Why we don't want Damon (long and stat intensive)
by Bronn on Feb 11, 2010 2:16 AM EST
Email
PrintFirst, I'll start with the obvious. Damon is a poor defensive outfielder whose skills are declining. For the price tag-about $4 million-we're getting a guy who can only play LF, and there's reason to worry about whether he can do that effectively. Last year, UZR had him at -9 in LF. And from what I've heard from Yankee fans, he got even worse as the season progressed-by the playoffs, they were just praying for teams to not hit the ball to LF. He was never a particularly good CFer, but his skills had clearly declined during his last year with the Sox and going into his time with the Yankees, which is why he's only a LFer at this point, and he's only getting older. He's now 36 years old, and there's only season of a decent sample size to base his defense off of, and that's 2009. He logged less than 1000 LF innings total in 2008 and 2007.
It's clear that any time he spends in the field will take away from less capable defensive players. Matt Diaz has generally been above average in LF, though he's regressed a bit since he was injured in 2008. Still, he's average at worst right now, and is probably a bit above average. Melky Cabrera's OF time has more noise in the data, but on the whole, he's a slightly below average CFer and well above average corner. His defense gives him value alone, and his bat is essentially league-average.
Most people see Damon as the solution to our lead-off issues. First of all, the speed difference between McLouth and Damon is nearly inconsequential at this point. Most projections have McLouth stealing more bases than Damon, but given that this is a Bobby Cox team, we're not going to run a lot regardless, and we're probably looking at both guys having SB numbers in the low 20s. Stolen bases are overrated anyway because the risk generally cancels out the added win probability. At 75% you're breaking even-at 79%, you're over, but it's still nothing to brag about. Johnny Damon is at about 79% success on his career.
Ideally, in the leadoff spot, we'd go with some type of platoon, in order to take advantage of Matt Diaz's sick ownage of lefties last year to the tune of a .464 OBP. So I'm going to compare a Damon/Diaz platoon to a McLouth/Diaz platoon. I'm doing this because it's easy to look at the .350 from McLouth and the .360 from Damon overall and make that comparison (which, over a full season, comes down to a mere 6 more times on base total).
Damon's OBP over the last three years against RHPs is .371 (I went with recent results). McLouth's OBP against RHPs over the same period is .364. We'll assume both guys play at that level, but keep in mind that McLouth is entering his age 28 season and Damon his age 36, meaning one guy is in a prime year while the other is on the down slope. Assuming those two numbers remain consistent, we're talking about 4 more times on base, at the most, over a season. Meaning, we're not making much noticeable difference at all by adding Damon.
Now, some might argue that Damon is still a really good hitter-after all, he just hit 24 home runs last year! Not so fast. Damon benefitted extraordinarily from playing half of his games in Yankee stadium last year. How much so? Well, his hit-tracker data can give us a clue at his real power.
(Ignore the coding, skip to the table-I had a tough time getting a table formatted in)
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} table.TableStyle1 {mso-style-name:"Table Style1"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]-->
|
Speed off Bat |
Avg. True Distance |
Avg. Std. Distance |
|
|
Johnny Damon |
101.7 |
379.9 |
379.6 |
|
League Average |
103.6 |
398.8 |
395.7 |
As you can see, Damon's well below the MLB average in terms of distance on his HRs, and in terms of speed of balls coming off his bat. In fact, among guys who hit at least 10 HRs, I found only 4 guys putting less distance on their HRs than Damon: Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia (those two REALLY benefited from the Monster), Alexei Ramirez, and Adam Kennedy. Interestingly, ALL of these guys were American leaguers-for some reason, NL home run hitters average more distance overall.
So Damon really profiles more as a guy who hits maybe 9-10 HRs over a season (Turner Field plays more like a pitchers park), rather than 20, or the 17 most projections have him at. I went ahead and tweaked his CHONE projection for next year, to drop 7 HRs and bring him down to 10. Most of those become outs, but not all, so he drops a couple of OBP points, and takes a big blow to his SLG%, which makes him a slightly below average hitter-an OPS around .740. Bring that number of HRs up to 12, and he's just a tad over a .750 OPS-or right where Melky Cabrera was last year.
In short, he's worse than our current defensive options and, IMHO, he's not an upgrade over our current offensive players because his HR numbers are a bit flukey. It's a mistake to add him if I'm correct because every game he starts, he's taking time away from guys who give more value, unless the fluke HR total continues. It's a real mistake to pay something like $4 MM to make our team slightly worse.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
163 comments
|
12 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well done!
Rec’d.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 2:58 AM EST reply actions
So it's settled, then?
Baaaah, I wish it were. This will go on until there’s a statement from Wren that we want nothing to do with the guy, or until Damon signs somewhere.
