Throwdown: Braves' Escobar vs Rockies' Tulowitzki

by Jacob Peterson on Apr 17, 2010 12:56 PM EDT

As part of a game thread discussion last night, I boldly proclaimed that I would prefer Yunel Escobar to Troy Tulowitzki, however slightly. This proclamation was met with a mixture of befuddlement and old-style double-takes, so I of course felt the need to defend my position in more detail. What follows is a brief comparison of the two players, using only their road stats (since it is impossible to compare the home stats of a Rockie with another player).

(I would like to apologize in advance to any Rockies fans whose heads a-splode at the mere intimation that Escobar could even be compared to their beloved Tulo. Please clean up your head bits and try to soldier through. You'll get a chance to speak your decimated mind in the poll.)

First, let me just say that yes, I do believe that Tulo was better last year. However, the difference was not nearly as great as you might think, and if you look at their whole careers, the picture changes completely. Here are their road numbers in a variety of rate stats over the last 3 seasons (2007-2009):

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Tulowitzki	.266	.338	.440	.778	9.5%	21.2%	.336	96.4
Escobar	.288	.366	.422	.788	9.8%	11.1%	.347	112.7

Tulo has a clear edge in power, but his average and on-base are much lower than Escobar's. Their walk rates are identical, but Escobar strikes out almost half as often. Escobar has the edge in road wOBA and road wRC+, too.

None of this considers that there is likely an "anti-Coors" effect that causes Colorado players to underperform on the road due to the adjustment of not playing at altitude. Feel free to give Tulowitzki some credit in that regard; I don't know how much credit, but it shouldn't be a large amount.

Defensively, both Plus/Minus and UZR loved Tulowitzki in 2007 (+30 and +15 runs, respectively), but they've rated him as much closer to average the past two years (+2 and 0 in 2008, +9 and -1 in 2009). Escobar has consistently been rated as an exactly average fielder by UZR (career UZR: 0). Plus/Minus has loved Esco the past 2 years, though, rating him as +12 and +13 runs. Overall, you could go either way on defense, depending on which numbers you believe.

Alright, you've seen the stats. Now take the poll. All I ask is that the Braves fans not just vote for Esco because he's a Brave. Thanks. Now let the throwdown begin!

Poll

In a neutral park, and this year only, which player would you take: Yunel Escobar or Troy Tulowitzki?

Tulowitzki by a mile

99 votes

Tulowitzki, but it's closer than I thought

243 votes

Escobar by a nose

316 votes

Escobar by a mile (the choice for Braves homers)

132 votes

790 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Even as a Braves fan, I still take Tulo

I agree that it is closer than many folks would think, especially Colorado fans. However, I have read that on average all Rockies players take 2-5 games per road trip to come around to hitting like themselves outside of Colorado. It was the same with Helton, and most notably Holiday. It was around the Holiday trade that this came up, as I recall. I don’t remember where I was reading this.

So, in other words, if you put them in a neutral park, Tulowitzki would be a better hitter than his neutral/away stats look right now. Tulo is also 2 years younger. Would it be a huge disparity between the two if park factors were equal? No, probably not. But I still think Tulo would be slightly better.

by Andy Braves Fan on Apr 17, 2010 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

I wish we could've voted "Tulo by a nose"

Because that’s how I feel. If I were the Braves, I’d take Tulo over Esco by just a little, little bit. It’s close though. Real close.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 1:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

you cant ignore home stats completely and go with road stats only for a Colorado player for several reasons

1- most players hit better at home anyway in a neutral home park
2 – the reverse coors effect, which makes hitters tend to struggle at the beginning of road trips
3 – Tulo’s road games are more pitcher park heavy.
4 – that’s what park adjustments are for. And park adjustments show Tulo to be several strides ahead of Yunel, especially when throwing out his injury plagued lost season in 2008.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 2:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

i forgot one

If an average player is eight percent better than normal at Coors but one player is 16% better at Coors, he is undeniably above the average benefit, yet this is omitted completely when looking only at away stats

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Can't be that cut and dry with Coors stats

Tulo’s strength may lie in hitting the watered down breaking pitches that the altitude allows for, which would make him a valuable asset to the Rockies, but not as much in a neutral park. That’s pure conjecture as I’m way too lazy to verify any of that, but I think the logic is plausible.

by Cracker! on Apr 17, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

that would be plausible

But tulo’s strength is hitting fastballs

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 3:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

When you can sit fastball, knowing the breaking pitches are not going to be as sharp, then it’s just plain easier to hit. I would think most players strength would be hitting fastballs when compared to sharp breaking pitches. I think Colorado is such an outlier that it is hard to make a convincing argument. But, there is no doubt he is a fantastic player, who I’d love to have in my lineup anyday.

by Cracker! on Apr 17, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Coors has the same multi-year BR park factor as Chase Field

You don’t even have to leave to division to see Coors Field isn’t as much as an outlier anymore

