What Are You Up To Frank?
by ace16tx on Nov 10, 2011 2:42 PM EST
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Over the last few weeks there has been enough rosterbation on here to drain a Jergens factory. So don’t take this piece as rosterbation. I am simply trying to read Frank Wren’s mind.
Braves nation was thrown into a tizzy this week when Ken Rosenthal reported that the Braves plan to “increase payroll.” The only thing is we already knew this. Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported a few weeks ago that there would be a modest increase somewhere in the range of 3 million (from 87 to 90 million if you are counting.) But is that the increase Ken was talking about? I don’t think so. Rosenthal reported that Wren would not disclose the amount in mind for “obvious competitive reasons.” So why the sudden ambiguity? I believe this means the payroll may go up in the range of 5-8 million dollars.
But how is Wren going to jack up the payroll when we already know that the Braves aren’t perusing the likes of Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes (thank God!) The rotation is set. If anything Jurrjens will be traded to open up a spot for either Minor or Delgado (assuming Teheran takes Lowe’s spot.) So in that case the Braves won’t sign a pitcher. The outfield is presently set. The keyword there is “presently.” Prado’s name has been slung all over the place the last two weeks.
Which brings me to my main point. Earlier today Jayson Stark quoted a unnamed rival executive on the Braves saying, “The impression we got is they've got to unload money. They want to get a bat, and the only way to do it is to unload money. The one guy they'd move, no problem, is Martin Prado. He seems like he's fallen from grace over there.” Fallen from grace? I wouldn’t go that far but it does seem as if the Braves are ready to make a move to make sure September 2011 never happens again.
All of this leads me to believe the Braves want to sign Michael Cuddyer. He makes perfect sense. The Braves aren’t going to blow their load on a shortstop because they don’t want to block what is their deepest positional depth in the minors. Also, Cuddyer won’t garner the mega contract the Braves can’t afford. There hasn’t been any reported talks between the two but that could change fast. Troy Renek of The Denver Post has been tweeting that the Braves want a center fielder in return for Prado. If the Braves traded Prado and got Charlie Blackmon in return they are worse off than when they started. But if they are trying to open a hole in the lineup for someone else then that makes perfect sense.
My other ideas are they might sign another great arm for the bullpen. There was also a report a while back they want a front line starter to compete with Halladay and Lee. But that is a whole different story. I think the Braves will go hard (T-Pain voice) after Cuddyer.
This might be a wild offseason......
Tell me what you think!
***Update*** I am not arguing for or against trading Prado and signing Cuddyer. I'm saying what I think Frank Wren is thinking. For the record Prado is my favorite player and it would rip my heart out to see him go. In my opinion the Braves would be better off keeping him and just trading Jurrjens for a minor league bat.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Wow – have to say I was pretty disappointed when I got to the end of this and your big guess was that they were going after Cuddyer. He’ll cost a draft pick, so I highly doubt they would give that up, plus $5-10M per
+1
Cuddyer at this point would not be a huge improvement over Prado. Not to mention he’s older and would cost us a pick.
He probably...
…wouldn’t be any improvement at all.
by cavebird on Nov 11, 2011 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So we’ll trade away Prado so we can lock money into another aging player for next few years who Prado is probably better than?
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
it appears more than anything that the braves want consistent RH power in the OF
buddyer has averaged 22 homers and 82 RBI’s over the last 3 years and he’s done it hitting for average
What are you basing that on?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
this
"The impression we got is they’ve got to unload money. They want to get a bat, and the only way to do it is to unload money. The one guy they’d move, no problem, is Martin Prado. He seems like he’s fallen from grace over there."
plus LF power is all we ever hear about from the front office as indicative by quotes from DOB Bowman and Jim Powell
"They want to get a bat"
doesn’t imply power.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
And then they go out and trade for Bourn
interesting way to go after power.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
In fairness, they’ve also been chasing the prototypical speedy leadoff hitter ever since Furcal left.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Totally fair
Also kind of my point. We have a lot of possible needs to fill, I wouldn’t count on them to just wait on a power bat. Especially not if we can get a great deal on something else.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
cuddyer is not better than prado, really.
except for the one outlier year, cuddyer is a 15-20 homer, .260-.280 guy. that is exactly what prado is, and i daresay prado has better potential with batting average. he is also more expensive and older than prado. i just don’t see the appeal.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
He had a big 32 HR season 3 years ago, otherwise he’s been a 15-20 HR a year type of guy for most of his career.
