Where Should Jason Heyward Hit in the Lineup?
In 2010, Jason Heyward has hit 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th.
Where do you think Jason Heyward should hit in the lineup? Should he hit 2nd to be on base for Chipper, Glaus, McCann and Hinske to drive him in? Should he hit 3rd because he's arguably the best hitter the Braves have? Should he hit 4th because he probably has the most power out of anyone on the team? 5th because he'll have chances to drive in runners and still have protection behind him? 6th because there's less pressure and it keeps our lineup balanced?
My Opinion: Heyward should be hitting 3rd. Most of you know I've been begging for a lineup with Chipper/Heyward/Glaus/McCann for weeks now and I still feel that would be the best lineup for the Braves. I know Heyward is only 20, but he's been the Braves' best hitter in 2010 and he's capable of handling it. Heyward is years ahead of his time mentally and I sincerely believe he would strive in the 3-hole.
Vote and then discuss in the comments.
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The only place that I don't like him is 4th.
I think Glaus slots perfectly in that position. Other than that, I voted 6th, but I don’t have a problem with him batting 3rd. I’d rather someone else bat 2nd…maybe Prado if McLouth ever hits like he should be able to, and I think McCann is a natural fit at 5th but he’s been struggling. So ideally 6th in my opinion if everyone is hitting the way I would think they should.
And I think 4th would suit him best...
..only from the idea that he would gain protection. Typically (with this year being the possible exception) you aren’t going to pitch around Heyward to face McCann. I think you could move Glaus to 3 and Chip to 2, let McCann go 5. I feel it is the one way that he may get more pitches to hit. Just a thought though.
"It said 'Bear Left,' so they turned around and went home...." - John Smoltz
Personally I like him at 6th. He’s done his best work there (although the sample sizes are so small it’s pretty meaningless), and he just looks the most comfortable. His approach in the 2nd spot hasn’t impressed me.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
Same here.
BTW, what do you think of Red Dead?
by dunnytwogloves on May 19, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Awesome. I just created an off topic fanshot, if you want to talk about the game I’ll meet you in there!
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Without looking at stats and RISP chances while batting 2nd compaired to 6th ot 7th
It seems Heyward’s RBI potential isn’t be maximized in the two spot of the line-up…am I wrong here?
McLouth seems to be coming up a lot with a shit-ton runners on base.
by Nova Scotia Steve on May 19, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn’t that comment support hitting him 3rd?
See my combined OBP stat for Martin & Chip… 61.57% of the time, one of them would be on base for Jason AND Troy
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly why he should hit 3rd. Heyward is a monster with RISP, and is far and away our best power threat. 3rd or 4th or he’s not being used to his full potential.
60% of the time, it works every time
Maybe because our top OBP guys (outside of Hinske and J-Hey himself) are Chip and Martin?
Doesn’t that = RISP or at least runners on base???
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Thats what I’m saying? If he hits third, Prado and Chipper will be on in front of him a ton. That will give him endless RBI chances. The type of Chances that Chipper has been wasting this season (see: 9 RBI out of the 3 spot)
60% of the time, it works every time
Fail.
Chipper has not been failing with RISP. He only has 9 RBI because people in front of him are not getting on base.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Anytime someone attempts to prove their point by first spouting “fail”, I disregard the rest of their post.
60% of the time, it works every time
Well, aren’t you Mr. Internet Tough Guy.
It’s cool if you want to ignore my posts. I couldn’t care less about that.
If you want to ignore stats that directly contradict your point, that is your God-given right.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
You bring up selective stats that show Chipper may not suck as much as he has looked. You do not, however, show any stats that contradict my point. Good show tho.
60% of the time, it works every time
If by “selective” you mean “situational” and by “situational” you mean “in direct correlation to what we are talking about” then you are correct.
You said that Chipper has been wasting RBI opportunities this season. That set the perameters of the discussion. I showed that Chipper is actually hitting very well with RISP, thus negating your made up facts.
Excellent show on your part.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
But, just as I said yesterday.
Chipper Jones RISP
.286 /.515 /.476 /.991
Jason Heyward RISP
.464 /.610 /.714 /1.324
Which numbers do you want hitting 3rd?
Also, the more general “runners on”
Chipper Jones with runners on
.233 /.404 /.395 /.799
Jason Heyward with runners on
.353 /.485 /.569 /1.053
Nearly anyone can hit a single with RISP and get them in, but a true power hitter can drive them in regardless of where they are. In that situation, as shown above, Heyward has excelled while Chipper…well..hasn’t.
Now I expect you to either give a one word snarky response such as “fail” or “whooosh”, or to disregard this entire post and bring up LD%
Regardless of whether Chipper has done ok with RISP, Heyward is blowing him out of the water, which is the purpoe of this thread, to see where he belongs.
60% of the time, it works every time
+1
Nice #’s…
[only built for cuban linx]
by Mighty Healthy on May 19, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I have never once said that Heyward is not a good hitter, or a power hitter. I have simply refuted your assinine claim that Chipper cannot hit in the 3-spot – which you supported only with a “lack of power” and “only 9 RBI”.
Heyward is the 3-hole of the future. I want to see the kid play for more than 1 month (in which he has struggled somewhat recently, you have to admit) before I crown him the center of our offense as a 20 year old.
Do you understand how unprecidented it is for someone his age to hit #3 on a contending team?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you…as much as I love Heyward’s ability to get on base (and swipe a bag once he’s there), I feel like he’s more valuable driving in the leftovers from Glaus and Heap.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted 6th, too. I still think he struggles more batting lower in the lineup, and it’s because of the pressure – two of his three mini-slumps this season have happened when he was dropped down in the lineup.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because Heyward got off to the best start on the team does not mean that he is the team’s best hitter.
