Bat Heyward leadoff?
by jerryclore on Mar 4, 2010 1:19 AM EST
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PrintNow I'm not necessarily arguing for this, and I understand it's not a forgone conclusion that Heyward makes the team out of spring training (e.g., arb clock issues), but I thought this would be an interesting topic for discussion.
The Braves lack a prototypical leadoff hitter, with Mclouth the likely guy to get the job by default because his OBP is decent (about .354 last year) and he's not particularly slow. Yunel Escobar makes more sense at that spot because his OBP is considerably higher (.377), but he seemed to struggle when batting leadoff.
Now I'm surely getting ahead of myself here, but it would seem that Heyward would be an interesting leadoff hitter this season - with the usual stipulation that he indeed makes the team. I do consider Heyward to be a 3 or 4 hole hitter once he achieves his full power potential, but in his first year, leadoff may make a lot of sense. Heyward is known for his patience, taking tons of walks in both high school and the minors. At this point in his career, he is also remarkably quick for his size, with great base stealing IQ. At the least, we can agree that he would not clog up the basepaths.
Of course, there are several drawbacks to this idea. One is that it is even more pressure to heap on a player who would have made the majors at a nearly unprecedented age. Another, is that Mclouth may see this as a slap in the face, to have his place in the order taken by a rookie. Further, this may push a righty into the 2nd spot in the order, which is not ideal. In general, you want the 2nd hitter to be a lefty because he blocks the pitcher's throw to first, as we all know.
Let the discussions begin!
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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"In general, you want the 2nd hitter to be a lefty because he blocks the pitcher's throw to first, as we all know."
Explain that to me? I can see how he blocks the catcher’s throw, but the pitcher’s?
A few thoughts...
I don’t think batting Heyward first is a bad idea, I just don’t think it’s the right thing to do. Heyward is a special player, yeah, but we should remember that he’s a rookie. He should be put in a spot in the order where there is less pressure, but where he can still be effective – I think the 7-spot is perfect for him, right behind Escobar. Maybe midseason if Nate is hurting the team leading off and Heyward is hitting well, then I think it could be worth a try.
Escobar actually isn’t a bad idea for a leadoff man. Over his career, he’s been very successful batting 1st, and he wouldn’t ground into so many freaking double plays, but still, I see him best suited as a number 6 hitter where he’ll have a lot of RBI opportunities since he’s sustained good numbers with RISP for his career.
And I think what you mean is you prefer a lefty hitting second so the catcher can’t catch the runner on 1st sleeping as easily, but just know from now on that really doesn’t matter. Pickoffs like that are extremely rare; it’s definitely not worth putting a lefty in the two hole for that purpose alone. Plus, Prado will be batting 2nd regardless, and he’s right handed.
The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."
by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 4, 2010 1:50 AM EST reply actions
2nd...or 7th..
I would want him batting 2nd…or 7th…
2nd…because he is likely to get fastballs with Nate on..and chipper behind….(LaRussa has done this a lot over the years …giving his rising prospects protection in the #2 hole). He also runs well enough where he can score from 1st on a double by Chipper.
7th…because he will not have a lot of pressure and still have someone behind him to offer some protection.
uh, no...
Points for creativity, but let’s not put too much pressure on the kid just yet. Long-term, he’s the obvious heir apparent to Chipper’s #3 spot, but for right now, he’ll probably hit in the 6-8 range. I’d say put him in the #2 slot, but we already have lots of #2-type hitters.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Yeah, he’s eventually going to be in the 3 hole hopefully for years to come, maybe even as soon as next season. But his power and RBI potential is too great for him to be batting first. He has a much better shot at batting fourth if anything.
Really
I only needed to read the title, and the answer is no. Someday in the future, maybe, though I personally think he probably should bat towards the middle of the order, probably 3rd eventually. But to stick a 20 year old rookie, even one with Heyward’s prodigious skill, in the leadoff spot. That’s just not going to happen. Let him prove that he can stick in the bigs this season first. You are getting way too ahead of yourself. Back off that kool-aid a bit.
