2011 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Martin Prado
by SCrebel10 on Oct 25, 2011 11:23 AM EDT
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PrintThis past off-season, Atlanta went out and acquired the right-handed power bat it badly wanted in second baseman Dan Uggla. In response to that move, the Braves decided to move Martin Prado from second base to left field as he had played it in winter ball before.
When the move happened, much of the worry was about Prado's defense in the outfield, and not his offense. Defensively, he was decent enough with a +3 defensive runs saved number. Offensively however, was a different story.
For the first 61 games of the season that he played in, Prado batted .277/.324/.438 which was passable enough to work out in left field. But then, on June 7th, Prado was injured by a ball striking his left knee on a throw and sat out a couple of games. Three days later, he was diagnosed with a staph infection in his other knee and was put on the disabled list.
Prado didn't return to the Braves lineup until July 15th, so he missed over a month of the season due to the staph infection. When he returned, he just wasn't the same player. Prado struggled the rest of the way, not looking like the player Braves fans saw in 2009 and 2010.
From July 15th to the end of the season, he put up a triple slash line of .244/.283/.339, which is indescribably bad. When the Braves lineup struggled toward the end of the season, Prado was looked at as one of the main culprits and it's hard to argue with that.
After the jump I take a look at his plate discipline to try and figure out what went wrong at the plate for Martin Prado.
Prado during the season was considered an ultra aggressive hitter and a free swinger, due to his extremely low walk rate, but the numbers show that may not quite be the case. With a strike zone rate of 53%, Prado saw more strikes than normal, which makes sense thanks to a very low swing rate (42%). When he did swing though, he made contact at a 90% rate, which is very high up there.
His swing judgment number shows that 69% of the pitches he swung at were in the strike zone, right at league average. He didn't go out of the zone more than average either, as 28% of pitches outside of the zone were swung at, right at league average.
The biggest difference in the metrics between Prado and the league average is his passive rate. His 46% passive rate was good for 25th in baseball, meaning he was way too passive inside the strike zone taking pitches compared to the league average.
So what went wrong for Prado? Well, it appears his low walk rate was partially due to taking too many pitches inside the strike zone instead of swinging at too many outside of the zone. One big thing that sticks out to me is his strikeout rate, which dipped from 13.8% in 2010 to 8.8% in 2011. The lack of strikeouts led to more contact (weak contact) and hurt Prado at the plate.
Going forward, Prado needs to not be afraid of striking out a little more, and instead focus on hitting the ball with more authority instead of attempting to make contact with everything.
No matter where Prado could have lined up this past season, his offensive performance as a whole (.260/.302/.385) with a .296 wOBA and a 85 wRC+ wouldn't play well anywhere, but it could be better tolerated at second base than left field.
What Atlanta has to figure out is if this season was an outlier for Prado, or something bigger. Was his bad second half of this season due to the struggles of recovering from the staph infection? No doubt it had an impact, but it's hard for anyone but Prado to know how much. His isolated power dropped significantly as well, which could have also been partially due to the injury.
The drop in BABIP from .335 in 2010 to .266 in 2011 is easily noticeable, so was he just plain unlucky? Probably a little bit, but that doesn't explain everything. He's got to make some changes to his approach in order to get back to where he was the last couple of seasons, and his on-base average needs to jump up if the Braves plan to use him in the top part of the order.
Projecting Prado for next season is a tough thing to do. I don't expect him to be as bad as he was this past season, but he'll still most likely offer less than average production in left field compared to how he would be valued at second base.
Unless Frank Wren goes out and gets an outfield bat and uses Prado in more of a super utility role, the Braves will have to deal with that until he eventually moves to third base whenever Chipper Jones retires.
The bottom line is that the Braves can't afford another horrific season at the plate from Prado.
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I just have a feeling that the Bourn trade affected him adversely. Suddenly, there was this base-stealing threat in front of him that he really hadn’t seen very much (recall that even while Schafer was in the lineup, Odarp was sidelined for much of that time).
It will be very difficult for me to quantify this, but I could imagine these possibilities:
1. Trying to ‘steer’ his contact hits in a certain direction.
2. Trying not to hit into DPs.
3. Trying to have ‘protective swings’ to give Bourn a chance to steal.
4. Trying not to strike out, put the ball in play, and get Bourn to 2nd or 3rd.
Best numbers I have in support of this? 12 GIDP through May. Only 4 the entire rest of the way. Strikeouts were likewise down once he came back.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
These numbers support both my theory and the commentary above:
BABIP: .267(Apr), .303(May), .294(Jun), .288(Jul), .224(Aug), .247 (Sept)
ISO: .126 (Apr), .171 (May), .300 (Jun), .088 (Jul), .105 (Aug), .091 (Sept).
