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2011 Braves, Against The Odds

By on Nov 15 2011, 9:46p 3

Here is a look at how the Braves 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Braves games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5462 which translates to an expected win total of 88.48 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Braves game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5144 or 83.33 wins.  The Braves actually went 89-73 on the season.  The Braves along with the Orioles were two of the teams that the simulator didn't have a good handle on this year.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Braves were the largest favorite to win.

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercATL Win PercSim ATL Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 05-16-2011 Brett Myers Tommy Hanson HOU ATL ATL 69.231 69.231 67.236 ATL 2 3 5
2 09-12-11 Chris Volstad Brandon Beachy FLA ATL ATL 67.742 67.742 68.513 FLA 5 4 9
3 09-01-11 Chien-Ming Wang Tim Hudson WAS ATL ATL 67.213 67.213 67.237 ATL 2 5 7
4 05-10-11 Jason Marquis Tim Hudson WAS ATL ATL 66.273 66.273 59.632 WAS 7 6 13
5 05-11-11 John Lannan Tommy Hanson WAS ATL ATL 66.102 66.102 65.132 WAS 7 3 10
6 06-01-11 Clayton Richard Tommy Hanson SD ATL ATL 64.974 64.974 64.224 ATL 3 4 7
7 07-06-11 Aaron Cook Jair Jurrjens COL ATL ATL 64.851 64.851 58.685 ATL 1 9 10
8 07-25-2011 James McDonald Tim Hudson PIT ATL ATL 64.851 64.851 64.88 PIT 3 1 4
9 05-04-11 Marco Estrada Tommy Hanson MIL ATL ATL 64.286 64.286 64.904 ATL 3 8 11
10 09-18-2011 Dillon Gee Brandon Beachy NYN ATL ATL 64.093 64.093 65.11 NYN 7 5 12
11 07-26-2011 Jeff Karstens Tommy Hanson PIT ATL ATL 63.964 63.964 69.374 ATL 3 4 7
12 04-16-2011 D.J. Carrasco Derek Lowe NYN ATL ATL 63.899 63.899 59.457 ATL 2 4 6
13 08-30-2011 Livan Hernandez Jair Jurrjens WAS ATL ATL 63.834 63.834 58.959 WAS 9 2 11
14 05-12-11 Jordan Zimmerman Derek Lowe WAS ATL ATL 63.636 63.636 60.938 ATL 5 6 11
15 04-17-2011 Dillon Gee Tommy Hanson NYN ATL ATL 63.57 63.57 59.996 NYN 3 2 5
16 07-16-2011 John Lannan Tommy Hanson WAS ATL ATL 63.57 63.57 62.038 WAS 5 2 7
17 08-20-2011 Wade Miley Brandon Beachy ARI ATL ATL 63.57 63.57 60.981 ATL 1 8 9
18 09-13-2011 Brad Hand Mike Minor FLA ATL ATL 63.437 63.437 70.307 ATL 1 7 8
19 07-15-2011 Livan Hernandez Tim Hudson WAS ATL ATL 62.894 62.894 57.84 ATL 1 11 12
20 07-07-11 Juan Nicasio Tim Hudson COL ATL ATL 62.756 62.756 58.792 ATL 3 6 9
21 05-30-2011 Aaron Harang Tim Hudson SD ATL ATL 62.687 62.687 58.112 SD 3 2 5
22 07-02-11 Jake Arrieta Tim Hudson BAL ATL ATL 62.617 62.617 56.552 ATL 4 5 9
23 08-13-2011 Randy Wells Derek Lowe CHN ATL ATL 62.617 62.617 63.298 CHN 8 4 12
24 07-27-2011 Paul Maholm Jair Jurrjens PIT ATL ATL 62.547 62.547 60.474 ATL 1 2 3
25 04-12-11 Chris Volstad Tommy Hanson FLA ATL ATL 62.335 62.335 60.693 ATL 0 5 5
