Top-5 Off-Season Questions For The Atlanta Braves: #2
by gondeee on Oct 10, 2011 10:23 AM EDT
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This is part two of a five part series of posts that will examine the most pressing questions for the Atlanta Braves this off-season.
Question Two: Which five starting pitchers should the Braves open 2012 with?
This is not going to be a "trash Derek Lowe" post, but we're not going to let Lowe off the hook either. Lowe was not good at pitching in any month after April last season -- a level of suck that culminated in an 8.75 ERA and an 0-and-5 record in September. He couldn't get anyone out, as opposing batters hit .373 against him in the season's final month.
Suffice to say that the Derek Lowe experiment in Atlanta has not worked. At all. Not even the one really good month in September of 2010. All that month did was buy him more time -- akin to Scott Proctor pitching three scoreless innings in an 18-inning game. But now we know for sure that we can't win with Lowe.
So when we talk about next year's starting rotation, Derek Lowe should not be in the conversation. Truly, if he could be, he should be sold to a Japanese team, or exiled to double-A like Kenshin Kawakami was. Unless the Braves want to take on another under-performing contract in return, the Braves are stuck with Lowe for one more year.
Beyond Lowe there was another problem with the 2011 starting pitching staff -- staying healthy. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson succumbed to nagging injuries during the season's second half. While JJ and Tommy put up 1.87 and 2.44 ERAs respectively in the season's first half, they posted ERAs of 5.88 and 8.10 in limited action during the second half. Whether it was the injures or not, the only redeeming factor for JJ and Tommy in the second half was that they were injured -- otherwise they might have rivaled Lowe for worst pitcher on the team.
Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy carried the staff in the second half, while Randall Delgado and Mike Minor proved they were both ready for permanent spots in the starting rotation. And here is where we come to the question of this post, which of the starting pitchers already mentioned should form the rotation next year? Oh, and don't forget about the kid who could be better than any of them, Julio Teheran. He led the International League in wins and (almost) ERA, and has little left to prove in the minor leagues. That's seven starting pitchers to fit into five spots (no, I'm not counting Lowe). There's also Kris Medlen, whose role is yet to be determined for next season, but who could also end up in the conversation for the rotation.
Teheran and Minor are the two young pitchers who should be ready to step in for a full season in the Majors. Each has made over 20 starts at triple-A, while Delgado has made only four. All three need to work on going deeper into games, and while that can be learned at the big league level, it can be learned with less adverse affects at the minor league level. So while each seem ready to be big league starters, there's still no reason to rush them or to clear spots in the existing big league rotation. As injuries to three of Atlanta's starters this past year have shown, it's a great luxury to have a pitcher waiting in the minors ready to step into the rotation.
Starting pitching is one of the most sought after commodities by any team. The Braves, flush with talented starters and in need of several additional pieces for next year's team (to be discussed in future posts), seem likely to trade one of their current starting pitchers.
Jurrjens and Hanson would be the two pitchers most likely to get moved. While both are coming off injuries in the second half, they each dominated during the season's first half, and there are plenty of teams who would take a chance on either pitcher. They are also the most likely to get moved due to their expected salary increases through arbitration this winter. The Braves should be able to afford both next year, but neither look likely to stay in Atlanta and sign long-term deals -- both pitchers are Scott Boras clients.
This is actually a good position for the Braves to be in -- they have tradable pitchers, but they don't have to trade them. Atlanta can sit and wait for the right deal and hopefully maximize their return. All the while knowing that they have a cadre of replacements ready to step in and fill the void.
Nevertheless, I predict we'll see one of either Jurrjens or Hanson traded this off-season. When you add up the money, the young pitchers ready to step in, and the team's need in other areas, the evidence is overwhelmingly there in favor of a trade. Add to that the Braves decision to have Jurrjens make a rehab start in the Instructional League even after the season was over, and you can see the team's desire to prove he was healthy going into the off-season.
In the comments, tell us which five pitchers you think will be in the Braves opening day starting rotation.
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My five
For the record, here are the five I think will be in the rotation to start 2012. This is also kind of who I want to be in there, so maybe that’s clouding my judgment.
1. Huddy
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Minor
5. Teheran
My belief is that Lowe starts in the bullpen, same with Meds. Either one can move to the rotation if needed, but the team needs to get the kids in there from day one. Jurrjens gets traded somewhere for some set of needs.
My five
I totally agree with your starting five plus Medlen and Lowe in the bullpen and JJ gets traded for a young OF. I would also add that Vizcaino starts the year in the AAA rotation and not the Atlanta bullpen. Plus, I think there’s a chance that Delgado edges out Teheran for the fifth spot. Could have a Minor/Beachy-like battle between RD and JT in spring training.
Wren
I’m going to revise my comments because I’m reminded that Frank Wren said last week that he wasn’t going to trade young pitching. I guess that includes JJ and Hanson especially since their value is low at the moment. So, my revised starting 5 would be:
1. Huddy
2. JJ
3. Hanson
4. Beachy
5. Minor
Teheran and Delgado start the year in AAA if everybody else is healthy.
That is the Starting 5.......
Definitely let Teheran and Delgado get some starts at Gwinnett. I would strongly consider bringing one of them up if there was an injury to the first 5. I’ve kinda of lost faith in Lowe’s ability. Let’s just see how he does out of long relief before we look at anymore starts (even if they are replacement).
Practically, we will probably lose either JJ or Hanson to injury (or trade for a good bat).
by pseudonymion on Oct 11, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s exactly what I was thinking for the starting lineup. I’m really happy for Beachy’s strong performance and hope he’ll become our Smoltz type starting pitcher.
Definitely move Lowe to the bullpen.
I’ve said all year that JJ will be moved by next year’s trade deadline. So Teheran might start the season off at AAA if JJ isn’t traded in the offseason.
And we still have Delgado waiting in the wings. Guess we could go 6 deep sometimes to give some starters some extra days off.
I just worry about bullpen being over worked again. Venters and Kimbrell unraveled a bit toward the end of the season because of that.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
my five
1. Huddy
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Medlen
5. Minor
I think Medlen should be the guy. Proven ability
I concur
That’s a good starting 5. People seem, in my opinion, to overlook the team’s winning % when Medlen starts. He should be in the rotation I think. But alas, he’ll probably be relegated to long-relief/spot starter duties…
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Oct 10, 2011 12:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Medlen is still an injury rish imo
therefore seeing work out of the bullpen should help him plus give us a steady option for 2/4 innings when needed.
by DustinSmith on Oct 10, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Medlen wasn't even that good as a SP
4.31 career ERA as a starter that struggles terribly his third time through the lineup. Not to mention his arm probably isn’t close to ready for handling 170-180 IP in a season like a starter needs to. Oh, and did I mention he’s never started for a full season and he’s already gone down with a torn UCL. Medlen is the exact definition of a guy who should be working out of the bullpen instead of starting. Just let him be a very good reliever and stay healthy as opposed to being a decent starter (with nowhere near the upside of the other young options) with a huge injury risk.
Especially with the abundance of starters. He would be perfect bullpen piece to help when the young starters can only go 5.
Medlen
Couldn’t agree more. He’s always projected as having a higher upside as a reliever. Only use him as a starter if you have no choice.
This is the question I have...
I know that Julio Teheran makes a lot of folks excited in the trousers, and I know he’s had outstanding numbers in the minors and a few decent starts in the majors…but why is it that I am more impressed by the stuff of Vizcaino, Delgado and Beachy?
I’m not trying to bash JT, but I did not see the 97mph fastball that was touted, and I saw a propensity to fall back on the changeup too much in the starts that i saw him make. If a kid has a great fastball like that, I want to see him pound that sucker in there and not nibble around all the time with a changeup.
Could be a maturation thing I guess.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Teheran
I think he’s the real deal but I think his minor league stats are concealing the fact that he needs more seasoning and development in the minors. One thing that stood out to me in AAA last year for him was that his strikeout rate dropped noticeably from the previous season. I think he’s going to be an awesome pitcher but really no need to rush him.
