Top-5 Off-Season Questions For The Atlanta Braves: #5
by gondeee on Oct 13, 2011 10:09 AM EDT
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PrintThis is part five of a five part series of posts that will examine the most pressing questions for the Atlanta Braves this off-season.
Question Five: Do the Braves have any money to spend?
Count me among those who just assumed that the Braves would have more payroll flexibility next season. Count me among those who would be wrong. Here's how:
Coming off the books will be $7 million from Kenshin Kawakami. About $2 million the Braves were paying Scott Linebrink. The $6.5 million the team was paying Nate McLouth, minus the $1.25 million buy-out for declining his 2012 option. The $1.2 from George Sherrill, $2 mil from Peter Moylan (who I assume will be non-tendered, though he may be re-signed to a lower salary), and $2.5 mil from Alex Gonzalez. That's a rough total of around $20 million coming off the payroll.
But the Braves have already committed money to players that will add to next year's payroll. Dan Uggla's salary will increase by $4 mil. Brian McCann's will increase by $2 mil. Michael Bourn will essentially replace McLouth's salary, and likely make somewhere around $7 million in 2012 after arbitration. Jair Jurrjens will probably add another $3 million to his salary after arb, Martin Prado will add around $2.5 million to his salary, and Eric O'Flaherty will add around $2 million. That total comes to around $20 million of additional payroll that was not a part of last year's team -- essentially wiping out all the savings the Braves would get from the salaries coming off the books.
My math may be off here and there, but the general idea holds -- the Braves will not have any wiggle room to add players with their current salary structure. Over the last few days we've been talking about the need to add a reliever or two and possibly some more offense, but doing that by taking on salary does not seem like an option for Atlanta this off-season; not without clearing payroll first.
I've also focused on several trades the Braves could make, and if the team wants to add any player making more than the minimum MLB salary (around $400,000), then they are going to have to part with some of their higher priced players. I've mentioned trading either Tommy Hanson or Jair Jurrjens, though I reasoned that Jurrjens was more likely to be moved. With the added salary that he will be making, Jurrjens looks like the prime trade candidate if the Braves wish to add players.
Martin Prado was also someone I identified as being a player that could likely be traded. And just as his value to another team in the infield may be worth that team giving the Braves a good return, his expected salary next season makes his departure a more likely move by the Braves.
This makes it even more of an imperative that the Braves try to unload at least some of Derek Lowe's salary. That may be the hardest mountain to climb of the off-season -- the team certainly couldn't move him either of the last two off-seasons -- but clearing even half of Lowe's $15 million would give the team enormous flexibility to add a player or two. Still, it's highly unlikely that will be possible, and so moving Jurrjens and/or Prado look like the best trade options on the team, if the Braves are to make any moves.
Then again, the Braves could simply stand pat and not do much of anything. With little flexibility in the payroll to add players, the front office may decide that Fredi Gonzalez and company have to try and win with the team they currently have. But in a season that saw the team undergo one of the worst collapses in the history of sports, will fans be happy if the composition of the team doesn't change? Injuries and ineffectiveness down the stretch aside, some fans will simply not be satisfied if changes aren't made. The real question may be, "how will the players respond if they show up in spring training and all 25 faces are the same?"
Let the most uncertain off-season ever for the Braves begin.
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Here's to hoping this is the last season being owned by LM...
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 13, 2011 10:14 AM EDT reply actions
A new owner wouldn't necessarily = more cash
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
would still be niced to be owned by someone
who actually cares about baseball though
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
by austinhb on Oct 13, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I still maintain
that having an owner who lets the FO do what they deem best, as long as it remains profitable, is a great thing.
It’s not the “best case” scenario of somebody who throws money at the team without rhyme or reason, but it’s still better than a lot of teams get.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Completely agree
Liberty might not let them operate at a loss, but they let them do what they think is best. I have no complaints.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I agree with this completely.
I also think it’s more fun for us fans to have to work with in a reasonable payroll for our rosterbating.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Since when has rosterbation around here ever been reasonable?
We still get regular posts about how we should be going after Jose Reyes this offseason.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Those are the few that take rosterbating to the heights of auto-eROSTic asFIXiation.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Your wordcraft...
Just blew my mind. };0)
I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us. ~Walt Whitman
would be nice if we could get better attendence
that way you don’t have to rely so much on the owner.
Why is this so hard for some people to comprehend....
This isn’t Boston (where they have 10,000 less seats anyway)
Or Chicago (where they can suck and still put asses in seats)
This is ATLANTA. Football and basketball reign supreme. And our stadium is ginormous.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
if i remember correctly
Baseball was the the biggest for a while in the 90’s. Maybe besides Georgia football. I think a lot of it is because atlanta has a lot of northerners in the city and the suburbs. We had a really good post on all of this about a year ago
I <3 Runz
by JHey1212 on Oct 13, 2011 3:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, and
many of the “Braves fans” in the south are nothing more than fair weather fans, who soured on the team after all the years of “falling off in the playoffs.”
Just the way it is. The rest have all sold out, lol, mostly to the Red Sox bandwagon (and Philly, lol, ugh)……the joke is on those clowns, now. Denial for most of them.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
That's my problem
The fans who show up and check their facebook the entire game.
The fans who show up in the third inning, eat a hot dog and leave in the sixth inning.
The fans who show up and get angry when you’re doing the Chop with two outs in the ninth and the winning run on third base.
The fans who show up and ask “What happened to Bobby Cox”.
The fans who show up and don’t cheer at all, even when the Red Sox fans are drowning out the Braves fans.
I’ve been a Braves fan for the past 23 years (Thanks TBS), since back when they were LOSING almost 100 games a season, and I think this team could come back next year and perform great. I do think it would be nice if the fanbase showed more support though…when the Yankees come to Turner Field, the Chop should easily drown out the “Let’s Go Yankees” chants…
The fans who show up
are doing more to help the team than the fans that don’t, no matter what they do when they get to the stadium.
Yeah, it’s annoying that a lot of them don’t really seem to care, but at least they’re buying tickets and getting to games. If they didn’t come at all, who knows what our payroll would look like.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
We couldn’t even drown out the “Let’s Go Pirates” FAN (as in ONE FAN). Thats sad.
