It Could Be A Busy Day For The Braves
Today is likely to be an eventful day for the Atlanta Braves. The Baseball Writers Association of America announces the real Rookie of the Year award at 2pm this afternoon, and seeing as how our own Craig Kimbrel has won every other previous version of that award this off-season, it is likely that he will be named the National League's top rookie. Huzzah!
The General Managers and Owners meetings also start today in Milwaukee. Trader Wren will surely be approached by many GMs seeing what it will take to pry Jair Jurrjens and/or Martin Prado (and/or anyone else on the team) away from Atlanta. The Braves needs have been pretty clearly stated: a shortstop and a corner outfield bat.
It's not clear yet if the Braves want to trade away Jurrjens and Prado to clear salary for a free agent signing, or simply because they feel the value of those two players will help them fill other needs. While a trade in not a certainty, it does seem like something is poised to happen, as Atlanta has been moving quickly this off-season.
Colorado beat writer Troy Renck has been all over the Prado-to-the-Rockies rumors, and brings us this latest update on the eve of the meetings:
Going after the Braves' Martin Prado in a trade makes complete sense. With apologies to Carroll, a steady player and leader, Prado brings high character and more power.
The Braves like Seth Smith, but want another piece, preferably a center fielder. Talks could heat up quickly at this week's general managers meetings in Milwaukee if the Rockies include Tim Wheeler or Charlie Blackmon.
Renck spends most of the article saying how the Rockies weren't as aggressive as they should have been last year with free agents, but seem to be taking a more aggressive posture this year in going after their needs. After they lost out on Jamey Carroll, they may decide to get more aggressive in their pursuit of Prado.
I still see some several other teams entering the Prado sweepstakes before a trade is actually made (if one is made). I personally really like Marteeen, and I hope the Braves don't trade him, but it certainly seems like they intend to deal him if an offer is to their liking.
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Winter meetings don't start until tomorrow.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Some of them might've been there last Friday
but they probably won’t start officially wheeling and dealing until tomorrow.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Winter meetings don't start til December
GM/Owner meetings start tomorrow.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Nov 14, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
Ah, yeah
it not being winter yet and all. /fail
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Can someone tell me what "Huzzah!" means?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Nov 14, 2011 9:01 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Definition of HUZZAH
: an expression or shout of acclaim —often used interjectionally to express joy or approbation
I have a theory...
With Prado we’re looking to land a CF of the future. With JJ we’re trying to land a LF and upgrade SS.
But what about 3B? We’ve got a huge hole to fill once Chipper retires and until the Salcedo/Drury train arrives in Atlanta beyond 2015. These trades have to net us some depth at 3B or we’re going to have to pony up some serious cash to fill that 3B hole. That’s why unless the deal is knock-your-socks-off good…I can’t see us trading Martin.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Nov 14, 2011 9:40 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I think they'll cross the 3B bridge later
they need to focus on next year first and they might not have Prado then anyway.
We need a capable back up 3B for now.
We know Chipper will miss 30 games or more. That’s what makes Prado so valuable to us. I am not against trading anyone for enough in return, but I haven’t heard any rumors that are enough when it comes to Prado. A platoon OF (who is left handed) and a questionable CF prospect (as the current rumor has it) does seem to be anywhere near enough to me.
Completely agree
Trading Prado opens up 2 roster spots, LF, backup 3B. I’m hoping Conrad is not the plan for 30-40-even 50 games at 3B.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Agreed 100%
replace Smith with Dexter Fowler and add one of those OF prospects, and I might reconsider.
Without Prado, we’re in a lurch when Chipper inevitably misses his month+.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
They wont even do a Prado for Fowler
by PhuckthePhillies on Nov 14, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Our we overvaluing Prado?
While you’re comment focuses primarily on Prado’s value to us, not what his value is on the trading block, is Martin worth more than Smith/Wheeler or Smith/Blackmon to teams other than Atlanta? Serious question.
Given Prado’s versatility, grit, and heart, we may be overvaluing him, since not all teams need a guaranteed, fill-in at 3B next season and grit and heart are hard to quantify. Sure, I can look at his numbers, but they aren’t spectacular. (Don’t get me wrong, they’re quite good, just not amazing.)
Once again, this may be your point: Prado’s most valuable to us, and, thus, anything we receive will not be good enough.
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
Goodness...*are, not "our"...
Awful. Sorry.
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
MLBTR reports that multiple teams have inquired about him. Makes sense, he was an All Star 2B that plays acceptable LF and 3B, he could fit into most MLB teams needs. I wouldn’t trade him for Smith and a prospect, I hope Wren makes a better deal than that. He should have the opportunity, sounds like Prado might turn into a bidding war among other teams.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I guess to ask my question a different way...
What would be a fair trade, in your opinion (your=everyone on this blog), for Prado?
I see some indicate that Smith and Fowler would be more palatable, but neither of them solves the 3B problem.
I apologize if this invites rosterbation, but I feel the question is warranted on a post about trading Prado. I’ve read cavebird’s comments on this post, and cavebird hasn’t liked any of the rumors. What would be a fair return, and, given our need for a back-up 3B, does such a fair return exist?
Obviously, there are many players we’d trade Prado for, but none of them may be available. Thus, we should just hold on to fan-favorite Prado. Makes sense to me.
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
Oh...Just for kicks...
We should trade Prado, JJ, and a prospect to Milwaukee for Braun—LF, check. Heck, he can play RF for all I care, more J-Hey to LF…
Then we should re-sign Bourn—CF, check.
Then we should re-sign Gonzo, just to piss off the Sea Bass “lovers” on this site—SS, check.
Finally, we should sign Pujols, breaking the bank this year knowing that Chipper’s and Lowe’s salaries will be off the books after this season. What about Freeman? 3B, check! Who cares about his range, for we now have this line-up: Bourn, Heyward (for he MUST bat 2nd), Pujols, BMac, Braun, Uggla, Jones/Freeman, Gonzo…AWESOME!
That was easy ;-)
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
I was gonna say "Stay classy"
and then I read your screen name.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
by duwanis on Nov 14, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
He’s been here before, and I made a similar comment to what you just said.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Nov 15, 2011 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
I honestly don't think there is one
as you say, Prado’s versatility in a single body is something we’d need two players to fill. Perhaps we can get that return, but I don’t see him being as valuable to any other franchise as he would be to us for his ability to backup Chipper.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'll answer your question with another question
If Prado isn’t worth more than Smith/Wheeler to teams other than Atlanta, should we trade him?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
No...
