In The Mood For Big Contract Extensions
by gondeee on Jan 4, 2011 10:01 AM EST
Email
PrintThis off-season the Colorado Rockies have given out around $230 million in contract extensions to players, extensions that will have the team on the hook for guaranteed salaries for the next decade. These moves to wrap up two young players and keep them under team control can be debated for their sanity when it comes to length and money, but the Rockies are making a bold statement that the players they consider essential will be taken care of.
Whether these were good moves remains to be seen, and may not be known for many years. The trend in baseball seems to be to sign good young players long term at a younger and younger age. The Braves did this with Brian McCann after just one and half years of Major League service, giving him a six-year deal. They tried to do this with Jeff Francoeur as well, but everyone except for Francoeur is glad he didn't accept.
The decision to sign McCann long term has been a good one, and with three more years remaining on his contract, the team still has him under control through the prime years of his career. So should the Braves be making a move to sign some of their other young players to long term deals?
Both Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens enter their first year of salary arbitration this off-season. The Braves control them for three more years, but should the team make an attempt to keep them around longer? Prado has been a valuable and flexible player for the Braves, and if the team is willing (as they seem to be, though they are taking their time) to sign Dan Uggla to a multi-year extension, why not sign Prado? Actually, should the Braves sign Prado to an extension over signing Uggla to an extension? Or can they sign both players (both primarily second basemen) when they still have Chipper Jones under contract through at least 2012, and possibly 2013?
How about some of the younger pre-arbitration eligible players? Tommy Hanson certainly has ace-type stuff. Wouldn't it be wise to sign him to a long-term contract now, rather than wait until he has a couple of really great years under his belt and can demand more? And what about Jason Heyward? He certainly seems to be the future of the organization, and as a Super-2 arbitration player he has four years of arbitration ahead of him, so signing him to a long-term contract could save both sides from the pain of multiple arbitration hearings.
We're in the part of the hot stove season where arbitration cases will get resolved and teams and players will agree to all sorts of contracts. It will be interesting to see which players the Braves choose to sign to long term deals, and which players the team will be content to go year to year with. Let us know your thoughts in the comments. Are you in the mood for the Braves to be giving out huge long-term deals?
148 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Sign Heyward to a 15 year contract right now, lock up Prado and buy out Hanson’s arbitration years if he’ll accept.
+1
If Gonzalez and his average road splits get over 11 mil per season, sign Heyward to 10 years and $125 million.
I’m on board with Prado and Hanson being extended as well.
CEO and Founder of the Draft Ryan Mallett bandwagon.
by DolphinNation on Jan 4, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Could you imagine Jason Heyward's OPS...
if he played his home games in Coors Field???
Said it before, will say it again...
10 yrs, $100m for Heyward. For anyone that wants, I can break it down yearly too.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Math was never my strong subject…
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Jan 4, 2011 8:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Then here goes...
$1m this season and next (when he’d be pre-arb and otherwise around $500k).
2013 (his first arb year)- $5m
2014 – $6m
2015 -$10m (his final arb year)
2016 – $12m
2017 – $12m
2018 – $15m
2019 – $18m
2020 – $20m
It’s low balling on the backend, but he makes more up front, and secures himself for the future.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I think you make a strong point about Prado and Heyward. Logic would dictate that sooner is better for players starting to come into their own. It stabilizes their future with the team. But, as you point out vividly in the McCann/Francoeur comparison, there are some tremendous risks in doing so. So as always, I come down right in the middle. I’m a terrible manager.
The only man in the world who would buy a Brian McCann swimsuit calendar.
To be fair, the Francoeur deal could have been fine if he had any inclination to improve as a player. I don’t see that as being an issue with any of our current young players.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
That’s a good point. Is there any way to forecast that tendency when a team takes a chance on a long-term deal?
The only man in the world who would buy a Brian McCann swimsuit calendar.
i think thats why you have to have good eyes in your organization
i think they know who works hard and how they work. Good managers and scouts i think can get a feel for the way a guy approaches the game psychologically—how they prepare, train, adjust, etc… not just whether or not they work hard, or are willing to learn, but how much baseball intelligence they have..
Beyond that.. i bet that strait up, they do profiling.. i bet they are looking for every reason there is and isnt to figure out if a guy is going to be a long time perfomer
Look at a player's work ethic and past adjustments...
I’d think it’s a multi-part story. From the players side, the French passing is a mistake and you lock up your future when you can since there’s a big risk going forward. From the club side, make sure your players will work and be worth it going forward before you offer.
