I wanted to write something about last night's game. I really did. I mean, why not? I've been reading about the game more or less non-stop since it ended (actually, since before it began, if you count the game threads). Unfortunately, whenever I think back to those marvelous 2 hours and 45 minutes, I just cannot seem to formulate the words to describe them.
Yes, it seems Jason Heyward can do more than steal bases. He can steal the words right out of my mouth. (And my heart... *sigh*)
So I went looking for something else to write about, and lo and behold, I find this tidbit near the end of gondeee's fantastic recap of the opener:
Done and done. Your "officially call that" is my command, gondeee. For more fun facts about our new junk stat, read on.
First off, a definition of the DerekLoweWin. A DLW is any game in which a starter:
* WPA (Win Probability Added) measures how much a player improves (or hinders) his team's chances of winning a game. Here is a short primer on it. For our purposes, a WPA of -0.05 or worse means that the pitcher reduced his team's chances of winning by 5% or more. I put this requirement in there to eliminate the games in which a pitcher gets a huge lead early and gives up some runs that don't really affect his team's chances of winning.
I picked 4 ER instead of 5 as the cutoff because 4 runs seems to be a sort of magic number in terms of team's likelihood of winning a game. For instance, in 2009, check out the Braves' record based on how many runs they allowed in the game:
|Runs Allowed||Wins||Losses||Win %|
Overall, the 2009 Braves were 66-18 when allowing 3 or fewer runs (0.805 win%) and 20-48 when allowing 4 or more (0.294 win%). This type of pattern holds up for nearly all teams. It's amazing how simple baseball can be sometimes: give up 4 runs, and you're probably going to lose.
Unless Derek Lowe is pitching, of course.
WIthout further ado, here are the leaders in DerekLoweWins since 2000. I've also given each player's wins since 2000 (as a starter) and the percentage of those wins that were DLWs.
|Rank||Pitcher||DLW||Wins since 2000||DLW%|
I've got to hand it to gondeee: he called this one. Derek Lowe is indeed quite skilled at accruing DerekLoweWins. Though he's got nothing on Jon Garland.
Fun Fact: 3 of the guys on this list were opening day starters for their teams. Lowe you know about. Garland gave up 6 runs in 4 IP, though only 2 were earned. Padilla gave up 7 runs (all earned) in 4 and a third. Both Garland and Padilla lost their games, though, so the only DLW of 2010 so far is owned by Derek Lowe himself.
A few other fun facts:
Well, I hope I've helped you kill some time while waiting for the Braves to play again (seriously, making us wait an extra day for more baseball after *that* game is cruel and unusual). Thanks, as always, for reading. Here's to the last 161+ games of the 2010 season going as well as the first game did.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.