I already talked to Bobby, and he’s gonna bat 1st, cleanup and 7th, and play the whole outfield by himself.
You want your power hitters hitting in the middle of the order not leading off. That applies to McLouth as well. I’d bat Diaz leadoff with Heyward somewhere in the 5-8 spot. Diaz gets on base more than McLouth and is a decent situational base stealer. The lineup could be something like
Diaz
Prado
Chipper
McCann
Glaus
Heyward
McLouth
Escobar
Diaz gets on base more than McLouth
in a platoon role, in the back of a lineup, with a .360 BABIP.
In other words, as I have said over and over again, back off the Diaz for leadoff Kool-Aid, and lets see how he does as a full-time starter first.
by Andy Braves Fan on Mar 4, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
In an admittedly small sample of 41 AB leading off last year, Diaz hit
.439/.531/.585/1.116
which was his best numbers for any position. Now yeah he isn’t going to play everyday. Versus RHP then probably McLouth would bat leadoff with Cabrera playing LF and hitting 8th.
as you correctly pointed out
it was only 41 AB’s. Color me unconvinced until I see him put up such numbers over a full season without the platoon.
by Andy Braves Fan on Mar 4, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I'm unimpressed by those who cite the platoon
2 out of every 3 plate appearances he had last year came against right handed pitching. That’s just a tad below below, say, Chipper Jones, who saw righties 70% of the time.
Diaz was basically an every-day player from mid-May to the end of the year, getting the approximate rest every other starter did, while his plate appearances were the same ratio as the rest of the team. You can argue that it was a career year, but please do not do him the disservice of downplaying his numbers as the result of platoon splits or irregular playing time. There wasn’t nothing illegitimate about his play last year.
I never said that his play was illegitimate
First off, about 1/3 ABs was against righties. That’s more than a tad below Chipper:
371 PA, 136 vs. righties.
Ok, so now that the math is straight, Diaz did get a lot of playing time last season, and well deserved. Therefore, I absolutely would like to see how he does in a full time role. However, There are many many reasons to not immediately throw him in the leadoff role. His platoon time is absolutely relevant, and you may agree now with the correct stats.
by Andy Braves Fan on Mar 5, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
I think you got that flipped Andy...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=diazma02&year=2009&t=b#plato
By that count, he had about twice the number of at bats vs. righty than lefty.
eh i say
Prado
Heyward
Chip
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
McLouth
Diaz
Pitcher
BTW Prado’s line leading off an inning
.297/.363/.503/.866
by drumzalicious on Mar 5, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
Jordan Schafer.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 4, 2010 10:39 AM EST reply actions
i like it……sold…
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 5, 2010 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
Can we please not have another 300 comment thread about how “so-and-so has the highest OBP, so he should bat leadoff”? There are tons of other factors that go into choosing a hitter for the 1 spot. McLouth is our leadoff hitter, and a huge reason for that is the havoc he causes when he gets on base. The pitchers all know they have to hold him on because catchers don’t throw him out. That often leads to the pitcher grooving a fastball down the middle that that gets crushed. Its cause and effect, and as good as Heyward is, he isn’t going to have that effect on pitchers when he gets on base.
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
i'm not sure about that
mclouth doesn’t really steal a lot of bases
He’s got 76 steals in 87 career attempts. I’ll do the math for you, that’s 87%. Last year was a down year for him on the base paths due to the hamstring. Before last season he was 57 out of 62 for a 92% success rate. And before last season he had only been thrown out by a catcher once in his career, the other times he was caught by pick-off moves by the pitcher. Major League pitchers know these things, and with Nate back healthy again they be jumping every time he twitches over at first this year.
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
There is no skill more important for a lead-off man
Than making as few outs as possible. OBP should be primary, and speed considered as a difference maker in a virtual tie.
Here you go:
Prado / Diaz
Heyward
Chipper
Glaus
B-Mac
Escobar
Diaz / Prado
McLouth
Both Prado and Diaz get on base alot, a man on first opens up a bigger hole on the left side for Heyward to hit through on his low, screaming line drives. Chipper protects Heyward. Glaus protects Chipper, B-Mac the same. Esobar will get to hit alot with men on base, and Diaz or Prodo do the same.
