leadoff hitters
by willlinn on Mar 16, 2010 1:30 PM EDT
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Printif mclouth continues to prove he shouldn't be leading off, what do yall think about batting him second and platooning Diaz and Cabrera in the leadoff spot?
Cabrera bats around 300 when he leads off an inning -- .309 against righties (.035 improvement over his average) with a .373 obp (vs. RHP)
Diaz has batted .415 leading off against LHP (.440 obp) and almost 50 points better (.300) against rhp (.417 obp)
So I am not suggesting a strict platoon between lefties and righties, in fact, batting diaz leadoff seems the way to get the most out of him against rhp. And for that matter, batting Cabrera leadoff seems like the best way to get the most out of him as well. So however much they platoon, it's a great place for both of them to bat.
Also, besides Mclouth (and heyward who is unlkely to start the season at the top of the order) they are the two best base runners on the team. Not only does this make them the next top candidates to lead off, but also, they may be the only players--besides heyward --that wouldn't be a clog in mclouth's base paths.
It should also be mentioned that Diaz-->Mclouth--> Chipper goes R-L-S; and Cabrera--> Mclouth--Chipper is S-L-S
We want Mclouth's speed at the top of the order, but we don't want to cripple him by batting him leadoff (if this continues to seem the case). It also seems a good idea to go ahead and take advantage of the fact that batting these guys leadoff gets the most out of them. They are also our best candidates as runners.
I know there is an argument that you want your leadoff hitter to be consistent, but this strategy is oriented to get MORE CONSISTENT production out of the leadoff spot than Mclouth or Diaz can offer on their own--not to mention the fact that its considerably MORE production as a whole.
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Rotten eggs
Sorry, but saying that Matt Diaz is one of the best base-runners on our team is kinda like saying “this” egg is less rotten than the other one. Our team as a whole is terrible at base-running and, in my mind, it shouldn’t be part of the equation for who leads off. The fact is we just simply don’t have a good choice for who hits at the top of our lineup.
Having said that, I was hopeful McLouth could give us a good two months before the injury bug hit him. At least that way Schafer has a chance to get going in the minors before we “need” him. All of that seems moot at this point as it appears very clear there is something not quite right with Nate. Whether it’s adjusting to his “new” eyes or some nagging minor injury I don’t know. Granted it’s still very early and a lot can change but i’m starting to get concerned
"I think the Tigers really overpaided here" ... 2/21/2010 by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Johnny Damon signing for $8 Million
the baserunner comment is secondary to the BA and OBP
its just fortunate that they happen to be the best baserunners besides mclouth (and heyward)
But in this case, that one egg actually happens to be edible. Diaz is no Jose Reyes or anything, and he doesn’t have that kind of prolific speed, but he’s a very good baserunner- good instincts and few miscues (Snitker’s bad signal to him in THAT game late last year notwithstanding).
agreed
12 sb in 425 pa is not bad… esp considering that a lot of those were against lefties who are a lot harder to steal second on…
so i think 15+ stolen bases from diaz is a pretty reasonable projection.
and obviously sb is not all there is to base running
factor in cabrera
and we are talking more than 40 stolen bases from our top two spots in the lineup, which is actually pretty solid
optimistic much….
Cabrera has never stolen more than 13 bases in a season…that was in 600+ PAs
Diaz set a career high last year with 12 bases, which is almost triple his previous high mind you…
Even if you wanted to be really positive about these two..and assume they will both get 500ABs (which is unlikely) it would be ludicrous to think you’d get more than 35 bases…they certainly wont get 40 combined in a platoon role…they’d be lucky to get 20.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
whoa whoa whoa
i am saying when you add it with mclouth.. i said 40 stolen bases out of our one and 2 hitters which, given this strategy, includes mclouth… I am saying 40 between the three of those guys all hitting in the top 2 spots in the order…
I think you have confused “base-running skills” with “stolen base ability.” The two are different; scstrato would be correct in that we don’t have any good base thieves, but we have some good baserunners. Again, Diaz has great base-running skills despite not being a prolific base stealer, though he does have some moderate swiping ability.
again… 65% success rate for Diaz
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
moderate swiping ability.