Curveball
I think he needs to work on the curve in AAA. That pitch needs to be a little sharper and mnore consistent before Teheran is a regular starter. If not, I think he may fail to reach his potential.
There is also a benefit to keeping Teheran in the minors for a couple of months, allowing the team to control him one more year.
Huddy
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Medlen / Lowe
by parish on Oct 10, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he’ll win you over.
Valued customer of Boris' Baseball Boutique
by VivaLosBravos on Oct 10, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
JT
After watching Teheran pitch in the majors and about 3 games on CSS. I’m not exactly jumping out of my pants for him. To me he seems like on the same level as Hanson. #2 guy but just not a Ace. I would like for him to get more K’s and attack the zone better and to improve his breaking pitch. I do love his changeup though! I also like Vizcanio stuff more than Teheran. I would love to see the Braves put him back in the Gwinnett rotation at the start of next year. As for my rotation it would be the same as Gondeee…
1. Hudson
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Minor
5. Teheran
With Vizcanio and Delgado in the AAA rotation and Medlen starting off as a reliever in the majors. I can also careless about Lowe. Just as long he isn’t starting for us. That will leave Jurrjens out via a trade for a SS or LF.
Tomahawk Chop The Competition
Remember how Fredi used Proctor last season? Just remove his name and insert Lowe there. Low-leverage, blow-out situations.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Except for all those times Fredi used Proctor in close games
yeah, totally.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
thanks for reminding me of that
ughhh!!
hey, look at the bright side…at least he served up a walk-off for the Rays that made Boston the biggest collapse in WC history (and not the Braves).
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Oct 10, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
He also helped our collapse. How many games did he blow for us? I doubt if Varvaro would have gotten his time before we would be in the playoffs right now
by PhuckthePhillies on Oct 10, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, again
we were out by one game, so pretty much everyone on the team is in some way responsible for our collapse.
But, Proctor’s part in it is remarkably frustrating, it’s true. :)
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Bullpen
I just decided to do my bullpen too…
CL. Kimbrel
SU. Venters
SU. EOF
MRP. Medlen
MRP. Varvarro, Gearrin or a lefty pick up via FA or Trade
MRP. Hoover
LRP. Martinez
Tomahawk Chop The Competition
I agree that hoover deserves a chance
Hopefully he excels in ST
by DustinSmith on Oct 10, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Good
I’m glad I’m not the only one that is a bit underwhelmed by JT so far when compared to the hype. Plenty of time to be won over though, I guess.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
I guess I’m the opposite cause I believe JT is unbelievable. Yes he struggled a little in the majors, but what 20 year old pitcher hasn’t?
God has to bruise you before he use you. So you'll be sensitive to his touch.
by ArmyITSpec on Oct 10, 2011 3:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i'm not writing him off
and i saw him pitch only a couple times. it was after a long season for him as well. but i had heard endlessly about his 97-98 mph fastball, and devastating changeup (i have to admit, love his change) but the fastball i saw was 92-93, maybe 94.
of course, he has time to grow stronger and maybe sustain the velocity better throughout the season. 97FB, with the change that he has, and professed location of those pitches is pretty sexy to think about. he does need a 3rd pitch as well though.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
There were 16 qualifying starters with a higher average FB velocity than Teheran
Averaging 93 MPH on your FB is big time velocity for a starting pitcher. Outside of Strasburg (who post injury actually averaged “only” 96), no one regularly sits 97-98.
As for his third pitch, the curve flashes plus, and was much more consistent his second go around the bigs, getting him swings and misses over 12% of the time on the pitch in September. To put that in perspective, Delgado gets swings and misses at just about 10% of each of his breaking pitches, and I don’t hear anyone hear complaining about his lack of a third pitch.
Verlander's average FB velocity was 95.0 MPH
Yeah, he touches 97-98 multiple times in a lot of his starts, but he certainly does not sit there. If you think he does, then you don’t understand the difference between sitting at a velocity and touching a velocity.
No.
The reason that hit fastball “sits” at 95.0 mph is because he throws two different fastballs that aren’t being differentiated by PitchFx.
His four-seamer sits in the high 90s and routinely breaks 100 mph while his two-seamer features more movement and sits in the low-to-mid 90s.
This is one area in which PitchFx hasn’t completely caught up to the in-game action, as far as being able to differentiate those pitches. Same is true of Ubaldo Jimenez, although his velocity tailed off significantly last year. He throws four different types of fastballs, none of which are recorded as anything except FB by PitchFx.
As for Teheran, he never broke 96 mph, according to PitchFx, which is just fine with me. Managers tend to coddle spot starters in their first outings and times with the team, tell them to just pitch within themselves, have a decent outing and give the team a chance to win. So it’s not surprising that Teheran didn’t just let it fly and potentially make a mistake that could end up in the bleachers. As he gets more experience, the velocity will sit and touch where it should.
In other words, there’s nothing to see here.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Except that Pitch F/X differentiates at least some of his 2 seamers
And that if you look at his game by game velocity he tops out between 97 and 98 in about half of his starts, just eyeballing it, which is basically what I said. He doesn’t sit 97-98 in the vast majority of his starts. Maybe he’ll have a few innings late in some starts (as he’s a guy who tends to gain velocity as he goes) where he sits there, but he doesn’t sit there routinely.
Exactly...
“At least some.”
PitchF/X still has some major flaws, and this is clearly one of them. He’s clearly not throwing his four-seamer at a 7:1 ratio.
The problem is that there is no human overseeing the data, pitch for pitch (which, tbh, would be basically impossible to do for the entire league). And, even if there were, you’d have to have an incredibly astute observer that has a strong knowledge of each pitcher’s repertoire. Things are miscategorized, especially in the case of someone like Verlander.
He can sit at 97 or thereabouts without issue. All you have to do is take a glance at his velocity charts, approximate 97mph, bring another window up to that level, and count the green dots to see he did so in about 15-18 starts throughout his career.
You also have to account for him taking speed off pitches purposefully. In gameplanning different teams, it may or may not be advantageous to bring it at that level. Some teams are better FB-hitting teams, etc. There’s also the issue of playing the same lineup 2-3 times/season. He has to mix it up.
But to say he can’t do it is just not paying attention to the details. He’s done it on several occasions.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 11, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Hudson
Jurrjens
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
Delgado was looking very ready, but like mentioned, on 4 AAA starts. Teheran has shown he is pretty much past AAA.
I think Jurrjens knee injury is more likely fixable than Hanson’s shoulder, considering the quirky delivery. I’ve always thought Jurrjens was more extendable than Hanson. Hanson is too easy to run on. Jurrjens grew up a Braves fan. Hanson is the better pitcher, but post-Huddy we need a vet, Hanson has FA written all over himself. I’d try to extend Jurrjens.
Medlen in the pen, Vizcaino and Minor starting in AAA, ready for spot starts.
Just my opinion.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Last sentence failure
Minor in rotation, Viz and Delgado in AAA ready for spot starts
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
JJ vs. Hanson
I agree with your comparison between Hanson and JJ. I think JJ would be cheaper and less of a risk long term than Hanson. The problem is that the timing and circumstances of the Braves rotation at the moment might force JJ out before Hanson. If they could trade Hanson right now I think they would.
I hadn't thought about that, but...
You may be right about the Hanson vs. JJ thing… Hanson’s shoulder problem is possibly going to be more of a chronic problem, and JJ might actually be less of a long-term risk.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I think the JJ injury is the more chronic of the two, but Hanson’s could potentially be much more catastrophic. I think that’s the big difference…knee injuries don’t typically disappear, but not too many people come back from blown-out shoulders.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
his MRI was clear and he’s now on a stretching and low impact conditioning program. so, his shoulder is not blown-out nor is there any substantial reason to expect he’s on the verge of a catastrophic blow-out.
