SB Nation Atlanta Editor's Pick
Braves May Not Have an Active Winter
by BenDuronio on Aug 26, 2010 8:52 PM EDT
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PrintI saw a numerous amount of posts about the offseason and how the team will look next year. Since it is an off day, I decided to put my thoughts together and post them here, since it would be an absurd comment.
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The Braves are heading straight towards their first playoff berth since 2005 and by the looks of it, they may get a few more in the coming seasons
Bobby Cox and Billy Wagner are retiring, with an expected departure of Takashi Saito and Derrek Lee. Eric Hinske will be a free agent as well, but the Braves may opt to keep him around next season on a one or two year deal.
On the manager front, I fully expect Fredi Gonzalez to be named as Bobby Cox’s successor. I would actually be rather surprised if it were anyone else.
The replacements for Wagner and Saito will most likely be internal options. Michael Dunn and Craig Kimbrel have had effective seasons in triple-A this season and also had some success with the major league club. The way it looks now, Jonny Venters would assume the closers role with Kimbrel and Dunn moving into middle-relief positions. Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty will remain with the team, barring any unforeseen trade or injury — a Farnsworth trade is certainly feasible. The Braves could opt to sign a reliever to set-up or close next year, but they probably do not need to. Christian Martinez and Stephen Marek are also very reasonable internal options as low leverage relievers next year.
Offensively, the Braves will likely stand — at least close to — pat. The exception may be a left-handed outfielder to platoon with Matt Diaz, but that may be Hinske once again. I do not expect it to be a top flight player, but I sure hope the Twins don’t pick up Jason Kubel’s option next season (I expect that they will and so do Twins bloggers). A centerfielder may be looked at, but I imagine they are willing to let Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera battle for the spot with the hopes that one ends up being productive. A salary dump of McLouth may happen as well, but his value is at an all-time low — a trade of him this offseason would not net much.
The rotation will also be unchanged, with the possibility that one of Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami is dealt. I expect the latter but hope for the former. Lowe has an awful contract while Kawakami just has a fairly bad one. Kenshin can pitch in this league and is less expensive, so he is the obvious choice to keep in a vacuum. I don’t know if any teams would be willing to take on Lowe’s contract — possibly not even anything more than half of it. Even so, he isn’t absolutely terrible and you can live with his production as a fifth starter.
The Chipper Jones injury is something to worry about. He may or may not return, which will hinder the team’s flexibility this offseason. If they knew one way or the other, they could focus on acquiring a new third basemen through trade and dishing out money to a top flight outfield option like Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford. With his return in question, they cannot really do this. Optimally, they would sign a left-handed hitter who can play both left field and third base who could either platoon with Diaz or play third in the event that Chipper cannot return to baseball. Omar Infante may keep the Braves from signing this type of player. His production this season probably gives them hope that he can fill in if Chipper retires.
Freddie Freeman will almost definitely take over at first base. He is another left-handed bat — which may be frustrating considering that right field, center field, and catcher are already left-handed. Regardless, lefties are more valuable than righties due to the amount of right-handed starters in the league. A team full of lefty bats is better than a team full of righty bats. Freeman should produce well since his triple-A numbers have been so impressive.
Overall, the only real options for signings would be left field, center field, and possibly another utility player. If the latter two were to occur, other moves would likely be in store as well — most likely a few trades. There is a possibility that you see almost an identical team plus a few rookies and minus a few veterans next season. Given the Braves’ current record and performance, that may not be a bad thing at all.
EDIT: Original post included me saying we would have Farnsworth and Ankiel next year. I had thought they had player options but Ankiel has a mutual option and Farnsworth has a team option, both of which will not be picked up. Apologies for not double checking beforehand.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Would Canizares be of any use in a trade to an AL team? I’m sure the White Sox would LOVE to have him as a DH- huge bonus over Kotsay.
Maybe Canizares+McLouth+prospect for Alex Rios?
my friend...
i’ve seen some bad trade scenarios, but that one might take the cake. if alex rios was in a tragic woodchopping accident and severed his leg, the sox might bite.
ben, i dont think there’s any way possible that the braves, who are already penny pinching, would ever consider picking up farnsworth’s 2011 option. the option is for 5.25 million and the braves have too many rh options at gwinnett to not use. i full expect the 2011 bullpen to be venters, moylan, marek, kimbrel, o’flaherty, dunn, and beachy/proctor.
matt young, barbaro canizares, and freddie freeman are all on my wish list for the 2011 roster. afer this season, the braves would be crazy to re-sign diaz or melky. each will cost between 4-5 million. ankiel’s option will not be picked up.
the braves, like the 2010 braves, will probably give mclouth back the cf job, with a fallback candidate such as young taking over if mclouth takes a turn for 2010.
kawakami will be traded, but we’ll have to take on a bad contract as well.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I don’t know where Canizares could fit with his extremely limited defensive flexibility. He’s got a bat, but I doubt he ever helps the big club much.