Batting lead off is only important for the first at bat of the game. If McLouth getting on base is the reason people want him to bat lead off, then let him bat where there is always a pitcher behind him to sacrifice him over. If McLouth is on second, they will be less likely to walk Prado / Diaz because Heyward and the rest are right behind. Can you imagine what kind of quality pitches Prado / Diaz would be seeing?
Just a thought. And with no mention of OBP anywhere.
by I Saw Buzz Beaned on Mar 4, 2010 11:19 AM EST reply actions
THIS.
I was only 12 when Kent Hrbek stole the World Series.
by Cooper'sTown on Mar 4, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Well since we're on the subject:
McLouth/Diaz
Prado
Chipper
Glaus
Heap
Jay-Hey
Esco
McLouth/Diaz
McLouth just doesn’t do well enough against lefties to earn a lead off role everyday, so the Diaz platoon there works very well. Prado walks enough and gets enough doubles to be a very good #2 guy. Chipper hits third, the end. Glaus was signed to be our clean-up guy so that’s where he’ll be. B-Mac has the power to hit fifth and is comfortable in that role. Heyward’s power will be better utilized 6th rather than 1st or 2nd. Plus you want him hitting behind Mac rather than Esco hitting behind Mac, because Mac is slow on the basepaths. Thus the hitter with greater power potential has the better possibility of driving Mac home. Esco is perfect behind Heyward because Heyward will be on base alot and Esco comes through in RBI situations and Heyward can run the bases better than Heap. Finally, you’ve got McLouth/Diaz in the 8 spot hitting against their like handed pitcher.
That my friends is our best lineup.
I like this but...
I would still like to see Heyward in the 2-hole. He would be well protected and it would encourage him to hit the line drives that he needs to hit right now. The power is certainly going to come and he will definitely be a 3 or 4 spot in the batting order in the years to come. But making good contact is easier when the pitchers you are facing are forced to give you decent pitches to hit.
by I Saw Buzz Beaned on Mar 4, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
This is the exact lineup I’m hoping for, except I’d prefer Heyward batting 7th and Escobar batting 6th.
The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."
by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 4, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
McCann is going to be on 2nd base quite a bit. Why have a singles hitter hit behind him when Heap can’t score from 2nd??? Heyward’s a better option at 6 IMO.
Heap will be able to score fine on singles if he’s on 2nd, it’s not like you need a double every time to bring him home. Plus, the amount of extra base hits between Heyward and Escobar will likely be so small it won’t make a big difference.
But the main reason I like Jay-hey 7th is because the balance it gives between the right handed hitters and left handed hitters in the lineup. Plus, it’s still Heyward’s rookie year, I’d rather go with Escobar who has been consistently great in RBI situations over the last few years.
The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."
by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 4, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
I didn’t take into account the lefty/righty aspect. In that regard yeah, Esco is the better option 6th. But honestly, I think Mac scores on singles from 2nd only 50 percent of the time AT MOST.
i love it
this is the answer to the riddle of lineup… everyone should be commenting on this..all that other talk about who should be leading off is hogwash…
mclouth bats .230 against lefties, it’s just ridiculous to use him as a leadoff hitter against lhp…
read my main post about this, i lay it all out there
im joking by the way
I realized that might not be obvious…everyone has a right to their opinion and a blog where they can punctuate it however they want
If it gets him more opportunities I’m all for it. Everyone is going to banter on about lineup construction for the next month, when it’s really not that big of a deal. I think he’ll be one of our best hitters, so get him in the top half of the lineup.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
+1
I’m a recovering “Each spot in the line up has a specific role/responsibility” -holic. It’s much more simple to me now – the higher your position in the lineup, the more PA’s you get. Therefore, you want your best non-power hitter first (don’t waste power on zero base-runner situations, which will happen in 20+% of the first hitter’s PA’s), then go from there.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Remember, folks the batting order may be fluid.