His delivery mechanics alone are enough to suspect a future catastrophic injury.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 10, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Its not as much the delivery as the arm deceleration, at least IMO
I hate seeing guys who actively try to slow down there arm and then let it recoil as opposed to letting it naturally come to rest against the body after completely finishing the follow through.
Version
SP:
1. Hudson
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Minor
5. Jurrjens
RP:
1. Martinez – Long
2. Medlen
3. Lowe – GB Specialist
4. Venters
5. O’Flaherty
6. Kimbrel
7. Sherrill, Vavarro, Gearrin
I think Delgado will be traded during the offseason and then Jurrjens at the deadline when his value will be at it’s peak.
I don't ask for much but all I ask is that you to throw strikes.
by georgiadawgsfan on Oct 10, 2011 11:00 AM EDT reply actions
BEST PAID GB SPECIALIST...
But I agree, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Teheran is in place of JJ(probably be traded). And I think Vavarro has the 7th spot locked down for now. Did Gearrin get hurt last year or was he just sent down after a couple really rough outings?
#GoDawgs
I think
He was just sent back down when someone came off the DL and didn’t get a call back up
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Oct 10, 2011 12:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's
Actually a pretty killer bullpen… I like it!
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Oct 10, 2011 12:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And really… Lowe wasn’t a bad closer when he did that, so even as a Linebrink replacement, I would think he’d be useful to the Braves.
Okay, maybe not $15m useful, but this is a case of “making the best of it”.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Exactly...
You have to pay $15 mill regardless, put it where it will be best utilized for the team
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Oct 10, 2011 12:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm going to think a bit outside the box:
1 – Hudson
2 – Hanson
3 – Beachy
4 – Delgado
5 – Teheran
My belief – both JJ AND Minor will be traded this off-season for pieces and parts, or perhaps prospects (from a position player perspective), unless FW deals them together in a deal to get an impact bat (LF?). I, too, believe we’re stuck with Lowe, which means in order to acquire players, we will have to deal JJ and Minor. Bullpen will be Lowe, Medlen, Vavarro, Gearrin, EOF, Venters, and Kimbrel, with Vizzy starting the season in AAA.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
If FW refused to include Minor in the Bourn trade, why would he trade him for “pieces and parts”? I could see a scenario where Minor and Prado are both traded for a big impact LFer, but I’m not sure who that would be.
FWIW:
Huddy
Hanson
Minor
Beachy
Delgado
You'd think I was Travis Tritt struttin my FINE ASS on down to Florida
FW didn’t include Minor in the Bourn deal because he didn’t have to, but considering they have Minor 2.0 in AAA in Gilmartin, I think he’s expendable. Also, I don’t see Prado being traded, but rather have him as the super utility guy off the bench, if we’re able to pull off a trade for a left fielder. As far as who’s out there, it’s all going to depend on the deal that FW puts on the table. Ideally, the bat would be right-handed. So, yet again, you’ll hear the likes of Ryan Ludwick via trade or Josh Willingham (possibly Beltran, who I have no desire to acquire whatsoever, incidentally) via FA.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I’d rather trade Gilmartin then, as Minor is the closer/surer thing.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Wouldn’t you agree that Minor > Gilmartin in terms of trade value at this juncture?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes I certainly would (regardless of the quite valid point noted below). But I also see Minor as a necessary part of a great rotation for 2011.
Right now we can’t say that the Braves will have a great offense (based on 2011). We CAN say that the rotation is solid. But for 2012, Lowe is already out of that picture (at least for now). If you trade away Minor — or any Major League piece — we may have holes to fill. Add to that the injury risks that JJ and Hanson seem to be. Certainly that kind of problem bit us in September.
I’m happier now more than ever that Wren kept the ‘4 horseman’ intact at the trading deadlines. If you do opt to move one of these guys this winter, you’d better be stone cold certain that it’s an upgrade worth the depth risk you would introduce.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Can't trade Gilmartin...
…until August, unless he is a PTNL, which is tricky this far in advance as the Indians trade of Pomerantz showed—-the new organization won’t want him risking injury playing for us, so it would require he pretty much be shut down between the trade and August 10th or whatever we he can actually be moved. For a deadline deal, sure it is not big thing, but it won’t happen in the offseason barring a change in the rules in the CBA.
Why not keep them both? It would be awesome in the future to have 2 lefty starters
by PhuckthePhillies on Oct 10, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
have him as the super utility guy off the bench
I really think this would be a hard sell to Martin. “We know that you moved to LF, a position that you’d never played in MLB last year without saying a word… You’re an ultimate team player and a pretty good LFer. But now we’d like to cost you a shit-ton of money in arbitration next year. Can you be a bench player?”
I think the only way Martin isn’t in left next season is if Uggla/Chipper get hurt or he gets traded.
You'd think I was Travis Tritt struttin my FINE ASS on down to Florida
It may be a hard sell, but honestly, it’ll only be for 1 season. Once Chipper retires after the 2012 season, he starts at 3rd base.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s a hard sell, in that Martin doesn’t make the lineup card. Now, if you wanted to extend him after his team control has expired, that’s a different situation…but for now, if he’s needed to be a utility guy, he’ll be a utility guy.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Gilmartin hasn't made a start above low-A yet, so not sure where you're getting AAA from
Why don’t we let him actually prove something before we term him Minor 2.0?
Also, people need to look at the whole picture with Delgado as opposed to just looking at the few good starts he had in the majors. The guy struggled to a large extent in the minors this year. He clearly has things that he still needs to work on. There is no reason to just put him in the MLB rotation. If he looks ready there in the first half, then you can consider dealing off someone like Minor before the deadline.
JJ and Minor
for Kemp to play left field? That would be the type of player I would hope we would get for both of those.
Then you are smoking some really good crack. Come on now if you are going to make idle speculation at least make it feasible.
How is that not feasible?
Nobody knows what the dodgers are going to do with the mess of a ballclub they have. I would assume they might attempt to sell high on Kemp in order to start rebuilding. Granted it would take JJ/Minor/some other player probably.
We've had this conversation before.
The Dodgers aren’t going to move one of their franchise players (i.e. Kemp/Kershaw) without getting a ridiculous return. Even then, I don’t know if they could even do it. The current administration can make small moves, but something big like that would probably require a determination of who is actually currently in charge of the team. Unfortunately, there are at least four candidates: (1) the current administration; (2) the MLB overseer; (3) the state court divorce judge; and (4) the bankruptcy judge. No chance that mess gets straightened out enough to move a star player.
If the Dodgers are going to part with anyone, it will be Ethier, not Kemp. Ethier, as much as I think could help us, is a lefty. We have too many LH bats as it stands right now.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
luxury of pitching surfiet
My thought while agreeing with most of these posts is to
have a second tier of set up and closer who also slide up
from middle relief. Medlen and Viz could fill these slots nicely.
Kimbrel and Venters are headed for injury/dead arms
unless the set up/closer paradigm is modified.
I is what I is and I'm sticking to my story
Wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a pair of 25/30-save guys.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Two sets of relievers
I’ve been thinking that with the young pitchers likely to make up most of the rotation, we need to be able to count on the bullpen for 3-4 innings just about every game. One way to do that would be to have two sets of relievers who can alternate days. They all need to be pitchers who can pitch a whole inning against any lineup; no room for ROOGY/LOOGY pitchers here.
Set 1:
Lowe
O’Flaherty
Medlen
Venters
Set 2:
Martinez
Hoover
Varvaro
Kimbrel
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I will admit...
this would cause a big problem in that I don’t think the Braves can afford to carry 13 pitchers. Too many question marks among the starting eight between Chipper’s health, working Pastornicky in, the situation in LF, and needing to find a way to give McCann more rest.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
It could still work
A 4 man bench…
Ross C
Prado 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF
Constanza LF, CF, RF
Just need a SS capable of playing other positions
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Its just a terrible idea
You’re basically left with almost no flexibility in terms of pinch hitting, just so you can make an unnecessary division between two sets of relievers. You know, instead of just actually being intelligent about reliever usage.