I’m also high on Young. This McLouth situation is really annoying since he can be a plus hitter at a normally light-hitting position
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
by BenDuronio on Aug 26, 2010 9:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is why I say his value is entirely in trading him to the AL.
Could he handle LF at all? Is he Adam Dunn bad?
There's absolutely no way we pick up Ankiel's $6MM option.
"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."
"Oh man am I a woman?!"
by Scott Coleman on Aug 26, 2010 9:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Or Farnsworth's
we can buy him out for $500,000
ben...
i dont discredit your knowledge, but i cant believe you actually think the braves will pick up ankiel or farnsworth’s option. you say there’s no payroll flexibility, yet you’ll give 11 million dollars to players that have severely underachieved in a braves uniform.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I actually had myself convinced they were player options for some reason. It makes no sense that either would have one in their contract, so I don’t know what made me believe that. My bad for not double checking that before the post.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
by BenDuronio on Aug 26, 2010 9:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
First off, I can with without a doubt that Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel will not have option option exercised, so you can cross him off your bullpen.
We know the rotation will consist of Tim Hudson (9M), Tommy Hanson (400K) and Mike Minor (400K).
We also know the bullpen sill consist of Johnny Venters (400K), Peter Moylan (2M) and Eric O’Flaherty (1M). While we’re at it, we might as well throw in Craig Kimbrel (400K), Mike Dunn (400K), and Christian Martinez (400K).
We also know that David Ross will be on the bench for another 1.67M.
And we know that our regular position players will be: Brian McCann (6.5M), Martin Prado (3M) and Jason Heyward (400K). We also can figure in Freddie Freeman at 400K.
Now we need:
2 SP
SS
2B/3B
LF
CF
2 RP
4th OF
utility OF
utility IF
backup 1B
With Alex Gonzalez’s play of late, and the lack of top caliber SS on the FA market, you can pencil in A-Gon’s option at 2.5M. Now we have a SS.
Eric Hinske will ideally be re-signed on a one-year deal at 2.5M with a mutual option. Now we have a back-up 1B, and bat off the bench.
Matt Diaz will likely be non-tendered a contract, and Melky’s versatility will give him arbitration – pencil Melky at CF at 5M.
Omar Infante will absolutely have his option exercised – the only question is where: does he play? Pen (not just pencil) his salary in at 2.5M, but leave his position open. He could start in LF or 2B. In an ideal world, he plays 2B with Prado sliding over to 3B.
Our utility IF and OF will both be internal. I imagine we will see Matt Young (400K) as the 4th OF and Wes Timmons (400K) as the back-up infielder. Brooks Conrad also stays on the team (400K) to play off the bench. Conrad can spell Prado, Prado can spell Freeman, Infante can play 4-9 – most of our players are extremely versatile.
Nate McLouth will be traded for whatever we can get – with us eating whatever portion of his salary necessary. Even if we take on 3M, that still leaves an extra 3.5M of wiggle room left. Derek Lowe will be shopped, but most likely retained (at 15M), and KK will be dealt for low-level, low-reward prospects.
Now we can sign the discarded Javier Vazquez after he is nontendered by the Yankees (and pick up draft picks due to his Type A/B status) for one year at 6M with a 7M club option and a 500K buyout.
Trade Jair Jurrjens plus two prospects to LA for Matt Kemp (8.5M), and now we have our CF.
Now our team and salary is:
ROTATION:
RHP Tim Hudson 9M (GB)
RHP Tommy Hanson 400K (K)
RHP Derek Lowe 15M (GB)
RHP Javier Vazquez 6M (K)
LHP Mike Minor 400K (contact)
LINE-UP: (with no Chipper)
R Omar Infante 2B (2.5M)
R Martin Prado 3B (3M)
L Jason Heyward RF (400K)
L Brian McCann C (6.5M)
R Matt Kemp CF(8.5M)
R Alex Gonzalez SS (2.5M)
L Freddie Freeman 1B (400K)
S Melky Cabrera LF (5M)
BENCH:
L Eric Hinske 1B/LF (2.5M)
R David Ross C (2.67M)
R Wes Timmons 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF (400K)
L Matt Young LF/CF/RF (400K)
S Brooks Conrad 3B (400K)
BULLPEN:
L Johnny Venters CL (400K)
R Craig Kimbrel SU (400K)
R Peter Moylan SU/GB (2M)
L Eric O’Flaherty MRP (1M)
R Christian Martinez MRP (400K)
L Mike Dunn LOOGY (400K)
R Brandon Beachy LRP/spot-start (400K)
Misc. salary
500k in Farnsworth buyout
13M in Chipper Jones
That leaves a total salary of 84.47M – meaning we could add an additional ~6M to the roster I came up with.