If anyone signs Cuddyer thinking that he’s going to hit more than that for them for them is setting themselves up for disappointment, especially now that he’s heading in to his mid 30s.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
FYI, saying this isn't rosterbation
doesn’t mean this isn’t rosterbation.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
i'm not arguing or suggesting
i’m saying what i think is happening.
for the record my favorite player is prado and i think the braves would be better off keeping him
You're presenting an argument for what you think is happening
…which is still basically rosterbation. But, this post is about 4 times longer than any of the other “not rosterbation” posts that have gone up lately, so I’m OK with it.
For the record – I would be surprised if we went in on Cuddyer. He’s not really what we want, or what we need.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I do agree it’s better than most of the others.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 10, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
And in fact, is often an indicator that it is
just like “Not to bring up politics” is usually followed by something political, “Not to be offensive” is usually followed by something incendiary, and “not to be rude” is usually followed by something rude.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Cuddyer would be a dumb move for this team
The Braves need more than magic tricks.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Let the Phils Have Cuddyer
so they can just have one more aging player on that payroll. Prado is basically the same player as Cuddyer, but cheaper and won’t cost us a draft pick.
Honestly, at this point I would rather just keep Prado, use Diaz and Hinske in left occasionally, then give Terdo a chance in left if he keeps raking. None of the FAs are worth giving up a draft pick, and I don’t think Wren will give up any of the four horsemen for an outfielder not named Matt Kemp.
I agree with this too
I just wish Diaz and Prado didn’t have such off years last year,
it’s the erratic years causing us to doubt them both
I agree with this
But I’m beginning to get concerned with FW’s overreactions to bad seasons. I was disappointed with their seasons last year too, but Prado could just as easily go back to being a .300/15/80 player next year, and that’s as much production as we could get from anyone on the FA market.
I’ve got to wonder if this is going to hurt our chances to sign some of our homegrown guys to long-term deals later — I wouldn’t, if I thought that FW would trade me after a down year. I get that FW is always trying to make our team better, but sometimes that means being patient with players. Especially players like Martin, who are leaders on and off the field.
by Phillip Ross on Nov 10, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
I wish I had seen this comment sooner, and I wish this sentiment wasn’t shared by so many Braves fans.
The Braves’ interest in trading Prado is not necessarily a result of his struggles last year. It’s not that the Braves are “overreacting” to his season, and we have no reason to believe that they’ve lost faith in him to be the .300/.350/.470 guy we all knew him as coming into last season.
The thing is, Wren wants to use the offseason to make this team better. So how do we do it? We can’t upgrade the pitching staff other than signing some veteran depth for the bullpen. So we can only look to improve our positional players. McCann, Freeman, Uggla, Chipper, Bourn and Heyward are all cemented into their positions for different reasons. We’re not going to move any of them, and improving on their production is too tall of a task.
That leaves short stop and left field. Short stop is a very weak position with few players that add significant value to the team. So we look to left field. Is Martin Prado a good player? Of course he is. Is it easy to upgrade from him? Not necessarily. Is it possible? Definitely.
Jurrjens is going to be traded for reasons pertaining to cost and depth. That frees up a little bit of money. Now, with left field being the only real logical area to improve our team, we look at how we might do that. Well, we’re probably going to need to clear up a little bit more money if we want to find a really good player for that position. It’d be great if we could get a new left fielder and keep Prado as the super-utility player, but it’s probably not feasible for financial reasons. That means that, if Frank Wren feels there is a player out there that we could acquire and would represent a significant upgrade over Martin Prado, then the best course of action for us to take is to trade Prado and bring that player to Atlanta…whoever he is……he’s definitely not Cuddyer….
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
I doubt Diaz because I think he is in major decline and will be out of baseball, or at least MLB, after next season. I seriously question whether he makes the 25 man roster out of ST.
I will explain. He is going to be 34 years old in March and is a former 17th round draft pick with relatively limited natural athletic abilities who until 2010 had consistently provided value based almost solely on a very good to excellent bat tool, although he has never produced big power numbers.
He was injured and only had 140 PA in 2008, but here are other slash lines:
2006 (322 PA) .327 /.364 /.475 /.839
2007 (384 PA) .338 /.368 /.497 /.865
2009 (425 PA) .313 /.390 /.488 /.878
2010 (244 PA) .250 /.302 /.438 /.739
2011 (268 PA) .263 /.302 /.323 /.625
In 2011, he had zero HR and only 14 XBH.
What is the basis to think he is not in major decline?
Yeah...