Heyward belongs in the 6th spot.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:23 AM EDT reply actions
And Hinske should start over Glaus at 1st, we should dump KK and Lowe.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
And you should juggle balls of lava
Glaus is a stud
see what he is using there is a bit of sarcasm, and maybe a dash of hyperbole (i’m almost positive i misused that word, but this is as close an opportunity I’ve had to use it todya so screw it)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
hyperbole: noun
Exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally.
You are correct, sir.
The birth of Jason Heyward was God’s punishment for the sins of the people in New York and Philly.
nailed it, they called me ace, i got straight Bs
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Just because Heyward got off to the best start on the team does not mean that he is the team’s best hitter.
Yes, yes it does.
Paul Konerko is the best power hitter in baseball.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Pudge Rodriguez is the best hitting catcher in baseball.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but Schnieder plays better D
Shouldn't Brent Clevlen get a shot in LF before...awww, forget it!
Truth. And apparently, Barajas has more power.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Livan Hernandez is the best pitcher in baseball
by eaheckman10 on May 19, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Not for OGT….but, because that statement just made me laugh so much.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
No, no it doesn’t.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Him getting off to a hot start doesn’t make him the best hitter on the team
Him being the best hitter on the team makes him the best hitter on the team
But no, hurr durr Konerko Pudge, etc. etc .
60% of the time, it works every time
It makes him the best hitter through 1/4 of the season though...
best hitter overall, best hitter this year, that can be determined only by what happens in the future. So far, Heyward has been our best hitter in the first quarter of the season. That is absolutely undeniable.
Well, until he proves to not be the best hitter on the team, why not believe in him to be so?
60% of the time, it works every time
Because he is a 20 year old rookie.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm not going to get in between you two and your argument
but I agree with you that age doesn’t have anything to do with it. Heyward is one of the most gifted players to come into the league in the past 2 decades and his age is only a number. If you think he’s at the same level mentally as other 20-year olds, you’re nuts. His parents brought him up the right way and it shows. He handles himself like a 15-year veteran both on and off the field.
But like I said, you two can argue away. That’s what half of this thread is anyways.
"Batting 4th and doing the catching, says here this guy weighs 210 pounds...I'm not buyin it! It's Brian McCann."
by Scott Coleman on May 19, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that he only has a month’s-worth of MLB experience is enough of an evidence that he is not the best hitter on the team. I don’t feel like I should really have to explain that any further.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I could really give a shit about this waste of space argument, but he could point to the incredible amount of hitters brought in too early to be the face of the franchise that have wilted under such circumstances. The most recent that comes to mind is Alex Gordon, but there were plenty before him.
You could argue that he’s the exception to the rule, that he’s shown he can (at least so far) handle that responsibility and still thrive despite the extra attention coming not only from the stands but also from the mound.
You’d both probably be right.
So I suggest you both find a rusty knife, set it an equal distance between the both of you, and fight it out to the death. That, at least, would have a definitely conclusion.
This argument is fucking stupid, and you’re both morons for letting it get this far.
-C
Wow…thanks for your…input?
You know, if you don’t like it, you don’t have to read it…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Fixed...
Wow…thanks for your…input?
You know, if you don’t like it, you don’t have to read it…
-J
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh Justin
if you read my write-up, I said this:
I know Heyward is only 20, but he’s been the Braves’ best hitter in 2010
I never once said he was the best hitter on the Braves. I said he’s been the best hitter for the Braves this year.
"Batting 4th and doing the catching, says here this guy weighs 210 pounds...I'm not buyin it! It's Brian McCann."
by Scott Coleman on May 19, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
On the season as a whole? Nobody. In recent days? Several guys.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I voted this as well – with my reason stated in my post above.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t Chipper even suggest that they switch spots until Chipper gets back to normal?
by McGriff the Crime Dog on May 19, 2010 10:24 AM EDT reply actions
Chipper thinks he is “back to normal”, so I don’t think he would have said that. I think he said something like Cox has to play the hot bat – which WAS Heyward, but not so much now that he has been moved up in the lineup.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
SSS WARNING:
Jason Heyward by batting spot:
1: No PAs
2: .150 .227 .200 .427 (5 games, 22 PAs)
3: .429 .636 .571 1.208 (2 games, 11 PAs)
4: No PAs
5: 000 .000 .000 .000 (1 game, 4 PAs)
6: 359 .469 .846 1.316 (13 games, 49 PAs)
7: 244 .380 .463 .843 (12 games, 50 PAs)
9: .500 .500 .500 1.000 (2 games, 2 PAs) [Pinch-hitting]
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:30 AM EDT reply actions
This shows, in a SSS, that there is one place in the lineup where Heyward has been consistently good for an extended amount of time – the 6th spot.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
that shows nothing really. It shows that he has consistent ABs in two spots 6 & 7 and has hit well in both of them. This is pretty meaningless for drawing any valuable conclusions.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
It shows that SSS can be a bitch.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
As can my wife…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
and i dont think the post showed that at all, but i dont know ur wife well enough to comment.. ill get back to u if i find anything on the internet
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
She is a woman… that says enough…
All women can be a bitch….
Not that they all are at all times, just that they have the propensity to be…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you know that the derrogatory term “Bitch” comes from female dogs? It was due to the stubborness of female dogs that the term bitch came to describe all ornery women.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? I thought the term bitch came from when you whine about something you are bitching… Of course I knew that… come on…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
FIGHT
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
With knife-wielding lobsters!
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
ATTACK!

Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Ut hum… if I may interject:
.
Babe
In
Total
Control of
Her life.
Carry on.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
haha
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont think we needed a post on that
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I think you need to answer my question about PS3 vs PS2…which do I take with me?
