Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence In Flux
by gondeee on Sep 2, 2010 11:27 AM EDT
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PrintThe way the Atlanta Braves are playing it's getting kind of weird to write about the fan confidence, since what us fans have been voting on has come to pass after a few days. The team is getting a bit streaky, having one good week then a bad week.
This week the team is winning games and taking names, and one would think the fan confidence would be up, but it is down this week since last week included the wrong kind of sweep in Colorado. The FCP drops from 83% to 78% confidence -- not as bad a drop as it would have been had the Braves not won the series against the Marlins.
For the past two months this EKG-like up and down behavior has been commonplace in the fan confidence rating, thought it's nothing like the roller coaster ride of last season's FCP which waffled between 80% and 50% confidence for most of the season, often going from one extreme to the other from week to week. I'll take this year's first place team and the minor FCP fluctuation between 70% and 85% confidence over last year's any day.
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Out of curiosity...
In any season, what is the lowest that the rating has ever been? I don’t know if you have that information, but I can’t image that it was ever much lower than 50%…
"You can't print what I said, but they have to catch us." - Chipper Jones
Lowe's Injury
This is what worries me. We can’t afford to lose any of our good pitching.
Lowe isn't exactly "our good pitching"....
if Kawakami pitches as well as he was before the exile, he was as good as Lowe and we lose nothing.
yeah but...
even though i don’t like him…. we’re definitely heading into postseason… and I’d prefer Lowe over KK given his playoff experience…
Jason Heyward is what Willis was talking about.....
by Hektor DiPaula on Sep 2, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, what you should really hope for is that neither are in the post-season rotation, and that we go Huddy, Hanson, JJ.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but typically, you take a 3 man rotation to the playoffs. No way Minor is in above those guys.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
You do end up needing a fourth
for one or two starts throughout the playoffs, but I would think Lowe would be the guy for that due to experience.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Experience should not even be a consideration. Go with the best guy for the job, not the guy who was good at it 5 years ago.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Experience should not even be a consideration. Go with the best guy for the job, not the guy who was good at it 5 years ago.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally agree
but you know how stubborn Cox is when it comes to veterans. I wouldn’t be shocked if he started Lowe in game 1 or 2 of a playoff series.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
based on what I've seen recently
I’d go with Minor over Lowe.
Pretty sure all of us would.
But Cox is loyal to a fault.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Lowe has actually pitched pretty well the second half.
He may not be racking up the wins, but his stats have been pretty solid and he is one of only three pitchers with a GB% over 70% (one of the others being Huddy :)). That being said, I’m pretty sure any team would be more than happy to have KK as their 5th starter,
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No, he hasn't...
in the first half, he went longer per start (by more than half an inning per start), an ERA from just over 4 in the first half (4.19) to near 5 in the second (4.92), higher H/9, he’s giving up almost a HR per start (8 in 9 starts, after 9 in 19 starts before the All Star break), his K and BB rates have improved, but that’s it. He’s had his moments, but he’s still had plenty of problems and his stats, imo, aren’t “solid”.
Although I would agree with DiPaula in preferring Lowe to KK in the playoffs, but then I don’t expect either to get much action in any playoff series barring injury to one of the top 3 (TH, TH, and JJ).
If you take out his last start, where he was obviously pitching hurt, his stats aren’t much different than his first half stats. And with Lowe, who knows how long the forearms been bothering him.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You can’t just take out starts to make a point.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I do it in context though – not when comparing stats for a whole season. I would never want melky’s April, but you can’t take his April to make a decision abobut him now.
This guy is trying to take D Lowe’s good stuff from earlier and do away with his more recent bad outings. Almost semantical, I know, but there is a difference.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s perfectly acceptable to disregard his last start to weigh his second half against the first. I don’t think the arm has effected any other starts, and just disregarding his last start, his stats for the first half and the second thus far are relatively consistant.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
IF his last start were his only bad one, you are right. But he has been less than admirable for most of the year.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he's been great
just consistent and decent. You know he’s going 5 or 6 innings and he’s going to give up 3-4 runs.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
My Verdict
I think I will vote with Mr Sanchez Lowe’s second half seems weaker than his first….I see it when he gives up a long ball…
In the first half he was P.O’d to give it up…second half he just shruggs his shoulders…..yeah I made that up
but watching him pitch really bad and then really good proves to be making him just tooooooo inconsistant to be relied on during the post season
But again Bobby issss reaaaalllllyyyyy loyal to vets!
Now, if I was sitting in the GM/Mgr armchair I am going to vote for youth….Minor….but first I would test him by letting him start one of the @pills games 20-22
it just felt right and the chance to go to the postseason is hard to pass up. I’ve always respected their orginization… and Bobby…I’m excited. I’m looking forward to it...Derrek Lee (at press conference sayiing he had been traded to the Braves)
JUSTIN'S RIGHT
In fact, if you take out Yunel’s entire 2010 with the Braves, he’s done a better job for the Braves than Alex Gonzalez has this season.
