Atlanta Braves Postseason Pace
by gondeee on Sep 20, 2010 10:12 AM EDT
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PrintFor the rest of the season we'll keep a daily tally of the Atlanta Braves chances of making the postseason, along with daily commentary. Also consider this a daily open thread for general chatting.
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | Magic Num | Playoff Odds |
| Phillies | 89 | 61 | .593 | - | W7 | 10 | 99.4% |
| Braves | 86 | 64 | .573 | 3 | W3 | 16 | 89.8% |
Way to finish off the series last night for the Braves. Nothing pleases me more than sweeping the Mets. Good to see the new additions -- Gonzo and Lee -- coming through in a big game.
I still can't believe the darn Phillies came back and beat Washington in the ninth. At least the Wild Card teams behind us lost.
The big news this morning (kudos to fandave for being on top of this) is that Brandon Beachy might have to fill in tonight for Jair Jurrjens, if JJ's "tweaked" knee isn't feeling up to the task. That would be a huge place for Beachy to make his first Major League start -- maximum pressure. Let's hope Jurrjens can go. We need him at optimum effectiveness.
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I agree about JJ
But he hasn’t been at optimum effectiveness in quite some time (although he did pitch well against the Marlins two starts ago). I hope that he can rebound, but I am not confident in his ability to match Hamels tonight.
Prove me wrong JJ. Go Braves!
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
Rotation
Interesting that Manuel set it up so his big three see the Braves while Cox might well throw two rookies.
Initially I thought we’d see a similar situation, where the Braves tried to get Hanson, Hudson, and Lowe against the Phillies, but I think Cox realizes that the Mets were more beatable and we needed the wins.
What he might do is rest Minor, and push everyone elses start ahead one game
then we’d have Jurrjens (hopefully), Hanson, Hudson for the series
"That's my teammate, man... That's my quarterback"
by TurnerTheBurner on Sep 20, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Manuel didn't really have to "set up anything"
All he had to do was skip kendrick’s start and go to Oswalt on Friday. Skipping a 5th starter is common. All three of the Phillies starters are at normal rest. If the Braves tried to witch things up, no matter what they tried someone would have been on short rest.
Just a luck of the draw for the Phils.
by DreamWithinADream on Sep 20, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
According to the Filly fans...
the Braves are the ones who have all the luck.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
We definitely should manipulate the rotation to have Hanson, Hudson, Lowe go the last series at home.
I’m completely confident in Derek’s ability to shut down their offense
A lot of room in right center, if he hits one there we can dance in the streets, the 2-1....
Good to see our playoff odds back near 90%. As long as 2 of the 3 NL West teams don’t go on a huge tear, we should be fine even if we don’t catch the Phillies.
I love Brandon Beachy, but making your first MLB start in Philadelphia against that lineup in the midst of a heated pennant race? That’s a tall order. Then again, it’s a tall order to start an ailing JJ in that same scenario. Let’s hope that our hitters get to Hamels early to take the pressure off whoever ends up starting.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Sep 20, 2010 10:47 AM EDT reply actions
Unfortunately, JJ hasn’t seemed too comfortable with early leads, lately. It might almost be better if it’s a scoreless game through six. At least we know we can win in a bullpen duel.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 20, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Why
would we not throw KK since Beachy isn’t even on the 40man roster and would be a rookie making his first start under HUGE pressure. KK can come through.
by Southern IN Chopper on Sep 20, 2010 10:47 AM EDT reply actions
Flyball Pitchers and CBPark do not mix
I sympathize strongly with the idea that Beachy might be in for a head swim experience in Philly. HOWEVER – do any of us really wanna see a flyball pitcher like KK going in the band box that is Citizens Bank Park??? I say bring on BB.
[Mets] GM Omar Minaya confirmed to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Mets aren't going to fire any coaches today. July 26, 2010.
"What was more odd than that pitch being low is that Jeff Francoeur didn't swing at it." -- Jim Powell, Aug. 4, 2010.
