New Junk Stat: The "DerekLoweWin"
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 12:44 AM EDT
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PrintI wanted to write something about last night's game. I really did. I mean, why not? I've been reading about the game more or less non-stop since it ended (actually, since before it began, if you count the game threads). Unfortunately, whenever I think back to those marvelous 2 hours and 45 minutes, I just cannot seem to formulate the words to describe them.
But maybe J-Hey can do it? With a Peter Moylan shaving-cream pie all over himself? Yes, he can.
Yes, it seems Jason Heyward can do more than steal bases. He can steal the words right out of my mouth. (And my heart... *sigh*)
So I went looking for something else to write about, and lo and behold, I find this tidbit near the end of gondeee's fantastic recap of the opener:
Starting pitcher Derek Lowe couldn't find his way through the middle of the Cubs order, but despite giving up five runs he gets the win. I think we should officially call that a "DerekLoweWin."
Done and done. Your "officially call that" is my command, gondeee. For more fun facts about our new junk stat, read on.
First off, a definition of the DerekLoweWin. A DLW is any game in which a starter:
- Gets the win
- Gives up at least 4 earned runs
- Has a WPA* of -0.05 or worse
* WPA (Win Probability Added) measures how much a player improves (or hinders) his team's chances of winning a game. Here is a short primer on it. For our purposes, a WPA of -0.05 or worse means that the pitcher reduced his team's chances of winning by 5% or more. I put this requirement in there to eliminate the games in which a pitcher gets a huge lead early and gives up some runs that don't really affect his team's chances of winning.
I picked 4 ER instead of 5 as the cutoff because 4 runs seems to be a sort of magic number in terms of team's likelihood of winning a game. For instance, in 2009, check out the Braves' record based on how many runs they allowed in the game:
| Runs Allowed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
| 0 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 1 | 18 | 1 | 0.947 |
| 2 | 20 | 4 | 0.833 |
| 3 | 18 | 13 | 0.581 |
| 4 | 5 | 15 | 0.250 |
| 5 | 7 | 14 | 0.333 |
| 6 | 4 | 7 | 0.364 |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 0.500 |
| 8 | 1 | 7 | 0.125 |
| 9+ | 0 | 12 | 0.000 |
Overall, the 2009 Braves were 66-18 when allowing 3 or fewer runs (0.805 win%) and 20-48 when allowing 4 or more (0.294 win%). This type of pattern holds up for nearly all teams. It's amazing how simple baseball can be sometimes: give up 4 runs, and you're probably going to lose.
Unless Derek Lowe is pitching, of course.
WIthout further ado, here are the leaders in DerekLoweWins since 2000. I've also given each player's wins since 2000 (as a starter) and the percentage of those wins that were DLWs.
| Rank | Pitcher | DLW | Wins since 2000 | DLW% |
| 1 | Jon Garland | 14 | 115 | 12.2% |
| T2 | Derek Lowe | 12 | 122 | 9.8% |
| T2 | Barry Zito | 12 | 133 | 9.0% |
| T2 | Tim Wakefield | 12 | 102 | 11.8% |
| T5 | Andy Pettitte | 11 | 148 | 7.4% |
| T5 | Vicente Padilla | 11 | 91 | 12.1% |
| T5 | Livan Hernandez | 11 | 129 | 8.5% |
| T8 | Jamie Moyer | 10 | 138 | 7.2% |
| T8 | Matt Morris | 10 | 99 | 10.1% |
| T8 | Adam Eaton | 10 | 69 | 14.5% |
I've got to hand it to gondeee: he called this one. Derek Lowe is indeed quite skilled at accruing DerekLoweWins. Though he's got nothing on Jon Garland.
Fun Fact: 3 of the guys on this list were opening day starters for their teams. Lowe you know about. Garland gave up 6 runs in 4 IP, though only 2 were earned. Padilla gave up 7 runs (all earned) in 4 and a third. Both Garland and Padilla lost their games, though, so the only DLW of 2010 so far is owned by Derek Lowe himself.
A few other fun facts:
- Jack Morris is the all-time leader in DLWs with 29--way ahead of the next-highest pitcher, Roger Clemens with 20. This is perfect, since Morris is the posterboy for the "Some Players Just Know How to Win" crowd. Apparently, Morris really did know something no one else did about winning even while sucking. His DLW% of 11.4% is also third all-time behind Garland and Eaton.
- The MLB average in DLW% in 2009 was 5.3%, so Derek Lowe gets DLWs at about twice the league average rate. Adam Eaton, though, "earned" them at nearly 3x the league average rate. Impressive!
