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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Dude is drinking some serious Kool-Aid this time around, pegging the Angels as the top rotation in baseball. Really? Never-done-a-thing-without-Dave-Duncan Pineiro, failed ace Kazmir, and Weaver coming off a career year is the best out there? I don't want to be a homer and declare our rotation is tops necessarily, but you'd have to think that us, Boston, and Seattle would at least be in the conversation more than LAA. Can we just lock this guy in a closet until Christmas?

4 months ago Tiny J-Freak 17 comments 0 recs  | 

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Ugh

I don’t understand why he thinks this. A simple look at the numbers could show him 5 other rotations in baseball that are clearly better.

And why let him out for Christmas? :)

The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."

by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 15, 2010 10:04 PM EDT reply actions  

I figured everybody could use a break on Christmas, but I’m open-minded and willing to change that view…

by J-Freak on Mar 15, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's wait until March

Free agency picks up right around Christmas time. I don’t want extra bologna rumors going around.

Omar Minaya is my hero!
"I'm not even allowed in Mexico."

by mvhsbball on Mar 15, 2010 11:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

A fair point. Although it’s March now, so if we let him out next March we’ll suffer through more malarky like this… Oh fuck it. We’ll strap him to a rocket and launch him to Mars. Good effing riddance.

by J-Freak on Mar 15, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

1. NYY
2. ATL
3. Seattle
4. SF
5. Boston
6. Philly
7. STL
8. Maybe the Angels here?

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 15, 2010 11:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I wouldn’t rank the Yankees first. CC is stout, but AJ is massively overrated, Joba hasn’t figured it out yet, and they’re going to get the old-school 4+ ERA Javy. Pettitte is pretty solid but not spectacular. I’d give the top edge to Boston. Beckett and Lester are both aces, and Lackey very nearly so. Wakefield is still throwin up solid seasons and Daisuke is a 3-4 guy who occasionally comes out and throws like an ace. Plus if anybody goes down they have Bucholz waiting in the wings, who looks like a 3 guy but has 2-guy upside. I certainly wouldn’t rank them behind SF; Lincecum is a thoroughbred, but Cain is due to regress, Zito is still nothing special, Sanchez is still figuring it out, and Bumgarner has a high ceiling but virtually no major league experience as of yet, so it’s tough to gauge what you’ll get out of him. If everything breaks their way and Cain manages to repeat his astoundingly good luck, Sanchez figures it out and Bumgarner comes out looking like an ace from the word go they’ll have the best staff, but that’s asking for a lot to break just right for them. As it stands I’d go
1. Boston
2. ATL
3. Seattle
4. SF
5. NYY.

by J-Freak on Mar 16, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with J-Freak

NY is really good, but not best in the league.
I basically agree with his rankings, though i might swap SF and Seattle

by Zeus12888 on Mar 16, 2010 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I almost did the same, but at the end of the day all those question marks above plus the knockout duo of Felix/Lee made me stick with Seattle there.

by J-Freak on Mar 16, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I totally disagree with Boston. I was tempted to not even put them on the top 5, but their front 3 are so strong that they can’t be overlooked. Dice-K is nothing more than a league average pitcher and Clay Buchholz has done nothing outside of that one magical game. I think Boston’s 4/5 is much weaker than the Yankees. Burnett is massively overrated as an Ace, but he is a legit #2, and when you follow him up with a still-effective Pettit (much more effective than Wakefield) and Vazquez is your #4, you have an outstanding rotation. Joba will not be (or at least, SHOULD not be) their 5th starter. He is a legit setup man, but an overmatched starter.

I think Boston is in the same boat as STL 1-5, but they are slightly better than Philly or STL in the 4/5 spots. Like I said, their top 3 is as good as it gets, but after that, there is a severe drop off.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

You apparently missed the part

where Bucholz was scortching hot down the stretch last year (something like 6-2, low 2’s ERA in August and September) without anything to do with a magical game from 2007. Remember also that last time you said Dice-K has always sucked, I proved you wrong, so let’s not go there again. If we want to compare, NYY and BOS, let’s take a look side by side:

1. CC Sabathia v. Josh Beckett Advantage: Yankees
2. AJ Burnett v. John Lester Advantage: Red Sox (and this doesn’t even include the fact that after two healthy seasons, Burnett is bound to get hurt this year)
3. Andy Pettitte v. John Lester Advantage: Red Sox. Easily.
4. Javy Vazquez v. Clay Bucholz Advantage: Yankees (Yes, Vazquez will probably have an ERA around 4.00. That’s still pretty good in that division and ballpark. And yes, Bucholz is the #4, not the #6 as J-Freak suggests; Dice-K likely starts the season on the DL and given his injury problems, he’s the one who will be more likely to get starts skipped when he returns. Wakefield becomes the swingman #6 starter when/if Dice-K returns (his first batting practice session was put off again yesterday)
5. Chamberlain/Hughes/Gaudin/Aceves v. Wakefield/Dice-K Advantage: Toss-up. Personally, I am rooting for Gaudin to get the rotation spot, but that’s only because he played in a table tennis league I was in over the off-season (yes, I beat him the only time we played; no I didn’t realize that it was him until after the league ended; I didn’t want to be the putz who asked him if he was the real Chad Gaudin (around here the name is not that extraordinary) and he wasn’t particulary big or wear any baseball gear at all. Cool, very down to earth guy—hell I didn’t even know it was him and I did take notice of his name on the league roster). Anyway, back to analysis, there is no way to judge this spot without knowing who is going to be pitching it.

Overall, I give a slight edge to the Red Sox because I think their advantage at #2 and #3 is more than the Yankees’ advantage at #1 and #4, but it is very close.

by cavebird on Mar 16, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Remember also that last time you said Dice-K has always sucked, I proved you wrong, so let’s not go there again

He has never been more than league average, and you cannot prove otherwise.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Clay Buchhoz by year:

2007: 22 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 5.6 H/9, 4 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 2.2 K:BB
2008: 76 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.763 WHIP, 11 H/9, 4.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.76 K:BB
2009: 92 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.89 K:BB

And just for fun, Dice-K by year:

2007: 204.2 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.51 K:BB
2008: 167.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 5 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.64 K:BB
2009: 59.1 IP, 5.76 ERA, 1.871, WHIP, 12.3 H/9, 4.6 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 K:BB

Baseball-reference.com lists the following pitchers as comparables: John Maine and Matt Garza. So, Dice-K is nothing greater than league-average.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Clay Buchhols down the stretch (from 2 August – 4 Oct):

6-3, 76 IP, 29 BB, 57 K, 4.34 ERA.

He had a 6 game streak where he was hot, but that doesn’t really mean anything when you look at his whole body of work. He started off good, got bad, got good again, and finished badly. Buchholz is nothing special. His comp by B-R.com is Ricky Nolasco.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Buchhols = Buchholz.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dude! I saw this too and just laughed. He’s just plain DUMB

by Zeus12888 on Mar 16, 2010 2:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Most of their rotation wouldn’t even make our bullpen…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Mar 16, 2010 8:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow…I just realized that he didn’t even mention the Braves rotation at all…not even for dpeth and quality. He said that nobody can match the Angels depth – wow.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2010 9:23 AM EDT reply actions  

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