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, in all honesty

Yes, Chase and Coors are close, but Coors is #1 and Chase is #2 for 2009:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2009

Maybe not as much as an “outlier” as pre-humidor, but hyperbole aside, it’s still the easiest park to hit at in the majors. Doesn’t necessarily negate the plausibility of the argument that Coors plays to the strengths of Tulo more so than most.

by Cracker! on Apr 17, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't like ESPN's park factors

They are just a straight comparison of stats at home vs away, and that doesn’t take into account the “reverse Coors effect” or team talent. Sure, it’s one of the top, but it isn’t as much of an outlier as people like to think. I don’t see anyone looking strictly at Mark Reynolds’ road stats to see what his “true talent level” is.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Reynolds

I think Reynolds would be an interesting player to study, I’d be willing to bet he hits more of the “no doubter hrs” via hit tracker than many others. You know more about the science of Coors field than I, by far, so I’ll defer to you and concede that this argument is beyond my desire to research and debate any further.

by Cracker! on Apr 17, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

We've been over my opinions on this in the game thread

So I won’t rehash too much. Suffice to say I don’t trust park factor stats when applied to individual players. I’d love to have neutral park stats for both, but that just doesn’t exist. I think it’s easier to deal with only road stats than to try to extricate any meaningful information from Coors Field stats.

At any rate, the point is not so much to say that Esco is better (I can see the argument either way) as to just bring up the discussion and kind of point out some disparities in the perceptions of both players. If you’d take Tulo, hey, more power to you. There’s no way to really know who’s right at this point.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Apr 17, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm one of escobars biggest fan

but Tulo is the best hitting SS after hanley and its a debate with him and derek jeter
yunel right now is a top 5 SS tho
Hanley
Tulo
Jeter
Yunel
J-Roll(would go above him if he ever regains his mvp form)
in consideration (Jose Reyes (Don’t know what you are going to get with him anymore), Jason Bartlett (isn’t a one year wonder)

by JasonHeywardisGod on Apr 17, 2010 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

We’re definetly at a new age where the middle infielders have to produce at a .300/ 20 HR/ 80 rbi clip to be considered elite. 2b is coming on like that too. The next couple years should have some more emergence with zobrist, andruws and bartlett.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Andrews would be lucky to hit 10 a year. He won’t even come close to .300/20/80

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but he could have 15 and easily 100 runs, 40 sbs. The point I guess I was making is that they are becoming much more integral to the lineup as opposed to sticking them in the 8 or 2 hole and simply needed to get on.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

It took me like 5 minutes to figure out that you guys were talking about

Elvis Andrus. Unless I’m completely wrong here. First Andruws, and then Andrews. Ugh.

by Bronn on Apr 17, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

my bad. Im so used to AndruW that I always leave the w in there.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

He could definately do the runs and SBs, but considering he hit 3, 3, 5 and 4 HRs in each of his minor league seasons, I’d be stunned if he ever hit double digits in HRs…even if he is playing in Arlington.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought he had 8 last year

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

he had 6 in 145 games. So I guess he could hit double digits in HRs, but I still think it’d be unlikely.

He’ll still be a solid SS though, which was the whole part of your original statement.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Either way

More production is now expected out of the middle infield guys. You can obviously throw Pedroia in there as well.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Tulo a lot

and that ordering is pretty close to mine. I’d probably go:

Hanley
Jeter
Yunel / Tulo (they’re really very close in my mind)
Reyes
Rollins

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Apr 17, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yunel

"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Apr 17, 2010 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

It's very problematic to just completely ignore home stats

Almost every batter in the league posts better numbers at home. Look at Matt Holliday’s home/away splits last season, for example. People were citing his home/away splits as a reason he wouldn’t survive away from Coors, and then he posted almost identical splits in 2009, despite getting out to a very rough start.

Troy’s younger, he’s a little bit better defensively, and he hits for more power. I thought Yunel might flash that 25 HR power we keep hearing about since he’s entering his age 27 season this year, but we still have to wait and see. He hasn’t gone over the fence yet. He might still hit 20+, but I’ll take the guy who can definitely hit 30 over a guy who might hit 20+.

The only reason I might consider Yunel is that he’s been more consistent (stupid Joe Morgan). Troy was awesome in 2007, struggled mightily in 2008, and was awesome again last year. Yunel is what he is, and has been essentially just as good over the past two seasons as he was in 2007. But it’s Troy for many reasons.

by Bronn on Apr 17, 2010 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Matt Holliday

I could have saved my breath and just said that name

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 2:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Now do the comparison between Tommy Hanson and Ubaldo Jimenez....

"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."

by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Apr 17, 2010 2:53 PM EDT reply actions

That debate just ended.

The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.

by free7694 on Apr 17, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

It'll end

whenever Cox lets a pitcher go for more than 100 pitches. Nice try though

by schlagdawg on Apr 17, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

How did that debate end?

