Escobar Should Hit Lead-off
by jdunk on Mar 12, 2010 9:17 PM EST
46 comments
I've seen plenty of lineup scenarios around the site, and few if any mention Yunel as a serious lead-off candidate. I realize his RISP numbers were great last year, but I believe McLouth and possibly even Prado would be as productive in the #6 hole given their superior slugging percentages.
Add to this the fact that Escobar's on-base skills are superior to any other lead-off candidate, and it seems like a no brainer. You are putting Escobar in a position that maximizes his best skill, while allowing you to move McLouth and Prado (more on this further down) down in the order.
I would also bat Heyward 2nd in the lineup from Day 1. His on-base skills appear to be behind only Chipper and maybe Glaus on the team. He seems to make more sense that Prado or McLouth in this spot unless you think its too much for him to handle.
Back to the original argument, I realize this will basically boil down to everyone's though on whether hitting RISP is actually a skill. I'm sure most will agree Escobar is a good lead-off candidate, but many will want to see him down in the order in order to use his RISP "skill".
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i concur.
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 13, 2010 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
But yeah I'm not sure about this...
but I think he’s been quoted saying he doesn’t like batting leadoff.
Yunel Escobar stats by batting position (Plate appearances in parenthesis)
1. 309 .371 .428 .799 (358)
2. .293 .360 .413 .773 (665)
3. .313 .371 .375 .746 (36)
4. 154 .389 .385 .774 (18)
5. .295 .379 .481 .859 (181)
6. .324 .413 .434 .848 (168)
7. .333 .333 .333 .667 (7)
8. .333 .410 .486 .896 (83)
9. .250 .400 .250 .650 (30)
I think the numbers are good enough indicators that Yunel does not really give us optimal performance batting at the top of the order. While the sample sizes are considerably smaller, I think he has shown that he pretty much thrives in the 5/6 spots.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 12, 2010 11:05 PM EST reply actions
So what you're saying is........
bat him cleanup?
by BravesRaleigh on Mar 12, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
This
I’d bat him 6th. Something like this for an initial lineup:
Prado
Diaz (against LHP) / McLouth
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
Heyward
McLouth (against LHP) / Cabrera / Diaz
Then, you can move Heyward up to #2 if he is doing well or keep him where he is.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Exactly what I'd like to see.
I think this lineup maximizes every player’s potential the best.
McLouth at 2nd vs. righties makes good sense, because he has historically hit awful when leading off an inning. Putting Diaz there vs. lefties is perfect, because his OBP is high and he’ll hit for good power, and it’d be nice to utilize that power in the 2-spot rather than in the one spot.
I like Prado leading off, because he hits very well when leading off an inning. People may argue that Prado doesn’t have the on-base skills that McLouth has, but as long as Prado keeps his BA high, he’ll do great.
The third-base umpire ran into the outfield and retrieved the biggest chunk. "It's a f***in' potato."
by alligatorimpersonator on Mar 13, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
i think there is something to that..
its worth considering batting prado first so that you are platooning the 2 and 8 hitters as opposed to the 1 and 8 hitters… however, say the no. 2 hitter gets on, his base options are very limited… either he has prado ahead of him or an out… having mclouth on 1st with 1 out vs being on 1st with no outs is a huuuge difference..
i think the idea behind Yunel batting 5/6 is that he has the most power potential of the three guys you listed…more than Prado or McLouth…that doesnt mean he’ll hit more HR next year, but based on his size he has the most power potential
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I don’t buy the power potential argument. You wouldn’t put a guy in a run producing spot in the lineup based on some yet to be discovered potential. I’d put the chances that Yunel ever hits as many homeruns in a season as McLouth has as extremely low.
If Escobar excels in the #6 spot it will be because of his RISP numbers, not his power potential we’ve been hearing about for 3 seasons.
Nate McLouth HR totals
1st full season: 7 (16 doubles
2nd full season: 13 (21 doubles)
3rd full season: 26 (46 doubles)
4th full season: 20 (27 doubles)
Yunel Escobar HR totals
1st full season: 5 (25 doubles)
2nd full season: 10 (24 doubles)
3rd full season: 14 (26 doubles)
Other than Nate’s 26 HR season, the power numbers are VERY similar.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2010 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
One thing...