Because he hasn't pitched in about two weeks...
has a total of 4 innings the entire month; and in those 4 innings he’s allowed 6 hits, 6 runs, a HR, and 4 walks.
One of the Japanese beat writers asked manager Bobby Cox after Thursday’s game whether Kawakami would be used from here on out only when the Braves were losing. Cox said, “Yes.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8393/news;_ylt=AhpP0eZ3DkE0XrUN9oDKanCFCLcF
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Not arguing
but how long has it been since Beachy pitched? Their season ended several weeks ago.
by Southern IN Chopper on Sep 20, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
His last appearance was Sep 3...
but at 6 innings, that still gives him more for the month than KK. Plus as hop said, he probably pitched a simulated game or two in Orlando in instructs.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
They had him ready in case ANY pitcher had an issue arise. He nearly got a start in Pittsburg in Lowe’s place. Sounds like they are on top of this one.
Write your own recap!.....mvhsbball
which would have come on his regular turn...
after the 3rd. The question is more what has he done since, either in instructs (live games against other farm hands?), maybe getting live bp against Glaus, Freeman, or some of the guys on the bench who aren’t getting regular work, etc.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
From DOB
If the Braves go 7-5 over their last 12 games…
Rockies must go 12-1 to pass them
Padres must go 11-2 to pass them
7-5 is very doable!
Write your own recap!.....mvhsbball
And both have 3 games against the Giants...
plus the Pads have 3 with the Reds and others, while the Rockies have 4 in St Louis among others. Our chances are pretty good if we can win at least 2, if not 3 of the remaining series.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Rockies...
12 games under .500 on the road. 7 of their games remaining are roadies: Arizona and that St. Louis series to end their season.
[Mets] GM Omar Minaya confirmed to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Mets aren't going to fire any coaches today. July 26, 2010.
"What was more odd than that pitch being low is that Jeff Francoeur didn't swing at it." -- Jim Powell, Aug. 4, 2010.
Saw this quote from John Schuerholz, pretty dead on:
“When they built that damn ballpark, we didn’t have a prayer. They started printing money and hitting shorter home runs,’’ Atlanta president John Schuerholz on the emergence of the Phillies as an NL East power coinciding with the team’s move into Citizens Bank Park.
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
Also their GM didn’t waste $23 million/year on Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami and sign Garrett Anderson and Troy Glaus to fill key offensive slots.
Yeah...
The Phillies have never “wasted” any money on players. They don’t have any terrible contracts whatsoever. Because Brad Lidge is totally worth $12M per, and Ryan Howard $25M per, and Raul Ibanez, and so on and so on.
Also, the only one of the players you cite who was truly a waste of money (and not merely overpaid) was Anderson. The rest have contributed somewhat.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Sep 20, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 20, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah
We’d have been a lot better off with C Morton and JoJo Reyes
Write your own recap!.....mvhsbball
Just saying, the 20/20 hindsight argument against signing Lowe and KK is pretty strong. And I was pretty against signing Lowe without the hindsight considering age and cost.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Neither has been remotely close to an ace, for pretty big money. But neither has been a total waste either, KK’s value is dead on his cost, Lowe is not terribly far off his. Wren had to do something, what he did has been pretty close to cost nuetral.
Write your own recap!.....mvhsbball
Sorry
KK’s value as of July, the last time I checked it, was dead on his cost. I have no clue where it stands right now, probably a little low after 2 months in AAA.
Write your own recap!.....mvhsbball
I don't disagree with that...
but Lowe also has a big opportunity cost associated with him. Where else could that money have been put to use (Adam Dunn instead of GA?), and was he really worth that much for that long, and that age, when there were other, cheaper options on the market to fill that void of starter until the young options would be ready to take over. My problem wasn’t with signing a starter; it was signing one that required a 4 year commitment when we had potential young options out the ying yang to fill in years 2, 3, and 4 instead.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Is Lowe what he was worth TO US?...
