Atlanta Braves Postseason Pace
by gondeee on Sep 12, 2010 10:45 AM EDT
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PrintFor the rest of the season we'll keep a daily tally of the Atlanta Braves chances of making the postseason, along with daily commentary. Also consider this a daily open thread for general chatting.
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | Magic Num | Playoff Odds |
| Phillies | 82 | 61 | .573 | - | L1 | 20 | 74.7% |
| Braves | 82 | 61 | .573 | - | W2 | 20 | 87.3% |
Here we are back in first place, though it's a bit more crowded than last we saw it. The see-saw tilts back our way ... for now.
I thought of last night's win as a bit of good luck, but I guess this is just the Braves getting back to what has gotten them to this point in the season. Nothing has been easy this year, but if you stick around to the end of games it certainly has been exciting.
The Braves will be in the position of knowing the Phiillies score before they begin play tonight, so we'll see how they perform under that kind of pressure. Momentum from last night will certainly be on their side.
A good read on this Sunday morning is Mark Simon's ESPN article on Jason Heyward's chase for a .400 on-base percentage.
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hmm
same record as PHI, yet we’re 1 GB. Something is awry.
I don't get the %s....
same record, and PHI has more home games left (at least did at some point recently). How are they not with the better %? And as far as scheduling goes, the Padres and Cardinals really have it rough the rest of the way.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 12, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
why?
Run differential seems like a good way to determine your record, but that is still very hard to do because of the many factors of baseball or sports period
Because run differential might work well over multiple year stretches...
but for a single season, there are often huge anomalies. So no, I don’t think run differential is a good way to determine record, considering you can actually look at the record.
With around 20 games left, I think W-L is easily the best way to go about it. Earlier injuries can distort the #s, home/away and opponents can also make a huge difference (see how the rest of the way sets up for the Padres, and Cardinals although they are already fallen far off).
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 12, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Huge anomalies relative to what? A team’s actual record? That’s kind of the point—the record is the anomaly and the run differential is more indicative of the team’s true talent level. All the things you mention can contribute to the inaccuracy of the predictions but they don’t affect run differential any more than they affect a teams record.
In this case, Philadelphia is underrated by run differential and less underrated by record, but that’s not the inevitable result of using run differential. In other words, Philadelphia just happened to outperform their Pythagorean record in a year where they have major contributors down the stretch who missed large portions of their season (Howard, Utley, Oswalt, Rollins).
Last I checked,...
playoff position is determined by actual record, not Pythagorean record and not run differential. So whichever you claim is “more indicative of the team’s true talent level” doesn’t matter, only their W-L record.
Last I checked
the simulations are trying to determine the teams’ records for the remainder of the year. Run differential is a better predictor of future W/L record than current W/L record.
That is: run differential is better at predicting future W/L record than current W/L record is at predicting future W/L record.
Alone, maybe, but ...
looking at the team’s recent record, home/away splits, opponents record, etc is even better than that.
Again, it’s a baseball game, not a math contest, and teams make the playoffs based on their W-L record, not run differential and not pythogorean record (funny, I didn’t realize Pythagoras was a baseball fan).
Nobody said anything about making the playoffs based on run differential or Pythagorean record. I assume most simulations do take into account opponents record and home. Not sure about recent record, it’s possible that whatever benefit you’d get would be nullified by using a smaller sample, although I know that some odds projectors (Hollinger’s NBA playoff odds comes to mind) do weight recent performance more heavily.
Obviously these simulations can lack critical information which makes them more or less useless in certain situations—that appears to be the case here, as I stated earlier. It’s just not a result of favoring run differential of W/L record.
If you are calculating the ability to make the playoffs...
based on RD or PR, then yes, they are judging who makes the playoffs according to who is better in that and not what actually matters, W-L record on the field.
You’re determining who is going to have the better record going forward using the better predictor of who is going to have a better record going forward. I don’t really see how that’s controversial. That’s about all I have to say on the matter.