But I’m hearing things like “hold out for Fowler”, etc. Who says he’s worth Fowler and Smith? Us?
If Prado is more valuable to us than any other team, given our unique circumstances and need for a “super utility” player, then, no, we shouldn’t trade him just for the sake of trading him.
I WANT Prado back next year, but for selfish reason, as he’s currently my favorite Brave.
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
The two aren't mutually exclusive
“Hold out for Fowler” means we think he’s worth Fowler (or similar) to us, and if he’s not worth that to other teams then we shouldn’t trade him.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
New question...
This time directed at you.
Do you think a Smith and Fowler deal or even a Fowler only deal is worth Prado?
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
Dunno.
I’m not up on Fowler’s potential. I know I don’t really care for Smith. The only way I can see a deal like that working anyway is if FW has some deal locked up that gives us somebody who also has Prado’s versatility for the bench.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Thanks.
I’m woefully ignorant about players on other teams, other than the stars, and even those I’m iffy on.
I know almost nothing about Seth Smith, so, obviously, he excites me little. I appreciate your opinion.
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
You really shouldn't
haven’t you heard that I’m a pompous asshole?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You do wear a monocle...
It was the first clue!
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
But this is the Braves
the Braves have to value players according to them, not others, or the league as a whole. Prince Fielder holds lots of value, both to individual teams and around the league as a whole. But his value to them, or on the whole, is much greater than it’d be for us with Freeman already locking up the only position he could play.
So we can’t judge players based on their value to the league, just to us. And to us, Prado’s ability to play 3rd and give an .800 or so OPS is very, very valuable.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I agree...
But then I wonder why we’re shopping him at all…
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
Same reason the D Backs shopped Justin Upton perhaps
not saying Prado = Upton, because of course one is a much better piece than the other. Just the the Diamondbacks had him on the block, kind of but not really, to see what kind of offers he’d bring in. Nothing that they felt improved their future came, so he was never dealt. We’re in a somewhat similar position, in that Prado is a very valuable player, a good player who could be valuable to other franchises in need of a quality 2B, or a player of his skill and attributes off the field. If we get an offer than improves the team now and in the future, we’ll take it. If not, then we won’t. But it’s just general business to gauge the value of your players, and see if anyone values one of yours more than you do to the point where you can get a beneficial trade.
Of course, we might also be pulling a bait and switch shopping Prado to sell Diaz
http://sportsandgrits.com/
so you are saying
If Wren has a chance to rape another team via Prado, he would?
I think Wren is just dangling him out there to tease other GMs…he is cruel like that…..
Nah, Frank Wren knows his job is to help the best interest of the Braves. This doesn’t help that motive.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Disagree
The reason we are looking to trade Prado is that he has less value to us playing LF and backing up 3B then he does to a team that is in need of a full time 2B. We all like Prado heck he is one of my favorite players but we can’t let that get in the way of us knowing that he provides the greatest value at 2B. So instead of having Prado play an adequate LF for us all year we trade him to another team who will start him at 2B and net valuable prospects in return. It really is a simple equation.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Again...
So far, statistically, he’s a better defender at LF and 3B than he is at 2B. So why would he provide better value as a starting 2B than he would as a starting LF/3B?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Two flaws with your argument : 1. UZR on a single season in LF is not reliable. So you can’t resonable say he plays better at LF than at 2B. 2. 2B is a harder position to find offensive output then LF. In other words the exact same batting line at 2B would be worth more the at LF.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks Dustin. It took me a couple of months to warm up to the idea of trading Prado. In the end my desire to upgrade LF and knowledge that the Braves will not pay a utility player $5M won out.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
And if we assume his bat returns to form around .800 ops
just who out there is an “upgrade” at LF that is also a realistic possibility to be acquired (hence removing the Brauns, Crawfords, CarGos, etc that we aren’t getting)
http://sportsandgrits.com/
All over .800 OPS
Josh Willingham, Carlos Beltran, Dexter Fowler (.795), Seth Smith (.830), Hell even Frency had a .805 ops.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Willingham's defensive defincies negate any offensive advantage he'd bring
and even that’s suspect based on his declining OBP. Beltran’s health and declining defense make him similar. Fowler may or may not be able to replicate that away from Coors. Smith has the same problem leaving Coors, in addition to the fact that platooning him increases that number and it’d decline if he were a full time, 600+ plate appearance player.
And Francouer? Really.

http://sportsandgrits.com/
Nice picture
First of all I was definetly was not saying bring Frency back. I was merely mentioning him as a point of reference for how a +.800 ops is not hard for a corner OFer. In fact you could have a pretty long list of corner OFers who meet that qualifications. Those names took me 5 minutes to compile much less exclusive then your list of “Brauns, Crawfords, CarGos”.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
And none give us more than Prado can as all around players
so now you’ve lost.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
"So you can’t resonable say he plays better at LF than at 2B."
yeah, you can. You just can’t use UZR to do so. UZR is not the only measure, nor is it an absolute measure, of defensive ability.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
What advance stat would you use?
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure
maybe a combination of them. Unless Jacob Peterson has perfected and is ready to unveil the advanced defensive stat he was tinkering with.
Either way, your “you can’t reasonable say…” line is inaccurate.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Because you've rebutted my argument so expertly I see
and since you asked the question, please name a defensive stat that would be a reliable factor in such a single season sample.
Also explain how “you can’t reasonable [sic] say he plays better at LF than at 2B”? Prove that negative please. Then you can win the internets.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
There isn't one that I am aware of as a casual fan
which is why I called you out son.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
So I have no answer to my own question
therefore any answer another gives = wrong?
That’s genius.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Let me say this slowly
I used UZR in my argument. You said “UZR is not the only measure, nor is it an absolute measure”. I said what stat would you use. You said I don’t know and asked me to name another one other then UZR. I said I am not aware of one. You said I can’t answer my own question. The only thing you proved is you cant follow a conversation.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'll say this slowly
You said "UZR is not the only measure, nor is it an absolute measure". I said what stat would you use
None of that negates the quoted fact that “UZR is not the only measure, nor is it an absolute measure”. So nice try.
Plus continued reading after “Not sure” since we’re quoting, for accuracy’s sake, would follow “maybe a combination of them”. Them including uzr/150, total zone, and drs. I also further stated that if Jacob Peterson, of this site, has expounded and refined the defensive metric he was working on last year, I liked that more than any of the currently popular but often cited as unreliable defensive metrics.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
What is this Peterson algorithm?