I don't disagree with you actually
I’m just thinking about the number of innings the bullpen will have to pitch; there may need to be some rotating of guys in and out of AAA to keep the bullpen fresh. As I see it, the bench depends on whether or not we trade for a LF. If so, the bench is Ross backing up McCann at C, Pastornicky backing up Gonzalaz at SS (this flips later in the season), Hinske backup up LF, RF, and 1B, and Prado backup up all other positions. If we don’t trade for an LF, we have a Diaz/Hinske platoon in LF, and which ever one isn’t starting that day has the fourth bench spot.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Starters…Huddy, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Teheran
Long man…Medlen (can stretch out to start)
RH…C-Mart, Kimbrel, Gearrin
LH…EOF, Jonny Badass, random LOOGY
Start Delgado and Vizzy in the rotation in Gwinnett. Hoover and Bullock will likely be in the bullpen as well, and Marek will be recovering toward the latter half of the year.
by TBuzz on Oct 10, 2011 12:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hudson
Hanson
Jurrjens
Beachy
Medlen
unless JJ gets traded, then
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Medlen
Minor/Delgado/Teheran
I think if JJ stays, he will likely be shopped around before the trade deadline, as long as he is healthy and effective. If he is traded at deadline, the second list is likely what you will see, with Delgado/Teheran/Mnor winning the spot based on how well they’re doing in AAA. Medlen was doing very well before he got hurt and has all winter to build arm strength. Maybe he starts the season in the bullpen, but I gotta believe the guy will be used in the rotation again. Good problem to have, too much pitching! If we move Lowe and JJ in the offseason, that would help some of the bottleneck, would hate to see him go though.
"I Farted" - Me, everday
Never going to happen but my rotation and bullpen would be....
Rotation
1. Hudson (RH)
2. Hanson (RH)
3. Beachy (RH)
4. Minor (LH)
5. Teheran (RH)
Bullpen
Long / 2+ inning relief: Medlen (RH), Martinez (RH)
Mid / 1 inning relief: Vizcaino(RH), O’Flaherty (LH), Varvaro (RH)
Set up: Venters (LH)
Closer: Kimbrel (RH)
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
The rest
Trade Lowe for any kind of value or, if impossible to trade, put him in the bullpen as our blow out / big lead pitcher.
Trade Jurrjens for something(s) nice and shiny.
Start Vizcaino and Delgado in AAA and put them on standby in case of injury or non-performance in the rotation.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Oct 10, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
never mind Vizcaino is one of our BP guys at MLB
I am not sure how his arm will hold up as a starter…
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Oct 10, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody buying into Delgado yet?
Me either, I guess:
SP:
1. Huddy
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Minor
5. Medlen
I bought him (above), but I would imagine another few starts in AAA would be beneficial, as he’s only had 4 of them.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
this
People aren’t buying into him because he isn’t ready yet, not because of his talent level.
Honestly, I put him in the rotation for 2012. That’s only assuming that we trade BOTH JJ and Minor this off-season. If either one of them stays, he starts in AAA.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Use him like we did with Minor last year… keep him on standby in Gwinnett and call him up for spot starts.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
trade minor?
We need a lefty in a rotation.
Huddy
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Delgado
Why everyone has Teheran starting out in the rotation is beyond me. I know his AAA numbers are sick and he has nothing else to prove but he needs more seasoning in the minors. Not too mention Delgado has straight up outpitched at the big league level.
In baseball, you're supposed to sit on your ass, spit tobacco, and nod at stupid things. Perfect life might I add.
by HeywardFTW! on Oct 10, 2011 12:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
RE: JT
As stated in the article, JT has nothing left to prove in the minors. He basically tore apart AAA. The only reason to start him in AAA would be to stretch him out, inning-wise.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Teheran
Minor League stats do not indicate if a guy is ready or not. In any event, since you believe in them so much did you realize Teheran’s strikeout rate went significantly down in AAA last year from the previous year?
How do you expect him to continue to improve
If he can just go out and keep doing the same thing he has done in AAA to dominate?
As for his K rate going down, his FIP was still elite (and better than it was in AA last year) because of the low BB rate and K rate.
Thats a good question
But I wouldn’t worry about it until he’s had another 100-150 innings in AAA. He’ll be 21 next year and still needs to build up his innings not to mention work on the command of his offspeed pitches.
The issue is that he can just pound the zone in AAA without worrying about command
When you reach a certain point, you’re not going to continue to improve without facing the best competition out there. I personally believe that Teheran has reached that point. If he has some struggles in the majors, so be it. He can go back to AAA if necessary with a much better idea of what he needs to work on.
And since this was all in response to a post that had Delgado in the MLB rotation, I would point out that he has a lot more to work on in AAA than Teheran does. Yeah, Delgado had a pretty ERA in 35 MLB innings, but he clearly struggled with his command if you watched him and the underlying numbers were less than impressive. Considering the fact that he had his fair share of struggles in both AA and AAA this past season, he seems like a much better candidate to start the season working on things in the minors.
Good points about Teheran
And I don’t disagree about Delgado either. He could definitely use more seasoning in the minors. I guess my thinking is that I don’t believe the Braves will trade JJ or Hanson just yet. Therefore, there’s no need to push Beachy or Minor out of the rotation to make room for Teheran. If they do trade JJ or Hanson then let Delgado and Teheran battle for the 5th spot. Like Wren said last week, you never know from season to season which young pitcher is ready to take that next step.
I think the issue is his stuff
Delgado has pitched great and he has pitched intelligently, but he does not have a true KO pitch. Teheran has better stuff and has a great KO pitch and he absolutely dominated at AAA all season long. I think his first couple of starts were just him being nervous. The way he pitched against the Mets in his last start was indicative of his true self – and that was awesome!!
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Oct 10, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
You realize Delgado struggled in the minors right?
If there is anyone who could use more seasoning, its him. Don’t let 35 MLB innings cause you to ignore his 139 MiLB innings. Even in the majors, you could see that his command clearly still needs work. Once batters get a chance to see him, things will also get a lot more difficult.
I’ll be really sad if Moylan isn’t brought back.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
I don’t think you’ll be sad. Whether he’s in the ’pen or in the rotation, Meds will be a valuable commodity for the Braves next season.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah…whoops…this joint needs an edit button.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 11, 2011 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Delgado
Martinez, Lowe, Medlen, Venters, O’ Flaherty, Moylan and Kimbrel
Teheran and Vizcaino can go back down to AAA and we can have this same conversation next year. JJ has to be the one to go. He’s in line for a crazy big drop off and I’m not sure of his arbitration issue but he can’t be inexpensive in the next few seasons. Dump him for some Low A tools and hope for the best.
TV Journalist Chris Hanson is a cockblocker
There is very little chance Delgado starts next year in the rotation
With how little AAA experience he has, the Braves will stick him back in AAA to start the season to work on some things they undoubtedly saw in his starts. That’s not to say he won’t be in the majors starting during the year because he almost assuredly will be at some point.
6 man rotation!
why isn’t this being discussed more?
1. hudson
2. hanson
3. jj
4. beachy
5. minor
6. tehran
Just a ?, why would an mlb team trade for jj now without seeing him plug 3 starts of 6 innings or more?
As for Hanson, why would we trade our closest thing to an “ace” in our young arms unless the haul includes an ace or an MVP candidate?
start with a six man rotation until an offer comes across that we can’t turn down(ellsbury, kemp, KING Felix)…adjust mid season and we effectively saved 16 to 20 innings for the second half…
My Votes
1. Huddy
2. Hanson
(These two give us the best chance to win now. If we lose Hanson and JJ to free agency, bad us. I’m willing to lose one though to win next year)
3. Beachy
4. Minor
(Terrific upside. Future #2 an #3 rotation stockers — again, guys we can either keep or deal for good pieces in the future)
5. Medlen
I support trading JJ for OF or another young SS (I don’t believe the Moustakas rumor). I think the Pastronicky thing is 50-50 on future success so building middle IF depth in the system would be decent. If we could get a young, controllable replacement level LF, I’d be content and feel we maxed him out.