- Three players led MLB with 3 DLWs in 2009: Gil Meche, Moyer, and (interestingly) Adam Wainwright. Lowe had two DLWs in 2009: May 6th against Florida (5 IP, 6 ER, Braves win 8-6) and September 10th against Houston (5.2 IP, 5 ER, Braves win 9-7).
- Lowe has at least one DLW in every year since 2002, when he became a full-time starter.
Well, I hope I've helped you kill some time while waiting for the Braves to play again (seriously, making us wait an extra day for more baseball after *that* game is cruel and unusual). Thanks, as always, for reading. Here's to the last 161+ games of the 2010 season going as well as the first game did.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Beautiful
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."
by Scott Coleman on Apr 7, 2010 12:54 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
....
beautiful work Pac. Probably my favorite post from you so far.
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."
by Scott Coleman on Apr 7, 2010 12:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Alright mvhsbball, the bar has been set. Let’s see you beat it. :)
But seriously, awesome post!
by dunnytwogloves on Apr 7, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha
I do have something planned as a weekly post that I think you guys and gals would really like, but I’ll just keep that to myself for a little while.
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."
by Scott Coleman on Apr 7, 2010 11:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
...
I know this is off-topic, but I think you were the one that created the MLB 10: The Show fanshot back when the game came out. Anyway, last night I downloaded the Knight rosters, and played the first game of the season vs. the Cubs. With my first at-bat with Heyward, I ended up hitting a home run. It was so amazing!! It was on a 1-2 count, but it was still sweet!
by dunnytwogloves on Apr 7, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you break the game?
This Heyward kid is different. -Duk, Big League Stew
by McCann and McWill on Apr 7, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought about it!! I didn’t get goosebumps like I did on Monday watching it happen on TV, but it was still pretty awesome.
by dunnytwogloves on Apr 7, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome.
"If you were going to make a Mount Rushmore of managers, Bobby's one of them."
-Mike Scioscia
by The Keith Lockhart Era on Apr 7, 2010 2:55 AM EDT reply actions
if i pass a test do i get a degree in sabermatics?
How about a DLW=Team scores more runs than opponents.
I guess I’m just someone who doesn’t think this game can be boiled down to raw statistics. Intrinsic value just never seems to count in the equation. But factors in repeatedly whether or not you win a ballgame or not.
This team knows it has to score runs if DL is on the mound. What variable is that in the equation?
It’s baseball, not math.
Yeah Lowe got the win, but did he really earn it? As part of the variables in this, he had to have a WPA of -0.05 for the game. So it’s not like he contributed anything positive towards the team in these games that he won. These are wins that he is “lucky” to have received.
by dunnytwogloves on Apr 7, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow...
Talk about missing the point completely. The “math” you so openly scorn merely describes what happened in the games. It doesn’t determine who wins. It tells you who contributed how much to each win (and lots of other interesting things). Honestly, if you’re not interested in finding out things like that, you should just stop reading baseball blogs and instead just listen to Joe Morgan saying, “If you want to win the game, you need to score some runs” on repeat for the rest of your life.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Me too...
Mike Schur is a genius. The Office hasn’t been the same since he left to run Parks & Recreation, either. Parks & Rec is pretty good and all, but still.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Got to love those Harvard Graduate Comedy writers.
This Heyward kid is different. -Duk, Big League Stew
by McCann and McWill on Apr 7, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And here I thought he actually worked for Fremulon Insurance……….
tUMD Hockey: In search of a title! But probably not this year.
ha, nice
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 8, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
-1
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
So, the Braves are capable of “scoring extra runs” when Derek Lowe is on the mound? If they can just “score some extra runs” anytime they want, shouldn’t they go 162-0 this season?
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backwards in a mirror." ~George Carlin
by FineHamAbounds on Apr 8, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
that he’s implying that there is some mystical awesomeness inherent to Derek Lowe that inspires his teammates to hit better. When he’s not on the mound, there’s no inspiration.
Clearly, JJ and KK need to work on their mojo.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 8, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Post
It never fails…I always learn something here
There seems to be a strong correlation between the DLW leaderboard and being termed an “innings eater.” It’s the only nice thing any one has ever had to say about Garland or Eaton and it’s pretty much Derek Lowe’s ceiling for the remainder of his contract.
Anyway, thanks for this. Your posts are always interesting.
right on.
since to even qualify for a win one must pitch 5 innings, an interesting element is implicated in which the DLW pitcher must surrender an undesirable number of runs while simultaneously pitching well enough to transition from one inning to the next…
therefore a specific talent is sort of indicated in the DLW leaders, or at least some kind of desirable consistency. so, i guess the DLW stat doesn’t just totally describe a negative trait.
by brndn on Apr 7, 2010 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I agree...
