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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Braves' Pitching Prospect Arodys Vizcaino Shows Promise

Here are some snippets from a Baseball America article (sub. req.) by Ben Badler on Braves pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino:

While Vizcaino's fastball is at least a plus pitch, his curveball is his best offering, a wicked 80-83 mph bender with nasty bite. Vizcaino was brutal to hit against once he got to a two-strike count, showing the ability to change the hitter's eye level by getting him to chase a high 94-95 mph fastball or bury him with a sharp, late-breaking curveball. [...]

Vizcaino threw just three changeups against Greensboro, one of which went to the backstop. Right now it's a distant third pitch, one he probably won't even need until he reaches the upper levels of the minors. Vizcaino admits he doesn't like to use his changeup much because, as he put it, "I just love to throw curveballs." [...]

All 10 of Vizcaino's strikeouts were swinging, most of which were against his curveball.

Together with Julio Teheran, the Braves have two outstanding pitching prospects who will be making their way further up the Minor League ladder fairly soon. Arodys was always advertised as the real gem in the Javier Vazquez trade, the equivalent of a mid-first round draft pick who is advanced for his age. The Yankees may get two picks out of Vazquez, but Braves fans should be more than satisfied with Vizcaino. Now if only we could get a little more value out of Melky Cabrera...

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Sounds like his stuff is more electric but you’re right, he needs to work on that changeup. Maybe we need to push him to a point where his changeup is needed. Sounds like he can dominate the Sally league right now with just his heater and curve.

by ajones2522 on May 6, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Melky...

If only.

I was deeply saddened when I saw his name on the bottom scroll that day.

by XBEARDX on May 6, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I've read that a splitter can wreak havoc on a pitcher's elbow

regardless of if that is true or not, I’d rather see him develop a nice changeup. He’s got plenty of time.

R.I.P Jazz #6

by was385 on May 6, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just brought up the splitter because he seems uncomfortable with the changeup right now

That doesn’t mean he can’t pick up on it down the line, but if it did give him trouble a splitter would be a good option.

P.S. any pitch can wreak havoc on an elbow

by Qtips on May 6, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

On the PS...

I thought the splitter was one of the most stressful.

by Mr. Sanchez on May 6, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Vazquez keeps pitching like he has...

The Yanks won’t be getting much for him, period. He’s yet to reach 6 innings in any start this season and his ERA is floating around 10…

I think he’ll be out of New York and back in the NL after the season…but where?? Maybe we can get rid of Kawakami and sign him back, but we still have a ton of talent to fill the rotation in coming years.

Either way, I think this proves that his first Yankees stint wasn’t a fluke, he just can’t pitch well in pinstripes. It’s not a bad luck thing…he’s already given up 1/3 of the walks and HRs he did during all of last year and we’re only a month into the season. All his runs are earned and he’s averaging just four strikeouts/game.

Anyone who wants to yell and scream about how this was a bad trade for the Braves now, feel free to speak up…

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

It was a bad trade for the Braves for the major league team for this year unless they trade Vizcaino for Adrian Gonzalez etc. Overall value is TBD.

by redwards95 on May 6, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you want to look at it that way, we traded a guy that’s been horrible on the mound for a guy that’s been horrible at the plate. Seems like a wash at worst to me…

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're assuming

that Vazquez would be just as bad with the Braves. I don’t think that would have been the case.

by Cracker! on May 6, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're assuming

that Melky would have been this bad with the Yankees. I think that might have been the case…

We can play what-if this all day long, but at the end of the day, you have to look at the numbers or continue to play in Imagination Land. Fact is, your perception of what Vazquez might have done has less merit than the numbers pertaining to what he actually has done.

I thought Heyward would become the next Albert Pujols by June, but he’s no more Latin now than he was at the beginning of the season.

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let’s keep our heads on straight and realize we are looking at an extremely small sample size.

by eaheckman10 on May 6, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

if you thought that, you’re an idiot, but it doesn’t mean that my assumption is invalid….as the poster above suggests the sample size is too small to declare Vazquez a bust. That wasn’t even my point.

If Vaz stayed in ATL, where he was happy, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he may be performing better. That along with the thousands of other variables that would be different.

And yes, Melky would be just as bad with the Yanks, because he’s not a very good player.

Calling the trade a wash already, on May 6th, is premature. The weather is real nice here in Imagination Land. How is it over in Prickville?

-C!

by Cracker! on May 6, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lol at the last sentence. Don’t they determine type A/B status based on the player’s last 2 or 3 years prior to FA? If so he could still fetch them a pick. I mean Tommy G. was pretty stank at the end w/ the Mutts his last season, thus costing the Braves a 1st rounder when they signed him.