Lead off walks usually lead to runs, unless they don't. -Joe Simpson
If you don't like the way the Atlanta Braves are playing, then you don't like baseball. -Chuck Tanner
Nobody could have drained that brat out.
Her voice was like a fog horn.
For 18 innings straight.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
We may have a new owner before next season.
It is simply an unknown at this point.
I doubt it happens that quickly…a team changing hands is like pulling teeth. That said, perhaps before 2013, if they find a buyer in relatively short order.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 13, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
The reason I think it may happen quickly is John Malone is a cunning and manipulative man. He (and his operation, Liberty Media) was never interested in the Atlanta Braves, except as a small but necessary piece of a big deal. If someone in his circle or extended circle of the mega-rich has approached him and talked turkey, they are not calling a press conference to discuss the plan or how negotiations are progressing.
It is simply an unknown.
how much would chipper's retirement free up?
i don’t see him voluntarily relinquishing what will likely be his final salary but he has taken one for the team in the past [see his first long term contract]. it would cut payroll and delete a player who simply cannot play every day any longer. offer him a plum position in the organization. batting coach perhaps.
Chipper was one of the best hitters on our team in 2011.
And he played in 126 games (114 starts). He’s not going anywhere.
One correction to your math, gondee
I read a couple of times (DOB, I think, but I don’t remember, it was a while ago) that McLouth’s buyout was considered part of 2011’s payroll by the Braves. Thus, instead of putting it on the negative side of the ledger, it needs to be on the positive side, making us about $2.5 million ahead. About the price of a placeholder shortstop, which is probably just about all that we’ll do.
Do any of you guys think Pastornicky could grow into Prado’s role as a super-utility?
That could free up Prado’s contract, which will get too expensive soon for what he produces.
Extend Prado
He’ll be arb 3 next year when he’s needed at 3B, quit screwing around and offer him 4 years @ $5M per. He gets stability, Braves get some savings.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I Agree
2012 will probably be Chippers last year and I feel like Prado would be a great, not to mention cheap, replacement.
This
His “down” numbers were do to a major career low in BABIP and, i feel, because after he got used to batting leadoff we asking him to take the approach of a 2 hole hitter. Which he’s done before, but never with speed on base. I think he was adapting to letting Schafer and Bourn do their things. He’ll return to form next year.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
We’ve had Prado waiting in the wings for Chipper to retire for a while now. He’ll about use up his controlled years by the time Chipper retires. Reading Sickles comments about Salcedo possibly going to the outfield eventually, keeping Prado for a while makes more and more sense to me.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Salcedo can just as easily turn around the defense though. I wouldn’t relegate him to the OF just yet.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely
But Salcedo will still be young in 3-4 years. And having Prado tied up, we could use him about anywhere if Salcedo is pushing on the door.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Sickels has absolutely no idea about the Braves plans for anybody – the dude sits behind a computer and ranks prospects based on very limited information. The Braves have been steadfast that Salcedo will play either third or short.
by bravesfaninchitown on Oct 13, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s pretty funny. I can almost guarantee you that Sickels saw each and every prospect on the preliminary Braves list (52 prospects) at least once, and most several times. Mulitply that by all 30 organizations, and I imagine he watched a little bit of baseball this season.
His entire living is made on being a professional freelance prospect evaluator. I highly doubt he’s able to do so basing all his findings on very limited information he found while sitting behind a computer.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I don’t disagree with you (in fact, the opposite) but it is definitely worth noting that his rankings are less than scientific, as his own reminder that is just his “opinion” indicates. That’s a pretty powerful shield for a freelancer.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
This
I know gondeee is driving the “Dump Prado” train, but it would be just as stupid as unloading Infante.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly
I think swinging for the fences was our problem last year, I’d take a bunch of 15-20 HR guys that get hits to the gaps over a 30 HR guy that flies out to the track repeatedly.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
The wrong players swinging for the fences was a problem. If we can get a guy who can hit it out with no problem, then that should be an upgrade.
Depends on who it is
Prado had an off-year.
And Fredi refused to bat the guy where he WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE PRODUCTIVE. We were doing fine with that line-up of Chipper hitting 2nd. Fredi made the last month even more of an uphill battle than it was already.
I don’t blame Prado for any of this. And I don’t think Heyward had a better year than Prado. Not even for a second. Prado was making alot of contact that never dropped in front of guys. Heyward just looked lost.
This past year shouldn’t negate Prado’s solid work the past few years.
If we had any money to speak of, I’m sure we would sign him to an extension. Unfortunately, this situation might ultimately lead to him being traded, instead, and absolutely pwning for another team on a come-back year.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell, even Joe Simpson was saying things about Prado batting second, and he seemed like he was hinting for him needing more time to adjust hitting second with a speedy guy in front of him in Bourn, or to completely move him out of the 2 hole. I think Prado should bat 6th next year, I think he would do a lot better.
braves#1
Everyone under the sun seems to “get this” but Frediot.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Prado's BABIP was lower then ever by far
AND REMEMBER… we asked him to adjust to batting lead off just two years ago and all of the sudden said go back to that 2 hole approach, but this time let those guys run in front of you…. oh and you’ll be playing a new position but still getting work in at 3b routinely
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I think Larry Parrish contributed to our teams’ plate discipline being atrocious. Everyone but Chipper looked lost for the most part, because Chipper is a HOF’er and could work around all the crappy advice.