(although, the base I am going to be at got attacked this morning, so there may not be a ton of time for games and such…)
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
if you dont bring a gaming system, how will you be prepared to defend against invaders?
I would bring the 2, bc u said u have more games for it and you dont want to damage a $300 PS3 in the dessert (hehe)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Ahem, that should be, .167
But then again, the whole mess is a small sample size, isn’t it? I just think, with his great OBP, he needs be near the top of line-up, and Chipper’s great OBP right next to his gives a lot of opportunities to Glaus and McCann.
His BABIP certainly is bad, but I feel like he’s putting too much pressure on himself to “be aggressive” (Bobby’s urging certainly didn’t help). Seems like he’s swinging at junk earlier in the count. Maybe I’m wrong though, I haven’t bothered to look it up.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know where you CAN look up plate discipline splits for batting order. It doesn’t seem like it’s been any different to me, honestly, he’s just having a spurt of bad luck that coincides with the batting order switch. It’s unfortunate because I think this is where he should ideally be.
And keep in mind, there’s a ton of discussions about batting order…and sabermetrically, they say the difference between the dumbest line-up possible and the perfect line-up is about 15 runs. In a season. So it’s a bit silly that this topic is drawing so much attention-I almost refused to comment on this to begin with until I saw how quickly the comment total was growing.
I agree with you about the difference between worst/best lineups, which is why I’m not getting upset about anyone’s position. He just looked more comfortable to me in the 6th spot…I’m going to make it a point to pay even closer attention to his approach when he hits 2nd though. I could just be overanalyzing, or seeing what I want to see.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Voted 3, although i prefer sixth. simply because i don’t see Bobby moving him back down anytime soon. Bobby has never been one to reverse a decision so quickly, especially if it involves admitting a bad choice. I wouldn’t mind Chipper second and Heyward third, just to see how it plays out for a few games.
"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson
I'd be happy with 3, 5, or 6 right now
I prefer 3 but think a Chipper, Glaus, McCann, Heyward lineup looks good as well.
Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.
3rd
He has absolutely shown he is best hitter on this team right now. Chipper didn’t even need to make those comments saying he would be fine switching to 2nd. Right now Chipper is the perfect 2 hole hitter. He can grind some ABs, takes a TON of walks and still has a little pop if need be. Heyward was made for pressure hitting. He has the maturity level to be the 3 hole guy now and for the next 15-20 years
by The Devil Wears Prado on May 19, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions
Please see comments above.
Heyward WILL BE a great #3 hitter in years to come, but he IS NOT that right now as a 20 year old rookie.
He absolutely is not the best hitter on the team. He had the best start to this season, but he is not even close to being the best hitter on the team.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Chipper...
Even Chipper knows and willingly admits Heyward should hit third… but nevermind that.. we should listen to Justin because he posts 1000 times per article if he knows he is right.
The argument is chipper is better suited for the 2nd spot and Heyward is better suited for the 3rd. NOW AND in the future. Chipper will be the first to tell you that what he is doing best right now is getting on base and making life tough on pitchers. Go look up ANY stat that shows Chipper is not in decline in terms of power. Heyward is absolutely ready for the 3rd spot.
Who is a better hitter then Heyward? Because the way I see it, is that Bmac and Chipper are the only real competitors and with Bmacs eye issues and Chipper just straight up being old, Heyward wins.
by The Devil Wears Prado on May 19, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Go look up ANY stat that shows Chipper is not in decline in terms of power.
His LD%, FB% are up while his GB% and BABIP are way down.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
ISO
Chippers career ISO is .232
Chippers 2007 ISO .267
Chippers 2008 ISO .210
Chippers 2009 ISO .166
Chippers 2010 ISO .136
by The Devil Wears Prado on May 19, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
When did Chipper willingly admit anything like that?
Citation please?
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps you are unaware of how burden of proof works....
You make a claim. You must provide evidence to support said claim. Citation please?
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It's in the links and past fan shots/fan posts of the last week...
are people really too lazy to look up things for themselves and have to get other to show them. It’d probably take you just as long to search google and find it as it did to type those responses.
A) I didn’t know about the thing in the fanshots and B) Even still, it’s an unattributed quote with no context.
It has nothing to do with laziness – it’s a principle. If you (I’m using “you” in the collective sense) make a claim, it’s up to you to support it. It’s not up to everyone else to prove you wrong. That’s just how it works in civil discourse – as well as in legal systems. Furthermore, it took me quite a bit longer to google it than it took to type that – 1-2 minutes versus 5 seconds. It would’ve taken longer to find if you hadn’t pointed me to the fanshots section (again, I was unaware of that post) so that I had an actual quote to google for. It’s hard to find something on google when you don’t know what you’re looking for.
And I was still right – Chipper didn’t exactly say what The Devil Wears Prado claimed. I took the time to read the entire article that the context-less quote was taken from, instead of just reading the fanshot and assuming the context. Chipper didn’t willingly admit that Heyward should hit third instead of him. He said that he’s grooming Heyward to hit third, but believes he “might” be ready. He also said that he would have some doubt about his own ability to hit third “if” he kept swinging like he was in April. He has since said that he’s happy with his swing now.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Clean-up on aisle 6!
I voted 3rd because Chip gets on base so much, and once J-Hey gets into a groove in that slot with Sloth providing some protection behind him, that can be a scary top 4…
Imagine this:
1) Prado - OBP – .369 OBP – .391
2) Chipper -
This means that on average 7 out of 10 times through the line-up, 1 of the 2 of them will be on base for J-Hey (who only has 2 GIDP) and the Slothasaurus.
