2011 Atlanta Braves Player Reviews: Jose Constanza and Matt Diaz
by SCrebel10 on Oct 27, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
Email
Print
Building off of Jacob's review of Jason Heyward, it's time to talk about Jose Constanza and Matt Diaz, who both took playing time away from Heyward during the season.
Neither player of course started the year with the Braves. Constanza was called up in late July after Nate McLouth injured his oblique and was put on the disabled list. Our old friend Diaz signed a two-year, $4.25 million deal with Pittsburgh this past off-season, but was traded to Atlanta on the last day trades could be made on August 31st.
Let's take a look at what both did for Atlanta and what the future holds for them.
Jose Constanza
The 28-year old career minor leaguer finally got a chance to play in the major leagues, and made a big impression for about his first two weeks in Atlanta. From July 29th when he made his major league debut to August 15th, Constanza was on fire and was a constant in the lineup at Jason Heyward's expense.
A speedy slap-hitter who hit all of six home runs in seven minor league seasons, Constanza hit two home runs in his first 16 major league games. In those 16 games, he put up a ridiculous line of .414/.452/.569/1.021 with five steals. That line was helped out thanks to an also ridiculous .431 BABIP.
During that two week period, he was an incredibly fun player to watch and provided a boost to the Braves lineup.
However, after August 15th, Constanza crashed back down to earth as was expected. From August 16th to his last start on September 6th, he posted a line of .205/.239/.205/.444 but still earned 12 starts during this time. It's safe to say that Fredi Gonzalez stuck with Constanza too long after it was obvious he wasn't performing well.
Once he did cool down and was finally taken out of the lineup, Constanza wasn't used much at all down the stretch. Some Braves fans have complained about this, but Constanza failed to record a hit after September 5th and his batting average tumbled from .414 to .303 in the span of August 15th to the end of the season. When balls stopped finding holes, his great speed was useless. He recorded only six walks in 109 plate appearances.
Constanza finished with a line of .303/.339/.385/.724 and a fWAR of 0.8 for the season.
Going forward, I don't see Constanza as anything more than a 5th outfielder at the major league level, and he certainly isn't a starting major league outfielder.
Matt Diaz
A fan favorite in Atlanta, Matt Diaz made his return in a trade with the Pirates as the Braves sought to improve their bench for the stretch run. Diaz is well known for his ability to hit left-handed pitching, something Atlanta struggled with in 2011. He possess a career line of .328/.367/.506 against lefties, which is fantastic.
Unfortunately for Diaz, he suffered a power outage in 2011. After hitting seven home runs in 244 PA's in 2010, Diaz failed to hit a single home run in 268 PA's in 2011. His isolated power dropped considerably as well, from .188 in 2010 to .060 this past season.
After arriving in Atlanta, Diaz was put into a platoon in right field with Heyward and started 10 games for the Braves down the stretch.
Some hoped that a change in scenery back to Atlanta would bring back his power, but that was not the case. Diaz recorded 10 hits as a Brave in 2011, with only one of them going for extra bases (a double).
He posted a line of .286/.297/.314/.612 in an Atlanta uniform this year. The average looks nice, but there's no secondary offensive value in that line.
Looking to 2012, Diaz is under contract for $2 million. How Atlanta views him will be very interesting, as that's a lot of money for a player who it seems has lost all of his power. Diaz is a nice piece to have on the bench because of his ability to hit left-handed pitching, but he needs some of his power to return to provide value.
117 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Good analysis
I certainly hope that Constanza isn’t on the major league team next season. The Braves need to make serious improvements on the bench and he is one of the weak links of the bench (along with Conrad and Wilson). I’m not sure what to think about Diaz. I think the Braves do keep him because the team is so lefty heavy. Hopefully he does regain some of his power.
Shame on Constanza...
for giving our team a spark and filling in at CF when Schafer and McLouth both got hurt. How dare he make it to the big club and post a .303/.339/.385/.724
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Be fair, now.
He wasn’t saying he didn’t appreciate what Constanza got away with did for the team during his hot streak, he’s just saying he hopes we get better options for our bench next year. I agree.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Why is everyone so concerned with how he did it? It’s like the guy is being made to apologize for how he gets what’s pretty much a decent leadoff-hitter split.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Because it's incredibly luck-based
and hence, not repeatable. Nobody’s saying he didn’t help us out, but we would be wise not to expect anything close to that out of him in the future for any decent amount of time.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Is a .333 BABIP truly a sign of “incredible” luck for a guy who gets as many IF hits as he does?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
When the infield hits are unsustainable as Jacob pointed out below...
