FanPost

Hudson: W/L/ND

On a whim, I decided to compare Hudson's performance across his wins, losses, and no-decisions. All the following must be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample size is relatively small. That said, let's begin:
In Wins. To begin with, Hudson has been rather dominant in his wins, at least from a runs-innings standpoint. He hasn't given up 2 runs in earning the win since June 1st (when he gave up 2 in 6 innings). His ERA in wins is a sparkling 1.10, his WHIP a 1.11 and his BAA is around .200. In losses, it's not so good at first glance. His ERA is 4.29, his WHIP 1.18, his BAA around .230-.240.  However, subtract his one really bad start (one of only 3 times giving up more than 3 runs, the time he gave up 6 in 6 2/3 innings on Jul 17) and his ERA and WHIP are 3.41 and 1.10. In no-decisions, his ERA and WHIP are 3.48 and 1.13.

Now for his peripherals.

                              KP9IP    SO:BB Ratio  QS%  IP/GS   %GO    %AO     FIP     xFIP

Wins                      4.94            1.36           92%     6.8      55%     20%    3.63    3.31

Losses                 5.05            1.82            60%     7.1      56%     20%    4.38    2.98

Losses2*             5.59            2.57           75%      7.3     58%      18%     3.92   2.65

No-Decisions      3.48            1.71            60%     6.2     65%      15%    4.97    3.17

*losses minus Jul 17 These numbers are interesting. His Ground-outs/Air-outs are rather similar in his wins and losses, but in his no-decisions, his groundout rate is significantly higher. His K rate in wins and losses are about the same, but much higher than in his no-decisions. His SO:BB ratio, ironically, is worst in his wins, and far and away best in his losses, hugely better subtracting that one terrible loss. Hudson also seems to last 1-2 outs longer in his losses than wins for some reason.

Now for FIP and xFIP. I did not expect them to have this much of a difference, but they do here. I hear xFIP is a better predictor from some sources. His FIP in wins is best, but losses are significantly better than no-decisions. His xFIPs are all decent, but his wins actually have the worst xFIP (his worst FIP and xFIP start of the season, even worse by a significant margain, than his 7/17 start, was his opening day start, where he had horrific FIP of 8.14 and xFIP of 7.79, despite getting the win by allowing just two runs in 5 2/3 innings). His xFIP in no-decisions is 3.17, and his xFIP in losses is a good 2.98, and in his four not terrible losses, a sparkling 2.65.

What does all this tell us? Well, one major conclusion is that Hudson has been very lucky, and sometimes unlucky. With such little differences between wins and losses in some numbers show often it has just been a matter of luck and/or run support. His stellar xFIP numbers show he has been unlucky in his losses, however. Everybody has been predicting a regression for Hudson, and based on his luck, maybe that's true. However, like another article I read, his seeming emulation of Tom Glavine (working the corners, getting weak contact) has possibly changed his entire game. I hope to see more of the same out of Huddy through the rest of the season, with maybe some even better pitching in his wins. Maybe get his walks down? Thanks for reading.

NOTE: I used ERA because it is more common, not RA, which is generally seen as a better measurement, because he has given up just one unearned run all season.

I also find it interesting that the Braves are 1-4 in Huddy's no-decisions, making him 13-9 in his starts overall.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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