In short, much worse after his return — excepting the .288 BABIP in July, which was still ‘pre-Bourn’). The message for Prado in 2012 should be this: “don’t worry about Bourn being on base. He can take care of himself. You just go out there and rake.”
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I was thinking along these same lines as well
The lack of strikeouts led to more contact (weak contact) and hurt Prado at the plate.
Going forward, Prado needs to not be afraid of striking out a little more, and instead focus on hitting the ball with more authority instead of attempting to make contact with everything.
SCrebels observations of his numbers seem to suggest this as well. He just seemed to have changed his approach w/Bourne in front of him.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
So a good player in front of him makes him worse? A speedy guy causes him to try not to hit DPs? Swing poorly in order for him to steal?
He had those poor months right after coming back from an injruy and performed poorly at the plate. He should have been relegated to a bench player in the final two months.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 25, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it was a combination of stuff: first, having a struggle in getting his swing back, then not trusting it enough while trying to at least do something to advance Bourn along.
So yeah: clearly he needed some guidance or rehab or …. something.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I think it's another thing we can potentially point to the coaching staff doing
They were coaching him into a certain type of behavior when he had men on base in front of him, and he took worse swings. He hit a lot worse during the season with runners on than he did bases empty-which is the opposite of how that split works for the average player. Good hitters generally hit MUCH better with runners on, because there are more holes in the defense, and pitchers aren’t always effective out of the stretch. I think Fredi got into his head this idea of what a #2 hitter should be (which is partially why Chipper Jones didn’t stick there, even though that’s Chipper’s own fault) and it was beaten in Martin’s head that he was there to advance runners, get guys over, instead of getting on base.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Watching Prado over the last couple of years I think it is safe to say he is NOT a #2 hitter. Maybe if McOut or some other dreg of a lead off hitter was there, but not a legitimate lead off guy. Far too much distraction for Martin. We need a SS who can handle the 2-hole.
Isaiah Crowell for Heisman!!
LOL
Watching over the last couple of years, or watching last year?? From the second spot…
2010: .309/.349/.419
2009: .315/.361/.479
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
and those #’s would be without a legitimate lead-off hitter. Did you even read what I wrote?
I’m not surprised he had good #‘s in the 2-hole, what are those #’s with Bourn at #1?
Thx for the input, however, Richard
Isaiah Crowell for Heisman!!
Define legitimate lead-off hitter, please. Someone who bats lead-off, gets on base, and can swipe 30+ games per year??
8 guys did that last year. Guess the other 22 teams don’t have legitimate lead-off guys.
Obviously, OBP is the most important characteristic of a lead-off hitter. In 2009, McLouth led off 82 times with a .354 OBP. Omar Infante led of 23 times with a .404 OBP. In 2010, Omar led off 65 times with an OBP of .349 and Martin had the majority of the other games at lead-off.
So, basically your legitimate lead-off hitter theory is a bunch of idealist rubbish, as is the thought that Prado can’t hit second.
Thanks for playing three days after the fact. Look forward to hearing your response in another three.
Now, sir, that’s being a dick (it’s okay, you can say it here).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
i apologize for having a life that does not revolve around these threads. I also never realized that Omar was a threat to steal. Nor was I aware of anyone else who batted lead-off for the braves that was a threat to steal. Batting 2nd behind McCout and Omar or even Schaefer is a bit different from batting behind Bourn.
Prado has issues hitting behind someone who is LEGITIMATE threat to steal on any given pitch. He cannot real a comfort level in the box. This is obvious. Sorry i don’t have time to back this up with a bunch of stats, I have better shit to do. And thanks for calling my opinions rubbish. Very mature.
Isaiah Crowell for Heisman!!
Your spelling of Schafer is also rubbish.
I also understand your position a little better now. Since you clearly are too busy in your everyday life to pay attention to the Braves, it’s simply a lack of observational skill that caused your opinion of Prado’s batting ability in the two-hole to be wrong.
After all, I’m certain that the 29 pitches Prado saw that involved Bourn stealing caused him to make 18 more outs compared to his career OBP from the second spot prior to Bourn’s arrival.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
no, i just don’t live my life for the braves as you obviously do. Mommy not love you enough growing up?
Isaiah Crowell for Heisman!!