As for the pen, we’re so deep, it’s incredible…
With how deep we should be next year...
fredi will be sure to give venters and kimbrel plenty of rest
It appears Kris Medlen may be the most overrated player on the roster
Seriously, he is not a starting pitcher. He wasn’t great in the role, he had the exact sort of issues that a guy who should be relieving will have (trouble getting through a lineup 3 times), and he has never proven that he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season.
they are the same type of pitcher
except JJ has a bit more aura of gravitas because of the way he handles himself.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
i wouldn't say that
medlen’s value has yet to be determined over the course of a year…but the flexibility he provides(not only with keeping vizcaino and possibly even varvaro down in the minors honing secondary pitches) with both depth and specialty (we will now have up to 4 people we can send in to get a lefty out), its hard to say that he is the most overrated. If anything, Prado and JJ are the most hyped pieces that seem to be overrated…lets just hope that they net something of greater value next year
Idk
I have a hard time faulting prado for any short comings he has hitting because of all the change we keep putting him through. That being said…if we get an impact bat in LF then he will most likely end up splitting time backing up in LF and 3B
Medlen is a very good reliever
The fact that people actually think he’s earned a spot in the starting rotation is insane however. He has a career 4.31 ERA as a starter and he’s never gone a full season as a starter. People want him to be more than he is for whatever reason. He’s a very nice piece to have around, but people want him to be more than he is.
Medlen's sample size as an MLB starter is very small.
People gripe about using Delgado’s ERA as a starter in the majors over 35 innings, and they are right. The same applies to Medlen, however, who has had only 18 starts in the majors (102.1 IP), with a very good K/BB of 3.00. His minor league numbers at AAA (also in a very small sample size of 37 IP) were video game numbers that make Tehran’s look bad. In the bigger overall sample of all of his minor league numbers, Medlen had a teriffic K/9 of 10.4 and BB/9 of 2.0 for a K/BB of 5.16. Now he wasn’t a starter the entire time in the minors, but his K/BB as a starter in the minors was still well north of 4.0.
Is Medlen the obvious best choice for the rotation? No, but it isn’t that clear at all. Medlen has never gone a full season as a starter, but neither had Beachy until this year. And few of the candidates beyond Hanson, Huddy and JJ have had a season with a full major league load of innings.
As for who makes the rotation—beyond Huddy, Hanson and JJ, who will be in if they make the team, and Lowe who Wren has already announced is out, I don’t think it matters because will be use different options at different times, and who is starting in August is no less important than who is starting in April.
You completely glossed over the injury worries with Medlen though
The main point is that you can use him out of the pen (which he’s much better suited to being primarily a two pitch guy) and not have to worry about his workload causing another UCL injury that would pretty much be a career ender for him. I just don’t see what there is to gain by starting him.
but players rarely get TJ surgery, then need another TJ surgery in the immediate or even near future.
the damage he did to his elbow was the result of years of pitching. he should be good to go for several more years at least.
unless Mike hampton is his cousin or something. shudder
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
That's not necessarily true...just ask Jose Rijo about his 5 Tommy John surgeries
Its just that most guys who need two TJS in close succession to one another never make a name for themselves in the majors before or after the injuries. And most guys in Medlen’s situation, where they blew out their arm before proving they could handle a starter’s workload, aren’t put back in the same situation to risk another injury, which makes the odds look better than they actually are if we attempt starting him again. Besides, it’s not just in the immediate or near future. The success rate of a second TJS is something in the neighborhood of 20%-30% IIRC, regardless of how long after the first it is. There is no reason to even risk Medlen’s arm starting when there is essentially no upside over the other options.
But is starting necessarily more injury risking...
…than relieving? I’ve heard guys argue both. And if Meds is good out of the pen, you know he’ll be used 95 times a year, lol.
If you've always been a starter your entire career I could maybe see the argument
But for a guy like Medlen that spent a great deal of his professional career as a reliever, I would definitely think that being a reliever would be less of an injury risk.
I agree
that he hasn’t shown he can handle a starter’s workload. He may be overrated a bit, but that’s because he pitched well when our rotation was falling apart. People are going to remember that. I don’t think he should be starter because we have better options, but he does have the capability to be a solid starting pitcher.
My View
1. Hudson
2. Hanson
3. JJ
4. Beachy
5. Minor
I want to see Teheran get more seasoning in the minors. I believe that we keep both Hanson and JJ and trade one of them at the All-Star Break.Viz goes back to AAA as a starter. Kris Medlen stays in the bullpen but can also spot start if need be.
He literally ate AAA and spit it out already
what more do you want?
+this
a comparison could be levied that he had a better year than Freeman did 2 years ago at AAA…as such, the braves brought freeman up last year because he wouldn’t grow at that level…in fact, tehran will only loose value if he is in AAA…until he is smacked around the field, we may have to accept that he won’t be a high strike out guy at this level. but, as we saw with beachy, when the secondary pitches are on his ceiling is as an “ace”…
Teheran needs to be in the majors
for the simple reason that we need to keep challenging him so that he can keep improving. AAA would not be challenging him and really wouldn’t help him much in any way. The only way it would help is the FO in that it would help us control Teheran for more time.
Here we go...
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Jurrjens
Lowe to the bullpen.
JT and Delgado continue to develop in AAA until injuries or lack of production arise.
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Oct 10, 2011 1:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
My view
I do not like the idea of not having JJ or Hanson in a year or two. Considering Hudson is at the tail end of his career, we need veteran pitchers in their prime to be our aces. In a year or so I don’t think minor/teheran/delgado or any of the youngsters will be as fully polished as Hanson. I think they can be good but they will be young, we need a veteran in there and by that time, Hanson will be. I do agree that we could/should trade JJ. He is a boras client and a FA after 2012, with our abundance of SP there’s no way we sign him so I’m all for trading him if that means upgrading elsewhere and having some money to lock down Hanson. Not that it matters but Hanson is a farm system guy, JJ came from Detroit so it would be nice if he could stay with the braves/ hometown discount. With that being said Id put our rotation at…
1. Huddy
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Minor- we need a lefty and he as shown enough that he belongs in bigs
5. Medlan
I don’t see what Lowe will bring to us in the bullpen. What former starting pitchers get moved to the bullpen and have success? Any time he had success this year was after he gets in a grove in the middle innings, he always gets rocked early. So coming out of the bullpen to get people out does not sound like it will be successful.
Jurrjens won't hit FA until after 2013
As for Lowe, you realize he spent multiple seasons early in his career as a successful reliever right? Not much reason to think he couldn’t adapt back to that role.
And Medlen (at least spell his name right) has no business in the opening day rotation.
good point
I did not know that lowe started as a reliever but now that makes more since to have him in the bullpen.
As for JJ not being a FA until after 2013, where do you get info on contracts. cot’s baseball contracts is unofficial.
..
Teheran can get switched out for medlan if he is ready and medlan in the bullpen. Delgado needs a full season at AAA.
I’d rather have Viscaino in the pen, not sure if he is a future starting pitcher.
Hanson
No way in hell he gives a hometown discount. He has refused to sign his contract twice already because he wanted more money. 2010 and 2011 he had to be unilaterally renewed. Hanson is a FA in waiting.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
hanson
With a couple notable salaries coming off the books, we don’t have a shot at resigning him? mclouth, lowe, chipper…those contracts will be gone by the time Hanson is a FA.
is it just me
or have any of you perceived a bit of an attitude problem with hanson?