Pretty harsh words for Prado, imo.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
If he can get back to hitting like he had in '09-'10
I don’t care about his plate discipline. It would be nice if it improved, for sure, but it’s not necessary to make Prado a very useful bat.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Can we get someone with a decent contract that can hit homers and actually get on base too though? That may be difficult to find. Not saying you gotta have a 30 homer and .380 OBP, but 30 homers with .340 OBP or something would be nice, but probably not easy to find especially with the decent contract…
braves#1
Sounds like Nelson Cruz.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He can never stay healthy for an entire season. Cruz was only a 1.6 WAR player in 2011. He hits a lot of homers, but he also plays in Arlington. Is Cruz the 2010 player we saw or the 2011 player we saw OR a combination of both? I’m not sure, but it would likely take someone like Jurrjens to get it done, and honestly I don’t want to take that risk. Martin Prado had the same exact WAR this year as well. And Cruz had a 5.1 WAR in 2010 and Prado had a 4.4 WAR in 2010. Cruz is a good player, but he can never stay healthy for an entire year, and just isn’t worth giving up Jurrjens or something for him, and that is likely what the Rangers would want. Cruz isn’t a big enough of an upgrade over Prado.
braves#1
Jurrjens can’t stay healthy for an entire year either, so seems fair to me. Besides, Prado as a utility player makes us a much better team than Prado as a LFer.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would you trade Jurrjens a good number 2 SP for Cruz who had the exact same WAR as Prado who our LF currently is? And even in Cruz great breakout season last year, his WAR was 5.1 and Prado’s was 4.4, so very freaking similar. It absolutely does not make us a better team trading Jurrjens who is a good 2 SP for Cruz who isn’t even as good as our current LF. So, you would replace Jurrjens with Minor in the rotation, which makes us worse. You replace Prado with Cruz, it’s a wash. So, all you fix is improving our bench with him. Just doesn’t make sense losing a good 2 SP just to improve your utility role. But, hey that’s just me. Nothing wrong if you wanna do it, but I wouldn’t even think to consider doing this.
braves#1
You’re not replacing Prado with Cruz you’re adding him. You’re not replacing 4.4 with 5.1 you’re adding them together. We can easily replace JJ, we can’t easily add the depth that Cruz would give us. Between Chipper, Cruz Heyward, Uggla and Freeman Prado would still probably start 110-120 games at least.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, you can replace Jurrjens with Minor, but I don’t think at least right now Minor is as good as Jurrjens. So you are losing something right there. You are replacing Prado in LF with Cruz, and putting Prado in at super utility player, I know what you mean. You have to realize that Fredi will likely use Hinske more times than not to give Freeman a rest at 1B. And will Fredi actually give Uggla some days off? We have a hell of a backup Catcher in Ross and we saw McCann struggle mightily after he came back from the injury and Fredi kept trotting out McCann. Obviously McCann is our guy, but I felt that Ross needed to be in more games.
I honestly question Fredi’s use of Prado if he will be super utility guy. Obviously we all know that Chipper can’t play every day, he even knows that too. Chipper can still probably play 120-130 games. So, you could plug in Prado for the rest of the starts at 3B and when he isn’t starting maybe get him some games in the OF and some pinch hitting duties. He could still get a good bit of games and help out if Fredi actually uses him like he should, I have my doubts though. My main beef with this is that I don’t feel Cruz is a big enough of an upgrade to trade Jurrjens.
I personally would rather see us with Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy and Minor in our rotation with Prado starting in LF and us finding someone that can play 3B, 2B, and some OF that can be a super utility player, maybe even use Pastornicky in that role in 2012, rather than seeing Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Medlen(or whoever as 5th SP) in our rotation with Cruz starting in LF and Prado on bench. Obviously we won’t agree here, which is fine, just my opinion on this.
braves#1
I honestly question Fredi’s use of Prado if he will be super utility guy.
Arb year for Prado. He’s looking at a jump in salary. If he’s not traded & is put back into the role of super utility guy, I think his 2012 salary will be incentive for Fredi to utilize him as much as possible. Can’t see leaving that much money sitting on the bench IMO.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
How about utilize him lower in the batting order?
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I would be sad if Prado is traded. He’s my favorite Brave right now other than Hanson and Beachy.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
He would just end up eventually playing 3rd for the Phillies (while, I’m guessing, really hitting us crazy hard).
We have to hold onto him. Getting rid of him would be a bad, bad call.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
"nothing special"
I think a guy that starts an All Star game at 2B, moves to another position for the good of the team and works longer and harder than anybody else on the team is pretty special. Back in ST, every day, Prado was the last to leave, working out, working on his game, his new position. During his slump, he stayed in the cages past midnight, trying to work out of it. “nothing special”…..yeah, ok.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
.........
“Solid, above average players” are usually pretty special, imo.
lol
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Prado
During his slump, he stayed in the cages past midnight, trying to work out of it.
I remember reading something that his mom was responsible for this. Told him he needed some extra work & she was waiting for him in the clubhouse. Mama cracking the whip. LOL.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
The Phillies are out, The Yankees are out (it just feels good to say it), and unfortunately soon it looks like the Tigers will be out. I am going to miss baseball. I know this has nothing to do with the topic. If the Braves gain anybody, it will probably be another Linebrink/Proctor type pitcher or a cheap utility man that will serve as nothing more than a backup for guys to get a day off. No money to spend and not drawing big crowds on a regular basis hurt your ability to get a impact player.
"I Farted" - Me, everday
Attendance is a big problem
I don’t see why a city the size of Atlanta always has a problem getting people to Braves games. I don’t live in Georgia, so I have no idea what kind of local marketing campaigns the Braves put on, but it seems that it shouldn’t be harder to get a few thousand more people to the games in one of largest cities in the US. It boggles me living in the Philadelphia area because you essentially have to get second hand tickets to a phillies game if you want to go.
by michaelcooksey on Oct 13, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
You clearly missed the huge post royhobbs did
outlining exactly how much it sucks to try to get to a Braves game.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Not to mention it’s much more enjoyable to watch a game at home in HD then from some crappy seats at the stadium.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh, it's great fun to get out to the Ted
it’s just a huge PITA. That’s the thing that kills it. If it weren’t for that, I’d go to 50 games a year.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
It is because Georgia is a football state
Baseball comes 2nd after football (even though all the football teams here are overrated) . Plus the faith in the Braves hasn’t been the same since they first starting getting good here in the 90’s.
I think the only way to fix the attendence problem is if the Braves got really bad for about 5-7 years to where people will miss seeing a good Braves team, then once they get good again, people will come, and they will come with big numbers. Not the typical 22,000 a game.
Or...
If the Braves would actually win a championship. Part of the reason that attendance is so flat is a burned-out fan base that was taken to great heights in the 90’s, only to be let down when they failed to win the big trophy.
