Talking Chop: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Nate McLouth: Atlanta Braves 2010 Player Preview

This player preview was written by Erle Solesbee, who posts here as Rhyno18.

Nate McLouth's arrival in Atlanta on June 3, 2009 marked several things. It was the first big trade of the 2009 season. It signaled to the league that the Pirates annual fire-sale was starting early. And to Braves fans, at the time, it appeared the cavalry had arrived. While the 2009 season didn't work out quite the way we all wanted it to, this is 2010 and hope springs eternal in baseball. (Hey, I still hope every year that Ryan Klesko will attempt a comeback.)

In a preview of any player acquired via trade, I can't help but consider what the other guys involved in the trade could have done for us. I call it "Teixeira Syndrome." So let's get that out of the way first. Gorkys Hernandez is still in AA, and put up very mediocre numbers in Venezuelan winter ball. Charlie Morton had a decent 2009 season, but he was blocked in Atlanta. Baring a rash of injuries to our pitching staff that would ruin our 2010 season anyway, Charlie and his awesome '70's porn 'stache would be stuck in Gwinnett in 2010. Jeff Locke is still years away at best. None of the three guys we gave up to acquire Nate McLouth would have likely factored in to our 2010 season.

McLouth's numbers dropped off a bit from his breakout 2008 to 2009. Much of that decline can be attributed to injury. He suffered from a nagging hamstring injury in 2009 and ended up playing in only 129 games, and he was gimpy in quite a few of those 129. New information recently surfaced that Nate's eyesight had also begun to deteriorate and he hadn't realized it. That problem has hopefully been corrected with contacts. In my mind, one of the biggest factors for McLouth to have a successful 2010 season is his health. For Nate personally and the Braves as a whole to have a successful 2010, we need to see a healthy Nate in at least 140 games.

Star-divide

What can we expect from Nate offensively in 2010? Although he has the skills to hit in virtually any spot in the order, he will likely remain our leadoff hitter, and that's a good spot for him. His OBP has been above .350 in each of the last three seasons and when you combine that with the savvy base running he's known for, you have a pretty darn good table-setter for the rest of your lineup. When he gets on base he makes pitchers nervous, because they all know their catcher won't get him if he decides to go. That shouldn't be discounted in considering any player's value as a leadoff hitter. If his numbers over the last three seasons hold, he should steal 20 to 25 bases and homer 20 to 25 times. If his legs can stay healthy, he could add to those stolen base totals.

Defensively, 2009 was one of McLouth's best years according to both UZR and UZR/150. He's not a "glider" in the outfield, and has to rely on "hustle" and "grit" to get to some balls, but these days he rarely takes bad routes and seems to have come to terms with his limitations as a fielder. He has matured to the point he will take a ball on a hop and give up a single rather than dive, miss, and watch it roll to the wall. If he can be league average in center field defensively with the numbers he should put at the plate, Braves fans should be happy.

Contractually, Nate is due to earn $4.5mil in 2010, which is pretty reasonable for a player of his caliber. His salary increases to $6.5mil in 2011 and his contract has a $10.65mil team option with a $1.25mil buyout for 2012. With Schafer, Heyward and Diaz around he could potentially be a trade candidate if the Braves fall out of contention by the trade deadline, but I refuse to even think about that this early.

One big unanswered question as of this writing is what number will adorn McLouth's jersey in 2010. He wore #13 last year with Atlanta, and throughout most of his career in Pittsburgh, but he has apparently agreed to surrender that number to Billy Wagner this year.

Another great preview, this time by Erle. One day we'll get him to write a 9-part retrospective of Ryan Klesko.

0 recs  |  Comment 64 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

nate's number

Nate will wear #24 this year, giving up #13 to Billy Wags.

by bravebee on Feb 11, 2010 8:20 AM EST reply actions  

I guess that's why Schafer was wearing #2...