This roster assumes a few things: Chipper Jones does not retire by the beginning of the season, but is still unable to play at a productive level. If he is back to the Chipper of early August 2010, then I say:
Omar Infante LF
Martin Prado 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Brian McCann C
Jason Heyward RF
Matt Kemp CF
Freddie Freeman 1B
Alex Gonzalez SS
Matt Young stays in AAA and Melky becomes the 4th OF.
If he tries during Spring Training and then retires, I imagine he restructures his contract and gives the Braves plenty of flexibility for a midseason acquisition if needed.
If he retires before Winter Meetings, than that leaves an additional 13M (plus the original 6M) for the Braves to make a big splash in FA. Also, you could nix the Kemp trade, keep JJ, and use ~28M to sign a CF/LF and/or a 3B/2B.
All in all – it will still be a productive winter for the Bravos.
Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.
by Wren_and_Stimpy on Aug 26, 2010 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
matt young...
imo, has more value than melky cabrera. i hope the braves dont tender him a contract. as of right now, fangraphs thinks melky should have paid the braves 2.1 million to let him play for them this year. aside from an arm he gets to show off once every 20 games, he can do absolutely nothing above replacement level.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I’ve watched Matt Young on CSS the last 3 nights, he is a blast to watch. I hope they can find room for him as 4th OF/utility type.
Heyward is pretty good
Just devil’s advocate: granted, it’s the organization’s own fault, but we do not know how Young will produce at the ML level. We already know that Cabrera is servicable, at least.
Even if Young starts the year back in AAA, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up during the year, even at least just as a pinchrunner/late inning defensive replacement in a double-switch (a la Brandon Hicks).
Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.
by Wren_and_Stimpy on Aug 26, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Under what rationale?
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Any?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Aug 28, 2010 5:41 AM EDT up reply actions
what 2 prospects are you giving up for kemp?
i’m not so sure that jurrjens isn’t enough, he’s a fantastic, cheap, young pitcher who already has a history of success, straight up trade seems pretty fair to me
"I heard that Tits was "well rounded" and his brother Cans was a "stand out." :D"
by Old Braves' Fan on Aug 18, 2010 3:05 PM PDT
by BravesRaleigh on Aug 26, 2010 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
No prospects name-worthy. No Teheran, Freeman, Vizcaino, Delgado, Diamond, etc. Probably something like Cody Johnson and a low-level catching prospect for Martin’s replacement.
Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.
by Wren_and_Stimpy on Aug 26, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather not trade Cody Johnson
he’s still young, so maybe he can be one of those players that spends a ton of time in the Minors, fixes his problems and develops that power comes into the MLB at 26-27 and becomes fantastic(Ryan Howard type)…I think he is capable of doing that as he is only 20 or 21
Jason Heyward...great guy
Trade Cody
Drop him like a bad habit. He is not getting it done. I would rather have a player that hits 300 and bangs out 30-40 doubles than a guy that hits 25 HRs and Ks 150 times. People have the long ball on their mind too much in baseball now. That is just not productive to me.
the dude just turned 22…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Aug 27, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Would you say he has a plethora of home runs?
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
Well played, sir
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Aug 27, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
But...Chicks Dig The Longball.
What is both surprising and delightful is that spectators are allowed, and even expected, to join in the vocal part of the game.... There is no reason why the field should not try to put the batsman off his stroke at the critical moment by neatly timed disparagements of his wife's fidelity and his mother's respectability. ~George Bernard Shaw
But that won't get it done.
The Dodgers have Kemp signed on a two-year deal, and while they are frustrated with him, they won’t give up on him yet. Besides the frustration and problems seem to be between Kemp and the coaching staff, and with Torre likely gone, a new staff will be in place next year.
Why the hell do you want Vazquez?
he has been awful in NYY and is throwing about 86mph…not impressive
Jason Heyward...great guy
And you can’t trade draft picks. You’d be giving up prospects.