There are two components:
1) Being good enough to pitch a lot of innings
2) Being crappy enough to give up lots of runs
So it’s a bit of good, a bit of bad. All the great pitchers had a good number of DLWs (like Clemens’ 20)… They just didn’t accrue them at the rate that DL does.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i wonder if DL will lead in DLWs this year…..he already does…
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Apr 7, 2010 4:29 AM EDT reply actions
The opposite - KKL
What would the opposite look like? A pitcher losing even though he pitched well. The extreme would be a 0-1 complete game loss. Without any research, my gut feeling is that last year both KK and JJ were part of this unlucky category, with KK being the worst. Is there a KenshinKawakamiLoss, KKL, as well? Or perhaps it should be named after someone with a longer career in MLB. Any suggestions?
Anyone willing to do the impressive kind of research that pacgnosis did on DLW?
Roy Halladay
Gets a lot of those as well. Tons of games in Toronto where he gave up 2-3 runs and they just leave him in to finish the game and take the loss.
Damn, you really think KK had more than JJ? I would say the other way around, but they’re both probably pretty close.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's call it the JavierVazquezLoss:
Most games since 2000 with 6+IP, 2 or fewer ER, 0.05 or higher WPA:
1. Vazquez, 14 JVLs
T2. Steve Trachsel and Jamie Moyer, 13 JVLs
T4. Barry Zito, Johan Santana, Jeff Weaver, Dan Haren, Tom Glavine, Doug Davis, and…. Derek Lowe, 12 JVLs
T11. Ben Sheets, Ted Lilly, Mark Buehrle, Greg Maddux, 11 JVLs
There you go :)
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holy shit, Steve Trachsel? He hasn’t pitched in years, too.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
He pitched for the Mets for a while...
Had 6 JVLs in 2003-4 alone. Which makes a lot of sense for anyone who watched those Mets teams.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I’ll be damned…he pitched in 2008, didn’t realize that.
Either way, it’s impressive he’s got so many while not pitching at all last year and only logging ~40 IP in 2008. Of course 6 JVLs in 2003-2004 will do that, huh.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
You suck at life…
People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.
If I do suck at life (still up for debate) it’s for a lengthy list of other reasons, not my lack of Steve Trachsel knowledge.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
lol…touche
People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.
I wonder how much this has to do with going deep into games?
Since Lowe is on both leaderboards, I think it shows as a testament to how many decisions he’s factored into, and his durability. I think we can conclude from those two stats that a) He will go out and give you 6+ IP, and b) Will take the ball every 5th day. There is something to say about that. He’s no ace, but he’s no slouch either.
by soup du jour on Apr 7, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Excellent summation of the pluses and minuses of Derek Lowe.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Better than 2 realllly crappy innings,
a la Zambrano. At least Lowe conserves the bullpen.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Jamie Moyer is on both lists....
does that mean he is the most inconsistent pitcher ever?
Bob Sanders is starting to make me rethink my SBNation ID!
by SupermanWearsBobSander'sPJs on Apr 7, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Continuous inconsistency is consistency, no?
Feel free to scoop your brain off the floor.
by Weldon on Apr 7, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If I remember correctly, I read somewhere that Jamie Moyer has lost 8 1-0 complete games in his career. He went the distance 8 times, gave up 1 run each time, and still lost. That has got to hurt.
by Mr. Glavine #47 on Apr 8, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
So how many JVLs did our pitchers get last year? I can’t figure out how to look up WPA for individual games…
Figured it out.
2009 Braves starters with impressive losses (JavierVazquezLoss):
Jair Jurrens: 2
Derek Lowe: 2
Javier Vazquez: 2
Tommy Hansson: 1
Kenshin Kawakami: 1
Tim Hudson: 0
Kris Medlen: 0
Jo-Jo Reyes: 0
Wow,
that seems like a ton of JVLs. I’ll have to look up which teams had the most/least. I bet we’re near the top. That’s what you get when you have a terrible offense for over 1/2 the year.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Well from looking at those stats for winning % vs number of earned runs allowed it is obvious we cannot allot 4 runs to be scored. If we do however I say we immediately give up a homer ball on the next pitch to give us a much better chance of winning.
And if we can some how get the other team to agree that if we let them have 7 they will not score any more then that would really be the way to go.