Win a World Series, and next season’s attendance would see an uptick. I’m sure of it.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism. Tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set. Repair these losses, and be a blessing to us. ~Walt Whitman
Well....
They won the Big Trophy in ’95 (the most southern-sounding year, lol)
But 1 / 14 Big Trophies caused some heartache.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Over 50% of the Atlanta area population is from somewhere else
When people move, they typically do not change allegiances to their sports teams. While they may attend a game or three during the season (especially if their favorite team is in town), they generally are not going to buy season tickets. That’s if the team is good. If the team is bad, over half the population will tune them out, and attendance drops like a rock.
I remember being able to go to a Braves game in the mid 80s, buy a nosebleed, and sit behind the dugout because there were only about 4,000 in the stands. If the Braves return to 100+ loss seasons, we will see attendance below 10k for weekday games again. All sports in Atlanta have seen this – the Hawks drew extremely well in the 80s at the Omni (who was Theo Mni? lol) when they were good and challenging the Celtics in the East. During the recent long run without playoffs, attendance was bad as well. Even the Falcons have drawn poorly when they were a bad team, especially pre-Dome. Hockey has never drawn well in Atlanta.
I agree that it being such a PITA to get to a Braves game has an impact, and the fact that the stadium is in a relatively unsafe part of town also has an impact. But I think the biggest impact is that over half the population does not have a long-standing personal connection to the team, because they are from somewhere else.
We have that same issue here in Phoenix.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Large African-American population as well.
There are exceptions, sure, but overwhelmingly, most of my black friends describe baseball as, “watching paint dry,” or “watching grass grow,” and only watch basketball and football.
Those are alot of the empty seats during games, and people may not want to “go there” but it’s a combination of all these things.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
sigh
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
This is why Lowe has to go
Even if the Braves pay $10 million of his salary just to free up $5 million. That $5 million could go a long way in signing somebody to play left field, or to trade one of our starters for an OF with a higher salary. Must find a way to make it happen.
by michaelcooksey on Oct 13, 2011 10:41 AM EDT reply actions
I hated that contract when it was signed. I felt like I was the only one, as all the posts I made were countered by “well he’s the best available pitcher”. That will go down as one of the worst contracts the Braves have ever signed.
We had Hampton’s salary, but we didn’t sign that one. Someone else made that offer.
And, luckily since he was always injured insurance paid us for a large majority of our responsibility in that contract…
by michaelcooksey on Oct 13, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
The front office really should look at that as a $5 million gain than a $10 loss. If a sinker baller like Lowe were to pitch in a home stadium with a ton of foul ground (Oakland?) it would definitely help a guy who more often pitches to contact. Lowe is easily worth $5 million to a team.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 13, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Foul ground helps fly ball pitchers. A grounder in foul territory is still a grounder.
Lowe would be most valuable to a team with a small ballpark, since grounders don’t clear fences.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 13, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of foul ground helps every pitcher, but it helps those with lower strikeout rates more. Fly ball pitcher tend to have higher strikeout rates and are more prone to miss bats altogether. Pitchers like Lowe are very babip dependent and the A’s pitchers have had the 3rd lowest over the past 10 years, due a lot to their home stadium. As we saw in 2011, if Lowe’s babip goes awry, it’s ugly.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 13, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Strikeout rates aren’t even part of the BABIP conversation. It doesn’t matter how many guys are struck out, because they don’t’ count in BABIP. Yes, he gets more outs on balls in play than a person with a high strikeout rate, but his boost from increased foul ground is still fairly minimal.
When looking at batted ball types, FB are by far the best for a pitcher with a lot of foul territory, because FB in foul territory can’t be hits but they can be outs. A grounder doesn’t share that distinction. It’s just a foul ball.
Sure, lots of foul ground helps everyone, but the amount it helps a FB pitcher as compared to Lowe is immense. Lowe would be better suited in playing at a stadium that has the least amount of fair territory, because it gives his teammates a better opportunity to cover all the available ground.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Foul ball outs aren’t really fly balls — they’re pop ups, which don’t really correlate well from year to year. So, they’re not too dependent on a pitcher’s batted ball types. What foul ground really helps is those with a smaller K%. Pitchers, like Lowe, who are more batted ball dependent therefore more park dependent. Obviously, if you have a high strikeout rate, you’re less dependent on park factors.
Lowe in a “smaller park” would be a disaster. Sure, he’s a ground ball machine and you can hit a ground ball over the fence. But, if Lowe mistakenly leaves a pitch up — there’s a much higher chance it’s gone. His HR/FB for is career is 12.5% (compare to Jared Weaver’s 7.5%). If were to play in Yankee Stadium, left handed hitters would have a field day on balls that are slightly up. Ground balls are ground balls everywhere. That’s not park dependent. When he doesn’t induce ground balls, he’s in trouble.
Derek Lowe’s Babip clearly went down from his Boston years during his Dodger years. Pitching in a park with one of the largest foul territories, he was able to not give hitters another chance to put the ball in play, and since he’s a relatively low K% pitcher, it’s important. Fenway is one of the least friendly pitcher Babip parks in MLB with the minuscule foul territory and the Green Monster turning fly ball outs into doubles.
The smallest fair territory actually helps fly ball pitchers. Outfielders have a better chance of turning a fly ball into an out. Fly ball pitchers tend to have lower HR/FB%, more strikeouts and walks and the ballpark doesn’t matter as much.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 13, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you might actually want to check into that a little more. GB pitchers, FB pitchers, doesn’t matter. There’s a smattering of players above and below the average HR/FB, because it’s not controllable.
There are a few players that seem to buck this trend, but most of those play in large ballparks. Which makes sense. Weaver or Cain, for instance, play in large ballparks in which they can afford to have a lot of FBs. Of the top 30 pitchers in HR/FB, how many play in small ballparks?? Seven.The rest play in neutral or pitcher friendly environments. HR/FB is a ballpark factor thing, not a GB/FB thing.
