but I don’t think we’d lose too much if we shipped off Prado and got in Nunez… At least offensively/defensively… I like Prado’s name on the back of a Braves jersey though and would hate to ever play against him…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Nunez looks like a poor man's verson of Prado to me.
He has some power, but probably not as much as Prado does (best case scenario he develops Prado level power; not sure where the idea that he hits for power came from, in 3200 professional plate appearances has hit 36 HR), he is faster, but honestly, SB’s aren’t very important, and he is fairly poor defensively. Most importantly, his overall profession OBP (including his minor league numbers) is around .315.
Pretty much all of Prado's defensive metrics are better than Nunez'
There’s really no reason for the Braves to go after this guy. Defensively he is in the same neighborhood as Brooks Conrad and his offense is Gonzo-level. Why not go with Pastornicky (who’s better defensively) or give Gonzalez a one-year deal if we’re going to just going to concede shortstop as not being an offensive priority?
Nunez seems to be one of the better examples of a player’s uniform grossly inflating his value.
by Uncle Mo's Family Feedbag on Nov 21, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
If Nunez was on our team, people would be saying to trade the bum, lol.
Nunez peak is what Prado is in 2010, and that is being very generous. Nunez is absolutely no MLB starting SS. He can’t field, and can barely hit. The guy is a downgrade at SS over Sea Bass, because Sea Bass is amazing with the glove. In a trade Nunez has next to no value, it is what it is.
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
Wood isn’t leaving Chicago, Lidge will want too much money, and Rodney isn’t a Braves type of player. Zumaya is an interesting thought as a rehab project. If he would be willing to sign a contract back-loaded with incentives, it might be worth a shot.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Cross one potential SS off the list
a few people had mentioned Clint Barmes as a nice no bat, great glove stop gap to Pastornicky and Simmons.
But he got 2 yrs, $10.5m from Pittsburgh.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/pirates-reach-agreement-with-clint-barmes.html
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I actually liked Barmes...
well, I still do… It just sucks he hasn’t put it all together.. I see him as a very good all round player. I think he can still figure it out w/ the bat if he has the right kind of coaching…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
agreed.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Braves should just wait on trading players. Last year when we made a big acquisition (uggla), the Philthies answered right back with Clifford Lee. This would also drive the price up on Jurjenns
by GooberSmoocher on Nov 21, 2011 10:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions
And that worked out so well for them.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 22, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
If only we hadn't signed Uggla
The Phillies wouldn’t have pursued Lee, and maybe the division would be ours…
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
We signed him, too. Funny story!
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
your statement
says that the Phillies “wouldn’t have pursued” Lee had we not “signed Uggla”. We didn’t extend (would have been a better verb) Uggla (January 1, 2011) until AFTER Lee had resigned with the Phils (December 14, 2010).
but don’t let a thing like the facts stand in your way.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 22, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
My statement was composed of humorous sarcasm
but I’m glad you’ve pursued these incredibly useful corrections!
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
perhaps you should learn
to SHOW your sarcasm
and, for the record, it wasn’t humorous. but thanks for proving my point about how much of a thoroughly intelligent and enjoyable person you are.
and, again, you were wrong and PROVEN wrong now you attack. how original.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 23, 2011 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to think that it's obvious
that I don’t think the Phillies went after Cliff Lee “in response” to us getting Uggla.
But yes, you successfully nitpicked my diction. You should be proud, I should be ashamed, etc., etc.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
seeing that diction
is speaking i didn’t successfully nitpick anything you “said”. i corrected your written word. again, do you have ANY idea of your vocabulary?
i proved you wrong. get over yourself.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 27, 2011 7:47 AM EST up reply actions
Awesome, let's keep these fantastic corrections coming!
diction: style of speaking or writing as dependent upon choice of words.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Neat tha tpeople intrinsically make connections between unrelated events.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
“This guy here is…dead.”
“Cross him off then!”
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 22, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not dead yet!
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I recently talked with Frank over at Pinstripe Alley and they don’t seem to like the possible Nunez deal either.
Twitter: @TAlmeyda
That's why I strongly suggest a 3 or even 4 team deal...
I put a plausible starting point up a few posts… I think there would be traction to something like that where multiple teams would benefit… Especially w/ Colorado and Oakland open to trading their closers… We bring them into the fold and then call the Reds… You have four teams with mutual interests in each other players with potential match ups not where they want it to be and bada bing… I so wish I was a GM. I’d have a ball figuring this stuff out… Is there a position in the front office for a dude that just love pitching trade ideas? Put me in coach!
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 22, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
But where do we get what we want?
I don’t think Nunez is anything but a poor replacement from Prado, and I am not sure what the Reds have that we would want—-Alonso could come here and be blocked by Freeman like he already is by Votto. (He is not an OF, otherwise, the Reds wouldn’t be shopping him.)
i get the feeling we aren’t going to do anything this offseason.
25 Man Roster for 2012
1. Brian McCann C
2. Freddie Freeman 1B
3. Dan Uggla 2B
4. Tyler Pastornicky SS
5. Chipper Jones 3B
6. Jason Heyward RF
7. Michael Bourn CF
8. Martin Prado LF
9. Tim Hudson SP
10. Jair Jurrjens SP
11. Tommy Hanson SP
12. Brandon Beachy SP
13. Mike Minor SP
14. Erick Hinske 1B/LF
15. Josh Wilson UTL INF
16. Drew Sutton UTL INF
17. Matt Diaz OF
18. David Ross C
19. Craig Kimbrel RP
20. Jonny Venters RP
21. Eric O’Flaherty RP
22. Kris Medlen RP
23. Cristhian Martínez RP
24/25. any combination of the many internal RP options we have.
============
i mean
its not a bad team. If Heyward and Prado get back to their norms then the offense is instantly better. The bench has more versatility than last year. In the event Bourn goes down I’m guessing someone would just get called up from AAA.
Solid team and capable of 90 + wins.
by drumzalicious on Nov 23, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
If Fredi insists on using the BP like he did last year, we’ll have to carry six relievers.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
well considering
there was a period of time last year that this team had the third best record, I wouldn’t call it a bad team.
So they’re keeping both Sutton and Wilson, neither of whom are on the 40 man, over Conrad?
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
I’m thinking that only one of Sutton or Wilson is going to make the club out of spring training, and the other one is going to be parked at Gwinnett for a while. In a way, we’re using two players to replace Conrad: Sutton or Wilson takes over the role of infield substitute, with Diaz assuming Conrad’s role of PH against LH pitching.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I seriously believe Conrad is gone. Wren has stated that he wants more versatility on the bench and Conrad simply can’t play a position on the field adequately.
by drumzalicious on Nov 24, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
only criticisms
I’d go with Teheran over Minor. He is going to put up better numbers over the course of a season.
I also think that it makes sense to move a pitcher to make space for Teheran. I think Minor should have to prove he is worth making a trade. If he proves it in the first half, we will move someone mid season.
I am the complete opposite. I think Teheran needs to be the one in the minors proving he needs a trade. Minor has been solid for us in his few spot starts. To me he has a lot more poise and has better location with his pitches than Teheran. Now Teheran does have more upside than Minor but he is also more raw and I would prefer he polish his stuff in AAA and not the bigs.
by drumzalicious on Nov 27, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
dude is mad young
he is so far ahead of the curve its ridiculous. That he is this close to the majors already is insane. Minor however, can be compared to countless others out there that show no indication of becoming aces.
thinking long term
teheran has the stuff to be an ace.
Minor does not
JJ already is an ace
Hanson is an ace
hudson is an ace
Beachy isn’t in question.
dont trade away an ace for a guy that can never be one! Teheran can be an ace. only beachy could be replaced by minor and i am not a fan of that. Teheran has the potential to be better than all of them,
But Minor certainly has the potential...
…to be as good as JJ. So if JJ is already an ace, how can Minor not have the potential to be an ace?
I am not sure that's true
He seems to have the potential to be as talented as a pitcher as JJ, but do you really see Minor putting up back to back healthy seasons of a sub 3 ERA? before he is 25? And I think JJ will do it again. I just am not ready to agree that Minor has proven he can be an allstar pitcher setting records for most consecutive starts giving up 2 runs or less over 6 innings. It depends on if we are evaluating JJ based on his success, or what people decide is his talent level. Maybe the consensus on his talent level is that Minor can compare, but I am not sure Minor is capable of the level of success JJ has proven
Don't get me wrong, JJ is a good pitcher.