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backwards in a mirror." ~George Carlin
hmm
the only thing is we aren’t really needing Damon to hit HR’s we have 20+HR potential from half our lineup (Chip, Glaus, Mac, Mclouth) it would be nice but we dont really need it.
IF we signed him i would guess he would hit for a slightly higher average, less power, and keep the same OBP so maybe something like .290/.355/.435 that would be OK with me. I would love to see that OBP jump to like .370 but i doubt it.
I really hope this formal offer is just for those fans who were saying for Wren to sign him and Wren just kinda doing the nice thing and making an offer on what we can afford. If he takes it then its whatever but if he has a 2yr deal in hand and we dont go beyond one year then im sure he will take the 2yr deal because next years FA class is a lot better than this one.
I was kind of leaning in favor of Damon, but this post is pretty convincing the other way. Well done.
I agee
I was also Pro-Damon but this post has persuaded me away from him. Nice work.
I’m more informed, but not nearly as happy as I was.
by playertobenamedlate on Feb 11, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
Love it. Between this and our friend PWHjort’s blogpost, everyone really should give it a read, I’m not sure how anyone could make an argument for the Braves signing Damon, though I would bet money some will try!
Even though I feel you made solid arguments I do have a complaint. In fairness, my complaint is not directed at you specifically it’s just that you are the latest to use UZR in your post, making this the place for my rant by default, so I’m sorry for the hijack.
I see UZR plastered all over message boards these days and, in my opinion, it’s mis-used at least 70% of the time. The fact is UZR is NOT a measure of skill. It is a measure of a players performance for that given time frame. The fact is an excellent defender could muster up a poor UZR if all the right factors fall into place and vice versa.
Let me try to explain my point with an example. Let’s take left-fielder X and estimate the following for 2010. 50% of the balls hit to left are “cans of corn” or easy outs, 20% are line drive shots directly at the player and the other 30% are just straight hits. Now let’s compare him to left-fielder Y. 50% of balls hit are “cans or corn”, 20% are line drive shots sprayed all over left field and the remaining 30% are again straight hits. Though granted this is far over-simplified, but in these two scenarios who do you think will have the better UZR score? I would guess that left-fielder X comes out on top 8 times out of 10 and it would have nothing to do with whether that player is Adam Dunn or Carl Crawford.
This is not to say that UZR and other defensive metrics shouldn’t be looked at when judging certain players, I’m not trying to trivialize the stat or stats, but the way it’s being used is so far off base from it’s intended purpose that it aggravates me. Again, sorry for the hijack.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
I do understand the UZR difficulties
But of course, the same is true of all stats. Sometimes good hitters have seasons that are wrecked by anomaly. With hitters, we’re still boggled by actually tracking true hitter ability-all we can measure are results. Once we have hit f/x, we should be able to learn a great deal more about the true talent level of both hitters and fielders.
Still, Damon was above average in LF for about 850ish innings in 2007-2008, but in 1100 innings last year, he was well below average. You need to lend more weight to recent results. It’s also nice to have anecdotal evidence that backs up what you see from the numbers. For example, we all know how Chipper struggled with fastballs last year, and you can find that the numbers support that on Fangraphs. Everything I heard about Damon last year was that he was horrible on defense and that his arm really became a big factor at times, which backs up what the UZR is telling us.
Even if you regress this and make him a -5 fielder, he’s still worse than our other options who are at least average left fielders.
Relying on Damon’s 2009 LF UZR alone is misleading. Both Melky and Swisher, good outfielders, also posted poor UZR/150s in LF (-19.2 and -11.7). Perhaps it’s small sample size, or the new park, but the better course of action would be to evaluate Damon’s defense using three years of UZR. Based on that data, Damon is probably +5 on defense for 2010.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I don’t think that’s necessarily wrong, but I’m not completely discarding his previous two years, either. I’m just lending more weight to recent results. I’m really skeptical when I look at the that +7.5 UZR in 2007 because he did that 271 innings. That was a year where he played mostly DH because the Yankees didn’t think he could contribute in the field very much.
Plus, if you just use the UZR/150 numbers for the past three years, and do a weighted mean (without adjusting to lend more weight to recent years), you get a UZR/150 of +2 for all three years. That’s all we really have on him in LF-before that he was just a really bad centerfielder.
I don’t think he’s a -9 Left fielder, but I don’t think he’s average, and certainly not above average.
I’m really skeptical when I look at the that +7.5 UZR in 2007 because he did that 271 innings. That was a year where he played mostly DH because the Yankees didn’t think he could contribute in the field very much.
I think you’re wrong about the second part of this, given that the Yankees put him in CF for over 300 IPs in 2007. His 2007 UZR/150 at both OF positions was +9. His 2008 UZR/150 at both OF positions was -1.8. And then he drops to roughly -12 UZR/150 in 2009.