This is the first I’ve heard of it, and I’m supremely interested.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I tried finding the article where he introduced it
but had no success. Hopefully he reads this, and can speak for himself.
If I recall correctly, it was more focused on outs instead of runs.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
There’s plenty out there…DRS, for one. It rates Martin as better than average in LF. and worse than average at second.
Rather than spending time calling people out when you have no clue what you’re talking about, spend some time reading up on this stuff. Then you can spend your time calling people out and not look like an utter douchebag when doing so.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
What's the fun in that?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
by duwanis on Nov 14, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sadly, I find the fun in reading about statistics as much as calling people out…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
That's not sad
it just means you have twice as much as everybody else.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I did call myself a casual fan and asked if there was a stat out there. As far as I know UZR has to have more then one season to be considered accurate. I was not aware of DRS or if it was accurate with only one season.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs
Looks like fangraphs uses DRS for only catchers. Probably why I was not aware of it. Interesting article though at what defensive adjustments in WAR would look like if DRS was used.
“When we calculate WAR at FanGraphs, we use a player’s UZR as his defensive input. This holds true for all positions except catcher, which defer to defensive runs saved (DRS), since UZR does not measure defense for catchers.”
Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/substituting-drs-for-uzr-in-war/
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Not quote
Fangraphs only uses DRS for catchers in terms of calculating WAR. The stat is listed in their Advanced Fielding section for players of every position.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Apologize for the misquote. Still implies UZR is a better stat to use for any position other then catcher.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
What it really implies
is that UZR is inherently unfair to catchers. But that’s beside the point.
Generally, yes, UZR is more comprehensive – the “U” does stand for “Ultimate,” after all – but just because we don’t have 3 full seasons worth of data doesn’t mean that the data’s totally invalid. The fact is that all of the defensive statistics – not just UZR, not just DRS, not even just his fielding percentage, all of them – suggest that Prado is defensively better as a third baseman or in left field than he is at second base (where we have more than ample numbers that suggest he is sub-par).
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Side note
this is what makes me distrustful to an extent of fWAR. They use UZR, in calculating value for a single season, and if I’m not mistaken as a significant component of that calculation since they place a good level of importance on defense. But in using that measure in their WAR formula, they admit that using UZR for a single season is not a good use of UZR?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Well...
It’s not like UZR is a totally flawed statistic until you have at least 3 years of data. For comparative purposes – i.e. comparing how well player A did compared to the rest of the league in any particular year – it’s valid to look at a one year sample. Since WAR presumably is taking that one year scope into account, I don’t have a problem with that usage.
To put it another way – the “we need 3 years” argument is really all about determining someone’s natural talent, whereas if you’re looking to judge someone’s relative performance in any given year, that year’s UZR (or DRS, or +/-, or whatever) is a perfectly valid way to try to judge that.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If UZR can accurately measure production in a single season
why does it need 3 seasons to normalize and give a better read of a player’s true defensive ability?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I think...
it has a lot to do with the fact that the people you’re comparing against changes from year to year. The exact same defensive performance could be above average one year and below average the next. So if you want to make a statement like “Player X is an above-average left fielder” as opposed to “Player X was an above-average left fielder this year,” you need to get at least a few years of data under your belt.
But, I haven’t extensively studied it, I’m just going by what I’ve been told in discussions on this site by the guys that know better. So, don’t take my word for it.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
UZR from fangraphs
Fangraphs recomends 3 years of UZR so it does not really matter if you are willing to overlook less then that. Especially if you are using their stat to argue your point.
“Beware of sample sizes! Like with any defensive statistic, you should always use three years of UZR data before trying to draw any conclusions on the true talent level of a fielder.”
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
You completely missed my point again.
Saying “Player X was a good/bad/whatever fielder at Position X last year:” one year of UZR is the only appropriate sample size.
Saying “Player X is a good/bad/whatever fielder at Position X:” you want to use the biggest sample size you can find, and be aware that anything less than 3 years is suspect.
This is a completely different conversation, so take your argument back to the other part of the thread :P
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
It implies UZR is better
in their eyes. As evidence by the multiple other defensive metrics, several in the advanced stat community disagree with that implication.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
What it boiles down to is that there is no really good stat to measure defense. UZR is the most widely used stat.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
So if there is no good stat
why did you tell the man "1. UZR on a single season in LF is not reliable. So you can’t resonable say he plays better at LF than at 2B. "?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
There is no perfect stat to measure D.
UZR is the best stat and most widely used. It requires 3 years of data. Fangraphs warns against using it wo 3 years of data. That is why I said you cant use one year in LFer to say that he is a good LFer.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
The correct statement would be
you cant use UZR over one year in LFer to say that he is a good LFer
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Lol
What it boiles down to is that there is no really good stat to measure defense. UZR is the most widely used stat. I used it in my argument. You challenged it. I asked you to come up with a better one. You couldnt. Others came to your defense with stats that are not superior to UZR.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Riddle me this
Why do you think Prado’s better at second than he is at LF or 3B?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I dont
That was never my argument. The corner OF positions are easier to play then 2B. My argument is that Prado offers the most value when playing full time at 2B. If Uggla was not on the team then the Braves would play Prado at 2B rather than LF because that is where he has the most value.
Another point I was arguing was that you were using to small of a sample size for UZR to say that Prado was good in LF.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Last time I checked, 3B isn't a corner OF position.
And you’re saying Prado has more value as a second baseman regardless of whether or not he’s a better defender there?

Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You guys are good with pics
3B is easier to play then 2B as well. Plus Prado has even less of a sample size at 3b then LF so UZR is even less effective.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Come on, answer it
you’re saying Prado has more value as a second baseman regardless of whether or not he’s a better defender there?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You are incorrect in saying I "couldnt"
I just didn’t cite them by name. I said a “combination of them” with them being uzr, uzr/150, drs, among other commonly used advanced defensive metrics. But we’ve already been over this. So why you are repeating something that’s already been proven incorrect.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
You dont have the sample size to prove your point about Prado in LF. You maybe able to argue that Prado is better in LF then 2B but that was not the arguement in the first place. The argument is that Prado offers the most value at 2B. My argument will be proven when Prado is playing 2B in 2012. Write this down and quote it. The market will prove my point in due time.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
The point about Prado in LF
Is that all the numbers we have suggest that he’s a better fielder there. Do you disagree with that?