…at the Braves caravan. So we still don’t know what Heyward will wear, although my money is still on #12.

by cavebird on Feb 11, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Edd

Eddie Perez has 12. He’s had 12 since 1995, it just doesn’t seem likely to me that he’s gonna give that up.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 11, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Dammit.

Do the Braves know how much merchandise money they are losing by not letting people do a make your own jersey for Heyward because they won’t decide on a number for him? Does anyone know what number Heyward has worn during the caravans?

by cavebird on Feb 11, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I believe something in the 70’s like 77 or something, his spring training number from last year?

HansonManCrush

by HansonManCrush on Feb 11, 2010 11:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

The one I saw was 71 from one of the caravan pictures and I think he wore 77 last year in ST.

As far as not picking his “real” number, hey, he’s gotta make the team first. Schafer had 73 in ST last year and I’m pretty sure Hanson had 74. Just cause they expect you to be a big part of the team doesn’t mean you get a real number; until you earn it you’re just a pre-rookie with an offensive lineman’s number.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 11, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Just not 7

Im a little supersitious and big time prospects, right fielders and # 7 didnt work out too well last time around (you know who I mean I dont have to say his name.) And Melky will porbably go with 28 or 53, the two #s he wore for NYY, and I would have guessed McLouth to gow tih #33 since he likes 3, but they can all wear whatever # they feel like as long as they win ball games for us.

by Shoert on Feb 12, 2010 11:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I would also put some weight into the fact that he is 28 years old this season. It seems to me that twenty eight is the primest of the prime years. Five more years for me, I can’t wait!

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Feb 11, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions  

I’m 28 right now. Shit ain’t all it’s cracked up to be.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 11, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I concur, 28 as well would pay to be 23 again

HansonManCrush

by HansonManCrush on Feb 11, 2010 10:32 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

You know that you can buy time machines online, don’t you?

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Feb 11, 2010 12:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

But you have to assemble them yourselves. Who wants that?

by Bronn on Feb 11, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

HOLD ON

I forgot to put in the crystals…..

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Feb 11, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Feb 11, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Personally I’d go for 19, that was a good one.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 11, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I really hope that McClouth is our lead off hitter and not the player the Braves have made an offer to. I like McClouth. I think his ability would be utilized much better further down in the line-up but he can get the job done at the top.

by rcates on Feb 11, 2010 9:09 AM EST reply actions  

the only trouble with the Tex trade

was that we didn’t sign him to a 4 yr $80 deal. He was what this team needed. And the money? Hell, we turned around and immediately made the disasterous move of signing 36 year old Lowe to a $15 m 4 yr deal. Then added Kawakami for over $8, forcing the excellent Jorje Campillo to try and prove himself in the WBC. That guy was a solid #5 and cheap.

To sum up, what we needed to do was

-sign Tex
-sign (and keep) Javy V
-Let Hanson, JJ, Medlen and Campillo round out the rotation.

That would be a hell of a ballclub.

by nathan rothschild on Feb 11, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions  

My understanding was that in spring training 2008 the Braves offered a huge long-term deal to Tex and he turned it down because he wanted to test free agency. If he had signed it would have broken the Bank to the point where they wouldn’t have been able to retain Javy V anyway nor extend Chipper like they did… Besides Tex is a douche and belongs with all those other high priced roid junkies in the Bronx

HansonManCrush

by HansonManCrush on Feb 11, 2010 9:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think that this is true.

Teixeira would have signed with us, but the deal would have had to been similar to the one he signed with the Yankees, and we just don’t have the money for that.

by cavebird on Feb 11, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

miss the point?

$15 m on Lowe, $8 m on Kawakami. We did have the money.

by nathan rothschild on Feb 11, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Not to spend on one player...

…with a number of years so long that we would be hamstrung for years.

by cavebird on Feb 11, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

It would have taken at least an offer around 8 years $160 MM to land Tex, quite frankly, he’s probably not worth that much per year.