The key is that Lowe has so few FBs – that’s why he’s attractive in a small park. If you give up a FB 20% of the time, and 10% of those go over the fence, that’s a HR% of 2%. Different guy gives up 40% FB, still 10% go over, that’s a HR% of 4%. Limit the FBs, limit the homers. HR/FB% doesn’t matter much.
And you must be right on his BABIP thing, because his BABIP during his full three seasons starting in Boston was .282 while his BABIP during his time with the Dodgers was .283.
Also, foul balls to the outfield aren’t pop ups. But pop-ups do count as FBs.
Great story about leaving balls up…any bad pitch has a higher % chance of being taken yard. For all the words you put into that, it’s just a story. Bad pitches get hit.
The smallest fair territory hurts FB pitchers, not helps them. I honestly have no clue where you came to the opposing conclusion. Having plenty of room to get under a ball, wherever it may land, is a boon. It doesn’t matter if it’s on the LF line or behind the catcher, it all plays into the FB pitcher’s hands.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Per FanGraph’s intro to SIERA:
“the higher a pitcher’s groundball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. In other words, a pitcher with a 55% groundball rate will have a lower BABIP on grounders than a pitcher with a 45% groundball rate.
As for flyballs, pitchers with a high flyball rate will have a lower Homerun Per Flyball rate than other pitchers."
HR/FB isn’t totally random. Elite FB pitchers induce weaker fly balls and sharper grounders. Elite GB pitchers induce weaker grounders and stronger fly balls. Which of these pitchers requires an expansive ballpark more?
Grounders have essentially no park effect whatsoever! If they get past an infielder, they’re almost always singles. An expansive outfield will allow more weak fly balls to become hits. Essentially, groundball pitchers should pitch in parks with the most amount of playable ground, foul or fair. Pitchers with elite FB rates should actually pitch in smaller stadiums to make sure their weak fly balls don’t drop for hits. A large park allows a GB pitcher (who almost always tries to keep the ball down) to get away with a mistake left up in the zone. A small park allows a fly ball pitcher’s outfielders to turn their fly balls into outs more frequently, as their fly balls are less likely to home runs anyway.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 14, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
HR/FB isn’t totally random. Elite FB pitchers induce weaker fly balls and sharper grounders. Elite GB pitchers induce weaker grounders and stronger fly balls. Which of these pitchers requires an expansive ballpark more?
You’re taking this one step further than the data suggests. Yes, BABIP on GBs for GB pitchers is lower than an average pitcher, and likewise on FB. However, nowhere does it suggest that a GB for a FB pitcher (or a FB for a GB pitcher) is “sharper.” Sharper than that pitcher’s bread-and-butter, sure, but not sharper in an overall sense. You’ve overstepped the data there.
I suggest this article, which includes a handy spreadsheet link at the bottom. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batted-balls-and-park-effects/
Its findings: Flyball outs are much more common in large ballparks, as I’ve stated repeatedly. Having a lot of foul ground allows for many more FB outs, as I also stated. The more spacious the ballpark, the better it is (with Coors being an exception because of the altitude) for FB pitchers. Grounders park effect?? Zero, as we have both generally agreed. And, of course, small ballparks cause HRs to occur more often. That’s common sense we can all agree on.
So, now let’s look at it from a team standpoint. Knowing that a spacious ballpark promotes FB outs, would a GM with a large ballpark prefer a FB or a GB pitcher?? Since the GBs don’t factor either way and a FB is favorable, you’d want a FB pitcher.
Now let’s switch to a small ballpark. Knowing that FBs produce more HRs, and your park does not do a good job of suppressing HR/FB, would you rather have a GB or a FB pitcher? Even though FB pitchers produce fewer HR/FB, the ballpark effects raise that percentage to neutralize the effect of a FB pitcher. Meanwhile, a GB pitcher can reduce the overall amount of HR by limiting the amount of FB.
Again, look back to my scenario. Let’s say FB pitcher has a 45% FB rate and a 7.5% HR/FB in a park-neutral environment. On 100 batted balls, you’re going to have 45 FB and 3.375 HR. Now, take your 60% GB pitcher that gives up 20% FB and 12.5% HR/FB in a park-neutral environment. Of 100 batted balls, 20 will be fly balls and 2.5 will be HRs. Even though he gives up HRs at a higher rate per FB, his HR total is less.
Now let’s go to Miller Park, simply because ESPN’s HR ballpark factor and that of the spreadsheet seem to agree that a HR is 6% more likely there than in a park-neutral environment. That bumps the FB pitcher’s HR total to just more than 3.5 while the GB pitcher will experience approximately 2.65 HR in those 100 batted balls. The pitcher’s ability to limit FBs is significantly more important than the HR/FB, in limiting HR. As a result, having a GB pitcher is better for the team playing in a small ballpark.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 14, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
for making me dizzy w/statisical info. Seriously, posts like this are really helpful to stat understanding challenged individuals as myself. Thanks for doing the research & explaining it in such an easy to understand fashion.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
Lowe could be valuable to a team with good infield defensive range instead of a infield with 3 statues in it like the Braves.
This guy’s “truth” hurts….. And is bogus.
Lowe needs a team that scores alot of runs for him, so maybe he can come away with a 9-7 Win. Knocking the Braves infield defense (which is good enough) has nothing to do with anything, regarding Lowe’s struggles.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
Lowe had a bit of bad luck on occasion with grounders finding holes, but it’s not like he was out there pitching well and our defense just let him down. He was just… bad. No way around it.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Call me a blind optimist, but...
maybe Lowe will have a great contract year and pitch well. It’s happened before, where a player underperforms for two-three years, then really turns it up a notch or 6 in the last year of his deal. I hope this happens, and the Braves thank him for his service and wish him well as he leaves for another team as a FA.
It’s hard to imagine him pitching worse next year – I’m sure it’s hard for Lowe to imagine it too.