Did Damon’s defense fall off a cliff in 2009? Perhaps. He’s getting older, and his arm rating clearly hurts him. But given how dodgy one year of UZR can be, even before you account for the fact that the Yankees switched stadiums between 2008 and 2009, I think it’s very tough to get a read on what Damon’s 2010 LF UZR/150 will be. Could it be -10? It could. It could also be net even or even positive (Damon played much of 2009 banged up, if fully healthy that will help him out on range).
For $2M and $2M in future years, I think it’s worth it to find out. (And this doesn’t even take into account the 2+ wins Damon gives you on offense.)
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
+1
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Feb 11, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Well he did play over half his games at DH in 2007. He totaled under 600 innings. The Yankees opted to use other outfield options every time they put him at DH, so clearly, they didn’t think he was one of the best 3 defensive options they had that year. And I think he’s one here, and he could potentially be very bad.
As you say, injuries may have hampered him, but with a 36 year old, there’s definitely no guarantee that he’s going to be any healthier, either.
Well, not to quibble, but you don’t put someone you view as a poor defensive outfielder in CF for 1 inning, much less 300. And another 275 or so at LF? Unlikely.
Furthermore, Damon only appeared in 48 games as the DH for the Yankees in 2007, as compared to 32 in LF and 48 in CF, so it seems hardly accurate to say that in 2007 “he played mostly DH because the Yankees didn’t think he could contribute in the field very much.”
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Well...
…we put Infante and Diaz in center briefly last year, so it is not like it never happens.
Perhaps that’s because DH spot wasn’t available.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Yankees also had Jason Giambi in 2007, so the DH spot wasn’t always available. He and Damon were pretty much the only two guys to DH for the Yankees that year.
Missed the joke
Was responding to cavebird on Infante/Diaz.
Regardless, it doesn’t seem accurate to say that Damon played “mostly DH” when he played 48 games at DH and 80 games in the OF.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Okay
Approximately half, if you prefer. 651 outfield innings over 143 games. In 143 games there are at least 1287 innings (more for every game that goes into extras), so we’ll call it about half.
48 v. 80. Yup, about half. ;-)
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
80 probably isn't accurate.
You are adding 32 in left plus 48 in center. However, that probably includes some double counting, because in any game where Damon at some point in the game played both positions, it would count as both a game in left and a game in center.
I completely agree
Your point was perfectly supported, sorry I didn’t make that clear. Though I believe he still has decent range and his routes are not horrible he has hands of steel and his arm, well, let’s just say i believe he could kick the ball to the infield faster.
My rant wasn’t based on anything you said in your post other than the fact you used a single UZR score. I wasn’t trying to say that you, specifically, were wrong just that the majority of the times I’ve seen it used here has been out of context.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
Damon benefitted extraordinarily from playing half of his games in Yankee stadium last year.
How do you explain the fact that Damon was +20 on offense in both 2008 and 2009?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
a .331 BABIP in 2008 didn’t hurt, compared to his career .291. It resulted in a very nice .375 OBP. Before that, he hadn’t had a +20 season since 2004.
I don’t think it’s much of a coincidence that last year, he posted a career high ISO.
Fangraphs shows a career BABIP of 310, so I’m not sure where the disconnect is. 330 is well within the standard deviation. Plus, it’s not like a 330 BABIP is batshit crazy, it isn’t like he’s up in the 400s or something. Also, HBTs new xBABIP calculator shows an xBABIP of 319 for 2008 (largely based on his LD%, it appears, although I’m still learning the math on this thing).
The career high ISO seems like a product of the new stadium, certainly, although I find it interesting that his HR/FB didn’t spike in 2009.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
The HR/FB didn't spike in 2009 for Damon...
…because the stadium dimensions were such that his normal line drive swing produced a significant number of home runs——his home runs weren’t all fly balls.
I honestly don’t know where that career BABIP came from either-I must have had some other player’s page up when I pulled that. That .331 BABIP certainly had its basis in luck, though.
Whatever it was, he didn’t have it working last year, as he posted a .306 BABIP to go with his career-high ISO. I don’t see him even approaching those HR numbers again, unless he’s really mastered the talent of hitting just-enough HRs.
From what I see his 2008 looks rather fluky and the 2009 is definitely home ball-park influenced. Between ‘07 and ’08 he saw an increase of 4% in his line drive rate coupled with a 5% decrease in groundball rate. Not to mention he had the second highest babip of his career, .331. Those numbers just don’t fit with his year over year stats.