Yes
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 27, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering Brett Gardner has also greatly outperformed the league BABIP for his career may I argue that there may be some skill involved (namely speed) that would allow you to do that?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
The rate at which Constanza got infield hits is unsustainable.
As Jacob pointed out below, Constanza got an infield hit in 12.6% of his PA. His IFH% (infield hits/ground balls) was 24.6%. The highest mark among qualified hitters this year was Cameron Maybin’s 14.2%.
Yes, speed can and does influence your BABIP. Constanza still got lucky.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 27, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
"Unsustainable"
That has to be the Word Of The Century.
"You owe it to yourself to be successful. After that you'll owe it to the IRS."
No idea
How that posted twice…only hit “Post” once!
"You owe it to yourself to be successful. After that you'll owe it to the IRS."
The .431 he had during the hot streak everyone remembers
is pretty ridiculously incredible, yes.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
"Ridiculously incredible"...as are most hot streaks...
I find it funny that when we look at JC’s year, we almost want to define him by the .431 BABIP that was ridiculous luck, or the .231 BABIP that was him craching back to Earth…and not the .333 BABIP which is what he actually accomplished.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Because we didn't have enough time to actually evaluate him.
A lot of people want him to start because of the .431, and everybody else is pointing at the .231 as a caution that we can’t expect him to be that good, and don’t have any idea how good he could be. Based on his minor league numbers, we shouldn’t expect a lot from him at the majors.
And a lot of hot streaks have less to do with luck, I’d wager. Getting to base almost every other time you put the ball in play, when you’re a slap hitter (it’d be different if he hit a lot of line drives) is just ridiculous. It’s beyond “most hot streaks,” in my opinion.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
He is a slap hitter and has consistently done fairly well as a slap hitter:
2008 (AA) .278 .334 .349 .683
2009 (AA) .282 .378 .342 .719
2010 (AAA) .319 .373 .394 .766
2011 (AAA) .312 .361 .351 .712
Add speed off the bench and decent defense at each OF position, and I think he is 50/50 to make the 25 man roster out of spring training, at least based on the 40 man and other options in the system as of today.
Obviously, however, we should be searching for better options.
^^
He wouldn’t be horrible for us off the bench or anything, but we should really be looking for something better.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Exactly
If we get a better option, that’s great. If not, Constanza can play all 3 OF positions.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
"filling in at CF"?
he had all of 3 starts in center.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 27, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Constanza was misused after those first two weeks. Whit his game of slap hits, infield singles and bunts, he needs to be in a lead off type position and Frediot didn’t do that – even batting him 2nd for a string of games. Constanza isn’t going to drive in runs, he’s a table setter and he has the tools to be a very good one. I hope the Braves coaches are working with him this winter to improve those skills.
- ChillyMutt
Is our bench good enough for 2012?
Since Diaz, Ross, and Hinske still under contract, that pretty much leaves 2 available bench slots available for 2012 doesn’t it? One has to be a backup middle-IF (Conrad or Pastornicky) and the last one is up for grabs between Constanza and whoever they bring in during the offseason.
Then again, it really hurts nothing to start Constanza in Gwinnett again this year. And Pastornicky might need more AAA PAs.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
I don't think
anybody is of the opinion that Pastornicky is going to be ML ready just yet in April.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
^^
Only way he makes the squad out of the gate is as our starting SS, which I don’t see happening.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
The key to Constanza's hot start
was that his balls weren’t even finding that many holes… they were finding infielders who just couldn’t make the play. He had 15 infield hits in his brief time in Atlanta, which is the same as Carl Crawford had all year and more than Jonny Damon or Nyjer Morgan had. Obviously, Jose’s speed helped him, but nobody gets IF hits at that rate without extreme amounts of luck. (The other guys I listed are pretty fast themselves.)
Of the 15 guys who got 30+ IF hits this year, the highest rate was Brett Gardner, who got one in 7.5% of his PAs. Constanza was at 12.6%. Around half of them were luck. Take 7 of those hits away and his overall line looks like this: .239 / .278 / .321. That’s… not so good.