Vaz’s 1st season wasn’t a fluke, he got injured. He was pitching real well the 1st half. Even his overall numbers that year were far & away better than what he;s done this year. Even at Vaz’s worst he;s always struck out alot of guys. He’s not even doing that this season. So it’s a pretty good bet something is going on with him, either off the field or on.

I didn’t like the trade for this year mainly because of Milky. But I am glad we got this Arodys kid.

by FitzFan on May 6, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last 2 years, if I’m not mistaken.

Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...

by Smoltz's Beard on May 6, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I never said your opinion was invalid. I stated that it holds less merit than actual numbers. You know, the numbers generated on the field and not in your head.

And, yes, it is a small sample size. But it’s also extremely troubling. His walk-strikeout ratio is horrible and he’s giving up homeruns at an alarming rate, even before his last abomination. There haven’t been any unearned runs that could be blamed on the defense. It’s all on him.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m rooting for the guy. I hope he does better. But, looking at the numbers, it’s not entirely promising. There’s nothing that stands out in a positive direction.

I didn’t call the trade a wash, I called their comparative performances this season a wash. I’m looking at the long haul, which appears to be very nice for us. We traded a guy with a single year on his contract for a guy that should pitch quite a few years for us at a very high level. That’s a great value trade, in my opinion.

I’m not the one complaining about how the trade went, as you are. I’m not the one evaluating the trade on a single year basis. “It was a bad trade for the Braves for the major league team for this year unless they trade Vizcaino for Adrian Gonzalez etc.” That was you, not me. So, who’s being premature? You already have us chasing a new first baseman, when we have a guy that has been showing signs of life recently, a guy that has had plenty of production in the past.

Even worse, you want to trade a guy that will play for us for years (Vizcaino) for another guy that’s a year and a half rental. You’re already suggesting this, and it’s only May. So who’s playing the role of Henny Penny??

Thank God that Frank Wren hasn’t offered you the keys to the kingdom.

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Laughable

I guess, well look out Ted Williams, because Randy Gress is a .400 hitter. You can’t say….. I know it’s a small sample size BUT and then make a declaration. You look like a fool when you do.

Secondly, your claims aren’t true. I did:
a) complain about the trade
b) Say “It was a bad trade for the Braves for the major league team for this year unless they trade Vizcaino for Adrian Gonzalez etc”
c)Want to trade a guy that will play for us for years (Vizcaino) for another guy that’s a year and a half rental
d) Act in any Henny Penny fashion
e) Care to take Wren’s job

But, what I did do, which you are again wrong, was respond to you when you insinuated the trade was a wash because it was retarded and premature.

Thanks for playing.

-C!

by Cracker! on May 6, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Normally, I’d let my small typo slide, but I have a feeling you won’t notice if I don’t point to it with a huge f’ing sign.

That is a list of things I did not do. Check your facts.

by Cracker! on May 6, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I owe you an apology...

Most, if not all of that, was misdirected at you from another poster. And so, I’ll apologize for that.

Obviously, my spite button got pressed prematurely, and I did a little ranting on a number of posts I lumped together that aren’t attributable to you. That was unfair of me.

However, I completely disagree on the sample size, in a pitcher’s case…especially when there are as many overriding factors involved here. There’s nothing to suggest that he’s going to get better before he gets worse.

I’ve seen pitchers struggle only to catch fire later, but usually there are some extenuating circumstances, such as poor defense behind him or it just being a couple fluke dingers.

In Vazquez’s case, it’s been flat-out horrible performances. The issue of walks going way up and strikeouts going down isn’t usually a simple adjustment that can be tweaked and fixed quickly.

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe not

It’s a guessing game. You use numbers to aid that guess.

What you can’t do is use numbers to try and answer a hypothetical situation, i.e. Vaz’s performance being bad if it remained with the Braves this year.

I argue nothing else.

by Cracker! on May 6, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Minor league pitching depth...

is so deep that we really need to look at trading for some bats. we have freeman and shafer down there, but this season is showing that we need some quality hitters. I know pitching wins championships, but it seems like the braves can take journeymen and make all stars out of them, we need to work on developing more hitters.

by awix on May 6, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree

Who knows how Salcedo will turn out. I’d be more comfortable trading an arm for Chipper’s eventual replacement.

by Cracker! on May 6, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

So i guess Vizcaino is going to be a reliever.

by drumzalicious on May 6, 2010 12:34 PM EDT reply actions  

You're right, let's just give up on the kid now...