26 04-16-2011 Mike Pelfrey Jair Jurrjens NYN ATL ATL 62.264 62.264 52.51 ATL 0 4 4
27 07-17-2011 Tom Gorzelanny Jair Jurrjens WAS ATL ATL 62.264 62.264 62.977 ATL 8 9 17
28 07-01-11 Jeremy Guthrie Jair Jurrjens BAL ATL ATL 62.049 62.049 53.906 ATL 0 4 4
29 08-21-2011 Josh Collmenter Tim Hudson ARI ATL ATL 61.832 61.832 58.393 ATL 0 1 1
30 06-10-11 Tim Hudson Aneury Rodriguez ATL HOU ATL 61.686 61.686 54.544 ATL 11 4 15
31 09-17-2011 R.A. Dickey Tim Hudson NYN ATL ATL 61.538 61.538 58.86 ATL 0 1 1
32 08-31-2011 John Lannan Derek Lowe WAS ATL ATL 61.165 61.165 62.376 ATL 1 3 4
33 05-17-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Derek Lowe HOU ATL ATL 60.938 60.938 58.133 ATL 1 3 4
34 09-02-11 Chad Billingsley Brandon Beachy LAN ATL ATL 60.861 60.861 64.489 LAN 8 6 14
35 07-28-2011 Kevin Correia Derek Lowe PIT ATL ATL 60.861 60.861 64.007 PIT 5 2 7
36 07-29-2011 Clay Hensley Brandon Beachy FLA ATL ATL 60.861 60.861 62.928 ATL 0 5 5
37 05-27-2011 Mike Leake Tommy Hanson CIN ATL ATL 60.707 60.707 56.856 CIN 5 1 6
38 05-14-2011 Joe Blanton Jair Jurrjens PHI ATL ATL 60.239 60.239 52.169 ATL 3 5 8
39 07-31-2011 Ricky Nolasco Tommy Hanson FLA ATL ATL 60.239 60.239 58.744 FLA 3 1 4
40 08-15-2011 Madison Bumgarner Tim Hudson SF ATL ATL 60.239 60.239 50.858 ATL 4 5 9
41 09-16-2011 Chris Capuano Derek Lowe NYN ATL ATL 60.08 60.08 57.929 NYN 12 2 14
42 09-28-2011 Joe Blanton Tim Hudson PHI ATL ATL 60.08 60.08 60.159 PHI 4 3 7
43 06-12-11 Tommy Hanson Brett Myers ATL HOU ATL 60 60 53.221 ATL 4 1 5
44 07-03-11 Zach Britton Brandon Beachy BAL ATL ATL 59.596 59.596 49.397 BAL 5 4 9
45 08-03-11 Brandon Beachy Chien-Ming Wang ATL WAS ATL 59.596 59.596 53.411 ATL 6 4 10
46 08-14-2011 Matt Garza Brandon Beachy CHN ATL ATL 59.432 59.432 57.536 CHN 6 5 11
47 09-03-11 Nathan Eovaldi Mike Minor LAN ATL ATL 59.184 59.184 67.796 LAN 2 1 3
48 09-24-2011 Brandon Beachy Chien-Ming Wang ATL WAS ATL 58.932 58.932 58.8 WAS 1 4 5
49 05-28-2011 Bronson Arroyo Derek Lowe CIN ATL ATL 58.763 58.763 54.055 ATL 6 7 13
50 06-15-2011 Dillon Gee Tim Hudson NYN ATL ATL 58.763 58.763 51.512 NYN 4 0 4
51 06-14-2011 John Niese Jair Jurrjens NYN ATL ATL 58.42 58.42 51.23 NYN 4 3 7
52 07-30-2011 Anibal Sanchez Tim Hudson FLA ATL ATL 58.42 58.42 53.645 ATL 1 5 6
53 09-14-2011 Ricky Nolasco Randall Delgado FLA ATL ATL 58.246 58.246 53.336 ATL 1 4 5
54 08-23-2011 Mike Minor Casey Coleman ATL CHN ATL 57.983 57.983 57.578 ATL 5 4 9
55 08-26-2011 Tim Hudson Chris Capuano ATL NYN ATL 57.895 57.895 52.914 NYN 0 6 6
56 08-01-11 Jair Jurrjens Livan Hernandez ATL WAS ATL 57.806 57.806 48.812 WAS 3 5 8
57 04-30-2011 Jake Westbrook Brandon Beachy STL ATL ATL 57.806 57.806 49.883 STL 3 2 5
58 06-07-11 Tommy Hanson Brad Hand ATL FLA ATL 57.717 57.717 54.214 ATL 1 0 1
59 06-22-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Brandon Beachy TOR ATL ATL 57.537 57.537 51.664 ATL 1 5 6
