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At $2 Million, is Johnny Damon an Upgrade Over Current Options

Currently, Johnny Damon is still unsigned and his market is continuing to drop. His price may eventually fall to the Braves' supposed asking price of $2 million. My question is, is Johnny Damon at $2 million an upgrade over current options?

On its face, Damon’s 2009 season should make him a very valuable commodity. He set career highs in OPS+ at 126, isoSLG (The difference between his batting average and slugging percentage, demonstrating power numbers) at .207, and tied a career best with 24 home runs.

The problem with these numbers is that over the past three years his home and away statistics are separating more and more each season. As Damon has aged, he has used the short right porch in right field of Yankee Stadium to his advantage.

In 2007, his home OPS was .742 and away was .750, in 2008 his home OPS was .846 and away .827, and in 2009 his home OPS was .889 and away .776.

The dipping away OPS, along with his age, and -12.1 UZR/150 in left field last season makes it understandable why so many teams have been passing on Damon’s services.

The current options for left field are a Matt Diaz platoon with either Eric Hinske or Melky Cabrera, and possibly later in the season Jordan Schafer.

Hinske has similar career platoon statistics as Damon, and had 5.3 UZR/150 in the outfield last season—much better than Damon’s.

Cabrera was not on Damon’s level offensively last season, however, outside of Yankee Stadium the splits were not as vast as one would assume.

Cabrera’s .745 OPS in away games last year, coupled with his age (25), and his career 4.0 UZR/150 in left field make him just as serviceable in left field as Damon, in my opinion.

Lastly, unless Schafer proves to be a much better player than he was last season he is not a better option than Damon. However, if Jordan produces how he had before his injury last season and in his minor league seasons, then Jordan’s defense and offense would make him a very valuable and cheap option left field.

Outside of the current options, as previously stated Johnny Damon would cost at least $2 million. This would handcuff the Braves if they want to make a midseason trade as they did last season with Nate McLouth.

Johnny Damon was a crucial part of last year's World Series champion New York Yankees, but Turner Field is not Yankee Stadium.

Maybe Damon can perform next year, but at the age of 36 moving into a bigger ballpark will severely decrease his overall value. The question still remains, is Johnny Damon at $2 million an upgrade over the Braves' current options?

Poll
Is Johnny Damon an Upgrade?
Yes
109 votes
No
123 votes
Not sure
31 votes

263 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

Comment 77 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Damon at $2M still isn’t going to happen. His offense isn’t going to be nearly as good away from Yankee Stadium and he can only play LF. McLouth will be starting in CF and unless Heyward bombs out in ST the RF job is his. Diaz deserves to finally get the chance to play everyday in LF. Cabrera is a useful player because he can play all 3 outfield positions. If we signed Damon it would mean either Heyward stayed at AAA for awhile and Diaz started in RF or Cabrera was traded. If Cabrera is traded we lose the one guy who could start for awhile due to injury or fill in short term for guys needing a rest. I know Infante can play the OF but with Prado starting at 2B he will probably be seeing more time in the infield.
I doubt Damon’s asking price drops as far as $2M. My guess is that he holds out until a team has an injury or a player doesn’t perform like they expected and they get desperate and overpay for him.

by jack dein on Feb 2, 2010 4:12 PM EST reply actions  

I agree. I think if his best offer is $2 million, he’d rather sit out spring training hoping for an injury on a big market team to clear a spot for him. He’s obviously worth more than $2M and eventually someone will give it to him.

Unless we have an injury to one of our outfielders, I don’t see us even offering $2M. The team we’ve got now is pretty much the team we’ll break camp with, and any excess budget will be better served for a midseason trade than adding a guy who’d be a slight improvement.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

He’s obviously worth more than $2M got an agent that’s convinced him he’s worth way more than he actually is.

FTFY

by J-Freak on Feb 2, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the Tigers...

…will pay him $5 million or so. I doubt it gets to $2 million. At $2 million, he is an interesting proposition, as we could use him as a platoon guy with Diaz in left. (We really, really don’t want the OF defense of Diaz in right and Damon in left.) However, he isn’t going to sign for that little for a platoon role—he’ll get more money and playing time elsewhere.

by cavebird on Feb 2, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions  

Say No To Damon!!!!

