Two Big Moves
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 9, 2011 1:21 PM EDT
Email
PrintTrade for Alexei Ramirez.
Alex Gonzalez helped the Braves make the playoffs in 2010. He was an all-glove stopgap in 2011.Considering his waning hitting abilities and durability issues, he shouldn't be a full time starter anymore. Pastornicky played great in AA and AAA in 2011, but lacked both patience and power. His minor league career numbers are .278/.345/.374. Again, those numbers lack patience and power. I'd be willing to give Pastornicky the benefit of the doubt and ride his .314 BA in 2011 if he were a defensive wizard. He's not. Baseball-Reference's minor league range factor has marked him below average compared to his Minor League cohorts. The Braves have been among the leaders in ground ball rates the past few years, and it would be too much of a risk to ask Pastornicky to be a starting shortstop for a contender. There are not a applicable replacement for Atlanta in the free agent market. The Braves need more production from their SS this year than just another glove-only guy. The front office needs to be creative. They should trade for Alexei Ramirez.
The Braves have a wealth of starting pitching. Considering the way negotiations played out for Michael Bourn, Frank Wren clearly values his pitching depth of eight (or nine) viable Major League starters. Applaud Wren for not giving up any of the big pitching prospects to get a great player like Bourn -- but after a disappointing season, there are fewer and fewer excuses to keep 9 viable MLB starters. Trade strength for strength. The White Sox overspent last winter and the GM has publicly stated he could make a lot of changes. That team needs to get cheaper and younger. In my mind, a fair trade would be Alexei Ramirez for Randall Delgado, with some cash thrown towards Atlanta's way.
I don't see the Braves trading Beachy with the numbers he put up last year. Teheran is off the table. Vizcaino's stock has likely gone down since it looks like he's being groomed to be a reliever. Mike Minor is surely MLB ready, but U.S. Cellular field isn't really a kind place to lefty pitchers. Enter Randall Delgado. Delgado had an ERA of 2.83 in the majors (despite walking nearly as many as he struck out and only having an minor league ERA of 3.88). Trading for a young, talented pitcher is exactly what The White Sox are looking for. Most teams wouldn't trade a completely cost-controlled prospect for a 30 year old SS, but the Braves should. The backup starters for next season would be Julio Teheran, Kris Medlen, Derek Lowe, and possibly Arodys Vizcaino! That unique pitching logjam means it's time to move some pitching in order to get production from one of the most vital spots in the field. Alexei Ramirez fills that hole.
Ramirez's greatest asset is his glove. Over the past two years he ranks 1st amongst all shortstops in UZR, 7th in +/-, and 3rd in outside-the-zone plays. The Braves cause a lot more ground balls than the White Sox do, so I could imagine his glove contributions improve even more, the way Alex Gonzalez did. In addition to his elite defense, he brings something not many shortstops don't -- close to average production as a batter. His career OPS+ is 96 compared to Gonzlaez's career OPS+ is 80. The Braves replaced a glove-only guy in Schafer with a better glove and league average hitter in Michael Bourn, and they became a better team. The same should happen with Alexei Ramirez. In 2011, Ramirez was nearly a 5 WAR player. He hasn't been on the disabled list, he runs the bases well, and the Braves require much more production up the middle. Alexei Ramirez is an excellent fit for the Atlanta Braves. The remaining years on his contract are 4 years/ 32 mill with an option for a 5th year. (The contract is structured in such a way that benefits the Braves, as it is more back loaded by the time Lowe, Hudson, and Chipper are off the books). The contract is reasonable considering the positional scarcity that Ramirez offers. With McLouth and Kawakami coming off the books, adding him to the payroll should be no trouble at all.
Derek Lowe to the bullpen, no exceptions.
It was a rough year for Derek Lowe, no question. However, there were positives. His K/9 rate and his Swinging Strike% were above career norms. His sinker was a meat pitch this year, while his slider was very good. In a bullpen role he can actually be very effective. Peter Moylan is a sinker-slider pitcher who works in short relief with great results. In short relief, Lowe's velocity and pitch selection would be able to suit a bullpen well much better than asked to be a starter at age 39. He was an effective reliever for Boston, and I expect him to have a great strikeout rate while still being a ground ball machine. His starting days for Atlanta should be done. He could start for another team, but his contract is unmovable. Due to his strikeout tendencies, he is not a sunk cost. It will be hard to have a $15 million dollar man in the bullpen, but this is a move that has to be done. I would not like to see him make any spot starts either, considering the Braves' young pitching depth. He should be told this winter work on his pitch selection and mechanics to be a reliever exclusively. In that environment I would expect Lowe to actually help the team and free up a rotation spot to have an opening day rotation of Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Beachy, and Minor. I'll take that!
Bonus Move 2.5 - sign Andruw Jones for limited playing time. Prado has to be better than what last year showed. Him as a player who can play LF-3B is vital for a team that will employ a 40 year Chipper Jones. Hinske and Andruw Jones can play the outfield some as well. Andruw's isolated power in each of the last three season has been over .200, so he can still swing. He also can play the outfield in limited duty. I would have to wait and make sure he's in shape before he's signed though.
Bourn
Heyward
Chipper
Even Year Uggla
McCann
Freeman
Alexei
Prado
Hinske, Andruw, Conrad, filler, filler
Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Beachy, Minor
O'Ventbrel, Medlen, Lowe, Martinez, Moylan/Gearrin
With the Phillies rapidly aging, I like that team to be 2012 NL East Champions.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Ramirez is a good player who plays good defense but isn’t exactly a great hitter.
You say Pastornicky has no patience but Ramirez doesn’t either. A career .323 OBP isn’t good.
I wouldn’t mind us trading for but Delgado is to much. I would actually rather trade Jurrjens for him.
2. I agree the best place for Lowe is the bullpen but the Braves will try very hard to trade him first.
2.5 Jones is an AL player now. He can still hit a little but he can’t play OF anymore.
One other issue will Ramirez is his contract. He has 4 years $31M remaining with a $10M option for 2016. His contract is the big reason why I would rather move Jurrjens for him.
I said
on the rosterbation post to trade Hanson for Alexi and one of the 2 young 3B, Morel or Viciedo.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
That would not be a good trade, even if it does guarantee that Alex Gonzalez is not a Brave next season.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 9, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
you are drunk again. Alexei is drastically underrated in this thread.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I like Hanson….a LOT.
I’m not underrating Alexei. I love Alexei. But I don’t love him more than Tommy.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
but Morel and Viciendo are very solid players and should contribute to the major league level, straight up no way do i do this deal, but the promise of a prospect is intriguing.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Viciedo is not an NL player
His best defensive position is DH, and really what should be his only position.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 13, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely.
There’s a reason they call him “The Tank”.
Pastornicky played great in AA and AAA in 2011, but lacked both patience and power.
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with a .345 OBP— that’s solidly above-average, especially when you consider that his career minor league walk rate is nearly double Gonzo’s. Besides, if you want a short-stop who has both patience and power, you might want to look somewhere else, because Alexei Ramirez has a walk rate barely above Alex Gonzalez and a SLG % of only .407 the past 3 seasons.
Pastornicky has an OBP at about .350 and OPS of about .750 in his AA and above games…I’ll take that at the minimum…
After a year-and-a-half
of Alex Gonzalez, I would weep tears of joy at those numbers.
The question is how many runs will Pastornicky cost us with his defense? Sea Bass partially made up for his bat in that way…
I think the number of runs Pastornicky can produce with his speed and bat would far outweigh the drop-off in defense, because you also have to remember that Gonzalez will be 35 at the start of next season, and SS is not a position that ages well defensively. Besides, even with his stellar defense his hitting was so poor that he was only worth 1.1 WAR this season, which is pretty much bench-player level.