60 03-31-2011 Derek Lowe Livan Hernandez ATL WAS ATL 57.447 57.447 41.1 ATL 2 0 2
61 08-12-11 Carlos Zambrano Mike Minor CHN ATL ATL 57.356 57.356 59.856 ATL 4 10 14
62 05-29-2011 Johnny Cueto Jair Jurrjens CIN ATL ATL 57.356 57.356 53.74 ATL 1 2 3
63 04-02-11 Tommy Hanson John Lannan ATL WAS ATL 57.265 57.265 47.931 WAS 3 6 9
64 05-02-11 Yovanni Gallardo Jair Jurrjens MIL ATL ATL 57.173 57.173 55.991 ATL 2 6 8
65 08-17-2011 Matt Cain Jair Jurrjens SF ATL ATL 56.989 56.989 51.988 SF 7 5 12
66 05-04-11 Zach Greinke Tim Hudson MIL ATL ATL 56.616 56.616 58.982 ATL 0 8 8
67 07-04-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Tommy Hanson COL ATL ATL 56.522 56.522 51.441 ATL 1 4 5
68 04-14-2011 Ricky Nolasco Brandon Beachy FLA ATL ATL 56.522 56.522 54.63 FLA 6 5 11
69 07-05-11 Jhoulys Chacin Derek Lowe COL ATL ATL 56.427 56.427 51.061 ATL 3 5 8
70 05-22-2011 Derek Lowe Tyler Chatwood ATL LAA ATL 56.236 56.236 54.765 LAA 1 4 5
71 06-09-11 Jair Jurrjens Chris Volstad ATL FLA ATL 56.044 56.044 51.135 ATL 3 2 5
72 08-16-2011 Jonathan Sanchez Randall Delgado SF ATL ATL 55.85 55.85 55.936 ATL 1 2 3
73 08-24-2011 Derek Lowe Randy Wells ATL CHN ATL 55.85 55.85 55.849 CHN 2 3 5
74 04-20-2011 Derek Lowe Jon Garland ATL LAN ATL 55.752 55.752 56.567 LAN 1 6 7
75 04-18-2011 Tim Hudson Ted Lilly ATL LAN ATL 55.654 55.654 50.496 LAN 2 4 6
76 05-05-11 Shaun Marcum Brandon Beachy MIL ATL ATL 55.556 55.556 53.455 ATL 2 1 3
77 04-13-2011 Josh Johnson Tim Hudson FLA ATL ATL 55.457 55.457 51.487 FLA 5 1 6
78 06-05-11 Tim Hudson R.A. Dickey ATL NYN ATL 55.257 55.257 44.962 NYN 4 6 10
79 04-03-11 Tim Hudson Jordan Zimmerman ATL WAS ATL 54.955 54.955 45.83 ATL 11 2 13
80 09-08-11 Mike Minor Chris Schwinden ATL NYN ATL 54.955 54.955 53.99 ATL 6 5 11
81 06-13-2011 Derek Lowe Wandy Rodriguez ATL HOU ATL 54.853 54.853 45.347 HOU 3 8 11
82 04-25-2011 Derek Lowe Dustin Moseley ATL SD ATL 54.649 54.649 50.822 SD 3 5 8
83 05-24-2011 Jair Jurrjens Charlie Morton ATL PIT ATL 54.649 54.649 52.007 ATL 2 0 2
84 08-09-11 Brandon Beachy Clay Hensley ATL FLA ATL 54.442 54.442 51.435 ATL 4 3 7
85 06-25-2011 Jair Jurrjens Dustin Moseley ATL SD ATL 54.442 54.442 49.953 ATL 10 1 11
86 06-04-11 Jair Jurrjens Dillon Gee ATL NYN ATL 54.233 54.233 47.657 NYN 0 5 5
87 06-20-2011 Ricky Romero Tim Hudson TOR ATL ATL 54.233 54.233 52.833 ATL 0 2 2
88 06-21-2011 Zach Stewart Mike Minor TOR ATL ATL 54.023 54.023 60.107 ATL 1 5 6
89 08-05-11 Tim Hudson R.A. Dickey ATL NYN ATL 53.811 53.811 47.584 ATL 4 1 5
90 08-06-11 Tommy Hanson John Niese ATL NYN ATL 53.811 53.811 41.641 NYN 7 11 18
91 08-10-11 Tim Hudson Anibal Sanchez ATL FLA ATL 53.811 53.811 44.953 ATL 6 2 8
92 07-22-2011 Jair Jurrjens Bronson Arroyo ATL CIN ATL 53.811 53.811 51.221 ATL 6 4 10
93 08-22-2011 Jair Jurrjens Ryan Dempster ATL CHN ATL 53.811 53.811 44.377 ATL 3 0 3