Move on everyone, this isn’t going to happen and we shouldn’t want it to. He isn’t worth anything we would pay him. He won’t put up that kind of year outside of Yankee Stadium. Nate is better than him, Diaz is better in the field just as fast if not faster and arguably a better hitter, and I think it’s Heyward’s time. He may not come out and tear it up, but I can’t see what happened to Schafer happening to him. If he meets expectations of the realists out there he is a better option than Damon plus it will give him a year more of experience to slide in the 3 whole when Chip leaves and become the star he will be. Also, I think Melky is more of a sure thing than Damon.

by JKowalek on Feb 2, 2010 4:40 PM EST reply actions  

Whenever he plays in Atlanta, Schafer will play CF, not LF.

by fandave on Feb 2, 2010 4:45 PM EST reply actions  

Over McLouth and/or Cabrera? Well, maybe. I don’t think he’s clearly better than any of them, defensively. All 3 are average to a bit below average. Of course, you’d have to say Schafer is the best bet to improve. But he’s not Andruw Jones out there, so CF is no slam dunk.

Personally, I’d put him in RF. His arm will play there. LF would be a waste along those lines.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Feb 2, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Schafer is way above average on D in CF. He is clearly better than any OFer on our roster currently.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 2, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. And don’t think there’s any doubt about it.

by fandave on Feb 3, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

He’s not an upgrade. Diaz is poised to handle left field on a full-time basis- he will not be in a traditional platoon with Hinske or Cabrera. Those guys will see some time, sure, but Diaz will get at least 3/4 the playing time unless his avg against righties drops under the Mendoza line, and 3/4 a season of Diaz is at the very worst equivalent to what we’ll get out of Damon, so save the money.

Also, the coming of Jordan Schafer will push McLouth either out of Atlanta or into a traditional platoon with Diaz, probably meaning Cabrera would leave town instead. Schafer’s talents will not be squandered in left.

by J-Freak on Feb 2, 2010 4:48 PM EST reply actions  

almost exactly my thoughts

J-Freak, that’s a great analysis. Diaz deserves a chance in left field, I don’t think he will disappoint. I think we will keep the younger, less expensive, 3 position playing Cabrera rather than McLouth. I like the Diaz/McLouth, Schafer, Heyward outfield, but we can bring in some infield help by trading McLouth with some years available on his contract.

by bighop on Feb 2, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

obviously we would prefer nate over cabrera, but let’s be honest, at the salary he deserves he won’t be a platoon player or fourth outfielder…If Schafer positions himself to become the starting center fielder, then our spot for Nate would be as a backup cf and starting corner OF, but w/o a real plus arm that’s not a good spot for him. He won’t take Heyward’s spot, so arguably—in the event that schafer proves himself—he is competing with Diaz for a ’11 spot…If Diaz proves himself as an everyday player this year, and as a significantly cheaper option than Nate, it seems unlikely he will be in atlanta after this year… So keep Melky as a fourth outfielder? maybe? I see that as a tossup as well.

that said, I am a huge supporter of mclouth, I love his swing, I think there is the chance he will have a great season and be hard to say goodbye to—that might change things..I am certainly hoping for a great season with him in center this year…also, how well schafer does is still a big question…but if he is a goodlooking starting cf for ’11 I doubt Mclouth will stay with the team

by willlinn on Feb 2, 2010 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Save the Money for the Bullpen.

Even if Johnny damon is an upgrade over our current options, it isn’t that much of an upgrade. Is it really that much of an upgrade if we go from a C+ to B-?

I think we’d be better off we if saved that money for a mid-season trade, given the questionable expectations of our bullpen. Does anyone really trust Wagner and Saito?

Just because Damon is avaliable doesn’t mean we should sign him.

by Braves Biceps on Feb 2, 2010 5:02 PM EST reply actions  

bullpen

We sign Resop, but leave Kiko Calero out there. He could come in handy if Saito needs a nap.

by bighop on Feb 2, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

There have been reports that Calero’s arm wont hold up the entire season, which is why the Marlins have stayed away. If his medical report is sprinkled with red flags, makes sense hes still out there. But the kid has great stuff

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Feb 3, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

He's not exactly a kid.

IIRC, he’s only a couple of years younger than Wagner and Saito (like 35 or 36 or something).

by cavebird on Feb 3, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow, you are correct sir. 35 years old. My bad

But hes a kid at heart…..