I think Sea Bass is worth signing, especially for $1MM-$2MM for 2012…if nothing else than at best he’s your starting SS providing +20 run diff and giving you anything extra with the bat…at worst he’s your late-inning defensive replacement.
Just one small question:
Why would the Chicago White Sox trade their franchise shortstop?
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
Most teams would rather have a SIX YEAR cost controlled pitcher with a career minor league 9.5 K/9 than a 30 year old shortstop. The Braves are in a unique position where Randall Delgado wouldn’t do them much good. The White Sox should be willing to cut payroll this year.
The White Sox would be nuts not to take this deal.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 9, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see how any franchise would be nuts to not trade away a talented, relatively young shortstop — and one who they obviously value based on his contract extension last year — for a young starting pitcher, but we’ll see.
Re-sign Alex Gonzalez, let TP continue to develop in AAA, focus on acquiring an actual left fielder. That’s what I think we should do.
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Oct 9, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you partially. Re-signing A-Gon for one year so that TP can continue to develop is a great plan but I just don’t see why we would sign a top flight LF when that would remove Prado from a starting role.
After Chipper retires after next year or, Heaven forbid gets injured for a extended period of time, Prado will be our starting 3B, correct? So why would we want to hurt his at bats and have him ill-prepared for his starting at bats by getting somone who takes his everyday position?
by carlyastrzemski on Oct 9, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Prado would see plenty of playing time at 3B with Chipper’s injury history. Combine that with a potential injury to Heyward considering his knack to get banged and then normal rest for Freeman and/or Uggla — two positions Prado is capable of playing pretty well — you’re looking at 100 starts or so, and that’s if Chipper and Co. make it through the entire season relatively healthy. And that’s not including if the new left fielder gets injured at all.
Everything works itself out in the end. You can never have too much depth and Prado is special to the organization because of his versatility. Even his numbers in 2010 would have been pretty average for a left fielder, so why not get the most out of him by making him the super-utility player he is so well suited to be?
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Oct 9, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
My only thought is....
with Prado probably getting a raise in arb, can we afford a new LF and him on the bench?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Trade him
I’m positive there will be some teams interested in him, plus it would free up money for us to spend on acquiring either a speed or power guy
I didn’t think about him getting playing time on a regular basis through Uggla and Freeman plus Chipper. That changes things, especially if the new guy got hurt or needed some days off.
Of course this is all depending on whether or not our fearless leader actually uses him like that before the last two months…
by carlyastrzemski on Oct 10, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
the white sox aren't going to get younger and cheaper by trading alexei ramirez
that would be like telling the braves to do the same by trading tommy hanson
and i would like the braves to decline hinske and sign greg dobbs
they would certainly get younger and cheaper by trading Alexei who is 29 and costs 5M, for Delgado who is 7 years younger and 4.6M cheaper. that is the definition of getting younger and cheaper.
it doesnt mean they would accept the trde though.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Wrong
1of the big moves needs to be finding a LF who can hit for power and moving prado to super utility
2nd big move needs to be finding a stop gap SS
Just because you have a surplus of value, doesn't mean you give it away!
This would be over paying!…… I like Alexei, but he’s not the kind of player you give up a kid like DelGado for. DekGado would be most teams number 1 pitching prospect! Let me repeat that, HE"D BE MOST TEAMS INCLUDING THE WHITE SOX NUMBER 1 PITCHING PROSPECT!…. You just don’t give that up for a 30 year old SS, that isn’t anything special with the bat. On the other hand the Sox do have a SS prospect that has been labeled special with the glove that is MLB ready…… I f the Braves where going to take a chance I would be willing to bet a package of MLB ready prospect Edurado Escobar(SS) and Of prospect Brandon Short along with another spec would make alot more sense! While Braves fans will not be excited with the names, it’s more likely than an ove paid older SS.
Where do people get the idea that Delgado would be most teams #1 pitching prospect?
He checked in as the 25th highest ranking pitching prospect on the BA mid-season list. He’s a very good pitching prospect, but he’s not elite. Don’t let 35 MLB innings when opposing teams didn’t have a good scouting report fool you. I’d trade him for Ramirez in a heartbeat.
Try looking at what the Sox have in their farm system!
Also you have to look at how many teams have multiple pitchers in the top 50 pitching prospects. And last if you don’t think the way he pitched in the major’s at the end of the season raised his stock, you are just fooling yourself to prove your point. He would be most teams top pitching prospect, I didn’t say every. Most is considered more than half. So out of 30 teams, he’d have to be #1 pitching for at least 16 teams, so yea, I’ll stand by my statement! Delgado for Alexi at this point and the money involved would be an over pay IMHO, I wouldn’t do it. Since FW wouldn’t part with any of the 4, to get Pence or Bourn. Why on earth would he do it for Ramirez? I like Ramirez, but not at that price.
18 teams had a pitching prospect rank ahead of Delgado on BA's mid-season list
And no, I don’t think Delgado posting a good ERA in 35 MLB innings significantly raised his stock, especially when the underlying numbers weren’t that good and he showcased the issues with command that dropped his stock in the first place. He also had some struggles in AAA following that list and never really picked up his AA performance.
As far as Ramirez’s value, it is much higher than Bourn or Pence in my opinion because he plays a tougher position to fill and he’s under team control for significantly longer on a team friendly deal. You act like the money involved is prohibitive, but you’re talking about just above 8 million a year for a guy who has been the 4th best SS in baseball over the past 3 years by fWAR with two of the guys above him (Jeter and Hanley) being SS in name only. He’s an elite fielder and baserunner (not basestealer but baserunner) at a premium position with an approximately league average bat. That is an incredibly valuable player. Much more valuable than an unproven pitching prospect like Delgado. Honestly its not even close in my opinion.
LOL.....
The list for top prospects has not even come out yet for the upcoming season. Their will not be 18 teams with pitching prospects ahead of Delgado. And no matter how you try to slice it, 7 starts pitching well in a play-off race, at 21, can only help your stock! It doesn’t matter the stats, he gave his team a chance to win in a play-off race, that will boost your stock, plain and simple. And since the White Sox are the team in question, their top pitching prospect is Greg infante and he has already been moved to the pen. So guess what? Delgado would be their top pitching prospect. Sale just like Minor and a lot of other naes on that list you speak of, have lost their prospect status.
Back to Ramirez….. And let me say agin, I like him as a player! I just think you are over valuing him. 8 mil is not just penny’s for the Braves, no matter if he is a SS. I don’t get into the hole WAR thing, just to many things that you cannot account for. You saying he is 4th best SS, just gives me more of a reason to stay way from it. In no paticular order Reyes, Tulo, Hanley, Jeter, Esco, Castro, off the top of my head, I’d take all of these guys over Alexei. You seem to be a fan of his and that’s all good, but I refuse to over pay! I stated this somewhere else….. If the Braves where to deal with the White Sox centered around Delgado and a SS, Id’ be willing to bet it would be White Sox top prospect Eduardo Escobar and not Alexei. It wouldn’t make anysense to me to give up a 21 year old stud pitcher for a 30 year old SS, that’s not an all star at the plate and makes 8 mil.
There are thos of us that over value prospects, there are those of us that under value prospects. I sit right in the middle. I think you are under valuing on this one my friend. And it needs to be repeated. FW wouldn’t give him up for arguable the best defensive CF’er in the game. Wouldn’t give him up for a guy that was hitting .300+ in a play-off race. He’s not going to give him up for a guy who’s not either when there are other options.
