Probability to get a Big Call
by joshant on Aug 30, 2010 2:30 AM EDT
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PrintEdit Note: Thanks to CBWilk. I changed the probability of Brandon Hicks because He has a broken hand, so He won´t be called.
Hi folks.
We are only 1 day away from September 1st, the day that the rosters are expanded from 25 man to 40 man. It means that all the teams have to call 15 players of their minor league to give him a shot to gain some ML experience or to improve the team in a pennant race.
Braves is on second situation. Some TCers have give their own opinions of whom should be called to the majors. I will make something different, i will name all the players that have a chance to play with the Atlanta during September and their PROBABILITY to occupied one of these 15 spots. I´ll go from highest to lowest probabily, and why and/or why not the probability.
Lets start.
1. TROY GLAUS. 1B. PROBABILITY: 100%
.391/.462/.739 (9-23), 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 3 BB, 8 SO (AAA)
WHY
It´s not neccesary to say why he have 100% of chance to make the ML team.
2. KENSHIN KAWAKAMI. RHP. PROBABILITY: 100%
0-1, 21 IP, ERA 4.29, WHIP 1.476, 10 ER, 5 HR, 2.1 BB/9, 9.4 SO/9 (AAA)
WHY
Same as Glaus, but as a reliever. Maybe he can´t scare all the luckless phantom from Tommy Hanson.
3. NATE MCLOUTH. CF. PROBABILITY: 100%
.235/.366/.424, 1 2B, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 17 R, 7 SB, 0 CS, 19 BB, 20 SO. (AAA)
.168/.279/.265, 9 2B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 22 R, 4 SB, 2 CS, 26 BB, 48 SO (Atlanta)
WHY
Same as KK and Glaus, He is a "ML" player, but he can´t find his swing yet. He has provided some power and have an excellent BB/K ratio with Gwinnett. I think Bobby will use him mainly as a pinch runner, He has the best SB% in the last 3 years.
4. CRAIG KIMBREL. RHP. PROBABILITY: 100%
3-2, 51 2/3 IP, 1.74 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 10 ER, 3 HR, 5.9 BB/9, 13.2 SO/9 (AAA)
2-0, 9 1/3 IP, 0.96 ERA, 1.714 WHIP, 1 ER, 10.6 BB/9, 16.4 SO/9 (Atlanta)
WHY
He will be called because he already pitched for Atlanta this year and did it really well, the only issue is his walk rate. He can provide some rest to Saito and Venters, especially to Saito because of the RHP.
5. MIKE DUNN. LHP. PROBABILITY: 100%
2-0, 47 1/3 IP, 1.52 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 8 ER, 1 HR, 4.8 BB/9, 12.2 SO/9 (AAA)
1-0, 8 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.865 WHIP, 11.7 BB/9, 9.5 SO/9 (Atlanta)
WHY
Same as Kimbrel, He has ML experience, with Yankees on 2009 and this year with Atlanta, and the same walk problem, albeith it´s less than Kimbrel. He will provide more LHP option to the bullpen or will be the LOOGY.
6. CLINT SAMMONS. C. PROBABILITY: 98%
.156/.251/.348, 6 2B, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 22 R , 29 BB, 54 SO (AAA)
.176/.243/.235 (12-68), 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R, 6 BB, 15 SO (ML, 2007-2009)
WHY
He had played for the Atlanta in the last 3 season being the second back up catcher, so probably He will got that job again.
WHY NOT
JC Boscan, the other option, has been playing better than him, but has never player in ML.
7. BRANDON HICKS. SS. PROBABILITY: 90% 0%
.211/.280/.333, 9 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 27 R, 10 SB, 6 CS, 20 BB, 74 SO (AAA)
16 G, (0-5), 7 R, 1 BB, 2 K (Atlanta)
WHY
The denominaded YO-YO man has been called up a several times this year and maybe he has been the AAA player who spent more time in Atlanta, and it seems we are lucky with him on the team, He has scored 7 runs as a pinch-runner and almost all of them to win the game. Also he can provide late defense switch.
WHY NOT
I had considered him as a 100%, but He is injured right now and I don´t know how is that injury, so i don´t know if He will recover at time to make the Big Team.