As for Diaz, I think he’s done. He had a nice run, but I just don’t see the skills that he used to have. With his horrible approach, he’s so dependent on being able to make good contact on out-of-zone pitches, and I just don’t think he can do that anymore. I love Matty, and it’s sad to see him decline, but it was inevitable, I suppose.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Oct 27, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
ehhh
I don’t think Diaz is done, he still overall this year hit lefties pretty good. He should just be a lefty specialist off of the bench. I think he is done against righties, don’t think he can hit them anymore at all. Diaz is still valuable off the bench for 1 more year as long as Fredi uses him in the right situations…
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
I don't see him on our bench
he’s a right handed duplicate of Hinske, and having both means we need a backup SS and backup CF with the two remaining bench spots alongside those two and Ross. Having Diaz is too restrictive of other needs, and he’s just not worth it anymore imo. If the Pirates sent cash with him, I’d assume it was enough to cover this year’s buyout.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 27, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t necessarily say we would keep him. I just said I don’t think overall he is done, like Jacob thinks. But, if we did keep him, I think he would be a valuable lefty specialist off of the bench as long as Fredi used him right. I don’t care if Diaz is back or not to be honest with you.
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
Are you kidding?
That’s because Constanza makes things happen. There’s no luck involved in that. /Fredi
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 27, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Vroomvroom
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Jose Constanza truly turned into George Constanza
Good observation on the “luck” factor concerning his infield hits. I just figured Jose’s decline was a case of the pitchers finally adjusting to the new guy & him not making readjustments to counteract.
Anyway, he was a good story for 2011. All those years in the minors. I’m glad he got his cup of coffee.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
Mauro Gomez
I know Mauro Gomez will never be a useful starter, but I’ve always wondered why teams sign bench players for $1.5-$2M when they have serviceable guys in the minors for league minimum.
Gomez hit 304/356/522 @Gwinett. Surely it’s not worth an extra $900,000 to keep Hinske around instead of calling up Gomez. Although Gomez is a righty and may not be as great a pinch-hitting option, he could spell Freeman against tough lefties to retain the platoon advantage.
Most guys like that stay in the minors for things other than statistics.
That is, there’s legitimate reasons they’re AAA players that scouts can identify.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 27, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I personally viewed the trade for Diaz as a win now by getting a potentially decent RH bat move. He didn’t, however, get the job done and going into the 2012 season, will be 34 yrs old and four yrs removed from putting up an .800 OPS. Sad to say, but IMO he is unlikely to substantially contribute to our success. I think he is released or sent to AAA in the spring.
Constanza, on the other hand, has a bit more value in that he can at least provide speed off the bench and decent defense at each OF position. I think he is 50/50 to make the opening day roster.
Castanza’s start and fall reminded me of Willie Harris.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
Oh no
HE’S DESTINED TO BE A BRAVES KILLER.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I guess I see the similarities, Harris wasn’t a career minor leaguer though, he had quite a bit of MLB experience under his belt before he joined the Braves organization, including a couple of solid seasons with the White Sox.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Harris has remained a rather useful bench player though.
He’s had a strong walk rate, decent pop, and the ability to play both the OF and 2B.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 27, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If Prado goes back to his utility role, I don't see Diaz making the team
Lets just say the Braves add a RH LF (Willingham or Quentin), Prado will be the super utility guy. Assuming Hinske is back, that gives you 3 guys we know will be on the bench:
C David Ross, 1B/OF Eric Hinske, UT Martin Prado
That leaves 2 spots. One needs to be an infielder capable of playing SS if Gonzo/Pastornicky/FA is injured. You can scratch off Conrad. He won’t be with the team. That leaves Brandon Hicks, Diory Hernandez, or a FA to be the utility infielder.
The next spot will be an OF capable all 3 spots. Diaz cannot do that. Constanza and Richardson can. They will come to spring with a chance to win that spot. I imagine the Braves will bring in 1 or 2 minor league contract type guys to also challenge for it. Possibly a Dewayne Wise or Gregor Blanco type.
At this point I think Constanza has a much better shot at being with the 2012 Braves and I think they will try to trade Diaz if they pick up a good LF.
Breaking Story:
Martin Prado will not be in a “super utility” role next season.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Frank Wren: Martin, we’re going to move you to a Super Utility role next year. You’ll back up Chipper, Uggs, and our new LFer.
Martin Prado: mmmm kkkkkk….Does this mean that the Front Office thinks I’m not that good of a player?
Frank Wren: Of course not, Martin. We just think you’ll perform better in this role than you have as a starter.