I’m not sure how you could argue that his ‘09 wasn’t abnormal considering his home park ISO’s over the previous 2 years. He went from .113 in’07 to .151 in ‘08 to .254 in ’09. That’s 100 point jump which is far from normal. For reference, Damon had only eclipsed the .200 ISO mark one other time in his career and that was in 2006 (away). Before that he never eclipsed the .180 ISO mark.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
No argument on 2009 ISO; I wouldn’t sign Damon and expect him to repeat that. However, I do think something like his 2006/2008 lines are quite possible. Peg it conservatively as something like 285/360/480. That’s easily worth $2M, especially since half of it is deferred.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
“worth $4M, especially since half of it is deferred”
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Of course, he hasn't agreed to $4 million with half of it deferred.
And probably won’t if the rumors that the Tigers will go up to $7 million are true.
Melky Cabrera’s OF time has more noise in the data, but on the whole, he’s a slightly below average CFer and well above average corner. His defense gives him value alone, and his bat is essentially league-average.
Melky’s bat approached “league average” two times in his career. His rookie year, when he posted an OBP that he’s not come close to replicating since, and last year, when he posted a SLG over .400 for the first time in his career. And while he is getting older, which may help him add more power, he also had the advantage of playing half his games in the same ballpark that Damon did.
Over the last three years Melky’s stat line is: .267/.323/.385, that’s a .708 OPS folks.
Oh, and comparing Damon to McLouth? Yes, as a leadoff hitter, fine, but if we added Damon, both would be in the lineup somewhere.
You need to be comparing him to the player that he’d actually be taking PA from, and if you’re assuming a LF platoon with Diaz, that would most likely be Melky..
I don't think you can knock Melky's league averageness...
…in 2009, based on park factors. He was league average in adj. OPS+ (99) which accounts for park factors.
Last year, which amounts to a career year for him to this point. The fact is that his previous two years were pretty bad, calling him a league average hitter off of one season is quite questionable.
…as a 21 and 22 year old…think about what you are saying.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, a 21 and 22 year old, who had a .750 OPS season at 23 because of a jump in SLG while playing in one of the best hitters parks in the game, and is now 24.
Shockingly enough I don’t consider that proof that he should be inked in as a sure bet to provide average offensive production this season.
I mean, most guys don’t even get to the majors until they are at LEAST that age…he has 4 seasons under his belt now, and has shown some steady improvement.
Granted, his power numbers were influenced by Coors East, but his plate discipline was not. Get the plate discipline down, and you are an asset to any team, regardless of your power.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that’s the thing though, Melky got rushed up to the bigs because the Yankees needed someone who could play CF, or whatever the reason was. That’s the sort of thing that can negatively effect a player’s development.
But he hasn’t shown any serious regression…he is showing signs of improvement, so we shouldn’t be worried about whether or not his deveopment was ruined.
I mean, if he had posted trends like Frenchy, I would be in complete agreement. But, he has actually shown improvement in plate discipline while improving in other areas as well (I won’t count his power spike, due to Coors East).
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I just don’t have a problem with the projections (except CHONE, which thinks he’s going to have a breakout year).
I mean, he was 24 to start last year-is it too much to assume that he’s still improving as a hitter? He’ll only be 25 at the start of this year, so I certainly don’t expect him to revert all the way back to his 2008 form. I mean, Bill James has him at a .747 OPS, which is right about average, and Marcel has him at .735, which is just a tad below. And heck, that ridiculous .808 that CHONE is predicting certainly isn’t out of the picture if he has some sort of break out. It’s not a stretch at all to call him league average.
I’d rather go by what a player has actually done rather than play the projection game if I’m saying that a guy is average or not. I acknowledge that he’s getting older, and that he could well improve as he matures, I just don’t like saying that a guy is an average hitter until he’s actually shown himself to be an average hitter consistently.
The fact is that he’s projected as everything from .727 – to – .808, that’s a pretty wide range being put up there.
Yes, younger hitters are less reliable...
…but also more prone to improve. 35+ year old hitters are most likely to be consistent, but also more likely to decline.
A good write-up,
but I think you made a lot of biased, negative assumptions about Damon. As soon as I’m out of accounting I’ll see if I can prove my point…
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Feb 11, 2010 1:56 PM EST reply actions
melky vs. damon
should be the argument, and damon is a big upgrade over melky in many ways:
1. clubhouse presence. yeah, yeah, i know some dont believe this is a factor, but i disagree.
2. attendance. melky puts noone in the stands. i’m sure the players would like to play in a stadium that actually sells seats once again. it makes a difference.
3. melky’s splits werent exposed…he had 9 of his 13 homeruns come at home.
4. 19 of damon’s homeruns would have went out in 92% of mlb stadiums. 2 would have went out in about 50%, 3 would have went out in only 4 stadiums.
5. damon has a career 780 ops on the road.