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Anything is possible
But with Hanson’s refusal to sign his non-arbitration pay raise contracts, he doesn’t seem too interested in anything but big bucks. If the Braves out-offer the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox, they can keep him. But I think he’ll be a FA going after big $$.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
will we have the big bucks ?
Contracts are coming off the books if im not mistaken. Mclouth, lowe, chipper..
Right but everyone else is going to be getting more expensive in the near future
McCann will eventually need a new deal. Heyward is only one more year away from arbitration. Hanson will hit arbitration next year. We have to figure out what to do in CF. Etc.
I don't know
A lot will happen between now and then. We could sign or trade for high $$ players, the team could go thru an ownership change, extensions/contracts could be offered to Bourn, McCann, Prado or Heyward.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
yet
people want to trade JJ when he would probably be easier to sign long term
Hanson is a better pitcher
I understand folks preferring Hanson to Jurrjens, but to me, the smart move would be try to extend Hanson, if he says no, try Jurrjens. If Jurrjens signs, trade Hanson.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
What former starting pitchers get moved to the bullpen and have success?
I seem to remember this Eckersly guy that did okay out of the pen. This Kerry Wood guy had a couple decent seasons.
Oh yeah, Mariano Rivera was also a starter at the beginning of his career.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Not the best comparisons
Rivera was a starter for one year and did not do very well. The rest of the his career he was in the pen.
Kerry Wood is a strikeout pitcher so he naturally could go to the pen. Whereas Lowe is not but we will see if he has success in the pen like it looks like he did in the early 2000s
Never saw Dennis pitch but that looks like a good example.
Who was comp'ing??
That wasn’t the question. The question was which former starting pitchers got moved to the bullpen and had success, not which Lowe-like starting pitchers got moved to the bullpen and had success.
If you don’t like the answer you got, ask a more specific question.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Ummm...
There was one guy. He used to play for the Braves. What was his name? John something I think.
Lead off walks usually lead to runs, unless they don't. -Joe Simpson
If you don't like the way the Atlanta Braves are playing, then you don't like baseball. -Chuck Tanner
oh please
comparing smoltz to lowe. Smoltz has the competitive fire of no other pitcher I’ve seen.
I’m sold on the move for lowe to the pen now seeing he has had some success earlier in his career but comparisons to these other pitchers are no where close to his level
also
Smoltz was moved to bullpen b/c of an injury not because he sucked…like lowe…totally different scenario.
By no means
was I comparing Smoltz to Lowe. Thats like comparing Nascar to my car. I just didn’t see anyone else mention him as a starter that had success in the bullpen. Which was kind of suprising to me
Lead off walks usually lead to runs, unless they don't. -Joe Simpson
If you don't like the way the Atlanta Braves are playing, then you don't like baseball. -Chuck Tanner
Rocker
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
You say that sarcastically...
but he actually fits.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rocker001joh
87 starts there in the minors..
http://sportsandgrits.com/
^
could be, i can get that kind of vibe from him that hes not sold out on the whole braves/team baseball and wants money.
I like the posted rotation above mine. If we dont have a trade.
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Jurrjens
Now that is a killer rotation.
Hanson current contract
ok so i get JJ’s situation.
what is hanson’s arb/ FA status?
Nobody knows
Hanson might be a Super Two, getting 4 years of arbitration starting this off season. If he’s not designated as Super Two, he be arb eligible in 2013, 14 and 15, FA before 2016.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
He's unlikely to be Super Two, but I guess it is possible.
We should know by now since the season is over, shouldn’t we? I don’t think playoffs count for anyone’s service time.
My rotation
Hudson
Jurrjens
Beachy
Minor
Teheran/Delgado compete for 5th spot.
Hanson is to be traded, he has zero interest in staying long-term, so get rid of him for max value.
Bullpen: you’ll need 3 long-men with so many young starters
Lowe
Medlen
C-Mart These three can be used in high leverage situations also, which is a plus, no Proctor/Linebrinks here
Short Men:
Kimbrel
Venters
EOF
Ascenio/Gearrin
Vizcaino and Hoover to AAA as starters, convert to BP if needed.
How exactly do you know Hanson has no interest in staying?
"If you go out to a bar, pick up a chick, take her home, but can't close the deal, we used to call that "Calling Dan Kolb in for relief."-Talking Head
fwiw: a lot of people malign
JJ saying he’s lucky, his babip is unsustainable, etc and so forth….
but do you recall how he ate up miguel cabrera, and the rest of the hitters in his inning at the ASG?
now, JJ is NO MADDUX…less movement, less control, less brain, but the similarity exists and i’m sure there would have been some that said Maddux’ babip was unsustainable as well early on.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
I agree with you.
He is definitely smart, but I’m not willing to put him on a par with Maddux cognitively. But, hitters often got frustrated with themselves for not hitting Greg, like ‘how can this guy with an 89mph fastball miss the meat of the bat just enough every time?’. Well as we all know, he did with location, movement and changing speeds, not strikeouts (although he did have a few good K seasons). in that respect, statistically, he should have had a higher overall BAA, BABIP, but that never really materialized until well after his prime.
What am I saying? Maybe JJ just has the ability to by and large miss the fat part of the bat by location, movement and changing speeds. That, along with being a smart pitcher perhaps makes him simply pretty good, and not purely lucky.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
My 5
Hudson
Hanson
Minor
Medlan
Lowe
I think Jj and Beachy both get traded to maximize there value and Lowe comes to spring training and wins a spot with a very short lease if he has a good 1st month trade him for whatever we can get and put Tehran in the #5 spot similat to the Glavine/Hanson situation when he came up
by AUbar07 on Oct 10, 2011 3:09 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Top 5 Starting Pitchers for Atlanta Braves
1. Tim Hudson Veteran of staff with a 16-10 W-L record 3.22 ERA a Complete game.33GS
2. Jair Jurrgens 13-6 W-L 2.96 ERA 23 GS 2 complete games
3. Tommy Hanson 11-7 W-L 22 GS 3.60 ERA
4. B. Beachy 7-3 25 GS 3.68
5. M. Minor 5-3 15Gs 4.14, J. Teheran 1-1 3GS 19.2 IP 5.03 ERA , R. Delgado 1-1 7GS 35 IP 2.83 ERA
Also if Derek Lowe isn’t Traded , Released, Etc. His record was 9-17 34 GS187 IP 137 Strikeouts 5.05 ERA 1.51 Whip 70 BB.
Possible Free Agents who would make a Great 3rd, 4th or 5th Starter if not 1st, or 2nd Starter are Mark Buehle 13-9W-L 205.1IP , Bruce Chen 12-8 record, Aaron Harang 14-7 Javier Vasquez 3.69 ERA 49th in MLB.com stats. 40th in Strikeouts162. C.J. Wilson 16-7 wins and losses 11th strikeouts 206.
no to chen, harang or vazquez for me.i would love buerhle though. dependable innings eater, great competitor, and lefty, with postseason credentials.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
and as we've all seen, he can field his position lol
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
No to any FA pitchers
We do not need to even look at free agent pitching. We got the youngsters.
Seriously? Isn’t anyone going to blow this guy up for using W-L records to determine how good pitchers are?
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 11, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Bad contract for Lowe
who exactly is out there that might fit that sort of undesirable contract swap?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
The name that jumps out at me is Chone Figgins.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 10, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
That would certainly be a good option if he'd waive his no-trade clause
I’d assume we’d have to throw in some sort of prospect as well though.
Id take either or in a second
Figgins had 101 walks 2009 : D!!!
Id think that figgins would be easier to get than Hunter considering Hunter’s stats still look good for an aging OFer. 20+ homers and .260 average. Id take that if I was an Angels fan.
Even if we went after one of these we’d have to throw in some kind of mid tier prospect I would think…thoughts?
What other players would be in this category?