Because you predetermine "better",
imo, the difference is negligible, and over a short span, there are better ways to judge. Case in point, the differing %s for Atlanta and Phily. But cause you say so…
I remember a guy in class once trying to argue that there was no way anybody could tell him that he couldn’t predict the outcome of a coin flip. He might only get it right 50% of the time over a large enough sample, but on any given coin flip you can’t say that he didn’t KNOW it was going to land on heads or tails.
You remind me of that guy.
Furthermore, how can you use W/L record to predict future W/L record when both teams have the identical W/L record?
I’m confused.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
You misunderstand what I'm saying...
look above, I list numerous factors that should be taken into account.
And Ron, sounds like you are describing yourself. Of course you can predict the coin flip, you’ve got this magical equation that gives you the answer.
As I understand your argument, it’s that W/L record is a superior predictor of future wins and losses than the Pythag or Run Diff. If I’m misunderstanding that, let me know.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
But to reiterate...
I said actual record is what determines the playoffs. Not pythogorean record, or run differential, and that should be used, not whatever other formula someone feels is the best indicator of a team’s true talent level.
And to determine the probability of a team making the playoff, see the factors mentioned in response to ErigGregg, among others that influence such things.
I commend you for a valiant attempt at arguing on the side of logic and reason. Keep fighting the good fight.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Explain to me how run differential is superior to predicting...
who will make the playoffs vs. factoring in current W/L record, future opponents, # of home vs away games, the current health of both your team and your opponents, and the recent caliber of play for both you and your opponents, among other factors. But by all means, let’s assume run differential can tell me what a team’s current record is better than what their actual current record is.
I just don’t see any way to quantify that scenario you’ve outlined, though. It makes the prediction completely subjective.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
There’s no perfect, empirical mathematical equation to accurately predict anything in the future. No one was asserting that. What the counter to your argument was, was that RD and Pythag were better tools for future predictions than what you had advocated. Not that they were perfect, or guaranteed.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Over a long term span, yes...
but in the smaller sample size of a final month playoff push, I think that severely reduces their predictive value.
gondeee, how was labor day weekend in FL?
Sorry the weather kinda sucked
I'm hopping that our CF production stays up for the rest of the year
We need people hitting in the bottom of the order.
Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.
This was my favorite quote (paraphrased):
The Braves have better odds because they have six remaining games with the Phillies.
The Phillies have worse odds because they have six remaining games with the Braves.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
That was me
Yay!!
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Our odds
I believe part of that is that we hold the tie-breaker over the Phils at the moment (I believe we are ahead of them in the season series)
Jason Heyward gets RBIs even when he strikes out with no one on base.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Heyward doesn’t strike out. He simply chooses not to run the bases.
by !Vive la Francoeur! on Sep 12, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Jason Heyward gets RBIs even when he's not in the lineup or even the stadium.
For example, he had 3 ribbies in a game between Texas and Oakland earlier this season.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Only 3!?
I think an umpire must’ve been glared at. Heyward decided to let him live, though.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Alex Gonzalez
Looked like a little school girl, skipping around the bases, after he hit that homerun last night. Was great to see the bullpen (after venters) do their job for 4 and 2/3 innings.
The Atlanta Braves have two AAA minor league affiliates, the Gwinnet Braves and the Kansas City Royals
Do you think
the Cards are going to throw at him for that?
If I have to explain my username to you, you're obviously a Philly fan.
"Kill my boss?! Do I dare live out the American dream?" - Homer Simpson
i hope they do
baserunners
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
Did you not...
Read the post about Jason Heyward?
We don’t need baserunners.
The umpires just look and see that Jayhey is in the lineup, automatically credit the braves with a win :)
The Atlanta Braves have two AAA minor league affiliates, the Gwinnet Braves and the Kansas City Royals
by KamikaziMelon on Sep 12, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i honestly think the cards are one of the classier organizations in baseball (with the exception of a couple players)…not to say they won’t defend their players…but i don’t think they are punks…
at the same time, gonzalez had the bat flip and then the skipping around…they might have taken offense to that and might throw at him once…i would say that it’s done after that tho…they wouldn’t drag that one out…
by forgotten_glory on Sep 12, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Really just unbelievable
J-Hey has only swung and missed once at 134 fastballs in September.