Ramirez makes $5MM next season, $8MM the year after. Then 9.5, 10, and a 10 club option.
If you can’t see Ramirez’s value at that price tag, you’re not looking hard enough.
The belief that he would even be traded is what really gets me…there’s absolutely no good reason for the White Sox to do that, without a tremendous overpay.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
1) I thought it was 8 mil per. Not saying you are wrong, that’s just what I was lead to believe.
2) And no I don’t see the value in giving up future #2 starter for a 30 year old SS that doesn’t wow me, when there are other options!
Including waiting and seeing wher we are come deadline time. We are not desperate, no need to over pay. Also this is not about what i would or wouldn’t do, it’s about what I think FW will do. I like Alexei, but at this point it would be an over pay.
3) As for the Braves read above, if they trade for a SS the White Sox have, my money is on Eduardo.
4) As for why the CWS would do it? Future #2 starter with Eduardo ready to step in and take Alexei’s place.
So much wrong...
So I’ll start at the beginning.
First, Alex Gonzalez doesn’t have durability issues. He missed a paltry 13 games last season, and five the year before. His previous missed games prior to that was due to a horrific injury, not a nagging thing.
Secondly, a nearly 70-point split between AVG and OBP does not describe a lack of patience. His 2011 BB% isn’t all that grand, so there’s something there. But you’ve mischaracterized it in your argument.
Third, the White Sox do not need starting pitching. They had a six-man rotation for a good chunk of last season before trading away Edwin Jackson, and only Buehrle is a free agent. Zach Stewart came over in the Jackson trade and should fare better with another year under his belt. They may also bring Buehrle back, so they could have a six-man rotation again. Kenny Williams also stated that Chris Sale will be given every opportunity to start next season, which adds another player to the ChiSox’s depth. He was, after all, their top prospect a year ago. Three men that will comprise the future rotation are still a couple years away from arbitration.
Then there’s the idea that Chicago would even be willing to move Ramirez. They wouldn’t be. That deal is incredible, from a White Sox standpoint. You’re talking about a guy that is putting up 4-5 WAR/season for the next few years making $10MM at his most expensive season, which is still 4-5 years off.
Total value of Ramirez in his first four years, based upon WAR: $54.9MM. Total cost of all 9 years of Ramirez, in actual salary: $46.25MM. Yeah, I think you keep around a guy that’s already exceeded the value of his contract, five years early.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I don’t think it’s time to crown Pastornicky a SS of the future. Call me crazy, but I don’t think his AAA Babip of .398 is that sustainable. With the ground ball rates and Uggla at 2nd Atlanta needs a defensive expert at SS and Pastornicky is probably not that guy. Since Sea Bass became a starter in 1999 he has had only three season in which he played at least 150 games. I’m very skeptical he can retain his value for another season.
The White Sox do have a top 10 prospect of their system in Eduardo Escobar who did get a cup of coffee this season. If they decided to move Alexei and his backloaded contract (which entering age 30 I’m sure we can all agree 2011 was his likely peak season at 4.9 WAR) for a great MLB-ready pitching they would first have to decide what to do with Buehrle.
When the GM says publicly there will be likely be an overhaul of his team, other GMs should try see what’s on the table. In scenarios like these, trading a 30 year old for a 21 year old is not uncommon.
The Braves didn’t get enough production from SS last year and Alexei’s defensive profile and better plate approach would fit very well in Atlanta. The White Sox don’t look like they’re going anywhere and should trade for cost controlled young players.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 10, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
150 games is setting the bar awfully high. 62 players made it this season – that’s 26% of the available on-field starting positions. Even 140 is pretty high, and he adds a couple more seasons under that banner. Once you realize that a huge injury derailed his career for almost two full years, the percentages aren’t so bad.
To put it another way, he came back from that injury in 2009 and is tied for seventh in most games at SS since his return…
All this said, I don’t think Sea Bass or Pastornicky are going to start next season.
However, the biggest errors are still in thinking that Alexei Ramirez is going to be traded. Escobar struggled last season, despite getting a cup of coffee at the end. You’re not going to move a 4-5 WAR guy making $5MM to play a struggling prospect. That would be like moving Michael Bourn to play Jordan Schafer, except from the Braves perspective rather than the Astros, with Bourn locked up for another five years. It would be stupid.
There will be an overhaul, but not at a position you have locked in at high production for low dollars. They’ll probably try to get Konerko to waive his no-trade clause (they’d move Dunn, but he has no value atm) to get value on the trade market, Juan Pierre will go and Viciedo will slip into that spot, Quentin could be sent somewhere, and Rios may get cut altogether. May cut ties with Peavy also, but that’s less likely. When you make a statement by overhauling the team, you get rid of the guys that struggle, not the guys that produced. This isn’t a complete rebuild, as they have a ton of pitching that’s still quite viable.
They have cost-controlled pitchers – three of them that will all have a shot at next year’s rotation. With their pitching depth, they could very well trade another pitcher for talent, rather than take on another pitching prospect in trade.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
The Braves should be realistic about the SS position next year. AG and Pastornicky shouldn’t be viable options at this point in time and there’s very, very little other options.
The White Sox should be realistic about overhauling their roster. Their Pythag record was only 75-87. Konerko won’t garner much at all considering the $25 million dollars he’s still owed, his age, and his Windy city inflated HR totals. I don’t understand what good it does to try and sell off pieces that underperformed or bring nothing back. Alexei is locked to a fair rate, but they should listen to offers for a 30 year old SS. Having him play for them into his 30s doesn’t do them any good — especially if he were to get hurt playing for them. Now is probably when his stock is the highest.
I thought about the idea of trading Delgado for JJ Hardy (similar skill sets, ages, and contracts), but I’d rather have Alexei, as he has a better record of staying healthy than Hardy. It’s true BAL is a more pitching starved organization, but I think the White Sox would still benefit from Randall Delgado.
Either way, I’d really like to see the Braves use their pitching depth to get a SS.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 10, 2011 3:21 PM EDT reply actions
Either way, I’d really like to see the Braves use their pitching depth to get a SS.
And they might…it just won’t be Alexei Ramirez, because the White Sox would be fools to trade him without a ridiculous overpay.
Also, Konerko still has plenty of value moving forward, for some team. 2.5-3 WAR at $12MM isn’t bad at all, and that last season is prorated, so he’d only cost $7MM up front. Plenty of value there.
The reason you trade away underperforming pieces is because you want to have a successful team moving forward. You’re not getting the return you’d like, but you’re also freeing up a ton of salary revenue to be used in other places. The White Sox are probably using next year as a rebuild, but can still compete following year with their current pitching staff – it’s not like the division is a strong one.
They have a protected 1st rounder this year, so they can go after someone without losing a top-50 pick…and do it again next year, projecting 2012 as a rebuild season, that will net them another top-15, protected pick. At that point, they could have easily signed a couple decent stars, grabbed a couple high-ranking picks, and cleared a ton of payroll room. Toss in a young catcher (say Flores from Washington) for a Floyd/Danks deal, and they’ve set themselves up for a quick turnaround.
This is not a team that needs to blow itself up in order to find success…no team with a solid rotation should go that route. Cut bait with some overpriced players at a loss, use your protected pick status to get solid FA without sacrificing the future, trade from excess using players with expiring control and keep your good, cheap long-term players in place.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Derek Lowe...
for Carlos Lee straight up. Both are in their last year of their contracts. Lee is owed around 18 mill, but Lowe being probably our 7th best SP it would be wise to make this swap. Lee is a hitting upgrade over prado, and that would leave Prado to be the super Utility bat and still see a good amount of at bats while subbing guys and keeping them fresh. Another guy who is owed 18 mill in his last year is Torri Hunter, would be a very good upgrade on both sides of the field and keep Prado in the Utility role.