But if you consider him an ace purely on ERA numbers, which have some luck involved, then the whole question becomes semantics. Could Minor, with some luck, post back to back sub 3 ERA seasons? Sure. He’s probably really a 3.50 ERA guy, but then again, JJ is probably really a 3.30 to 3.50 ERA guy. Could Minor do it before he is 25? Extremely unlikely given his age, which is of course due to his playing college ball before turning pro.
I don’t know that I’d term JJ an “ace” at this point either, although there are certainly teams in the ML where he would be at the top of the rotation. For a good team, right now JJ slots in as a very good #2 or #3 starter, which is precisely how the Braves are using him. In order to be considered an ace, JJ has to show that he can do what he did in the first half more consistently, and avoid some of the injury problems he’s had. Which could happen.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I keep going back to what McCann said over and over. That Minor had figured it out. I hope we go with Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy and Minor out of ST. See what happens with Hanson’s shoulder and make the appropriate move later in the season. It won’t bother me one bit to delay Teheran’s service clock. Teheran being a FA at age 27 is not the best case scenario for the Braves.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Can you or someone give more details on his service clock?
How do the starts he has already made effect that? does he have to wait till a certain date for his first start next season for anything to matter at all? What is the earliest he could pitch and still give us a service clock advantage? And would he still have plenty of season for it not to take away his shot at ROY—which a generational talent deserves.
pipe dream here and i’m not expecting it to happen but given that Willingham is no longer tied to draft pick compensation I’d love to see the Braves deal Jurrjens to Boston for Jed Lowrie and pieces and then turn around and sign Willingham to a 3 year deal for around 20 million (with a majority of the money coming in 2013 once Hudson’s and Chipper’s money is off the books). The money for Willingham is created by the Jurrjens trade, meaning there’s no need to unload Prado as well and so the bench becomes one of the best in baseball. Lineup is also very solid all throughout and it makes sense for the braves given budget. In 2013, Prado slides in at third and the SS situation resolves itself with whoever plays better out of Pastornicky and Lowrie, the other becoming a super utility guy
by McCann's the Man on Nov 23, 2011 6:45 PM EST reply actions
If Willingham is signed for more than one year
….or two years if the price is under $13M, I may go buy myself a Phillies jersey. That would be incredibly idiotic use of resources. I’m not a fan of signing the guy even without draft picks, and definitely not for three years.
Please choose a different pipe, and do not pass yours to the Braves front office!
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 23, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
if the stats are to be believed then Willingham’s defense isn’t as bad as it’s made out to be and I imagine his issues are largely tied to range, which having Bourn in center negates some of that. He gets on base, hits for power, and it doesn’t appear there’s a big market for him, I think he can be had for much less than he’s worth. I would prefer going two years but I imagine it’ll take three to get him, at least at this point in time. He hits lefties extremely well and just is an overall good hitter, something this team could certainly use
by McCann's the Man on Nov 23, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
If the stats don’t think Willingham is that bad then I think they’re wrong. That guy is one of the worst fielding outfielders ever.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Actually, they do
I went to Fangraphs and generated a listing of outfielder UZR/150 rankings for 2011, with a minimum of 250 innings. Willingham rates 128th out of 157, with a -10.2 rating (tied with Lance Berkman and Luke Scott). Incidentally, Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz are both just a few places ahead of Willingham.
(That leads to a discussion of how reliable UZR/150 is as a measure of outfielder defensive ability. I’ll be honest and say that I don’t totally understand everything about that stat, but it’s basically supposed to be a measure of both range and skill with the glove. Willingham’s fielding percentage was near the league average at .988. But I did a sort of outfielders by innings played, and most of the guys around Willingham in the list — Will Venable, Andres Torres, Nyjer Morgan, Rick Ankiel, Brennen Boesch — all had a lot more putouts than Willingham did. Nate McLouth had 10 more PO than Willingham in 110 fewer innings.)
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
He does well
…when the ball is hit directly at him, otherwise, he’s an adventure in the field…definitely enough of a downgrade defensively to negate any perceived offensive upgrade (which I don’t see much of anyway). Certainly bad enough defensively to not want to sink 3 years or ~7M per to a guy on the wrong side of his prime.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 24, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
You're looking at one only one season, of only one of the available statistics.
For his career, he’s got a UZR/150 of -5 in the outfield. DRS think he’s absolutely neutral (+1 on his career, calling it neutral since DRS seems to lean slightly toward positive numbers, never exactly zeroing out).
So he’s below average, and not terrible.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
But look at the breakdown of the UZR numbers.
Basically, he is immobile. His UZR components are all fine except for Range, which is horrific. He is a statue.
That's like, the biggest component
And it is for every other outfielder it’s also comparing him to. So he’s, as I said, not terrible. Definitely below average, definitely not a guy who’s going to pick you up out there, but he doesn’t seem like he’s a Garret Anderson either.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
He's not Garrett Anderson yet...
…but he isn’t exactly young, and by the end of a 3 year contract, he could easily be Garrett Anderson. (And I am assuming you are referring to Anderson’s year with the Braves—-before then Anderson wasn’t as bad, and probably was around Willingham’s level.)
Just wondering.. How would having a great defensive CF (like Michael Bourn) affect the range component for Willingham?
I believe
(and it’s somewhat sketchy, at this point), but if a guy with limited range plays next to a guy with excellent range, generally, it makes the guy with limited range look even worse, because he’ll often yield if the other guy is a real stud. The guy with the great range will end up making even more plays that tend to be outside of his zone, his range will go up, and the other guy is making fewer plays out of, or even in, his own zone.
Of course, there’s also the A-Rod effect. This happens more with infielders, I think. What happened to A-rod (in theory, at least), is that his defensive position at third base shifted further off the line because he was playing next to Jeter, with limited range and a weak arm. As a result, he makes fewer plays along the line than you’d expect. Not sure if that’s accurate, but it’s sometimes given as an explanation for why he was rated excellently as a shortstop, and became a below average third baseman just two years later.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
If you go buy yourself a Phillies jersey for any other reason than because you were out of toilet paper, then I no longer have any use for you, and neither does anyone else on this site. Good day, sir.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 23, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
Lovely
Ever heard of the English technique of exaggeration to make a point?
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 24, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
I said GOOD DAY!
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 24, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
pelican.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 30, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
No, this actually mkes sense to me
Someone like Willingham, on the current market, might be worth about $8-9 million per year, and he’d still give you a big of surplus value. His defense is not great, but it’s not terrible. Just below average, bad. He’ll help you out with the bat. If he signed for three years at $20 million, less than $7 million annually, I’d be quite happy with that. Then I’d just find playing time for Prado wherever I have to. If we get a good return on Jurrjens in this scenario, I think it’s a strong 2012 team.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
He’s not worth $8-9M to the Braves. He’s not that much of an impact to the team. We had an historic collapse that cost the team the playoffs due to a very, very poor hitting approach team-wide. We’ve already examined the DRASTIC difference from career norms to 2011 OBPs for every Braves hitter, even Bourn in his time in Atlanta. A different approach with the lineup on hand would create a top-10 run-scoring offense. Willingham costs the team on defense from what we currently have and does not provide much, if any, value above what would be out there in LF elsewise offensively.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 24, 2011 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
i wasn’t advocating spending 8-9 million per on him but at around 6 million per year i think thats good value. I also disagree that he wouldn’t provide value in LF over what we have. There’s a noticeable difference in the offense of the two, so then it becomes a question of how much of a difference there is in the defense of the two. Plus you get the benefit of being able to shift Prado around
by McCann's the Man on Nov 24, 2011 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
There’s really not a noticeable difference in their offense. That’s the problem. They’re very different offensively, but it’s a matter of what the team needs more than one being outright better than the other. It’d be like comparing Michael Bourn to Paul Konerko. Both great hitters, but only one is important to THIS team as it is made up.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 24, 2011 4:15 AM EST up reply actions
There's a very noticeable and measure difference in their offense
See above.