Lowe would be great as a reliever
Unless you can get at least half of his salary back i say keep him and put him in the pen. if you look at alot of his starts he was fine for the first 3 innings of the game than started to meltdown in the 4-6. That sounds like a great guy to throw in there for the 5-7 innings. Put him in during the 5th if our starter gets in trouble and leave him in for the 6th and maybe the 7th depending on his stuff that day
Agreed
That could free up money to trade for a SS as well. Maybe Furcal again haha. Or Theriot. I bet the Cards would be willing to give up one of them…
Furcal will never be a Brave again, no matter what. Not after what he and his agent pulled.
by michaelcooksey on Oct 13, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Jurrjens
I also think that it would be a great idea to trade Jurrjens. There should be some team willing to give up a top prospect or two for a young pitcher with two arb years left. If they could get a good young left fielder that would allow Prado to return to being the super utility player.
As a Fan I will not be disappointed if it is mostly the same 25 faces!
I still believe we have the hitters to compete. We made the change we needed to do, which was getting rid of Parrish. Everyone had a down year – especially in September. They are better hitters than that. The little injuries we had just snowballed. Except for some bad luck we would have made the playoffs. If Chipper doesn’t lose the ball in the lights, Kimbrel and Venters don’t implode by trying to do too much, or if in the last game the ball Chipper hit was just 2 or 3 feet more to the right; we would all be talking about a different thing.
Get rid of Lowe if possible, or bury him in the bullpen. Keep Gonzo. His defense is worth it. Stay pat and work on hitting the ball. We need to hire a good hitting coach, put in some work this off season and get everyone healthy. That is all we need to do.
by James Ford Butch Allen on Oct 13, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Me neither
If our collective hitting approach had not completely fallen off of a cliff (throughout the year) we would have made the playoffs.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Pay McCann in Twinkies and Quarter Pounders. It’s the only way to save the team.
I’m here to kick ass and drink sweet tea, and dammit, I’m all out of sweet tea.
You forgot the puppies.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay, but not for human consumption. Tell him they’re just for companionship.
I’m here to kick ass and drink sweet tea, and dammit, I’m all out of sweet tea.
Hopefully Peter Billingsley will be available to play McCann in his biographical movie one day…
by TBuzz on Oct 13, 2011 12:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Brian
misses that hair
[My dad's] at work making $32 an hour.
by ChopMaster on Jun 29, 2011 2:52 PM PDT
by Jareth Cutestory on Oct 13, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Pulls off the shaved head, regardless. Looks more grown up that way, imo.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i, for one,
don’t like looking “more grown up,” except in regards to wardrobe.
[My dad's] at work making $32 an hour.
by ChopMaster on Jun 29, 2011 2:52 PM PDT
by Jareth Cutestory on Oct 13, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Not stocky enough for you any more, eh?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Naw, he’s perfect. But he probably loves Twinkies and Quarter Pounders.
I’m here to kick ass and drink sweet tea, and dammit, I’m all out of sweet tea.
Actually
He likes chicken wings. He’s been spotted at the Wild Wings (not of the Buffalo’s variety for those of you who don’t live in Gwinnett Co.) here in a Suwanee a few times.
Lead off walks usually lead to runs, unless they don't. -Joe Simpson
If you don't like the way the Atlanta Braves are playing, then you don't like baseball. -Chuck Tanner
/camps outside restaurant
I’m here to kick ass and drink sweet tea, and dammit, I’m all out of sweet tea.
Sad thing
He even sat next to me once a couple years ago waiting for his to go order (at a different place thats now closed) and I didn’t even realize it was him.
Lead off walks usually lead to runs, unless they don't. -Joe Simpson
If you don't like the way the Atlanta Braves are playing, then you don't like baseball. -Chuck Tanner
I would’ve tried to play it cool, but ended up coming apart in spectacular fashion. Giggling and inane utterings and such.
I’m here to kick ass and drink sweet tea, and dammit, I’m all out of sweet tea.
Might have gotten a bit awkward when you complimented him on how great he looked in the live video stream of his bathroom you set up.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Re-sign Gonzo.
Let Hinske go. Save $1.5M. Great guy, but honestly not much help.
Same with Moylan. We’ve got plenty of pen arms.
If we can’t afford better, use a bench of
Ross, C
Diaz, LF
Stefan Gartrell RF
Constanza, CF
Pastornicky, SS 2B
Prado covers LF, 1B, 3B
Rotation…Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor….trade Hanson or Jurrjens mid-season for a LF or SS, and open a spot for Teheran, delaying his clock by a year.
If we can move Lowe, we could have a better bench, if not, put him in the pen. Lowe, Chipper and possibly Hudson come off the books next year anyway, load up then. We have good players, no need to dump the starters, they should rebound.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
That is an ugly bench.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Hinske and Conrad haven’t done much for me lately.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
And I’m fine without them, but you have to do better than Gartrell and Constanza.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Hinske was just looking kind of washed up. Conrad was just looking like he needed some better advice / better plate approach.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
lmao
Against righties? Ok.
Diaz was sucking upon his return, but Hinske rarely, if ever, was anything other than an easy out.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
If one of those 25 faces is Derek Lowe
I will be disappointed. I fully expect us to eat about $10-12 million of his salary to move him. Other than that, you won’t see any major complaints here. I have faith in Prado and Heyward to rebound, and I have faith in McCann to produce like he did before his oblique injury. Uggla is still going to be around a .240 hitter, but that’s ok because we got him to hit home runs. Chipper is the key for me. If he can hit around .280+ again, I think we are going to be just fine.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 13, 2011 11:12 AM EDT reply actions
Fredi has a man-crush on Prado
So I’d be surprised if he was moved. Unless Wren steps in, I imagine Fredi benches Jason if he starts 0-4 and rides Prado until his leg falls off.
Fredi actually made a lot of the right personnel decisions throughout the season.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Fredi did ok considering 70% of the team was slumping. But early in the season, pre-streak for Uggla, I thought Fredi was standing by Uggla stronger than he was Hayward. Uggla was batting .175 and lead the team in innings and PA’s.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
WOW
Can’t believe I spelled Heyward wrong. 30 lashes for the Hop!
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Wasn't just you
The way Fredi treated slumping players was remarkably inconsistent. Didn’t like that a bit.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Did you ever get the feeling it was because Fredi knew Uggla from his Marlins days? Maybe Fredi had played a part in the Braves going after Uggla? I don’t know, but I sure got that feeling.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
No.