His avg. with RISP is going to be dependent on how often the guys hitting in front of him are getting on base. Ideally Chipper, Mac, and Glaus would provide Escobar with that opportunity. If for some reason they are not, and Mclouth is struggling in the leadoff spot, then yeah I’d be in favor of moving him, but I disagree about his base running skills being superior to Mclouth’s. Both are good, but Escobar seems to make some bone headed mistakes at times. Mclouth rarely gets CS, and base stealing is rarely in Bobby’s arsenal any way, so in that repsect Diaz, Escobar, and Mclouth would be good contenders for the leadoff spot. But My guess would be that if the big guns are getting on base a lot, then Escobar will bat 6th to bring them in, since he seems to be a clutch hitter. But I do agree that Escobar would do alright in the leadoff spot. He’s a pretty damn good hitter all around.
When i said on-base skills i meant his ability to get on base, i.e. walks, not his baserunning ability.
I agree he isn’t the best baserunner, but I’m not too worried about stolen bases in the lead-off spot. I want a high OBP guy with a relatively low SLG%, which for this team is Escobar.
oh ok...
I see what you mean. and what I should have said is that the effectiveness of his avg. with RISP will be determined by whether or not the guys before him get on base, not the actual avg. itself. I’d hit Mcloth leadoff, but you make a strong argument for Escobar, and I woldnt be upset if he was in the 1 spot this year.
Nope.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Mar 13, 2010 12:49 AM EST reply actions
Here's the question I've been wondering:
How long do we stick with McLouth hitting leadoff? I know, i know, its only Spring Training, but the man has a bunt base-hit and a little blooper to LF as his only hits so far. He struggled (even though he was injured) down the stretch and still seems much better suited to hit 6th-8th.
Obviously, these games mean nothing and there’s still a ton of time for Nate to rebound. But if he were to keep this up throughout the spring, do we keep him at leadoff? Does Bobby at least start giving other guys like Melky, MattyD and/or Prado time at leadoff?
Thoughts?
Omar Minaya is my hero!
"I'm not even allowed in Mexico."
Heyward at the 2 spot will limit his abilities as a hitter. He will spend more time sacrificing to move the lead off man to scoring position (bunting or pulling pitches) than actually getting a chance to hit especially if its a tight game with an elite pitcher on the mound.
Jim Leyland, "Heyward destroyed the ball. He reminds me of Babe Ruth, Albert Pujols, and that Hank Aaron fellow." (Just paraphrasing not an exact quote)
by romone_braves91 on Mar 13, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
If Heyward bunts...
unless it’s by his own choosing on a poor fielding P with corner IFs pushed deep back scared of his frozen ropes, then someone needs to be asked serious questions. No bunting except for Ps.
And that lineup, it looks like a bunch of doubles hitters (except Glaus, Prado, and Melky), let them spray it all over including Heyward.
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 13, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
escobar might not like leading off, but neither does mclouth
what if mclouth just really struggles batting first? We would be ruining his production by continuing to put him there… obviously he is the best candidate on paper, but he seems to really struggle batting first. Is that a reason to bat him second?
That’s an enormous IF though. Historically he looks more comfortable (read: much better numbers) lower in the order. He didn’t do well in that role for us last year, though I’m willing to write that off as due to injury and SSS. But if he starts the season the way he’s hitting in ST right now my patience with him is going to run out very quickly. I say give Matty D a shot. He couldn’t possibly be worse at this point, but he could potentially be so much better.
I like Prado at the 1
I know Esco has his GIDP problems, but his RISP is too good to have at the 1. He should start the season hitting 6th.
Phuck the Phillies
I wouldn't mind seeing
JHey getting some time in the 7th and then if all goes well, change it up. I really would like to see:
1. JHey
2. Esco
3. Chip
4. Glaus
5. Mac
6. Nate
7. Prado
8. Diaz/Melky
We already know he’ll work the pitcher and should be able to steal some bases to avoid the double play by Esco.
