Kawakami vs developing young talent.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 5:38 PM EDT
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Smoltz Beard wrote:
FWIW, it’s not that I mind that idea of KK going to the bullpen in favor of Medlen, it’s the manner in which most people who support the decision are unwilling to give Kawakami the benefit of the doubt even after he proved last season that he could rebound after a rough start. Not to mention the fact that the defense and offense have done nothing to help him out.
And I wanted to respond this quote
First of all, let's leave support aside (bullpen, offense and defense).
Should the Braves give the benefit of the doubt to Kawakami while he regains his form?
In my opinion, teams should be constantly developing players instead of waiting for mediocre veterans to step up.
The Braves have now 2 pitching prospects ready to start: Kris Medlen and Scott Diamond.
Wouldn’t it be better to develop Diamond and Medlen in the majors now? They could be mediocre (as Kawakami) but could be better in the future. Besides they are cheaper and the team has 6 years of service time.
The Braves did that last year with Tom Glavine. He was cut and replaced with Tommy Hanson. If things had gone wrong, it might have been Hanson producing the same as Glavine. They don’t cut Kawakami because he is owed 7 million this year and 7 million next year while Glavine could be released for free.
Roster spots are valuable and it's a waste of resources not to use them the right way. People here know about Medlen, so I'll go deeper with Diamond:
I know Diamond is not in the class of Tommy Hanson, but this guy doesn’t have anything left to prove in the minors. His FIP last year (3.26) has been his highest in the minors. And it was the third best FIP in the entire AA leagues, not just the southern. His tRA was 3.85 in 138 innings which was 10.7 pitching runs above average. And after a mediocre start of this season he has 3 consecutive excellent starts.
Maybe he is the next Mark Buerhle, or maybe he is the next Damian Moss, JoJo Reyes, Chuck James or any other soft tosser lefty the Braves have promoted in recent time.
Maybe the Braves should try to find out instead of giving the benefit of the doubt to someone who will not be in the organization after next season.
The worst that could happen would be Diamond and Medlen being as bad as Kawakami is pitching now.
I ask all of you. What are the Braves going to do if next year one of the five big pitching prospects breaks out in a big way?
Are they going to keep Lowe and Kawakami pitching this way while one or two of the kids are destroying the minor leagues and knocking at the door?
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Because he is pitching great in Mississippi and should be taken in count
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 5:42 PM EDT reply actions
24 in AA, mediocre season stats, a couple good starts, and not a top prospect. Sorry if I’m being a downer but I think he’s got a ways to go before he’s in the conversation. Medlen I agree with however.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Mediocre stats?
Maybe you should look beyond ERA and W – L records.
Third best FIP in the entire AA last year (among starters), very good tRA.
If you don’t know what’s tRA, maybe you should look this:
http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html
and this:
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
20 walks in 45 innings
I’m not an expert but from the things I’ve heard here and there he doesn’t have amazing pure stuff and doesn’t throw all that hard. My biggest concerns are that concern, him being 24 in AA, and basically living on a pitch that very few younger players have really come across. Medlen is in this conversation but unless something drastic happens I don’t see Diamond getting any meaningful time in the majors this season.
R.I.P Jazz #6
See if the Yankees want to swap Lowe for Vazquez, now. lol
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"i’m going to keep stats on you for as long as it humors me….target is unclear" - BMacAttack (Hohn's queef)
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on May 19, 2010 5:45 PM EDT reply actions
Ha ha ha, maybe
Yankees fans absolutely loathe Vasquez. They still blame him for the Damon grand slam. But they seem to forget Kevin Brown had left the bases loaded.
I still don’t understand why Torre put Vasquez in that spot if Esteban Loaiza was pitching great in that series. Vasquez had been shelled in game 3 too. I still don’t get it.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m genuinely surprised that the Yankees didn’t take Lowe. If anybody could handle such a deal it (of course) would have been the Yankees. Their loss. Javy wants to be a Brave.
Vazquez was in the Bravito Zone.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"i’m going to keep stats on you for as long as it humors me….target is unclear" - BMacAttack (Hohn's queef)
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on May 19, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Cashman is in charge in New York
The days of the Yankees making the Omar Minaya move are over.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
But Lowe’s really not that bad. I could see him doing fine playing for the Yankees.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"i’m going to keep stats on you for as long as it humors me….target is unclear" - BMacAttack (Hohn's queef)
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on May 19, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is Scott Diamond?
Maybe you should look these minor league web sites and see the stats of Braves prospects:
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks
i don’t know a lot about our pitching prospects except for a few that i’ve heard a lot about around TC. i was just wondering why there wasn’t more buzz or hype around him
Because he doesn't throw 95 MPH
This baseball obsesion with pitch speed is beyond me. But the numbers are there. He has been efective in every stop he’s been.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
The numbers were there for Chuck James too
…and in spades at that. We know how that worked out. Mike Minor and Jonny Venters would get shots at the rotation before Diamond.