If we didn’t trade Lowe I’d have strong interest in Shin Soo Choo. Great OBP guy with pop and a threat on the Basepaths. Delgado and another guy or two? Only problem is he’s lefty.
Lee has a no-trade and has repeatedly said he’s not moving.
That and he doesn’t provide much of the up-side that Lowe could. A decent 2011 does not negate his pedestrian and horrible 2009-10.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
if the Indians let Grady walk
I want him signed the next day. Its a high risk but if he could give us one healthy season that would be dynamite. Him and Bourn at the top of the lineup would be quite dynamic.
by drumzalicious on Oct 10, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know.
Grady is a very good player when healthy, but he is a lefty. So who do you sit? I don’t think you ruin Jason’s career any more than you already have slowed his maturation and it would be hard to take Prado’s RH bat out of the order.
I’d like to see them pick him up for cheap, but it’s just hard to see how he fits in.
You realize that SS who post back to back 4+ WAR seasons don’t grow on trees right?
As a matter of fact the only SS who posted 4+ WAR in 2010 and 2011, are Alexei and Tulo. I operate under the assumption that most GMs are not total idiots (that does not preclude partial idiocy). With that in mind elite SS, which as mentioned, based on the aforementioned back to back 4+WAR seasons, he is, are not routinely traded straight up for SP prospects, even prospects as good as Delgado.
I suppose there is precedence for this trade, the Lawrie for Marcum trade would be similar. But that is a very rare exception. I do not see it happening again. Especially because Marcum is no where near as elite as Alexei is.
Sure Alexei’s bat isn’t great, but he does everything on the field, he has solid power, a decent BA, steals bases and might be the best SS defensively in baseball( he is at least on the short list)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
My friend, just another reason to not believe in War. I could care less what his WAR rating was, because as with other player’s it’s sometimes misleading. He’s not better than a healthy Tulo, Reyes, Rollins, or Hanley. And I wouldn’t take him over Esco, Castro or Elvis, So IMHO I wouldn’t consider him elite. What does elite mean to you? To me as position player he needs to be in the top 5, IMHO he’s not. He is a good defender, maybe even exceptional in some minds and solid with the bat, but that does not make you elite. One of the better SS in MLB? Yes. Elite? No!
And I don’t know why this is such a hot topic, Neither team will do this trade. FW has said he’s not parting with his top pitchers! I’m sure their are a few guys out there good enough and young enough to change his mind, I don’t think a 30 year old SS will. And I like Alexei, I just think you guys are forcing this.
I don't care for the trade myself, but it's worth pointing out
that just because FW says something doesn’t mean that’s his actual attitude towards a potential trade. A lot of stuff gets said that’s designed to play the market.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
As stated...... There is maybe a guy out there that makes him change his mind....
Alexei is not that guy! I’ll repeat again he wouldn’t give him up in a play-off hunt for 2 guys that most people would have thought would have put us over the top in Beltran and Pence. Both of these guy are far better at the plate, in a play-off race where we needed hitting. And FW wouldn’t give him up. So I see no reason why he would give him up for a SS without that ability at the plate when there are cheaper options, prospect and cash wise. It’s not Alexei or Bust!
No matter if you think he’s worth it or not. That’s not te issue. It’s not going to happen! FW views those 4 as almost untouchable, and Alexei’s not the kind of player that will change that.
Or maybe FW fully expects to deal some of the pitchers
and he’s talking up how he absolutely won’t trade them in order to get a better deal out of them. That’s all I’m saying.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Come on man......
FW was true to his word at the trade deadline and has been true to the things he has said in the media since he took over. So there really is no reason to doubt him. All that said as I have already stated, there is likely a name or 2 or 3 out there that could change his mind, Alexei is just not that name! JJ for Alexie? I could see that.
For example, Names rumored to be on the trade market in the last year or so I could see FW changing his mind and trading one of those young arms for:
Justin Upton
Felix Hernandez
Not saying any of these guys will be Braves. But notice they are young vets.Alexie is in his mid Prime as most baseball experts would say prime is 28-32 or some would say 27-33. Either way he’s right in the middle of that. If they could get a guy yet to reach his prime, I think FW would change his mind.
I'm not doubting him
I’m saying he’s a shrewd GM, and isn’t obliged to put all his cards on the table. We saw that even last year, when we were “really interested” in Pence but were actually gearing up for a play on Bourn.
I’m not arguing anything about Alexei, so stop telling me about how we shouldn’t trade pitching for him. :P
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Even in the Bourn deal, we wouldn't give up Delgado.
My point is it’s going to take a big star to get FW to move Delgado. If you are not arguing for Alexei and we agree that it will take a big star to get FW to move Delgado, what are you arguing?
I may have gotten you confused with the other guy and maybe your comment was just not to rule out every trading one of the big 4 as they have been called. To that, I have not ruled it out. Just ruled it out in the case of Alexei.
Bourn is only under team control for 1 more year
Ramirez is under team control for 4 more years. You do get the concept that 4 is much larger than 1, correct? Its going to cost more to get a similarly valuable player that’s a similarly good value contract wise, for a much longer period of time.
No do you don't get the concept.
H ewouldn’t give him up for Pence either! Stop cherry pickicng the argument and trying to make it work in your mind. Simple fact is he wouldn’t give him up for better players in a play-off race, when the pressure to do something was on. Why give him up in the off-season, when there are other options? You guys are acting as if it’s Alexei or bust. It is not!
You are simply fighting the facts to make your trade look doable. I get it you guys like him a lot, I do to! But this trade is just out of line with everything FW has said and done in the past 2 years. So stop getting angry and trying to be a smart azz, this is a debate. I don’t get the concept? Clearly you don’t get the concept of what FW is trying to do.
Pence was only under team control for 2 years as is very expensive
Again, Alexei is under team control for 4 years and is quite cheap for what he provides. I don’t think I’ve ever said that Wren would definitely make the deal, I simply said I’d do it in a heart beat and that people have gotten way too high on Delgado based solely on his 35 good (on the surface) MLB innings while completely ignoring the fact that he struggled in AA and AAA and has dropped in prospect rankings.
1) There where fans on here and it was the majority, yelling to trade one of the big 4 for Bourn. Go back and check. Pence was also cheap and what we needed, a right handed OF bat. You don’t want to hear that we have other options without giving up Delgado.
2) Once again you don’t know that Delgado has droped, the ratings are not out yet, so that’s just B.S. Struggled accoarding to whom? I have not heard one scout say that. Try watching the guys play and not just look at numbers from an arm chair.
3) I don’t even know how or why you are debating this. Pitching well at the MLB level helps your stock!
Pence isn't cheap, that's why Houston threw 2 MM in the trade
1) I was a part of all those discussions. People got restless because they saw the Phillies make a move for Pence while we seemed to sit idly by. I believe I said at the time I would consider moving Delgado in a 1 for 1 deal, but I didn’t think it was necessary. I haven’t said once in this thread that we can’t get Ramirez without giving up Delgado. I’ve simply said I’d be more than willing to deal him in order to get Alexei.