The argument is that Prado offers the most value at 2B. My argument will be proven when Prado is playing 2B in 2012. Write this down and quote it. The market will prove my point in due time.
David Ross has the most value as a backup catcher sitting on the bench for 80% of the games of a year. This will be proven when he sits on the bench for 80% of the games of the year as a backup catcher. Write this down and quote it. The market will prove my point in due time.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
David Ross is a great back up catcher good point. I agree with you on something.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
And again, you missed the point
But it’s OK, I was being snarky, which may have clouded the issue.
David Ross would be most valuable to just about any other team in baseball as a starting catcher. But instead he’s going to play in maybe 40 games as our backup. What happens “in the market” doesn’t always add up to a person’s best value.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Just about anyother team in baseball is a huge overstep. You could prove 1/3 maybe and only if the other side didnt bring up the point that Ross has never played a full season behind the plate his entire career.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Nit-picky.
So you think David Ross is most valuable as a backup catcher? ‘cause if you do, I’ll gladly stop arguing right now.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If a guy has played all 9 seasons of his career and is 34 years old it is not nit-picky to point out that he has played his entire career at a back up catcher.
That being said I was very surprised when Ross was a FA that he did not attempt to find a deal as a starter. He appears to be a very selfless player who found a team that he likes and is willing to forgoe a starting position to be on a team that is in contention on a regular basis.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
So, you agree that he'd be more valuable as an everyday starter?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Not to “to just about any other team in baseball as a starting catcher.” Most importanley not to the Braves.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
But, to some team, he'd be more valuable as an everyday starter
so, OMG, WHY IS THE MARKET FAILING?!?!?!
/over it
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
The market does not fall. If some team valued him as a starter then they would trade the Braves for him. If the return to the Braves was greater then the loss then they would trade him. This hasnt happend thus he is a backup catcher. Maybe even the best one who made the choice to sign a contract as a back-up.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
They're less likely to be totally representative
but they’re all we have. Frankly, we have plenty of data on Prado as a second baseman, and the data indicates that he’s not very good at second base compared to other players at that position in the majors. So far he’s done considerably better at LF and 3B, and we don’t really have any reason to expect otherwise.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Hrm.
1) Who said anything about UZR? I just said defensively his stats are better. Which is true, and not really much of a stretch – it’s not like the best defenders in the game play at LF. But any measure you want to look at, whether that’s DRS, UZR, his error rate, all of them indicate (to the best extent they can) that he’s a better defender at 3B and in LF than he is at second. Could that be wrong? Maybe, but there’s no way to know until he gets more time out there.
2) The same batting line at 2B would be worth more than the same batting line at LF, you’re right. But we’re not expecting Prado to play the whole year at LF – the fact that our starting LF is also our backup 3B (and could be our backup 1B or even, yes, 2B) saves us a spot on the bench, which is valuable in its own right.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
1) Fangraphs only uses DRS is only used for catchers
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/substituting-drs-for-uzr-in-war/
2) Same batting line is worth more for a 2B then a 3B/LF/1B.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
See above
The “only use DRS for catchers” thing you’re talking about is just for the purposes of calculating WAR, and that’s only because UZR is incredibly unfair for determining the defensive worth of a catcher.
As for your second statement, you completely missed what I was saying – the value that Prado adds by saving us a roster spot and the value removed by the fact that he’s a less-than-average defender at second add up to make him more valuable to us in his current LF/3B role than to someone else who’s only going to use him as a second baseman.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
So because fangraphs uses UZR, that follows with...
“you can’t resonable say he plays better at LF than at 2B”?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
That was never my argument. The corner OF positions are easier to play then 2B. My argument is that Prado offers the most value when playing full time at 2B. If Uggla was not on the team then the Braves would play Prado at 2B rather than LF because that is where he has the most value.
Another point I was arguing was that you were using to small of a sample size for UZR to say that Prado was good in LF.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
“That was never my argument. …Another point I was arguing was that you were using to small of a sample size for UZR to say that Prado was good in LF.

http://sportsandgrits.com/
If you cant argue with words revert to pictures. Mr. Sanchez 101
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
More like
“When the person you’re arguing with stops making sense, why bother typing?”
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
See the block quote
my “argument” is in there. You, in a single post said that was something you both weren’t arguing and were arguing. Bravo sir, bravo. Because of such arguing while never arguing, your “argument” is therefore invalid. The picture just adds to the comedic nature of the contradictory statement you made.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Reading for understanding is fundamental. There were a lot of words in that paragraph I am not surprised that it tested your ability to understand.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
OK
Now I know you’re just a troll.
/ignored
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Just re-read the post that he was talking about there are two distinct points. I understand that there was a lot of back and forth going on and it would be easy to misread it on his end. But if you are going to call me out and say that I contradicted myself I have a right to defend it.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
That might work if we were in a rebuilding mode
but for a team that is looking to make the playoffs, they’d need an immediate return as well, not just prospects. And the LFs definitely better than Prado are just not available, so upgrading NOW as well as in the future is just not a likely outcome.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Reality
Mid market teams are always in a sort of rebuilding mode. A Prado trade could net prospects or a LFer. If it nets prospects then we gain the money that we would have spent on Prado in Arb and use that money plus Lowe savings to pursue a FA.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
And look at the FA options...
none of them are guaranteed to provide as much production on the whole as Prado, nor replace the full value he’d bring to the roster both in LF and as a capable backup when Chipper goes down.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Seth Smith or Dexter Fowler
Both meet your + .800 ops requirement plus we get cheaper in the process and maybe a prospect. The exact reason why Prado has more value at 2B. Lot harder to name + .800 ops at that position.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
See above
neither meet that criteria without significant question marks, especially Smith.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Follow the bouncing ball
So rebounding from a .687 ops the previous season is not a significant question mark but playing at coors field is?
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
For a hitter who has proven when healthy
over several seasons comprising their entire career, yes.
And please read. Fowler has Coors, and a career that has shown he’s not an above average hitter (last year is his only season with an OPS+ over 100), and a career h/r split with a more than .150 point difference away from Coors. Prado’s worst year is about the same as Fowler’s entire career away from Coors-a .691 ops in over 800 career plate appearaances). Meanwhile Smith not only has the severe Coors h/r split, but also has been a platoon player for them. Not having to hit against lefties exaggerates his ops to something it would not be if he was a full time player.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
If you use home and away stats
Over the last 3 years Prado bats .815 ops at home and .729 away an 86 point difference. Fowler is worse at .850 ops at home and .700 away at 150 point difference. Fowler is 25 years old and only been in the league 3 years. As he has improved as a hitter his in 2011 his home was .811 and his away is .782 a 29 point difference. Not as far off as you are making it seem.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 14, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
We have an entire year before we even have to worry about that. We can easily fill the position via free agency or trade next year.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah easily like with a Troy Glaus type
All sarcasm aside I’d like an in house replacement in the minors as opposed to signing garbage. The thought it that you can just reallocate Chipper’s salary but Hanson should be coming up for arbitration shortly and Bourn isn’t exactly gone.