"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."

by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Apr 17, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahahahaha

One start determines a better pitcher? In that case, Jonathan Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Mark Buherle and Ubaldo Jimenez are the 4 best pitchers…cause you know…they had one better start than everybody else.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Have to take Tulo

You use away wRC+, which doesn’t make sense since wRC+ controls for park factors. Comparing wRC+ from last year, Tulo (135) was definitely better than Yunel (120).

Using career stats doesn’t really seem like a proper form of comparison either, as Tulo’s 2008 was injury plagued and probably a fluke.

Others have already talk about the problems with using home/road splits.

Finally, his walk up song has been “Party in the USA”

The Jordan Schafer Fan Club.

by acie4mvp on Apr 17, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think

that the park adjustments for Coors field are anywhere near adequate. Perhaps they are for some players, but not for others. And I think Tulo is definitely one of those others.

The reason I included wRC+ at all is because Tulo has a huge home / road split in that, which you would think would not be the case if it was adequately adjusted to his situation.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Apr 17, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps they are for some players, but not for others. And I think Tulo is definitely one of those others.

Can you elaborate on this? It seems a bit arbitrary

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

movement

Tulo plays half his games at Coors, pitchers seem to struggle getting good movement on their braking balls at altitude. Going on the road is more of an adjustment for a Rockie than just “the ball flies farther”, it also moves a lot more.

by bighop on Apr 17, 2010 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

What is this drivel?

Do you expect to be a sports write with your lame jokes? Ha, I used to read this blog for the dryness and the bare bones approach. Why don’t you and royhobbs take a coloring book and go sit in the corner.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

What is this drivel?

Do you expect to be a sports read with your lame insults? Ha, I read this blog for both the in-depth analysis as well as the good humor that makes it feel like a community. Why don’t you and your sour milk take a pacifier and go back to bed.

by J-Freak on Apr 17, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

read yesterday's series preview but thanks for playing

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah.

Missed that yesterday. FAIL. I apologize to you sir, though my sentiment still stands to that guy and anyone else that thinks like him.

by J-Freak on Apr 17, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

No biggy. my response was pretty dick.

It was quite the exchange yesterday. This blog is great stuff.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Talking Chop sucks. I’m gonna end my membership and and go post on a real blog…like the AJC’s.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

I want my money back

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Both Blogs are great

I mean – i enjoy both and have posted on AJC & DOB’s blog for years…just started on this one and i like them both. Humor is second to none on both and it appreciated. It makes my day sometimes. I’ve actually read this blog more than post for the last little while – including the off-season. Anyway keep up the good work everyone! Go Braves….tonight’s gunna be a tough one and tomorrow for that matter!

by Nova Scotia Steve on Apr 17, 2010 4:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I agree

Tough ones for the next two especially against Urabaldo but hopefully the Ted will be supportive. I have no problem with the other blogs and DOB is one of the best. I really like the SB blogs because it is an active community where you can follow all your favorite teams from a central location.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Apr 17, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahahahah

Did anyone just see FUGA try to run a ball
down in LF in the LA/SF game? He’s even slower than last year.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 5:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Oh, one other thing:

I forgot to mention their age disparity. Tulo is 25, Yunel 27. That may swing some people’s votes one way or the other. Yunel is at a more typical “peak” age, but then Tulo might have more room to grow.

At any rate, I look forward to seeing how these two excellent shortstops perform for the rest of the season and beyond.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Apr 17, 2010 6:00 PM EDT reply actions

Has anyone even seen a lineup yet?

WTF? It’s usually up hours before the game.

"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when."

by Scott Coleman on Apr 17, 2010 6:10 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

It’s just too bad Esco’s GIDP% is like, 652%.

As a Braves fan, I’d take Tulo in a heartbeat.

Avalanche fan stuck in Penguin territory.

by Richard R on Apr 17, 2010 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

All these tulo fans keep talking about how unfair this analysis is for taking away tulo’s home stats, but it also takes away yunel’s home stats. As for the adjustment factor for hitting in a different park, every baseball player has to do it at least once a week. It’s not like tulowitski is the only player that travels the country and everyone else just plays home games. Everyone has that adjustment factor. As far as I’m concerned, the hitting analysis is dead on, although an injury plagued year does tend to put a damper on stats. I chose tulo over yunel because of the defense. UZR and range factor are never very telling in small doses, but scouting reports have praised tulo’s defense since he was a minor leaguer.

by telemakhos on Apr 17, 2010 7:48 PM EDT reply actions

It isn’t the travel that makes it difficult for Rockies to hit on the road. It’s seeing breaking pitches breaking in a far different manner than they are used to. Over decades of data, Rockies have the worst OPS of any road game in the first day of a road trip. There is something to this.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 17, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

The answer to this lies at Fangraphs

With wRC+. This stats is to wOBA what OPS+ is to OPS. wRC+ is park adjusted and league adjusted. Escobar’s career wRC+ is 115 and Tulo’s is 108, showing that Escobar has been a better offensive player in his career.

by Bravesbubbabrown on Apr 18, 2010 10:26 PM EDT reply actions