8. STEPHEN MAREK. RHP. PROBABILITY: 85%
2-2, 47 2/3 IP, 1.51 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, 8 ER, 4 HR, 3.6 BB/9, 10.0 SO/9
WHY
The third relief pitcher who has a Sub 2.00 ERA with Gwinett. He has been very impressive during 2010 (before this year he was awful) as Kimbrel and Dunn. He has a fewer K rate but also a BB rate, and a RHP who can provide more rest to Saito (who can only pitch each 3 days)
WHY NOT
He has no ML experience and he is older (27 years on Sept. 3), but i will be very surprised if He doesn´t get a chance to play ML. He posted impressive numbers.
9. FREDDIE FREEMAN. 1B. PROBABILITY: 80%
.323/.382/.529, 35 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 73 R, 6 SB, 2 CS, 43 BB, 83 SO (AAA)
WHY
The top hitting prospect of the organization, the future firstbase man. He´s in Top 5 almost in all hitting categories in IL and He is only 20 (21 on Sept. 12).
WHY NOT
Too young for a team in a pennant race (considering there´s another 21 years guy in the team), never played ML and He is LH, and probably there will be 2 firstbase man (Lee and Glaus). I don´t think Glaus will get a chance to play 3rd because of his awful defense at Gwinnett. Although, why not give Freeman a chance to be the 5 player to hit a HR in his 21 birthday.
10.TODD REDMOND. RHP. PROBABILITY: 75%
9-10, 158.0 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 71 ER, 21 HR, 2.3 BB/9, 7.9 SO/9
WHY
The 25 years old starting pitcher of Gwinnett has been pitched very well, but He has a high ERA and allow too much HR. I think He will be called to provide another long reliever, besides Martinez and allegledly KK.
WHY NOT
He hasn´t played in ML and Bobby won´t want a guy who allow so much HR as their long reliever. Bobby has better option on Martinez and KK.
11.MATT YOUNG. OF. PROBABILITY: 70%
.303/.380/.417, 33 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 87 R, 35 SB, 5 CS, 51 BB, 51 SO
WHY
He has been killing the AAA pitching and catching. He has the most needed tool in Atlanta, speed.
WHY NOT
He is 27 years old (28 on Oct 3), never played ML and there is a lot of OF in Atlanta.
Another guys with chance
Barbaro Cañizarez (55%), Lee Hyde (52%), Mariano Gomez (50%), Scott Diamond (50%), Vladimir Nuñez (50%), Jose Ortegano (45%), Wes Timmons (40%), Scott Proctor (25%), Wilkin Ramirez (12%), Joe Thurston (10%),
PD. Sorry, if someone can´t understand some sentences. My main language is Spanish and I´m living in Panamá. My English isn´t well.If I have something wrong please let me know, because i want to learn a perfect English. I will participate in a constest organized by the Government to obtain a scholarship to Georgia Tech and all I need is English.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I think it would be almost absurd that Matt Young doesn’t make it up here, I really think he should be and I believe he can play other positions besides OF. IMO he is better than what we have.
Great post
The percentages are high on some , but good post. Good luck with your scholarship
by Braves24 on Aug 30, 2010 7:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
The %s are WAY too high on some...
especially guys not currently on the 40 man roster.
Here is the 40 man roster.
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=atl
We have 39 on there (Luis Valdez doesn’t count), and the ability to squeeze in two more if we want by shifting Chipper or Kris Medlen (or both) to the 60 day DL. As said elsewhere, Glaus, McLouth, Kawakami are definites. The Braves tend to bring up around half a dozen, so don’t expect the full 40, but a guy has to be on there to come up in September. So aside from the sure trio of Glaus, McLouth, and KK, Kimbrel seems certain, as does Dunn for the reasons you mention above (bullpen depth and both add hard throwers with great K rates but bad BB rates). We likely add a 3rd C in Boscan, Sammons, or Sucre. Sammons seems like the safe choice, and with him playing 3B lately they may have been working to get him defensive versatility for the call up. But Boscan has been around, is said to be a good defensive C, and has had the better season than Sammons. Sucre has the upside going forward, but with Ross locked in, I don’t think he’s ready for the call yet. Matt Young or Freddie Freeman are possible, but considering the rest of the roster and that they aren’t on the 40 man, they don’t seem likely. Stephen Marek has had a season worthy of coming up, but he’s not a definite since the club seems to be pinching pennies and we’d have enough end of the pen depth with KK, Kimbrel, Dunn, and Martinez. Other than him, I could see maybe another lefty just to give Bobby another LOOGY option if he wants to tinker, so that would open Hyde or Ortegano. But again, we’re pinching pennies, and would have Dunn, Venters, EOF, and Wags, and maybe Minor. So I’d put it at…
McLouth, Glaus, KK 100%
Kimbrel, Dunn 99%
Sammons, Boscan, or Sucre 90% (for one of them)
Marek 75%
Ortegano or Hyde (or maybe Diamond) 20%
Freeman, Young, Timmons, or another position player 10%
by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 30, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Braves recall McOutmaker, I will literally sit in a corner of my mancave and cry.