But I do feel that at the very least Uggla was giving Fredi and Wren want they wanted; that being homeruns. In all honesty it seems like that is all they want out of their 4-5-6 bats.
Trust, not that it a bad thing (he’s a fringe HOFer), but it would seem like Wren and Fredi would go out of their way to force Heyward into an Andruw Jones’ish role, rather than him easing into maybe a Chip, Arod, Pujols, etc… 300/400/500 type of bat.
The franchise now values homeruns, seeing as they come at such a premium nowadays.
As of July 4th, Uggla only had about 12 HR’s. I doubt seriously they were real happy about that when combined with a .175 BA.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Exactly...
Mid way through the season, even a subtle hot streak keeps the man on pace to hit 30.
Its clear as day that manufacturing runs was never really the plan with this lineup. It just, sort of, had to happen.
Stats showed Uggla was unlucky, Heyward was just bad.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at Uggla showed he was horrible
if I had a nickel for every time he struck out swinging at a slider that was 2 feet off the outside of the plate, I’d be in a different tax bracket this year.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Why not, we'll both be rich.
The fact is, neither Heyward nor Uggla were swinging well when they were slumping. One of them got months to work it out, the other got benched. That pisses me off. Do one or the other, don’t play favorites.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
good point
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
One is a rookie with a flaw in his mechanics..
While the other is a vet. Apples and oranges here
The other was a vet with a flaw in his mechanics.
More like apples and pears, and not enough difference to let one of them have two months more leash than the other one, imo.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
kiwis and bananas
yeah, Heyward got benched here and there for a game. But, it wasn’t until Constanza that Heyward lost significant playing time. Uggla was 15 games or so into his hitting streak by the time Constanza debuted.
so your comment about one getting ‘months to work it out’ doesn’t add up for me. the discrepancy is not that large.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Uggla hit worse than Heyward ever did for the first two months and he was given, what? Two games off? Three? Heyward was benched as soon as we had a “hot hand” and never got more than 50% playing time at best the rest of the season.
So, yeah.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
And then Uggla had a 33 game hit streak.
So….
Yeah.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
How is that relevant?
Did Fredi somehow magically know that if he left Uggla out there to flail for two months that he’d suddenly become the hottest bat in baseball?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I hate defending Fredi, but
He knew that Uggla would eventually start hitting. He saw the guy day in and day out in Florida for years.
Heyward looked like Michael Jordan at the plate….completely out of his element. It was a blessing in disguise that Constanza went on his tear, because Heyward wasn’t turning anything around.
Just saying, it’s justified that Fredi played Uggla (bc that streak carried us for 33 games) and that Heyward was benched because he became a ground-out / strikeout machine.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
You can't justify it like that, though.
If you can, then I could argue “well Heyward might’ve gone on a 33 game hitting streak, too, that could’ve carried us into the playoffs, if Fredi hadn’t basically benched him for the last couple of months.” If the end result of letting him swing through his slump is what justifies it, we’ll never know if Heyward could’ve gotten out of it.
As for “looking like Michael Jordan at the plate” – Uggla was swinging at anything up there. Anything. It’s not like he was having good at-bats, or getting burned by the BABIP fairy – at the time his hitting streak started (86 games into the season), he had 77 strikeouts and 55 hits. Just a couple of games previous, he put up a golden sombrero against the wondrous pitching staff of the Baltimore Orioles. He was occasionally able to hit something hard when a breaking ball hung up, or somebody threw a fastball somewhere they should’ve known better than to throw a fastball, but for the most part he was swinging wildly at stuff way off the plate or making weak contact and grounding out or popping up.
Did he redeem himself? Yeah, kinda. The hitting streak was all kinds of fun to watch, and it brought him close to some of his career numbers (but those first two months were way too much damage for him to have anything close to an average career). But no one could’ve expected him to go on that kind of a tear, not even Fredi. And if Fredi’s philosophy was “put him out there, let him get some more swings, he’ll come out of it” – why didn’t that apply to Heyward? Yeah, he may have been looking silly at the plate, but so was Uggla. He may have been grounding out / striking out a lot, but so was Uggla. He may have been using the same approach on every pitch, trying to do too much to get around on the ball – but so was Uggla. So why give one such a long leash but bench the other one at the first opportunity? It’s not logical.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
That may be so, but that’s one of the few things that I think Fredi played right.
Like Frank Wren said, the position is Heyward’s to earn. So obviously, other people can read between the lines as well.
Having said all that, I’m one of the guys that never would have traded Infante (and a lefty) for Uggla to begin with.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 14, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Did you think he was playing it right in May?
Or did you come of that opinion after the hitting streak started?
I know you’re not just knee-jerk defending Fredi, and I respect that. I just don’t think it’s appropriate to judge him based on the results – you have to appraise the merit of the decision itself, regardless of how it turned out.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Another...
..force trade button idea. I know the Sox could use an arm or two, but giving up two young good players for JJ and minor league fodder? Not gonna happen.
I think we have a good team that can go all the way next year...
With the exception of Lowe, I think the team looks good enough to win it all next year. Those of you who want Wren to make a million and one trades are insane. The problem with our team was hitting philosophy and injuries. Hitting philosophy is mostly the responsibility of the hitting coach, and injuries are unpredictable. Wren made it clear that the FO’s hitting philosophy was much different than what Parrish’s philosophy was. In other the words the only change that may occur is in the hitting coach position.