3) God - SLG – .540 SLG – .433
4) Sloth -
I know the statistics of the past are not guarantees of production in the future, but it just sounds so promising…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 10:51 AM EDT reply actions
Stupid "features"
Ignore the strikethroughs
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
So based on Nixa's corrected math
This means that 61.57% of the time either Chip or Nitram would be on base for J-Hey and Sloth. Since J-Hey rarely GIDP, that means more chances for both J-Hey and TG to hit with runners on base in the 1st inning, giving us a greater chance to jump out to early leads.
There there are the next few times through the line-up…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
It was supposed to say:
This means that on average 7.6 out of 10 times through the line-up
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
You can’t combine averages like that. You would have to combine their total PAs and their total times on base, and then come up with that average. You can’t just add the two together.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
That would be 311 PAs with 75 H and 41 BB for a .373 OBP – which isn’t bad, but certainly isn’t close to 76%.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Shhhh...
Don’t point out my quack statisticary…
Can’t slide anything by you, eh?
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, a 76% OBP by two guys combined is quite high, you know?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I can always
make statistics say whatever I want them to 48% of the time…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
60% of the time, it works every time.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
You got it!
I <3 Math!
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
That's not right either
You have to take the chances of them both making an out and subtract it from 1. So (1 – .369) * (1 – .391) = .3843, then 1 – .3843 = .6157. So over 6 times out of 10, one should get on base, though this obviously ignores the possibility that one of the two makes the 3rd out of the inning or that one could get on through a FC or an E.
And before you ask, yeah I’m a huge math nerd.
Wait…what?
My head hurts…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
it’s like when you roll a dice.
If you roll a die once, the odds of any number are 1:6…
If you have 2 rolls to get a number, say the 6 for example, the odds are still 1:6 on each roll, but the odds of getting a 6 in one of the 2 rolls are higher…
based on nixa’s formula, it would be:
(1-.167)*(1-.167) = .694; 1-.694 = .306, so the odds of getting a 6 if you get to roll the die twice are 30.6% instead of 16.7% — not exactly adding the .167 + .167, but closer to that then the average of the 2, which would remain .167
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
To put it as simply as possible
You take the chance of each one not betting on base (1-OBP) and multiply them together in order to get the chance of neither getting on base. Then, in order to get back to the chance of at least one getting on base (which is equivalent to not having both guys not get on base…that’s meant to be a double negative) you subtract the chance of neither getting on base from 1.
This is really only correct for the first inning though, as things can get more complicated than that afterwards. That’s what the second part is getting at..
Plus there's the chance that the second guy grounds into a double play.
Or hits a home run. Either case results in the bases being empty, most likely.
I thought it was some formula like that
I knew it wasn’t merely their average, but also knew it was their OBPs added together…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
If anything in probability seems intuitive its probably wrong. Our brains really aren’t designed to deal with this stuff.
My brain is....
It was rewired by spending 8 years in academia……CS/Psych/Math
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
I sincerely believe he would strive in the 3-hole.
I didn’t catch that until now.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 10:52 AM EDT reply actions
3rd or 6th
3rd because Prado gets a lot of hits and chipper draws a ton of walks, and Heyward hits really well with men on base and that is likely the two guys who will be in front of him. 6th because he has well from that spot all year.
3rd
and no lower. Need to get this kid as many ABs as possible. Once he takes that 3rd spot, he won’t give it up for a loooooooong time.
I voted 3rd, he seems to be better when someone is on base in front of him. I was crazy happy when he was put at 2nd, he did well there in ST. In my eyes we need him hitting with guys on base to drive them in, and with decent bats behind him to use his speed to come around and score. I see that spot as the 3 hole. Not because he’s better than Chipper, because it maximizes Heyward.
Heyward is pretty good
3rd
Add me to the large majority who like Heyward batting 3rd. What more could you want of your #3 hitter than a guy who hits for power and gets on base? With the way Chipper is going right now (not getting many hits and not hitting for power but walking a good bit), he would be best at leadoff. Then Prado could return to his usual second slot. McCann should drop lower in the order until he gets his eyes straightened out with Glaus batting cleanup. So perhaps
Chipper
Prado
Heyward
Glaus
Hinske
McCann
Escobar
McLouth
Is this serious?
Chipper…
leading…
off…
?!?
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Where else would you put a guy who is hitting .223/.391/.359 with 9 rbi? The only thing Chipper is doing right now is getting on base. So let him do that and let Prado, Heyward, and Glaus drive him in. It’s unorthodox for sure and Bobby would never do it, but it makes sense.
I’d allow it. Only thing that would suck is that he probably can’t score from first on a double.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Chipper scored from first once earlier this season….
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Ugh…ugh…no he didn’t!
/runs away
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he is going to hit .233/.391/.359 for the entire season, and have 36 RBI at seasons end, right?
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
8 HR and 36 RBI…go Chipper!
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying...
I’m just saying…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m agreeing with you.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I know! That was for redwards, saying that you got what I’m saying…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Got ya…I fail.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Made of fail....
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Just think, 2 weeks ago, Glaus was projected for something like 15 HRs and people were all on his nuts. It is amazing how carried away people can get with early stats.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
And now
His projection would be up to 24 HR 108 RBI for the season!
Imagine what it will be if he stays hot for a couple more weeks!
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
9 RBI? Really???
Chipper Jones w/ RISP: .286 .515 .476 .991
Chipper Jones w/ men on: .233 .404 .395 .799
Chipper Jones in High Leverage Situations: .400 .519 .650 1.169
Please, don’t ever make the mistake of using RBI as an indicator of anything – other than how often people are on base in front of someone.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
2nd
It’s where he can get the most PAs, score the most runs (ie use his baserunning skills more), and probably drive in the most runs. I still think he needs to hit in front of Chipper for awhile. This isn’t the traditional way of doing things, which would be to of course stick him in the 3-hole, but it’s the more effective way.