But then McCann is kind of reverse. The Braves got a great deal on a great player. But for McCann, while he is in a good place and an organization he wants to be a part of, he probably left 7, if not 8 figures on the table that he could have had if he let things play out in arb.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Heyward is a slam dunk, Hanson I would say yes if he stays healthy this year, Prado and Jurrjens...
I would like to see one more healthy year out of Prado and Jurrjens. This also concerns me about Prado. (By the way I hope I’m wrong on this) Last season Prado walked an average of once every 16.2 at-bats. In what I would say was his most productive season with Atlanta (.293 16 HRs 105 RBI) Jeff Francoeur walked an average of once every 16.5 at-bats. Also, Prado’s BABIP last season was .335. That is an insanely high number and I would love it if he keeps it up but I wonder if it is reasonable to expect that.
"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment."- Nick Saban
Why take a walk when you can just hit a double?
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
i think king of games makes a good point
he is a hitter, when he feels in command of an at bat, he is looking to hit a double. Francoeur was not walking with a much lower average as well..
As far as Babip, wasnt his line drive rate real high to support that? Also, players describe prado as an incredibly advanced hitter, that means that more than most guys, he is putting it where he wants it, and I believe that. What is his BABIP for the last 3 years?
I agree about Martin's BAPIP.
When you’re talking about what’s above the norm with BABIP, it’s really dependent on the type of hitter the player in question is. Since Martin has always been primarily a line-drive hitter, his typical BABIP for a season is going to seem higher than most player’s, and this is supported by his career mark of .336, which is right on par with his .335 from last year.
I think it would be great to extend Heyward to a long term deal. I also think breathing is pretty decent.
I love Prads. I really want him and I to develop that relationship that Chipper and I have. But with money being tight, I think it’s best to wait and let him produce atleast another year before locking him up. I’m sure he woulnt mind an arbitration year or two while we let some of the bigger money coming off the books.
Hanson needs to rebound before we sign him long term. I think he is the future staff ace ahead of JT, and if that’s true, he needs to pitch like it to get paid like it
by thenightstallion on Jan 4, 2011 11:08 AM EST via mobile reply actions
What was the problem with Hanson last year?
1.17 WHIP 173 Strikeouts 3.33 ERA. Hudson on the other hand was 1.15 WHIP 2.83 ERA and 139 Strikeouts. For the entire season, Hudson was our best and most consistent pitcher but I was not at all disappointed in Hanson.
"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment."- Nick Saban
by Richie Grogan on Jan 4, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Hanson looked very average at times last year. I’m not saying he was the worst pitcher ever, so don’t make that mistake. I am saying more times than not he looked very beatable, and was very beatable, and if we are gonna lock him up long term, I’d like to see him have another season like his rookie year. I’m nit asking for 45 innings of no runs two or three times a year, but I am asking for fewer homeruns and fewer five inning starts. I don’t think that’s too much to want to see from a guy who you are gonna pay ace type money too.
by thenightstallion on Jan 4, 2011 12:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hanson had a good April, an average May and a bad June. So at the Allstar break he looked average. But then he had a good July, great August and amazing September lowering his WHIP considerably over each month. Ironically, his K rates were at their worst in the months where he pitched the best. As he matures I think his efficiency will continue to increase. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have Maddux/Lee/Hallady games in the near future; games where he gives up 4 hits and a BB against 6 Ks over 9 IP with no runs on 92 pitches.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Right. What I wanna see is a full year of the good stuff. Again, I don’t think that’s asking too much. I feel like my comment was taken as “Hanson sucks! He can’t win games and he’s impotent.” It wasn’t meant in that fashion at all, and to be frank I have no idea what his ability to love a woman is like. I just think it would be wise to see him have a full, strong year before writing him a blank check.
by thenightstallion on Jan 4, 2011 12:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Don’t forget it was his first full season and he was only 23 for most of it. . We’ve seen that the ability is there since his second major league start in 2009, now we’ve seen him make adjustments that have improved his approach. I think its fair to expect him to put it all together in 2011, if you don’t believe he already has.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
The point of an extension is to offer future security for less money based upon unsurity (if that’s a word). If you wait until Hanson is a sure thing, it defeats the purpose of the extension as you’re just going to pay market value anyway.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure if its based upon unsurity, or as most people would call it “uncertainty.” I think when you’re locking someone up its with the belief that this person will be beneficial to your club for the length of the contract. Obviously you don’t know that, so there is an air of “uncertainty” but in most cases I’d say the front office strongly believes it.