Furthermore, I’d be a bit surprised to see them call up Freeman. Even if they plan to play Glaus at 3B, they still have both Lee and Hinske available for 1B. I guess we’ll know officially Wednesday.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
It's not like he's coming back to start...
he’s at the end of the line, and in the least could be a good pinch runner.
by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 30, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
This
with expanded rosters there’s no need to place him high in the depth chart, he could just be the designated 7th-inning-or-later-McCann-runner-for-er. Also there’s no WAY Freeman DOESN’T get called up. The AAA season is over in a week, and Lee’s and Glaus’ contracts are both up after this year. If you’re the Braves, then, your options are to send home the guy you think will be playing first for you next season and let him chill on the couch eating Cheetos, or bring him up to the big team at a time when it doesn’t cost someone else a roster spot and work him into some guys to see how he responds. There is not one conceivable argument for Freeman not to come up unless he hurts himself in the coming week.
You have to pay him more...
to sit there and maybe get one at bat a week that won’t make a difference next year. That’s an argument against bringing him up on the roster, and it’s not like he can’t sit in the dugout with the team same as Chipper, Medlen, etc.
by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 30, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Although he's mashing
it wouldn’t surprise me to see them not call him up. Lee/Glaus/Hinkse will be the 1B depth chart, and you will have 3-4 lefties probably on the bench every game to pinch hit. I think he deserves to be called up and I think he will, but I’d maybe only put it at 60% or so.
Remember last year when Heyward could have been called up for a playoff push? And he wasn’t even though he was having a great year. Now Freeman I think with his stats in a full year of AAA could arguably be more ready this September than Heyward was last year with about 50 games at AA. I guess we’ll see in two days or when the Gwinnett season is over (September 7 or so)
With today's news
you can officially be surprised and start the crying. Sorry, man. Feel free to assuage the the shock and sorrow with an adult beverage of your choice.
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. ~ Crash Davis
by Old Braves' Fan on Aug 31, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
THANKS!
I love that you have so much passion for the Braves that you were willing to post in spite of any language difficulties!!
It is great to know there are Braves fans everywhere!!!
Vamonos Bravos!
Chicken pot, chicken pot, chicken pot pie!!
It´s not Vamonos Bravos
It´s Vamos Bravos!
you mean Let´s go Bravos!
literally Let´s go Bravos = Vamonos Bravos,
but it sounds very uggly.
Don´t trust in translator. Spanish language have different form to conjugate a verb.
I go = yo voy
You go = tu vas or ustedes van
He goes = él va
We go = nosotros vamos
They go = ellos van
Good to know. I’ve been saying vamanos for years. No wonder all the Hispanic players laugh when I say it.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Are we...
…really just saying “Here we go, Bravos!” when we say “Vamos Bravos”?
As in:
Vamos Bravos, Vamos. Clap, Clap.
Chicken pot, chicken pot, chicken pot pie!!
by HalleyGator on Aug 31, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
How come Barbaro Canizares gets no love
the guy led AAA in hitting. He can at least be a late game PH.
Because he's not on the 40 man for one...
and isn’t much defensively for another. He’d be a solid choice for that role as a late pinch hitter, if he were on the 40 man, but otherwise I can’t see it. The organization has been content to just leave him in AAA it seems, but the man can certainly make contact, and being a DH (which pinch hits 4 times a game according to Adam Dunn). If we had room on the 40 man, maybe. But then we’ve got Glaus, and other bench options so he wouldn’t be used much if any.
by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 30, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
They will only call up about 6...
Kawakami, Glaus, McOut, Dunn, Kimbrel & a C for sure & I want to see Matt Young!