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Feb 3, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

If we’re gonna spend $2 mil on a random free agent, I’d rather it be on Calero, even though that’s really overpaying him right now, better than Damon though.

by BravesRaleigh on Feb 2, 2010 5:12 PM EST reply actions  

Can we get some sort of Talking Chop limit on the number of fanposts/fanshots about Damon? I mean, it is almost like everyday someone has something “new” to add to the discussion.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 2, 2010 7:28 PM EST reply actions  

Dr. heapofoatmeal says just say no to Damon’s rag arm.

hindsight is 20-13 just like Ted William actual vision- ken tremendous

by heapofoatmeal on Feb 2, 2010 8:02 PM EST reply actions  

Agree. Whatever he makes up for in his bat over Cabrera is lost in his noodle arm and average defense.

by soup du jour on Feb 3, 2010 8:20 AM EST up reply actions  

And Cabrera can improve plenty while Damon is on his way out.

by bbxxj on Feb 3, 2010 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

43% percent say yes? How does that happen? Must be trolls.

by bbxxj on Feb 2, 2010 10:07 PM EST reply actions  

The mysterious non-commentors…

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Feb 3, 2010 8:07 AM EST up reply actions  

They don’t want to post because they would get torn to pieces.

by bbxxj on Feb 3, 2010 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Only if their posts are ridiculous.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

At 2 million a year for a year, maybe with an option for another would be an upgrade. The thing to consider is that we really don’t have a good leadoff hitter. I like McClouth, but I think his time would be better spent in the 7th hole. I know most of you would like Diaz get a chance at the leadoff spot. I don’t think that would be the best for the team. Damon is a veteran, proven leadoff hitter. He knows how to work the count. How many times does Diaz swing at the first pitch? I like the idea, at 2 million to grab a proven leadoff hitter.

It has gives up flexibility. I don’t think McClouth will be around after this season, if he makes it that far. His big raise is coming, and we, being a mid market team, can’t afford to pay him that. By bringing in Damon, we may be able to trade McClouth for a need when Heyward comes up.

by dlkinser86 on Feb 3, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

Diaz has a higher career OBP than Damon, and we are talking about over 1200 PAs by Diaz, so the sample size argument is weak.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

In the bottom half of the order in a platoon role...

taken that into consideration, I think questioning his ability as every day leadoff hitter is strong.

by Mr. Sanchez on Feb 3, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I get that. I really do. However, to say that Damon is better is not 100% accurate – especially at a $2M price tag.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

to say Damon is a better leadoff hitter...

would only be inaccurate based on 20/20 hindsight. Without knowing how either does in the coming 10 months, Damon is the only one with a legitimate past of actually producing in a leadoff role. Diaz has had some good games hitting leadoff, but in his career we’re only talking about a handful of games. Not saying he can’t get it done, but depending on a guy who has never started 100 games, and spent the VAST majority of his career hitting 6th or lower, to hit leadoff is about as wise as relying on John Smoltz to be your #2 starter. Sure, he MIGHT do the job, but the chances are slim.

by Mr. Sanchez on Feb 3, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

But we are all ignoring Diaz’s improvements in his game. He is only getting better (learning to take walks, etc) while Damon is undeniably in decline.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

No, I'm not...

I see the improvements, and it’s why I say he can get it done (or not saying he can’t to accurately quote above).

But what I’m not doing is ignoring the fact that in spite of those improvements, he’s still yet to top 100 starts in a season, yet to have 375 at bats in a single season, and has only a handful of games starting in the leadoff role compared to many, many more starting in the lower end of the order. I’m also choosing not to ignore the fact that Bobby Cox, the very man who will be making lineups next year, had numerous opportunities to choose between McLouth and Diaz in the leadoff role late lasst year, and chose McLouth.

by Mr. Sanchez on Feb 3, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

And might I add

isn’t a young player coming into his prime, but a journeyman. He has earned himself a look due to his improvement and hard work, but we may have already seen Diaz’s peak. In other words, this isn’t a younger prospect with a high ceiling, he probably can only do so much better and will likely start to slowly decline from here.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

This was my point. Diaz has been setup to succeed. I don’t taking him from a platoon role to a leadoff spot would be the best thing. Don’t get me wrong, like a lot of people, I feel that he, at the very least deserves a shot at an everyday starting gig, but I like him to be in the bottom of the order.

by dlkinser86 on Feb 4, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

The argument is very relevant

Diaz’s OBP is a mere 3 pts higher, has had nearly all of his experience in a platoon situation, and is bolstered by an unsustainable .366 BABIP (which is better than Ichiro’s, Diaz cannot sustain that).