6. cabrera still has trade value….
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Why is that the argument?...
Melky’s defense and ability to hit from both sides of the plate differentiates him from Damon. Diaz is the comp, if not Heyward. They are the ones most likely to see the bulk of playing time, and are pure corner OFs unlike Melky.
And on your points…
1-It’s not like we have a problematic clubhouse to begin with, so his “presence” doesn’t change much. It’s not like we’ve got a bunch of kids who could use a veteran to teach them, or that we don’t have a pack of vets in Chipper, Lowe, Hudson, Diaz, Wagner, Glaus, etc.
2-I’ll agree, few are gonna buy tickets just because of Cabrera, but do you honestly think people will buy tickets just to see Damon? I don’t think he helps attendance near as much as simply winning games.
3-Fair enough, he’s not a slugger.
4-I honestly just will not believe that Damon would have had at least 19 HRs here. His career numbers put him somewhere in the low to mid teens.
5-Career, as long as he’s been around and as successful as he was in his younger days, I just don’t put much stock in. FUGA had great numbers coming into last year too if you use his full career.
6-So does McLouth, Diaz, Heyward, and Schafer, but you aren’t forced to trade any of them unless you overload the OF with Damon.
...
melky bats left-handed, and in all probability (after heyward arrives) would be the lh platoon for diaz. that’s why i think it’s silly to argue otherwise. damon will take at-bats away from melky, which, imo, is a good thing.
1. i think swagger means a lot. if you look back at the 14 consecutive division titles, i dont think we had the best team, on paper, every year. it is of my opinion that the swagger of the pitching staff carried us through those years. just like every sport, confidence is contagious.
2. yes. damon will sell more tickets. winning hasnt always sold tickets in atlanta.
3. cool
4. if turner field was yankee stadium, it would have…
5. FUGA has been worth less than his contract for the last 6 years . Damon has outperformed 2 consecutive 13 million dollar contracts to the value of 16.4 and 13.6 million. We’re looking at signing him for a 3rd of that cost. in his worst year, damon was worth 6.8 million.
6. schafer only has value to a brave fan, heyward is not going to be traded, and i’m not sure diaz has much value right now. many teams (although i disagree) seem to see diaz as a one dimensional player. cabrera has value b/c there’s a rumor out there he can play an above average centerfield…and he was a YANKEE!!!!
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Try to at least get the facts right.
Melky is a switch hitter, not a left-handed hitter. He also plays all three OF positions. Obviously, Damon would take the vast majority of his AB’s away from Diaz. Damon is a left fielder, Diaz is a left-fielder, they can’t both play left field at the same time, and using Diaz in right is a bad idea.
And why would Damon sell tickets? It is not like he was the star of either the Sox or Yankees when he was there.
my facts are right...
i know melky is a switch hitter, but in all likelihood, he’s not going to be playing centerfield, and he’s not going to be platooning with heyward. diaz and melky, if heyward is in right, will be splitting time, hence the left-handed half of the platoon.
to answer your 2nd question…he just would. you and i, as baseball fans know that he’s not the star of those teams, but night in and night out, johnny damon has been in numerous highlights due to espn keeping their focus on 2 teams, both of which he has played numerous years with…
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
to the average fan...
johnny damon has appeal.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
I still disagree...
that simply having him on the roster raises attendance. It’s not like we don’t have our share of well regarded white guys already.
This. What really draws the average fan to the park is winning, not who’s on the field.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Fans are probably more interested in a super prospect than they are an aging vet. Get Heyward on the field.
since when?
you must have forgotten what it is like to be an average fan. most fans have no clue who jason heyward is. in fact, i challenge you to ask 10 average braves fans (not any that write on a blog, because we all know we’re beyond average) who jason heyward is….i bet they dont know. then, ask them if they know who johnny damon is….i bet they do know.
cb, then why did attendance drop drastically during the 14 straight division titles toward the end? winning has a lot to do with it, but personnel has just as much to do with it…
and bill shanks agrees about the attendance thing..
http://braves.scout.com/2/941702.html
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
jeff francoeur...
was a local kid. most people in the stands probably knew him, or knew of him prehand, but not because of his prospect status.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
First, I don’t care much at all about what Bill Shanks thinks about attendance.
Second, the dropoff in attendance was probably due to the fact that division titles aren’t very impressive when the team was in the World Series all the time in the 90s. After being in the 91, 92, 95, 96, and 99 World Series they didn’t make it out of the first round other than in 01. Yes, winning sells tickets, but just winning isn’t enough when you’ve already won a lot. I’d guess that if the Braves had continued to show up in the World Series every year through the end of the streak more fans would have shown up.
