Atlanta Braves Postseason Pace
by gondeee on Sep 8, 2010 8:46 AM EDT
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PrintFor the rest of the season we'll keep a daily tally of the Atlanta Braves chances of making the post season, along with daily commentary. Also consider this a daily open thread for general chatting.
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | Magic Num | Playoff Odds |
| Phillies | 80 | 60 | .571 | - | W2 | 23 | 73.3% |
| Braves | 79 | 60 | .568 | 0.5 | L3 | 24 | 84.1% |
Today we are going to take a glass half full approach. Maybe, just maybe, the Braves will play better when they are the chaser instead of the chased. Perhaps too there is a more pressing reality setting in for the Braves players. After all, they have been playing decent baseball lately, they just haven't been doing those one or two things that they need to do to win games. A couple of key hits last night for Atlanta, and two or three better placed pitches and the outcome is totally different -- that's been the story for the past few weeks. We have to believe as fans that those little things that the team is missing will eventually come back.
On the other hand, maybe this team really isn't as good as we all thought. Maybe we're just really darn lucky -- twenty-something last at-bat wins lucky. No, no, wait, let's stick with glass half full, glass half full.
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Congrats to Zeus12888 for winning the $50 Sports Authority gift card for being the closest to guess the Braves playoff odds yesterday. Same game for today, and another $50 gift card; in the comments of this post guess tomorrow's Braves playoff odds to the fifth decimal. If you need further explanation, visit the original post here, and don't forget to make sure and sign up for State Farm's Go To Bat.
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85.1264
"I always thought that record would stand until it was broken." -Yogi Berra
85.00187
"If I’m batting behind him (Heyward), I tell the umpire, ‘Will you please check that ball,’" Diaz said. "And he’d be like, ‘It didn’t hit the dirt.’ And I’d go, ‘It might be flat.’ He hits the ball so stinking hard."
86.00157. And how do we...
have a higher probability of making the playoffs than a team that is ahead of us? Statisticz is hard.
Based on projections of how we did earlier in the season.
God typed "iddqd" before creating Jason Heyward.
We have a much higher run differential
Suggesting we’re better than our record.
Also, we have 23 games left compared to the Phils’ 22, and we have 3 more home games than they do the rest of the way.
85.32145
And I am with lebetkowitz—-how do with have a higher probability than the Phillies?
Maybe in all of the simulations...
We smack the Phillies around head to head…
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
It depends on the simulation...
Baseball Prospectus is a good example of this. If you just run the simulation, then you end up for the division:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Phillies: 39.6%
Braves: 60.3%
However, if you use Elo (A weighted system used for chess, and roughly shoe-horned in for baseball):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddselo.php
Phillies: 55.6%
Braves: 44.3%
But if you use BP’s PECOTA weighted simulations (Which use a lot of sabermetric-based extrapolations in their algorithm):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php
Phillies: 61.0%
Braves: 38.9%
The simulation in the opening post is probably not weighted with information like weighing how well someone is currently batting for trends/slumps, VORP, EqA, etc. It probably just looks at “THIS IS HOME RECORD, This is team A’s home record, this is team B’s away record, here’s who wins.” Not to say one is any better than the other, but the Elo and PECOTA driven simulations probably have more data they are crunching.
The question is, do you buy that the data used is relevant.
by JamesFromPhilly on Sep 8, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
85.27150
God typed "iddqd" before creating Jason Heyward.
Oh, Charity is SkillsUSA
God typed "iddqd" before creating Jason Heyward.
0.00000%
Pretty sure getting swept by a, no wait, THE last-place team automatically DQ’s you from the playoffs.
Our crappy lucky team is better than your good unlucky team.
I would like to bid...
$1, Bob.
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
I hereby declare that TONIGHT is... May 131st.
Can someone please tell the team so they’ll play like it?
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
with a bloody horse head in D-Lees bed at night.
by king of games on Sep 8, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't argue with propaganda.
No, it might be because of our remaining schedule compared to their’s.
Here’s something that may not cheer you guys up, but might give you hope:
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3037
by Creek Johnson on Sep 8, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
And check this out.
These are the MLB pythagenpat records after adjusted for things like luck, strength of schedule, equivalent runs scored, equivalent runs allowed, etc. If you look at the W3/L3 column, you’ll see that the Phillies are playing much better than they really are. We can catch them.
FAIL
I guess the link would help.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php
by Creek Johnson on Sep 8, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course...
One reason they’ve been playing better more recently than compared to their season as a while may have something to do with their injuries through the summer. Their lineup is a lot different with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco in it than Wilson Valdez, Greg Dobbs and Mike Sweeney.
by JamesFromPhilly on Sep 8, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
83,64757
*Just Chill* when things start to look a bit difficult-don't panic as you take away your ability to think straight. Go Braves! Go Dawgs! Go Falcons!