If we were going to throw a crazy contract at somebody, we’d probably have been better off throwing the Lowe/KK money at Sabathia.

by Lennox on Feb 11, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

i believe

it was something like 18mil over 5-6 years. He turned it down.

This was after all his talk of loving Atlanta and wanting to be in Atlanta. Just goes to show you what he really wanted.

by drumzalicious on Feb 11, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I like where I live just fine, but I would be gone yesterday if I stood to make 44% more money somewhere else.

by Lennox on Feb 11, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

yea well

thats the difference in some people. Im sure Chip could have made twice as much as he did in Atlanta but he stayed.

by drumzalicious on Feb 11, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Different situations.

The first time that Chipper was set to hit FA, he signed an extension with the Braves that was among the most lucrative in the history of the game at the time, and had a lot more potential value on the end with a couple of vesting option years. Was it less than he could have squeezed out of FA? Sure. But this was with the team that he’d played for his entire career, which had also been a perennial playoff team and had a great core of players that indicated years of future success. Those are things that will motivate a player to take less money.

Tex, on the other hand, had played for the Braves for half a season, and they were a team that had missed the playoffs two years straight (and their big answer to their rotation problems had been singing 42 year old Tom Glavine). None of that is the sort of thing that leads to the player being willing to take a big discount to stay.

by Lennox on Feb 12, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

So how does all that stuff about Chipper fall in line with your whole stance on Smotlz? Chipper cared about the organization and the coach and all the other stuff enough to take less money to stay, but Smoltz didn’t. Or was it because the team wasn’t as good when Smotlz had to make his choice?

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 12, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

What does it have to do with my stance on Smoltz at all?

There’s no point in actually discussing it again, but for the record my issue with the Smoltz situation is that, (based on the reports that I read covering it) it seems that the team lied about/misrepresented what they had offered him to the press, most likely in an effort to save face and make Smoltz look like the ‘bad guy’ to the fans. My issue is with the misrepresentation by the team to the press.

On this issue:
Chipper and Smoltz both took less money in the past to stay here than they could have made as free agents.

Anytime a guy is looking at a contract they’re weight a lot of things beside just the money/years. Their own comfort level, friendships, loyalty, what it would be like to relocate, the chance to win, et cetera …

But any player is going to have a point where there is a dollar amount they don’t feel right going below, just as every team is going to have a dollar amount they won’t go above.

Look at Chipper’s current deal. 3 years/$14 MM per year. That’s a lot of money (second highest paid on the team), surely Chipper could afford to play for less, and if he did, it would surely help the team in their efforts to get back to the playoffs … So why isn’t Chipper playing for half that money to help the team win?

It’s because Chipper clearly has a price point that he doesn’t want to go below for his services

With Smoltz’s last negotiation, he obviously had his low price point, and the team wasn’t willing to go over that. I don’t blame them, they made a baseball decision. That’s just the way things go.

by Lennox on Feb 12, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

to be honest

i believe chip could have actually gotten more than that on the open market. Especially to an AL team as a DH where he doesnt have to play every game he would bolster the center of any lineup

by drumzalicious on Feb 13, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

What is the difference in "cost of living"...

between ATL and NY, not that millionaires really have to worry about that much.

by Mr. Sanchez on Feb 11, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

its huge

Maybe 25% or so. I’ve considered moving both places in the last 10 years, and really looked into it. The biggest difference is obviously housing, but taxes are pretty steep in NY too, and that really factors in to athletes on multimillion dollar contracts.

Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?

by Rhyno18 on Feb 11, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

prob more than that man

I live in Boston which is barely cheaper than New York and it is a crazy amount more expensive for less quality. By comparisson from living in Atlanta most studio apartments that are 10×12 cost just as much if not more than some 3 bedroom houses.

