Predicting the Braves' 2010 Lineup: #2 Hitter
by mvhsbball on Mar 17, 2010 6:14 PM EDT
41 comments
Hello again, everybody. Two weeks ago, we looked at who should be our leadoff hitter for the upcoming season. Despite having the lowest OBP of any of the candidates, Nate McLouth was voted leadoff hitter by gathering 63% of the vote. A lot has changed since then, but hopefully Nasty Nate will break out of his slump before the season starts.
Today, lets look at who should hit 2nd in the order for us.
Here are the candidates for hitting 2nd in the lineup. There are quite a few guys who could do the job. And again, these are their respective career and 2009 stats.
Melky Cabrera - OF
2009: .274BA .336OBP .752OPS 10SB/2CS
Career: .269BA .331OBP .716OPS 44SB/14CS
Matt Diaz - LF
2009: .313BA .390OBP .878OPS 12SB/5CS
Career: .310BA .358OBP .817OPS 25SB/13BB
Yunel Escobar - SS
2009: .299BA .377OBP .812OPS 5SB/4CS
Career: .301BA .375OBP .801OPS 12SB/12CS
Jason Heyward* - RF
Chipper Jones - 3B
2009: .264BA .388OBP .818OPS 4SB/1CS
Career: .307BA .406OBP .947OPS 142SB/44CS
Martin Prado - 2B
2009: .307BA .358OBP .822OPS 1SB/3CS
Career: .307BA .360OBP .810OPS 4SB/4CS
*Obviously, The Jay Hey Kid doesn't have any stats besides his minor league and spring training stats, but I'm pretty sure you know how the kid plays and what he can do.
To be honest, any one of these guys could hit 2nd. I really like the idea of Chipper in the 2 hole, but unless Heyward has a Pujols-like rookie year, I don't see anyone else who could hit 3rd for us.
For me, I'd take Prado over Heyward in a close call. My reason is this: I'd rather rely on Heyward driving Marteeen in to score than I would rather rely on Prado driving Heyward in to score. But that's just a personal opinion of mine.
Who would you have hitting 2nd?
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Matty
If we start Matt in left a majority of the season, I would love to see him batting the two. He’s hard to double up, can hit it anywhere, and he never ceases to amaze me. But I can see where Prado would make sense. He doesn’t strike out much, and can take it opposite field. I just may be biased because I love Diaz. But either one can get the job done I believe. Don’t put Heyward in the 2 spot, put him in a run driving part in the order. I don’t like the idea of Cabrera even starting over Diaz let alone hit second. We all know how good Escobar did in the 5 instead of the 2. And Chipper belongs in that 3 spot. Even in a down year like last year, he still got on base and that gave Brian the chance to get good pitches to hit. No, I look either Matt or Martin to hit in the 2. But what do I know, I’m only a 15 year old fan.
I like the idea
of Diaz hitting 2nd vs. lefties, then having Prado lead off. That way, we’d utilize Diaz’s on base skills plus his power.
The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."
by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 17, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You may be “only a 15 year old”, but you make a good argument. I see Heyward as a run scorer instead of an RBI guy. He’ll probably be both. Matty is not a bad choice if McLouth leads off.
I voted Odarp only because I want to see Matty leading off (I know I know, pipe dream bla bla bla), but my number two choice for the 2-hole would be Matty. I said in my Preview write-up of Diaz though he might be able to force Bobby’s hand into hitting him leadoff, and with McLouth hitting almost 0-for-the spring that faint glimmer of hope is starting to grow stronger…
Prado
As well as JHey’s been getting on base, it be fun to watch him running around the bases with Chipper, Glaus and Heap behind him. But, hitting in the 2-hole is different than hitting in other spots in the lineup. I’d rather see him start the year lower down in the order wher all he has to focus on is hit.
Heyward
His speed and OB% would lead to a lot of runs with Chipper, Glaus and McCann following him. Batting 7th, Heyward might be pitched around more often, teams are already unintentionally intentionally walking him. Vs righties, they could walk Heyward to get to Diaz and the pitcher, stranding Heyward pretty often. He seems to be a good baserunner, besides being fast. He got to 3rd base from 1st yesterday on Chipper’s single in the time Chipper got to 1st (slight exagerration!) I’d hate to see him running bases behind McCann, which the #7 and #5 will do quite often. Could turn a triple into a double. Since he is a lefty, I’d have Prado or Diaz leading off in front of Heyward. They are fast enough to stay out of his way.