2) He dropped on the mid-season rankings from both BA and KLaw despite the fact that numerous prospects that had ranked in front of him graduated. And they weren’t just dropping him because of his numbers. Clearly scouts were not blown away by what they saw. He then didn’t pitch better in the second half than he did in the first. I have watched the guy. He clearly struggles with command. He had trouble not just missing his spots, but missing them very badly.
3) I like how I get accused of looking at numbers from an arm chair while you argue he did well in the majors based solely on ERA. He barely struck anyone out and had a problem giving up HR. His numbers look good because he lucked into a .220 BABIP, but considering he hasn’t shown in the past that he’s a low BABIP pitcher (he posted a .312 this year at AA) there is no reason to think that’s at all sustainable. Now I’m not trying to say his MLB performance hurt him, but people raren’t going to go crazy either way over just 35 IP. I’m not sure why you think those 35 innings somehow outweigh the ~140 innings he threw in the minors this year.
1) If ALexei is cheap with the numbers he puts up, how is Pence not cheap with the numbers he put up? Come on man it’s not just about being restless, some just don’t value prospects at all and that’s what it comes down to.. There where even a few trade Teheran calls. It’s not just about Delgado for Alexei, it’s that there are other options beside Alexei. If the White Sox actually put him on the block, I seriously doubt FW would even entertain the idea of trading Degado in that package.
2) That was before the way he ended the season.
3) LOL…… I never said just ERA. Not once that’s you that keeps bringing that up. Truth is he didn’t get rocked by the pressure is the biggest thing to me. Poise is so improtant for an MLB pitcher and he had it. And for a guy wh’s control you worry about, 2 walks per start isn’t that bad.
Also….. I’m not against the idea of bringing Alexei in. To be honest, I’m for it. Just not at the cost some are willing to pay. JJ for Alexei? I’d do it. The money will make sense. Delgado for Alexei? I wouldn’t do. I think Delgado can be a #2 pitcher in the next few years and it doesn’t make sense mony wise, we would have to make another move.
Trade JJ for a prospect (hitter?) to make money work
The White Sox wouldn’t even consider dealing Alexei unless it was to get cheaper and JJ doesn’t do that. Heck, they couldn’t even control him nearly as long as they could control Ramirez (who actually has a team option for a 5th year, compared to 2 years for JJ).
As for Delgado, everything I’ve read about him pegs a #2 starter as his ceiling. Command is really a big deal if you want to get up into the #2 or #1 level, and like I mentioned its something Delgado struggles with.
But that is requiring a 2nd move!
If the Braves are to trade Delgado, I seriously doubt they’d trade JJ in the same off-season. And the rumor about CWS going cheap is hard to believe for me. They are a big market team. And I can see JJ being very willing to sign an ext, because he’s a contact pitcher.
I do think he will reach number 2 status and I don’t think his controll is as bad as some say.
I’ll say this again if the Braves want a SS from the CWS, my money would be on prospect Eduardo Escobar. Labled as special with the glove, cheap, and years of control left.
Again, its command, not control
And not sure what’s up with your love of Eduardo Escobar. The kid can’t hit at all. His glove may be great, but he doesn’t even for a SS, he doesn’t have a good enough bat to start in the majors. Offensively, he was only 77% as good as the average International League player last year. He was literally the 12th worst qualifying player offensively in the IL last year. There’s a reason he didn’t even manage to crack the list for the top 20 prospects in the International League this year. Honestly, you’re the first person I’ve ever even heard bring his name up and I follow prospect pretty closely.
Never said I loved the kid!
The simple truth is, a trade for him and a few specs for JJ is more likely than the Braves giving up Delgado for Alexei. Stop putting words in my mouth. If you don’t have a point, don’t lie to create one.
What's the point?
Escobar would slot in behind Pastornicky and Simmons (at least) on our organizations SS depth chart. Considering Pastornicky should start in AAA and Simmons will be in AA, that wouldn’t even leave him with a spot to play SS regularly. He’d be more of a throw in in a JJ trade than anything else.
From all the scouting reports I have read, he is MLB ready. If he’s the bridge to Simmons, so beit. We’d also get more than just him.
Just saying if the reports about the kid that I have read are correct, I could see this deal happening before and Alexei deal. If the reports you have are correct, we can look elsewhere.
What reports are you talking about?
The kid couldn’t even come close to holding his own in AAA. He was literally one of the worst hitters at that level. What in the world would make you think he’s MLB ready?
Let's put it this way on Eduardo Escobar
John Sickels felt the C+ grade he gave him coming into the season was too generous after seeing his performance this year. This isn’t a player who should ever be starting for a contending team unless something changes drastically over the next few years.
Not the scouting report I read....
But this goes in on my point. If he’s not MLB starter qaulity, there is no way the CWS will trade Alexei.
What does that have to do with your point?
You’ve argued I’m wrong for saying I would give up Delgado for Ramirez. Whether or not the CWS would be willing to do the deal has no relevance to that discussion.
My point is......
Your trade doesn’t have any good chance of happening. And if you are saying their spec isn’t ready to step in, then who do they play at SS? Now it has no chance at happening!
Go back to my early post and even my recent ones, It’s not strictley about Delgado.
Don't care what you discussed with others
I’ve stated that I would trade Delgado for Ramirez and tried to make a case why FW’s refusal to move him for Pence and Bourn doesn’t have much relevance to this particular case. I’ve never once argued that its a deal that’s likely to happen. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the CWS and I don’t think they’d deal Ramirez 1 for 1 for a non-elite pitching prospect.
One last try
1) Pence is arbitration eligible the next 2 years and due for big raises. He’s going to make more the next 2 years than Ramirez will over the next 3. And once positional value and defense are taken into account, there similar players in terms of value. So yeah, Ramirez is cheaper.
2) Like I keep saying, he didn’t do better in the second half than he did in the first unless you’re basing your opinion solely on his MLB ERA. He posted a 4.85 ERA in AA in July and a 4.15 ERA in AAA in August.
3) The only things pretty about his MLB starts was his ERA. He posted very few strikeouts and had problems giving up HRs. Its great that his poise impressed you, but why can’t he stay poised in minor league games? Oh, and control and command are two entirely different things. If you actually followed prospects you would know that. Control is the ability to throw the ball over the plate when you want. Its much easier to have control than command, which is the ability to locate your pitches where you aim them. Delgado struggles mightily to hit the targets his C throws up there for him. That;s where I get the idea he struggles with command.
1) Dude i get that, ALexie has more years left and makes less money. But bang for buck Pence had more value. If your Alexei/Pence argument is strictly about the dollar amount, Alexei will not be cheap after the upcoming season, so I don’t know where you are coming from.
2) What he did in a play-off race in the bigs, matters a lot more than what he did in the minors. In the minors there all kinds of things that come into play when talking about a pitcher. Shotty defense behind them, not exactly the greatest umps, bad fields, the list goes on and on. Our very own Johnny Venters Minor’s stats leaves a lot to be desired, but he has been excellent in the pros. I didn’t here anything but posititve reports from Braves scouts about Delgado. And before you say something like they wouldn’t bad mouth their own spec, Think again. The reports for Perez are not glowing at all.
3) Read above. If I actaually follow? Haha that’s that B.S…….. If you followed you wouldn’t say half the things you say!
1) Pence doesn’t have more value. Not sure where you’re getting that. Yes, his offensive numbers are prettier, but he’s an average defender in a corner OF spot compared to an elite defender at SS. You’re really underrating Alexei. And Pence is about to get real expensive. He’s looking at ~10 million in arbitration this year and ~15 million next year.
2) Okay, but his underlying performance wasn’t even that good. I mean its cool he didn’t crap the bed or anything, but he showed that he has a problem striking out MLB hitters and has a problem giving up the long ball. The fact that his ERA looked pretty in the majors doesn’t make up for the minor league struggles.