Martin Prado: So let me get this straight. The team will perform better if I get fewer at-bats next season?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Oct 27, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Happy that you didn’t miss the sarcasm…
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Oct 27, 2011 4:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why is this not green?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Frank Wren: Yes, because that will mean we have a real LFer in the lineup.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 28, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
We have a LFer in the lineup, for some reason he always positions himself at 2B, forcing our 2B to cover left field, it’s very confusing.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Interesting.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 28, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I was wondering where you'd been.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
What kind of stat line do you expect out of a LFer…and how much are you willing to pay to have it?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
In 2011
The best line from LF was: .332 .397 .597
The worst line from LF was: .245 .289 .419
Our LFer’s line was: .260 .302 .385
No, he wasn’t the worst, but he was closer to the bottom than the top.
Of the 20 LFers who qualified, 7 of them hit 25 or more HRs
11 hit 20 or more HRs and another hit 18
Ours hit 13.
Prado is best suited as a Super Utlity player. That’s what makes him valuable to this team. If he is slotted as a LFer, he loses a lot of that value.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 28, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
The 10th highest OPS in LF this season was .759 from Alfonso Soriano.
If Prado had hit to his career numbers he’d have easily been a top 10 LFer offensively this season.
Heck, just looking at WAR he was a top 10 LFer anyway.
Prado is obviously more valuable as a starting 2B or 3B, as a starting LFer he’s middle of the pack at worst. As a utility guy he’s going to be sitting on the bench and not playing most of the time while waiting for injuries or Fredi to bench Heyward, and thus not providing value.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Super Utility
He plays every day giving someone else a day off.
It’s a perfect situation for everyone.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 28, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me guess Justin...
You’re still not letting go of the fact that we basically ran someone off in 2009 who had 1 bad year, and gave Prado his position?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
I always find it amusing how I get accused of not getting over it by others who constantly bring it up.
Why can’t you accept the fact that Prado is most valuable as a super utitlity guy, and that we are a better team with a real LFer?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 28, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
What's a "real" LFer? A Lee/Quentin type who can square up the occasional inside fastball but play laughable D?
Because you are obviously lambasting a guy who had 1 bad year out of the 3+ he’s been on the team…and it faintly rings a bell to what happened to KJ.
Martin hasn’t been a utility player since 2009, and earned himself a starting position with how he performed in 2010. One bad year and WR take his ABs away…do we really want to go down this road with other underachieving Braves players?
What’s more laughable is for anyone to keep pushing this idea that a $5MM/yr player needs to get PT at-bats because we’re going to sign a $8MM-$12MM LFer we can’t afford.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Oct 29, 2011 12:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lamblasting?
I’m sorry if I consider a guy who had never played LF before this season not a real LFer.
I’m sorry if the fact that Prado can play every IF position except SS makes him a utility player.
You need to get off this white knight crusade with Prado. Nobody is talking bad about him. If you can’t handle the fact that he is what he is – a contact-hitting utility player – then I don’t know what to tell you.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 29, 2011 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think "Utility player" to describe a player like Prado...
is nothing more than a back-handed compliment. Of course since you were unaware of how often he played LF for his Venezualan winter team…the fact that “Justin never saw it” means he’s not legit when obviously people who’s job it is to evaluate him have.
His ISO is pretty much inline with league average, and if by now you don’t see the aggregate effect of having an Uggla at 2B and Prado at LF…where yes I understand the old conventional wisdom would have their positions reversed…then comparing Prado offensively to the very position where “if you can hit they will find you a position” most applies? The only word I can really think of is…
“Hater”
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
I know he played LF for his Venezuelan team.
And no, it’s not a “back-handed” compliment when I say that Prado is VERY valuable to our team as a Super Utility player.
However, since you, for some reason, think I hate Prado, you think you’ve caught me actually giving him props when I mean to demean him.
Jokes on you. Prado is a very good player. Just not a very good LFer.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 29, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously, any discussion about next year’s lineup has many variables. Can we trade Lowe? JJ? Where do we get a SS? How much do we spend on the bullpen? etc.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 29, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If it worked like that, maybe it’d provide value, but it’d be a pretty unusual situation all around and i have no confidence in Fredi to manage to get the best out of Prado and the other players (let’s face it, if Prado is on the bench for us, he’s going to end up taking a bunch of starts from Heyward the first time Jason goes through a cold streak)..
But then who are we going to get for LF we look like we’re up against the wall budget wise, if we can move Lowe and JJ to free up money, then wouldn’t we be better off just putting that cash toward an upgrade at SS?
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Absolutely
SS has to be priority #1.