Also the biggest factor of expensive living in Boston is the fact that to have a car you have to have MA license plates and MA car insurance which up till recently was only supplied by two companies and on average you’re looking at about 100 more a month in car insurance. After that is parking which is ridiculous.

by drumzalicious on Feb 13, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

so $15 m a year for 4 years for Lowe

and 8.6 m for Kawakami for 4 years is that much different. My entire point is that those guys do not add much value to the team, they soak up Tex’s would be contract and that Tex would (and did!) most definitely add value to the team (and to Chipper)

by nathan rothschild on Feb 11, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

...

you’re missing the point. At the end of last year we had ONE person who was an absolute lock for our rotation and that was J.J. and then we didnt know if he would repeat his rookie year success or not. We had no idea of if Hanson would be THAT good in the majors. Even if you counted Hanson we still had 3 slots open. Going by Javy’s career numbers there was no way anyone predicted him to have a cy young season he was projected to be a #3/4 at best and soak up some innings. Plus if we had Tex on the books there was no promise that we would have even traded for Javy

What you’re saying is that the team should have gone the cheap route with their rotation just to have ONE player instead of 3. We still had a hole in Left Field at the time as well.

Yea Tex would have been nice to have around but fact of the matter is we arent a team that can pay him that much and still do what we need to do.

by drumzalicious on Feb 11, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

KK doesn't cost...

8.6/4 yrs. His deal was $23m/3 years, and is set at under 7 both this year and next.

by Mr. Sanchez on Feb 11, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

not for one player

we dont have the luxury of 20% of our payroll being invested in one player

by drumzalicious on Feb 11, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I saw an interview with Teixeira and his wife, and on it they said that it was her decision to go to New York

by ronjba on Feb 11, 2010 9:58 AM EST reply actions  

Dude is whipped yo, is his wife at least really really hot?

HansonManCrush

by HansonManCrush on Feb 11, 2010 10:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

She’s no Mrs. FYF

by JKowalek on Feb 11, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

She has a nice “girl next door” look to her

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Feb 11, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

yea

because she can use that entire 160 mil to shop in Manhattan

by drumzalicious on Feb 11, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

tex trade..

if my aunt had balls she’s be my uncle…
all that is in the past, tex has been on two different teams since then, get over it.
im still not sure where nates best position in our lineup is>but nate and his health i think is a huge pice of the puxxle this year. the kid can flat out play! His grit, speed, and all the other attributes Nate has all depend on his hammy. he’s a worker and he relies on getting the most out of his body. When healthy, ol nate will be a KEY cog to this team..

by bluelg on Feb 11, 2010 9:58 AM EST reply actions  

Another excellent preview. I agree with virtually everything in it except this:

he could potentially be a trade candidate if the Braves fall out of contention by the trade deadline

Peering out into the future is hard, but to me the chances of the Braves being sellers at the trade deadline have to be viewed as very remote, if not vitually non-existent. And I also cannot believe there is any possibility of Nate being shopped or moved until the next off-season, at the very earliest.

by fandave on Feb 11, 2010 10:02 AM EST reply actions  

All it will take is a rotator-cuff surgery for JJ in April, a blown out elbow in May for Hanson, and a ruptured achilles tendon in June for McCann and we can start the trade deadline firesale.

by homerlanding on Feb 11, 2010 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Very unfunny.
Please never, ever speak – even in jest – of such calamitous horrors.

by fandave on Feb 11, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Ha, Ha. I left out broken femur in July for “The Godsend” Heyward.

by homerlanding on Feb 11, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

wow, you just ruined my day

if this happends I will lead the mob to linch you, not because I believe in superstition and that you caused it but because I will have the strong urge of linching someone and you my friend are it.

by jvvenez on Feb 11, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I should have nothing to worry about, if you can’t even spell the word correctly I highly doubt that your “lynching” would be successful.

by homerlanding on Feb 11, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd agree that he'd be a trade candidate if we're out of the race...

although let’s hope not. I also think he’s a trade candidate as soon as the FO is ready to get Schafer back in CF full time. For a salary conscious club, there’s too much money difference for what we hope is essentially the same level of production. July would be a possibility, but if we’re doing well I’d doubt we’d want to rock the boat, making next winter more likely.

