Community Projections: Braves Starting Pitchers
by gondeee on Apr 3, 2010 4:44 PM EDT
in Community Projections
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PrintWe've already projected what we think the Braves infielders and outfielders will do this season, now we turn our attention to the pitching staff, beginning with the starting pitchers. For the pitchers we'll project W-L, ERA, and Strikeouts.
Copy and paste the below players into a comment and guess their 2010 W-L, ERA, and Strikeouts.
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hanson
Tim Hudson
Kenshin Kawakami
My guesses are after the jump.
Derek Lowe, 16-11, 3.63, 127
Jair Jurrjens, 17-9, 3.23, 148
Tommy Hanson, 22-7, 2.42, 215... Cy Young
Tim Hudson, 18-10, 3.48, 109
Kenshin Kawakami, 12-11, 3.76, 125
I'm going to go ahead and be pretty optimistic about this year's staff, giving no one an ERA over 4.00, but no one except Hanson gets a real flashy record either. Hudson and Jurrjens don't get as many bad-luck losses this year, thanks to the offense. Kawakami squeaks out a winning record, and Lowe bounces back nicely. Best staff in baseball. </rose colored glasses>
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I don't know how to make an infinity sign for Hanson...
Derek Lowe 15-9, 4.12 ERA, 104 K
Jair Jurrjens 19-8, 2.78 ERA, 176 K
Tommy Hanson 17-7, 2.88 ERA, 188 K
Tim Hudson 13-10, 4.09 ERA, 112 K
Kenshin Kawakami 11-7, 3.88 ERA, 103 K
Unless Atlanta schedules KK’s starts around the other teams’ aces, then I’m fairly confident with my projections. The entire baseball world is waiting for JJ to have a mediocre season, but it’s not happening. JJ for Cy!!
Derek Lowe- 14-12 4.08 126 Ks
Jair Jurrjens- 17- 8 3.47 170Ks
Tommy Hanson- 19-4 2.45 224Ks
Tim Hudson- 18-7 2.92 165Ks
Kenshin Kawakami- 14-13 3.97 115ks
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
thats alot of strikeouts for hanson…. but i like it
by David G. Little on Apr 3, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Derek Lowe 15-5 3.22 147
Jair Jurrjens 18-10 3.29 157
Tommy Hanson 17-7 3.59 188
Tim Hudson 12-8 3.49 158
Kenshin Kawakami 14-11 4.22 115
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Apr 3, 2010 6:33 PM EDT reply actions
A Random Guess
Derek Lowe 12-16 4.25 137 (Lowe vs. Halladay, Santana, and Josh Johnson = Losses)
Jair Jurrjens 15-10 3.13 160 (Career ave. year)
Tommy Hanson 16-8 3.27 190 (Teams know him now if develops changeup more W’s and Ks)
Tim Hudson 19-5 2.87 175 (The Sleeper on the staff)
K Kawakami 15-8 3.33 158 (Should be more comfortable yet still lack support)
The Staff will be the best in the league. Just hope the bullpen arms hold up for the Oct run.
Jim Leyland, "Heyward destroyed the ball. He reminds me of Babe Ruth, Albert Pujols, and that Hank Aaron fellow." (Just paraphrasing not an exact quote)
low on lowe?
everyone except for gondee is thinking lowe wil struggle.
D lowe- 3.70 ERA
Jair- 3.60—- low BABIP last season right?
Tommy Hanson- 2.40 ERA
Hudson- 3.12 ERA
Kenshin- 3.65 ERA
I think Lowe has to show me an improvement before I can believe it. He is going up against the same batters as before in the NL East and they know about his stuff. I guess you could make the argument about how Tim Hudson bounced back from that bad year 2006 and was the best on the staff 2007. I am in the wait and see boat.
Let's Go Braves!
by romone_braves91 on Apr 3, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i went 3.22 on lowe…..mostly because while writing that comment i had extreme faith in lowe…..it somehow has dwindled in the last 2 hrs. or so…hmm….