And did you really just compare Delgado to Venters? Venters struggled in the minors as a starter and then found success in the majors when he moved to relief and figured out the grip for his sinker. He’s simply not similar any longer to the pitcher that struggled in the minors. It has very little to do with the defenses, umpires, fields, or any of that.
3) You don’t even know what the difference between control and command is. That alone tells me you don’t follow prospects that closely.
Bingo.
your comment was just not to rule out every trading one of the big 4 as they have been called.
Also, we didn’t need to give up one of the four for Bourn, and everybody involved in that deal knew it. If there’s somebody Wren wants – doesn’t even have to be an elite superstar – and the only way to do it would be to give up one of our pitchers, Wren could be happy to do that. Or he could not, and he could be telling the public exactly what’s on his mind – he doesn’t want to give up our young pitchers this year.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Read above about Bourn, #1. Guys around here most certainly wanted to give up one of our prized 4 to get him. I would say they would have to be younger than the name being thrown around. My point is, since he’s said that’s what he’s doesn’t want to do and everything he has done has backed that up, the speculating that he has something else in mind is just that. To your point it would have to be someone he liked, it would have to be someone he really, really liked! To my knowledge he turned down Minor for Ellsbury was the rumor in 2010. This year he turned down trading any of the big 4 for Beltran, Pence and Bourn. So he seems really determined not trade any of these guys.
Also through his breif time as GM, he’s been very transparent. SO when he says he’s not looking to do something, I believe him…… But as stated, there is likely a small group of players that could change his mind. I wouldn’t count the name mentioned as one of those that would.
I don't care what "guys around here said."
And I’m tired of repeating myself, which is all I’m doing, so this is the last time I’m saying this:
Wren is under no obligation to be totally truthful when dealing with the public, and we should approach every one of his public statements with the idea that he may be trying to influence his position on the trade market just as much as he’s trying to disseminate general information to the public.
If you want to take it on face value that we won’t trade one of our pitchers for anything short of a major coup, go ahead. Whatever. I’m just saying that Wren’s “I want to keep all of our pitchers” may be a calculated statement to increase their value, and it may not be a promise.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You are repeating yourself because you choose to.
I have already said in so many different ways I can and some what agree with you. But the simple truth is, he hasn’t mislead us with his public statements yet, so you saying that’s what he maybe doing is simply speculative. What about that can’t you understand. He’s not going to be turning down trading the guy for all-stars and then trade him for someone who doesn’t mesure up to those standards. That’s just common sense.
A very hot prospect with as high a ceiling as Delgado? I can see that. A young player with years of control left and a very high ceiling? I can see that. But he has set the bar, I don’t see what you are arguing..
So we have 7 names of guys you would take over Alexei
Let’s take a closer look at a few of them…
Jimmy Rollins – You’d seriously take him over Ramirez at this point? Rollins has a .255/.316/.403 line over the past 3 years, compared to a .276/.325/.407 line over the same time period for Alexei. Throw in the fact that Rollins has appeared somewhat injury prone over the past few years and I don’t think its particularly close.
Hanley Ramirez – He’s a heck of a hitter, but he’s a SS in name only. I’d take him over Alexei as a player, but I wouldn’t want him to play SS for the Braves, especially with our less than stellar defense at every other IF position.
Starlin Castro – Plays subpar defense at SS and when he is going to get moved off of the position is already a topic of discussion. Solid hitter but nothing special. Nowhere near the baserunner that Alexei is. For the Braves I’d certainly prefer Ramirez’s because of his glove.
Elvis Andrus – I guess if you believe he’s more in line with the numbers he posted last year there’s a good case to be made, but he was just not a good hitter the 2 years before that. Push comes to shove, I guess I’d take him over Ramirez for the next 4 years, but if we’re talking just next year give me Alexei.
So we’re down to 6 guys if we take Rollins off the list (and he shouldn’t be on it unless you just want to ignore the past 3 years), and two of those 6 aren’t even real SS from a defensive perspective. I’m certainly willing to listen on Ramirez not being top 5, but he’s certainly got a case. As for Wren saying he won’t trade pitching, well that’s just what GMs do. If you convince people you’re almost unwilling to certain assets, they know they have to give up more than they want to actually get you to consider changing your mind. I’m not sure if the White Sox would actually consider the deal, but I would trade any one prospect we have outside of Teheran for Ramirez.
by nixa37 on Oct 13, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
thank you for pointing out all that stuff, which is all true
I would take Tulo, Reyes, Escobar over him and Hanley, after that I’d be hard pressed.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Hanley has me worried, honestly
The defense is faltering fast, which could force a position switch even this offseason. I’m not sure what happened to his bat this year, but it wasn’t just a month-long drought that he bounced back from. The injury is one that could be a nagging issue and can definitely affect his swing, so I’d be very wary of acquiring him at this time.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 13, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I am on the fence because of all the things you’ve mentioned…obviously what is holding me back is the immense amount of talent he brings to the table. I know it has happened (look at Andruw to a lesser extent), but I cant imagine a guy as talented as he is will cease to be good after one season (man I remember saying that about Andruw and it hurts inside)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
LOL.......
Rollins- Has 43 more SB’s despite the missing time. The same amount of runs scored despite the missing time. ANd has only posted a higher slgg % in one of those 3 years. SO, so much for your misleading stats. Rollins age, yea, that’s a problem. But for right now, considering we wouldn’t have to give up one of our prized pitchers to get him, yes Rollins over Alexei.
Hanley- Is hands down better, no need to even debate it.
Castro- – Much better hitter than Alexei. His defense is debateable. But do to his age and salary. Yes Castro over Alexei.
Elvis- Again, no need to debate it. Hands down better, once you add in Salary and age/
You typed all this and my point still stands! Alexei is not elite no matter how much you or I like him. He’s just not man and you have not made one point that he is.
runs scored are meanignless, they are completely dependant on the players battign behind the player.
it is certainly debatable whether Castro and Elvis are better than Alexei. Castro’s defense really isn’t debatable, most agree its not up to par for the position. Elvis’s hitting skills are questionable although he had a very good 2011 and if he can repeat that then he will be above Alexei.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
So not true......
Runs scored has a lot to do with the players base running. Yes the guy’s behind him have something to do with it. But calling it meaningless is a direct slap in the face of every good lead-off hitter that has ever played. You should retract that statement, no penalty!
Man you just don’t want to let go of it. You wouldn’t take Alexei over those guys either, if you would I’m glad you are not the GM. Options out there to give up a possible stud pitcher at the begining of the season. If Alexie was 24/25, I’d sit on the fence on this one. But he’s not he’s 30. All Braves complain about us never having any money to spend in FA, this is why! We crowd the Books before we get to the year we’ll have money………….. All this is besides the point though. He is not elite and this trade is not happening! There is no reason for the Braves to do this. They could get a younger, cheaper, SS with more upside if they decide to trade Delgado.
If you actually look at the numbers, Alexei is a better pure baserunner
Go check out baserunning runs above average. Ramirez checks in at 10.9 runs above average over the past 3 years compared to just 4.2 runs above average for Rollins.
As for the runs scored, Rollins bats leadoff, so despite the fact that he’s missed a bunch of games, he only has 166 fewer PA over the past 3 years. And since you want to bring up completely context dependent stats, Ramirez has 27 more RBI over the past 3 years.