We’re on the same page. He’s a good base RUNNER, just a halfway decent base STEALER. Baserunning skills are NOT the same thing as basestealing ability.
so ur talking about going from first to third and scoring from second on shallow hits to the OF…thats a whole nother story..and i will reserve comments because thats really hard to gauge….because its completely anecdotal.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
where have you been?
he is our best leadoff hitter but he isnt good being the first batter in an inning… we want him at the top of the order but we dont want him to struggle batting first
He is not even close to being our best leadoff hitter.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is?...
Infante? Please don’t say the guy with a massive % of his career at bats in the bottom half of the order.
Of course, you know my opinion. Our best leadoff hitter would be Chipper, but then he’d likely be the “best” we could choose at any spot in the order.
Well, in all honesty, Prado is a better choice than Nate. Then again, you know that “that guy with the massive % of his career AB in the bottom half of the order” has one of the best on base abilities on the team, regardless of where he hits.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you take Nate out of the running...
That Guy’s OBP against righties in 273 PA last year: .349 (season total: .390)
That Other Left/Right/Centerfield Guys’ OBP against righties: .332
If you drop McLouth in the order and want to leave Yunel in a run-producing role, I’m afraid That Guy is as good as you’re going to get, and he isn’t as bad against righties as folks make him out to be. He owns a .276 lifetime average against them and his ability to draw walks has trended upwards in recent years, leading to an increase in his OBP against righties. He doesn’t hit righties for much power, but he gets on base against them just fine, so why not bat him leadoff, where he’ll get on base four times a game against lefties and at a .350-ish clip against righties while covering up his power outage against righties, since that isn’t exactly what you look for out of a leadoff man anyway.
You are not allowed to use logic.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
If you drop McLouth and keep Esco down...
you end up with everyone in the bottom half of the order. SOMEONE has to hit in the 1 and 2 hole despite seemingly everyone being a middle to back half of the order bat.
i disagree.. i say we dnt have a nbr 1 or two hitter….we just start with a three hitter and go from there
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
He’s our best leadoff hitter, but isn’t good at being the first batter in an inning?
If the guy can’t hit leading off an inning, then I certainly don’t want to run the risk that he’ll leadoff the inning from the 2 spot with an out, right before our best hitters come to the plate, I want to stick him down at the bottom of the lineup where his inability to leadoff an inning will hurt the team less.
Personally, I would not construct a lineup starting at leadoff. I would do it like this:
Step 1: best hitter hits #3
Step 2: Best SLG hits #4
Step 3: Best remaining OBP hits #2
Step 4: Best remaining hitter hits #5
Step 5: Best remaining OBP hits #1
Step 6: Best remaining OBP hits #8
Step 7: Best remaining SLG hits #6
Step 8: Last guy remaining hits #7
Step 9: Pitcher
Theoretically, that would make our lineup look like this:
1. Prado
2. Diaz
3. Chipper
4. Glaus
5. Escobar
6. McCann
7. Cabrera
8. McLouth
Yes, I know I left Heyward off. He would probably swap out with Diaz in this lineup…or slide into Escobars slot and move Escobar to #2 and Diaz sits or slides into McLouth’s spot and McLouth slides into the 7 hole. Something like this:
1. Prado
2. Escobar
3. Chipper
4. Glaus
5. McCann
6. Heyward
7. Cabrera
8. McLouth
or
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Chipper
4. Glaus
5. McCann
6. Escobar
7. McLouth
8. Diaz
Any of those combinations would be just fine with me, and should score a lot of runs.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 6:55 PM EDT reply actions
The last one
I like Heyward @ #2 because he can move Prado along, is faster than Chipper, Glaus and McCann, is an OB% monster, .400+ in Minor leagues, .600+ in ST, so a good chance for 1st inning runs, plus any other inning as well. Batting 6th or 7th, he could easily get caught on base behind McCann, get pitched around to get to McLouth or Diaz vs right hander, then the pitcher. Stranded.
With a .400 OB% followed by Chipper, Glaus and McCann, Heyward could score a ton of runs. In 500 AB’s that’s 200 times on base with our RBI guys coming up. Second in the order makes sense to me.
Either one floats my boat...
but I think I prefer the latter b/c Escobar is better later in the lineup.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Mar 16, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
i hadnt thought about it that way, I think that’s a worthy approach to consider…I’ll have to think about that…
ok I’ve thought about it and I like the approach…however, I don’t think it makes sense to not factor in base stealing ability…at least if there is a batter that can steal 20 bases… now after factoring that in, this guy still might not be a good leadoff hitter, for several other reasons, but I think what you’re suggesting is a little simplistc
Going by what Justin Credibul writes, here’s my lineup.