Not the same thing.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
This assumes they offer him arbitration and he refuses…coming off this season, and looking at the Yankees current v. desired rotation, I’m guessing they don’t offer.
Two spots are potentially open, but one closes up if Pettitte decides to return. The other will presumably reserved for Cliff lee.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
the Dodgers would need
the Braves to send back either Vizcaino or Teheran and the Braves don’t want to do that at all. In order to give up Kemp, we would HAVE to start with either one of those and JJ.
JJ + Vizcaino + Matt Young for Kemp and C. Withrow
that would make me happy.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 27, 2010 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Great
I love your post, except i don’t see us picking Javy back up. I also do not see us trading JJ for Kemp. I see our rotation of Huddy, Hanson, JJ, Minor, and Lowe. I do see us picking up Crawford though, well atleast i hope we do.
Admired as a saint. Defined by my rank. Combined with my strength. My time and my length.
Sorry
Was intending to reply to Wren_and_Stimpy
Admired as a saint. Defined by my rank. Combined with my strength. My time and my length.
No problem.
It doesn’t really matter; we won’t spend the money it takes to get Crawford, which is probably a good thing because he’ll get too much money over too many years.
Ben
I think I posted these same general ideas the other day, so I agree 100%. CF is really the big question mark heading into next season. Farnsworth, saito, and wags are all out the door. Mclouth or Ankiel are gone (though I hope for both to leave). One of Lowe and KK has to be dealt. KK will be the easiest to move simply bc of his contract.
by murph35 on Aug 26, 2010 10:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Anyone else remember when this Jordan Schafer kid was our CF of the future? Ohhhh the glory days.
"I heard that Tits was "well rounded" and his brother Cans was a "stand out." :D"
by Old Braves' Fan on Aug 18, 2010 3:05 PM PDT
he still could be…anyone who thought he would be up by 2010 after having a serious wrist injury was kidding themselves…Hopefully he gets healthy and is back to the player we thought he was next year….he needs to be healthy to be successful and I dont trust that he is back to 100% yet.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I really hope somehow he can just come back 100% and still be our CF of the future.
But the chances seem so low.
by steeeeezzzzzz on Aug 26, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Schafer desperately needed work against LHP. Between the 50 game suspension and the injury, his progress in that area has been greatly retarded. At this point, I wouldn’t expect him to make enough progress to be an everyday player until 2012.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
at which point he would be what 25-26 years old and still before his prime producing years…..and Id be very happy
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Go internal
Rotation
Hudson 9M
Hanson 0.4M
Jurrjens 3M
Minor 0.4M
Beachy 0.4M
Pen
Venters 0.4M
Kimbrel 0.4M
Moylan 1.5M
EOF 1M
Dunn 0.4M
Marek 0.4M
Saito 3M
Line up
Infante 2.5M
Heyward 0.4M
Prado 2.5M
McCann 6.5M
Gonzo 2.5M
Freeman 0.4M
Diaz 3M
Cabrera 5M
Bench
Ross 1.625M
Conrad 0.4M
Young 0.4M
Timmons 0.4M
Hinske 1.5M
Total salary $47.425M, Lowe, Kawakami, McLouth…we can afford to DFA them all!!!!!!
Heyward is pretty good
I don't think our outfield would be solid with Diaz and Melky full time.
though I think Melky could have a breakout year sometime. I still wouldn’t be satisfied with it. :/
by steeeeezzzzzz on Aug 26, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going for cheap!
Heyward is pretty good
Honestly, it drives me crazy that our big contracts seem to be holding us back.
Lowe, $15M, we have better at AAA
McLouth, $6.5M next year, lost ball in high grass
Chipper, $13M, 6/‘09-7/’10 hit .230
Kawakami, $6.67M, capable but we have as good or better in Medlen, Minor and Beachy
D Lee, $13M, SSS but sporting a bad back
Farnsworth, $5.5M, Farnsworthless
Chipper deserves his contract for taking less for years and years, the others have us somewhat hamstrung, especially McLouth.
Heyward is pretty good
We’re paying very little of Farnsworth’s and Lee’s contract.
When you look at other pitchers of his type Kawakami really isn’t overpaid and would probably get about $6-7M on the open market.
McLouth just sucks this year.
I doubt we have better than Lowe at AAA.
KK + prospect for Figgins this offseason...
count it!
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I’m really hoping for this. If Chipper does come back, Figgins could slot in at either LF or CF. Historically he’s not a stellar CF defender, but neither is McLouth, so if he can at least maintain his bat while out there he’s still a massive upgrade. A guy with his kind of positional flexibility could go a long way in helping shore up this team, despite the fact he’s not a superstar/slugger.