I also don’t know why you would compare Michael Bourn to Paul Konerko, offensively. Okay, Konerko is a better hitter, so what? He’s not even able to play average defense at first base, one of the easiest defensive positions on the field, while Bourn plays good defense in centerfield. He doesn’t need to hit like Paul Konerko.
Of course, having a centerfielder who can hit like Konerko and play gold glove defense is very, very nice (I sure miss Andruw Jones).
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
You're making a silly case
Martin Prado career wRC+ 107
Josh Willingham career wRC+ 123
He’s a significant offensive upgrade in left field. His defense isn’t that bad. I’d take him at $20 million for three years. Will Wren? I doubt it…Makes it easier for me to look smart in hindsight, though, when I can point back to this moment if he signs for something in that range.
I’m not giving him an 8 figure annual deal, not even close, but if he signs for less than $8 million per, a team is going to get a solid return out of him.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Two things
“His defense isn’t that bad”
Yes, it is. It wasn;t good in his mid 20s. Now that he’s entering his mid 30s, it’s even worse and borderline DHish.
“He’s a significant offensive upgrade in left field.”
Again, if we’re talking mid 20s Willingham. Mid 30s is a probable .320s or worse obp and nearing that age where walk/HR with high K players tend to fall off a cliff.
Plus he’s also a type A free agent. And likely to continue to decline in subsequent seasons when he demands a multi-year deal.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I think you may be slightly over-estimating the effects of decline due to age. Why would a hitter with a career .361 OBP suddenly start OBP’ing .320 or less simply because he turned 33? I understand that he is entering the decline phase of his career, but I doubt it would be such a sudden and dramatic drop off. Instead, I’m expecting a moderate rebound from his fluky season last year, but falling a little short of his career averages—maybe something in the realm of .260/.340/.460.
Yeah, it’s not like he OBP’d 30 points under his career average last season!
Oh…wait…he only posted a .330 OBP?
Huh.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 26, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
For one, there’s a big difference between .332 OBP and one lower than .320. Furthermore, I see last season as more of an aberration than a sign of a sharp decline. It was really a wierd season for Willingham—he saw an enormous increase in strikeouts, but with it came a huge increase in his HR rate. That combined with an increase in O-Swing % signals to me a change in hitting approach rather than a decline in skills.
He also had a poor walk rate (on the lower end of his career numbers), and is about as speedy as Gilbert Brown running bases. His true full seasons as a starter, he’s more of a .345-.350 guy…and that’s before he hit his mid-30s….no thanks.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 26, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, I want the Braves to steer clear of him. I just think he happens to have a few decent years left in him that could benefit some team that’s willing to give him money that the Braves can’t afford to spend on only a slight improvement.
by swainzy on Nov 26, 2011 11:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, they do some times...
and Willingham may or may not join the Sexson’s, Vaughan’s, etc on that list of guys who did. The thought is, as their bat speed dips a bit, opposing pitchers are less careful with them than in the past when they’d walk considerably. With more strikes comes fewer walks, and a declining bat speed to take advantage of those increased strikes. Combine a stark drop in obp/bb, and a sharp rise in k, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
That argument would hold water with me if it wasn’t for the fact that Willingham bounced back in a huge way last year after he came off the DL. Take a look at his line from July 7 (when he returned) to the end of the season: .259/.353/.537.890. The second half of the season saw his walk rate climb back up to his career norms, and his slugging reached career-high levels. Players in the midst of a drastic and career-closing decline don’t hit the best they ever have for more than half of their season, especially when it’s the final half. To me, this indicates a player who was hampered by a nagging injury for the first half of the season that caused his numbers to dip, was given time to allow it to heal, and came back unhindered and hit better than he ever had before.
I agree with you
Willingham is going to be good next year and the year after that. I’d give him a three year deal, and sweat through his 2014 season, if that was what it took to acquire him. His career defense in LF is about -5/160 according to UZR, and according to DRS, it’s actually closer to neutral. You can expect he’ll be below average on defense in the outfield, but there’s nothign to say that he’s immediately terrible.
I don’t think you can make the case that he’s declining any more than you can make the same case for Martin Prado. Both guys had down years last season, and Willingham has been a better hitter than Prado for years.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Yep
because Prado is ENTERING his prime, and Willingham is EXITING his. That’s why he has more evidence, albeit basically the same amount of full seasons as Willingham is as fragile as an 80 y/o Osteoporosis patient.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 27, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
That's funny
But he and Prado have missed almost the exact same number of games over the past 3 years. If Willingham is injury prone, so is Prado.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
I figured after my depressing post I should make a nicer one
I think the Braves should most definitely go after a veteran reliever. Someone who has proven to be able to handle the rigors of the season and be able to give us another solid arm at the back of the pen. I say we go for Frank Francisco. The guy has been solid as a reliever for Texas and Toronto. Both of which do a lot of playing in hitters parks and he has solid numbers with those teams. I think getting him for 2 years with an option would be a good pickup. Say 2/8 with an option and a few incentives. This takes pressure off having Medlen start the season in the BP and lets him go to AAA and stretch out as a reliever. Same for Vizcaino.
After that I’d let the season open up with the team the way it is. Prado or Jurrjens should only be traded if we get a serious package for one of them. They are entirely too valuable to this team. If we can get someone that would be a clear upgrade over Prado offensively then I say go for it but the chances of that are kind of remote unless the team decides to go out and trade some prospects. Something I think we should actually do for a player like Adam Jones. The guy has been lack luster with his OBP however everything else is pretty solid. The Orioles are almost in complete rebuilding mode and I think that Jones would be a perfect fit here. They have a need for pitching now and years to come and we have some to spare.
I’d say:
Minor
Spruill
Simmons
Our lineup then becomes:
Bourn
Heyward
Chip
Uggla
McCann
Jones
Freeman
Pastornicky
From there I’d trade Prado for a CF prospect. We already have a couple of guys who could plug in as utility infielders in Drew Sutton and Josh Wilson.
Adam Jones is whack
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
So we are giving up prospects...
…downgrading our offense and defense in LF, giving up Minor, who could be in the rotation this year, and getting rid of our Chipper insurance. Why? Are we trying to make our 2012 team worse?
i disagree that we are downgrading our defense and offense in LF. Jones has a lower OBP but higher SLG than Prado. However I believe that he can improve his OBP while Prado can’t really improve his SLG too much.
by drumzalicious on Nov 28, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
It depends on the baseline you are talking about with Prado.
Prado can obviously increase his slugging from 2011. Probably not from 2010. On the other hand, in 2010 and 2009, Prado was easily a better hitter than Adam Jones ever has been. I am not sure why you think Adam Jones can improve his OBP when he already has 2400 MLB plate appearances and is 26 years old. But hey, if you like toolsy guys and think you can fix all of their skill problems (in this case, as in many, patience/pitch recognition) Adam Jones is definitely your kind of guy. Most of the time, however, a player—whether toolsy or not—-doesn’t suddenly learn the skills well into his career.
I wouldn't spend a lot of money on relievers
Fangraphs has an interesting post up about the futility of giving multi-year contracts to relievers, But even disregarding that, it just isn’t a need area for the Braves. We have nearly all of the pieces we need in house.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I am still of the opinion
that we should sign Grady Sizemore. I am rosterbating hard for him. Why? Because of the dreaded “eye-test”. I know he’s a ball player, and as a former collegiate ball player, I’m saying for the small amount it will take to sign him, I want him manning left field for us. Really badly. Please, FW. PLEASE. Sign him and take a chance. What if he turns into GS of old? for 5 mil? Cmon kids! He’s gotta be worth THAT look, doesn’t he? I need to buy more lotion, my rosterbating has become dry.
Sizemore re-signed with Cleveland yesterday
For $5M.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Yes he did, but I really wish we could have signed him for a cheap two year deal.
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
by chicagobullies on Nov 24, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Don't know about that
Sizemore hasn’t had a good season since 2008, and he will turn 30 next August. If we could have gotten him on an incentive deal, then maybe.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I know it's not a perfect fit
the idea of trading for Maicer Izturis seems like a solid one. He’s a pretty good fielder all over the infield, and has filled in admirably at short when Aybar was hurt. No power at all but he has some degree of on base ability. At one year 3.8 million he’s not totally overpriced either.