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Apr 3, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Tommy Hanson 18-8 2.97 205
Tim Hudson 17-8 3.31 149
Jair Jurrjens 16-8 3.42 165
Derek Lowe 15-10 4.05 121
Kenshin Kawakami 14-11 3.99 116
Kris Medlen 6-4 3.09 101 (8 spot starts)
I was only 12 when Kent Hrbek stole the World Series.
Wow..
That’s 86 wins just from the starters. If that happens, we win what, 105 games? I hope so!
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 3, 2010 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Derek Lowe – 4.08, 16-15, 140k
Jair Jurrjens – 3.12, 17-10, 130k
Tommy Hanson – 3.22, 17-9, 180k
Tim Hudson – 3.55, 16-11, 150k
Kenshin Kawakami – 4.01, 12-8, 100k
By my projections, we’ll have a non-stop debate as to who should be the opening day starter in 2011 – JJ or Tommy.
by hollerin' brave on Apr 3, 2010 8:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
innings...
How many innings do people see Hanson pitching this year? How many should he pitch? Some of the 19 or 20 win projections must he assuming 240 innings…which would be a lot….too many in my opinion.
by calbers on Apr 3, 2010 9:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'd say right at 200...
But he could win 20 with 200 innings, easy, if the offense supports him and the bullpen doesn’t blow too many of his wins.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 3, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
He clocked in 127 ips in the Majors and around 180ish for the year (AAA and the bigs). I would assume he gets 33 starts and clocks in around 210ish innings. I think the pitchers progression is 30 plus innings per year. Just like JJ.
Let's Go Braves!
by romone_braves91 on Apr 3, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Trying to be realistic, but hoping for better from Lowe and Kawakami
Derek Lowe – 14-10, 3.95, 130
Jair Jurrjens – 15-9, 3.14, 152
Tommy Hanson – 14-7, 3.2 , 185
Tim Hudson – 12-7, 3.58, 115
Kenshin Kawakami – 10-10, 4.05, 112
Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.
How many ppl on this site thinks Bobby will let Hanson go the full 9 or pull the same stunt he did back in Houston last year? That game killed me. I was upset for hours.
Let's Go Braves!
iirc,
the problem in that game wasn’t so much that he pulled Tommy (though that was bad), it was that he put in Soriano, who had sucked recently and was pitching for the 4th straight day. If he had put in somebody who was better-rested, we still win that game and it’s not a big deal.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 3, 2010 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
But to answer your question,
I think Bobby lets Hanson get at least 1 CG this year.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Apr 3, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Derek Lowe: 16-10, 4.00, 120
Jair Jurrjens: 15-9, 3.30, 145
Tommy Hanson: 18-10, 2.95, 180
Tim Hudson: 15-8, 3.45, 130
Kenshin Kawakami: 12-10, 3.80, 105
I came this close to picking 5 15-game winners, like we had that one year in the late 90s. I’m just not sure Kenshin will get the innings (and run support) to get to 15. Overall, though, better run support means better records than last year.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
ERA and K's from the meta projections
Considering wins and losses tell you absolutely nothing useful about how well a pitcher performed, I used a random number generator (lower bound 5, upper bound 22) to project the wins and losses.
Derek Lowe 21-12 – 4.06 – 126
Jair Jurrjens 6-9 – 3.48 – 156
Tommy Hanson 8-6 – 3.15 – 202
Tim Hudson 8-9 – 3.73 – 115
Kenshin Kawakami 11-16 – 4.23 – 117
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
They don’t put on base percent on the scoreboard, the random number generator for predicting W-L records seems an equal to that to me. W-L depends on more than the pitchers ability, run support and errors being big parts. Who’s the last Cy Young winner with a losing record?
Good catch
I didn’t think about relievers winning the Cy.
These projections will be useful
If someone can calculte the averages of all these numbers.
Maybe it’ll be the most accurate projection.
The collective wisdom of the crowds is often more useful than even the most sophisticated mathematical algorithm.
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
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