He might make the roster, but only if we don’t want to pay him to play for someone else. I love caveman but I’m not sure he’s got it anymore.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Didn’t Wren just say in an interview he’s not interested in FA OF’s tied to draft pick compensation? Or am i imagining that part?
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 4:35 PM EST reply actions
What is Wren doing?
In my opinion, he’s looking at every possible option. He wants to trade, not sign. We don’t have to trade Jurrjens or Prado, but if he gets a great offer, fine, jump on it. The best way to get those offers is to say they are available. Likely, half the teams in MLB will be interested in one or both. We might be hearing rumors for months.
Frankly, I think he’s waiting on things to clear up in Boston. Eventually, Jurrjens, Hanson or even Beachy might be traded for a SS, an outfielder or prospects. Scutaro fits perfectly, a $6M SS one year away from FA. Middlebrooks fits too, a 3B one year away from MLB.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
doubtful
that Hansons’ getting traded for anything less than in a Kemp package.
JJ and Beachy, sure. we don’t want Middlebrooks, the guy can’t take a walk (which I guess is the reason our FO would be interested, seeing we don’t believe in OBP). scutaro is done.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 11, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
The problem here is that
I don’t see anyone out there who is available, can make a significant contribution to the team, and is affordable.
With DLowe gone, we know the pitching is set, just need to fill in spots for LInebrink, Sherrill, etc. And FWIW, I would like to see what the 2011 lineup could do with an even half-assed coaching philosophy in 2012.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
The Braves won 89 games and missed the playoffs by 1 game. We’ve already strengthened the rotation by replacing Lowe with Minor, Teheran, Delgado or Medlen. The Phillies will still be getting old, but will still be tough to beat. The Marlins look to be trying to restock and be more relevant. The Nats will eventually be a pretty good team too.
We must be able to win some games in Sept vs our NL East rivals. I hate the thought of trading Prado. It would take 2 moves to replace him and if Wren only makes one, that could put Conrad at 3B for 40-50 games. That’s NOT going to win games in Sept.
I’m thinking Wren should keep Prado for his versatility. Trade Jurrjens for prospects, maybe a bench player and salary relief. Use that relief and the rumored salary increase to go after Rollins for SS. Rollins and Bourn at the top of the line up would be a good start to games. Bourn might be gone after 2012, Rollins would be a good guy to have around.
Bourn CF L
Rollins SS S
Chipper 3B S
McCann C L
Uggla 2B R
Freeman 1B L
Prado LF R
Heyward RF L (.400+ OB% from the 8 spot, LOL)
That could compete with the NL East teams in Sept. A half-assed SS isn’t going to do it.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Given Rollins' weak OBP...
…why would we bat him second?
OBP? Is that on the scoreboard?
/Francouer’d Fredi’d
Although in all seriousness, the guy has been a top of the order hitter all his career. If we signed him, (which we obviously won’t given our desire for a short term solution and his for a long term contract, barring the aforementioned 1 yr/$30m deal) you really think Fredi wouldn’t stick him behind Bourn just because and not think twice about it. I can even see the quote now when his old legs regress to the .296 obp from 2009, “I thought he, Chipper, and Heyward were basically the same”
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
I really wish I’d never mentioned Rollins, replies here and the Rosterbation thread show him to be a bad idea. I just want a decent SS for 2012, not a bandaid. I’m not convinced Pastornicky is going to be the man and Simmons is 2 years away.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I don't think the "Simmons is two years away" holds water
his D is ready now. If he can prove to make contact at the higher levels, we aren’t looking at anything worse than Sea Bass as he continues to develop at the plate. If he can make contact like he has been, his D is more than enough to stick. So imo, we’ll find out this year if he’s ready, or if his bat needs a ton more work. 2 years implies he steadily improves, I’m thinking he’s either 1 year away, or several, but no in between (which would be the 2).
ANd Wren seems to love Pasty, so the concerns about him probably need to be soothed by faith in Frank.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
I can buy that
As a genral rule, I consider a player getting ready to start AA for the first time “two years away”. Simmons defense could certainly speed that up.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Exactly, Simmons defense makes his bat a different deal. He could move up quickly simply because of that, if his bat proves to be something other than a liability.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Come on, that would never happen
Fredi would never consider Heyward to be in the same league as Chipper.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
False
Chipper is also a failed outfield experiment.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Nov 14, 2011 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Oh snap
you’re right, my bad.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
i think i have just figured this out...
Jason heyward is going to be our short stop next year and we r going after corner outsiders and dangling prado to see who is available!