TV Journalist Chris Hanson is a cockblocker
Savings from Chipper’s retirement will be gone in a blink of an eye. McCann is due a $3.5M raise in 2013, Hanson, Medlen and Venters hit arbitration and we’ll need to replace or re-sign Bourn, Diaz, Hinske and Ross.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Diaz...
…is easily replaceable. If we didn’t have him under contract, we wouldn’t sign him for next year. Hinske and Ross would probably agree to stay for about the same amount or be replaceable for the same amount (even if we couldn’t get the production replaced for Ross). Bourn could be tricky/expensive to replace, and Hanson’s arb will be significant. That, plus McCann’s raise will eat most of it, but we’ll probably have a little bit left over.
I think it’s entirely possible that Wren is dangling Jurrjens and Prado to get talks started and switches to Hanson or even Beachy to get the return he needs.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Why would we switch from Jurrjens to Hanson?
Hanson will be 1/10th the price of Jurrjens.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Not really though
considering we’ll need a starting 3B this year when Chipper misses his usual month or more. If not Prado, then who?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Conrad!
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Bleh.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Love Prado, but he’s best at 2nd base and that spot is filled. Teams love having guys like Prado on their team cause he’s a good hitter and just does all of the little things. Seems like he has a leadership mentality too.
Hate to lose Prado, but we seriously need some upgrades. We are on the cusp of being a championship caliber team again.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
jose bautista would be an upgrade in left. lol
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Bautista plays RF and 3B
evidently, he hates LF.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 14, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
For that trade
I’d look into moving heyward to left and putting bautista at RF and backing up 3B when Chipper goes down. Would actually work out pretty well imo
What are you basing that on?
Statistically (albeit in smaller samples), Prado does us more good at LF and 3B.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
The problem, however...
…is that none of the names being discussed in Prado trade rumors (Seth Smith, etc.) or in trade Prado sign free agent scenarios (Cuddyer, Willingham, etc.) are actually upgrades of any significance at all. And none have the backup 3B thing going for them, except for Cuddyer (whose 3B defense is not particularly good).
Future CFer?
It seems odd to me that we’re already talking about a CFer of the future.
What about Bourn?
He’s still young, and yes, he will get paid when his contract is up.
But, if he lives up to his billing, he should be worth whatever it takes to sign him.
Am I missing something?
I’d be ok with a 4 yr big bucks deal for Bourn (like $40-45 mil)
He’s the type of player that’s worth keeping in FA.
I’d rather have Bourn then Uggla. I’d trade Uggla if it freed up the money to keep Bourn.
Bourn probably can command $50MM-$60MM over 4 years because of his unique skill set.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Nov 14, 2011 12:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Seriously?
Ull regret saying that when Uggla hits .285, with 35 homers and 110 rbi next year….idiot
by bravesfanldh on Nov 14, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously?
Ull?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Yeah..seriously
You obviously know the meaning so why try and play the grammar card? Oh dear lord please don’t tell me the you’ll was spelled ull…..there’s just not feasible way to decipher his intent now….your just another bro who tries to call out the imperfections of everyone else to make yourself feel supreme….well come at me bro, don’t try and act like your better than me because you corrected a simple grammatical error that wasn’t even an error at all, it was intentional..who cares if it isn’t typed all the way out correctly if you still understand what I’m saying. You should probably get checked out for OCD if something like that bothers you enough to comment on it.
by bravesfanldh on Nov 14, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't correct it, actually.
I just find it ironic that you horribly mangled your native tongue while asserting that someone else was an idiot. Kind of kills your credibility, regardless of its legibility.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
First, who are you to assume that this is even my native language? Second, I was not implying that someone else was an idiot, simply that the statement (trading Uggla before Bourn) was. So saying it is ironic that someone who spelled you’ll as ull called someones IDEA idiotic is comparing apples to oranges.
And how do you arbitrarily throw out 11 years as the appropriate age for someone who comes to the conclusion that the world actually won’t end if you’ll is written as ull. And I obviously don’t care if what I post is taken to seriously….its a fucking blog, i’m not getting paid for this shit so why should I be concerned even the slightest with minute grammatical tics and further more why should I care if you care, if I new you cared I actual would probably have butchered it further just in pure spite of the fact that your a pompous dick who assumes he is the voice for all people, as exemplified by “and so do the rest of us”. When did you become dubbed the leader of everyone who writes here…“we’re not eleven”, really? Are you so lonely that you have to imagine everyone on here is under your leadership and guidance…and further it’s pathetic that you think this should be taken so seriously as to not have room for ull and u or whatever the fuck someone decides to use, if you view this as such a serious matter then I pity you for the stress the other concerns in your life must bring. I never said I was trying to be taken seriously, I simply put up an opinion. Your statement made four incorrect assumptions, by my account your up four to one in errors…probably time you start trying to chew yourself out. Peace.
by bravesfanldh on Nov 14, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
1) Am I wrong, is English not your native language? It was an educated assumption as people for whom that’s not the case tend to use that fact in their defense.
2) “…idiot” == “you’re an idiot,” “…that’s idiotic” == “your idea is idiotic.” Bit of a difference.
3) I haven’t mentioned the number eleven, much less made assertions about you or your age. But, I’m ok with the idea that you confused me with C.
4) I’m really amused you spent all that time posting that.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Cool post, bro...
I said 11, and that’s sadly the age that a lot of children are getting cell phones these days, which is the impetus of the txt speak that is turning our society into a bunch of literary morons.
its a fucking blog, i’m not getting paid for this shit so why should I be concerned even the slightest with minute grammatical tics and further more why should I care if you care, if I new you cared I actual would probably have butchered it further just in pure spite of the fact that your a pompous dick who assumes he is the voice for all people, as exemplified by "and so do the rest of us".
The only reason I quoted that mess is because I wanted to quote the full sentence. Periods are your friends.