Prado
Heyward
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Hinske
Escobar
McLouth
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
Prado
Chipper
Escobar
Glaus
McCann
Heyward
Hinske/Melky
McLouth
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
Heyward hater. yeah lets bat our best offensive player sixth in front of melky?
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
I don’t have Glaus or Chipper hitting 6th…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
you’re comical.
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
So, is everyone besides me of the opinion that this 20 year old rookie is the heart and soul of our offense? Does everyone think that he is already our best hitter? Does everyone think that he has reached his potential in his first month of baseball? Does everyone continue to heap unfair expectations on him?
The kid has looked lost at the plate for the past week or so – ever since moving up in the order.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Umm yeah. I mean how long has it taken Chipper to hit his last 8 HR? Oh yeah since July 28 of last year.
Heyward is a superstar today. Don’t act like he’s in some huge slump, he’s only had one game since coming back from injury where he didn’t get at least one hit or draw a walk. I mean hell, he’s only scored 8 runs in the last seven games since getting back in the lineup. Heyward goes and has a pair of 1-4 against Pelfrey and Johan and suddenly he needs to be hitting in front of Melkouer? Ridiculous.
I just think it’s comical that he’s set the bar so high for himself that if he just goes and has a couple pedestrian evenings at the plate you nut-jobs are calling for him to get moved down in the order or, I even heard some calling for him to get sat against Johan. And it’s really just silly, he’s been our best hitter from day one of this season.
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
Or, you could just look at his stats by place in the batting order and tell me where you think he helps the most…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Irrelevant.
Just like you said the sample sizing pretty much ruins any relevance it might have. He just got moved up and happens to not be hitting a HR twice a series in the last week. Big deal. Of course his numbers are going to be better from down in the order right now. Give him another month batting 2nd and see if he doesn’t continue to score about a run a game and be our offensive spark. He’ll continue to provide that same power but with more opportunties batting 2nd. It’s frivolous to think that Heyward won’t be able to be extremely productive hitting there.
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
The same can be true about him hitting in the 6th spot…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
But that’s just stupid. Why bat your best hitter 6th and you’re worst 3rd? It’s counter-productive to limit your best hitter’s PAs that way. And I just don’t think you’re going to have a very good time convincing the good baseball people here that Heyward isn’t our best offensive player. I mean is anyone else actually arguing that?
I don’t know what you’re trying to do. You just make a lot of noise and don’t support it with anything. Your posts in this thread don’t speak well for your reasoning skills at all.
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
by timmy3 on May 19, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he denies it on the basis that he has a different definition of “Best Hitter” than most people posting replies. I will tend to agree once he gets done with his ROOKIE season we will be able to look at it and judge from there.
He is looking long term. Most are looking at the season so far, but you cant expect someone taking the subject from a totally different perspective to always have the same opinion as you.
Playing Devils Advocate, looking at his last few games i wouldnt have him anywhere near the 3 or 4 spot. but then again my sample size just pwned your sample size like a foul ball off McCanns nuts.
Could we not have said the same about the 6 or 7 spot...
after a week or two in the frame where he was looking bad on outside breaking balls? SSS for Heyward as a 2 hitter, not saying that is where he should hit, but we can’t judge him on a cold stretch.
Looking at the past 1 year and 1 month, I wouldn’t have Chipper anywhere near the 3 or 4 spot.
Just sayin
-Devil’s advocate’s assistant
60% of the time, it works every time
I gotta say
Escobar hitting 3rd…
Right now?
Come on…
You may be able to throw some adv. stats to support it, but it doesn’t pass the eye test to me — at least not right now
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s why you gotta look beyond the “what have you done for me lately” attitude. Esco has a track record of being one of the best-hitting SS in the majors.
He is off to a slow start. Remember the conversation we just had about 2 minutes ago about how much difference a couple of weeks can make?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess I am more of the idea
That I want to see a glimmer of the production first, as opposed to putting them in the hole and waiting for the upswing to come whenever it does. I do understand, however, that the ABs are needed to help get the timing and production to begin.
For example, while I am now 100% behind Sloth, I can’t help but wonder if having Hinske in there when he (TG) was digging himself a hole early on might have resulted in 1 or 2 more wins… At the same time, it could be argued that doing so may have delayed TG’s acquisition of his timing and POWAH stroke…
It’s a quandary!
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
So, you are in favor of constant lineup shuffling and benching players?
No thanks.
Having Hinske play for Glaus would have accomplished one thing: it would have made us wait even longer for Glaus to come around.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
It could have, not necessarily would have… there is no hard evidence to prove that, just conjecture.
As for constant lineup shuffling, I am in favor of whatever wins us the game we are playing that day. Isn’t Bobby doing the constant shuffle thing anyway? Omar was on a tear, but he sits because Esco is back. Since his return, Esco is 2/13, while Omar was 10/22 in the 5 games preceding Esco’s return…
Hinske is a monster, going 12-21 in his last 6 games, and he is benched last night in favor of Melky (whom I believe we ALL hate). Melky goes 1/4, and the one “hit” was more luck than anything if you ask me… He has been under the Mendonza line for all season with the exception of 1 game, at which point he was hitting .200, and then 0-7 in his next 7 official at bats.
Isn’t that the constant shuffling you disdain, except that it is favoring putting players who are not being successful out there instead of those who are en fuego…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Justin — thoughts on this ?
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably
Not gunna like it.
Kawakami is not absolute shit, but he isn’t any good either.
by Nova Scotia Steve on May 19, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll comment....
I understand why Bobby benched Hinske – because Hinske has shown he can’t hit LHP. Then again, Melky has shown he can’t hit any pitching. I think it wouldn’t have hurt to play Hinske in that case – but it’s Bobby Cox we’re talking about.