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

He has sustained a high BaBIP for his whole career…BaBIP for hitters is not like pitchers – each one is unique to the specific player.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

I get that. But a BABIP of .360 is extroardinarily high for any player. The only every day players that can really sustain that are guys like Ichiro who can turn an automatic out into a single with his speed. Diaz isn’t like that, but if you think he can hold a BABIP up there with Ichiro and HanRam, I think you will be in for some disappointment. Can he sustain a higher than average BABIP? I think so because of the things he does bring to the table, but a .360 is too high to rely on.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

dlkkinser...how does signing Damon allow us to trade McLouth when Heyward comes up?

An OF of Damon in left, McLouth in center, and Diaz in right is a defensive disaster already, but if we traded McLouth because Heyward came up, we wouldn’t have a centerfielder at all except for Melky Cabrera. I have no idea why signing Damon would affect the centerfield situation at all. Damon certainly cannot play center anymore.

by cavebird on Feb 3, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I was actually thinking that Heyward would be able to play CF for a bit. Damon in LF, Heyward in CF and Diaz in RF.

by dlkinser86 on Feb 4, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow, that's a disasterous defensive outfield.

Diaz was horrible in RF last year, Damon’s range is okay but he has absolutely zero arm, and Heyward can probably play CF in a pinch, but his size means that it will be a bit of a stretch. Any runs we gain in offense, that outfield defense will quickly give back.

by cavebird on Feb 4, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Heyward is actually a very capable centerfielder, but I’d agree, it’s not something he should do over long stretches.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
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by cbwilk on Feb 4, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I voted yes

and I would be happy to expound on why I did so.

Damon is an OBP monster, still a good base-stealer, and while he isn’t a power hitter he can still hit pretty damn well. I liken him to Abreu last year. Is he the player he used to be? No. Is he worth having on a 1 year contract. You bet your ass he is. A 1 year contract for $2 million? Sign me up now. Even if you conclude that Diaz is better and you don’t want to block Heyward, who would you rather as your fourth OFer; Damon or Melky? I should add that Melky is being paid $3.1 million for relative suckiness. Hell, Damon is worth a 1 year $5 million dollar investment for the Braves, which is why I wish they would just suck it up and do it.

A couple more things I would add: Damon could probably fill in at 1b and would probably be excellent trade bait come deadline time. There is almost no way the Braves could lose on picking up Damon, and there is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal anyway. The only thing ridiculous is dismissing the idea without thinking it through.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

OBP Monster? He has a career OBP of .355.

For reference, the following Braves have a higher career OBP than Damon:

Diaz – .358 (1200 PAs)
Chipper – .406 (WHAT???)
Glaus – .359
McCann – .356
Escobar – .375
Prado – .360 (868 PAs)
Greg White – .357 (567 PAs)

that “OBP Machine” will have the 8th highest OBP on the team. No thanks.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say

that there weren’t players better than him at getting on base. Chipper is obvious as a future HOFer, for my thoughts on Diaz, see my above statement. I can only hope that Escobar, McCann, and Prado sustain their OBP’s for as long as Damon has. He has been consistently at around .350 or better for his entire career, most of it playing in the NL East.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The division he plays in is irrelevant – it isn’t like the pitching in the ALE is better than any other division. The hitting, certainly, but the pitching not so much – at least, historically.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I will throw this out there as a side comment:

The Yankees have allowed Matsui, Damon, and Melky to disappear from their roster, and have picked up Granderson and Winn to go with Swisher and Gardner. That’s gonna be interesting. I think they may be a bit vulnerable.

by carpengui on Feb 3, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Indeed. Is it possible that they are finally seeing the effects of their ridiculous salary obligations catch up to them?

They have certainly downgraded, IMO. And how many times have we heard them actually talk about a budget this offseason? I can’t remember ever hearing that from a Steinbrenner before.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Clarification: I think Granderson is better than any of the OFers the have let go, and Vazquez certainly upgrades their rotation.

However, Winn and Gardner are not upgrades (offensively) to Damon, Matsui or Melky.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Right.

And how many organizations turn over an entire outfield in one shot? Even if you believe the other guys were on their last legs, there IS an experience factor to be weighed.

by carpengui on Feb 3, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh

Granderson’s L/R splits have to be cause for concern, but you may be right. Vazquez is a serious upgrade.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Matsui was exclusively used as a DH last season, and has been replaced in that role by Nick Johnson, who certainly has the ability to match anything Matsui could do with the bat.