And the team had plenty of big name players through the end of the streak, when attendance was declining, so that seems to throw a hole in your name value theory.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Seriously. JD Drew, Derek Lowe, Gary Sheffield, not to mention the guys already on the roster – Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, Chipper, Javy Lopez, Furcal – all legit big names in baseball, all on one team.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
i'll give you gary sheffield...
maddux, smoltz, glavine, chipper, lopez, furcal all have on thing in common: years with the braves…years for the average fan to become tired of them.
jd drew….please. he was not a legit big baseball name when he came to atlanta.
i will give you gary sheffield.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
first off no one cares if u give Gary, he was a legit big baseball name..and there was plenty of buzz surrounding JD Drew, considering he was a college legend and the fact he had a pretty public bout when he was drafted and was still very good player before he came to ATL, he was just underrated, because he was so despised by people for his attitude
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I would think J.D. Drew would be an apt comparison.
Damon certainly isn’t a star the magnatude of Sheffield, but I would approximate that he is a star the magnatude of Drew.
JD Drew...
when he came to Atlanta was an injury proned player who had clubhouse issues. he was not a star and had his career year in atlanta. noone cared about his “hype” as a college athlete from 8 years previous.
imo, jd drew, at this point in his career, still does not have the star magnitude of johnny damon, but he is a much bigger name now than he was in his atlanta years.
as much as i hate it, when a player goes through boston or nyy, their star power automatically increases (to the average fan) because they get free advertisement almost every night on espn.
most people that go to the games do not sit and watch each and every pitch like we do. they get their information from espn. johnny damon has 8 years of high profile baseball under his belt, and to the average fan, has appeal.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
I’m not buying it. I’ll grant you, a few fans might come out to watch Johnny Damon, but is it really enough to even talk about? We’re not talking about some superstar player here, we’re talking about a role player who just happened to play in NY and Boston. Sure, that has appeal to morons regular fans, but enough to even make measurable jump in attendance? I doubt it.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
JD Drew became a star because of his year in Atlanta, not because Boston signed him the next season.
He was a big name prior to coming to Atlanta, whether you like it or not.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
JD Drew was as much of a star when he came to Atlanta...
…as Johnny Damon is now. Neither are Sheffield level stars. Hell, Damon wasn’t even one of the top five or six players on his team last year (A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, Cano, Sabathia, Rivera, etc.). I agree that Drew was not a huge star when he came to Atlanta, but Damon isn’t that big a star now.
Damon is the rare kind of star player
The kind that nobody wants.
Thank about this-how many butts do you think Griffey Jr. puts in seats last year? Probably not a lot, and his name is HUGE compared to Johnny frickin’ Damon.
ESPECIALLY in Seattle. They all but admitted that is why they brought him back.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
well...
i understand that i might be disgreed with, but i stand by my thought: johnny damon would increase attendance. with his years in boston and new york, he’s probably one of the 10-15 most popular mlb players in the game right now…to the average fan, even though he was probably the 4th-5th most popular yankee.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Top 15? Really?
I probably can’t rank them, but I can certainly name 15-30 more popular players.
Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, A-Rod, David Wright, Chipper Jones, Tim Lincecum, Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero, Roy Halladay, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Jonathon Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Joe Mauer, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Jason Bay, Ichiro, Matt Holliday.
That’s just the list of guys I’m certain you could put above Damon. Arguably, you could add Evan Longoria, Felix Hernandez, Shane Victorino, Zack Greinke, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, K-Rod, Hanley Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada, Carlos Lee, Todd Helton, Grady Sizemore, Bobby Abreu, Justin Upton, Dan Haren, Alfonso Soriano, Brian McCann.
Can you even argue that Damon is a top 15 in popularity from that group?
I even left out
Guys like Hideki Matsui, Kaz Matsui, and Daisuke, who have great appeal in the Japanese market and who probably do have actual effects on attendance, but they’re not huge commodities in the US market.
yeah...
and you’re not thinking like an average fan (or a woman) when you throw anybody from a small market team on that list.
espn has made johnny damon marketable. so, to answer your question….yes, i can argue it.
i challenge you to ask 20 people whom you consider lukewarm baseball fans a “who’s who list”, or maybe not even a list, but a picture. johnny damon is a recognizable name and face in baseball, more than lance berkman, joe mauer, jason bay, matt holliday, or josh hamilton.
this is a silly argument…
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Seriously....
…if you asked 20 people who might consider buying tickets to Braves games, they might not know Heyward, but they certainly won’t know Damon. He just isn’t that big of a star. I really don’t know why anyone thinks he is. He is a minor star, that is all. Those 20 fans you speak of won’t know Damon either.
you’re not thinking like an average fan (or a woman)
What the hell does this statement mean? Are women excluded from being average fans, thus necessitating mentioning them separately?