I’ll say it once since I’ve said it so often (and also feel it is parallel to mvhs wanting Werth, as mentioned elsewhere). Lowe has had plenty of solid starts. But what could we have gotten out of using Vazquez, Jurrjens, [a one year deal to Garland, Wolf, Pavano, etc among at the time free agents], Kawakami, with the 5th and replacements being a number of young near ready options (Morton, Reyes, Medlen, Hanson had just owned the AFL) or retiring vet (Glavine felt he was near ready, at least in junk baller Moyer style I’d assume and was deemed rehabbed when Hanson arrived, among others older options).
But by going the one year route, you maintain the ability to have this year Vazquez, Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, and Kawakami, with young options such as above and others on the farm like Medlen, plus going with another veteran on a deal the following year if need be. By signing the long term commitment to both Lowe and Kawakami after signing Vazquez, you automatically squeezed out someone should Hudson come back as most all do now from TJ, or more than one young starter appear ready such as both Hanson and Medlen. We did not NEED to sign Derek Lowe (they were announced same day if I recall, but I assume Kawakami came first considering you’d have had to target him from Japan for much longer than negotiations with Lowe).
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
A bunch of our guys would look like hall-of-famers in that park. The phrase “Warning Track Power” would either be expelled from our vocabularies or else be reserved for guys like Melky.
[Mets] GM Omar Minaya confirmed to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Mets aren't going to fire any coaches today. July 26, 2010.
"What was more odd than that pitch being low is that Jeff Francoeur didn't swing at it." -- Jim Powell, Aug. 4, 2010.
Are you trying to say that MVP couldn’t hit a choppah over the outfield walls in CBP?
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 20, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
They've had plenty of ill spent money...
see Lidge, Ibanez, Blanton, etc. Then there’s a massive extension for Howard he almost surely won’t be worth, dealing a ton of prospects for Lee, getting a much weaker return to “restock the farm”, doubling down with another batch of top prospects for Halladay, etc.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet they still have a top farm system
After dealing for 3 aces in Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt all in the last 1+ years…
Who was the last star-caliber player the Braves acquired? Tex?
by DreamWithinADream on Sep 20, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
"top farm system"?
Really?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
+1
That was quite the ridiculous statement.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 20, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, as of December 1, 2009...
…SI agrees with the Inception fan. In fact, they ranked the Phillies farm system as better than the Braves’, and #4 overall.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/01/farm.systems/index.html
by kidnarcolepsy on Sep 20, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Shouldn't complain
that’s just good business
by DreamWithinADream on Sep 20, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
come down to earth guys...
If we drop 2 of 3 to the phuckin phils then we are right back to life support. The Mets are a trash team right now with nothing to play for, the Phils are the opposite…. on a current baseball jihad
Or maybe...
you could quit telling us to quit believing in our team and then you could go away.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Current report from AJC is that JJ will likely make his start tonight
AJC says that Beachy is here for emergency purposes and unless JJ comes up lame at the last minute, JJ will start tonight. I think it’s a clear sign that barring mop up duty in any blowouts that KK has probably pitched his last for the season.
I think it’s a clear sign that barring mop up duty in any blowouts that KK has probably pitched his last for theseasonBraves.
FTFY
by DreamWithinADream on Sep 20, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
when is kk contract done?
when is lowe contract done also?
how much money do we have coming off the books next year essentially?
could we go get crawford?
Sailto— 3.20— i dont know who will replace him
Wagner— 6.75 -CK will replace him- 1.75
Glaus- FF will replace him- 1.00— maybe resign?
Hinske
all these guys will become free agent
i dont think that Braves will try to sign him because, he wil be too expensive and he his LH
post fail
Sailto — 3.20— i dont know who will replace him
Wagner— 6.75 — CK will replace him
Glaus — 1.75 — FF will replace him
Hinske — 1.00— maybe resign?
