FanPost

May 15th, DBacks vs Braves - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Braves using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ARI ATL R.Lopez vs T.Hanson ATL 65.40% 68.79%

 

Notes:  Both Vegas and the simulator are in good agreement as to whether or not the Braves will reach .500 after today's game.  If so, there is a chance that the NL (B)east could see all five teams sitting at or above the .500 marker.  Below is a list of the Top 150 most likely final scores from today's game.  Feel free to take a stab at the final score.  The distribution of scores is distributed rather thin, so it is a bit like picking a number on the roulette table.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 ATL 3-2   51 ARI 6-2   101 ATL 10-6
2 ATL 2-1   52 ATL 8-4   102 ARI 9-6
3 ATL 4-3   53 ARI 4-0   103 ARI 9-7
4 ATL 3-1   54 ATL 9-3   104 ARI 8-0
5 ATL 4-2   55 ARI 6-1   105 ATL 13-2
6 ATL 4-1   56 ARI 7-6   106 ATL 11-5
7 ATL 5-4   57 ARI 7-4   107 ARI 9-8
8 ARI 3-2   58 ATL 8-5   108 ATL 12-4
9 ATL 1-0   59 ATL 9-0   109 ARI 10-3
10 ARI 2-1   60 ARI 7-5   110 ATL 13-1
11 ATL 2-0   61 ARI 7-3   111 ATL 10-7
12 ATL 5-2   62 ARI 7-2   112 ARI 10-4
13 ARI 4-3   63 ATL 8-7   113 ATL 13-3
14 ATL 3-0   64 ATL 9-4   114 ATL 11-6
15 ATL 5-3   65 ARI 5-0   115 ATL 12-5
16 ATL 5-1   66 ATL 10-2   116 ATL 13-0
17 ATL 4-0   67 ATL 10-1   117 ARI 10-5
18 ARI 3-1   68 ATL 10-3   118 ARI 10-2
19 ARI 4-2   69 ARI 7-1   119 ATL 13-4
20 ATL 6-3   70 ATL 8-6   120 ATL 10-9
21 ATL 6-2   71 ARI 8-4   121 ARI 10-1
22 ATL 5-0   72 ATL 10-0   122 ARI 11-2
23 ATL 6-1   73 ATL 11-1   123 ATL 14-2
24 ATL 6-5   74 ARI 8-3   124 ATL 10-8
25 ARI 5-4   75 ARI 8-5   125 ATL 14-1
26 ARI 1-0   76 ATL 10-4   126 ARI 11-3
27 ARI 5-3   77 ATL 11-2   127 ARI 10-7
28 ATL 6-4   78 ARI 6-0   128 ATL 11-7
29 ATL 6-0   79 ATL 9-5   129 ARI 10-8
30 ATL 7-1   80 ARI 8-2   130 ARI 9-0
31 ATL 7-2   81 ATL 11-3   131 ARI 11-4
32 ARI 4-1   82 ARI 8-6   132 ATL 13-5
33 ARI 2-0   83 ARI 8-7   133 ARI 11-1
34 ATL 7-3   84 ATL 11-0   134 ARI 10-6
35 ARI 5-2   85 ARI 8-1   135 ATL 12-6
36 ATL 7-4   86 ATL 9-8   136 ARI 11-6
37 ATL 7-0   87 ATL 9-6   137 ATL 15-1
38 ARI 6-4   88 ATL 12-1   138 ATL 14-3
39 ATL 8-1   89 ATL 12-2   139 ATL 14-4
40 ATL 7-6   90 ATL 11-4   140 ARI 11-5
41 ARI 6-5   91 ARI 7-0   141 ATL 14-0
42 ATL 8-2   92 ATL 10-5   142 ATL 11-8
43 ARI 3-0   93 ARI 9-3   143 ATL 13-6
44 ARI 6-3   94 ARI 9-4   144 ARI 10-0
45 ARI 5-1   95 ARI 9-2   145 ARI 12-4
46 ATL 8-0   96 ARI 9-5   146 ARI 12-3
47 ATL 8-3   97 ATL 12-0   147 ARI 12-6
48 ATL 7-5   98 ATL 12-3   148 ATL 15-0
49 ATL 9-1   99 ATL 9-7   149 ATL 15-2
50 ATL 9-2   100 ARI 9-1   150 ARI 10-9

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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