Remember, this is MLB, not the NFL
We can DFA Lowe, Kawakami, and McLouth, but we still have to pay them!
my stab at the 2011 atlanta braves...with chipper
He’s going to come back. There’s too much on the table for him not to come back. This hasn’t really been discussed much, but if Chipper’s healthy, Prado could be a left field candidate with Omar playing a full-time 2nd base. I really think it would be a move that the Braves wouldn’t shy away from. If the Braves go internally for left field, they have to pick up some power for center field, and that power has to come from the right side. I really do think that all hands point to Cody Ross. He’s a non-tender candidate, rakes against lhp, and plays adequate defense. With Cody, we get Matt Kemp production without the price tag.
Major Moves: 1. Sign Cody Ross 2/14 million 2.Trade KK for Chone Figgins (Chone becomes Omar, the Braves super utitlty man)
Major Goodbyes: Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, Kyle Farnsworth, Rick Ankiel, Takashi Saito, Billy Wagner, Eric Hinske
SP: Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Lowe, Minor
Around the Horn: BMac, Freeman, Infante, Gonzalez, Chipper
Outfield: Prado, Ross, Heyward
Bench: Young, Conrad, Ross, Figgins, Canizares
Bullpen: Venters (closer), Moylan, O’Flaherty, Kimbrel, Marek, Martinez/Beachy, Dunn
The lineup would be incredibly balanced and could match up quite well against tough lefties or righties:
lhp: 1. prado 2. chipper 3. heyward 4. c. ross 5. bmac 6. gonzalez 7. freeman 8. infante
rhp: 1. prado 2. chipper 3. heyward 4. bmac 5. freeman 6. figgins 7. infante 8. gonzalez
I could really get used to that team.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
Where does he play??
He’s got a whopping 75 games at first during his nine seasons in the minors. Conrad is the backup at 3rd, assuming that Figgins doesn’t play there when Chipper is out of the lineup.
I understand everyone’s admiration for Timmons, but you’re going to actually offer a good reason for him to join the major league club other than the fact that you like him.
He’s not taking Chipper’s spot, he’s not taking Figgins’ spot, and he’s not taking Conrad’s spot. There’s not a spot for him on this roster. Meanwhile, you’ve provided no backup SS because Figgins doesn’t play there and Omar’s in the starting lineup.
Also, your lineup w/ ross catching against lhp is just not realistic. C is not a platoon position. Ross may get some games in while McCann rests against a lhp, but it’s not going to be anywhere near a platoon situation.
I’ve several other issues, but these are the main ones.
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Aug 27, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
my lineup...
doesnt have david ross platooning. reread the post.
and just because omar is the regular starter doesnt mean he can’t backup ss. if alex g goes down during a game, move omar to short. it’s not that difficult. with the way this team is set up, you have a good backup at every position with many a guy able to play multiple positions.
i didnt put timmons on my original roster. i said i like him. i didnt say that i’d give him a spot.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
Trade Lowe and his 2 years $30M remaining salary somewhere, don’t expect anything in return just him gone.
Trade Kawakami and his $6.7M remaining for salary relief.
Trade McLouth for whatever you can get.
Non-tender Diaz, decline options on Ankiel and Farnsworth.
Resign Hinske for 2 years at $4M per.
Sign Ted Lilly for 2 years $24M.
With extra money from higher ticket sales and the playoffs we should have a little extra money. Use it to sign Werth for 6 years $102M. Move him or Heyward to LF, let Melky take CF full time.
go to mlbtraderumors...
and look at the 2011 starting pitcher free agent list. there’s no way we can trade lowe this offseason.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I think Lowe + 15M to the Mets would be our only hope of unloading him.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
I agree that to move him we may have to eat some salary but if its that much your better off keeping him.
I think the Yankees could be a target. Vazquez is a FA and Pettitte will likely retire. They will need a veteran to fill those spots.
The SP FA class for next year is nothing special. A lot of guys in the same mold. Most of them have injury questions. Lowe’s durability could help us move him.
Agree there
If I were the Yankees, I would not bring Lowe to the AL east at this stage. His FIP would be 5.00+.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
i disagree...
there arent many aces, but there are literally dozens of pitchers on that list that are better than lowe. did you look at the list?
bedard, kuroda, bush, duchsherer, de la rosa, doug davis, freddy garcia, garland, harang, harden, livan, lee, lily, jennings, pettitte, millwood, sheets, padilla, penny, sheets, vazquez, webb, wells, westbrook, young
although some of these guys have injury history, they’re going to get signed and for much less than 15 million dollars. that’s 25 pitchers and about 20 of those guys are better than derrek lowe.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
Bedard hasn’t pitched since 2009 and no one really knows when he’ll pitch again.