No, she was a tremendously huge Braves fan that forced me to watch every game and know everything about the team so that I can belittle simps like you.
Oh!! The horror!!
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
belittle me? hardly, the only one you are embarrassing is you with your infantile banter.
you’re an arrogant piece of crap. grow up. Believe it or not some people are going to disagree with you in life and from what I can tell you have been coddled by Mommy so much that she forgot to teach you that you live in a world were people have different opinions. And debating in the manner that you have chosen is immature and disrespectful of others. Go change you diaper.
Isaiah Crowell for Heisman!!
I dig different opinions. I don’t dig inferior ones.
I’m well aware that differing opinions exist. I see fools like you offer them everyday. Then they resort to personal attacks when their bullshit, can’t-miss opinion is shaken to its foundation by someone who actually backs up their findings with silly things like statistics.
Thanks for playing.
Hope you can find something to do to take your mind off the fact that your blind opinion was shot down by someone that cared enough to investigate your theory and found it in need of some actual evidence.
Every time I see a child in public crying because their parents won’t give them what they wanted, I’ll think of you.
Goodbye, samxrm, goodbye.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Well...
So a good player in front of him makes him worse? A speedy guy causes him to try not to hit DPs? Swing poorly in order for him to steal?
It really did seem like his hitting philosophy changed. No, that’s not going to account for all of his suck, but it does account (I think) for a lot of the weak contact and generally bad at-bats where he was obviously just trying to move the runner over.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Even better, look at his numbers for the year with runners on base, bases empty, and in ‘situational hitting’ situations. Don’t have them in front of me, but in spots where old school baseball says ‘do something’, like move a runner over, he was terrible. Bases empty he was better.
Bases empty: .265/.311/.424
Men on: .251/.288/.319
HUGE difference. Just look at the change in his slugging. Bases empty, he’s just trying to make good contact and hit the ball hard. Men on, he’s trying to make contact, any contact (at least, that’s the way I see it).
And as I said above, the lead split trends towards guys hitting better with men on than bases empty.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
How much of it was Fredi? You know, a #2’s job isn’t to get on base, it’s to move the runner to 2nd…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 25, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the Braves should go out and get a LF. Maybe trade for Carlos Quentin, or sign Josh Willingham. Prado will still get plenty of AB’s when Chipper and Heyward are hurt. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 300-400 AB’s as a super utility. Then after the season you can decide what to do with him long term. If he bounces back and hits around .300 like we are used to, he can replace Chipper in 2013 and possibly sign him to a multi-year deal. If he struggles again in 2012, then the Braves know they need to move on.
Prado will rake in 2012
One bad year, in which the dude had a staph infection keeping him out for a month, does not override the years of slid offense he’s provided.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
I have no doubt that the staph infection hurt Prado's numbers,
and that he will rebound a bit in 2012. However, even before the injury, his numbers were only OK for a left fielder. The injury definitely does not explain all of his poor performance in the 2nd half, either. His awful walk rate wasn’t caused by a staph infection, you know?
I think it is quite possible that Prado has simply been overexposed (or worn down) as an everyday player. His numbers after the All-Star Break in 2010 were almost the same as his 2011 numbers before the injury: .278 / .322 / .419. Maybe the scouting report finally got out on him after his hot start in 2010, and he hasn’t made the adjustments yet, or maybe he just can’t handle the wear-and-tear without losing some of his skill.
Even at his best, Prado’s power levels aren’t great for a power-hitting position like LF, which is why I think that a super-utility role is best for Martin going forward. He was very successful in that role previously, and I think that he will benefit from playing less. Fredi can choose Prado’s matchups better in that case, and the extra days off will help, too.
If he plays every day, I expect Prado to hit around .275 / .325 / .425, but if he is used more judiciously, he could return to his old .300 / .350 / .460 type numbers. He’s a flawed player (like most players are), but he can be a very effective one, as we saw before 2011. Also: a new hitting coach could help.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Oct 25, 2011 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
100% agree. If we can get even a minute upgrade for LF, it’s a massive overall upgrade because Prado would be so much better than anyone else on the bench. Everyone needs to stop worrying about hurting Prado’s feelings and worry about making this team better.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 25, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there’s a way to give Prado the Super-Utility role without making him give up the starting LF job…and that’s to sign a legit 4th OF (like a Josh Willingham/Cody Ross type) who can fill in at LF when Chipper (3B), Uggla (2B), or Prado himself needs a day off or late-game replacement.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Willingham isn't a 4th OF
He’d be one of the top hitters on the team.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 25, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t his career OPS similar to Prado’s?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Not really
.836 for Willingham versus .775 for Prado.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 25, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the severity of the infection and the extent to which Martin was debilitated by it have been seriously underestimated by folks around here. (Although I know some infectious disease physicians, I’m not one myself and so really this is pretty much just “quasi-informed” speculation.)