Well that...
and football! (this year)
by McGriff the Crime Dog on Apr 7, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Is 4ER in 6IP a quality start, or is it 3ER in 6IP?
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
Fantastic
That was a great early morning read… had me laughing the whole time. The best part about it is you proved the my gut instinct was correct… maybe we can come up with a stat for that — the Gondeee Gut Instinct (GGI).
hahaha
You’d lead the league every year!
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm really digging the quality of posts on this site lately.
Not to demean the previous posts, which were good; but the posts in the past month or so have taken it to a new level. Well done to all of our writers.
Also, its interesting to see how similar those pitchers are.
In fact, I would group a lot of those pitchers on the DLW index together (with some wiggle room). Average to above average pitchers who don’t get a lot of strikeouts and rely on guile rather than power to get outs.
I completely agree, but it would be nice to see those conversations between Kyle Davies, Frenchy and Heap again.
Well, maybe not exactly the same, but you know what I mean…
Evil Davies
Loved this stuff. Chipper and AJ being the older, cool kids and Frenchy being the overly excited youngster.
by Chesterhighwater on Apr 7, 2010 1:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wonder if the Frank Wren look-a-like will be back behind home plate today..
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Apr 7, 2010 9:01 AM EDT reply actions
I have to ask...
That wasn’t Frank Wren?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
If we're talking about the same guy
I saw him close up an I’m almost positive it wasn’t
"Trying to sneak a pitch past Hank Aaron is like trying to sneak a sunrise past a rooster."
-Joe Adcock
Excellent post
Clearly, I should have written along these lines rather than pointing out how Lowe’s struggles that began last August continued with his start Monday. I was accused of hating, but that’s okay. Your post is the work of genius.
"DLW"
This is hilarious. Time to add this to “BSL” and “BSW”.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
This is great, great stuff. Rec'd.
As I was scrolling down I knew full well that Garland would be on the list. That’s some dreadful company that Lowe’s in, yuck.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
There are some good names on that list...
Pettitte, Moyer. Zito and Morris had some great years. And Wakefield has had an excellent career.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
True but Garland, Padilla, and Eaton drag the whole lot of them into an abyss of suckiness.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Granted. Very, very granted.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
checked the game log
we faced him twice. Once we got 4 runs in 5 innings, the other time he shut us out over 8 innings. That’s a 2.77 ERA against us. I wouldn’t say we eactly lit him up.
+1
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 7, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I just hope
that he doesn’t get a JVL (see above)
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
An excellent stat category that was really well described and put together for the reader. I really hope derek lowe keeps winning, and even if they are dlw’s i wouldnt mind.
Will Tommy Hanson be facing Tim Lincecum on the 10? if so possible matchup of the year? just saying….
I cant stop war chanting....
by David G. Little on Apr 7, 2010 11:58 AM EDT reply actions
The Probables for the 10th...
Are Lowe and Lincecum. Tommy pitches on Thursday against Randy Wells.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the info
I cant stop war chanting....
by David G. Little on Apr 7, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of probables...
Anyone else wish we would flip-flop Kawakami and Lowe on Sat & Sun? That was KK would get to slay the dragon that is Lincecum and Lowe would be able to pick up a DLW against Barry Zito.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Zito looked great yesterday
I know it was against the Astros, but still…
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."
by Scott Coleman on Apr 7, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Without Berkman,
that lineup is pathetic. I would take exactly 0 information from any games against them. I’m pretty sure that there are some position players that could shut them out for 5 or 6 innings.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 7, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Point
I was actually contemplating picking him up in fantasy baseball. I think I’ll wait it out now.
This Heyward kid is different. -Duk, Big League Stew
by McCann and McWill on Apr 7, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
After lowes first performance i dont want him going against Lincecum. Tiny tims lightsout this season and thats not a matchup i think we would win. i wanted hanson but i guess thats not happening. For Tiny Tim i support KK
I cant stop war chanting....
by David G. Little on Apr 7, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Tiny tims lightsout this season
do u really want your argument to stand on a premise based on one game?
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
The man has two Cy Youngs. They don’t give those things away.
Let's Go Braves!
by romone_braves91 on Apr 7, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
That and two cy youngs at the age of 25 yeah i do want that to stand
I cant stop war chanting....
by David G. Little on Apr 7, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
a jurrjens stat?
I wonder if theres some stat that can be made from all the ND and L jurrjens gets from the lack of run support….the exact opposite of a derek lowe win. Jurrjens would have had 20 wins if not realllllly close to it if he got more run support
So tonight's (4/16) game against the Rockies would not qualify, correct?
4 runs total, but only 3 were earned….
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