Phuck the Phillies
Prado
Nate
Chip
Glaus
Mac
Yunel
JHey
Diaz/Melky
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Mar 13, 2010 1:17 PM EST reply actions
oh gosh here
1) McClouth
2) Prado
3) Heyward
4) Glaus
5) Chipper
6) McCann
7) Escobar
8) Diaz/Melky
hows that for a little different. chippers power is down, slide him down the lineup where he will still contribute.
The idea of Heyward breaking up double plays....
McLouth
Prado
Chipper
Glaus
Heyward
Esco
McCann
Diaz/Melky
Of course, as the season plays out, how everyone produces could see lots of shuffling. With the bench, if healthy Bobby has plenty of options to tinker with righty/lefty and hot/cold.
Mac 7th?! No wayy.
McCann is wayyy too good a hitter to bat below 6th in anyone’s lineup. Let alone the Braves.
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
In that lineup...
we’ve got a lot of quality hitters in there, so it makes sense. And as the season plays out and Bobby shuffles the lineup giving various guys a day off here and there, they can move up or down as need be.
Some of the thinking there with McCann is—C, so with the wear and tear of that position and responsibilities that come with it, a lower spot in the order might allow him more time to rest and to focus on C. Plus may as well let Ross get 1-2 starts per week helping McCann stay fresh for August, September, and hopefully October.
Heyward in front of Esco. With his tendnecy to hit into double plays, I have become enamored with the idea of Heyward hitting in front of Esco. For one, it’s good speed on the basepaths and extra base power for Esco to drive in. Plus, in the times he does put one on the ground, anyone want to be a 2B or SS trying to turn two with 6’6, 250+ coming full speed at you? Just having that obstacle to throw around with the fear of getting flattened would likely reduce those DPs of Esco.
Outside of those 3, the rest of the order seems to have been Bobby’s main placement so far this spring. But in my mind, depending on if Infante is in (possibly our best leadoff man), or Hinske, Ross, Melky/Diaz, and how everyone is producing at that point in the year be it hot or cold, and lefty/righty matchups both for balance in the order and depending on the opposing starter, Bobby can work a dozen or so different lineup combinations as he sees fit, and I’d expect him to tinker often early on before settling in around the 4th of July (health permitting).
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 15, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I like this lineup. No disrespect to Mac, but as balanced as our lineup is, I don’t see it hurtin us. The only thing would if is pitchers start pitching around Mac hitting 7. I don’t like putting tons of pressure on young players, but I would be suprised if McCanns numbers are much better than Heywards at the end of the year. I can see Heyward hitting 25+ bombs, hitting .280 or higher. Having Heyward in there more consistantly hitting in the 5 whole may be a bonus. Where things would get interesting is if Glaus struggles, then what?
Diaz
Heyward
Chipper
Glaus
Heap
Escobar
McLouth
Prado
Lefty/Righty switch for McStrikeout and Matty D.
Pujols is NOT God.... sure he'll hit .350, hit 50 bombs, and drive in a 125....but then again...so will Heyward..
by lemke2blauser2bream on Mar 14, 2010 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
the season couldn't start this way...
but I do like the idea of heyward batting 2nd part way through a good season…
and I am definitely a fan of doing a L/R platoon of mclouth and diaz, and I’ll be honest… if heyward is batting second as opposed to prado, then I would also put mclouth/diaz at the 7 spot
This thread reeks of rosterbatory comments.
Just the way I like it.
Wild Idea, but bear with me
Prado
McCann
Chipper
Glaus
Heyward
Esco
Mclouth
Diaz
Giving us R, L, S, R, L, R, L, R
Mac gets on base soo much and I think he’ll score runs because of the three power bats behind him. He can score from first on a double….(every once in a while)….
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
I don’t understand the purpose of flipping Heap and God in that scenario. Or McLouth, for that matter. If you put McLouth-Heap-God 2-5-7, it doesn’t change your handedness argument but it puts Heap in his customary run-producer spot, keeps McLouth out of his dreaded leadoff role, and still gives God a semi-run producing slot but less pressure so we can watch how he develops a little more closely. There’s nothing wrong with proposing something new, but in this case I don’t see the utility. What is it that makes this lineup markedly better than the others proposed?
Good point. We should also throw Pujols in that mix, since he hasn’t done anything this spring either.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 15, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
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