by thenightstallion on Jan 4, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
I definitely think he can put it all together in 2011, but I want to see it before breaking the bank on him. He’s a Scott Boras’ client, so even if we are buying out his arbitration years and making him more money, its fair to assume it is going to take a good chunk of change to do so. All that taken into consideration, Im not sure where all this backlash is coming from with me wanting to see another really strong year out of him.
by thenightstallion on Jan 4, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think the point was that these extensions don’t tend to happen unless there’s an air of uncertainty. If the player stays healthy and improves over the early years of their career, they’re taking a paycut in terms of their huge FA payday(Ryan Braun). Sometimes though, the player ends up becoming bad or replacement level and the team loses (Chris Young of Arizona comes to mind). A good example is when the Braves offered similar contracts to McCann and Frenchy who seemed to be similar commodities at the time. If frenchy had taken that money, he’d be very overpaid’ while B-Mac is signed at a very team friendly rate.
Also, it’s a moot point as far as Hanson goes, because Boras won’t allow it and the Braves probably don’t have much interest in an extension considering the depth of arms on the horizon.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Well said sir, you are both a gentelman and a scholar.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Boras advises, but the player makes the decision. So, if Tommy Hanson had the opportunity to sign a extension deal and chose to sign it, it would be his decison to make. Boras would have no power to disallow it, although he certainly might advise against it.
That’s true, but it certainly seems that he gets his way more often than not.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
He has a big operation with lots of extra services that are offered to clients. This is a selling point – as is his track record, of course. Presumably, many or most players hiring him do so in order to maximize their return. Period. On the other hand, some want to stay with a given team or get the security of a solid extension early in their careers, and are not so focused on getting the absolute max.
Boras gets his way...
…because his clients hire him knowing what his way is, and they agree with it.
Isn’t Hanson a Boras client? He tends to advise them to go year to year as long as possible…. That doesn’t mean he’ll listen, but I thought it was worth pointing out.
by Bmacbandwagon on Jan 4, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Nevermind, I just saw the other comment saying the same thing.
by Bmacbandwagon on Jan 4, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but I’ll insert another related point: CarGo is also a Borasite — so maybe the times are a’changin, and his advice as well?
Sandy Alderson: "There's 'no market' for Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez, even if we wanted to trade them." (All you need to know about the Mets).
Opposite, actually...
All the rumors indicate that Gonzalez and his family pretty much accepted the deal without Boras’s final seal of approval. He wanted to stay here in Colorado, his family agreed, and they essentially got the deal done. Boras then came out and said, “Hey, wait a minute, we’re still negotiating,” but the rumors and the sentiment that it’s all but signed is basically agreed upon by the media.
I wonder if this will have some impact upon who signs with Boras in the future and whether someone like a Gonzalez or (insert young players who want to stay put) will continue being represented by Boras. I think a lot of these international players ask “Who’s the best agent,” when they’re deciding who to be represented by, get Boras as the answer because he gets his clients every penny, and they sign with him.
Once they make the pros, they’ve got a steady stream of income that’s a fortune beyond any of their fellow countryman’s wildest dreams, and their priorities change. The concept of family and loyalty are incredibly important to the culture of their homeland, and they desire the stability that being with the same organization and and living in the same city provides.
If that theory holds true and we see more international players sticking with their original teams, I say bravo. It’s a potential sign that the empowerment felt by Latino players is growing stronger and they are affording themselves the opportunities to follow their dream in a much more realized fashion than simply earning a lucrative paycheck. Because family ideals are strong within their culture, they also provide a great example for their fellow immigrants (and Americans in general).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Didn’t Andruw Jones sign a similar extension behind Scott Boras’s back? I think it was 6/75 Million, buying out his final arb season and first 5 FA seasons.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think it was criminal...
how many times Tommy pitched into the 7th inning giving up 1 ER or less and didn’t get a decision. The stats just mentioned include his 2-3 ridiculously bad outings as well. You can’t look at the 10-11 record and deduce anything from it…
Which ones are Boras clients?
I know Hanson is, and I believe Jurrjens is as well. CarGo is represented by Boras, so obviously it’s possible for a Boras player to sign a long term deal prior to free agency – but I think that’s the exception to the rule. Hanson was a top 5 all major league prospect, and is future looks brighter than ever. I think the Braves would end up paying more for the security of having him around than he is actually worth (and he is worth a whole lot).