Figgins has been horrible since 2009 as well, and has potentially a couple more years after that. I don’t know why you’d want to spend more money than Lowe over a longer period of time on a player that’s proven to be significantly worse over the past two seasons.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 10, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
didn't know figgins contract
If figgins is owed more then i would not want the move either. I just figured he was getting less money than 15 million. My mistake.
Figgins has $17 million left.
Over two years. He has a vesting option for 2014, but that is based on 600 plate appearances in 2013, so that isn’t going to happen. If Figgins gave us anything we needed and the M’s kicked in $1 million, it might make sense. However, since he doesn’t play short and we already have Prado who can play OF/3B/2B, I am not sure what Figgins gives us.
He can give us negative WAR. Outside of that, I’m not entirely sure what he’s good for, either.
The option vests at 600 PA, but bear in mind that Chipper’s last contract year is 2013. If he decides to play and later goes down to injury, and someone else gets injured (both sit in the “very possible” realm of probability), those PAs could rack up quickly. If the Braves have those injuries and sit Figgins, he could file a grievance and win it pretty easily. The whole scenario isn’t likely, but is certainly possible.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Oct 11, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Prado redundancy for when Chipper goes down?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 11, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
The Angels are overloaded with OFs though
it’s not like they need more starters, but they have more than enough OFs.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I just looked, and literally the only one I saw that made much sense for both teams was Figgins. And I’d pass on that one, so hard.
Unfortunately, there’s not a bad contract SS outside of Derek Jeter that has a relatively short contract at too many dollars. As for LF, there was Carlos Lee, who won’t move (on or off the field) and Hunter, but both have full no-trades. Everyone else has too many years or too much money.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
why not figgins?
Could platoon in Left with prado? Is a SB threat and probably fields great for his position. Also like I noted he has had a year with a very high walk total, maybe he can find his patience again.
Bad contract
Swap Lee for Derek Lowe? I’m guessing the Astros would say no on that one.
10/5 guy so he could decline
And honestly I’d rather have Lowe in the bullpen than Lee on the bench, especially since Lee earns more money.
Lee
Had a nice OBP last year. Lowe had a nice nothing.
Where would Lee play though?
His defensive metrics were terrible in LF until last year and obviously 1B is taken. I will admit that I didn’t realize he bounced back so well offensively last year after his dismal 2010 season, but I could easily see him falling back to that level.
And despite everyone’s complaints, Lowe’s underlying numbers last year were just fine. I think he could clearly be a solid asset out of the bullpen that could potentially step into the rotation if injuries force the issue. Personally I’d take that over Carlos Lee.
Me too...
Pitching depth played a huge role in this season, and will probably do the same next year. I’d rather have him around in the event of METEOR.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Lee/Lowe
Fair enough. But, I don’t see the Braves keeping Lowe for the bullpen. I think he gets moved at some point even if that means eating most of the contract. Wren hedged his bets when asked about moving Lowe to the pen. Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, and Medlen and perhaps Gilmartin later in the season will provide the Braves rotation depth.
Doubtful that Vizcaino can provide late season rotation depth because of innings limits
Gilmartin hasn’t pitched above low-A at this point outside of one AFL start, so let’s not assume he’ll follow the Mike Minor path (as much as fans want to see the similarities, Minor was a much, much stronger prospect when drafted).
I’ve made my thoughts on Medlen clear. I don’t think he’s all that much better than Lowe as a starter (if he is at all), and it brings in the possibility of injury which just doesn’t seem worthwhile to me.
I personally think at least one of Teheran or Delgado will end up in the rotation anyway, so that would leave us with one guy I would put in the rotation over Lowe in case of injury, and as we saw this year, one backup usually isn’t enough.
Lowe has a nice Porsche.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
…not to mention a nice BAC with it.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Oct 11, 2011 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Did nobody watch that arrest video?
Geez.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I'm pretty sure he's made it clear he will decline any move
and is not leaving Houston.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
The rotation will be
Hudson
Hanson
Jurrjens
Beachy
Minor
Lowe is going to be traded during the offseason, I just really get the feeling Wren is going to pull some triggers this offseason.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Oct 10, 2011 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
Yep
Lowe is as good as gone. Worse case scenario, they release him during spring training and eat the whole contract.
That's just dumb
Why in the world would you just flush that money down the toilet? His underlying numbers were just fine last year. He just struggled with BABIP and LOB%, which are both subject to a lot of variance in single year samples. Why not keep him around as insurance and/or a bullpen piece if you’re going to pay his salary anyway?
If his numbers are so great
Then, they should be able to trade him.
They can depending on how much salary they would eat
Either way, it would be ridiculously stupid to just flush his 15 MM price tag down the toilet and risk the chance that his ERA regresses towards his FIP/xFIP next year for another team. If he provides any sort of value to the team it makes more sense to keep him.
I'd like to at least see how he does during Spring training
See if he can possibly build up any trade value…..I’m sure it’s no surprise that the Braves would like to be rid of him though…
I believe that anyone who thinks Kris Medlen will make the starting rotation over Julio Teheran is terribly wrong.
Medlen is a future reliever IMO. I am a huge fan of Medlen but he is a very small guy who could have durability issues in the future. He also doesn’t seem to have near as high of a ceiling as any of the young guys. With that said, he could very well be a dominate reliever as early as next year.
Teheran absolutely dominated AAA this past year and has nothing at all left to prove in the minor leagues. He will gain nothing by starting the year in the minors. Randall Delgado definitely got hot down the stretch and pitched great baseball for us, but he has only made 4 starts in AAA and hasn’t proven to be ready in the minor leagues. His season ERA was around 4 this year and he could use some more seasoning in the minors.
With that said, their will be another battle for the number 5 spot in the rotation again this year. Although I believe Delgado should be sent to AAA to begin the season, he pitched so well down the stretch that he deserves the opportunity to win that job. I think Teheran will win the job and our opening day starting 5 will be
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
Although his value has greatly dropped since the first half, I believe that JJ will be traded in the offseason for prospects/ ML ready shortstop. He will become more expensive next year before hitting free agency after the 2013 season. Hanson is the better pitcher with much greater upside and he should be kept, injury concerns or not.
by K.Brown on Oct 10, 2011 5:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Ranking last year's starters by SIERA...
Here are the 2011 major-league SIERA numbers of the guys you mentioned in this post:
Kris Medlen 2.40
Brandon Beachy 2.79
Tommy Hanson 3.18
Tim Hudson 3.62
Derek Lowe 3.80
Mike Minor 3.82
Jair Jurrjens 4.63
Randall Delgado 5.30
Julio Teheran 5.60
Now I’m not trying to make arguments about small-sample guys like Medlen, Delgado, or Teheran. But I think there’s an argument to be made that Lowe deserves a repeat stint in the rotation. He was a solid low-four ERA pitcher in 2010, and the only things that changed into 2011 were his BABIP and his strand rate, which are both flags of luck rather than skill.
If Lowe can be traded for some salary space, I’m all for it, but the notion that he needs to be kicked to the curb at all costs doesn’t quite make sense to me.
well part of it is we have a GB heavy guy in a sinkerballer like lowe
look at how awful our infield D is. Chipper has almost no range anymore, same for Uggla. Freddie despite having great hands and the kid can pick anything out of the dirt apparently also has almost no range. The only defender in the infield with any kind of range is Gonzo, who may or may not be back. It would perhaps be in our best interest to move away from the heavy GB pitcher to pitchers more geared toward strikeouts (and flyballs, I’d rather let Prado/Bourn/Heyward run down flyballs in the outfield, that is a lot of range)
"Don't put off til tomorrow what you can put off til the day after tomorrow." -Mark Twain
by SouthernPanther on Oct 10, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I completely see your point, but I still think Lowe’s BABIP is going to regress from .327 back to the .307 level where it was in 2010. And the decrease in strand rate is just a situational issue…it’s not as if the infield defense ought to be getting (even) worse when there are runners on base. I think the strand rate will regress as well. I also don’t see how Hudson (also an extreme groundballer) doesn’t have issues with this.