AND: in his last 100 plate appearances, he has reached base 52 times.
Are. You. Kidding. Me.
Nope.
He’s that awesome.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't believe it...
although if true, he’s freaking 21 and a rookie (and in all likelihood will improve, how he can improve over this I’m not sure, but the common theme is talented rookies with good work ethic improve as their careers progress). Imagine what we kind of season he’s putting up in 2015, 2018, 2020? If he’s wanting to play 20+ years (and with luck, healthy enough), big numbers are certainly possible.
by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 12, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I want his babies.
'Terrible preview...pretty weak, didn't learn anything new. pretty sad." - mastermike
by Scott Coleman on Sep 12, 2010 12:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My wife refers to Jason Heyward as “Butt Baby Maker”, since I (and most people on this forum) have such a man-crush on him. I was reading the Heyward OBP article earlier, and she said, “OBP must stand for On-Butt Percentage – the percentage of fans he’s had his way with. But, that .394 is way too low.”
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I also
Laughed out loud quite a bit.
Your wife has a crush on him too… don’t worry ;)
The Atlanta Braves have two AAA minor league affiliates, the Gwinnet Braves and the Kansas City Royals
by KamikaziMelon on Sep 12, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Saw that :-(
I’m watching Carolina game, have Steeler game on laptop and watching Phillies/Mets update on my phone.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
you a Steeler fan?
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Sep 12, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Did Steelers get that first down? (Booth review)
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
wow
Matt Forte just had a 89 yard TD reception!
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Sep 12, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Screw that guy…
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Sep 12, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Giants FG to go ahead of Carolina 17-16
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
I wonder if I should check on my fantasy team (Team Failure) and see how they’re doing so far today.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
That's a given.
I’ve doomed Aaron Rodgers to either a career ending injury or a season with fewer than 2000 pass yards and only 5 TD with 29 INT.
Never fails when I partake of fantasy sports. The people I draft end up having an atrociously bad year. When they are released or traded, they resume normal statistics accruing.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
tell me you don't have anyone on the Vikings please?
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Sep 12, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Falcons FG for 6-3 lead over Steelers
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
Tough defensive game on both sides.
Ugh, Steeler starting on the 6 yrd line..after the punt and friendly Falcon bounce.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
ugh, Mendenhall can't run and he's in my fantasy team
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Sep 12, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
http://twitter.com/ajcbraves
Freeman’s Birthday today!!
ugh falcons need to get their ish together i took them so high in my pool
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
i hate
tomato ketchup ward
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
I don’t like Heinz anything… prefer Hunts brand ;-)
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
need a td drive from matt ryan right now
losing to pitt with no qbs would be really pathetic
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
i kno that
but as an nfl qb he is garbage
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
Jammi Mother Flippin German...
I don’t even know you, but I don’t like you, and really don’t care for the guy who made that draft day call. Stupid, stupid Smiths.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_NFL_Draft#Round_three
Ut oh – my season of good will flushed due to be being a Steeler fan? :-)
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
:-) I might root for the Falcons if they were playing anyone but the Steelers or Carolina
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
I've cheered for them a lot too...
Kasay was from my high school and has been a Panther since day 1 (Willie Green same HS too). So I’ve always cheered for them (apart from Falcons games). And the Steelers have had plenty of players I like too, so I’ve just always liked them and their style (smash mouth 3-4).
Muts didn't show up to play - shut down 3-0 by Oswalt
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
Steelers FG to 9-6 over Falcons
Should have gotten a TD :-(
Not comfortable with this slimmest of leads in a tough defensive game
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
I keep losing my Steeler feed... trying my 3rd attempt now.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
Challenge on the field - will be ruled an incomplete pass I'm sure....