I’d feel a lot more comfortable signing a long term deal with a position player like Heyward than a pitcher.
"It wasn’t that it was slippery or anything like that. It was just, dadgum, my hands and the balls were so wet..." - Tim Hudson
"And those two guys at the end. My God. Jonny (Venters) and Billy (Wagner), just awesome." - Bobby Cox
by KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) on Jan 4, 2011 11:33 AM EST reply actions
Yep...JJ AND Hanson
CEO and Founder of the Draft Ryan Mallett bandwagon.
by DolphinNation on Jan 4, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Heyward: An absolute must, ASAP. I would be willing to start giving him big dollars now or soon to secure him through age 30. Maybe something like 10 years 130 Million.
Prado: He seems like a real company guy, I think the Braves could probably buy out his arb years and extend him for two more years at a fair price. I’d like to let him play one more year and assess his ability to stay healthy.
Hanson: Nope. Boras client, I’m thinking we hold onto him until he has one year left under team control and deal him. Possibly in the offseason or possibly at the deadline when he has 1.5 years left. He’ll bring us a HUGE return a la Mark Teixera (when we traded FOR him, not when we traded him away).
Jurrjens: Same as Hanson, again I think we can get a huge return for him at a deadline or offseason when he has 1 or 1.5 years remaining. I know that prospects are never a sure thing, but considering how many nasty pitchers this organization has knocking on the door, we seem to have available replacements who will be ready to replace not just the innings, but the ability of these two arms. Trading Jurrjens and Hanson over a two or three year stretch when their value is peaking could set the team up with young players for another four or five years. Keep in mind that Medlen, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Beachy and whoever else are either ready or very close.
The other thought is,
If we win a championship in 2012, with whatever our best pitchers are of Lowe, Hanson, Hudson, JJ, Teharan, Medlen, Delgado, Minor, Beachy (wow that’s 9 potentially phenomenal starters currently locked into terms with the braves through 2012) it might be hard for Hanson or JJ to walk away from a team that wins and looks like they are going to stay.. we wouldnt be able to pay them Yankee dollars, but if we win, we will have money to pay them more than the Braves have been able to the last couple years.
serriously what are we going to do with all those pitchers?
All of those guys are on schedule to start in the majors in 2012, and that’s not including Vizcaino, who easily could be..
THAT IS LITERALLY TWO STARTING ROTATIONS ON ONE TEAM THAT MOST OF THE LEAGUE WOULD ENVY.
Wren has got to be licking his chops,
if we don’t puck up Hudson’s (9mil) option in 2013 (his age 39 season) then we go into 2013 with all young pitchers.
Wren has got to be imagining himself trading off 4 of the pitchers (he won’t trade Hudson for a half a season of value) and with them picking up the pieces to compliment McCann, Heyward, Freeman, and Uggla…
serriously, if we manage it right, get maximum trade value out of Lowe and the other three we trade by getting them all into the majors and watching them perform, then we should be able to bring back up to 4 really great pieces.
Add 4 pieces to 1 – heyward, 2 – McCann, 3 – Uggla, 4 – Prado – and you have eight position players to go with the five young pitchers you’ve stuck with…
If we can afford to do some things to get these guys some starts this year, which we wouldnt if we were dead serious on winning the season, then we might be able to pull in some big pieces for the eyars ahead
Injuries, inneffectiveness, etc. It could just as easily turn out we don’t have enough pitching. Medlen never fully recovers, Beachyhad a fluke year, other guys don’t develop, others get hurt. Can’t jump the gun too much when it comes to pitching.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
This.
We have 9 potentially good starters for 2013. The attrition rate due to injuries and ineffectiveness is incredibly high for young pitchers, so we can hardly count on all of them.
very true.. we definitely can't count on all of them
But minor, Beachy, and Medlen have all proven themselves on the major league level after dominating the minors.. i think we have reason to hope they work out.
You can say that about every farm in baseball, but you have to say we have a better chance than anybody to get 5 good pitchers out of this bunch. An if we only end up with 3 or 4, we’ll buy a couple guys for a year or two and you know Wren will continue to stock up on young arms. Can you spell DYNASTY
Gondee, are you sure Heyward is a super 2? He started the season on the Braves 25 man roster last year. Woudn’t that give the Braves 5 more years of control with 3 of those years abritration eligible?
You are correct.
I was actually about to chide gondee on missing that point. Heyward won’t be a Super 2 in 2013, he’ll be a straight 3.