Maybe JJ for Izturis, Jean Segura and a B Prospect would be a decent deal.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
Macier Izturis
Thanks for putting me onto an interesting bit of reading… I didn’t know anything about Izturis, so I looked him up on Fangraphs. You were right about no power, but he does seem to get on base. And I’ll be damned if I know how he does it, since his batting average is not great and he doesn’t walk that much really. UZR/150 gives him major plus numbers almost across the board, although he did unaccountably get a 6.4 at 2B last year - was there something going on with the Angels’ infield?
There are two things that bother me about him. One, he strikes out a lot for a guy with no power; 65 K’s in about 500 PA last year, and the trend seems to be getting gradually worse over the past several seasons. Second, over the past two seasons, he’s only played about 190 innings at SS; most of his time has been at 2B and 3B. I wouldn’t mind having him for a utility infielder, but if the specific intent is for him to start the season at SS, I’m not sure about that.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I just inadvertently found out how to do strikethru
That was supposed to say he got a -6.4 UZR/150 at 2B last year.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Strikethru
Strikethru, strikethru, strikethru. Cool!
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I see the same problems in his game that you pointed out, but if he could be good enough to start at short for a season or 2/3 of one until Pastornicky is deemed ready It could be a decent move.
We would also shed about 1.4 million in trading JJ, and if we could get Segura or another middle of the diamond prospect it would be less than atrocious for the Bravos.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
I see your point. And frankly, I’ll take a guy who gets on base vs. a guy like Gonzo who has some power but is so horribly streaky and inconsistent.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I wouldn't worry about his lack of recent playing time at SS...
…it is because they have Aybar but not much at 3B. He’s an average option, but I am not sure he is enough better than the fodder we could sign cheaply through free agency to be worth giving up a lot for. And the Angels aren’t going to give us Segura in all likelihood.
They probably wont give up Segura, but he’s the only interesting middle of the diamond prospect they have right now that’s why I included him.
You may be right about getting a free agent for less, but I’m just trying to figure out how to get a decent glove and a .320 OPB out of SS for less than 5 million.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
I’m just happy that we did not acquire Delmon Young.
"Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject, so you know you are getting the best possible information."
There's still time!
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
dude
we got beat last night. that stings. however, this team needed a massive wake up call. If it gets pissed off, I think it can win the NC.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 27, 2011 7:40 AM EST up reply actions
Another unperfect fit
Yonder Alonso is avaliable. Looks like he can rake, but a LH bat, and probably a liability in LF. Can also be a backup 1B.
Thinking JJ+Hinske for Alonso+ prospect.
Hinske is because we wouldn’t have room for him, and the backup 1B job would be filled.
Braves might match up with the Reds and another team in a 3 way deal. Somebody that needs a 1B and can spare a decent RH LF. Reds want a #2 pitcher, we’ve got about half a dozen to choose from.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Over on Sickel's site there's an interesting proposal
How bout a 3 team deal involving us, the Reds and Rockies.
Reds get:
Jair Jurrjens – SP
Rockies get:
Yonder Alonso – 1B
Martin Prado – IF/OF
Braves get:
Charlie Blackmon – OF
Nolan Arenado – 3B
Tyler Matzek – SP
Yorman Rodrigez – OF
hmmmm
Reds get:
Jair Jurrjens – SP
JJ Hoover – SP/RP
Rockies get:
Yonder Alonso – 1B
Martin Prado – IF/OF
Braves get:
Charlie Blackmon – OF
Nolan Arenado – 3B
Billy Hamilton – SS/2B
Yorman Rodrigez – OF
anyone think that could work?
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 27, 2011 7:43 AM EST up reply actions
Neither is realistic...
…because the Rockies won’t move Arenado and the Reds won’t move Hamilton, but I don’t see the point for the Braves. Bascially, we downgrade at two positions (SP and LF) in 2012 without getting any 2012 upgrades. If we were rebuilding in 2012 that would make sense, but I think we have a pretty good shot at contending, so I don’t see why we should do this.
Wren"s primary, number 1 objective (IMO) is to make a big move for a quality RH batting LF to help position us for a championship run in 2012; and obtaining a CF prospect for down the road is his (very) secondary objective.
Hmmm...
….a quality RH bat for LF. Wait, don’t we already have one when he doesn’t have a staph infection?
Well, yes, indeed, we do. And I am totally on-board and right there with you on the anti-trado Prado bandwagon.
On the other hand, I am of the belief that our GM correctly views the team’s roster as being very close to a championship caliber level, but definitely needing more offensive firepower in the everyday lineup; and corectly recognizes that LF is likely the only position that can be significantly upgraded.
how about
Jurrjens to Reds, Alonso to Tampa, Upton to Atlanta. Of course prospects would be added to balance it out.
by drumzalicious on Nov 26, 2011 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
I love his bat if we could find a way to get both him and Freeman in the lineup without having another terribly embarrassing defensive player.
I wonder if he could be worse in left than Garrett Anderson was for us? Is that possible?
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
No way. LoMo’s got a decent bat but he’s a DH waiting to happen.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
He's not a DH.
He’s a first baseman. He is just blocked by Gabby Sanchez in Florida, so they moved him to left, with the usual results.
I would be down for it except
He had a considerable OPS and BA drop off this year (he also played double the games in 2011 vs. 2010), but he is 24 and still has one year before arbitration. Maybe if Wren could finagle a prospect too I would be in favor. I don’t think ATLandUNC is right about the DH part this early in his career. I believe we have a guy that had his own 2nd year slump. Let them fight back into the spotlight together.
I might go for that trade straight up. We still don’t know how JJ’s health is going to work out long term. The main negative on LoMo for the Braves is that he’s another LH hitter, which is not really what we need. But I’ll bet he’d be a lot happer in Atlanta playing for Fredi and re-united with Uggla.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
His splits are fine. His handedness isn’t a concern.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Nov 28, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
yes
you’re talking about someone who has 5 years of team control left vs someone with 2. Yea J.J. is more proven but a 24 year old thats a solid hitter with 20-25HR power and hasn’t reached his peak yet is more valuable IMO
by drumzalicious on Nov 26, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Assuming you meant Mike Stanton
yes. Although we’d have to include a really good prospect with JJ, and that probably still wont even get it done.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 27, 2011 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yes.
It seems like an easy fit, with maybe another prospect thrown their way.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Nov 28, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
How is it an easy fit?
Where would LoMo play for us? When defense is factored in, Prado is better in left, and Freeman isn’t going to move off first for him. That means LoMo only plays when Prado is covering third or second. Seems like a lot to give up for a bench guy.
I believe that if we did get LoMo, Prado would be traded.
by drumzalicious on Nov 28, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
But how would that improve us?
LoMo is about the same level hitter Prado is, his defense is bad everywhere but first, and he doesn’t have the positional flexibility.
If you got him for Jurrjens, you could keep both LoMo and Prado
letting Prado play LF, RF, 3B, 2B, and 1B when the need arises to give any of them rest. We’d just need a SS at that point, and could trade Hinske for a lottery ticket prospect.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 29, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
It would improve us financially. We have to realize that these deals with Prado and Jurrjens are probably financially driven. They want a bat for J.J. thats as good as Prado but cheaper with more team control. They want a CF prospect for Prado who could take over for Bourn next year because they believe he will be to expensive to retain.
I believe Wren is just trying to find the same level of offense but for a cheaper price. We have to still add a SS and probably a BP arm or two to this team before declaring our roster “complete”. A few extra mil could go a long way for Wren.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
No
“We are not looking to deal one particular player and we are not looking to cut payroll. We’re just looking to improve our team.”
Wren is open to any ideas that might improve this team. We are listening to offers. This doesn’t mean we are going to trade them. If trading Prado or JJ helps this team, then he will make the trade but it will not be because of financial issues.
My positive vision at this point...
I’d like the lineup to look like this at the start of the year, then when these numbers play out for the first half, I’d like to see the lineup adjusted to bring Pastornicky to the top of the lineup and Heyward to the third spot. That way we would have a hundred stolen bases at the top of the lineup – two guys with real base stealing speed, both with good on base and contact skills hitting 1-2. It would move chipper between McCann and Freeman where he will get and give good protection. Before the move, the 8 spot is a good place for Pastornicky as it is, as he can take a walk and steal a base to get into scoring position for the top of the lineup. It’s obviously a low pressure spot and a good place to let him get his confidence.