/me prods with stick
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
90% of teams would love to have Kk as their 3rd or 4th starter, let alone 5th.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
90% is an exaggeration, just look at contenders...
Maybe the Reds fit among contenders, but then they have 5 as good as KK with Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Bailey, Wood, Harang, and Volquez. He might be 3rd there, or could also not even start.
In addition to Cincy, maybe Colorado fit your description. Ubaldo of course, Chacin and De la Rosa have their moments. He fits in with Cook, Francis, and Hammel in the back end, but not necessarily above them.
He’d fit in well with the Twins backend. Liriano is obviously above him in stuff, and Pavano has had a great year. So the question would be KK vs. Slowey, Blackburn, and Baker. KK is probably similar in stuff to them.
Every other contender has at least 3, if not 4 definite above KK.
St Louis—Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia. Arguably Westbrook and Penny too.
Texas—Lee, Lewis, Wilson, Hunter
Tampa—Price, Garza, Davis, Hellickson, Neiman, and Shields
SF—Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Zito and Baumgarner
Phily—Oswalt, Halladay, Hamels.
SD—Latos, Garland, Richard
Yankees—CC, Burnett, Vazquez, Petite, Hughes
Boston—Lester, Bucholz, then Lackey, Beckett, Wakefield, and Daiske (KK might slot in as 4 or 5, but not likely over those salaries)
White Sox—Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, Peavy, Jackson, and maybe Garcia considering he’s pitched as well as KK, in a tougher league, tougher park, and is family to Guillen (son in law?)
And then, there is the rest of the league that is not in contention where he would fit right in.
I never said 90% of contenders would love to have him. I said the league, as in, contenders and non contenders.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I picked up on that. But your math skills still need work...
30 teams in the league total, take out the Tampa, the White Sox, Red Sox, Yankees, and Giants, and you’re already under 85%. Add in the Cardinals and Texas, you’re below 80%.
He’d make at most 80-90% of rotations, imo, but 3rd starter, we’ve already taken out 30% of the league, then there’s us to add in when everyone is healthy (and he’d be behind JJ, Hudson, Hanson, Minor, and Lowe). So you’re looking at somewhere around 50-70% where he’d be a 3rd or 4th starter, maybe, but definitely not 90%. He wouldn’t even make 90% of the rotations given full health for everyone.
Apparently, facetiousness is not something you pick up on well.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
And it's not something you do well...
if you were being facetious, you shouldn’t have tried to keep pushing it by saying “the league, as in contenders and non contenders”.
You were wrong; it’s ok to admit it without trying to backtrack or spin.
29-37 road record
is cause for concern. It is the lowest among contenders. It makes home-field advantage that much more important for us. 49-18 at home is incredible.
Kawakami - 1, Halladay - 0
I agree
Plus I think we have a split of 15-15 left for road/home games. We probably need to win at least 8 of those road games to stay ahead of philly.
Nah. We play Philly 6 more times before the season’s over. Those two series will determine the division champion.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get this thought.
There’s no way to know for sure that the race will be this tight come the first Philly series. One bad series or two either way between now and then could put one team completely out of it.
The Braves could just as easily open up another 2-3 games on Philly as well as surrender the lead entirely.
Now, those series may eventually determine the NL East, but to say that without hesitation right now is premature.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
I don’t see either team running off a bunch of Ws or Ls though. I think both will remain pretty much constant, leaving those two series as the key.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
What’s that record since the 9 game skid?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Sep 2, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I see where you're going....
…and was thinking the same. The Braves were on the road a lot the first half, especially during that losing streak. Skews the stats a bit.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. ~ Crash Davis
by Old Braves' Fan on Sep 2, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
They also lost to some teams that, at the time, were not supposed to be good but turned out much better than expected i.e. the Pads.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The feeling of being in a pennant race is just awesome. Checking the scores to see how the Phillies are doing, calculating magic numbers. Waiting for the game to start, holding my breath in the bottom of the ninth. It’s crazy. I haven’t felt this way in a while.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
I agree
I don’t even want to increase the lead on the Phils, this race is great fun. And the first h2h series with them is going to be insane.
by king of games on Sep 2, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
agree
this is more fun than last year…we were the ones hoping to catch the leaders (even just the wild card) only to phizzle over our last 10 games…..this team has an extra gear….that should see us play at about -625+ the rest of the way enough to be in the post season..how much “+” will determine if we are NL east winners or the WC…
I was real worried when we got swept by the Rocks….but I think that it proved to be a reality slap for us and that got us going on our next run…and it does not hurt that we play a lot better at home and having Hud lead us there!
So, let us do the math….
it just felt right and the chance to go to the postseason is hard to pass up. I’ve always respected their orginization… and Bobby…I’m excited. I’m looking forward to it...Derrek Lee (at press conference sayiing he had been traded to the Braves)
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