Percentages waaaaaaaaay too high
Not bad analysis, but the Braves simply will not and cannot call up that many guys. I really doubt Hyde, Gomez, or Nunez would get called up. And I sure hope that Sammons is not 98% likely to get called up and Boscan is 0. Please look at their stats and tell me how a sane man could call up Clint over JC.
Sammons: .156/.251/.242 in 244 AB’s
Boscan: .248/.320/.367 in 218 AB’s
A sub FIVE HUNDRED OPS. Please Bobby and co. do not call up Sammons. Their defense is very similar and one is a black hole and the other isn’t.
i think there´s more probability to call up Sammons than Boscan because
Sammons is in 40 man roster, he has played before in ML. I don´t think that the Braves will purchase a ML contract with Boscan.
In my personal opinion, i prefer Boscan but in than analisis i was thinking like the Braves organization.
Sammons isn’t currently on the 40-man. He was removed either after last year or during spring training. One of the 2 AAA catchers will get called up, and I kind of lean towards it being Sammons just because he’s been up in the past, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Boscan got the call.
"I should have followed Rhyno's advice..." Mr. Sanchez 06/18/2010
i didnt know. I thought that I saw him in the 40 roster on the official website.
thanks for the info
It was mid season...
I’m thinking maybe when they brought up Clevlen after some OFers went down hurt. But he’s not on the 40 man, that is certain.
One of the few reasons Sammons could get the call would be he’s played some 3B lately and could be more versatile as that defensive replacement off the bench.
Doubt it
He played 3B for a couple of games because Glaus wasn’t there yet, Timmons was hurt, and Hicks was hurt. We had to play someone at third and a couple of times that meant Sammons out of him and Thurston if Joe had to play somewhere else because the bench was very thin.
The 3B depth chart for September evern with him called up and possibly playing 3rd would be something like
Prado/Infante/Conrad/Glaus/Sammons
True,...
just saying that Sammons can be used at somewhere other than C, and Boscan doesn’t seem as capable of that, which is an advantage to Sammons. I think Boscan would be the obvious choice too, just saying that is an advantage Sammons has over him.
The reason to bring up Sammons is that he’s already been in the big leagues and has worked with the pitching staff before. We’ll also, likely, have to remove whichever Catcher we do call up from the 40 man after the season is over, and would probably rather risk losing Sammons than Boscan.
Offensive stats for a 3rd catcher on an expanded roster are nearly irrelevant.
Good points
I know offense isn’t as important as defense but honestly there’s not much difference in their defense. Familiarity is important, though I doubt whoever gets called up plays more than a couple innings if needed late in a ballgame when he might be catching some guys who have been at AAA this year.
The 40 man idea I’m not sure if that’s what the Braves are thinking but I think it’s very sound reasoning. I don’t expect Sammons to even be back next year while I think Boscan is probably catcher 1A or 1B in Gwinnett again.
One point on familiarity is that Boscan has been with the Braves (for the second time) since 07, so any guys who have come up with the team he’s caught in the Minors, and he’s been with them in Major League ST every year, so really he’s probably about as familiar with the pitchers as Sammons is.
Also, I don’t see why they’d be worried about losing either one, but why would they be more worried about losing Boscan?
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
it will be sammons because
the point of having either is not as a hitter, its as a backup to Ross so that ross can be used freely…so what they want is to have someone they can depend on as a backup.. someone that wont be nervous about their first game being extra innings in a game that Ross was used to pinch hit in. For that reason they will want a veteran, and the club as a whole seems to be high on sammons.
JC Boscan has almost 1000 games over a 14 year career. He hasn’t played in the Majors, but he’s definitely a veteran.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Good call
I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. ~ Crash Davis
by Old Braves' Fan on Aug 31, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait... your main language is Spanish...
That makes so much sense… I was always wondering why some thing about your spelling / grammar were off… but considering it’s your second language it’s actually REALLY impressive!
My Spanish probably sounds about like your English, haha
Go USA, Braves, BU Terriers, Irish, Caps, Colts, Hoyas, NU Cats, Wizards, DC United, Washington Freedom
BU Hockey: National Champions 1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009
thanks
but i want to know what things were off?
Just a few
no need to keep capitalizing he in the editor’s note unless it is at the beginning of a sentence.
The correct phrase is “my english isn’t good” NOT “my english isn’t well.” Use good to describe things, well to describe people.
Carpe Diaz
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