1. CF. Bourn – 295 avg. 350 obp. 60 SBs
2. RF. Heyward – 285 avg. 375 obp, 15 SBs, 25 HR
3. 3B. Jones – 275 avg. 350 obp, 15 HR
4. C. McCann – 295 avg. 370 obp, 30 HR
5. 2B. Uggla – 270 avg. 350 obp, 35 HR
6. 1B. Freeman – 290. Avg. 350 obp, 25 HR
7. LF. Prado – 290 avg, 350 obp, 15 HR
8. SS. Pastornicky – 275 avg. 350 obp, 25 SBs
9. Pitcher
Adjusted for second half
10. CF. Bourn – 295 avg. 350 obp. 60 SBs
11. SS. Pastornicky – 275 avg. 350 obp, 25 SBs
12. RF. Heyward – 285 avg. 375 obp, 15 SBs, 25 HR
13. 2B. Uggla – 270 avg. 350 obp, 35 HR
14. . McCann – 295 avg. 370 obp, 30 HR
15. 3B. Jones – 275 avg. 350 obp, 15 HR
16. 1B. Freeman – 290. Avg. 350 obp, 25 HR
17. LF. Prado – 290 avg, 350 obp, 15 HR
18. Pitcher
We need a backup infielder
Bench –
3B/SS/2B
1B Hinske 250/320 10 HR off bench
OF Constanza 310/360 20 SBs off bench
OF Diaz 300/350 4 HR off bench vs LHP
C Ross
3B/SS/2B comes on as a defensive sub for Chipper at third
Prado spells Chipper at third
3B/SS/2B spells Pastornicky at short.
Constanza comes in as a defensive sub for Prado
Constanza/Diaz play for Prado in left Diaz against lefties Constanza against rhp
constanza/Diaz backup/spell Bourn and Heyward
Hinske backsup/spells Freeman
ross backsup/spells mccann
Constanza pinch hits to get on base (especially against RHP)
Constanza is a pinch runner
Diaz pinch hits to get on base against LHP (hopefully power returns)
Hinske pinch hits for power against RHP
Ross (should be) power pinch hitter against LHP
3B/SS/2B – don’t know tools, switch hitting with on base skills would be nice
EEEK
I mean ambitious and would love to see TP do well enough in ST and the early part of the season to earn the 2nd slot in the batting order, but I hate the idea of having Prado hit 8th. Heck There isnt anyone in that line up I would like to be put at the 8th spot except for Pastornicky because of his youth. Of course that is allowing the we don’t pick up a short term Short Stop in the mean time. Also, would King Chipper deign to bat 6th, I mean he already peed on the 3rd spot to mark his territory. And I guess we have all excepted Brooksy isn’t gonna be on a bench next year. Either way, like the idealism on Pastornicky.
Constanza will not have 20 stolen bases.
And you’re a bit optimistic with the young shortstop as well.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 27, 2011 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
1) Nobody bats under .270,
2) Nobody OB%’s under .350
3) ???
4)……profit!
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Well, uh, actually
you really don’t need step 3 at all.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Assuming all of that actually happens...
…why would you swap Pastornicky and Prado? With those numbers, Prado would be an ideal #2 hitter—-a guy who gets on base, but has the doubles power to drive in the leadoff guy.
because
Pastornicky brings some speed to the top and is a more patient hitter than Prado, which should help him with Bourn ahead. I just feel like hitting 2nd was really really hard on prado with bourn hitting first
Not so much
Put Pastornicky’s speed in front of the pitcher to get on base, move quickly to second via the hitter and then you have a solid slap hitter in Bourn to get Pastornicky over and get on himself with Prado having the power to bring them both home. It’s personal preference, and I know ideal lineup structure through the saber community will tell me I’m wrong, but I would prefer high OBP with solid speed at 1, high contact with good gap power at 2, and blazing speed at 8 (NL) or 9 (AL) for when the lineup is turning over. Imagine Prado at his 2009-2010 level with speed like Pastornicky and Bourn on base for him with less than two outs…
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
I would prefer high OBP with solid speed at 1, high contact with good gap power at 2
Seems right to me. You want guys that can get on base at the top as well as not strikeout at a ton. Heyward might be better suited there, but Prado is a good candidate also.
The problem with batting Prado 2 is that he’s a team guy who will try to be the type of #2 hitter that Fredi wants. Which is a guy that will take pitches until he has 2 strikes if the leadoff hitter is on in front of him, then tries to put down a bunt or ground out the other way so the runner can move up a base.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
yea
He’s such a team player that it seemed like he was solely focused on moving Bourn over instead of looking for his pitch and spraying the ball everywhere. If he revert back to his old ways, then I think he would be fine in the 2 hole if Heyward isn’t there.
Just out of curiosity
would someone post a link for a list of available SS in the MLB. I know its a small list, but I haven’t found a good one.
From Yahoo Sports
In the order they have them ranked among all FA:
4. Reyes
8. Rollins
72. Ronny Cedeno
73. AGon
74. Furcal
88. Yuniesky Betancourt
That’s it, other than some all-purpose utilityman types like Aaron Miles. Mark DeRosa is available, but the last two years he’s been a shadow of his old self.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I think we should sign RHP Luis Ayala
He would be pretty cheap, add a veteran presence to the BP, and did very well last year in arguably one of the toughest divisions to pitch in, throughout all of baseball.
Given he did only pitch roughly 60 innings last year, and his career does not match his performance from last year, but most likely he figured something out. He pitched very well for the Yankees, and I do know ERA is not the best measure of a RP, but he did post a very respectable 2.09 ERA, and he also racked up a 50% ground-ball rate.
Wren might consider P-Mo, too expensive, so with Ayala’s right-handedness lol, his experience/ veteran presence, his cost efficiency, and his ability to induce a groundball (yeah 50% GB/FB rate is pretty incredible) Ayala could be just what the doctor ordered for The Braves.
IMHO, it really would not hurt The Braves to sign him anyway, even if P-Mo does return…..I know it is not exactly, that great rosterbation material, but it still should spark some interesting afterthoughts…..What you guys think????
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
throws up in mouth
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
why?
i LOVE it from our side. The Jays wouldn’t do it, though.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 27, 2011 7:45 AM EST up reply actions
lol
its not that bad. If Rasmus bounced back to that 850 OPS then it would be a steal.
by drumzalicious on Nov 27, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Well that’s just the problem: which year of his is the aberration — 2011or 2010? The weird thing is that during his breakout year (2010) his strikeouts went through the roof…walks, too. I haven’t figured that kid out yet, but he would scare me.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I don’t think it’s that bad. It’s a high risk/reward proposition. Maybe he rests the attitude questions and puts up great CF numbers, and maybe he turns in Milton Bradley. With our depth at pitching, I’d take it in a heartbeat. But I agree with dude below that the Jays probably wouldn’t take it.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Nov 28, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 27, 2011 4:46 AM EST up reply actions
What are your expectations of next weeks Winter Meetings?
Will Wren find a suitable trade partner for Prado or Jurrjens, or someone else? He obviously values both Prado and Jurrjens, will he be able to use them for a definite upgrade?
Does Wren trust Hanson’s shoulder enough to trade Jurrjens and use both Minor and Teheran out of ST, leaving Delgado and Medlen as our only real insurance?
Any expectation of a blockbuster deal? He’s talked to a lot of GM’s since saying our players are available, anybody think he might try to bury the Marlins and Nats before they get any footing with FA signings, rather than risk playing catch-up?
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I expect it’s gonna get REAL busy next week – for all teams, but Atlanta included. Now that the CBA is done and everybody’s had a couple of weeks (by then) to digest its impact (whatever that may be), the dealing will begin in earnest.
The Braves seem (to me, at least) to be earlier players than later ones. Depends on the trade partner as to whether that idea is reciprocated. But if this story about Wandy R is anywhere near right, then it’s definitely a Seller’s pitching market… meaning Wren can call Captain Kirk and Name His Price for JJ.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
There was also this article mentioning that the Red Sox are looking to add 2 starting pitchers, and that Joe Saunders, Francisco Liriano, and Gio Gonzalez (in addition to Wandy) are among the top starting pitchers potentially available in trade.