Heyward will probably start the season batting seventh or eighth. However, he could move up to second, fifth or sixth pretty easily is he is performing well. How we set the lineup at the start of the season isn’t really that important compared to how we set it over the course of the season.
I don’t understand why Glaus must hit 4th. I like seeing McCann getting the 20 extra PA instead, plus the alternating sides gives Heyward the 6-hole, which looks to be an appropriate spot for him right away.
HS team nickname: Redmen, College team nickname: Warriors, Amateur team nickname: Chiefs, Favorite MLB team: Braves. Holy political incorrectness...
Hitting Glaus 4th gives our lineup really good balance when it comes to left handed and right handed hitters. Plus, McCann, being the great hitter that he is, is still a catcher and will receive many more days off and late-game substitutions than Glaus.
The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."
by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 4, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
either will probably work but id rather see heap protecting glaus in the lineup then glaus protecting heap….
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 5, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
This would probably be the lineup if McCann hit cleanup:
L McLouth
R Prado
S Chipper
L McCann
R Glaus
L Heyward
R Escobar
R/S Diaz/Melky
The 2 righties at the end isn’t a big deal, considering how much better Yunel hits against righties than lefties in his career. Also, I really wouldn’t want to see Yunel and his sub-.450 SLG hitting 6th. Glaus isn’t really a sure thing after last year’s injury either, but I think it’s more about Heyward/Escobar than McCann/Glaus.
HS team nickname: Redmen, College team nickname: Warriors, Amateur team nickname: Chiefs, Favorite MLB team: Braves. Holy political incorrectness...
Batting him lead off?
Yeah, thats a sexy fuckin lineup. Let him leadoff until chipper retires and he gets all of his man strength.
Heyward
McLouth
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Esco
Prado
Diaz
AHHHH. I love it.
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
re: "gets all of his man strength"
Gad – JH is already scalding baseballs. Glenn Hubbard oughta be dressed up like a hockey goalie as it is.
Most likely....
I think Heyward (if? like I am kidding myself he won’t make the roster) will see time at several places in the line-up, including lead-off.
So, depending on the starter (an if Mc1 is taking a break from his catching duties)
The lead off position will feature
Mclouth (first choice)
Prado
Yunel
Diaz
and yes, Heyward.
not to kick it off
Would it be out of question by seasons end to have this lineup.
McLouth
Prado
Chipper
Heyward
Glaus/Escobar
McCann
Escobar/Glaus
Diaz/Melky
I think if Glaus hits over .270 he easily hit 25, probably 30+ home runs this season, assuming he plays a majority of the games. But if he struggles, I like Heyward there, if he is doing well. I do think that over a full (although rookie) season, he will hit 25 homeruns, something I only see him and Glaus being able to do. While McCann can hit 4, by all-star break and after, I think Heyward will be in the lineup more than McCann due to regular days off from catching. There just havn’t been many catching cleanup hitters.
Another reason for this, if Chipper does stick around a couple more years, I think Heyward will be the 4 hitter next year. I do not know the numbers on the cleanup hitter leading off, but I would assume it happens quite a bit. Heyward, Glaus, McCann, Escobar, Diaz/Melky and pitcher. You could swap Glaus and Escobar, depending on who is hitting better.
Thats putting a lot of pressure on a 20/21 year old, depending on when you want to go with this roster. I’ve seen alot of people dropping Mac to 6th even 7th in the lineup with their expected lineups for the year. I think he is our best RBI guy, esp. now that he doesn’t have to play out of his ability and try to be our longballer. He should stay at 5, even 4 if Glaus still produces in the 5. Esco may have a better RISP avg., but Mac is far and away our best bat and can’t drop past 5.
Phuck the Phillies
Im not really going to disagree with BMacs bat, but I think that Heywards upside is much greater at the plate. Im not saying throw him into the cleanup spot to start the season by no means. But from what I have seen, eveyone has said, Heyward is a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy, McCann is not. If he is going to hit 30 HRs this year or in the future, it would be stupid not to hit him 3 or 4.
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