Braves vs. Marlins Series Preview: The Last Homestand

Remember when we swept the Mets in New York and everything was looking fairly good? It's hard to believe that series was just over a week ago. Losing 5 out of 6 is no way to close out a road trip, especially in a playoff chase.

Still, there are reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic. The Braves may be trailing in the wild card right now (by a half-game behind the Padres), but they actually are in a pretty good position. In fact, they control their destiny completely. This is because the Giants and Padres play each other on the final weekend, which guarantees that the second-place team in the NL West will lose at least 2 games before the end of the season. In all likelihood, the second-place West team will lose at least 3 games (the only way the West runner-up loses just 2 games is if both the Giants and the Padres sweep their mid-week series, and neither sweeps the other this weekend).

Thus, if the Braves go 6-0, they will win the wild card outright; if they go 5-1, they can finish no worse than a tie for the last playoff spot (and even a tie would be incredibly unlikely). Even just going 4-2 in these last two series would all but guarantee at least a play-in game. There are lots of ways that a 3-3 record can prevent elimination, too.

So what I'm trying to say is, don't give up hope yet. All the Braves have to do is what they've done best all year--win series at home--and they'll be in good shape.

OK, enough about the playoff chase for now. Let's talk a bit about the Marlins. Luckily for us, they have not exactly been on fire lately (just 4-9 in the last 2 weeks). They have been outscored 71-42 in those 13 games. In fact, they were recently swept by the Cubs--at home--while starting the same 3 pitchers that they will be starting in this series (Sanabia, Sanchez, and Miller). Two of their best starters (Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco) have been shut down for the season, and star shortstop Hanley Ramirez has barely played lately due to an elbow injury. Their only good starter lately has been Chris Volstad, and the Braves will not face him.

I think it's fair to say that if the Braves can't win a series at home against a depleted and fading Marlins team, they don't deserve to make the playoffs anyway. Read on for the pitching matchups and more.

Pitching Matchups

Monday, 7:00 ET:
Tommy Hanson (5.94 IP/S, 3.51 ERA, 3.40 FIP) vs. Alex Sanabia (5.18 IP/S, 3.95 ERA*, 3.55 FIP*)
* numbers as a starter only

Hanson gets the call today instead of Mike Minor, which makes sense since Tommy is on normal rest and he's obviously a better bet right now for an important game. In his last start, Hanson pitched excellently, going 6 shutout innings (with only 2 hits) against the Phillies. Sure, he didn't get any run support, but only Jeff Schultz would blame him for that.

Sanabia is a 22-year-old rookie right-hander. He's pitched pretty well this season despite his youth and only having 2 games of experience in AAA. His biggest strength (both in the minors and the majors) seems to be an ability to limit home runs. Just like Jair Jurrjens, Sanabia has consistently posted low home run per fly ball (HR/FB) rates in his career--5.3% in MLB this year and 5.6% career in the minor leagues, compared to league averages of around 11-12%. While the developers of xFIP would say that is just luck, I believe that it is a skill.

In 2 starts this year against the Braves, Sanabia gave up 6 runs in 9.1 IP. He allowed 13 hits and 4 walks, but did strike out 9.

Tuesday, 7:00 ET: 
(probably) Tim Hudson (6.74 IP/S, 2.80 ERA, 4.03 FIP) vs. Anibal Sanchez (6.08 IP/S, 3.60 ERA, 3.29 FIP)

The Braves would like to start Jair Jurrjens on Tuesday, but his knee likely will not cooperate, so they will likely be choosing between Hudson on short rest or Mike Minor on long rest. I'm guessing they'll go with the veteran, even if Huddy has been struggling lately. Starting Hudson on Tuesday would allow him to pitch on regular rest on the last day of the season if needed.

Sanchez, a 26-year-old righty, has had a breakthrough season in 2010, setting career bests in most statistics. He has gotten shellacked in his last two starts, though: 9 runs in 10.1 IP, with 15 hits and 5 walks (against 12 strikeouts). In three starts against the Braves this year, he has put up a 3.93 ERA (8 runs in 18.1 IP) and a 17:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He hasn't been dominant in any of those starts, but he hasn't been terrible in any of them, either.

Wednesday, 4:30 ET: 
(probably) Derek Lowe (5.88 IP/S, 4.07 ERA, 4.01 FIP) vs. Andrew Miller (4.11 IP/S, 8.39 ERA*, 5.57 FIP*)
* numbers as a starter only

Assuming the Braves start Hudson on short rest on Tuesday, they'll presumably go with Lowe (also on short rest) on Wednesday. Lowe has pitched his best baseball of the year in his last 4 starts, posting a 1.08 ERA (3 runs in 25 IP) and a 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If he can give us one more start like that, it would be a huge boost.

Miller, a 25-year-old, 6-foot-7 lefty, was a highly touted prospect not that long ago, but he has never had any success in the major leagues. This season has been no different, as he's given up tons of homers (1.52 HR/9), walked lots of guys (6.67 BB/9), and has yet to go more than 5 innings in any of his 6 starts. He's been particularly bad in his last 4 starts, putting up a 12.89 ERA and a 15:12 walk-to-strikeout ratio, not to mention 31 hits allowed in 14.2 IP.

In two appearances (one start and one long-relief outing) against the Braves this year, Miller has given up 5 runs (4 earned) in 9 innings, with a 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

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Those pitching matchups look about as good as we could have hoped for. It's time for this team to step up, stop pressing, and put itself back in playoff position. If we can just come out of this series even with the Giants and Padres, we'll have a very, very good chance at making the postseason.