So let’s see then: The Yankees need at least one, the Red Sox 2, the Rangers maybe one, the White Sox at least one, probably ten more teams could use one…. yep, JJ gets moved. It’s a matter of whether you’ve got more cash (for Wandy) or players (for a JJ trade) available.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Sorry
Just noticed the “probably 10 more teams” line.
Reds, Marlins and Nats, probably the Angels…
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I think Wren has cooled out on the chattering and stirring of the hot stove pot in order to attempt to create an aura of patiently waiting and listening for a too-good-to-pass-up offer for JJ, Prado or both, but is actually very much looking to strike a solid deal as soon as possible.
I think there’s a good chance he gets something done next week.
Hmmmm.... didn't see this one coming...
MONDAY, 12:13pm: A friend of [Jonathan] Broxton tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that all things being equal, the reliever wants to be close to his Georgia home. Sherman finds the Braves unlikely, but thinks the Marlins or Rays make sense. Abbott told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times this morning that a tentative deal should be reached in the next few days, but his client won’t be returning to the Dodgers.
If he’s fully healthy. this could very well be an interesting way to give the bullpen some quality days off.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Forgot to add...
> Could see the Marlins doing this: but they are going hard after big-money free agents, and the general uncertainty of their roster might not necessarily appeal to Broxton (IMHO). They were, however, recently linked with Huston Street, so they could be a player for Broxton.
> Don’t see the Rays doing this: they have Farnsworth, and they seldom go with injury-risk/FA guys. Generally, I thought they were happy with how their pen turned out (after a near-100% turnover) in 2011.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
really… that’s a scoop on Joel Sherman, dude. Nice one.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Yes, this team really needs to add some veteran relievers
They were so huge for us last year. We can’t count on those young guys.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
In all seriousness, this could be a decent thing: Broxton wants to “re-establish his value” amd the Braves need to replace the Linebrink/Sherrill guesome-twosome. This would be a good move to add a guy who could take the lower-leverage end-of-game innings to give the kids a break… just like we all know is necessary.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
especially from his end
knowing that the braves coaching staff could help him perform at his best… If I was trying to re-establish myself as a pitcher, I think I would go to the Braves.
I'm not going to pay over $1 million to a relief pitcher
When I have much better options who are making the league minimum. Getting relievers on the free agent market can be a total, total crapshoot.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
MLBTR – the Royals are going to sign Broxton to a 1 year deal. I guess that means Soria will soon be on the block.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 29, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
nope
he’s setting up Soria. They are moving Crow to the rotation.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Wow... it's a $4m deal for KC
Supposedly $4m to be a setup guy for them. That seems high to me.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Value
Matt Garza is on the block and was curious as to what his value is as compared to Jurjjens. I would think Garza is
higher based solely on him being a strikeout pitcher as we all know k’s are the only way to evaluate pitchers.
Though this is another pitcher on the market I still feel JJ will be traded b/c of all the options we have internally. Am really curious as to what other opinions are.
I just think that
Most of these teams wanting pitchers are going to come away unsatisfied, and that midseason there is going to be just as much of a demand for pitchers. That said, Wren will need to be blown away to start 2012 with two rookies and without one of their aces. It seems to be something we are willing to do, but we have no reason to move. We would be at a certain advantage to keep a rookie in the minors and boost JJ’s value with the first half of his season.
Pirates would consider offers for Andrew McCutchen
It says he’s as untouchable as it gets, and they would need to be blown away, but it would be amazing to get this guy.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 28, 2011 6:50 PM EST reply actions
i just came on here to post this
we need a whole new Rosterbation thread JUST for this.
I’d do:
Minor
Vizcaino
Bethancourt
Simmons
Lipka
by drumzalicious on Nov 28, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
The thought of Heyward and McCuthen growing up through the league together....
we’re gonna need some tissues in here people!
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 28, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
You might be right, there…. that we’ll need a whole thread just for Cutch.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Love the fact that
the idea was just proposed and we have already shortened McCutchen’s name to an endearing Cutch!
Package for McCutchen
would have to be more than that. I’d say you’re looking at something like this:
Delgado
Vizcaino
Salcedo
Bethancourt
Simmons
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 29, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
I don't get this
McCutchen is untouchable, but the Pirates will entertain offers for him? Which is it? Do the Pirates think they’re close to competing, or do they think they need to rebuild?
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
The same team that shipped us McLouth. I’d just hope Cutch wouldn’t end up like McLouth
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 1:36 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
i know he’s a better player than McLouth. Still no one saw McLouth falling off the earth like he did.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think he would be a good addition
He is nothing like the base threat of Bourn though, last year he stole 23 out of 33 attempts. His OBP is good, consistently 365—like really, practically 365 3 years in a row. Last year he hit 23 homers, which I think is reasonable to expect after his 12 HR 100 game season 16 homer first full season. He bats right, that’s nice. I am not excited about replacing Bourn with McCutchen in 2013, but I think he is a better replacement than we are going to find anywhere else. What I am excited about though, is a 2012 season of Bourn, McCutchen and Heyward in the outfield and McCutchen with a 365 obp batting right handed behind Bourn batting left handed and then a switchitting situational hitter than can get them in on sac flies, singles up the middle, and even well placed groundouts. We could generate a lot of small ball runs with these three at the top of the order, which is an important part of the game to be able to bring.
Prado becomes the man on the bench who backs up left, right, third, second and first in case of catastrophe. McCutchen backs up center. Ross backs up McCann, Hinske backs up first, and we get a backup SS. And carry Diaz.
if we didn't get a LF that could play center
we could not keep prado and diaz, because we would need hinske, ross, SS backup and a backup CF as well.
The Braves signed Sutton and Wilson to minor league deals. Both could be on our bench to start the season and for that reason I think that if we trade for someone to be our full-time LF they will trade Prado and save some money.
by drumzalicious on Nov 28, 2011 10:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sutton and Wilson...
…are backup SS candidates, not much else. Neither of them can hit. They take the Diory Hernandez/Brandon Hicks role, if anything. I am not sure where we will find a LF who is better than Prado and cheaper (hence saving money), but hey, from all the talk in here, obviously LFers who are better than Prado grow on trees.
the sarcasm is misplaced in my view. if Wren can find a quality upgrade for LF at a reasonable cost and accomplish a net improvement of the team, making us more competitive for a championship in 2012 , he does the deal. otherwise, it ain’t happening.
Well, cavebird has a point...
the “reasonable cost” bit appears to be a high hurdle at the moment.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
They also are capable of playing every INF position just like Prado and could probably handle LF in a pinch. Also I already understand that it won’t be easy finding a LF cheaper and better than Prado. Was just responding to the post above about the Braves acquiring a LF bat AND keeping Prado.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
While McCutcheon is not the base stealing threat that Bourn is...
…he is clearly a better hitter by a country mile. And he is younger and more likely to improve. I am not sure why you wouldn’t be excited to replace Bourn with McCutchen in 2013 or in any year.
just not as excited as having htem on the same team
I love having a guy that can steal over 40 bases at the top of the lineup. Bourn steals 40 bases and the 23 McCutchen steals. Of course he will also hit 20 homers, which Bourn could never sniff. So there is a tradeoff. Best case scenario though is McCutchen batting second behind bourn and in front of situational super star chipper jones
That's absolutely right...
..and his 5.7 WAR would have lead the Braves… by a margin of 2.0.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
what a chump!
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
I just would like to say...
we have the resources. The question is whether it would be an effective use of said resources. We have incredible pitching depth. Heck, we could trade Jurrjens for the best prospect package offered, and use some of those prospects in a deal for McCutchen. We can play him in LF field this year, and see what happens next offseason in possibly replacing Bourn.
Honestly? I gotta think that the Pirates would want JJ and Prado. Now Neil Walker isn’t going to leave 2nd… but Prado can (of course) do anything… maybe even take 3rd base for them while we relieve them of Alvarez (using him to back up 3rd in 2012).
Now beyond that, I dunno… but that might actually get a good discussion going…. and wow: an outfield of Cutch, Bourn, and Heyward???
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Yeah, I agree – it would take a little more, but at the level of this kind of trade, I truly have no idea what else we’d be talking about. But I would think that an offer of 2 major leaguers for 1 (and maybe the “failed” prospect Alvarez) should keep them from hanging up for a while. I suppose the way to go would be to add more prospects until they think that can justify it to their fans.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I think the Pirates would not want either.