Basically, I think you’re absolutely right, but there are still lots of factors in this equation that I don’t understand. And I’d rather take my chances with Lowe in front of that defense than trade him for some even worse contract.
he was also not very good in 2010, but his month of September made everyone forget.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
OT: What are the Braves planning on doing with Redmond?
He did well this year in AAA but the Braves seem to not have any plans for him and he’s just getting older.
He's AAA fodder...
…and will hang around until he leaves as a minor league free agent.
I dont think we move any of our pitchers in the off season
I think the rotation will be…
1. Huddy
2. Hanson
3. JJ
4. Beachy
5. Minor
I think that Wren will attempt to get a slight increase in salary and use that plus the McLouth and KK money (after arb raises of course) to plug our holes. What holes he plugs is another question considering we technically dont have any open spots unless Prado or Heyward get bumped to the bench, AAA, or a super utility role. Wren likes his pitching depth and I think he will actually try to extend one of either Hanson or JJ based on this next years performance. Wren wants to build another pitching dynasty and you cant do it without holding on to your good pitchers. We shall see.
We have holes to fill even if Prado and Heyward are both everyday outfielders
SS, utility infielder, and the bullpen come to mind – the bullpen may be filled internally, but based on what I know about FW, I imagine we’ll go out of our way to bring in a veteran arm again this year.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I don't know about that
Wren himself said Varvaro and Martinez impressed him. Add Lowe and Medlen to O’Ventbrel and you have a full pen with Hoover, Gearrin, Ascencio and eventually Vizcaino and Marek available.
If Lowe gets traded, all bets are off, maybe he re-signs Sherrill.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I don’t see Lowe going to the pen. It’s either he’s starting or he’s traded and I think he gets traded
Why not?
I see no reason why the Braves wouldn’t consider using Lowe there.
I think the Braves would rather eat some of his salary and trade him so Teheran/Minor and one of the AAA bp arms can start getting experience in the majors. That’s just my opinion
If we can't get reasonable salary relief for him, though
we use him in the ’pen.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Rotation
1. Hudson
2. Hanson
3. Beachy
4. Minor
5. Teheran
Trade JJ for some infield prospects and cash
Keep O’Ventbrel together
Move D Lowe to the bullpen or trade
"They've always provided me incentive to try to make left turns at first base instead of right," Jones said of the New York crowds
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
Delgado to AAA
Meds/Lowe in the pen
O’Ventbrel still locking down the back end of games. I’d love to see Fredi stop using his slotting system on our bullpen. Vents should not be exclusively used in the 8th, just like EOF shouldn’t be exclusively in the 7th. Those guys should be used in high leverage situations, not 3 run games. The bullpen management by Fredi was atrocious to say the least.
Given the struggles of all these guys to go deep into the game (Hanson included), having several long arms in the pen could be a big benefit. Meds, Lowe, and Martinez would all be capable of giving 2-3 innings. However I’m not sure that Fredi would ever actually use a strategy that would make sense…
"Don't put off til tomorrow what you can put off til the day after tomorrow." -Mark Twain
by SouthernPanther on Oct 10, 2011 8:17 PM EDT reply actions
btw
in this scenario I see JJ getting traded during winter meetings. I could definitely see the braves packaging JJ and prado to make a move for a bigger RH bat in left field. I love prado and JJ, but this seems like an entirely possible situation.
"Don't put off til tomorrow what you can put off til the day after tomorrow." -Mark Twain
by SouthernPanther on Oct 10, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I could stomach that move
I also like prado, can play many positions and can hit when healthy. However a package of JJ and Prado could land an awfully good LF. Only problem would be that we then would have a hole at 3rd after chipper departs. And then whoever player that would be , we couldn’t sign them longterm probably b/c of our current players that we need to lock up.
Lowe for Figgins + $2 million
1.Hudson
2.Beachy
3.Delgado
4.Minor
5.Medlen
CL.Venters or Kimbrel
EOF
Arodys
Martinez
Varvaro
Sherrill
Another obese bargain bin lefty
DL
Hanson
JJ
Venters or Kimbrel
Hanson and JJ will spend the majority of the season on the DL, as will Venters or Kimbrel. The Braves will not have the luxury of trading any of their good pitchers, but they might be able to swap Lowes contract for an equally bad one like Chone Figgins, who would be a good fit as an extremely expensive utility player. Lowe might actually pitch well (for a 4 or 5 starter) in Seattle, considering their defense first philosophy.
Derek Lowe will be gone
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Beachy
Minor
I think Hudson and Beachy are locks. The same goes with JJ and Hanson unless they aren’t healthy. I don’t understand why some people think we will trade Lowe and JJ/Hanson. If we did that, we would lose a ton of depth which is our strength. It won’t happen but a six man rotation with Teheran as the last starter would be sick.
Most likely:
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Beachy
Minor
I think Wren will be looking to dump Lowe for $3-5M in a salary relief, adding to the fund created from KK and McLouth being off the books; will deal for an offensive weapon using the formula of the Uggla and Bourn trades – that is, not moving any significant pieces, including Prado (who is somewhat like a combo death, disability, and natural disaster insurance policy) but particularly including all of our pitching depth; and then will re-evaluate mid-season at which point a big deal might happen. He’s not going to sell low on JJ or Hanson, coming off injuries.
Teheran and Delgado are starting in Gwinnett. Medlen is in the bullpen.
Trading Jurrjens:
Absolutely. I think he ends up being the odd man out (besides Lowe, of course).
Hopefully Wren can use his trading skills to pull the trigger on a good offer. If no one offers the right deal, then obviously they can hold onto Jurrjens and be completely fine.
Lowe either to the bullpen or somehow the impossible happens and he can be dumped on some other hapless team. Medlen definitely ends up being in the bullpen.
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Oct 10, 2011 9:45 PM EDT reply actions
WOW
Dave O’Brien, Unplugged. He is railing, railing, railing on the Heward situation.
http://www.atlantabaseballtalk.com/show-168-mega-end-of-the-season-debrief-show-part-1/
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Bye Bye Bye JJ
Hudson
Hanson
Beachy
Minor
Medlen/Teheran
*Medlen starts the season in the rotation, Teheran called up by May.
Bye to the Boras clients
1. Hudson (the beast)
2. Beachy (the beast, jr.)
3. Medlen (the comeback beast)
4. Minor (the K beast)
5. Beachy (the young gun beast)
Teheran and Delgado start in Gwinnett and come up to relieve injuries, which are bound to happen.
Tommy and JJ get traded for OF, since Scott Boras will want Midtown + Marietta for salaries for those two.
Derek Lowe gets a broom to sweep out the bathrooms after home games…and sweep them out while the team is away too.
You don't address a weakness by weakening a strength
Hudson
Hanson
Jurrjens
Beachy
Minor
Teheran’s breaking ball isn’t ready. Delgado needs to learn to put patient hitters away. Vizcaino needs to build stamina.
And don’t forget that if we got with two kids in the rotation, what happens when they run up against their season pitch count, like Vizcaino did? Bring Lowe in from the bullpen?
No thanks. Let the kids get “over ready” at AAA.
Thinking Backwards.
Teheran deserves a shot at a full rookie year.
Minor is ready and not even a rookie
Delgado has hardly pitched in AAA – he stays in AAA
Vizcaino could be an ace starter, you dont just keep him in the pen – AAA
Medlen isnt ready to start an entire season – pen
Beachy is in
So
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
Plus two of hudson, jj and hanson
hudson is going to be one of those.
Our depth will be great with delgado, vizcaino, and Medlen
I dont know what the trade of JJ or Hanson will bring back
I would keep JJ
1 because i agree with what people say about the delivery
2 because JJ has been hardened in the fire – was the staff ace as a rookie and has been an ace every time he has been healthy since.
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