Kuroda is a good pitcher but he’s older and will probably get something similar to what Lowe is owed, probably not quite as much but close.
Bush is not a good pitcher and will probably have to accept a 1 year incentive type deal.
Duchsherer has never started more than 22 games in a season, didn’t pitch at all in 2009 and has only started 5 games this year. I would call that a serious injury issue.
De La Rosa is a back end lefty and not much more.
Davis made 8 terrible starts this year.
Garcia really fell off the table this year and its unlikely any good team takes a chance on him.
Garland has been very solid and its very likely the Padres pick up his option.
Harang has been getting worse over the past few years and isn’t really worth much at this point.
Harden has major injury concerns and is another 1 year contract type guy.
Livan is old and growing ineffective.
Lee no doubt will get a large contract.
Lilly is a solid pitcher but still not much more than a number 3.
Jennings I’m not sure is even still in baseball.
Pettitte like I said will likely retire.
Millwood was terrible this season and at 36 he’s not worth much.
Sheets will probably not pitch next season.
Padilla hasn’t been bad with the Dodgers, but he is not well liked around baseball.
Penny is another major injury concern, 2 consecutive years derailed by injuries.
Vazquez has been pretty awful this year but could be a find for the right team.
Webb hasn’t pitched in 2 years.
Wells wasn’t good in 7 starts in 2009 and hasn’t pitched this year.
Westbrook is about the same as Lowe but with more injury concern.
Young has made 1 start this year and 14 last year.
Most of those guys are going to be signed by fringe teams on 1 year deals with the hope that they rebound and can be traded at mid season.
I can see only Kuroda, Lee, Lilly, Vazquez, and Westbrook getting multiyear deals. The rest have major injury concerns or have simply been ineffective.
For a contending team looking to fill a spot and have someone that they can count on to pitch all year Lowe is somewhat attractive. We will probably have to eat some salary to move him but a team will look at signing an injury concern for $4M or trading for Lowe and I think they take Lowe.
THIS, for the most part...
That list was pretty laughable in comparison to Lowe, salary be damned.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Aug 27, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
look...
i get what you’re saying, but if you think that any team is going to skip over the above listed pitchers and trade for lowe, you’re delusional.
you honestly think that a team would pass up a 4 million dollar risk for 30 million dollars of mediocrity?
the quicker you get over this mindset, the quicker you can get on with your offseason dreams.
lowe is untradeable.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
That's it.
Of those on the list, some are better than Lowe, some are injury risks, and some are mediocrities, but only Lee is likely to get more than Lowe’s $15 million per year. Lowe is tradeable, but only if we eat so much salary that it is pointless.
one more note: guys on that list i'd take over lowe, salary aside..
penny, vazquez, lily, lee, bedard, webb, padilla, pettitte (who, if i were a betting man, isnt going to retire), westbrook, garland, kuroda, duchsherer, harden, and de la rosa.
that’s 14, salary be damned, that i’d rather see starting on my own team than lowe.
as much as teams are relying on the development of young players and realizing that it’s incredibly dumb, especially in this market, to sign declining pitchers to big deals, then this list grows even more desirable, and lowe less.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I would much rather have Lowe than Webb, Bedard, Padilla or Penny.
Webb and Bedard can’t stay healthy.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Aug 27, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
well...
if the difference is 9-10 million per, then you would be in the minority.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
I’d rather pay Lowe $15M to pitch than Bedard $8M to get hurt.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Aug 27, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
once again...
minority. and you’re not paying 15, you’re paying 15 for the next 2 years.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
lowe is a #4 starter...
that’s getting paid 15 million.
if i’m a gm:
with a healthy replacement waiting, give me 1 year/6 million for bedard any day of the week. i’ll take the extra 24 million and actually get a player worth the money and take my 6 million dollar gamble.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
A gamble you're very likely to lose
A torn labrum on a pitcher?? Good luck with that. It’s a career-ender more than just about any other surgery. Best-case scenario is what, a post-op Gil Meche??
A five-year study done on labrum tears in pitchers showed 1 of 36 came back to pitch anywhere nearly as effective as they had prior to the injury.
As for the rest of your list…Penny’s pitched a full season once out of the last three, Duchsherer doesn’t have 30 total starts in his past 3 years, Webb’s thrown one game in the past two seasons, Harden hasn’t pitched a full season since 2004.