94 09-25-2011 Mike Minor Ross Detwiler ATL WAS ATL 53.811 53.811 54.706 WAS 0 3 3
95 07-24-2011 Brandon Beachy Dontrelle Willis ATL CIN ATL 53.596 53.596 48.401 CIN 3 4 7
96 05-21-2011 Tommy Hanson Joel Pineiro ATL LAA ATL 53.488 53.488 53.721 ATL 5 4 9
97 09-11-11 Tim Hudson Jake Westbrook ATL STL ATL 53.38 53.38 41.106 STL 3 6 9
98 05-31-2011 Mat Latos Mike Minor SD ATL ATL 53.38 53.38 51.993 SD 5 4 9
99 08-25-2011 Brandon Beachy Matt Garza ATL CHN ATL 53.162 53.162 47.544 ATL 8 3 11
100 06-16-2011 R.A. Dickey Mike Minor NYN ATL ATL 52.941 52.941 54.725 ATL 8 9 17
101 04-10-11 Cole Hamels Derek Lowe PHI ATL ATL 52.719 52.719 49.159 PHI 3 0 3
102 09-19-2011 Mike Minor Ricky Nolasco ATL FLA ATL 52.719 52.719 50.15 FLA 5 6 11
103 08-02-11 Derek Lowe John Lannan ATL WAS ATL 52.494 52.494 50.589 WAS 3 9 12
104 05-18-2011 Julio Teheran Joe Saunders ATL ARI ATL 52.267 52.267 51.58 ARI 4 5 9
105 05-20-2011 Tim Hudson Ervin Santana ATL LAA ATL 52.267 52.267 50.926 LAA 0 9 9
106 08-19-2011 Daniel Hudson Derek Lowe ARI ATL ATL 52.267 52.267 54.335 ATL 2 4 6
107 04-07-11 Tommy Hanson Shaun Marcum ATL MIL ATL 52.153 52.153 54.758 MIL 2 4 6
108 08-08-11 Derek Lowe Brad Hand ATL FLA ATL 52.038 52.038 52.112 ATL 8 5 13
109 06-11-11 Mike Minor Jordan Lyles ATL HOU ATL 51.923 51.923 47.203 ATL 6 3 9
110 04-26-2011 Jair Jurrjens Aaron Harang ATL SD ATL 51.807 51.807 40.407 ATL 8 2 10
111 04-06-11 Mike Minor Marco Estrada ATL MIL ATL 51.456 51.456 51.456 MIL 4 5 9
112 06-18-2011 Matt Harrison Derek Lowe TEX ATL ATL 51.456 51.456 51.447 TEX 5 4 9
113 09-20-2011 Randall Delgado Anibal Sanchez ATL FLA ATL 51.456 51.456 39.4 ATL 4 0 4
114 09-23-2011 Tim Hudson Stephen Strasburg ATL WAS ATL 51.456 51.456 50.23 ATL 7 4 11
115 04-09-11 Roy Oswalt Brandon Beachy PHI ATL ATL 51.338 51.338 47.369 PHI 10 2 12
116 04-29-2011 Chris Carpenter Tim Hudson STL ATL ATL 51.338 51.338 48.376 STL 5 3 8
117 05-01-11 Jaime Garcia Derek Lowe STL ATL ATL 51.22 51.22 42.952 ATL 5 6 11
118 05-19-2011 Jair Jurrjens Josh Collmenter ATL ARI ATL 51.1 51.1 53.347 ARI 1 2 3
119 04-04-11 Brandon Beachy Chris Narveson ATL MIL ATL 50.98 50.98 46.792 ATL 2 1 3
120 04-27-2011 Tommy Hanson Mat Latos ATL SD ATL 50.739 50.739 48.789 ATL 7 0 7
121 04-22-2011 Tommy Hanson Madison Bumgarner ATL SF ATL 50.617 50.617 46.268 ATL 4 1 5
122 05-13-2011 Cole Hamels Brandon Beachy PHI ATL ATL 50.617 50.617 45.071 PHI 5 4 9
123 05-25-2011 Mike Minor James McDonald ATL PIT ATL 50.617 50.617 48.382 ATL 4 2 6
124 06-03-11 Derek Lowe John Niese ATL NYN NYN 50.249 49.751 42.3 ATL 6 3 9
125 06-19-2011 Alexi Ogando Jair Jurrjens TEX ATL TEX 50.249 49.751 50.143 ATL 2 4 6
126 04-08-11 Cliff Lee Tim Hudson PHI ATL PHI 50.495 49.505 44.261 ATL 3 6 9
127 06-26-2011 Tim Hudson Cory Luebke ATL SD SD 50.617 49.383 49.644 SD 1 4 5
128 07-21-2011 Tommy Hanson Jhoulys Chacin ATL COL COL 50.617 49.383 43.305 ATL 9 6 15
