Our future rotation

like Vazquez was this past winter. With Minor looking like he’ll be ready by next spring (and I’d assume a September call up to get his feet wet), that gives us some excess. We’d still had Medlen, and perhaps Ortegano, among others to battle Minor for the 5th slot. But as it currently stands, I’d assume he is in the rotation next year, with Delgado and Teheran starting the year in AA or AAA ready to come up should Kawakami falter.

But for next year, that means we have to dump someone to make room for Minor. With Hudson and Hanson locks, you’re looking at the trio of Kawakami, Lowe, and Jurrjens. Kawakami has numbers that don’t really reflect how well he pitches, and at his price, I’d assume we’d get very little in return for him. With that in mind, it makes little sense to deal him. Lowe makes the most since to deal since he’d be owed $30m between next year and the year after. But that keeps teams away, and unless he pitches excellent the rest of the way, the market for him won’t likely be much. But if he gets interest that doesn’t involve us eating $10+m, we’d almost surely take the offer and let him go. That would be the ideal. But then that isn’t very realistic to think someone else will want to give Lowe $15m for next year and 2012, so we’re likely stuck with him.

So if KK and Lowe are still around, that leaves us looking to deal Jair (ala Javy last winter). If he comes back healthy the rest of the year and pitches how he’s capable (sub 4 ERA with consistent quality starts almost every time out), he’d bring back a pretty good package. He’s not that expensive yet, as the first arb year isn’t nearly what he’d get if he were in years 2 or 3, but he won’t be as cheap as he has been, or as cheap as Minor, etc would be. So while you’d rather keep him for at least one more season, dealing Lowe and then probably JJ after 2011 when Teheran, Delgado, and perhaps one more from Vizcaino, Hoover, Lopez, etc, are ready, if he’s the only reasonable offers we got for a starter, than you move him.

Trust me, I’m a huge Jair Jurrjens fan, but business is business, and moving him (if you can’t move Lowe) makes the most business sense. Between Jurrjens or Lowe, an OF or two, a reliever or two, and perhaps even Escobar, I think we could have a very active winter.

You forgot our knuckleballer, Lance Niekro.

I see Medlen in the bullpen. He’s done fine as a starter, but we have enough of them as is, and with Wagner’s pending retirement and Kimbrel still being somewhat suspect, especially in the control department, I wouldn’t be shocked if Medlen is closing games next year.

I’d be shocked if he’s still playing 2012. Maybe we could trade for someone such as Mark Reynolds or Pablo Sandoval? Swisher won’t cut it.

you only got 6 in the pen and Med’s will be a Swing and Gearrin will be the Set Up

Aren’t the Braves having some sort of Home Depot deal where if you spend 100 in store you get free tickets? At the very least, it shows that Blank knows the Braves exist..

“I learned this the hard way. Find smart people, pay them, pay who they tell you to pay, and get the fuck out of their way.”

Looking at the Falcons, I think Blank knows that already.

is just not applicable. tommy was the #2 prospect in baseball. jojo…not so much.

Agreed, I’d like to see a progression rather than a swift change.

I think we’ll have about as much chance of getting rid of Lowe this year as last. KK could be a trade deadline guy next season, perhaps as soon as this year if he continues to pitch well and we need a bat. Otherwise, I don’t see us rushing into getting rid of anyone.

Minor will be up late this year, but I don’t see us rushing to give him a starting job until at least halfway thru next season. The rest come after that, as a lot of these contracts get closer to their end. But, like I said, no rush. No need to push someone, get their arb/FA clock ticking earlier than necessary.

-C

it will go
2011
Hanson
Hudson
Lowe
KK
Minor

2012
Hanson
Hudson
Minor
Teheran
Delgado

Because JJ has 3 ARB years lined up where he’ll command more than 3.33 mill per and he’s a Boras client.

Medlen was pitching out of the bullpen for inning-long stretches before Jurrjens went on the DL. Since then, without being stretched out, he has gone 6.1, 5.2, and 6 innings. How is that being “satisfied with 5 innings?” He’s averaged 6. You can’t ask for much more from a second-year swingman.

I’m sorry, I don’t speak Spanish.

especially since his production the rest of this season will be a huge factor in any possible trade, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say this year, like last year, we’re going to have a bit of excess starting pitching under club control and will likely move at least one from the opening day rotation. Of those 5, Jurrjens seems the most likely to be moved.