Alexei is not a better base runner than Rollins. I can’t even believe youtyped that. As I have already said stats can be misleading. 9th inning down one run, who would youwant on 1B with the 2nd and 3rd empty, Rollins or Alexei? The better base runner, Rollins!
Rollins is also a switch hitter, who can bat 1-8 in and has dne so. Making him a more versitile hitter. He also has WS and a lot play-off exp.. He has hit and played in the N.L., Alexei has not! And with all the hitters that fail when they switch A.L. to N.L., I’d rather stay on the safe side. The Biggest reason is you get Rollins for just money, without giving up a stud like Delgado
For the record……. I don’t think Rollins is elite at this point in his career either, but he was at one point. But I would take him over Alexie.Can we please drop calling Alexei elite and then we can agree to dissagree?
Um
Just FYI, baserunner and base stealer have nothing to do with each other. Cristian Guzman was the best baserunner that I ever saw live, but he was a horrible base stealer. Luis Castillo is one that was a great base stealer, but a horrid base runner. Rollins is not a great base runner, but he’s not horrible. What I’ve seen of Ramirez in person and on television is a fantastic base runner. He has incredibly deceptive speed and picks great running angles on the bases. His biggest weakness is his initial jump, which is why he’s likely not an excellent base stealer.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 13, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
If he was the best you saw, you didn’t watch a lot of baseball. You are forgetting a guy by the name of Rickey Henderson! And yes they do have alot to do with each other, saying they don’t is simply not true. There are a few guys that excell at base running and don’t steal bases, but saying they have nothing to do with one another? Come on man. I’ve seen Rollins on the pads and I’ve seen Alexei, Rollins in better IMHO!
Chipper is a great base-runner – but a terrible base stealer.
McCann is a fantastic base stealer, but a terrible base-runner.
One /=/ The Other
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
you just completely missed his whole point by even bringing up Ricky Henderson.
I love Ricky almost as much as Ricky loves Ricky, but the argument is baserunner, not base stealer, although Ricky probably doesnt win either argument ( Tim Raines was a better base stealer and I will fight anyone to the death in this argument).
there is a significant difference between the two. for example. Chipper is a great baserunner but not a great basestealer. he is a great baserunner because he know when to take ht base and when not to. he isnt a good base stealer bc he is 39 and his knees are 54.
Cristian Guzman was a very good baserunner in the first regard, not the base stealing regard. if you can’t understand this concept then you mind as well move on from this argument, bc you are missing the point
And damnit why is spell check telling me i don’t know how to spell “baserunner”.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Stoped reading after you said there was a better base stealer than Rickey Henderson!
I guess we should fight now!!!! JK…….. But really I can’t even debate you after saying something so far out in LF.
Rickey was tremendous, but he aged much better than most base stealers. At their peaks, I’d rather have had Raines or even Vince Coleman of guys I saw in my lifetime. Rickey was completely turned loose on a crap team for a long time, and it was obvious when he ended up on a good team, his stats went way down compared to his hey day.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 13, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Tim raines, for his career, including his decline, stole bases at a 85% mark… which is ridiculous considering the amount he ran, generally your percentage falls as your chances increase (Catchers are more prepared for you to run and pitchers hold you closer). Henderson was great and I think was a better player than Raines, as Henderson had the best pitch recognition and strike zone judgment of any player to have carry a bat to the plate.
to SB75, I suggest you stop talking for a while and read a bit more, you clearly do not understand some of the finer points of baseball and you have a great deal to learn. You are convinced pretty Runs an RBI numbers are indicative of skill, you believe an ERA is a good way to value a pitchers performance, additionally you don’t understand that SBs are great but CS is considerably worse than a the amount of good a SB does (the general rule is if you aren’t stealing at a 80% rate you are hurting your team). This SB point is important to remember because everytime you get caught your team loses an out, outs a finite and the most precious asset a team has. the percentages say that the odds of scoring a run are not increased dramatically by stealing second base (and are barely increased at all in taking third), depending on the number of outs.
There are a lot of knowledgeable people on this website (myself excluded), and instead of arguing points that are generally accepted as no longer valid, you could learn a great deal, but reading. I mean no offense by any of this, just trying to inform you of the error of your ways so that you can learn from your mistakes.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I was done......
But the idiot had to speak!
1) Rains was not a better base stealer than Rickey. Everyone knew Rickey was going to run and he still stole the most bases in history. The Best periode no one with credible base ball knowledge would say diffrently. And as you stated your percentage should go down the more you run. Rickey ran at will and you could not stop him.
2) Never said anything about pretty runs or RBI’s, Just another dumb statement by you because you don’t have a point. If you truely dissagree with what I type. Dissagree with what I type and stop making shyt up and putting words in my mouth. Geta a life dude, you’re acting like a woman!
The same amount of runs scored despite the missing time
this indicates your beleif that runs scored are a meaningful way to determine player value.
You are completely correct you didn’t mention RBIs, and I inappropriately attributed that to you.
Raines is 5th all time in stolen bases, so its not like the guy didn’t run, he didn’t run as much as Ricky. He stole 70 plus bases 4 seasons in a row, which means he ran a lot. Raines picked his spots better and didnt run into outs. Raines most stolen bases were at an 86% success rate, Henderson’s best was at like a 73% rate, meaning Henderson continually ran into outs that ended outs early.
There are at least two people who think Henderson isn’t the best base stealer of all time, me and Ben, I bet there are more than that, although certainly the majority would pick Henderson (which isn’t necessarily right or wrong, just difference of opinion and I’m ok with that).
please stop insulting me, it makes you look worse. I have not insulted you, Also stop being a Misogynist insinuating that being a woman is some kind of insult. Also, I would like to point out that I have a very full life. My mom brings me dinner in my basement apartment and I have tons of friends on the internet here at TC and myspace, also I have tons of friends on the PSN we play games together.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Henderson was the most prolific base stealer
but definitely not the best.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I was gonna say Coleman, but when looking at the stats, I didn’t think he was markedly better than Coleman, especially considering how good Henderson was later in his career (early he was just ridiculously fast and had an amazing first step, later he really learned to steal bases evidence by his 66/79 steal season at age 39 or whatever it was.
It is an absolute disgrace if Tim Raines doesnt end up in the HOF.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Coleman simply got some of the best jumps of anyone I’ve ever seen. He just aged terribly.
I agree with you about Raines. I cannot believe he has not been elected.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 14, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
biggentleben...
Maybe you and I can keep the debate about who we think is better without the side show. I really don’t like it when people try to say what I like or think without me typing it…… That’s just B.S>
I’ll give it to you that Rickey played on some bad teams and I do agree that effects stats. But no team wants to let a guy reach that 100 SB mark, no matter how bad the team is. You don’t want a guy setting records on you. He was 80 for 90 on a good Yanks team in 85. And you should run less on a team that doesn’t have as many problems scoring runs.
Every so called expert I have ever heard has said Rickey was the best base stealer in history and I side with them. Personal prefrence? Hey I can’t change your mind about that and I wouldn’t try. But I would like a little more info on why you think Tim is better. And in all fairness Rains did have his best years with the Expos, they weren’t exactly on top of the world as a team either.
What’s interesting is the style of play in the leagues at the time, really. The AL in the 1980s wasn’t Oakland A’s Moneyball walk-walk-HR offense, but it was generally much more hit-driven baseball, which made the steal much more used in the AL for advancing a runner. Folks remember the Cardinals as stealing at will, but that’s really not the case. They ran at will, and the NL style at the time was a lot of hit and run and moving runners with bunting, which made a straight steal fairly inefficient in the NL. That all made Raines even more amazing.