Meanwhile, Lowe’s thrown 30+ games in the last nine seasons, if he pitches three more this season, which is basically a foregone conclusion.
Lee is going to make 20+/season. Garland isn’t going anywhere, Pettitte is retired or a Yankee. De La Rosa has stated throughout the entire season that he wants to return to the Rockies, and they want him back as well. So count them all out.
That leaves Vazquez, Lilly, Kuroda, Westbrook and Padilla. The first four make 10+, and Padilla is a head-case.
Vazquez has been inconsistent from season to season since leaving Montreal, and he’s 34, so signing him long-term would basically be the same move the Braves made with Lowe, with a much less consistent pitcher at the time of the signing.
Westbrook has been fairly unspectacular since his return from surgery, but he’s proven himself healthy. Kuroda has been really good, worth his $13M (other than getting faced by a line drive last season, which is a fluke injury). That leaves Lilly, who has been healthy and decent, also worth his money.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Agree
Most of those guys are injury problems who will sign with a fringe playoff contender with the hope that they return to form and can be traded.
Lee’s price will take him out of most teams range. Lilly and Kuroda are solid options but neither is a front end guy. Westbrook is a backend guy.
Yes, Westbrook is a backend guy...
…but is he really significantly worse that Lowe right now? And I doubt he gets more than $5 million per year. That’s the problem; Lowe isn’t really better than the Westbrook’s and Padilla’s of the world now, and that makes his contract very hard to move.
well....
i’ve wasted too much time trying to convince you otherwise and vice-versa. i’m not an “i told you so” guy, but i might be about this particular argument.
agree to disagree, i guess.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
Looks like you are the one in the minority here.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Aug 28, 2010 5:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I highly doubt that I am in the minority on this one.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Aug 28, 2010 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions
have fun paying Bedard, Webb, and Duchsherer and having them not play for you. Throw Harden and his 2-3 DL trips a year on that list.
You can take Garland off that list to because there’s no way the Padres let him leave.
You can sign 2 of these guys and hope that together they make a full season of starts and pay them close to $10M together or you can trade for Lowe and make Atlanta eat some of his salary.
derek lowe...
hasnt even been worth 1/2 of his contract this year and he’s only got about 4-5 more starts to gain the other 8 million.
he’s not tradeable. i wish i could bet my life savings on it.
if you start taking people off the list, then it’s still a team filling a need. how many teams are going to be actively pursuing a free agent starter? 10? 12?
now, ask yourself this: how many teams will pursue a veteran starter that hasnt been worth his contract the last 2 years and will be 38 next year with 30 million dollars of guaranteed money the next 2 seasons.
it’s not realistic.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
To trade him we would almost certainly have to eat some of his salary or take another contract back. He’s not untradeable, no one is.
You point out all the negatives but the guy hasn’t missed a start in a long time and has been better this year than last year.
It’s going to take a larger market team with payroll flexibility to trade for him, but I strongly believe he gets moved. I’m not expecting any kind of return or even to get rid of all $30M but he will get moved.
I’d be open to taking another contract back- if it’s a CF- we got a glut of starters, and a big gaping hope in CF.
Lowe for Vernon Wells or Alex Rios is something I’d do.
May throw McLouth in there if you really have to even up the dead money.
I don't see us trading for either Wells of Rios.
Rios is producing, they won’t trade him. Wells has $56 million more left on his contract than Lowe, I think—we won’t take him.
I agree. He is not untradeable if the Braves throw in money or take back another player..
Lowe is still a productive pitcher this year. I can pitcher Seattle going after him.
Hell Carlos Silva was traded & he was worse than Lowe w/ a bad contract as well.
did you forget who he was traded for?
s
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
Of course not. See even Bradley is tradeable.
No matter the salary or problems, I still think there is a seal for Lowe out there.
Werth is not a good sign...
…but at least you are right about the money it would take. We are talking 9 figures. And Werth will turn 32 next May. That deal is going to be horrible after the first three years.
Also, nobody will take Lowe’s salary (they might take Lowe if we eat enough salary, but they won’t take the salary). KK can probably be traded for essentially nothing if the other team pays the salary. Nobody will take McLouth’s salary either.
No need to sign Lilly and he’ll get more than two years.
Ergo, we won’t really have the money to sign Werth. Which is a good thing. That would be a horrible deal in a few years. Maybe the Mets can sign him and end up with the all-time bad contract OF with Bay and Beltran.