As for Infante, even if he was hot, Escobar needed to get back in and get some ABs so he can get hot, like we all know he can. The same is somewhat true of Chipper. That leaves the question of where can Infante play? I’m starting to wonder if maybe he could play some in LF…..does Infante hit LHP well? At this point, I’m in favor of ANYONE in LF besides Melky.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Omar is a better hitter than Melky against LHP, but it’s not that impressive. 700 OPS for his career.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I am in favor of putting the best team out on the field. It is impossible to do that by going off of who was good in the last game, or the game before. You have to look at a guy’s entire arsenal.
Playing by the “what have you done for me lately” mentality is a very dangerous game.
Chipper and Esco are both far superior hitters than Infante. Just because Infante does a remarkable job in their absence in no way justifies keeping him in the lineup. If he were the better player, he would have been a starter.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 19, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with playing Hinske while Troy is struggling is that it doesn’t give Troy the opportunity to ever work out of the slump. And then what if Hinske comes in and had trouble? Do we play the matchups?
Definitely gives you a better understanding of how hard the managers job is. It’s much more than just filling out a lineup card and sitting back and relaxing.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that is a concern, which is why I said this:
At the same time, it could be argued that doing so may have delayed TG’s acquisition of his timing and POWAH stroke…
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
You don’t want to mess with the Glausosaur’s timing or POWAH stroke. You would make him very, very angry. And you wouldn’t like him when he’s angry.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
i voted 2nd, while chipper with a high obp would be great to have in the #2 spot with all other items being equal, he isn’t what he used to be on the bases and i worry everytime he kicks it up a gear that hes going to pull something. Having jhey in front of chipper allows heyward an opportunity to steal bases also it keeps heyward from being stuck station to station behind chipper
I also like in the later innings when we flip the order around ph, prado, heyward followed by the meat of the order.
Love him in the second spot
power and speed
There is not a more dangerous or powerful hitter on this team. Plus, next to Chipper, he has the best eye on this team. He HAS to hit 3rd of 4th. He has too much power and too much on base skills to be wasted at 6th and lose 3-4 ABs a week.
On the flip side, Chipper has such an absence of power, that he in no way deserves the 3 spot anymore.
60% of the time, it works every time
Plus, you want the best hitter to get the best pitches to hit. Batting him low with Melky/Mclouth as protetion does nothing but waste him. Batting him 3rd with McCann/Glaus behind him gives him protection AND gives him people to drive him in if we walks.
60% of the time, it works every time
Protection is just a myth, I’m not sure why people continue to bring it up. Baseball Prosectus did some in depth research about it. Of course, people (not necessarily you) who dismiss the advanced stats aren’t going to agree with it.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t dismiss advanced stats. I do, however, think he deserves to hit higher that 6th, especially with an OBP near .400. Why waste it with the worst hitters behind him?
60% of the time, it works every time
That’s why I said not necessarily you…good lord, what’s with people not reading the post they’re replying to today? Everyone’s in a too big a hurry to get their point out there.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I delegated one line to stating I wasn’t, then continued on. It’s not like I ranted about it.
Good lord, don’t get your panties in a wad.
60% of the time, it works every time
The one line was completely unnecessary when I went out of my way to preface the statement.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
sigh we’re spinning in circles.
You said people that dismiss advanced stats aren’t going to agree with that. That implies that the people that don’t agree are the people who dismiss advanced stats. I was just making clear that I disagree but also do not dismiss advanced stats.
60% of the time, it works every time
Fair enough.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
McCann isn’t providing much “protection” for anyone, lately. Tis why Chipper keeps getting pitched around so much…..that and Bobby hitting McCann 4th so damn much.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Be careful with that, you’ll break the internet!
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Good old Randy…
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he's an eventual 3 hole hitter
I’m not sure he can take it just yet, but considering how we are hitting he might just have to.
Heyward will eventually hit 3rd…no doubt about that. I don’t think it will come this year, and probably not until Chipper retires. however, I think with his RBI potential, he needs to hit 5th or 6th realistically. I can see batting him 4th, but I think that might put too much pressure on him just like batting him 2nd is sort of doing right now. I don’t care how mature he is, he’s still only 20 and slowly learning the pitchers in this league…we just need a better #7 hitter to hit behind him so he actually gets some pitches to hit. he needs to be hitting with runners on base though…bottom line.
You hit upon a point that’s been stuck in my head for a while now. People keep insisting that Heyward would have the most RBI potential batting 3rd, but I’m not sure that’s true. I think he’d have more (and has had more this season) RBI opportunities hitting 6th, because he’d have Chipper/Glaus/McCann before him. Then again, it could be argued that Glaus/McCann would just clog up the basepaths, limiting Heyward’s speed.
There really isn’t an “ideal” spot for RBI opportunities at this point. It would be 3rd in the order if the Braves had a true lead-off hitter – someone who hits for average, has high OBP and good speed with the ability to steal some bases. Alas, the Braves do not have that, and I’m not yet convinced that Heyward is ready for the pressure of hitting 3rd.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Heyward really is the “speed guy” in this lineup at this point. That’s more a testiment to how slow this team is as opposed to how fast he is. This is yet another reason I think he’s best at 3, even more so than 4. Even if he simply walks and doesn’t drive anyone in, he can either steal or go first to home if Glaus or McCann doubles.
Also, I don’t buy the pressure thing one bit. HR on opening day in front of packed house. Game winning and trying hits. I don’t think pressure phases this guy, much less just regarding a slot in the lineup.