That goes back to the question I remember hearing before last season started: should the Braves keep him down in AAA a week so that he becomes a super 2. However, looking back, the Braves may have not made the playoffs without Heyward the first week or so of the season.
I think the decision was correct.
A. We did probably make the playoffs because of it.
B. Doing that only trades one year of free agency for a fourth arbitration year, which doesn’t save that much money.
then
what is Super 2? I know its a percentage of players that have accumalated the most service time and get four years of arb but what does being on the 25 man roster mean?
Being on the 25-man roster...
…simply means being on the active roster during the season. That’s the 25-man roster.
yea I know that
but how does that relate to Super Two?
Because players become arb eligible...
who are in the top 25% of service time (i.e. time on the 25 man roster) for players with more than 2 years of service i.e. Super Two. At least I think that’s it.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
As for the contract extensions...
…I would love to do one with Heyward, I would not be so inclined with anybody else. Prado is great, but he is not young for a guy just hearing into his first arbitration year, and if we extend Uggla, there is no pressing need to have two second basemen. (Yes, Prado can play third and left, but his optimal value is at second.) Also, Prado won’t be that huge of a money player in all likelihood, which means our saving will be less on a long term deal with him than they would for someone like Heyward who could be looking at a record contract as a free agent at the age of 26.
Finally, I am not as comfortable giving long term extensions to pitchers. For one thing, pitchers inherently are less likely to stay healthy than position players. For a second thing, we have a ton of young pitching on the farm and at least some of that should pan out, making extending the current crop a luxury that it might not be smart for us to pay for given that we will need to be spending some money on market value hitters in the near future.
Boras won’t let us extend Hanson past arbitration anyway. Our only semi-realistic option is to buy out his arb years.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Teams can insure contracts...
…on some players by paying money to insurance companies. Given history, I am sure that the rates on the insurance on pitchers’ contracts are higher than hitters, and there are some players who have injury histories that make them effectively uninsurable.
is that insurance money
something beyond payroll? is it factored in?
thank you
it makes you wonder about the way clubs allocate their money.. like, did the rockies have to empty their bank for insurance to sign tulo and cargo? Do we have a lot more money in our farm systems? How self sustaining are the other parts of the club?
Man, it would be tight to be a GM
I am vehemently against ultra-long contracts
in the vast majority of cases. I think the CarGo contract is dumb because they’re doing it right after what may well be his career year, but at least he’ll only be 32-33 at the end of the deal. The Tulowitzki one is even worse b/c he’ll be 36 at the end of the deal, has had injury issues, and is getting obscene money. The Rockies should consider themselves lucky if they only horribly regret one of those two contracts.
The exception to my hatred of these types of deals are very young players, like Heyward or Longoria (when he signed his deal). We could give J-Hey a 10-year deal, and he’d still only be 31 at the end of it. That is at least not quite so risky, and could save us a boatload of money is salaries keep rising. Still, I can’t see the Braves letting him get away no matter what. I would love a long-term deal for him, but I’m okay if he doesn’t get one.
I wouldn’t sign Hanson beyond his arb years yet even if I could. The risk of an arm injury is just too great to worry about that at this point. Let’s let him get to within a year of free agency before we worry about a longer-term deal. Buying out his arb years could be a good idea, though.
I’d love to keep Prado around, but I wouldn’t go more than 4 years. That’s as long as I’m comfortable going for a non-elite positional player (Martin’s very good, but he’s not a generational talent like Heyward). The same goes for Uggla, as I’ve said before.
Extend Jurrjens? Pass. I think we’re trading him in the next 2 years no matter what.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Also, it should be pointed out that “CarGo” is an asinine nickname.
The only man in the world who would buy a Brian McCann swimsuit calendar.
by TheLetter2 on Jan 4, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree about Hanson. He may be as impressive as JHEY in the early goings. But I really think JHEY is a special talent and a leader. I would like for him to be the cornerstone of this franchise for at least the next decade. Hanson and Jurrjens are less valuable to the Braves anyways, because of all the arms in the pipeline.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Hanson is as valuable as it gets
Of all the “arms in the pipeline”, only 2-3 might end up having any success, and that may end up being in the bullpen.
None beyond Teheran are projected to be on Hanson’s level at this point, so letting him slip in favor of them would not be wise.
Hey guys, big gulps huh? Alright....welp, see you later!