Henderson was willing to steal no matter what, and he often did so against the needs of his team. There was a study once about making the second or third out at third base, and Rickey did it far more than anyone in history. He wasn’t a smart basestealer, he just did it so much that his final numbers overwhelmed you. That’s where many of the eyes of the time come away saying, “Well of course Rickey was the best, just look at the numbers!”
I remember watching a game with Raines where Gary Carter was catching for the Mets. Normally Carter did a very good job of shutting down an opponent’s run game, but in this game he got hit by a wrap-around swing or something on his throwing arm, and you could tell on his throws back to the mound that he wasn’t 100%. Raines got to first, and he danced all day long off first, drawing throw after throw, and the batter walked. He then did the same thing off second, drawing throw after throw, and eventually (as I remember it), he moved his way around the bases and someone like Tim Wallach or Vance Law tattooed a pitch because Carter kept calling fastball after fastball to keep Raines at bay and the pitcher was so distracted he finally left one up. Raines could have probably stolen second and third, and a sac fly would have scored him. Instead, he ended up being the cause of the pitcher giving up a three-run homer, if I remember correctly. He gave his team two extra runs by knowing when to run. He had multiple managers who were asked if they gave signs for him to run, and they said they never needed to. He knew when to and not to go. I’ve heard everyone but LaRussa throw Rickey under the bus for the exact opposite. He could be given the stop sign because of something the team planned on doing at the plate, and he’d go. His bravado actually hurt his team on the basepaths at times, and that’s why I’d definitely choose Raines over Rickey.
Coleman is a lot closer, but part of why he was remarkable was his ability to top triple digits even in the Cards’ bunt- and hit-and-run strategy. Typically there was a play in motion for the runner, so he had to have a great jump in order to steal a base as a batter was usually hitting behind him. Coleman was one who also stole often when his team wasn’t the beneficiary.
I will say that those who saw them both said Rickey couldn’t even hold Lou Brock’s jock and Maury Wills was just in another stratosphere in his ability to read pitchers, but he was often given the red light so as to not create outs. The steal is a very inefficient way to advance runners as base stealing in general is only about 60-75% successful league-wide in a given year. A hit-and-run moves the runner to an EXTRA base (first to third) at about the same rate, which makes base stealing fairly silly to do at a high rate unless you are an elite base stealer.
Rickey was able to keep doing it until very late in his career, and no one will touch his record, so he is the all time greatest steals leader. However, that does not mean you were the best at doing that task.
Base running, however, is not base stealing. Cristian Guzman had fairly average speed, yet he hit 54 triples in a four year span from 2000-2003. He did the absolute perfect job of arcing his path around the bases to touch just barely enough of the base to not be out or alter his speed. He was easily the best base runner I’ve seen live, and most that saw him leg out a triple or go from first to home on a deep single in the Metrodome saw the difference in his base running and even guys with above average speed without his skills.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 14, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you should do a little less typing, and a lot more reading of intelligent people’s posts.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 14, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I will agree to not call Alexei Ramirez elite if you agree to not call Henry VIII a former monarch.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure you understand what agree to disagree means, it does not mean that the other side admits they are wrong.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
With all due respect…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 14, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL...see I can do it too
Rollins – So you’re seriously grading players on SBs and runs scored? Not really sure what’s misleading about the numbers either. Ramirez has posted better numbers over the past 3 years. That’s all I claimed and the numbers back it up.
Hanley – I agreed he’s a better player. So is Jose Bautista. Doesn’t mean he should be playing SS.
Castro – We were talking about the best SS in baseball, not the most valuable, so what relevance do age and salary have in this discussion? And again, he shouldn’t be playing SS in the first place. His defense just isn’t that good.
Elvis – You’re trying to switch the discussion again. Being an elite SS has nothing to do with age and salary. Like I said, there is definitely a strong argument for Elvis either way.
Rollins- Simply put more versatility. The numbers are not all in Alexei’s favor and that’s my point. The numbers back me up. And for team like ours that has problems scoring runs, SB’s are very important, So is bunting, fly balls, and manufacturing runs.
Hanley_ No one had a problem with his defense before this year. He’s not as horrid as you pretend and when healthy his numbers at the plate and on the pads totally kills Alexei’s. Comparing him to Bautista at SS, Is simply a destraction from the truth by you sir.
Castro- Have you ever seen him play? Prima donna? Yes. Lack of concentration? Yes. Immature? Yes. Hot dog? Yes Sounds a lot like Esco. Horrible defensively? NO. Watch the kid play and stop relying on what the metrics or war says.
Elvis_ are you really debating this? I’m not switching anything. These are all guys I’d take over him for a lot of reasons. I’m not the one trying to make Alexei elite when he’s not.
I stand by what i said, I’ll take all these guys over him, so there’s no way he’s elite, no matter what WAR will lead you to think. Baseball is played on the field, not on stats.
This is eerily reminiscent of a certain post made a couple of years ago that compared the Brave’s players to the Mets’.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
How much less could you care?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 13, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Well he did kind of prove himself right
If he cared less I don’t think he would have spent so much time arguing
"I operate under the assumption that most GMs are not total idiots (that does not preclude partial idiocy)."
We are talking about the guy who considered Konerko for Player/Manager before settling on the inexperienced Ventura.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
LOL....
Ventura ( from his playing days) was a Vet lover. So if he has any pull it won’t even be considered. I don’t think the CWS GM is an idiot, I do think he tries very hard to think outside the box. It worked with the hire of Ozzie ( who else was going to give that loud mouth, but effective manager a shot) for a short time, will it work with Robbin? I don’t know. But one thing is for sure about the CWS GM, he’s not affraid to pull the trigger.
i said partial idiocy is not precluded, Kenny Williams has made some good moves in the past, although looking at their current roster I can’t seem to think of any (Rios- no, Dunn- no,) he kept Konerko so that was smart.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Funny a lot of Braves fans over on Prosports wanted Dunn, I was dead set against it. But at the time< I didn’t view it has horrible for the CWS because he’d be the DH. No one could have seen him sucking this bad. Not even me and I wanted no parts of him with the Braves. Rios had a good year in 2010 and sucked in 2011…….. This maybe just a case ( as in Boston) of players just tuning out the manager.
Rios’sis only good in even years, its a rule that has been followed pretty religously. Dunn was clearly a victim of bodysnatchers.
it all is easily explainable.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Peavy-no
Juan Pierre-no.
Bobby Jenks, another no.
He piles up a lot of no’s Swo.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 14, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
he won a WS, he must have done something positive…right? ….right? i am just trying to convince myself at this point
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
he traded Freddy Garcia for Gio Gonzalez and gavin Floyd….that was a good one.
traded Chris Carter fro Carlos Quinton ( I am counting that as a win)
he picked up Bobby Jenks off waivers from the Angels ( so it cost virtually nothing, and he was a very good closer for a couple of years)
he signed Jermaine Dye twice to very good contracts both times (first was 2 years for 10M and the second for 2 years and 20M, but he outperformed both contracts I believe)
he kept signing Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko and that worked.
I really had to work to find this, so just let me be right please.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
victory!!!!
hey justin, i beat him
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
What can I say...
I’ve spent the last 72 hours at a hospital with a wife and newborn boy. I’m exhausted.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 15, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Congrats!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 16, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
So close, so close to being my birthday buddy! Congrats to you and your wife!
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Oct 16, 2011 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
congratulations good sir, and most importantly….good luck
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
what is Mr. Sanchez Jr’s name… (besides the obvious “Mr. Sanchez Jr.”)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I think it’s obvious – he named him Justin!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 17, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
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