60% of the time, it works every time
Just some more numbers in this clusterfuck of a discussion
ISO: (Isolated Power)
Jason Heyward = .265
Chipper Jones = .136
wOBA: (Weighted On Base Average)
Jason Heyward = .409
Chipper Jons = .345
Now, what do you want out of the 3 hitter? To be able to hit for power (Heyward has the best on the team) and to be able to get on base for the cleanup hitter and 5 hitter (he has by far the highest wOBA)
Jason Heyward is begging, screaming, pleading for the 3 spot with the way he has been playing. Chipper Jones has a great eye and a great OBP, hence he would be perfect in the 2 spot to set up Heyward and the heart of the order.
60% of the time, it works every time
The question I have, is has Heyward’s slump been caused by the promotion to the 2 hole, or is it a result of him being a human baseball player who is prone to occasional slumps?
When you've said Jason Heyward, you've said it all.........
I honestly believe his approach has changed since moving into the 2nd spot and Bobby telling him to be more aggressive.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s cut down on his K’s but I feel like it’s because he isn’t working the count anymore. Seems to be swinging early in the zone and grounding out too much.
Again, I could be way off on all of this. It’s just what I’ve gathered with my own eyes. Feel free to rip my theory to shreds, lord knows I would do the same.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He has been grounding out a lot more. Early in the season, he seemed to hit mostly line drives….
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's the direct result
of crummy luck, resulting in a .167 BABIP from the second spot, and the sample size is too small for us to even say Heyward is “struggling” because it’s a 20 PA blip. He’s also only taken I think a couple of walks, but then again, it’s only been a whopping 5 games.
Exactly. Give him some more time at the top of the order. He’s going to produce beaucoups of runs if we leave him at #2.
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
It’s more than that. This isn’t the first time this season that Heyward has gone into a slump after being dropped down in the batting order. Maybe it is just coincidental. Then again, if you moved him back to 6/7 and he immediately started hitting again, then move him lower once more and he slumps again – would you say that was enough evidence to support the theory that he struggles more lower in the order?
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on May 19, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I could care less...
Lineup positioning doesn’t matter all that much…Give me this lineup.
1. Heyward
2. Chipper
3. Escobar
4. McLouth
5. Hinske
6. McCann
7. Prado
8. Glaus
Purely random, and I bet it could score in the same ballpark as every lineup posted above
by eaheckman10 on May 19, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
you couldn’t be more wrong, but since you don’t care… i guess we could leave it at that. But, just purely looking at AB’s… wouldn’t you want your best hitters to get the maximum number of chances to swing per week? That along says.. order matters. Over the course of a year— having 50 more AB’s for each of your best hitters?… scores won’t be in the same ballpark… or even the same city.
"I should have been like, 'Thank you, new guy. Don’t try the veal!'" - Chief Noc-A-Homa (Hohn's offspring)
No, he's actually right, it barely matters.
Just based on using ZiPS projections you could expect this line-up to score 3 fewer runs over 150 games than our current line-up. I’m not kidding. If you want, play around with this tool
Insert whatever fictional values you’d like for each hitter, the most difference you’re making over 150 games is about 15 runs, and that’s going to require batting the pitcher clean-up and your best hitter in the 9th slot.
Thank you…I’m not trying to stop the debate, I’m just pointing out that it doesn’t matter much at all. And I don’t really think we should bat with this lineup, I’m just using it to make my point
I Don't Agree...
But if it doesn’t why not use that lineup?
Well
If we look at the numbers, using the tool that Bronn so generously posted above, my lineup picked out at random would score on average 3 less runs over 150 games than our current one. As to why I wouldn’t use it, it comes down to personal preference, and the fact that it would cause a great deal of comments about it (mostly negative) that are just unnecessary.
So you do care?
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner!
Well said, eaheckman10. The relative merits of whether Heyward should hit 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th are highly overrated.
And to everyone clamoring for Heyward to hit 3rd because he is our best hitter, according to The Book, 1st, 2nd, and 4th are for your best hitters, not 3rd
5th is also more important than 3rd
With crappy overpaid vets of course!
by TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect on May 19, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd
Chipper isn’t a great #3 hitter right now (no power) and with his eye, ability to take walks, ability to make contact, etc., he should be hitting second.
I’ve been saying that Bobby needs to hit Chipper in the 2 hole since Larry’s slump last year. ’course I also stumped for Matt Diaz to be our leadoff hitter this year, so what the fuck do I know?
i think we should leave Jason in the #2 hole. He went through a mini slump over this weekend and endured some bad luck (low BABIP) since being put in the #2 spot. So saying he should hit lower because he had a rough homestand so far is like saying Chipper shouldnt hit 3rd because he will have a .235 average the entire season. Lets let things work themselves out for a little while before we do anything drastic like hitting Heyward 3rd in the 2nd month of baseball.
Our line up as it is is gelling somewhat however i think the biggest problem is McCann hitting 4th. We have all said it time and time again that McCann is not a clean-up hitter. Glaus is more of a clean-up hitter and should be utilized as such. If Bobby made that one switch i think it would make our entire line-up better.
Escobar and McLouth should stay as our 7th and 8th hitters as well. Even if McLouth starts heating up him hitting 8th is really growing on me and Escobar is just a GB machine lately.
I prefer the way Bobby is actually using the clean-up spot
Which is to swap McCann and Glaus based on whether it’s a lefty or righty. Really it doesn’t make that much difference moving either guy one spot in the line-up, but whoever bats behind Chipper is going to get a lot of chances to bat with a man on, so taking advantages of match-ups to put the guy with the better chance to succeed is a good idea.
exactly, pretty much swap him and Mac based on matchups. And also Ross is going to get some starts too, so I think you slot Glaus into the 4 spot on those days. I can definitely see people wanting to hit Glaus four everyday right now, but I gotta believe Mac is going to get going. He always hits the ball hard.