Considering his Tommy John is out of the way, I see Medlen as being on a similar level as Hanson. Gun to my head I take Hanson, but I think Medlen has proven that he’s a very good major league pitcher. Don’t forget that Hanson wasn’t a highly touted, projected ace prospect until he was very close the the bigs. , I’m a proponent of trading him 3 or 4 years down the line. Lots of things can happen in that time, and hopefully our system is as productive over that stretch as it has been over the last 3-5 years; we could have some Tommy Hansons and Kris Medlens waiting to emerge from seemingly nowhere(not to mention Beachy), some Vizcainos and Jurrjens’s waiting to be traded here, some Delgados and Teherans waiting to be signed and some Minors waiting to be drafted.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
i too really like Medlen
he is really in a tough spot.. I think he comes in as a September call up and forces his way into the rotation for 2012!
2012 - current pitchers under contract
Lowe – will be traded before final year (or midseason this year) to get return value
JJ – will be traded during or after ’11 unless he is soo much better than both Minor and Beachy that we trade both of them instead of just keeping one
Hudson – will not be traded in his final year out of respect
Hanson – going to be dominant
Teheran – Rookie of the Year
Medlen – will be too good of a pitcher compared to his trade value in the ’11-12 OS
Minor/Beachy – One WILL win the job in ’11, the other will become a long reliever or get traded, hopefully they will both have too much value to let rot as a 6th starter
2013 - im indulging myself
Hudson’s 9 mil option will only be picked up if,
Vizcaino, Delgado, or no other major prospect is insisting his way into the majors during or after the ’12 season.
The truth is, Delgado may do this in the ’11 season, Vizcaino may even as well
Our rotation is so righty heavy, I would be shocked if Minor didn’t make it. We don’t really have a lot of lefty starters in our system (I think Perez is the only other who really projects to be a serious major league starter), so I don’t see Minor going anywhere.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Hudson will not be traded...
…not just out of respect, but due to the fact that he is already a 10/5 player playing near his home on a team that he likes with full no-trade powers from the CBA.
good point..
i wonder if we will end up picking up that option.. I mean, he is theeee ideal veteran starter to anchor a young rotation, and if he can keep performing through 2012..
He will be a great addition to the bullpen for the stretch run, that is something that you always need. I agree about 2012, I think he wins the spot easily and hands down over Minor/Beachy. Teheran is the only pitching that clouds this issue.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
i think we will let go of lowe if Minor is having a good year
so we can have room for the younger guys… hopefully Lowe has a good year, a good post season, and can bring us a big piece
Medlen will not be a September call up.
He is only the active roster already, just the 60-day DL. We may send him on a rehab assignment until September, but he would be activated from the DL, not called up from the minors.
This is correct...
He’s actually accruing service time right now as well. Before anyone whines, so is Stephen Strasburg…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I was just thinking that it would be hard to find a spot for him
before we can expand to a 40 man roster
Medlen needs to be kept, he’s the perfect 5th starter. We may need to put him in the pen this season though when he’s ready.
I see the rotation in a couple of years being
Hanson/Teheran/Hudson/Minor//Medlen or Beachy. Medlen may end up taking Moylan’s spot though.
Delgado and Beachy waiting in the wings.
In a couple years...
Hudson will be out of the picture – there’s no room for a late 30’s pitcher making $10MM+ with all the young studs coming up.
I’m thinking more like Hanson/Teheran/Minor/Delgado/Medlen or Beachy
You still have Hoover, Carlos Perez, and others who will be scratching the majors in a few years…
Hudson should be given 1-yr deals once his contract is up, as long as he’s still effective.
Hanson’s worth keeping, Minor’s going to be given every chance since he’s lefiie, with Medlen/Beachy/Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino providing the last two spot. There’s just no room for JJ.
i am really hoping
Minor turns into a Glavine..
they say you start the game thinking you will tear the guy apart, then you are 7 innings in and nowhere on him.. I think Minor has that kind of underrated quality to him.. He sure enough could become a great pitcher
I don't think we can put Medlen on the same level as Hanson...
…especially until he comes back from Tommy John surgery and performs well. Then he would have to equal Hanson’s performance, which he hasn’t yet.
Also on CarGo, it seems like a bad decision to lock up someone for so much money and so many years when he can’t take a walk. It would not surprise me if he struggled to post an 820 OPS this year.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Because he’s good enough to have real value, but not good enough to be worth keeping Teheran or Delgado at AAA longer then they have to be. He’ll also get expensive quickly, and that money can be spent to fill holes where there’s a bigger off then JJ to Teheran or Delgado.
I don’t think he is, necessarily, although it is certainly possible. One factor is the payroll could be significantly higher under the new ownership.