+1
I keep saying the same thing! I agree 100%. Lead off guys are supposed to get on base so let Prado and Diaz platoon there instead of little Mac. Heyward has a huge hole to hit through on the right side. He sees good pitches to hit because 3-4-5 are behind him. The opposition already has to know that he does not swing at junk. They HAVE to give him strikes. Heyward hits strikes…period.
Put the other half of the Prado/Diaz lead-off platoon in the 8 hole. When they get on base, the pitcher has someone to move over. Period end of story!
What manager John Russell thought when Morton hit J-Hey with a pitch, "Would you mind not shooting at the thermonuclear weapons!"
by I Saw Buzz Beaned on Mar 18, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
+71
having him hit the 2 rounds out the rest of the lineup very nicely.
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 18, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't really go wrong here...
But I’m going to go on record as saying that I think Chipper would be great in the 2 hole. I like Prado as the leadoff guy against RHPs and Diaz against LHPs, with the other hitting 7th or 8th. Escobar should hit 6th.
As for J-Hey, well, I think he’s going to out-homer Chipper this year, but get on base less often, so I’d put him in the #3 hole.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Heyward
I’m really falling in love with his idea. His swing produces a lot of line drives, and he gets on base a great deal. That’s almost perfect for your #2 hitter. And don’t mention bunting-bunting is a stupid idea for non-pitchers.
Heyward’s .370+ OBP in front of Chipper will give him plenty of opportunities to bat with men on base. Against some of the tougher lefties you can bury Heyward down in the 7th or spot if you need to, but against right handed starters, his swing will help move runners over. He’s going to work the count as well, and if I get my wish of a lead-off platoon (Diaz and McLouth) he’ll get plenty of opportunities of his own to drive in runs.
And don’t mention bunting-bunting is a stupid idea for non-pitchers.
i love this
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
i assume this is mostly sarcastic..but he has a decent shot of getting on base when he comes to the plate..he just has no power and little contact ability (based on his 09 numbers, not his career)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
It was sarcastic, but
He can still take pitches even if bunting. Of course, he shouldn’t bunt with nobody on, b/c he’s so dang slow.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Nearly every level of Heyward’s Minor League time, he scores more runs than he drives in. A couple of 7 or 8 game, small sample size stints at A+ and maybe AAA notwithstanding. Cox has alluded to the thought that he may not be able to bat Heyward late in the order, I see him at 2nd, if not in April, then real soon.
And how much of that...
the “scores more runs than he drives in” is a product of the lineup around him? Did he have guys getting on in front of him, or was he the main run scorer with guys like Freeman and Cody Johnson capable of driving him in?
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 18, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
No Clue
Just saying that with his OB% followed by Chipper, Glaus and McCann, he could score a ton of runs.
Batting 7th
Heyward kills right handed pitching, Diaz doesn’t. Heyward gets walked, then Diaz and the pitcher face the righty. Maybe the bases were loaded and Heyward walked a run in, but I see him as a run scorer at 2nd rather than an RBI guy at 7th.
Heyward scored more than he drove in because that’s what he wanted to do.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 18, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Most good hitters do score more than they drive in
Because not every run that scores is the direct result of an RBI. There are errors, passed balls, GIDPs, wild pitches, , and a few other circumstances.
Ergo, good hitters than get on base a lot end up scoring a lot of runs-more than they might drive in. More often than not, Chipper Jones has more runs scored than RBIs. With Mr. Albert Pujols, his run and RBI totals are extremely close, and he’s scored more than he’s driven in 3 of his 9 seasons.
Scoring more than you drive in doesn’t mean crap, and drawing conclusions based upon it regarding how a hitter should be used is total folly.
I agree, but I was just making an attempt at a Heywardism.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 18, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
and a good one at that…
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 18, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
And batting second...
he could alter his approach, trying to move a runner over and do little things he wouldn’t be doing at 7th where his approach would likely be see if it’s a good pitch, if not lay off and if so beat the bejesus out of it. With the players we have, Bobby can move people up and down as production and matchups require. I’m not that worried about where Heyward hits in the order.
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 18, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
As a number 2 hitter
I’d much Heyward focus on things like having good at bats, getting on base as much as possible, and making solid contact any time he swings, rather than dated concepts like “moving the runner over.”