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
I think he's meaning...
women will be attracted to Damon, and therefore spend good money just to see him stand in left in tight pants.
yes...
it was a sexist comment. JESUS CHRIST, PEOPLE! Javy Lopez was a favorite among all the women that i know and it wasnt because of his catching abilities. johnny damon is a good looking man.
anyway, i understand that you guys disagree with me. it’s fine. many people agree with me, obviously, more disagree.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
um…what world are you living in?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 13, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
justin...
you have comtributed nothing to this argument except your snarky disagreements and common misspellings. you are a classic bandwagoner.
bronn and co., point taken, but not agreed with.
one more to my point…google different major leaguers and see who’s has more hits. granted, johnny damon has been in a lot of trade rumors lately, but not enough to have 5 million+ hits compared to 400,000 hits for chipper.
in fact, the only person on that list that has more hits than johnny damon is a-rod, and he has a whopping 11 million.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
I have misspellings? Bandwagoner???
Find ONE word that I have misspelled in this thread. I can find at least 10 punctuation errors in just one of your posts.
And please, tell me how I am in the slightest being a BANDWAGONER???
You really need to just learn to accept that you are wrong on your position. Whenever you stoop to making ad hominem posts, you have already lost. Just move on.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 13, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
garry...dilusional...
spell check doesnt pick up everything….
as you can tell, my posts lack capitalization, which shows i dont have to use spell check incredubil justin.
and yes, you are a bandwagoner, which rarely i ever see you actually make a point. you just feed off of others. even the point you tried to make earlier you contradicted yourself:
“JD Drew became a star because of his year in Atlanta, not because Boston signed him the next season.
He was a big name prior to coming to Atlanta, whether you like it or not."
how is that even possible? he was a big star before he came to atlanta, and yet he also became a big star in atlanta.
also, if you didnt catch it, i admitted that i lost an argument earlier. i’m not going to say i’m wrong on an argument that i dont think i’m actually wrong in.
it’s a freakin’ opinion and cant be wrong…‘til it’s proven wrong. can you “prove” it wrong? no…so you can argue your point, i can argue mine. if you can do it w/o your “hahahahas”, or you “um….what world do you live in”, or your “he obviously doesnt get to other parks”, then i can be civil as well. but if you make comments to intentionally get under people’s skin (as to which you’ve done to me on more than one occasion), you should be called out for what you are: a people pleasing bandwagoner. come up with your own material.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
nice.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 14, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Ryan C, an opinion can be wrong.
You have your terminology mixed up. An opinion cannot be proven false; there is plenty of case law on this point, mostly defamation cases. However, “wrong” is a completely different word than “false”. Wrong is a subjective word—-I can think your opinion is wrong and vis-versa. Opinions cannot be proven false by nature, but they can be considered right and wrong.
...
what word am i looking for? theory? should i replace opinion with theory?
i thought the word “think” made that sentence subjective, not “wrong”, but i’m probably mistaken. i teach 4th grade english and i should know this, but i dont.
take the following sentence: “i think johnny damon will hit leadoff for atlanta this year”. that is my opinion. if he does hit leadoff then i’m wrong, so that disproves my opinion, correct?
all sarcasm aside, i need an english lesson….educate me.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
does*n't* (paragraph 3)
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Let me try to explain further.
Your hypothetical about Damon hitting leadoff is a prediction more than an opinion. Predictions can prove to be false or true, and are statements of fact about the future. Yes, it can be phrased as an opinion, but the heart of the statement is an attempt to correctly predict the future, making it subject to being proven false or true. The same can be true of statements of current or past fact phrased as an opinion—-I could state “I think Jeff Franceour had an OBP over .350 in 2009.” Although I styled it as an opinion, it is basically a statement of fact, and can be proven true or false (in this case false).
If you said something like, “Johnny Damon is attractive” that is a pure opinion and cannot be proven false or true. That doesn’t mean that people can’t think that it is “wrong.” Change the opinion to “Zane Smith is attractive” and the statement can’t be proven false, but wow, it is wrong, lol.
The difference is that “false” and “wrong” while sometimes synonymous, are not always synonymous. Wrong can mean false, but it can also mean injurious, immoral, unjust, unethical, etc. People who disagree with your opinion will inherently think your opinion is wrong; that does not mean that your opinion is, or can ever be proven, false.
You just named 5 people who are all definitely bigger stars than Damon…now just 10 more and you have proven your own point wrong.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 13, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Hey, credit where credit's due
It was in response to to my naming about 28 more popular guys, then another 30-something who are probably more popular as well.
:-)
hahaha. I think it is hilarious that he thinks Damon is more popular than Hamilton – he obviously doesn’t go to any other baesball parks.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 13, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Seriously, Hamilton was in Reader’s Digest. My grandma knows who he is and the last player she was aware of was that nice George fellow who played for the Yankees.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
hahahaha!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 13, 2010 2:14 AM EST up reply actions
I think Melky will play some in center...
