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Kris Medlen Pitch f/x

This is the pitch f/x data from Medlen's major league debut against the Rockies where we got shutout at the Ted 9-0.  Wow, I actually forgot how terrible that game was.  

Medlen pitched well the first three innings and then completely imploded in the 4th:

 R. Spilborghs singled to left
- R. Spilborghs to second on wild pitch
- G. Atkins walked
- R. Spilborghs to third on wild pitch
- C. Barmes walked, G. Atkins to second
- A. Cook hit by pitch, R. Spilborghs scored, G. Atkins to third, C. Barmes to second

I had most of this data on my computer back in December.  Never got around to publishing it till now.

I think for the pitch f/x data I might have filtered out the 4th inning since he was all over the place.  Interestingly enough, Kris Medlen's 2 seam had more velocity on this day than his 4 seam, but small samples of course.  His fastball has good vertical movement and below average horizontal movement.  I think I filtered out the 4th inning from this data.

You might want to skip down a bit to the pretty flight path graphs if this stuff below doesn't make sense.

 

Velocity (mph)

Horizontal (inches)

Vertical (inches)

% Thrown

Fastball

88.95

-3.64

10.59

44.26

2 Seam

89.38

-8.08

7.42

14.75

Changeup

79.87

-7.83

6.69

22.95

Curveball

78.18

4.95

-3.49

18.03

I like the movement on this 2 seam and it's especially good when you compare it to his fastball.  It's weird how Medlen's fastball favors vertical movement more than a standard fastball while his other pitches tend to favor horizontal movements.  For most pitchers, you tend to see them favor one or the other based on their arm angle.  I'd like to see how Medlen grips his pitches.

This graph below is similar to the above table.  Basically, imagine you are the catcher and a ball is thrown at you with no spin and no outside effects like wind/air.  That ball would land dead center at (0,0).  At (-3.64, 10.59), the vertical of 10.59 inches on the fastball means it moves 10.59 inches higher than you'd expect from no spin pitch and the -3.59 inches means it's moving to your left (the catcher's left).  This is due to the grip and the resulting spin.  Picture yourself as the catcher and it should make some intuitive sense.  I believe a typical 4 seam fastball is around -5 horizontal and 9 vertical.  Guys with fastballs that are straight as an arrow will be something like -3.5  horizontal, 6 vertical.  Craig Hansen is the first guy who comes to mind for me.

 Kmmove_medium

Star-divide

Thanks to Harry Pavlidis for his modified spreadsheet that I used for these flight paths.  If you didn't like the first part, this should be a lot easier to digest.  Note the line is where the ball crosses home plate.  I think these get bigger when you click them. Here's the first base view of Medlen's pitches:

Kmfp1b_medium

I'm so rusty with this that I'm not sure if this is good or not.  His curveball's vertical movement is pretty good relative to that fastball, but I'm not sure if the hump is too exposed.

Bird's eye view.  Again, the line is where it crosses home plate.

Kmfpbird_medium

I like the horizontal separation in his pitches.  It looks like he's someone who should pitch the sides of the plate to take advantage of his horizontal movement as opposed to someone like a Ben Sheets with a 12-6 hammer curve or Rich Harden with the disappearing circle change.  Someone really needs to teach Medlen a pronated cutter.  That pitch would help him more than anything and he'd get separation like Roy Halladay does on his Cutter/2 Seam combo.  Now if he could just throw 4 mph faster with impeccable control...  I do have a Roy Halladay data set from his duel with KK last year.

Home Plate (Catcher's View)

Kmfphome_medium

Yeah someone teach him a cutter please.  He already has good control so Medlen would be nasty, nasty with a good cutter.  This was my addition to Harry's spreadsheet and I think I need to work on the proper sizing for this view to make it more convincing.

Overall, I like Medlen's stuff.  Nice and simple with good horizontal movement.  His control is pretty good too so I think he'll be a good big league pitcher.  Oh and I just realized that since this data is old and I'm so out of it, for all I know he could already be throwing a cutter.  Maybe I'll review the current Medlen some other day.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

Comment 13 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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IDK

He already has two nasty pitches (fastball left, curveball right)

Teaching him a cutter just wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the league. Nice write-up by the way!

"I think the Tigers really overpaided here" ... 2/21/2010 by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Johnny Damon signing for $8 Million

by scstrato on Jun 7, 2010 10:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I love when people post these. It truely shows how hard it is to hit pitchers when the pitcher is locked in and everything is coming from the same arm speed/angle.

"Give him the heater Ricky."

by Pavy848 on Jun 8, 2010 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

You know what

I didn’t notice how good his curveball was. It actually has really good movement for its velocity.

by VictorW on Jun 8, 2010 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

1. Hanson
2. Teheran
3. Vizcaino
4. Delgado
5. Medlen

Sexy.

(Yes, Jurrjens is gone, I’m assuming since, you know, Scott Boras.)

by BravesRaleigh on Jun 8, 2010 1:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Minor?

I still think Medlen is bullpen bound, perhaps closing next year if Wagner follows through on retiring and forming a lockdown 8/9 combo with Kimbrel.

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 8, 2010 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

any chance?

the braves let jurrjens get his spot back in the rotation. hopefully he gets back to his #2 starter form, and then the braves use him as trade bait for a position prospect or two?

i feel like at least one of minor/viz/delgado/teheran will become a top tier mlb pitcher and jurrjens is expendable at this point.

by jerryclore on Jun 8, 2010 3:29 AM EDT reply actions  

i honestly

thought we would trade J. J. this winter. I could really see him being moved this summer with the way Medlen has pitched. We could see Lowe or Kawakami moved to the pen. I have always thought that one of them would be a great reliever.

I just want Medlen to stay in the rotation. He had an interview last year where he said that he pitches better as a starter because he gets to work on his stuff more and pitch on a more consistent basis. As a reliever the only time you pitch is when you’re called into the game. Other wise you do nothing to keep your pitches fresh

by drumzalicious on Jun 8, 2010 5:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

If he’s healthy and back in form this year then you’d have to think he’d have to fetch a Bedard or Haren type of haul.

by VictorW on Jun 8, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

rec'd.

I’ve missed these. You should compare this awful start to his great start the last time he was on the mound.

"UNLIKE CYBORG REYES JOJO MY CPU DOES NOT REQUIRE 'EARNED RUNS' FOR NOURISHMENT"

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 8, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions  

At this rate I’ll have it done by December.

by VictorW on Jun 8, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

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