Here are a couple of quotes from this news article:
Dr. Gary Lourie, the Braves’ orthopaedic specialist, performed a surgical procedure at 7 a.m. the next morning to remove infection from his lower right leg and left knee. The infection had spread to a contusion on the knee.
"The doctor [in Miami] said this is something you don’t want to play around with," Prado said. "They acted quickly, opened it up and just scraped that thing out right away. It was painful, but I mean, it would have been worse if I hadn’t taken care of it.
"When I got here, I got here right around 1, [Lourie] was waiting for me in the parking lot. I was thinking, waiting for me in the parking lot?"
Prado spent the first week after surgery confined to bed rest, and for the first four days he received antibiotics intravenously. For someone known for playing through injuries and never wanting out of the lineup, sitting at home in bed during the middle of the season was difficult.
"I had to lay down with my leg elevated for a week. I couldn’t go to the restroom, anything," he said.
Give him a day off here and there...
I think one of the reasons why Martin struggled this year, aside from the staph infection and bad hitting philosophy, was his workload. It seemed like he never had a day off going from LF to 3B every fifth day or so. I think Gonzalez should have given him a day off ecery once in a while. Also, he should have stuck with him in LF more and played Conrad at 3B to give Martin more consistency. If his hitting picks up next season I think his permanent position should be LF. We can pick-up someone to play 3B via free agency or a trade when Chipper retires. Any thoughts??
by CaliforniaBrave on Oct 25, 2011 2:23 PM EDT reply actions
If he's on the team past next year
He needs to be at 3B. He’s the best defensive 3B on the team.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 25, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree...
That he is the best defensive 3B on our team at the moment. But, I think that not playing at position on a consistent basis does affect the way he plays. If the plan is for him to take over 3B after Chipper leaves then it may be better for him to be in a utility role next season. At least this way he does into the season knowing that he’s going to play all over the field.
by CaliforniaBrave on Oct 25, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
The change to LF might have had an effect on his batting early in the season. He had a whole new world to figure out at the MLB level. Post DL, I think he was weaker than normal from the down time, then in comes Bourn and Prado’s job changed again, from hitter to mover over’er.
The thing that got me about Prado in LF was his arm. Wow, accurate and strong is a pretty good combo.
Hope he has a better 2011, he’s a worker, he probably will be a bit more like Martin Prado.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I am a Prado fan
Even though he had a sub-par season, I firmly believe that he will be back to form in 2012. I see a bright future for the Brave’s third baseman.
Salcedo?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 25, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Pssshhh…We sign Prince Fielder AND Prince Albert and move Freeman to LF, Pujols to 3B and let Prince handle 1B.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 26, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Pujols did come up at 3B don't ya know.
Sounds like a helluva plan, and Prado can platoon with Freeman in LF or Heyward in RF, while Chipper backs up the IF corners. Or perhaps we just slide CHipper to SS. Yeah, he’s older and not that mobile, but like Pujols and 3B, Chipper came up through the system as a SS and should be comfortable sliding back there, with his offense more than making up for any defensive issues.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Apparently we’re penciling in Chipper for a .400/.500/.600 season with 60 HRs?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 26, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
You think he can play that many games...
I was thinking just 3 weeksin the lineup before he went down, in which he’d go.500, with 30 HR and 150 RBI.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 26, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Chipper/Prado SS platoon.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I love it
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 26, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
If management is serious about wanting to contend for a title then we will have a new LF in 2012. If its a free agent signing good if it’s a package with Prado fine we just need production. I’d love to have Prado for super utility but if we get a legit corner outfielder with him in the package we do it without hesitation. We can always sign Jamey Carroll for our backup 3rd baseman and SS.
In baseball, you're supposed to sit on your ass, spit tobacco, and nod at stupid things. Perfect life might I add.
by HeywardFTW! on Oct 25, 2011 3:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
This guy gets it
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 25, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree...
Prado is our 3B in 2013, and any attempt to sign a FA 3B or trade for one between now and then would end up being too costly. The question is, how much production do we expect out of LF…and…what are we willing to pay for it.