If we can somehow get rid of Lowe and pick up a utility guy we should be in good shape. If our hitting sucks come the trade deadline, then I would understand trading JJ for anothe bat. We shouldn’t get rid of Prado because he can replace Chipper in 2013. All we need is one awesome utility guy.
by CaliforniaBrave on Oct 13, 2011 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
I love the idea of waiting until June/July to trade Jurrjens
Right now, Hudson is basically the only guy in the rotation we can count on to consistantly give us 6-8 innings every time out. Hanson is still pretty inconsistant, and while one night 109 pitches may get him through 7, another night he throws them all too early and gets pulled after five. Jurrjens, in addition to being a really good pitcher, gives us another innings eater to 6-7 innings in each of his starts. This is something we are going to need with Beachy/Minor/Teheran/Delgado being our other guys. They aren’t bad, but they just can’t go deep enough yet.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 13, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
JJ & Lowe + Gartrell +cash to Cleveland for Sizemore +prospects
Sizemore would fill the LF vacancy, keep Prado for SU, Lowe and JJ supplements salary for Sizemore, Diaz platoons for Heyward and Sizemore when LP comes up. Although I do like the JJ+MILB BP arm for Reddick & Lowrie
bravesfan1957
Sizemore is a pretty good candidate to be non-tendered, yo.
by another simpsons avatar on Oct 13, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Sizemore is now sizeless because of injury history. He's pretty much worthless at this point due to his inability to play a full season.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
That was an awful pun.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
youre right! but the point remains.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Who cares which side of the plate he hits from if he’s productive. In this case though, he is pretty terrible against lefties. I just can’t stand when people only look at LHB or RHB without even looking at the stats.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Small feasible moves...
1. Trade Lowe for another bad contract: Bobby Abreu, anyone?
2. Trade Lowe for nothing and eat 8-10 million of his salary.
3. Trade Jurrjens for a SS (Jed Lowrie? Scutaro?)
Even if we trade 2 SP, there is still a surplus of arms that there’s really no need to go out and get anyone for the bullpen:
Rotation: Hudson Hanson Beachy Minor Teheran/Delgado
Bullpen: O’Flaherty Venters Kimbrel Medlen Vizcaino Martinez Hoover/Valdez
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
I have confidence, not in ownership, not in Fredi Gonzalez, but in Wren.
And I’m sure Wren will make some kind of great move during the offseason, but with Fredi Gonzalez behind the helm, it almost negates the move.
I’d give Fredi another year, and if it sinks again, move away from him before things get even worse. He was managing the Braves like he was still managing the Marlins, and we aren’t the Marlins. He didn’t do the little things from his part, and this, along with whatever nonsense Parrish was preaching, and the injuries, is what did us in.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 3:02 PM EDT reply actions
"I'd give Fredi another year"
Does this mean you will stop posting negative things about him every post?
If we win it all, or, if we don’t and he’s fired….? Sure. Fredi did nothing to help our situation.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
trade with the yankees
Lowe and JJ for nick swisher. even swap. thet get needed pitching, we get a switch-hitting power hitter. everybody wins.i’d keep Hinske,get rid of Conrad-resign AG1 YEAR ONLY.
Again, we can’t force Gonzo to accept a one year deal. He’s clearly good enough to warrant a multi-year deal if he wants one.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
How old is he though?
He would be wise to take one year with the Braves and try to get some offense to go along with the stellar D. He might even see some playoff action.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
he is 34 right now, be 35 in Feb. On the open market, you never know what happens. He plays outstanding defense, and can hit some homers, so some teams would be delighted at that and possibly offer him a 2 year deal. If he does sign back with us, I’m sure he would be leaving some money on the table.
braves#1
This.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 14, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Swisher would be a great bat to have in the line-up however,
Can’t forget that Heyward still may prove to be the bat we hoped for. If he simply hits anywhere near what we all expected this year then we already have the hitter we are all talking about needing. Maybe a one handed follow through?
Prado will produce just fine in 2012. Bring him back
Lowe to the Bullpen
It will be a new team even if we dont make trades. And it will be awesome.
That is going to be a significantly upgraded bullpen compared to last year. Any one of these guys could be a dominant set up man or a long reliever.
Medlen, Lowe, Vizcaino, Martinez, Oflahrity, Venters, Kimbrel
depth: Hoover, Varvaro
Our rotation of
Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Beachy, Minor to start the season.
with Teheran to come in for injury and the inevitable mid season trade of JJ or Hanson
That gives us two aces back and a lefty
depth: Delgado (Medlen)
In the field, we’re gonna see Bourn, Prado, Heyward, Chipper, Gonzalez/Pastornicky, Uggla, Freeman, McCann.
(Simmons is the bigger prospect, so they will let Pastornicky be a sub and fill in with Agonz)
That’s a great team
Wasn't a trade of JJ or Hanson mid-season
“inevitable” for 2011, too?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
At that point it really looked like we had something special going, then they both got hurt.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Oct 13, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we’d be lucky to get 3 million of Lowe’s contract, maybe 5, but there is no chance that someone eats half of that salary.
Which just proves that Cashman is a fool.
Lowe would win 15+ games with the Yankees. They would be getting him 6+ runs a game, and he would probably have a standout / comeback year. But the Yankees are fools. They would rather pay ARoid for the next 10 years, instead, etc.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Oct 13, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I the only one that wants to get rid of Matt Diaz? I don’t know what he’s going to get paid, but if it’s over 1M we can do better.
Kind of down on Hinske also.
Hell, just scrap the team and start over.
Post season depression is a bitch.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
I would like to see Wilkens Ramirez get a long look as the 4th OF / RH pinch hitter role.
Generally, I think the Braves have tended over the years to stick too long with gray, fading vets for bench, bullpen, and other roles and that we might benefit from a more energetic, youthful orientation.
Trade Lowe and everything else will fall in place
Of course it’s easier said than done, but FW can and will make it happen
Here is the staff i want to see
C Brian McCann
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Dan Uggla
3B Chipper Jones
SS Alex Gonzalez
LF Jose Constanza
CF Michael Bourn
RF Jason Heyward
SUPER UTILITY MAN Martin Prado
ACE Tim Hudson
- SP Tommy Hanson
- SP Brandon Beachy
- SP Mike Minor
- SP Randall Delgado OR Julio Teheran
MOP-UP GUY Cristhian Martinez
5-6 INNING GUY Derek Lowe
BULLPEN TEAM A
CL Craig Kimbrel
SU Eric O’Flaherty
7TH Anthony Varvaro
BULLPEN TEAM B
CL Jonny Venters
SU Kris Medlen
7TH Arodys Vizcaino
I dont have JJ on here because i want to see him traded for an upgrade somewhere possibly SS. I hate paying him millions to spend half of the season of the DL
If we turn Prado into a bench player for the sake of letting Constanza start
then my faith in the Braves FO will all but vanish.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
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