Why should you care?? Well, if you know anything about blogs like this one, you should be well aware that we all comprise a community in which we exchange ideas amongst each other for mutual benefit.
When you write, “ull,” I have absolutely no good reason to take you seriously. Which is fine…if you don’t want to be taken seriously. You might as well write in all caps, as far as I’m concerned. If you can’t take the time to follow the language’s proper format, I don’t have time to read your drivel. You might as well talk to thin air, as far as I’m concerned.
Now, if you want to actually try to exchange ideas with the people of the community, here are some simple guidelines. Do NoT wRiTe LiKe ThIs BeCuZ iT hUrTs My BrAiN, OR LIKE THIS BECUZ ITS ALSO HARD ON MY EYES. It’s not k 2 b typing like dis cuz v h8 2 c the English language to be butchered by folks that are too lazy to type their message properly.
The bottom line is that if you want to get your points across, you should probably type like an adult. If you don’t care what people think of your comments, why did you bother?? Seriously, tell me why you took the time to write out any of your 50-ish comments if you didn’t care whether they were read and well-received or not. Seems to me like that’s a waste of time, unless you planned on conversing with others about something Braves-related. Perhaps I made the mistake of inserting logic into your thought process.
Am I lonely?? No, because I have actual conversations with people that don’t speak like a they grew up in a bad rap video. I am able to foster good relationships with people from all walks of life as a result of my ability to clearly articulate my points, and people appreciate others who share in this strikingly rare form of effective communication that isn’t predicated on sharing something in 160 characters or less.
To be honest, most of what I’ve read coming from your ID has been pretty sub-par, but that hasn’t bothered me. I can put up with bad writing skills if the ideas have merit, and I can condone horrible ideas if they’re done with some effort in articulating the message. However, you became so defensive of your right to sound like a halfwit that I felt that it deserved a little bit of ridicule.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 14, 2011 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
who cares if it isn’t typed all the way out correctly if you still understand what I’m saying.
I care…and so do the rest of us. This isn’t a goddamn telephone and we’re not eleven. If you want to be taken seriously, write seriously.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 14, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In fairness...
I often post from my phone :-)
But I concur: spelling and punctuation are always welcome sights on blogs.
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
wtf U try'n 2 say dude...
IF U can read my * & U get my point…thats all that counts
:>D
IDK wat ur tlkin abt
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 14, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Ull regret saying that when Uggla hits .285, with 35 homers and 110 rbi next year
over under on that?
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 14, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
maybe the 110 RBI is a little wishful thinking, but the century mark shouldn’t be so improbable. I think actually having Bourn for the entire season will pay huge dividends for his RBI production this year…how many freaking solo home runs did he hit??
I called his turn around from the dreadful start last year, so hopefully I’ll be right here as well. Does .275, 30 Homers and 100 RBI sound more reasonable? Whatever the case, I think he will have a stellar year, so long as Bourn keeps getting on base (and depending on where he bats in the line-up..he had his most productivity batting 4th behind Freddie).
by bravesfanldh on Nov 14, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
You "called" his turn around?
It was inevitable that his stats progressed to the mean, Miss Cleo.
Winky face.
Sad, really...
That merely having a certain agent makes some players off-limits to some teams, like the Braves.
Not saying you’re wrong; I’m merely indicating my displeasure with Boras. Obviously, he couldn’t care less what I think…
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
… and the Braves have a problem (understandably) with Furcals previous agent. If you stop dealing with @sshole, unscrupulous sports agents – you are not going to have anyone to deal with.
- ChillyMutt
Got it...
Then what’s the problem with resigning Bourn?
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
it has nothing to do with "dealing" with Boras
there is no bad blood there, but Boras just always takes his guys to the open market and always wants absolute top dollar. he’s never one to cut any kind of discounts.
maybe if the Brave’s get a new owner by next year they’ll have a shot. otherwise I don’t see them having the money to give Bourn what he’ll command on the open market.
Money
Boras isn’t someone we refuse to deal with, it’s just that players with him tend to be not among the underpriced. We have limited funds, and if Myke Jones is deemed ready, or we get one of these cheap, potentially big time CF prospects from the Rockies, or another CF steps up ready to take the job, then a team on a limited budget may find a better way to spend those limited resources than on a CF with good but not great on base skills, completely reliant on speed and wanting a big contract in to his mid 30s (he’ll turn 30 after next season ends).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Is it too late to nominate this for the "understatement of the year" award?
Boras isn’t someone we refuse to deal with, it’s just that players with him tend to be not among the underpriced.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I understand...
But I was wondering if a Bourn extension has even been discussed.
My guess, based on the comments on here and the Braves rumors involving CF, is a big, fat “No.”
It’s a shame, for I like what Bourn brings to the table…
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
that's another Boras thing
he almost always shoots down “extensions” he ALWAYS wants his players to hit the market.
Got it...
Thus, we basically have no choice but to compete on the open market, at which point we’ll lose to a team willing to overpay him. You said this above, but it finally clicked.
Dang, I like Bourn, truly. At least we have him for next season, which is a contract year.
/jeffblausered
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
Except he works for the players, not the other way around
it’s not common among his clients, but he does have several who want extensions more than the open market. It is Boras’ job to accomodate those wishes when his clients have them, and still negotiate the best deal he can in those circumstances.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Yes
because he is arguably the best in the business, and makes his clients happy. He fulfills their wishes, whatever those wishes may be. Again, not all want free agency, some just want the best deal possible from the current club and have no desire to become free agents on the open market. Not saying Bourn is among those, but he has negotiated long term extensions for several clients such as Carlos Gonzalez last winter.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I'm sure they are thinking about it
but actual negotiations probably wouldn’t occur before next spring, at the earliest. Plus it’s not like he tore the cover off the ball on arrival, so they may be waiting to see, among other things:
1) How Myke Jones develops
2) How Bourn does in a full season in Atlanta
3) If Bourn suffers an unfortunate leg injury destroying his value while we still have control but not a long term expense
4) Just how much he’d want in an extension.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
How long is Blackmon under control?
dude showed some great athleticism against the braves this year. Not for a straight up trade with Prado but as an addition. Any chance he could he shift to CF after Bourn moves on?
Still has all six years...