What I’m trying to get across is why a lot of people think we need to trade JJ because he is a Boras client. So should we trade Hanson because he is a Boras client? Broccoman(Poster above you) took it from a value standpoint and I’m fine with that, but I just think it is amusing when people say we need to trade JJ when he is a Boras client.
Add to the fact...
…that all of these “need to trade” scenarios involved all of our pitchers staying healthy and progressing well. And with as many pitchers as we are talking about, that is highly unlikely to happen.
Or it's because...
IF, not need, but IF, Teheran, Minor, and Delgado flourish as expected this year and are rotation pieces next year along with Hudson and Hanson, that gives us 5, with Medlen or Beachy able to fill in as 6th starter. That hopefully allows us to deal Lowe’s last $15m and free up salary space. And since we already have a rotation filled, allows us to trade an increasingly expensive Jurrjens (because of arb, not Boras) to both save the $5+m he’d make more than a minimum salary Teheran, Minor, or Delgado and because he could get a bigger return of prospects than Teheran, Minor, Delgado, Beachy, or Medlen.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I'd give Heyward 10 years - 130 million in a heartbeat
You’ve seen what he can do, and when he is putting up .310/.420/.530 seasons, his salary will seem like a steal.
Hey guys, big gulps huh? Alright....welp, see you later!
If that were to happen...
within 1-2 years, then JHey’s FA years might overlap with the most expensive years in Uggla’s contract. Then you consider the cost of keeping Marteeeen…and we might have $40MM-$50MM per year tied up in 3 players in 2014 and beyond.
I hope Libery Media is this accomodating (and more) to FW…
Chipper, Lowe, Hudson (about 36 MM, not to mention the 12 MM wasted on KK and MclOUTh) will be gone and there will hopefully be plenty of affordable cost controlled arms filling out the pitching staff. Also it sounds like Uggla will be at around 12-14 MM and we’re giving JHEY about the same. Prado would have to be making the same or more than these guys to give us a 40 MM trio…McCann will be making that, however.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Also, it seems like FW isn’t a fan of backloading, so I think that Uggla wouldn’t really have “more expensive years” I think he’ll be getting the same money for the next five years, but we’ll have to wait and see, just a hunch.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Even if the contract is backloaded...
…the Braves have been very clear that they keeps the books as if they are paying an even amount for every year (they just leave the extra in the bank/investments to make money until they have to pay the player) so it should not affect payroll one way or the other. I know they did it with Hampton even though we didn’t have to pay anything until the last two or three years, and I think they do that with everybody.
Given a choice, I’d rather extend Prado then Uggla.
I think doing both is possible though.
Heyward, I’d bet the farm on, 10yrs/$125mil or 15yrs/$200mil is a good idea after next year. His injury history may make him more acceptable to a discount.
I don’t know, I think Prado may be more replaceable than Uggla. If Prado played GG level defense I would agree, but he’s pretty much league average at 2B. I’d probably rather have the 30+ HRs for the next 4-5 years.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
its hard for me to decide
everyone was saying what prado couldnt do last year.. well tell him he cant hit 30 homers this off season.. If he stays healthy I bet he hits 25, maybe 30 the next eyar
I don’t think he’ll ever make it anywhere near 30. Probably 20-22 will be his ceiling.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s silly to debate the two, we can probably keep both. Prado won’t command nearly as much as Uggla and I think he’d love to resign with Atlanta. I think we could extend him after next season for something like 5years/30MM.
by Sidbreamsknees on Jan 4, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Totally agree. Just saying, if I was forced to pick one it would probably have to be Uggla.
by king of games on Jan 4, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Prado will be the 3B after Chipper. 3B are somewhat hard to find, and Prado would be All-Star at 3B at his current level of production. I think Prado’s about a $6-$7 mil player in FA right now though.
Prado just come off a 3.9 WAR season. He’s worth way more than $6-$7 million in FA right now.
by dunnytwogloves on Jan 4, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
What?
How does 3.9 WAR translate to only $6 or $7 million on the market? I thought it was around $5 million for a 1 WAR?
by Undocorkscrew on Jan 4, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
And I'm immediately apologizing now...
…for reading your comment wrong.
by Undocorkscrew on Jan 4, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Jurrjens and Hanson
Are represented by Scott Boras. I’ve already put the thought of them signing extensions out of my mind.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
by PWHjort on Jan 4, 2011 2:42 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Also
Extend Brian McCann????