However, if something presented itself in a way of a trade, I think we have to make the upgrade in LF. I wouldn’t turn down a trade because we have Prado to play LF.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 29, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
ok… it was a awful year for Prado in 2011, I believe everyone knows this. If we really want to, we could say Heyward was probably closer to the bottom than the top when compared with other RF’s. Prado isn’t a 20 homer guy anyway, his max in the future will likely be around 15-18 homers, maybe 20 if very lucky. I don’t see how you can give up on a guy after one year, when he produced in the past. You have never really cared much for Prado, and now this is your time to shine and be like “SEE, this is Prado, he is a utility player at best and that is it”, so live it up. I believe Prado will rebound and show his worth in 2012, so get your shots in now justin.
I don’t care if Constanza hit .500 with 30 HRs and 150 RBI in 3 weeks, benching Heyward was a stupid decision.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
Who’s giving up on him?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 28, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Who? Me? No, not me. Absolutely not.
And, of course, never ever would I say that trading him would be a "fantastic idea".
Or that he "is expendable".
You're kidding, right?
I’m honestly beginning to wonder about your reading comprehension skills.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 29, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Notice that "If" is the what I said
I have no idea if they go out and get a Quentin/Willingham type of player to play LF. The point is if they do, Diaz doesn’t have a spot. If they don’t, they will keep Diaz.
I have a question...
Pittsburgh supposed sent some cash with Matty in the deal we made with them. Anybody have any idea how much (I could not find a source to give the details).
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
ONE MILLION DOLLARS...!
the exponent in the equation is a matter of preference and "fit" it can vary depending on what the user believes to yield the curve that best predicts a team’s ability to win games.
by Ivan the Great on May 20, 2011 12:31 PM VET
I like the idea of picking up willingham and moving Prado to a utility role. I also think Jamey Carroll would be a huge pick up for our team to back up SS. What would your lineup look like with willingham in it? Im having trouble constructing one.
In baseball, you're supposed to sit on your ass, spit tobacco, and nod at stupid things. Perfect life might I add.
by HeywardFTW! on Oct 27, 2011 3:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Here's what that lineup looks like in real life...
8 – Bourn
7 – Prado
5 – Jones
4 – Uggla
2 – McCann
9 – Heyward
3 – Freeman
6 – Gonzalez/new SS
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
In that case we will continue not being a championship caliber team..
In baseball, you're supposed to sit on your ass, spit tobacco, and nod at stupid things. Perfect life might I add.
by HeywardFTW! on Oct 27, 2011 3:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How much of an upgrade to Prado’s career OPS of about .775 will it take then to get to that point?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Any upgrade over the .775 would help the team, because you then have that .775 on the bench as well as the >.775 starting in LF.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 27, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
How much having a .775 OPS guy on the bench benefits the team overall is a tough question. If the starters are mostly healthy and Prado is basically just being used on Chipper’s day off each week, then the benefits to the team aren’t very great because he’s just not getting significant enough playing time to make an impact.
If you’re assuming that Chipper, Uggla, Freeman, and new LFer are going to combine to miss enough playing time that Prado is going to get half a season or more worth of PA then, yeah, it’s a solid boost over the guys who’d otherwise be filling in.
The question is then an economic one, can we afford to pay Prado his $4-5 MM to sit on the bench and the $7-12 MM it’s going to take to upgrade over Prado in LF so we’re prepared for the possibility that our starters at those positions are going to combine to miss 3-4 months? I don’t think that it’s in the budget for our club.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Can we afford to pay Prado $4-5 MM to sit on the bench?
We paid KK almost $7mil to pitch in AA, so yes. And you can easily find at least 120 games opening up due to rest/injury between Chipper, Uggla, Freeman, Heyward, and new LFer.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 27, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, we paid KK $7MM to pitch at AA and we missed the playoffs, obviously it wasn’t something that we could afford.
And, again, we’re back to assuming injuries to justify a $4-5 MM player on the bench while adding a starter’s salary in LF. Why wouldn’t we just put that $4-5 MM toward a better starting SS or an even better LFer?
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Who exactly could we have gotten for that extra $7mil that would have guaranteed us the playoffs? And assuming injuries for any professional sports franchise is logical and prudent. Spending $4-5 million to have a legitimate backup for any of 5 positions is something any team would be smart to consider.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 27, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Andruw Jones? Lance Berkman? Edgar Renteria?
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Pfft.
Like Berkman would’ve helped a team make the WS this year.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Assuming injuries
That are going to happen.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 27, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Injuries are an absolute given over a 162 season.