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
how far would it have been?
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
Another FG - Falcons 9-9 tied with Steelers
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
should'vr gone for the 4th and 1 and the td there
leaving pitt just enough time to beat them with a fg and have no time to comeback
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
sack!
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
And another. Not looking good.
STUPID play call after the time out.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
ok i was wrong, field goal was the right call now they can go for teh winzzz! haha
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
did that just happen?
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
wow
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
That was horrible...
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Sep 12, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
well the falcons owe me $150, no shot at winning this week’s pool now
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
unless pitt loses like 6+ yards...
theyll kick a fg as time expires
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
MISSED IT!!!!!!!!!!!
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Sep 12, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I have, back and forth – it keeps being shut down.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
power of negative thinking baby
now it will be determined by blind luck one way or the other haha
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
C'mon Matty
You got the ball. Make up for that pick
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
atl getting it first in ot?
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
Yup
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Sep 12, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
on their own 9, fantastic
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
Man, Matt Schaub only got me 6 points today
Thats weak…
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
Well thats game
Horrible penalties killed th Birds. Gave the Steelers awesome field position :(
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
Whew, Steelers held Falcons, will get the ball.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
and that was fast
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
Whew, tough game Falcon fans!!!
We were lucky to come out of that with the Win.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
The Falcons are overrated
losing to a 3rd string QB anytime is not good. Especially if you’ve had all off-season to prepare
by Jaymin Patel on Sep 12, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
There's no excuse to lose this game tonight....
Lohse has been SO bad this year. He’s been worse since the break. He’s worse away from St. Louis. Doesn’t strike anyone out. Walks everyone.
Braves are coming off two straight wins. Have their ace on the mound. Are the best home team in baseball…..
Seriously, they can not let the Cardinals win this game tonight.
Dbacks take out Kennedy after 6 despite throwing a 2-hit shutout on 82 pitches. Now that atrocious pen(Boyer’s currently pitching, btw) is trying to give the game to the Rockies…
and the Rockies tie the game
"C'mon Chip!" Bobby Cox
by ByrneSupremacy on Sep 12, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Braves have to win tonight...
….to avoid losing ground on literally every team that has a reasonable shot at passing them.
by Undocorkscrew on Sep 12, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
For those of you in the TC Fantasy Football League...
good luck this season. My team is freaking beast.
'Terrible preview...pretty weak, didn't learn anything new. pretty sad." - mastermike
by Scott Coleman on Sep 12, 2010 5:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Nate McLouth hitting .462?!?!?
Atlanta’s Nate McLouth has had a nightmare season, but he’s determined to end it on a good note. He’s currently on a 5-game hitting streak. Since the streak began on September 5, McLouth’s hitting .462 (6-for-13) with 1 homer and 6 RBIs in 5 games. Bobby Cox rewarded McLouth’s good work by batting him 6th for the first time all season on September 10 against Chris Carpenter. McLouth responded by homering in his first at-bat. McLouth drove in the first two runs of yesterday’s contest: a 2-out, bases loaded walk and a 2-out, RBI triple that picked up Derrek Lee, who had just grounded into a double play with runners at the corners and 0 outs.
McLouth was robbed of a grand slam by Cameron Maybin on September 5. Had McLouth’s slam not been caught, his stats would be .538 (7-for-13) with 2 homers and 8 RBIs in his last 5 games. Also, the Braves would have likely won that game had Maybin not snagged it. It would have given the Braves a 8-6 lead. They ended up losing 7-6 in 10 innings.
by AnEternalEnigma on Sep 12, 2010 6:06 PM EDT reply actions
that is amazing
I likethis version of Nate lots better
Atlanta Hawks=the team that drafted big $$$$$$$$$ instead of big men.
Oswalt with 4-hitter
Phillies win 3-0. Braves have their work cut out for them. Good luck Huddy.
Atlanta Hawks=the team that drafted big $$$$$$$$$ instead of big men.
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