Saito-could be kept, or we have Marek, Moylan, Beachy, EOF, Dunn, etc
Wagner-CK, Venters, or Saito seem like solid choices, Medlen could do it down the stretch if the above 3 fail
Glaus-Freeman
Hinske-maybe Glaus, maybe Kept, maybe Diaz, maybe Xavier Nady, Lance Berkman, Ty Wigginton, Edgar Renteria, Mike Lowell, Brad Hawpe, and several others
Might also need to replace Diaz and Melky-Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 20, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Not with just the money coming off
Wagner and Saito leaving saves us about $10M, but McLouth will get a raise as will Jurrjens. I’d rather have Werth but neither may be feasible.
by DreamWithinADream on Sep 20, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
McCann gets $1M raise, McLouth gets $2M raise, EOF, Jurrjens and Prado get arbitration raises for the 1st time, Moylan gets arbitration for 2nd time, currently makes $1.15M, so I don’t expect a huge raise for him. Diaz and or Cabrera are eligible for arbitration or re-signing if they are not non-tendered. Ross and Infante get very small raises.
Farnsworth, Ankiel, Lee, Wagner, Saito, hopefully KK, Glaus ($3M by now), should be leaving.
I’m guessing we don’t have a huge surplus, but they might give the new manager an outfielder as a “Welcome to Atlanta” present.
Write your own recap!.....mvhsbball
We'll also need a backup/platoon for Freeman
So I wouldn’t be shocked to see Glaus back next year. KK has a manageable contract, so he should be easy to pawn off this winter. I don’t see any reason not to resign Saito if he’s affordable enough.
by king of games on Sep 20, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Dumb question...
Bobby Cox makes around $3 million per season. Assuming we don’t pay our new manager the same amount, can’t we use some of Bobby’s salary toward player salaries? What would be the estimated price tag for our new manager?
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
too bad it isn't like the NFL where
we could just cut lowe and kk and screw em over but save us money
Oh
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Sep 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
post fail
Oh great. We might be turning to a guy who’s never pitched in the big leagues to win perhaps the most important game of the season?
Ugh. I like Beachy, I really do but I don’t know if we can trust him to shut down the Phillies. Don’t get me wrong, I like Beachy but I’m not sure if I want him pitching against the Phillies in the middle of a pennant race.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Sep 20, 2010 12:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If JJ is hurt...
Who would you start?
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
It’s not like KK or JJ have been at all good lately. It’s not ideal to have a rookie make his major league debut in this situation, but it’s a game the Braves would have a tough time winning anyway.
Maybe
The unknown factor would work to our advantage. Look at the Braves against the Mets’ pitchers, they struggled the most against Gee, not the pitchers they were somewhat familiar with in Niese and Dickey.
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
Good point. I never thought of that.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Sep 20, 2010 1:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
the Braves always struggle against pitchers that are an unknown to them. I dont know if they just dont do their homework or if it is an subliminal thought Bobby places in their head. I dont think he means to do it, but I hear him say it all the time on the radio, so I guess it works as a good excuse. Funny how other teams dont usually have the same problem. I just hope the runners left on base problem goes away for a while and the Phillies start coming back down to earth a little. They aren’t likely to continue their win streak til the end of the season but their schedule is somewhat weak like the Braves. So we need to make the most of these head to head matches! GO BRAVES
How good is the Phillies D?
I’m concerned that some of the hitters with WTP will go into CBP and start swinging for the fences. I say go for contact and find gaps and smart base running. Nothing will put the Phailies on tilt more than smart baseball. Outslugging them is both unlikely and something they can brush off to “luck.” Thoroughly kicking their ass will get into their brains* and possibly demoralize them.
*assuming they have any.
If I have to explain my username to you, you're obviously a Philly fan.
"Kill my boss?! Do I dare live out the American dream?" - Homer Simpson
-1 for assuming they have any
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 20, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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