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
by PWHjort on Jan 4, 2011 2:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, McCann should be in Atlanta until his mid-30’s. We have to keep him around.
I always worry about extending pitchers because of the injury risk. I still figure Jurrjens gets dealt within the next 18 months once Teheran and Delgado arrive. And we have Hanson for 4 or 5 more years, so we might as well just see how things go before handing out a contract extension.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Jan 4, 2011 3:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
To simplify...
You always extend future Hall of Famers…
We have to be careful with McCann, too.
He’s great and I love him, but he has a ton of innings behind the plate already and most catchers do not age well. He could be one of the exceptions, but lots of catchers break down younger than most position players.
He's hasn't turned into...
Jake Taylor just yet!
No, he hasn't.
I am just saying mid-30’s can be dangerous for catchers. McCann is still years away from that, however.
Yeah, and if we want the prime of his career to be played in Atlanta, we’ll probably have to keep him through his mid-30s.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Jan 4, 2011 8:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not if we extended it now...
see below, he’s signed through 29 now. I’d doubt we add 6-7 years to it, which would take him through his mid 30s. Extend his deal 4 more years, and he’s only 33 when it’s over.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
But he's still just 27...
his deal runs two more years, so he’ll be under 30 if we let it expire. I’d have no problem adding another 4 years for his age 30-33 seasons. He’d probably start showing his innings on the back end of that deal, but you’d hopefully have Bethancourt or another stepping up to ease the load in those latter years too.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
If we’re even thinking about doing so (and I’d certainly be on board with extending Heap further), then I’d like to see Rossie getting into more games — maybe up to 2 a week. Take advantage of the fact that the braves have the best 1-2 catching tandem around and make sure Brian can last longer.
Sandy Alderson: "There's 'no market' for Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez, even if we wanted to trade them." (All you need to know about the Mets).
That’s not a bad idea. In all honesty, I’d like to have Ross become Hanson’s personal catcher. With Hanson being so slow to the plate, Ross’ arm could at least slow down opposing teams on the basepaths.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Jan 4, 2011 3:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's a good idea...
And I want to see BMac retire a Brave. At the moment his is Braves baseball to me.
There are no Giants in Braves Country. Well, except Jason Heyward.
Type ‘er up and let’s get it to Fredi’s desk!
Sandy Alderson: "There's 'no market' for Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez, even if we wanted to trade them." (All you need to know about the Mets).
Your signature…classic.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Jan 4, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody wants to extend proven ace Derek Lowe?
You guys are nuts? Lowe has spent SOOO many more years in the bigs than Prado, Heyward, Jurrjens, and Hanson and he’s a proven winner. Braves need to buy out every possible FA year this guy could possibly have in his life.
Seriously though, I’m all for locking up Prado, Heyward, and Hanson. Unless Jurrjens gives the team a solid discount, I’d stay away from him. I’d also like to see a 3 or 4 year deal for Uggla as well as extending Prado for 3B when Chipper’s gone. Unrealistic? Almost definitely, as Uggla wants 5 years.
we really need to develop some SSs
a couple would be nice..
Prado can play 3b or lf, so we will play him in either place we have the most need once uggla is locked up
I would say extend Prado over Uggla. (Begin Flame War)
Work to extend Heyward after this upcoming season.
Hanson and Jurrjens are going to be hard to extend with Boras being their agent. Just seems to me that he doesn’t really give a “discount” which is the trade off. The player gets security of a long-term deal and the team saves a few dollars. If neither one of this guys are open to any sort of discount then I say go to arb with them till our younger studs come up and take their places.
by drumzalicious on Jan 4, 2011 4:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The reason to extend Heyward now...
…is that it is cheaper—-he still has two years of low pay where he risks getting injured and never seeing the big payday which is why we could get a bigger discount now. The longer we wait, the more expensive it will be. It will also be safer, however.
Was anyone else aware of this new baseball league in Australia?
And that Peter Moylan will join the ‘Melbourne Aces’ sometime this month? Guy better stay healthy….
MLBTR
Reporting that the Uggla deal is done, 5 yrs / $62M
Free Matt Young!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Oswalt doesn’t need to save the Rangers, he only needs to provide insurance and depth
- James Loney: Umpires should call pitches from behind mound — and be robots with replay
- Magglio Ordonez set to retire after 15 seasons
- Barry Bonds thinks it will be ‘very sad’ if he doesn’t get into the Hall on his first try
- Chris Johnson’s glove webbing had a Spidey sense at Coors Field — for one play, at least