And Melky is coming off a career year offensively, thanks to posting a SLG over .400 for the first time in his career. Hopefully that’s a sign for us that he’s adding power as he gets older. Still, Melky is a career .716 OPS guy, so I don’t know that either Gardner or Winn won’t be able to outproduce him.

Certainly if you factor in defense, Gardner is likely to be a more valuable player than Melky if the Yanks are willing to give him the CF job.

by Lennox on Feb 4, 2010 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I am not sure about that.

Nick Johnson is a good OBP guy, but any power he used to have has disappeared, so he won’t have the power Matsui did. At least we know from recent history that Johnson will be able to match, if not exceed, Matsui’s time on the DL.

As for Melky vs. Gardner, that’s a tough call. Melky is more versatile and has an average bat. Gardner is better in center and has more speed, but he still hasn’t shown that he can hit well enough to be a fulltime starter in the majors—-he has absolutely no power and has to get on base more than he has previously to avoid be a scrub defensive replacement type player, ala Josh Anderson.

by cavebird on Feb 4, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I dunno

The payroll/market advantage that gives the AL East a leg up on getting premier position players doesn’t not help the pitching. He has faced Roid Rocket Roger, Pedro, Vazquez, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Pettit, Mussina, Mo Rivera, Roy Halladay… on a regular basis at many points in his career. It isn’t that there isn’t of good pitching all around the league, and every team only carries 5 pitchers, but he has regularly faced some really tough foes.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

You can put together a list like that for any division though – especially when you go back over the years.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe

though I doubt that the list would be as extensive as in a division like the AL East where the two biggest markets in baseball converge in an annual nuclear deathmatch. Just look at the AL East now post Halladay. It’s like a deathtrap with CC, AJ, Vazquez, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Lackey, Shields, and Garza. Would you prefer, say, AL West pitching that includes Kershaw, Webb, Haren, Jimenez, Lincecum, Cain, and who? I mean, sure there is quality pitching everywhere, but there is always a dearth of talent on the mound, field, and in the batter’s box in the AL East, which is why it is always the toughest division in baseball.
The NL East is probably second, but that’s another matter.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the NLE is probably better than the ALE.

Personally, I don’t consider Dice-K anywhere NEAR the same company as the other guys you mentioned. Same with AJ.

I’d break it down like this:

NLE Tier 1: Johnson, Halladay, Santana, Jurrjens, Hudson
ALE Tier 1: CC, Vazquez, Lester, Becket, Lackey

NLE Tier 2: Lowe, Hanson, Happ, Hamels, A. Sanchez, Marquis, Lannan
ALE Tier 2: AJ, Shields, Garza, Litsch, Marcum, Pettit, MIllwood, Uehara

Some of those players can arguably be in either category, but I think that the cream of the crop in each division is fairly obvious, and the NLE ranks right there with the ALE, and I think it is actually better. It is certainly deeper once you get past the big names and start looking at the hypothetical 3rd tier guys like Kawakami.

What’s more is that when you look at these names and the teams they are on, you see that payroll matters very little in regards to quality of pitching. Teams like the Marlins have some great pitchers while teams like the Red Sox spend millions and millions of dollars on guys like Dice K who just flat out are not good at pitching.

Back to the subject at hand: When you consider that there is at least an argument to be made for strength of pitching across all of baseball, regardless of payroll or division, and consider the fact that more than half of any given team’s games are played outside of their division, the argument becomes even weaker that a hitter is affected by what division they play in.

While there is certainly some advantage to playing in a division with weaker pitching, that advantage, IMHO, is not enough to validate someone as a better or worse hitter than another.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 3, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course the NL East looks better when you call those guys the best in the AL East.

The problem with your comparison is that the guys you list in Tier 2 of the AL East are nowhere near the next best in the AL East. All of the following pitchers in the AL East are likely to be better in 2010 than Uehara (who is so good the Orioles are moving him to the bullpen this year), Litsch (who had one and a half good season before succumbing to TJ surgery), Marcum (same), Pettitte (was good, now is just average) and Millwood (same):

Dice-K (just because you think he can’t pitched based on 59.3 bad innings while pitching through injury doesn’t make it so)
Bucholz
Matusz
Wade Davis
David Price
Jeff Niemann

by cavebird on Feb 4, 2010 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Bucholz? Really? I’ll take Litsch over clay any day.