Werth is going to be expensive and whoever gets him is going to be disappointed.
I think Lowe is tradeable but we’re going to have to eat $3-5M per season to move him.
McLouth can be moved but probably in some kind of bad contract swap.
Werth is going to be expensive and whoever gets him is going to be disappointed.
not for the first couple of years, but overall you are probably right.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
His home/away splits are pretty bad to. Almost the same number of at bats and he has 13 of his 17 HR’s in Philly. Away from Philly he’s probably a .270 hitter with 15-20 HR’s and declining power and defense.
We would have to eat more than...
…$3-5 million per season to move Lowe. Even eating $5 million, that makes him a $10 million a year pitcher to his new team, and he just isn’t worth that.
If we had to eat more than $5M he’s not worth moving. To sign Lilly or Kuroda its going to cost about $10M a season. So your better off keeping him.
That's the thing, however.
If a team could sign Lilly or Kuroda for $10 million per year, why would they want Lowe for $10 million a year—-Lowe is older and not as good as either of Lilly or Kuroda. We’d probably have to eat half the contract to move him; put him at a Blanton price more or less. I don’t think that is particularly worth it, either.
Lilly or Kuroda...
could get more than that, up to Lowe’s $15M or higher. Lilly makes $12M this season, Kuroda $13M, and even with their age you’d have to figure they’re going to get raises based upon their production.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
If Lowe were a free agent...
…he wouldn’t get $10 million a year.
yea he probably would
Lee and maybe Lilly are better options than Lowe
My Two Cents
Resign Glaus for similar contract. Plays 3B until Chipper is ready to go. Platoons/backs up Freeman/Chipper afterwards.
Diaz resigned (Org likes Diaz). If McLouth can’t be traded then they platoon in LF. If traded Hinske resigns.
Trade prospects for Ellsbury (may be out of favor in Boston) or Sizemore (Indians rebuilding).
Braves could win with:
Ellsbury/Sizemore, Prado, Heyward, McCann, Glaus, Freeman, Gonzo, Diaz/McLouth
or later
Ellsbury/Sizemore, Prado, Heyward, McCann, Chipper, Glaus/Freeman, Gonzo, Diaz/McLouth
I like the idea of trading for Ellsbury or Sizemore, but there’s no way (IMO) either one is traded. Nor do we resign Glaus, especially to play 3B because a) Omar could play 3rd with Prado at 2nd or b) Prado could play 3rd with someone like Young at 2nd and Omar off the bench.
Carpe Diaz
something that needs to be addressed...
we cant hit lhp. prado, infante, and alex g all have reverse platoon splits (what is is with rh venezuelans and their ability to hit rhp?) and heyward, mccann, and freeman all have pretty massive splits. that leaves chipper (who’ll probably ops around 800 against lhp).
grady sizemore has terrible numbers against lhp. ellsbury is pretty even from both sides, but will cost a ton in prospects to acquire (he’s under team control for 3 more years). matt diaz and cody ross really address a need. diaz will be too expensive through arbitration, but maybe the braves can work something out on the cheap. cody ross rakes against lhp (his career numbers against lhp are actually better than that of diaz) and is a non-tender candidate.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
Where does this notion
That Diaz is going to be too expensive through arbitration come from??
Are there a boatload of players that play ~81 games/year with a slash line of 237 /.287 /.426 /.713 that are making some serious arbitration loot??
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Yes, you moron.
I should have paid closer attention to his career averages than this season’s numbers.
Still think we can avoid arbitration and sign him at a decent rate…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
arbitration...
doesnt it have more to do with service time than numbers? i mean, isnt that why francoeur made 5 million this last year, because he was probably going to make 6 mil through arb. diaz will make atleast 4 million which is really expensive for a player that’s putting up his current line.
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
also...
i really like diaz and i think he could be a very valuable part of a platoon, but i really do think that the braves will go into this offseason with intentions of moving prado or infante to lf and concentrating on gettting value in cf. i could get used to this lineup:
prado
infante
chipper
heyward
bmac
gonzalez
freeman
cody ross/mclouth (if he can bounce back through a strict platoon)
Smelky is not a good player. Noone can convince me otherwise.
The thing no one has addressed yet, is what is going to happen to Cash? Re-upped, traded, sent down? I think Cash has all its options left, too.
"Jason Heyward was a Greek philosopher reincarnated as a baseball player." - Don Sutton
my guess
is that he will be traded…the braves have shown they don’t particularly have Cash in their future plans or we would have seen him already…
by forgotten_glory on Aug 28, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
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