Last season’s partial time is all he’s used up. The question is how good he is…most don’t see much more than a 4th OF. I’m not willing to give up Prado for that…Wheeler and Smith, on the other hand, fits pretty well both short-term and long, if Diaz can hold up his end of that platoon.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Again
If I’m Wren I would ask for Arenado and leave the cost at that.
and they'd decline, and it'd be dead
he’s as valuable as Teheran, and more valuable than any position player we have in our minors.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
he’s as valuable as Teheran
ummmm, no. while he is untouchable, if me mentioned Teheran, the Rocks would not only give us Arenado, but Story as well.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 14, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
But we aren't mentioning Teheran
which was the point. We could just as easily play the Heyward, Tulo game here. The price it’d cost for Teheran is the same as the price for Arenado which is the same as the price for Tulo which is the same as the price for Heyward. Whatever that price is, and it’ll vary amongst the 4, but that price, neither side is going to be willing to pay, so there’s no point in bringing up what would be a dead end discussion.
Yeah, we could get Arenado for Prado if we threw in Teheran, but we aren’t, and they aren’t giving him up.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I...
Highly doubt this.
You’re going to see Arenado ranked really high in all the lists next season and Story’s probably not going to be far behind him…may not be ranked top 100 next season, but if he continues to do well, he’ll be climbing the ranks very quickly.
Position prospects are much more valuable than pitching prospects, so I highly doubt the Rockies would be willing to give both up for Teheran.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I don't like the rumors with the Rockies
I think we could match up better with someone else and get more in return for Prado and or Jurrjens than a platoon OFer and a prospect . Unless we are just trying to dump salary , which wouldn’t be much of a gain after taking Smith in the trade , it just doesn’t make much sense .
The huge problem with the Rockies as a trading partner...
…is that all of the guys who aren’t off the table are left-handed. And if we are moving one of our few right-handed hitters, that doesn’t make for a good fit.
The ONLY way we accept Smith in the deal
Is if the minor leaguer is Arenado, and the Rockies sure as hell won’t do that.
Walk away, Wren.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Hellickson is the AL ROY
a mild surprise for me since I though Pineda would have gotten this
by LEastCoastBears on Nov 14, 2011 2:03 PM EST reply actions
Hellickson, Trumbo, Hosmer are the top 3
by LEastCoastBears on Nov 14, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Lets trade em.
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Nov 14, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
and then move him to LF, so Prado can play short
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Nov 14, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Queue the Fan Shot Post on Prado at SS in 3…2…1….
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 14, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn’t make sense to trade Prado or JJ unless we are overwhelmed. Why would we trade Prado so we have a platoon in LF and Conrad backup Chipper for 40 games? That’s an upgrade? The only way we trade Prado is if we can get Fowler and Arenado/Wheeler and that sure isn’t going to happen
JJ is different from Prado
Prado’s versatility and ability to ops around .800 are something we don’t already have in the organization. Jurrjens on the other hand, we have his ready replacement in duplicate form (Teheran, Delgado) at 1/10th the price. I’d agree with the wanting to be overwhelmed for Prado. But for Jurrjens, I’d say we just need a good return, be it prospects or immediately ready players.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
right
but if we trade JJ, it means we are going to rely on basically two rookies to hold down the back of our rotation. Without JJ, we lose a good chunk of our depth. Wren stockpiled our pitching for a couple of reasons, this is one of them. If injuries occur, we can keep on going without missing a beat. I will find it hard to believe that if Wren doesn’t get the package he wants for JJ or Prado or any other Brave, they are staying put.
Because rookies have been so problematic in our rotation?
And at some point, we have to use them right? It makes no sense to delay clearly ready arms just because we can only go with 1 rookie at a time. Oh, but we’ve filled our rookie rotation quota this year Julio and Randall, you’ll have to wait until next year. But only one of you, because it’s single file line around here.
Not trying to call you out, but this “two rookies in our rotation” nonsense is ridiculous.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Having two rookies is only part of my argument. Yes, we would have basically two rookies as the last two spots in our rotation. This means would be counting on them to stay healthy and be somewhat productive. If injuries occur, who’s starting? You think Delgado is ready to start 15 games in the majors?
As evidence by his late season performance
Yes, I think Delgado is ready for 15+ starts in the majors, as would be Teheran. And if injuries occur, we can sign some cheap vets ala Rodrigo Lopez last year. There’s also Kris Medlen and Christian Marthinez who have proven capable of starting or effectively working extended innings. There’s Todd Redmond, Arodys Vizcaino, among several other options not already mentioned. We have several options to fill out a rotation, with or without Jurrjens, and with or without injuries (of which Jurrjens is the most likely candidate to succumb to one).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Delgado pitched 35 MLB innings. That’s not exactly a large sample size. Teheran definitely should compete with Minor for the last spot. Medlen is destined for the pen, but he could make a spot start here or there. Same with Martinez, but they are not long term options. Vizcaino should spend the majority of the year in AAA. Redmond is the only one left unless I’m forgetting someone.
If injuries hit
why does Vizcaino have to start in AAA when he could just as easily make the same starts, pitching the same innings in the bigs? I don’t follow. Yeah, it’d be preferable that he spend as much of the season as possible starting for Gwinnett, but it’d be preferable to have every starter take their turn as expected with no injuries.
Medlen can certainly be a long term option, as he’s started and looked great at it the last healthy season he had.
You also forget the sign one or two Rodrigo Lopez types as an option. As well as internal, less than ideal options. JJ Hoover has starting experience galore, and could be an emergency option similar to Medlen/Martinez. Zeke Spruill will begin the year in AA, but that doesn’t preclude him from being an emergency option as Randall Delgado was last year. Jose Lugo, Chris Masters, could also fit that not ideal but in an emergency category, since by that time our staff would be decimated to oblivion anyway if you’re going 12+ deep in starters which we’d be after the original 6 + Medlen + Martinez + Vizcaino + Redmond + the 1-2 veterans we are sure to sign for AAA as injury insurance. Gilmartin could be ready late in the year, as Minor was 2 years ago.
But yeah, we have plenty of options with or without JJ, and will almost assuredly sign a couple of Rodrigo Lopez/Chris Resop types with big league starting experience to join Vizcaino and others on the AAA rotation should injuries prove there be a need as you are asking about.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
We don’t even know if Vizcaino is going to be starting. Wren didn’t mention him as an option, so I’m not sure how you can include him. Looks like Hoover has been permanently moved to the pen. Spruill will probable finish next year in AAA. Masters has made one start in AA. How does that make him an option? If someone does down for a long period of time, none of these guys are options except maybe Medlen. Counting on a couple of Lopez/Resop types isn’t exactly a formula for success especially if our offense doesn’t produce.