Take the best three hitters. In our case, I’m using Chipper, McCann, and McLouth. (You can put in Escobar here as well instead of McLouth). These three will go in lineup spots 1,2, and 4. Lineup spot one would be the highest OBP, which would be Chipper, but I’ll go with McLouth here just because he has some speed to run some. Your best hitter bats Number 2, and not Number 3. Though I don’t have numbers right now to back it up, I believe that the more at-bats that the 2 hitter gets over the 3 hitter, while small, makes up for the few times that the 3 hitter will hit with the first two men on base. Also, if there is no clear best hitter, lean towards more power, so I’ll pick McCann to hit 2nd and Chipper 4th.
Then, the next 3 best hitters are Escobar, Glaus, and Prado. Escobar would hit 3rd, Glaus 5th, and Prado 6th. Heyward can hit 7th and Diaz 8th with the pitcher 9th.
So my lineup is:
1. McLouth
2. McCann
3. Escobar
4. Chipper
5. Glaus
6. Prado
8. Heyward
8. Diaz
9. Pitcher
In reality, I don’t think lineup construction matters much over the course of a season, maybe costing a team 1 win or 2 at most.
Don't you think that a lot of this
Is overreacting to not only a small sample size, but also a sample in meaningless games? I mean, I know I’m of those who was completely on board with getting McLouth out of the lead-off spot, but the guy has posted an OBP over .350 for the past 3 season, and that’s very palatable for your lead-off man.
I still say platoon him in the leadoff spot with Diaz.
This.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe/maybe not
Considering Nate is using vision correction for the 1st time in his life and is striking out roughly 50% of the time, I think assuming everything will be ok in a few weeks is a little strong. If he was hitting the ball hard, but at someone, I’d agree. But he’s not making good contact when he makes contact at all. He hit one hard yesterday, maybe he’s figuring it out. I hope so. Heyward’s 1.400 OPS, McCann’s .667 avg, and lots of others stats are small sample size too, and will not continue forever. But Nate’s contacts are a new variable, he’s never tried to hit a Major League fastball or breaking ball with contact lenses until now, and he’s not proving that he can.
Of course it's an overreaction...
but what else are we going to talk about?
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Mar 16, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Something that doesn't sound like Panic
Hey, Hanson looked good today.
Hey, Acosta is actually looking good.
Hey, KK hasn’t looked so good.
Not “McLouth is going to screw this team over if we bat him leadoff!”
That's where Schafer will presumably bat
when he’s ready to play. He has good patience at the plate and draws quite a few walks. He does need to make better contact on his actual swings when he is ready.
I think if he can sustain a batting average around .285, then he’ll easily be able to keep an OBP over .360 out of the leadoff spot. And with his speed, it’s conceivable that he could sustain a .300 average, though it’s kind of a best case scenario. I still have high hopes for him. A career year for Schafer might be something like .305/.385/.480, and he could steal 40 bases without forcing things too much. But again, this depends on him getting strength in his wrist back and finding his swing again.
see now this is probably just my pessimism…but i dont see Schafer batting that high.
I have him as a 270 avg guy, but the OBP is the same as you indicate…he’s a smart guy and knows how to be patient when he needs to (look how many walks he got when he was batting 8th…he knows how to lay off pitches if he has to, obviously its different when pitchers are trying to walk u when u bat 8th and they are trying to keep u off base when u bat 1st)..
but like i said that could just be my pessimism..i love schafer, but nothign i have seen indicate he can hit 285 (im talking his minor league numbers…i could care less about what he did in 09)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
couldn’t…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 18, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
no i could care less. i care some so its conceivable that i could care less…
Sangano!
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
hahahaha.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 19, 2010 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Could work perfect
to start the season with
Nate
Prado
Chip
Glaus
Heap
Escobar
Heyward
Diaz/Melk
P
after 2 months, depending on performance, Prado can move to 1st, Heyward to 2nd, McLouth to 7th
But at least let Nate fight for the spot, let Prado prove he can hit high in the order, and let J-Hey prove he can hit MLB pitching. Let’s talk again in June.
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