92.18475
MASN Announcer: "Ususally they have what they call here 'the privilege,' and that's what bobby cox calls it when he let's the veteran guys swing away on 3-0. This is not such a hitter."
Jason Heyward: Single up the middle, ballgame.
90.71378
A lotta room in right-center, if he hits one there we can dance in the streets. The 2-1. Swung, line drive left field! One run is in! Here comes Bream! Here's the throw to the plate! He is...safe! Braves win! Braves win! Braves win! Braves win!...Braves win!
Is it officially time to stop giving Rick Ankiel and Nate McLouth....
…..AB’s? I also think Freeman deserves a shot every now and then. I know Lee and Glaus are giving their all, but they’re both really banged up and pitchers have them figured out(just throw them heaters inside).
So what’s the harm in starting a guy who pitchers aren’t familiar with who was on a tear to end his AAA season? Not tonight against the lefty, but I’d like to see him start at least one of the games in the Cardinals series, all righties.
I don't mind Ankiel
as long as he’s batting 8th. His defense in CF is so good it makes his offensive deficiencies tolerable at the end of the lineup.
by king of games on Sep 8, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Sheesh… gotta take the lesser of 2 or 3 evils. Put Omar in left, slide Melky(arg) to center, and play Brooksie at 2nd. Send Lee back to Chicago and platoon Freeman and Glaus.
Anything but watching Lee bat again
by BraveFanInTennessee on Sep 8, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
I hate watching melky play defense. He more than makes up for his offensive adequacy with horrifying play in the field.
MASN Announcer: "Ususally they have what they call here 'the privilege,' and that's what bobby cox calls it when he let's the veteran guys swing away on 3-0. This is not such a hitter."
Jason Heyward: Single up the middle, ballgame.
Josh Johnson likely done for the year......
……and he had two more starts against the Phillies. [sigh]
We just need to win games, not hope the Phillies lose.
by king of games on Sep 8, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Overachievers
I would say that they are chokers, but that would suggest that their lack of toughness is overcoming their talent. Instead, I just think there is a major lack of talent. Lee, Glaus, McLovin’, Ankiel, Melky-these are the starters? The fact that they were in first place for three months, in hindsight, seems rather remarkable. Does anyone seriously think that this lineup can outscore the Phillies 3 times out of 6 where the pitchers are Halladay, Oswalt and Hammels? Even if Hudson was pitching 6 times, I just don’t see it. The emperor has no clothes.
Melky is a WINNAR
and there’s a reason they don’t play the games on paper- anything can happen between the chalk lines
ROBOT HEYWARD: TEAM PHILLIES APPEAR TO BE LOSING EVERY GAME IN WHICH TEAM BRAVES LOSE. NEW STRATEGY: START KAWAKAMI, KENSHIN IN REMAINING 35 GAMES
Oswalt and Hamels have historically done fairly poorly against the Braves, so I think it’s absolutely possible for the Braves to outscore the Phillies, in any game.
You’re also talking about a team that ranks third in OBP, so they’re going to get on base at some point, more than likely.
For all the Phillies power and their small ballpark, their SLG% is all of .001 higher than the Braves on the season.
There’s a lot of reasons that the Braves are where they are, and there’s plenty of talent to keep playing successful ball into the postseason. Anyone who can’t see that is blind.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
This Team
Anyone else a little sad that we may not make it? Can’t get “This Town” out of my head today. Been a fan since the Horner, Washington, Garber, Mahler, Murphy days. But this one is getting to me. I have faith, though, despite my opening line. Like I’ve said on here before . . . It is written.
by New World Brave on Sep 8, 2010 4:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
That 60th Loss coming from the freaking Pirates hurts more than anything. Just sad.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Swing and a drive...Belted right! Welcome to the Show!!!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 8, 2010 4:27 PM EDT reply actions
Braves control their fate.
Winning the next two games will put them back in first place, no matter what the Phillies do tonight.
If they win the next two and the Phillies win tonight, they’re back in a tie for first place
If they win the next two and the Phillies lose tonight, they instantly have a full 1 game lead again.
They also still lead the NL Wild Card by 1 game. The closest team behind the Giants is the Rockies at 4.5 back. What sucks is that we now have to watch what the Giants, Rockies, and Cardinals do.
Ehh, not quite
Win both and the Phillies win = half game back of Phils
Win both and Phillies lose = Half game up on Phils.
Our crappy lucky team is better than your good unlucky team.
85.73177
St. Jude’s Hospital for Research.
[Mets] GM Omar Minaya confirmed to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Mets aren't going to fire any coaches today. July 26, 2010.
"What was more odd than that pitch being low is that Jeff Francoeur didn't swing at it." -- Jim Powell, Aug. 4, 2010.
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