Oh no question about that. I wouldn’t use Lopez or Resop as an option.
Now Scott Proctor, on the other hand...
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 14, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
I agree...
Plus, I’d hardly call Beachy and Minor rookies any longer.
Heck, Delgado looked pretty darn good last season. He’s not a vet, but he’s pitched in some tough places (and pitched well).
"Don't go ninja'n nobody that don't need ninja'n!" ~ Kung Fu Hillbilly.
If he meant Beachy and Minor as rookies, that'd be 3, not 2...
because with Lowe gone, they are already both penciled in to the rotation. Beachy has lost his rookie status after 140 innings last season. Mike Minor had 82, after 40 the year before, giving him over 120 on his career. So I think he’d fail to qualify as a “rookie” also. Which means we could have both of them as well as Teheran or Delgado in our opening day rotation and only have one “rookie” in said rotation.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Beachy just pitched the whole year in the majors, why would I consider him a rookie? I didn’t realize Minor has pitched so many innings
I said you didn't
It seemed like Jman was suggesting that, which is why I said something.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Sooo
Your basically saying that we should keep a reservoir of talented young pitchers in the waiting just for the rainy day when one of the starters gets hurt and we need someone of equal caliber to step in and fill the rotation spot? I’m all for having servicable back-ups, but whats the point of stockpiling and boarder-line hoarding talented young pitchers when they could be used in everyday roles and we can trade some or at least one of the starters on the rotation for a position player we desperately need, say ss and lf? Just makes sense to trade some of your excess to get more of what you lack.
by bravesfanldh on Nov 14, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
We can trade Prado because we’re going to sign Mark DeRosa. He’ll back up Smith in left field and 3b. Tyler P will back up SS and 2B. We’ll use the Jurrjens trade to aquire prospects as well. We need to get some outfield prospects and 3B prospects who are close to major league ready.
OH SNAP
WE’RE GETTING DEROSA?
/me puts on his party hat
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Apparently you're a tad late to the party...
as DeRosa retired a week-or-two ago.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 14, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Tigers may be interested?
Morosi adds that the Tigers are willing to trade left fielder Delmon Young for the right second baseman, but it’s not known whether the Braves are interested.
Delmon Young, huh? Right-handed, check. Has some power; check. Not really crazy high on him, but we could do a lot worse.
Personally, if I’m in FW’s chair, I walk from that deal, if Young is the return.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 14, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
plus his salary is a little too high for my liking
If Halladay, Lee, and Hamels all break their arms while playing tag in the clubhouse, We'll be set
by suicide bunting is a sin on Nov 14, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
could ask DET to kick in a million towards his salary. basically then be splitting the difference. we’d be paying Young $5m and they’d be paying Prado $5M.
I think we’d also have to ask for another player or additional money since Prado also comes with an extra year of team control whereas Young is a FA after 2012
Brennan Boesch
He is left handed, but doesn’t have a huge platoon splitt. At least 4 years of team control.
Where would Smith play? RF?? Seems weird to have a whole outfield that is left handed
by PhuckthePhillies on Nov 14, 2011 7:03 PM EST reply actions
He'd probably platoon in LF
No reason to start him in RF, since Heyward probably isn’t sitting unless it’s against a tough lefty.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
HERES THE SOLUTION
Trade J.J. for prospects or just to clear up money to help sign Beltran to play left field and DeRosa for utilitty infield and to play for chipper when he misses games (it’s innevitible) keep Prado! let him play f*cking shortstop.
Wait, can Prado play shortstop? That may be huge.
Quick, somebody write a fanpost.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
by duwanis on Nov 14, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
From MLBTR
The Braves seek a Zack Greinke-like deal for Jair Jurrjens, writes Heyman. He later tweeted, “Jurrjens understandably popular on trade market. A star and only 25. You know Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, others are in.”
Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and others?? Who does this possibly open up for us in trade?
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Yankees – maybe Swisher + cash to cover the difference in salary? Maybe we do a JJ and Prado (who could back up Gardner in LF, or ARod at 3B, as well as let ARod, Tex, Cano, etc DH) for Swisher and a prospect or two?
Red Sox – Jed Lowrie, among others possible
Rangers -I’d like to say Elvis Andrus if we add a prospect, but Nelson Cruz makes more sense
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I really like a Nelson Cruz for Jair Jurrjens swap, but I think we would have to add something to it. Also, with Cruz, we would really want to keep Prado as his injury history isn’t
exactly sparkling.
by dlkinser86 on Nov 15, 2011 10:17 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Seems like more speculation than a rumor.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
DON'T TRADE PRADO!!!!!
per mlbtraderumors.com…
saying that prado trade talks with rockies have slowed and it seems that rockies are only willing to part with seth smith and a low level prospect!!!!
If that is all the Braves are going to get in return I hope they pull Martin off the block… PLEASE keep PRADO A BRAVE!!!!!
If the Braves are going to trade Prado it better be for a very good package of players…
We're not trading him to the Rockies if that's all we'd get, no
but there’s no reason to “pull him off the block” just because one team isn’t going to match up with us.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
After glancing over the posts in this thread I see that I’m not the only one who really really needs some baseball.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Prado for Young might be happening
There is a trade brewing between the Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers centering around Martin Prado for Delmon Young. Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez told me he wants an impact right-handed bat. Trading Prado, who can play second, third and left, would sacrifice the Braves’ insurance plan for aging veteran Chipper Jones, who is a major health risk at third base.
I still think it needs to have a bit more to it though. Either some money coming back or other players.
this would be a disaster of a trade....
young is probably one of the worst right fielders in the game… absolutely horrible in LF. I live in Twins country and watched him quite often and have a lot of buddies who were twins fans, and let me tell you most of them couldn’t stand watching delmon play the game. I really hope this trade doesn’t go down…
by BravesFanND on Nov 15, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
streaky and a health rist himself
young is also an extremely streaky hitter and he is not in the best shape, has trouble staying healthy….
any trade centering around young is not going to turn out good….
It needs to have a lot more to it. This would be BS.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
but, he does hit pretty well with runners on and in scoring position
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
"Major health risk"
Playing Chipper Jones Causes Lung Cancer, Heart Disease, Emphysema, And May Complicate Pregnancy.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
well maybe not
mlbbowman
Small minority of Wren’s staff has unsuccessfully pushed for Young last 2 yrs. Didn’t work. Nothing changed. Won’t be a Prado-Young deal
i hope this is true
but it seems like you can never say never…

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