I mean, he’s already 19 and he doesn’t have a plus changeup to go with the great fastball and excellent curve??

You’d think that with the three months (or so) of tutelage he’s received with the Braves organization, he’d have Glavine’s circle change down by now…

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

thank you for being a reasonable human being. At 19 he probably has at least one year probably two left of training till he goes whoop ass on the NL east.

by jdeuel3868 on May 6, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha You should stop baiting people. Baseball is serious business.

by Sparhawk on May 6, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

A friend just said the Braves put Heyward on the DL.

Anyone know if this is true?

Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.

by taney71 on May 6, 2010 2:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Heyward not on DL

He’s listed as day-to-day on the Braves website. Heyward is quoted as saying “In my mind, I’d like to be back out there tomorrow, but more than likely, I’d say they’ll be a little more cautious than that. I’d imagine I’m going to be sore tomorrow. But I’d like to say a day, two or three.”

Jason Heyward is the reason that Chuck Norris parks his car in a garage.

by Joseph_C on May 6, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

only good part about that

is Matt Young might would get a call up. Then if he plays good we ship out Diaz and have our fulltime LF’er in Matt Young who can also lead off

Young LF
Prado 2B
Chip 3B
McCann C
Glaus 1B
Heyward RF
Escobar SS
McLouth CF

POW!

by drumzalicious on May 6, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you would trade a proven .310 career hitter in the majors to make room for a guy who’s a 27-year old minor leaguer who’s hit about .280 with no power in AAA?

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on May 6, 2010 4:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

to add on...

i know Young has the high OBP and could be a leadoff hitter, but there’s no way I’d move Diaz to clear up a spot. Now if you got rid of Melky it’d be a different story…

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on May 6, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Depends on if the FO plans on offering arb to Diaz again...

or if they’d prefer an OF next year of Schafer, Heyward, Melky, and McLouth (with Young or whoever else in the mix).

by Mr. Sanchez on May 6, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

isn’t Melky arb. eligible too? If the FO keeps Melky and gets rid of MattyD i’ll punch something. Melky isn’t even that great of a defender and his bat has been even more awful than it has been in the past.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on May 6, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

the thing is

Melky is essentially the perfect 4th OF. He is a switch hitter and can play all 3 spots. Diaz can only play LF and a terrible RF and is a RH Batter. So plain and simple Melky is more versatile and more suited for a bench role.

by drumzalicious on May 6, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, hopefully FO can convince another team of that too and trade Melky. :)

Diaz is the man!

by Sparhawk on May 6, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Versatility is nice, but production is more important, imo.

I really hope Melky can get it figured out. I’m not looking for heroic numbers, but there’s a point at which versatility can run its course. I’d rather play the same guy everyday and let him flourish half the time than have a guy do anything and everything at a sub-par level.

But we’ll see…it’s still May. His splits don’t really show him to be considerably better or worse early or late, but I’m hoping to see some signs of life soon.

-C

by cthabeerman on May 6, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

i mean

if next year we are having great seasons from Schafer, Heyward and possibly McLouth his only job is to give us an option off the bench late in the game or to just give someone a day off and hit in the 8 hole. he doesnt have to be an amazing hitter if he is barely playing one full game a week.

by drumzalicious on May 7, 2010 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Vizzy, JT and Hanson = the future.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on May 6, 2010 3:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I’m not as high on him as other are on here and I feel like Hanson, JT and Vizzy could all be aces while I see Delgado as more of a #2. They’re all great prospects though, that’s for sure.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on May 6, 2010 5:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

As young as they are, and as successful as they've been...

Delgado, Teheran, Vizcaino, Lopez, and others are all about impossible to project. All have great stuff, with I’m thinking 2 plus pitches each, and a fastball in the mid 90s with good movement and control. Sounds like they all could be ace/#2 level. And be honest, how big of a difference is that anyway? Is that like the difference between Glavine and Maddux, Wainwright and Carpenter? Lincecum and Cain? Yeah, I’d be happy with either one of all those pairs.

by Mr. Sanchez on May 6, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

That’s what I keep trying to tell people.

by Sam Jethroe on May 7, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward Son

Heyward is available to pinch hit tonight but he’s not feeling that great about a quick return to the field. Said he could miss 2-4 more games after tonight. So I’d say he’d be doing well to be back in the starting lineup before the Phillies series is over.

by Nova Scotia Steve on May 6, 2010 5:23 PM EDT reply actions  

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