"Make the most of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." - George Washington, 1794
Everything made from oil and wood can be made from HEMP. It's the earth's number one bio-mass resource.
regarding lineup configuration...
while i think heyward should be hitting 3rd and chipper 2nd, the braves are going nowhere unless bmac and chipper can start producing, no matter where they are in the lineup. this lineup can be quite good, but it relies on everybody producing.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Prado
One thing that seems pretty consistent above is Prado leading off…I feel like rest can be jumbled around and produce similar results, but I really, really like Prado at the top…I do like Glaus in the 4th spot over McCann…But this is a post about where Heyward should bat, so I’ll vote 3rd with Chipper batting 2nd and Glaus 4th, McCann 5th, Escobar 6th, Hinske #7th, McLouth #8th…
You need different lineups for RHP and LHP
so he shouldn’t be hitting in the same spot everytime anyway
With crappy overpaid vets of course!
by TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect on May 19, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions
Platoon splits
playa
With crappy overpaid vets of course!
by TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect on May 19, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Direct quote from Chipper Jones
His aim this season, he said, was to groom Jason Heyward "to be the No. 3 hitter here for the next 20 years." Here Jones laughed. "Little did I know he was laughing to himself, saying, ‘I’m already ready.’ And I believe he is ready."
60% of the time, it works every time
the Reds blog is a little odd
they have like 4 GTs a night….but they have like 300 comments in each of them. Maybe they have a bunch of 10-4s?
"Batting 4th and doing the catching, says here this guy weighs 210 pounds...I'm not buyin it! It's Brian McCann."
+1
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
This lineup solves this argument definitively
Send the entire lineup to the plate at the same time. Imagine how imposing THAT would be?
Added bonus: No Vidros.
When you've said Jason Heyward, you've said it all.........
Yunel would find a way.
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 19, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
MVHS, this has gone too far. It's time. Center above this thread and drop it.
by ATLandUNC on May 19, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Image Fail...
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
All is see is a box with the following in it:
“Upgrade to Pro today!
Bandwith Exceeded
Phoobucket”
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s odd…
I don’t use photobucket, so I don’t know how it could be my fault, but whatever…
I just have the error message; not sure about anyone else
"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." Beatrice Hall paraphrasing Voltaire. That being said, it is "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln
by Vance in Sacramento on May 19, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
error message here
Another uninnocent, elegant fall into the unmagnificent lives of adults...
by Smoltz's Beard on May 20, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I like him lower in the order. It prolongs the threat.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"i’m going to keep stats on you for as long as it humors me….target is unclear" - BMacAttack (Hohn's queef)
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on May 19, 2010 6:03 PM EDT reply actions
3rd or 4th after ASB.. 5th for now
To lump Heyward in with a ‘normal’ 20-year old rookie is foolish. He’s clearly above the curve in terms of correcting errors, making adjustments, and sheer results.
The only downside I see to throwing Heyward into the fire (a high presure spot in the order) is that he’s making his first rounds through the NL. So basically every pitcher (except for Feliciano last night) he faces, is the first time!
No doubt about it, he’s clearly the best hitter on this team, already.
[only built for cuban linx]
I would go with
Prado
McLouth
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Heyward
Hinske
Escobar
Pitcher
Kawakami - 1, Halladay - 0
I got him at 2
To be honest, I realize that Heyward might pick up more RBI’s in the 3rd or 4th spot. But you have to understand that just because youre the best hitter on the team, doesn’t mean you go directly to those spots (ala tony gwynn, jeter in the 2 during the yanks championship run). What it does mean is that he has to be placed in a situation where he makes the rest of the lineup, the whole lineup, a more potent batting force. A World Series will be hard to win if we’re saying we have one great, all-round hitter, and a buncha guys hitting below their career averages (excluding Marteeen). Heyward, to be best used, has to be in a position to score, drive-in, and create runs. The two is perfect for that role.
Lets not forget that Jason can steal a base occasionally, just as hard hit balls in between the outfielders could be 2. For a team with not a lot of speed, putting him at 3 or 4 diminishes the chances of sending him, and creating opportunities for the people behind him to start hitting. It helps them by forcing pitchers to pay attention to the bases instead of the hitters, and creates opportunities for rbi’s in the heart of the order, what every good offense needs. Also, he walks more than anyone on the team. So again, hes on the basepaths, able to go from 1 to 3 on a chip or glaus single. With Heyward on 1st base alot, they cant just throw anything at the middle of the lineup, they gotta throw strikes. Creating runs is just as important as driving them in. With Marteeen in the top 3 in hits in the NL, he will have plenty of opportunities to give us an early run or two, something that if you have been watching this year seems to be a key to victory. And, wouldn’t you know it, Prado will hit in front of him every time the order goes around.
My main point is that Jason is an all around talent, and the best hitter on the team this year, but his best worth to the team right now is helping the lineup get on track (Mccann, chip, escobar, ect). And his best chance of enhancing us, despite his early struggles at this spot, is at 2.
I’m perfectly fine with Heyward batting second, we’ve been playing well with him there, and in my eye, Chipper won’t be struggling like he is for much longer. Look at all his deep fly outs, doubles and walks. He is seeing the ball well, as he admitted, and hopefully it pays off soon.
As i’m writing this, Heyward is up with two men on (Mclouth, Prado), seems like a good spot for him, right? (He just grounded out). Chipper has been in the 3-hole a long time, and as a huge Chipper fan, i’m fine with him there. Heyward gets the most at bats, and comes up with usually somebody faster (Mclouth, PR in the 9th?, Prado) than he would batting 6th (Glaus, McCann), so he is able to use his speed on the base paths a bit too.
Mark my words, Chipper will start picking it up, and with a Prado/Heyward/Chipper/Mac/Glaus/Hinske lineup, if McCann (and Chipper) can pick it up, we might be the most dangerous.

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