For example, what are the legitimate odds of Chipper appearing in more than 120 G; and What are the legitimate odds of Freeman, Heyward, Uggla, and a new LF not combining to miss 60 G?
If Prado was placed in a super-utility role and himself stayed healthy for the entire season, he could very readily reach 400 – 450 PA.
And if Prado was our everyday starter, he could easily get 600-650 PA. Making him a utility guy – assuming the semi-generous game totals you tally – is going to take away about 200 PAs from Prado. I don’t think that’s worth sitting him on the bench for a LF that’s sorta kinda better than Prado (if we could find one and had money to sign him).
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If we always used Prado off the bench instead of giving some starts to the other bench players, and all the time off that the players at those positions needed just happened to all line up with minimal overlap, then yeah, if Prado stayed healthy he could get that many PA.
The odds are that things like that won’t line up, which is why you don’t see teams going out and giving a guy $4-5 MM a year to fill a bench role. Guys who are good enough to actually be worth that money are better suited to being a starter, and if they’re not going to start for you then they’re more valuable as a trade piece to a team that actually needs someone like them as a starter.
Granted, if Prado were on the bench Fredi might just decide to sit Heyward and start Prado instead, so there’s that chance of him getting more PA.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
I actually was gonna write “upgrading SeaBass’s career .690 OPS to there by getting Jamey Carroll will do it”…. but then I looked and found that Carroll himself has only been averaging right around .705. He hits for average and OBP, but with no power whatsoever. But maybe that’s enough if we can start hitting w/RISP and everybody else at least gets back to their career averages.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
We were, and are, a championship caliber team
even if we make no real moves over the offseason. We never had the team firing on all cylinders this year, that doesn’t mean we don’t have the talent to compete.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Injuries were a big part of the misfiring along with post-injury ineffectiveness. Hopefully that will be largely isolated to 2011. Talent-wise there’s no doubt they can compete, as you say.
by MississippiBrave on Oct 27, 2011 10:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To the haters
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
by ATLandUNC on Oct 27, 2011 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Haters gon hate.
I’m rooting for JC. But if he doesn’t earn a spot, eff’m.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us. ~Walt Whitman
I know this is in jest
But I do love how people confuse logic with “hating”.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 28, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Because in the case of JC…people seem to be using “logic” the same way a fortune-teller uses Tarot cards. You just didn’t see enough PAs to make any definitive judgments.
Looking at his MiL stats and short ML numbers…the guy is very Otis Nixon-ish. A role player for sure, but one who earned himself some playing time…unfortunately at the expense of the wrong player.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
We have enough to know that he played over his head.
He had six homers in over 3000 plate appearances in the minors. He had two in just 119 in the majors. He had an infield hit on 24.6% of his groundballs. Joey Gathright has the highest IFH% of anybody with 1000 PA, and its only at 13%.
There’s very little about his line that doesn’t suggest that regression is coming.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 28, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I tried looking up Otis Nixon’s and didn’t have success…what was his?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
That was before they started recording batted ball data.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 28, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
In 5 years in the minors
Otis hit 4 home runs, none of them above A-ball.
He never hit more than 3 in any full season he played in the majors, and he accomplished that only once.
Using the numbers on baseball reference, it looks like his IFH% from 1988→1999 (his entire career minus the years when they weren’t tracking batted ball data) is around 11%.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
See the Jordan Schafer debates
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 28, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
You mean the guy who did steroids
and then blamed his poor performance after he got caught on some made-up wrist injury? What a jerk.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Um
I was refering to this year’s “He’s about to turn a corner”, “He’s changed his approach and is a slap hitter”, “Just give him time, and he’ll be the CF we want”, “He’s getting on, scoring runs, playing great D, and leading us to wins; y’all are just haters” vs. “Um, his AAA stats show he’s bound to regress and be a barely above .300 obp with no power and not what you want as starting CF”, “Not hate, reaility”, and “Y’all are just fanbois”.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 28, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I know
I just couldn’t pass on the opportunity for snark.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
NL PRIDE!!!
"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia
by Daff11 on Oct 28, 2011 12:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Oswalt doesn’t need to save the Rangers, he only needs to provide insurance and depth
- James Loney: Umpires should call pitches from behind mound — and be robots with replay
- Magglio Ordonez set to retire after 15 seasons
- Barry Bonds thinks it will be ‘very sad’ if he doesn’t get into the Hall on his first try
- Chris Johnson’s glove webbing had a Spidey sense at Coors Field — for one play, at least
