Braves at Phillies Series Preview: City of Taserly Love

Is something in the water up in Philadelphia? The Phillies fans have been acting peculiar lately--even by their high standards. First was the Vomiting Bandit, and then this week two different Phillies fans disrupted games by running onto the field. The first intruder was even tased by an overweight Philadelphia policeman (is there any other kind?). I wonder what we're going to see next... Perhaps two fans getting into a fistfight in the middle of the field? Regardless, I hope the Braves have been practicing their self-defense moves (knee to the groin, everyone!), because they might just need them in this series.

Even aside from dealing with the fans, this will be a tough series for the Braves. Though they do miss Roy Halladay this time around, 2 of the 3 Phillies starters are lefties. Jason Heyward might not be available to play in the field during the series, either. Now would be a great time for Matt Diaz to discover his hitting stroke (and everyone else, for that matter).

Pitching Matchups

Friday, 7:00-- Derek Lowe (4-2, 5.18) vs. Jamie Moyer (3-2, 5.70)

Two masters of the DerekLoweWin face off in the series opener. Lowe has 1 DLW and Moyer has 2 (the only pitcher in MLB with more than 1). I bet Kenshin Kawakami throws up whenever he sees these guys' records. He hasn't pitched any worse than they have but he's 0-5 and they're a combined 7-4.

Moyer has pitched exactly 6 innings in each of his 5 starts so far. He has given up at least 4 runs in every game but one, though (the game he pitched against the Braves, of course). Weirdly, he's given up 5 runs 3 times but is 2-1 in those games. In his last start, he picked up a DLW versus the Mets, giving up 5 ER on 6 hits and 2 homers; he struck out only 2 but didn't walk anyone. If the Braves can get the ball off the ground against him, they should be able to score some runs.

(The rest of the pitching matchups, plus a breakdown of Ryan Howard's weird season, after the jump...)

Saturday, 3:00-- Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.55) vs. Joe Blanton (0-1, 5.40)

Medlen makes his first start of 2010 in this game, filling in for the injured Jair Jurrjens. The Braves hope to get 70-75 pitches and 5 innings out of Meds. His longest relief outing this year was 3 innings and 44 pitches, so I'd be happy if he could get through 4 without giving up too many runs. Jonny Venters will probably follow Medlen and try to get the Braves at least through the 6th inning.

Blanton will be making his second start after returning from his season-opening DL trip (he had a strained oblique). In his first start, he pitched fairly well against the Cardinals for 6 innings but gave up a 3-run homer in the 7th and ended up taking the loss.

Sunday, 1:30-- Kenshin Kawakami (0-5, 5.47) vs. Cole Hamels (2-2, 4.42)

KK tries once again to pick up his first win of 2010, this time against the potent Phillies lineup. Hopefully he can put it together and start pitching well, just like he did last year around this time.

Hamels has been very inconsistent this year. He has 3 bad starts (including one in which he gave up 4 homers to the Diamondbacks), 1 so-so start, and 2 phenomenal starts. One of those phenomenal starts was in his last outing, in which he took a shutout into the 9th inning of a 1-0 game against the Cards. He would give up the tying run before being pulled, however, and ended up with a no-decision.

Stat of the Series

Roy Halladay has a 1.61 ERA. Combined, all other Phillies starters have a 4.74 ERA.

Question to be Answered: What's Up With Ryan Howard?

Superficially, Ryan Howard's numbers do not seem worrisome. After all, he's hitting .280 with 5 homers and 20 RBI. The power numbers might seem a tad low, but nothing too weird. Something weird is going on, though. Howard only has 7 walks this year (2 of which were intentional). That's fewer than noted free-swingers Jeff Francoeur, Ichiro, and Alfonso Soriano, and the same number as Bengie Molina. In fact, Howard's walk rate of 5.6% is less than half his career rate (12.6%).

Is anything else different for Howard this year? Let's compare his 2010 numbers to his career numbers in 4 categories: batting average (AVG), isolated power (ISO, which is just SLG minus AVG), walk rate (BB%), and strikeout rate (K%). First, here are his career numbers vs. the NL average:

Wow. Look at that ISO--it's literally twice the average player's ISO. He also walks a ton and strikes out a ton (no surprise, right?). Now, here are his 2010 numbers vs. the NL average:

Notice any differences? The most obvious is his walk rate, which has plummeted from well above average to well below average. His power has also shrunk dramatically this year (though it is still very good). Meanwhile, his strikeout rate has improved significantly (though it is still below average).

All this adds up to Howard putting the ball in play much more often than he normally does. For his career, Howard has put the ball in play in only 52% of his plate appearances. This year, that number is 68%. Why is that? Let's take a look at some of his peripherals.

First, let's look at his swing rates. So far this year, Ryan Howard has swung at just over half the pitches he's seen (50.7%). That's a fairly high number (28th in MLB), and it would be the highest of Howard's career (previous high: 49.1% in 2005). What is more interesting, though, is when pitches he is swinging more often. Howard has swung at 71% of pitches in the strike zone, which is actually below his career average of 72.5%. On pitches outside the zone, however, Howard has swung at 35%. That might not seem like a large number, but it's WAY higher than his career rate of 26.5%. In fact, Howard's career high in this metric is only 27.3%. That helps to explain his plummeting walk rate, since swinging at pitches outside the zone naturally will lead to fewer walks.

As more evidence that Howard's approach to the plate is different this year, let's look at his contact rates. Overall, Howard has made contact on 73.2% of the pitches he's swung at this year. That is a very low number (11th worst in MLB), but it is much higher than his career rate of 67%. That means he's been whiffing a lot, but much less than usual, which helps to explain his lower strikeout totals. Howard's improved contact rate is particularly notable on pitches outside the zone; he has made contact on 52.4% of the balls that he's swung at, which again is not a very impressive number but is much higher than his career average of 39.7%. All that adds up to a lot of extra contact for a guy who is known for his "ability" to swing and miss.

I don't know exactly what is going on with Howard. Perhaps he's trying to emulate his new teammate, Placido Polanco (the King of Puttheballinplayistan). Perhaps he's trying to prove all the critics wrong. Perhaps he's compensating for an injury. Or maybe it's all just random noise (it is a small sample size, though the stats I've cited aren't usually as erratic as stats like batting average). Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.