But if he were put in the 2 hole...
would he feel pressure to play that traditional role he otherwise wouldn’t if he were hitting say 7th? That was the point, not how we’d like Heyward to approach at bats.
Well
Since I’m not the one actually setting the line-up, it seems to speculate that if I were able to make Heyward my #2 hitter that he might not do what I’d want in that spot.
Since it’s all a big rhetorical exercise, I’m pretending Heyward is inserted into the 2 spot without being asked to behave like a 1970s #2 hitter with the bunting and inside-out swinging, and saying that’s what I consider ideal-getting on base a ton, hitting a lot of line-drives, hitting some HRs.
Heyward wouldn't inside-out...
he’d probably pull for that gap on the right side. Prado would inside out. And considering Bobby likes Prado, and that Bobby has in the past has used his 2 hitter in that traditional sense and not in the way you or I think it should be used, I use the rhetoric I used in response to bighop saying he’d be pitched around if he were put in the 7 spot.
Or to put it back into the run producer vs. run scorer debate...
I’d say it depends on if the hitters are in front or behind him (hence the original comparison of the Johnson and Freeman with the guys in front of Heyward in the minors). Hit him 2nd, and he’d likely get on a lot, and be a run scorer in front of Chipper, Glaus, Esco, and McCann. Put him 6th or 7th, and he’d likely be a run producer driving those guys in. If he’s hitting and getting on, the idea of if he has a high total of runs scored or runs batted in depends on the other guys in the lineup.
I’d much Heyward focus on things like having good at bats, getting on base as much as possible, and making solid contact any time he swings, rather than dated concepts like "moving the runner over.
ideally this would be true..unfortunately thats not the case practically speaking…Managers move runners anyway they can even if it is to the detriment of scoring runs…its why the sac bunt is still around. its called situational hitting and while it isnt the ideal way to play(arguably) it is hwo the game is played.
Mr. Sanches is presenting a practical argument that says he is more likely to be forced to change his approach by the dictates of the game, then he would if he batted 7th (a generally lower leverage spot int he lineup)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Read the follow-ups though
If I’m allowed to pretend that I’m picking the line-up, then why not go ahead and pretend I’m managing so that I can tell the guy to just be a hitter and not an archetypal line-up presence. If we’re talking about ideal circumstances here, Heyward simply steps into the #2 spot with his line drive swing and his strong OBP. If he has the kind of success I’m expecting, that’s a huge contribution to the run potential of this line-up (assuming Chipper has anything left).
It would be like having 2 consecutive #3 hitters, only neither guy is knocking 30 HRs this year-both guys hopefully in low-to-mid 20s. And those two guys ahead of Glaus means he’ll probably have men on for like 60% of his plate apperances.
Or driving in runs...
and if Diaz or Prado are behind him, they can drive in runs pretty well themselves.
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 18, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
So what about...
Esco
Heyward
Chipper
McCann
Glaus
McLouth
Melky/Diaz
Prado
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 18, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
this may be blasphemy...
It seems like J-Hey is perfect for the 2-hole (at least until the 3-hole opens up), but what happens if he struggles? I’d rather see him force Bobby to move him from 7 to 2 than the other way around.
If we’re ignoring the fact that he’s never had a major league at-bat, then yes, J-hey, Chip, TG, Heap, Yunel, Mac would be sick and I certainly hope that’s the order by June.
the J-Hey kid @ 2
I’m starting to like the idea…
*3, 4, & 5 hitting behind him would protect the kid and allow him to see fast balls.
*I could see a 20/20 type player out of this. [That’s assuming Bobby would let him lose]
*More AB’s/game!
by Chesterhighwater on Mar 18, 2010 9:04 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
just because i never get tired of seeing it....
diaz
jhey
chip
glaus
heap
esco
mcstrikeout
odarp
lefty/righty switch for nate and mattyd…
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 18, 2010 5:43 PM EDT reply actions
+1
McStrikeout: Very Nice!
What manager John Russell thought when Morton hit J-Hey with a pitch, "Would you mind not shooting at the thermonuclear weapons!"
by I Saw Buzz Beaned on Mar 19, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I said Heyward should bat 2nd
but thats with Prado leading off not McLouth
Prado
Heyward
Chip
Glaus
Mac
Esco
Lil Mac
Diaz
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