Even with a half-season of success, this team is nowhere near win-now mode. They’d be getting rid of McCutcheon for guys with a lot of team control, not a couple players that are already in arbitration.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 29, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Good point – it’s not exactly their usual M.O. So they’d rather have guys like Minor or Delgado, I suppose.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Yeah, and they’re especially not going to want a Boras client. Three of our pitching prospects — say, Delgado, Vizcaino and Hoover, might get the deal done. But I’m not sure I to trade three of our pitching prospects. Two, okay. But three is too much of a risk; it’s betting that we’ll be able to sign JJ and Hanson for long term, which I don’t think we will be able to do.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Tooooo much IMO. Prospects hurt less.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 1:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think anything less wouldn’t be enough, Honestly, I think it would have to be Hanson+Prado to get him.
The upgrade from Prado to McClutchen is more then the downgrade from Hanson to Teheran or even Delgado.
i just think that they would want prospects
if they deal McCutchen that means they are rebuilding and want some players with some team control.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
I know I'll probably get panned for this
but how about:
JJ
Minor
Mychal Jones or other OF prospect
for McCutchen
Hiroyuki Nakajima was posted
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/seibu-lions-post-hiroyuki-nakajima.html#disqus_thread
He’s, from what I can find, a solid defensive shortstop and one of the top hitters in Japan and doesn’t project to require a huge posting fee. Could be an interesting option.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
RE: Gondee's latest post
talks about possibly dangling Venters. Discuss.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
Makes perfect sense
While people will take off my head on this, check out the success rate of dominant relievers, which Venters has been. There are very, very few Mariano Rivera’s of the world. Most likely, we’re looking toward a BIG downfall with Venters’ performance. If you can trade Venters at current value and get a solid prospect, for instance (the Nats pulled off Wilson Ramos for a much lesser reliever), you could end up well ahead in the end, and the depth of the system would allow someone like Vizcaino or Medlen to step into the 7th/8th inning split with EOF. I wouldn’t actively seek out a deal, but if you had a good offer for him, you absolutely listen.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Which brings up the age-old question
if we’re smart enough to predict such a downfall, wouldn’t the other GMs see that as well? Why should we expect a huge package?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Just going off of the deal he mentioned (Ramos). I’m not saying we’re going to pull off a blockbuster, but I’d imagine that JV would fetch us either a better-than-average SS (Aybar?), or a outfielder (either LF or CF).
Worst case scenario, we’d land an A prospect out of the trade, IMHO, but what do I know? I work in a cubical.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 29, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
what is it that differentiates Mariano?
His one pitch that no one can hit.
That isnt going anywhere for Johnny.
His velocity would have to drop and he would have to forget how to throw his sinker.
That makes no sense.
I get it, if we compare him to relievers broadly, but that seems unfair. He has an unhittable pitch no one has ever seen before. He also has a good slider.
Point is, he has to keep the ball down to be successful, he doesnt need pinpoint control or something like that.
Not exactly true
Everyone’s seen a sinker. Venters is throwing his extremely well, but much like everyone’s seen a cutter, everyone’s seen a sinker.
What has helped to make Mariano remarkable is that he’s never really been overused, and he has pinpoint control. He has thrown only one season over 80 IP since moving to a primary late-inning role (his 100+ IP season in 1996 was when he switched from long reliever to setup man midseason and was dominant enough to finish 3rd in the Cy Young), and the next season after that 80+ inning season, he missed the only significant time of his career. Mariano’s control, however, is elite. He has only his first season as a starter in 1994 as a season OVER 3.0 bb/9, and he has posted 8 seasons undr 2.0 bb/9, including each of the last 6 seasons, and his career rate is 2.0 bb/9. As hitters have seen more and more of the cutter, Mariano became a control freak, but he was going from an already-stellar 2.5 bb/9 to sub-2, which isn’t a monstrous change in approach. Venters has tossed 80+ innings twice in two years, and his sinker is great, but his control is not good. He has posted nearly identical bb/9 and k/9 rates his first two years, striking out batters at around 10.0 k/9, and walking them at a 4.3 bb/9 rate. It does not take long for hitters to catch up to an elite pitch enough to make it no longer dominant on its own. What Venters would need to do at that point is what Rivera did, which is become a remarkable pitcher, and there’s a LOT more distance between 4.3 and <2.0 bb/9 than 2.5 and 2.0. I worry long term on Venters, though I do think in 2012 he’s still very solid. I just don’t know when that other shoe drops, and if you can get a very solid offensive shortstop for him or a top 75 prospect for him, then you pull that trigger, especially with what is already on hand in the bullpen to step up in those roles.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Okay
…and Mariano’s cutter was much harder than others had ever thrown a cutter before him, but guys caught up enough to do something with it, and Rivera adapted his game.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Everybody throws a cutter, though
How many guys throw a sinker on a regular basis? I was under the impression that it wasn’t that many.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
i was under the impression
there has never been a pitch like this before
There's another in the majors right now
so that impression is incorrect.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
There was a big article (AJC, IIRC) during the 2011 season quoting numerous players stating they had never ever anywhere seen a pitch with the speed and late break of Jonny’s sinker.
Similar article was written
After Carmona’s 2007 season. He also has trouble with control, though he does have a significantly lower K rate. 95+mph sinker with drastic fall-off-the-table sink. Carmona’s been rumored to be a guy who’d be amazing in the bullpen, but Cleveland is getting what they can out of him as a starter, and I think we just made that move with Jonny before he hit the majors.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 30, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Now
Everyone throws a cutter now
My video game from the mid-90s shows a fastball, changeup, curveball, sinker, slider, and knuckleball. No cut fastball, no split fastball, no circle change, etc. The sinker has been in the game for years, and it has been thrown hard before. Kevin Brown is known for having an untouchable hard sinker. Mike Hampton when he was on had a great hard sinker. Greg Maddux had a great sinker. Brandon Webb also threw a great sinker before things went wrong with his health.
The guy who has a comparable sinker in speed (95+), cut, and effectiveness is Fausto Carmona. His sinker is hard and incredibly biting. He, however, has similar issues that caused Venters to be moved to the pen, including control issues.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
Somebody correct me if I’m wrong, but: From what I understand, the reason the cutter is so popular now is because it has similar action to the split-finger fastball, but it’s significantly easier on the arm.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Negative
A splitfinger breaks down, the cutter breaks to the side. But they both break late-ish, if that’s what you’re talking about.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
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I won't take your head off, because
I’m of the same opinion. I wouldn’t exactly advertise that he’s available, but I’d listen to offers. It would have to be a pretty solid return for the kid, though, huge workload or not.
I tossed this out in the other post. What about a package that involves Aybar? I don’t think Venters for Aybar, straight up, is worth it, but another prospect along with Aybar would suit me just fine.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 29, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Venters and Jurrjens for Aybar and Bourjos. Similar service time, Angels win by a year, Similar money, Braves win by a little. Angels get the pitching they need, Braves get a 1 yr SS and an OF capable of playing CF if Bourn goes away.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Angels don't really NEED starting pitching, though
This trade rumor has been around plenty, but it makes little sense. Prado actually makes more sense for Anaheim as they could use the 3B help. I would kill for a top 3 of Weaver, Haren, and Santana in Atlanta. Pitching is not the Angels biggest worry, which is why they won’t view Jurrjens as highly. He’d easily be their 4. No one’s giving up an elite defensive CFer and a top half of the league SS for a deal centered around a reliever and a 4 starter. I could definitely see them interested if it was for Prado, however.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
I would rather
trade O’Flaherty than Venters, we have Venters under control pretty cheap for the next few years.
I am putting my fingers in my ears and shouting
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!