This idea that a player who’s had a starting position for the last 2 years is willing to accept a bench position really shows how little many of us understand about pro athletes.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
He has to accept it
He’s under contract. And not only that, he won his job due to an injury. He knows how this business works.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Oct 25, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope to God Frank Wren understands how the business works too...
and getting a player in 2012 for (my guess) an Arb- or pre-Arb settled $4MM-$5MM (possibly incentive-laden) per year who’s capable of this…
2009: .307/.358/.464/.822
2010: .307/.350/.459/.809 (And oh yeah, over 500 PAs both years)
…instead of signing a FA LF who’s better than Prado for $8MM-$100MM? That money doesn’t exist. And I hope we realize that there is a fair bit of long-term planning that has to occur as well, and considering Prado will most likely stay on as our 3B beyond 2012, as well as the fact that it’s much easier to sign a LF (or find one internally) than it is a 3B…I think we should not be shocked or disappointed to hear the news that Martin Prado is going to be the starting LF for the Braves in 2012.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
But, but
Bowman said there'd be money.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
It’s all going to Reyes though.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
All of it?
I thought we were going to get Rollins too. :’(
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
As addressed ad nauseam in the “DON’T TRADE PRADO PETITION” thread, the idea of Wren selling low on Martin Prado and bringing in a replacement LF who would be expected to significantly outperform what Prado will be expected deliver (i.e., 2009-2010 type numbers), is far-fetched to say the least. Particularly so, when age and money considerations are factored in. And then, when Prado’s future value as our full-time 3B beginning in 2013 is likewise considered, the entire idea of him being dealt pretty much completely falls flat, as in:
C’mon people, It ain’t happenin’.
Is there a slight possibility? Sure. I’d say maybe, perhaps a very very slim 1or 2% possibility.
So you're saying there's a chance?
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
by TBuzz on Oct 25, 2011 7:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
100%
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 25, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
but that is largely based on you somehow having talked yourself into the conclusion that he peaked at age 26 (or was it 25?) and now that he’s 28 (almost – tomorrow is his happy birthday), it is a straight down the side of the mountain slide for the remainder of his career. because if we could reasonably count on him to hit .300 and deliver a .800+ OPS, then he would obviously be a valuable player for a reasonable price who the team should really want to hold onto, if possible.
what I don’t get at all is your rational basis for this conclusion.
How's this for rational basis
We make an upgrade in LF and use Prado as a Super Utility guy – which he is best at.
Prado provides almost no value to us as a LFer. LFers who hit like he does are a dime a dozen.
However, as a Super Utility guy, he becomes one of the most valuable members of the team. Why would you NOT make that happen if the opportunity presents itself?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 26, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The primary opportunity that you “100%”ed was trading him.
Also, you completely dodged and avoided my point – your specific statement on the other thread that you believe Prado has peaked and is now in decline.
Why respond at all if you have no intention of actually responding?
1. You don’t know what I was referring to with “100%”. Since you are obviously confused, I will tell you. When I say “100%” that means that I agree with the entire post, or in other words, 100% of it. Not just that we should trade him – in fact, I’ve never said we should absolutely trade him. What I’ve said is that if the opportunity presents itself, we shouldn’t hesitate to upgrade in LF, even if it means trading Prado. Prado, as a LFer is not some sort of invaluable asset.
2. When did I ever say that I believe Prado has peaked? What I said was that he has 3 straight years of slightly declining numbers, so it is at least worth considering whether or not he has, in fact, peaked. I also said that he will never put up 2009-2010 numbers again, but not because of any regression on his part – but due more in part to the fact that his BABIP for those years was higher than his career norm.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 26, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I had made the point that Prado was well on his way to a batting title in 2010 before trying to play through multiple injuries; and, specifically, that he had played in 83 of the teams first 84 games and at the end of play on 7/7/2010 was batting .336 with 121 H in 360 AB w/ a slash of .375/.500/.875. Your response:
The question then is, do you think Prado can be better than he was in 2010? I don’t. I think that’s his peak.
by justincredubil02 on Oct 17, 2011 9:45 PM PDT
Really? I read that as
“How Prado performed in 2010 is about the best we can expect him to perform,” not “Prado has peaked and will only get worse from here.”
Could’ve been worded better, though.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Reading Comprehension
You have it.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 26, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on who you ask, it seems
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Changing your mind is fine. Constantly revising history
and denying what you, in fact, said is not so fine. That is, if truthfulness counts for anything at all.
You also said, Oct 14, 2011 5:46 PM PDT: “Trading him now would be a fantastic idea.” Also, Oct 17, 2011 6:25 AM PDT: “He is a role player. Role players are expendable.”