Price has been a one-hit wonder so far
Dice-K has been terrible ever since coming over from Japan, not just for his injured time here.

He is the starting version of K-Rod – he may get the end results you want, but it is an ugly process to get there.

I’ll give you Wade Davis though. I forgot about him. Niemann, meh.

I’ll still take the completely made up Tier 2 guys from the NLE over your ALE guys.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 4, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Just a note on that

JA Happ, IMHO, doesn’t belong anywhere near this list.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 4, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

In June of last year, I would have agreed with you. However, that was because I was expecting him to regress to his “ceiling”.

Clearly, he proved me wrong, for at least 1 year. I think until he shows that he is NOT who he looked to be last year, we have to assume that he is.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 4, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

that's fine

but count me among those that think that he is not the pitcher he appeared to be last year, and I expect a significant regression. Think Kyle Kendrick from a couple years back, but still usable on a major league roster.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 4, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

You are just wrong on Dice-K

He was 3.9 WAR in 2007, 3.3 WAR in 2008 (18-3, 2.90 ERA). And those are his only years outside of last year’s injury plagued year. If that’s crap, your list is full of crappy pitchers. I understand you think how he does it is ugly, but getting the end result is what matters and if a pitcher does that, he isn’t terrible, no matter how badly you want him to be terrible.

By comparison, Litsch has had one 2.8 WAR season (2008) and an injury plagued 2009. Marcum had a 1.4 WAR season (2007) and a 2.0 WAR season (2008) and then missed all of 2009 with injury. Millwood has had one season over 3.0 WAR in the last three but was previously better. Pettitte I’ll give you.

by cavebird on Feb 4, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Isn’t that like measuring a pitcher based on their win totals though?

I am not very educated on WARs and the formula used to come up with them, but just look at Dice-K’s WHIP – his lowest is 1.34. That screams average.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 4, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Additionally, his BB/9 is lousy. Dice-K definitely is not as good as his reputation.

"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."

by justincredubil02 on Feb 4, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree with your analysis

But it is mostly just a disagreement in who belongs where.

I don’t think that division plays a major role in helping evaluate a player’s experience like Damon. I never would argue so. However, my point was simply that Damon played in one of the tougher divisions in baseball.

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 4, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

No you didn’t, but the implication was that JD would be a worthwhile upgrade. Clearly the OBP thing is a red herring (thank you Justin), and even you’re trying to find a place for him to play in the field where he won’t get into trouble. Look, if we didn’t have Melky, I might opt for a Damon. But that’s not where we are today… and I’d still rather have a 25 Y.O. Melky versus a 36 Y.O. JD… and that’s $2.6mill for Melky thanks to the 1/2 mill from the Yankees, BTW. I don’t think that a guy who can play ALL outfield positions can be dismissed for ‘suckiness’, either… ’specially since JD would play none of them very well.

by carpengui on Feb 3, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

That may be fair defensively

but Melky’s career .331 OBP is far less than inspiring, as is almost everything else he brings to the batter’s box. As I said, Damon could also take some time at 1b where he is probably better than Hinske and wouldn’t be so much of a defensive liability.

And I do think that Damon may be a worthwhile upgrade over the likes of Melky, and possibly even Diaz (which isn’t to say that I don’t like Diaz, dont’ get the wrong idea).

by Andy Braves Fan on Feb 3, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Your last point is the key point.

If you think he is an upgrade over Diaz, it makes sense to sign him if the price is right, because it is Diaz’s spot that he will take; they are (or should be) both considered left-field only guys. Melky’s irrelevant—-he should be the fourth OF, not the starting left fielder and Damon can’t really do the fourth OF thing with his lack of positional flexibility.

I have no idea if Damon could play first base or would be willing to learn.

by cavebird on Feb 3, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Damon has played 1B a few times in his career, FWIW.

by Lennox on Feb 4, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m starting to hope that he signs with SOMEBODY so we can put this all to rest. I can at least mail the guy a pen to use.

by carpengui on Feb 3, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

At just $2 million maybe

I have posted/blog on Damon and if only for a flat rate an notice I said a flat rate of $2 million with zero in deferred payments then maybe Damon is worth a go; but Melky has to moved if that is the case b/c we don’t need both Melky and Damon simply just doesn’t make good sense b/c by if not before the All-Star break Heyward is going to be starting in RF for us on a regular basis.

Go Braves ~

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Feb 10, 2010 9:56 PM EST reply actions  

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