Short Term Fix (Outfield)?
by lingsched on May 8, 2010 8:27 AM EDT
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PrintI think this has been addressed here, but I wanted to basically conglomerate the thoughts into one post to see if I was missing out on any possible solutions. Basically it boils down to the fact that we're pretty much stuck with 2/3 of this outfield unless Wren has some tricks up his sleeve.
There's no cavalry in the Minors that could bail us out at this point with Schafer still a ways off (and the organization not wanting to rush him). There's no real attractive FA's lurking (Sheffield, Dye... no thanks). Basically the only relief that could be had is via trade, and we'd have to part with valuable pieces to get anything worthwhile. I for one don't think it would be worth it to see potential future talent leave when there is no guarantee that the trade will get us to the promised land (See: Mark Teixeira).
So we wait. Maybe give Matty D some more PT over Melky and hope that this was just a slower start than usual. Pray that McLouth somehow works out of this funk and starts looking like the guy in Pittsburgh we traded for. I'm pretty sure no one thought that outside of Heyward our OF would have a combined OPS of .527, 2 HR, and 15 RBI at this point. I did not think it was possible for our offense to take a step BACK after last season, but somehow they did. At least we have Freeman in the wings if we decide that the Troy Glaus experiment needs to come to an end (I have actually been encouraged with his hitting lately, he just has run into loads of bad luck). With the OF I see no short term fix in sight outside of a complete turnaround. I know Omar got some playing time in the OF last season. Could this be a possibility once Yunel comes back?
I've heard statements about how we should expect these players to return to their career averages by the end of the season. There was a post on ESPN about the gambler's fallacy which pertained to that idea, and it may be worth a read: http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?id=5157660.
EDIT: Additionally, with our struggles against LHP is there a concern about how LH heavy this lineup might be in the future (assuming we stick with Nate for another year)? Depending on how we arrange the order we could be setting up other teams for more effective use against their LOOGY (not to mention it seems like we are facing a LHP every other day).
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Their stats may not look like their career averages
at the end of the season, but they will probably regress to their averages for the rest of the season. So their end-of-the-year stats will be slightly worse, but for the rest of the season they’ll hit like they were supposed to.
The Jordan Schafer Fan Club.
That’s not how averages work.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 8, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
its exactly how predictions and averages work.
its called the gambler’s fallacy
if the odds are 50/50 and you lose 5 times in a row, there is no guarantee you’ll win the next five, you have to remember the odds are 50/50. so you’ll win the next 2.5 out of 5 (theoretically)
for our purposes, if chipper is a lifetime 300 hitter and he is hitting 220 now, we do not know that he will hit 380 until his avg for the season is 300. what we can guess is that he will hit 300 for the rest of the season.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
If he gets to his career average, he will have to hit above it.
If I average drinking 5 root-beers a day, and by lunch I have only drank 1, that means I will drink 4 more before the end of the day to reach my average.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
If what you say is true, then that means that Chipper will not hit his average on the season – which goes against the law of averages.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Over a given period of time, you can expect the same production from players based on how they played.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
you are so sadly mistaken im not even gonna waste my time, you are violating like every law of logic there is right now
simply you’re a huge disappointment
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
How? The law of averages say that if by a season’s end Chipper Jones hits .310, and he is currently hitting less than that, then he will hit better than .310 to reach his season average.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
FYI you are drastically misinterpretting the law of averages
the law of averages states over the population the average will bear out. However, as you are applying it, it does not work. You are trying to say over a sample the avg will bear itself out, which is not true.
The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall “even out” within a small sample.
As invoked in everyday life, the “law” usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle.
there is however the Gambler’s fallacy, which is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. i.e. if chipper hits 200 for a month, and his average is 300, then he will inevitably have a month of batting 400.
you can tell that the gambler’s fallacy is a bad thing, bc it says fallacy in it (fallacy=untruth=bad)
Additionnaly, we do not have the population for Chipper’s career batting avg yet, all we have is a growing sample, so we don’t have a true average yet. we only have the average of the sample. and you can’t use that as evidence of what his true skill level is (at least not as you are where you think his average is a fact, it is merely a probability of what his true skill is).
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on May 9, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What was this post about? You start out talking about a short term outfield fix, then say there isn’t one and all we can do is just keep playing the same guys. So what was the point of even saying it?
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I said at the beginning
To see if anyone else had any ideas as to possible solutions, or if this is what we are resigned to. Maybe it was to see if anyone had some optimism to lend to the topic… I don’t know. The thought kind of just hit me that we could just be stuck with this as our OF for the rest of the season and I was hoping there was another answer. I couldn’t find one, but maybe someone else had an idea.
There's trades...
which would be what the rosterbation post is for. As for now, yeah, this is what we got. Trades are unlikely for at least a few more weeks, and there is no near ready player coming up in the system like say a Stanton for the Marlins this year, or Julio Borbon for Texas last year. We got what we got, for now.
I wasn't asking trade ideas per-se
More of just gauging if trading young talent would be worth it. Theoretically there could be trades to be had that wouldn’t involve giving up any coveted prospects (like we did with McLouth). I guess at this point if they were performing better than what we are getting it would be worth it.
Speaking of different looks in the OF
Bobby gives Hinske a try in LF… This would fall into the category of something I had not considered.
Why not Jermaine Dye?
He would be a short-term fix. I know he struggled mightily in the second half, but it’s worth a try. I don’t think he’s done just yet.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
I am pretty sure
He has turn down 3 million dollar offers. I dont see the Braves going beyond that
by UltimaParadox on May 8, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, in the national league...
…Dye can’t DH. And his defense has been brutal for years.
Let Diaz start left field instead of Melky
Diaz kills lefties. Melky hits righties better but not by much. Also, Diaz could hit 20 hrs if he is given enough playing time
the same Diaz who is well below the mendoza line at this point in the season. the same Diaz who isnt hitting for any power and is not getting on base via walks.
Im a big fan of Diaz, but he’s not hitting at all
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
The same Diaz who's had far less playing time than McLouth or Milky?
Yes, right about now I’d be more than comfortable with giving him the everyday shot and at least see if he can do better. Lord knows he couldn’t possibly do any worse.
Hinske.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we have to keep running McLouth and Diaz/Cabrera out there until at least the end of the month with an occasional start here or there by Hinske. If these guys are still hitting under .200 then its time to look at guys like Mitch Jones and Brent Clevlen in AAA. If somehow we are actually in contention a month later then we can consider making a minor deal for someone though I dont really see it happening. I’m hoping to see Schaefer sometime this year and then perhaps add a LF in FA in the offseason.
Mitch Jones and Brent Clevlen
i just cringed
can we get shafer up here in june?
lets see how mclouth, diaz, and cabrera are doing when we call him up. Maybe keep 2, maybe none, but better to get shafer up here and see how it is before we start thinking about trades
I don’t know if it would be a fix, but I’d love to see this guy play at a big league level. I love his OBP and speed.
by Michael Pesce on May 10, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
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