129 09-27-2011 Roy Oswalt Derek Lowe PHI ATL PHI 50.617 49.383 51.41 PHI 7 1 8
130 06-24-2011 Derek Lowe Tim Stauffer ATL SD SD 50.739 49.261 39.902 SD 11 2 13
131 07-20-2011 Tim Hudson Juan Nicasio ATL COL COL 50.739 49.261 41.78 COL 2 3 5
132 09-21-2011 Derek Lowe Javier Vazquez ATL FLA FLA 50.98 49.02 49.76 FLA 0 4 4
133 05-07-11 Julio Teheren Kyle Kendrick ATL PHI PHI 51.22 48.78 44.009 PHI 0 3 3
134 09-08-11 Julio Teheran Dillon Gee ATL NYN NYN 51.456 48.544 46.66 ATL 5 1 6
135 06-17-2011 Colby Lewis Tommy Hanson TEX ATL TEX 51.691 48.309 59.363 TEX 6 2 8
136 06-28-2011 Tommy Hanson Michael Pineda ATL SEA SEA 51.807 48.193 43.086 ATL 5 4 9
137 04-19-2011 Brandon Beachy Hiroki Kuroda ATL LAN LAN 52.038 47.962 44.379 ATL 10 1 11
138 04-05-11 Derek Lowe Yovanni Gallardo ATL MIL MIL 52.153 47.847 46.839 MIL 0 1 1
139 06-27-2011 Brandon Beachy Erik Bedard ATL SEA SEA 52.267 47.733 38.132 ATL 3 1 4
140 05-15-2011 Roy Halladay Tim Hudson PHI ATL PHI 52.381 47.619 45.189 ATL 2 3 5
141 06-08-11 Derek Lowe Ricky Nolasco ATL FLA FLA 52.941 47.059 43.091 ATL 3 2 5
142 08-07-11 Mike Minor Dillon Gee ATL NYN NYN 53.271 46.729 44.009 ATL 6 5 11
143 09-06-11 Tim Hudson Vance Worley ATL PHI PHI 53.596 46.404 39.516 PHI 3 6 9
144 07-18-2011 Derek Lowe Jason Hammel ATL COL COL 54.233 45.767 42.151 ATL 7 4 11
145 07-23-2011 Derek Lowe Homer Bailey ATL CIN CIN 54.233 45.767 47.924 CIN 2 11 13
146 09-09-11 Randall Delgado Edwin Jackson ATL STL STL 55.056 44.944 32.034 STL 3 4 7
147 04-24-2011 Brandon Beachy Jonathan Sanchez ATL SF SF 55.457 44.543 34.425 ATL 9 6 15
148 04-21-2011 Jair Jurrjens Clayton Kershaw ATL LAN LAN 55.85 44.15 41.133 LAN 3 5 8
149 08-18-2011 Tim Lincecum Mike Minor SF ATL SF 55.85 44.15 54.377 ATL 0 1 1
150 09-04-11 Clayton Kershaw Randall Delgado LAN ATL LAN 56.427 43.573 47.068 ATL 3 4 7
151 07-19-2011 Brandon Beachy Ubaldo Jimenez ATL COL COL 56.989 43.011 35.685 COL 3 12 15
152 09-07-11 Brandon Beachy Roy Oswalt ATL PHI PHI 57.173 42.827 42.988 PHI 2 3 5
153 05-08-11 Jair Jurrjens Cole Hamels ATL PHI PHI 57.806 42.194 35.76 ATL 5 2 7
154 06-29-2011 Derek Lowe Felx Hernandez ATL SEA SEA 58.763 41.237 38.299 ATL 5 3 8
155 09-10-11 Derek Lowe Jaime Garcia ATL STL STL 59.432 40.568 33.479 STL 3 4 7
156 04-23-2011 Tim Hudson Tim Lincecum ATL SF SF 59.596 40.404 35.046 ATL 5 2 7
157 07-09-11 Tommy Hanson Cliff Lee ATL PHI PHI 59.759 40.241 41.177 ATL 4 1 5
158 05-06-11 Derek Lowe Cliff Lee ATL PHI PHI 60.239 39.761 37.054 ATL 5 0 5
159 09-26-2011 Cliff Lee Randall Delgado PHI ATL PHI 62.121 37.879 37.839 PHI 4 2 6
160 07-10-11 Derek Lowe Cole Hamels ATL PHI PHI 62.547 37.453 38.482 PHI 1 14 15
161 07-08-11 Brandon Beachy Roy Halladay ATL PHI PHI 62.756 37.244 30.626 PHI 2 3 5
162 09-05-11 Derek Lowe Cliff Lee ATL PHI PHI 65.753 34.247 33.907 PHI 0 9 9

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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