In seriousness, there are certain things I trade and others I don’t. We have fantastic pitching depth, but for whatever the reason we seem to always have 2-3 relievers that are good throughout the year and anybody that could have been good with those guys gets injured, leaving us with cruddy “veterans” and what not. I would much rather trade one of our starting pitching prospects then any part of O’Ventbrel at this stage. Heck, dangle Vizzy, Delgado, or Minor since they are flexible and proven they can hang with the big boys. We have sooooo much depth for starting pitching that it doesn’t make sense to not dangle at least one of them if they are going to be blocked for a while.
we better clearly win that deal. I believe we need to add a top reliever via trade or free agency because the team has already stated they are looking at Medlen as a starter for next season. Meaning all we have right now is Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flaherty, and Martinez.
by drumzalicious on Nov 29, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
wow i am ready for spring training already
Minor, Medlen, Teheran, Delgado all competing for spots, and Beachy feeling like he has to keep pace. Vizcaino may also be treated like a starter in spring training…
That is going to be mad action
dude has earned it
he was a winner when he pitched for us, a real competitor.
what if at some point in the season we saw
Hanson and Medlen
Beachy and Minor
Long Term Rotation
Hanson
Medlen
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
There will be plenty of steals for good free agent relievers, as there are most years. Wait for the big boys to sign and go dumpster diving. Though he didn’t work out, Linebrink was a decent risk last year. Sherrill worked out just fine.
Linebrink was fine for what he was
He was a 6th inning guy to pitch the whole inning, not so much a specialist type to bring in with bases loaded. He was “unlucky” in BABIP last season as well. For what we invested in Linebrink, he wasn’t bad. Proctor, on the other hand….
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 30, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Would anybody do
a Prado for Franklin Gutierrez and Chone FIggins( Seattle covering most if not all of Figgins’ salary) ? Then let Pastornicky play SS. That OF defense would be unbelievable and if Gutierrez bounces back and regains some strength, the offense won’t be too shabby either.
Doesn't really fit...
Gutierrez has never put up number anywhere near Prado’s, which exacerbates the LF issue even if he does bounce back, and Figgins has negative trade value at this point. I don’t see the reason in trading one small “if” for two big “ifs.”
The best-case scenario of the trade involves Figgins returning to form…at 34 and two years removed from an above-average season, I don’t care how much salary the Mariners take on, it’s an unlikely prospect. The same, minus the age, is true of Gutierrez, who will make significantly more than Prado over the next two seasons.
Too much risk, too little reward…unless you really think either will return to 6 WAR form, which is a blindingly-bad longshot.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Hmm for some reason I’ve never been as high on FG as some others. He has great defense but his offense has left much to be desired IMO.
by drumzalicious on Nov 30, 2011 1:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
and with Bourn, there's no need for a CF
his bat doesn’t really play in LF.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Next year he might would be an option. Even then I’d rather have Bourn if his price is reasonable.
Although FG and Bourn in the OF would be quite amazing defensively.
by drumzalicious on Nov 30, 2011 4:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Soo
Braves are apparently so high on Simmons they think he could be ready by the ASB. So why not trade Pastornicky?
Well... let me think out loud for a sec. on that.
1. If you’re thinking “trade TP now”, then I’m not sure we can until his worth as a major leaguer is established. Besides, we’ll still have to find a SS someplace, and TP would certainly be the obvious option… unless somebody says this Spring: “screw it – Simmons is ready now.”
2. Assuming TP starts the season, if you’re thinking “trade TP in July”, then that could make sense, but you’ve gotta KNOW that Simmons is “the guy” — ‘cause TP would still be a great backup guy for at least 1/2 the infield spots.
3. Another scenario is "we’ve got Drew Sutton as a stopgap/insurance policy". In this case, we may never need TP, then. But then it’s a matter of determining the time/point of highest value for TP. He’s got lots of options, so we wouldn’t have to move him any time soon, either.
Yeah, I think it’s an interesting question. For sure, it’s pretty surprising that the Braves suddenly have as many shortstop candidates as they do… couple of years ago, the farm was pretty dry at that spot.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
i think what they want to do
is bring up pastornicky this year and simmons next year
and let them play SS and third
But if Pastornicky isnt good at the allstar break, and there isnt a star on the market, they want to believe they could call up Simmons then.
I dont’t think there is much chance they go with him out of ST.
Pastornicky could hopefully provide average, OBP and some speed at third or eventually on the bench. But he needs a full season of major league pitching first as a starter probably.
Why does everyone keep referring to TP as a bench/utility guy? I see him as a Prado with less speed.
by drumzalicious on Nov 30, 2011 1:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And everybody keeps referring to Prado as a bench/utility guy
So, that makes sense.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Rotation of the future
2012 spring
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Beachy
Minor
BP
Kimbrel
Venters
Oflahrity
Medlen
varvaro
gilmarten
Martinez
2012 summer – if no injuries to rotation
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy/Medlen
Minor/Medlen
Teheran/Medlen
just sayin
we should cut our weakest pitcher and add our strongest of the several options we will have
Gilmartin in the pen?
I don’t think so. Vizcaino, Gearrin or Hoover maybe, but not Gilmartin.
Also, I think Delgado is more likely to be starting than Medlen.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
anyone else think Uggla needs to be in LF?
I’m just thinking in my head “what if Simmons is really ready at the ASB”
I doubt they would call him up in the middle of a pennant chase so that brings us to 2013. I have great confidence in Pastornicky and believe he will be another Martin Prado for us. A guy with high contact, good OBP, Gap Line Drive Power, just with more speed. Its well documented that he defensively plays better at 2B than SS because of his arm
Just thinking Uggla to LF. TP at 2B. Simmons at SS and Prado at 3B. Our infield defense would improve dramatically. Uggla’s bat would be the traditional power hitting LF. All we’d need to do is re-sign Bourn
Bourn CF
Pastornicky 2B
Heyward RF
Uggla LF
McCann C
Prado 3B
Freeman 1B
Simmons SS
by drumzalicious on Nov 30, 2011 1:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't recall
were there any position-related considerations in Uggla’s contract?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If it is then that would be Wren’s dumbest move ever.
by drumzalicious on Nov 30, 2011 3:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Depends on what the considerations are.
If we saved $$ by promising 2B to Uggla for 2012, I’m ok with that.
But, I can’t find anything about it online, so I don’t know that it matters.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Would Wren consider trading Uggla next year if Pastornicky can handle 2B and Simmons SS? We’d be loaded with weak hitting infielders, but could afford a good LF.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
what would be the point of getting rid of one our best hitters exactly?
by McCann's the Man on Dec 1, 2011 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
we're a budget team
gotta save that money for our soon to be expensive pitchers.
by drumzalicious on Dec 1, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
With the Red Sox pitching woes
I wonder if they’d consider listening to offers on Ellsbury. I’m sure it would be doubtful coming off of the season he just had, but would the Sox listen for a package of Jurrjens, Prado, and Minor, plus a B pitching prospect for him and Lowrie?
by Kitch on Nov 30, 2011 10:53 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Like I said
I know it would be doubtful that the Red Sox would move him. But they’d be getting 2 pitchers who are or could be 2s or 3s, a solid hitter, and a good prospect. I don’t think it is terriblly unfair. What do you think the package would have to look like if they were to consider moving him?
Jurrjens, Prado, Minor, Delgado, Vizcaino, Bethancourt, and Simmons for Ellsbury and Lowrie MIGHT get you to the table, but not for certain.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Dec 1, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I honestly don't think that is
For what Boston would require to get to the table…
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Dec 2, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury 2011 WAR – 9.4
Jurrjens career WAR – 10.3
Prado career WAR – 10.0
When was the last time a playoff caliber team with a huge payroll traded a star player? If they want pitching, they can buy it on the free agent market or trade prospects. They don’t have any reason to trade the guy who was their best player last year.
Good point
Wild and not very realistic analysis on my part.
by Kitch on Dec 1, 2011 7:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Jose Bautista
The Jays know they aren’t going to win the East. Maybe they would want to sell him high before they have nothing to show for it.
Prado, JJ and a prospect for our 2012 LF and 3B beyond?
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Firstly, Prado/JJ/prospect would not be selling high on Bautista
Secondly, no feckin chance the Jays are moving him so i’d give up on him.
Unless that prospect is Delgado or Teheran or Vizcaino
that’s not “selling high”, and since Prado and JJ can be free agents after two seasons, that again leaves them in the “nothing to show for it” category now doesn’t it?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
i even doubt that a Teheran, Prado and JJ deal gets it done
perhaps a Teheran, Hanson, Prado and Simmons. Perhaps. Even then it looks doubtful.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 3, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
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