I am a genius!
by dcbravesfn on Nov 15, 2011 5:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Reasons to Trade Prado now
1. Expected arbitration salary this coming year: ~$4.4 to $4.5m, with one more Arb year remaining before free agency. Still reasonably affordable for teams seeking utility, OF, or 2B help… a good assortment. What if we hold onto him for 2012: then what?
2. Let’s say he puts up a great year in 2012. Now his Arb3 numbers get into the “can we afford this?” range…. say $7 to $8 million… for a number of teams. If we can’t afford that, his trade value will actually be reduced since we’d expect a trade partner to take all that new salary… leaving essentially nothing more than a minor prospect coming back.
3. Let’s say he has a 2012 that mirrors his 2011 performance. Now his trade value is diminished because there’s a collective “uh-oh” out there after back-to-back downers. His Arb3 numbers won’t be prohibitive, but then it would be harder to find a trade partner simply because nobody wants him… and at that point, we might just have to non-tender him and move on.
The Braves need to figure out – pretty quick – if Marteen is in their long term plans. If so, offer him an extension and be done with this trade stuff. Otherwise, we need to trade him this off-season for the best available deal that we’ll ever get. Would it be a better deal if he’d had a great 2011? Sure thing — but at least now we had everybody thinking 2011 was poor due to injury and that he’ll bounce back.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
✖
and at that point, we might just have to non-tender him and move on.
Seems a bit harsh. Have to admit, though, I am very biased. Marteeen is my third favorite player, trailing only Chipper and Mac. I’m hoping they’re all lifetime Braves, but I understand the business aspect of it.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your opinion, man. -The Dude
2. Let’s say he puts up a great year in 2012. Now his Arb3 numbers get into the "can we afford this?" range…. say $7 to $8 million… for a number of teams. If we can’t afford that, his trade value will actually be reduced since we’d expect a trade partner to take all that new salary… leaving essentially nothing more than a minor prospect coming back.
We barely missed the playoffs this past season and have, basically, the same team coming back. If Prado has a great season then we’re probably in the playoffs.
We can certainly afford to keep him (he’d still be well below market value in arb) with Lowe and possibly Chipper off the books. And Martin Prado a 2B/3B/LF who has had 3 good-to-great MLB seasons and still in arbitration is going to get a much bigger return than a minor prospect.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Oh yeah — if he’s the “2010 Prado”, we probably don’t care, since we’re in first place…. my primary point of the post is in the realm of “WWFD” (What Would Frank Do?) given that Prado’s actual trade value is probably never going to be higher than now — and that may very well be the motivation for him being dangled.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I disagree, if Prado has a good-to-great season (which I believe he will) he’ll have just as much, if not more, trade value next off season. More money and only one year of control, but he’ll also be seen as more of a sure thing.
Quite frankly if the best offer we’re getting are Smith or Young, then his trade value isn’t all that great at the moment anyway.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
And there's the fallacy of your argument.
The goal is not to always make sure that the future is better than the present when you are trying to win now. If Prado has a good or great 2012, his trade value won’t be lower than it is now and we will have gotten a good year at below market value from him. That’s what we need.
And that is the primary point to me.
The Braves are or at least IMO should be primarily focused on winning now. And that being the case, why deal away a solid player who can adequately cover a number of defensive positions and hopefully make a major offensive contribution to the team’s success? His trade value is largely irrelevant if the team is in the win now mode and will not likely be appreciably improved in the short run by whatever players would be received back in any hypothetical trade.
Given the player Martin Prado has consistently been and the obvious fact that his 2011 performance was very negatively impacted by the serious staph infection, the reasonable assumption is that he should be the "2010 Prado" in 2012.
We also outperformed our expected win total last season based on runs scored vs runs given up. And even if Prado does bounce back, there are plenty of other question marks. Will Chipper put up another good season? Will Heyward right the ship? Will Freeman pull a Heyward and sophomore slump? Will the rotation stay healthy and give us enough innings to lay off the pen (who will also have to stay healthy)? Not to mention the Marlins and Nats continuing to get better. Standing pat may not be as safe as you seem to think it is.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Well, yes, when you’re putting together a baseball team you kind of have to hope that everyone will play to their talent level and stay relatively healthy. We need to find a way to upgrade at SS without making ourselves worse elsewhere on the field. If moving Prado is part of that, then fine, but the odds of us adding a LFer that can match what Prado is likely to provide with the bat are fairly slim IMO.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
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