Johnny Venters ain’t in Scott Diamond’s league. Venters has never had a tRA below 4.87 in the minors. And that was way back in 2007 in Myrtle Beach. His best Fip (3.76) was also that year in A+.
In AA and AAA his respective tRA has been: 5.38 and 5.76 and his FIp has been 4.12 and 4.40.
Diamond’s Fip has never been ABOVE last year’s 3.26. And his tRA has also been lower than Venters’ in every stop he has made.
About Chuck James: His Fip in AAA was 3.41 and 3.70.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
are you sleeping with Scott Diamond
Sickel doesn’t have him in our top 15.
Perhaps you should have said Mike Minor and people would stop thinking you’re sucking Diamond balls.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 20, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike MInor is in his first year in professional baseball. There is no need to rush him.
Was Martin Prado ever a big time prospect? No, he never projected as more than an utility infielder. But he kept producing and kept improving and then Kelly Johnson left the door open and won the job.
Some prospects need the chance to show what they are made of. If his numbers in the minors show Diamond is doing great, then let him show what he is got.
If he sucks, he sucks, but there is a possibility he can succeed and be a valuable bullpen arm or a modest 5th starter for the minimum
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 20, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Diamond's old for his league.
Not that it means he’s not useful, but I see him more as a bullpen piece late this year or next, not as a starter on the Braves. He could start for the Pirates or Nats, though… Think they’d give us Adam Dunn for him? :)
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backwards in a mirror." ~George Carlin
Last year he was 23 in AA. His peripherals are way better than Johnny Venters has ever had. He deserves a chance in the bigs.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Venters would be like 5th choice for 5th starter so that really doesn’t prove Diamond deserves it
The Jordan Schafer Fan Club.
Could you please look at statcorner.com
And look Venters’ and Diamond’s statistics? Just go and take a look.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 20, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
One is succeeding at AA, the other in the majors...
I can see that pretty well. Diamond has good numbers, in his first two seasons. This year not so much. Go and take a look. Needs to get his walks under control. He’s a good pitcher, but I assume the front office has a reason for putting the two where they are, and they respective numbers this year kind of prove it.
by Mr. Sanchez on May 20, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
1. Venters peripherals say he is going to dissapoint. His tRA is 4.78 and his X Fip 4.61. Both mediocre numbers and in line with his minor league numbers. If you evaluate pitchers with ERA you are in the jurasic age.
2. Front offices tend to understimate young talent and prefer veteran “experience”. That’s the reason Medlen will be a reliever when Jurjens comes back from the DL. And that’s the reason Diamond won’t get a chance with the team, and that’s the reason Lowe and Kawakami will get the benefit of the doubt; because they are veterans, and they’ll ignore their mediocre performance for 1 and a half season.
3. Diamond had a rough start, but his last 3 starts are more indicative of his talent. The kid is ready.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 21, 2010 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Look kid, you may be judging on tRA and xFIP alone...
but just cause I don’t agree doesn’t mean I’m evaluating on ERA. I’m looking at things like WHIP, K/9 and BB/9 too, in addition to FIP, ERA, level of competition, etc.
Medlen is a reliever in part because of his size. Another part is Jurrjens has been a successful starter his first two years in the league. Maybe not as good as his ERA last year, but still a damn solid starter. Hudson and Hanson are no brainers, and the salary of Lowe and KK tends to slot them in starters slots too.
Diamond will get a chance eventually if he keeps performing like this, don’t worry. But right now there is a bit of a numbers crunch, and apparently the front office thinks he needs more time refining his craft than Venters and others. We’ve got a lot of solid Ps around right now, including guys like Mike Minor, Jose Ortegano, and Chris Resop. The only one even thinking “Diamond won’t get a chance with this team” is you. If he keeps performing at the level he was the last two years, and the last three games, he’ll get his chance.
tRA and xFIP are good for the majors
Where ball-in-play data is fairly reliable. I wouldn’t put a ton of trust in them for the minors as that ball-in-play data is far less reliable.
I still respect the work of people who take their time to record minor league splits.
And how about FIP? His FIP has been the one of the 5 best in AA. Fip is calculated just with HR, K, HBP and BB, reliable stats. So 3 different metrics show he is doing very good.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 21, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't argue against your point at all.
Wether or not Kawakami is getting the support is immaterial; the bottom line is the wins and losses. JJ doesn’t get tremendous support, yet finds ways to win plenty of games.
Lowe is the luckiest man alive, 5+ ERA and all the wins he gets…deserved or not, he finds ways to win.