But this afternoon, it’s: “in fact, I’ve never said we should absolutely trade him.”
As for the suggestion that stating “that’s his peak” does not mean “he has peaked” and reading comprehension demands that a peak is not a peak, well, I have nothing more to say.
Which of those quotes say that I think we absolutely must trade him?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 26, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It “would be a fantastic idea”, especially since he is entirely “expendable,” not that you would “absolutely” advocate such a trade, oh no, of course not. Can’t you please ever just stop the silly arguing of semantics?
Semantics are kind of important if you are saying that I think we absolutely must trade Prado, instead of what I really said, which is that Prado is expendable, and if we can upgrade in LF, we should do it.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 27, 2011 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
You're trying to catch him in a contradiction
which is an ignoble pursuit in most circumstances anyway, but you’re doing a shoddy job of it on top of that.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Well then, that makes two of us.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 27, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes,but
He didn’t say trading him was fantastic idea.He said trading him now was a fantastic idea.What’s wrong with you Fandave. Since Prado peaked in 2010,that statement implies he will either continue to perform at that level ( an excellent season ) or decline. Since he is not going to regress from his 2010 form we will have him play at a level which made him the team’s MVP and the 9th most valuable player in the entire league that year.
by mikie baseball on Oct 27, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You're arguing silly semantics
fandave can’t be wrong about what Justin meant.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You do understand the idea that a player’s numbers can peak, but the player’s ability doesn’t, right?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Oct 27, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Sign Willingham...
or another plus bat for LF…and open up ABs through competition. If Chipper is healthy….Willingham (or the LF to be named later) hits….Heyward bounces back….and Freeman remains solid…..then Prado is a super utility guy. He gets 400 productive ABs spelling in LF, RF, 1B, 2B, and 3B. It would help keep everyone fresh. If he is getting regular ABs nobody should be upset.
If Heyward struggles..Prado steps in….if Freeman has a sophomore slump….Prado steps in. If Chipper gets hurt…Prado steps in. In those Scenarios he gets 550 abs by playing a portion of the season full time.
The reality is that the Braves have to upgrade the offense…they can’t hope the existing pieces get better this year. The only two places they can really improve that is SS and LF. SS is likely going to be really expensive to get a plus offensive SS. LF can be done at a reasonable cost and Prado’s versatility allows him to still play and get ABs.
I agree that he will be Chipper’s replacement in another year. To me Prado is Palanco II.
Exactly
We can’t just dump off Prado like some on here would like to do. He is an extremely valuable member of this team. If the Braves have any kind of injuries at 2B, 3B, 1B, LF or RF, Prado can fill in. And I don’t mean fill in like Wilson Valdez or Willie Harris. We are talking about a guy that had a career OPS of around .800 entering last season. We are talking about a guy that is a year removed from starting in the All-Star game.
Go out and sign Josh Willingham or trade for Carlos Quentin. Keep Prado for when Chipper and Heyward each miss 50 games this season.
The thing with Prado is that I wonder if Pastornicky will end up taking Prado’s super utility role.
He’s an almost good enough SS, he may be a better bat , and 2B is blocked unless Uggla goes to LF. Prado may become a luxury under that circumstance, though in that circumstance he’ll likely have very good trade value.
First let me say that I love Martin Prado and I think he will have an incredible season next year. However, I’ve been wondering with the weak FA market and the weak trade market what the Braves could actually get for Prado. Quite a few teams out there need help at 2B/3B.
For a utility guy we could look at someone like Felipe Lopez.
Not bench player...
I dont think anyone wants Prado getting 150-200 Abs as a bench player. They would want him to get regualr ABs…just at several positions. In the scenario that has been bounced around Prado is still getting 400 abs a year. If Felipe Lopez gets 400 ABs you are in serious trouble. Felibe Lopez is the kind of guy, at this point in his career, that gets one start every 7-8 days and gets 150 ABs. He is a pure bench material. Prado is not. Prado is certainly good for production at 2B and 3B. Comes in a little short in LF.
Extend Prado
4 years, $20M.
Use him as a Super Utility if we get a LF, have him around for 3B after Chipper retires eventually. He’s a good guy to have around, he can play about anywhere.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Not as eloquently...
but I came to a lot of the same conclusions concerning Prado. I think it had more to do with being “coached” to put the ball in play.
http://www.talkingchop.com/2011/9/21/2440273/martin-prados-down-year-just-doing-what-hes-told
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
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