by Mr. Sanchez on Feb 11, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Looking forward to seeing a healthy Nate this year. Hope to see him a little more agressive when trying to throw guys out at the plate. Saw several instances last year where he pulled up when it looked like he had a play.
    I agree with Rothschild in the fact that I miss Campillo. I thought he held his own in 2008 & would have at least found a spot in the pen in 2009. He had a pretty good change up if I remember correctly.

by adc62 on Feb 11, 2010 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

Great job Erle. Really well written preview. I’ve been a fan of Nate’s since he was in A ball and I really think he’s gonna have a great 2010. I hadn’t heard about Charlie’s porn stache and didn’t find it when I did a Google image search, but it was cool to see that one of my pictures is like the 5th one that comes up.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 11, 2010 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

He really only sported the porn ’stache for a little while back in ’08, but I remember he had it when the Braves first called him up, and now its always the image of him that comes first to my mind.

It was a really bad ‘stache. Its probably best there doesn’t appear to be any photographic evidence of it remaining.

Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?

by Rhyno18 on Feb 11, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, the fuzz stache. Yeah, I’m pretty sure some witty bitty kitten licked that off.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Feb 11, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

LMAO, yeah that’s the one

Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?

by Rhyno18 on Feb 11, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

well then i think porn stache i think of some gloriously thick and bushy

this is a porn stache

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Feb 11, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

When I typed that part of the preview up, I had it in sarcasm font, but I think it got changed to normal when gondeee edited it.

Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?

by Rhyno18 on Feb 11, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Diabeetus.

Wilford Brimley. Porn-stache extraordinaire.

"Now, here's a fellow attempting to ride a bicycle. But he's having some trouble, isn't he? And do you know why? "
~sighs~ "Why?"
"Because he's a Scot!"

by !Vive la Francoeur! on Feb 11, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

we need nate to do good

so we can trade for that RH Power Bat in Left Field.

You know that bat that we are searching for every offseason

by drumzalicious on Feb 11, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Atlanta Braves.
Start posting about the Braves »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Royconrad_fullthrottle_small
25 for 25: Braves
Small
the Braves in verse...
Killface_small
Rosterbating in late July: The heat makes it messier...
Small
Collins and Pastornicky (Bluejay Notes)

Recent FanPosts

Small
Being a Braves Fan in Minnesota
Small
Oswalt to Phillies
Seal_small
Braves Acquire Michael Noboa from Dbacks
Img_3647_small
My Braves game pictures from vs Brewers and @ Marlins.
Images_small
NAHWAL 7/29 Braves@Nationals
Braves_small
Hudson, Bullpen Dominate in 3-1 win over Natinals
Small
Braves Fan from NYC - Heading to ATL for the first time. Help out!
Images_small
NAHWAL 7/28 Braves@Nationals
Small
What's our best outfield?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

HOUSTON - JULY 24:  Pitcher Roy Oswalt #44 of the Houston Astros throws against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at Minute Maid Park on July 24 2010 in Houston Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) +13 updates

Done Deal: Roy Oswalt Traded To Phillies, Will Make Debut Friday Night In Washington

Washington Nationals' third base coach Pat Listach shakes Adam Dunn's hand who rounds third after hitting a solo home run during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Thursday, July 29, 2010, in Washington. (AP Photo/Drew Angerer)

MLB Trade Deadline: Where Does Your Team Stand As Saturday Approaches?

Los Angeles Dodgers' Brad Ausmus (12) slides into third base ahead of the tag of San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley during the fifth inning of a baseball game Thursday, July 29, 2010, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Salazar's 9th Inning Pinch-Hit Single Propels Padres To 3-2 Win Over Dodgers

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Gondeee_small gondeee

Authors

My_hair_is_a_bird-257x300_small yondaime4

Tc_small cbwilk

Dsc01731_small royhobbs

Bobby2_small mvhsbball

12475953_small pacgnosis

Benduronio_small BenDuronio