I liked Medlen out of the pen quite a bit, but he’s also making a fine go of starting as of late.
I don’t know Scott Diamond, but I would rather have the younger, cheaper risk than older and expensive mediocrity.
by dawgs144 on May 19, 2010 6:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Pitching to the score is a myth.
Lowe has pitched worse than Kawakami.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
So, you would rather have John Garland than Zach Greinke?
That is beyond stupid.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 20, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Funny, I thought this was a question about KK or young talent.
My point was that KK can go away, I’d rather keep Lowe in there and take a chance on the young talent. That was the theme of the post, and where I went with it. It’s not stupid, it’s an opinion. I don’t recall Garland and Greinke even being in this conversation.
But I appreciate the kind words – and since you basically agreed with me below when you wrote that he doesn’t belong on a major league roster, I guess that makes us both stupid, huh sport?
Evaluating pitchers with W and L is not indicative of future performance
Smart up a little. Read some Fangraphs, Tango, Bill James before saying such stupid things.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 21, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Great job here. I was agreeing with you about getting rid of KK
and you’re still criticizing. Smooth.
Yeah, but not because he is 0 – 6.
Derek Lowe won today and he pitched horribly.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 23, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
We'll just have to agree to disagree about the reasons.
Kawakami is 0 – 6 on a better than average Braves team. He’s pitched fairly well since he came to Atlanta, not lights out, but not horrible either. For whatever reason, he’s not catching the breaks. His stats would indicate that he’s better than the end result. Future performance, the term from above, would indicate by now that he should have a lot more w’s than he does.
Derek Lowe is 6 – 4 on the same better than average Braves team. He has not pitched as well for the Braves as he has done otherplaces. His stats would tell you, uh-oh, need to be careful here. Yet he’s getting enough done to get the w’s, contrary to how he has pitched.
You like your stats quite a bit and I like the w’s quite a bit.
Same end result with different routes.
You have to separate the performance of the pitcher from the rest of factor that the pitcher can't control.
No pitcher can control if a reliever fucks up the game, or the offense doesn’t give him runs, or if the defense sucks.
There are other factors like how tight is the umpire with the strike zone.
The best example is Zack Greinke. He has been the best pitcher in baseball since september 2008. The record of the team in his starts has been 23 -25.
That’s not his fault. He has the worst bullpen, offense and defense support in the majors.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 21, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
the bottom line is the wins and losses
Is this a joke?
"Look out Atlanta. Jason Heyward is going to wow you."
-Chipper
Nope. Just an ignorant comment.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 21, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's take a step back for the moment and say that my comment above includes all pitchers everywhere,
not just the thread here.
Explain to me why wins and losses being important is ignorant. Last time that I checked, wins were what got you to the playoffs. Not necessarilly great stats.
This isn’t what our “discussion” was about, but if my remark was what got this topic rolling that’s fine by me.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
You said I couldn't read. That's why I'm putting your quote and responding
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 19, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And you still seem to be missing my point, but just forget it.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
What’s the point then? That I’m hating on Kawakami? My manner? Because I’m not doing that.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 20, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but other people are. If everyone sat down and did the research you did it’d be one thing, but that’s not the case.
"SHOULD YOU WISH TO ACQUIRE HOMEPLATE RUNS ON AFTERNOON GAME YOU MUST PRY THEM FROM MY COLD METALLIC HANDS" ~ Cyborg Hanson
by Smoltz's Beard on May 21, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t Diamond pitch great during the last WBC? Never know until he pitches. I’d love to have a good starting lefty in our rotation just to mix things up. Hopefully that will be Minor.
"You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!"
"Lollygaggers!"
"Lollygaggers"
Well, I agree with the premise
but calling up Big Scotty would require removing someone from the 40 man, and he should see AAA first anyway. He will get his chance if he continues pitching well.
Medlen will probably stay in the rotation after JJ gets back anyway (with KK to the pen).
FWIW, Zips ROS projections have KK putting up a 4.08FIP the rest of the way.
With crappy overpaid vets of course!
by TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect on May 19, 2010 8:40 PM EDT reply actions
halt the bus...back up and let KK up!!!!
tonight he pitched one hell of a game only to see his fellow Nihongene blow it!….I think I said earlier that May would be the deciding month if KK was legit….
As for Diamond he should be in AAA by mid season if he gets his walks down.
This just in...
KK is starting to pitch really well. Buckle up folks. We have lots of pitching again.
"You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!"
"Lollygaggers!"
"Lollygaggers"
The bum is 0-6. How he is on a major league roster is beyond me.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 20, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not….
by dunnytwogloves on May 20, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Would there be any credence to the theory that...
dumping KK might get us blackballed by other Japanese players?
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