…spelling McLouth against tough lefties and giving him a day off every couple of weeks if McLouth is nursing a minor injury or something. He will also spell Diaz in left often enough against righties. Still, I think we plan to give Diaz more than half the starts in left—he’s earned them. Hence, Damon will be replacing Diaz most often—-or would if we signed him. Given the recent rumored offers, we are likely to be way out of that bidding.
1. Our clubhouse is not the reason we have not reached the playoffs. Hell, we had Otis Nixon, Garry Sheffield, Kevin Millwood and others who are not known for their attitudes on our past playoff teams.
2. Damon will not increase attendance. If you think so, you are dilusional. Any noticeable spike in attendance will be due to Heyward and Hanson, Bobby’s last year, and potentially Chipper’s last season.
3. Agree. Melky is not a power hitter. Nobody ever said he was. BTW, neither is Damon.
4. Did you read the post? He proves Damon’s power is a myth.
5. Nice. What has he done lately?
6. Awesome. So when the OF consists of Schafer, Nate, Heyward, Diaz, Hinske and Infante, we can trade Melky. No need for Damon.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Since when did Millwood have an attitude?
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Not so much an attitude like the other guys I mentioned. I have just heard (or thought I have heard) that he wasn’t the best clubhouse guy – I could be WAY off on that though…I thought I had heard it somewhere here in Texas though.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know, most guys I’ve talked with love Millwood. I think the main reason the O’s picked him up is to be a clubhouse leader.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Then I guess I am very wrong on that one. I apologize and hope Kevin doesn’t sue me for slander and defamation.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
Way too laid back for that. He’s just say screw it and invite you fishing.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
What’s with Braves products and Outdoor Sports? I bet there are some serious ties to Bass Pro Shop and the Braves payroll.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
They get a bunch of hicks from the south to play for them. It’s funny, the first time I met Blaine Boyer and Anthony Lerew when they were playing for Danville on the road in Burlington I told them I lived down in Charlotte and they mentioned the (at the time) new Bass Pro Shop down there. I told them I actually worked at the mall it was in and gave them good directions (it was an hour and a half away from Burlington). The next day, which was a day off for them, they come into the music store I was working at with a bunch of Bass Pro bags and say what’s up and thank me.
And I don’t know if you’ve ever seen them but Charlie O’Brien and Chipper Jones both have hunting TV shows.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
HAHAHA! Dude, you have some seriously great baseball stories!
I haven’t seen Chipper’s show, but I have heard about it…doesn’t it come on early Saturday morning?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
justin...
i’m tired of you…you’re freakin’ juvenile.
how many times can you ask me if i have “read a post”? . no…i cant fucking read. he does not prove damon’s power is a myth. i challenge you to go back and do some research on johnny damon’s home runs before you ask me again if i have “read the post”.
and to answer your #5….those 2 years were 2008 and 2009, so that is what he’s “done lately”.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
and..
you can disagree with someone without insuting them. it is possible.
oh, and the #1 was not about the presence of “clubhouse cancers”. did you read my post?
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
I am pretty sure that 99% of the time, I don’t insult anyone when debating with them. In fact, the only insults being flung around are from your keyboard.
I am confused – you said “clubhouse presence”…I mean, what else can you be talking about?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
How does he not prove it’s a myth. It’s pretty clear that if he was playing in most any other park than the Yankees’ he wouldn’t have hit all those homers. So yeah, kind of a myth.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
this...
is why. 19 of damon’s 24 homeruns would have went out almost anywhere. 4 are probably products of yankees stadium. 1 is questionable.
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_4120&type=hitter
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
that doesnt take into affect the wind tunnel advantage a shot to RF has in Yankee Stadium….which is the main reason for the power increase in NY last year, not the short porch, they’ve always had a short porch in RF
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
So I guess he just decided to hit all but 7 HRs at home, just because he didn’t want to hit HRs on the road? And 2 of his 7 were in Fenway…I mean, the guy hit all but 5 of his HRs in stadiums notorious for RF HRs.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
i'm sure...
he probably woke up and decided to hit homeruns in short stadiums…yes.
the distance on his homeruns were legit on all but 5.
and my first insult to you came when i called you juvenile.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
…which has been the first and only insult thrown so far….
The post showed that Damon’s average distance is about 20 feet less than the league average…I really can’t believe that someone is trying to defend Damon as a legit HR threat…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
and i never said he was a legit HR threat
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Well, saying that his homers are legit is kind of the same thing.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
justin...
you’re ridiculous. saying 19 of his 24 homeruns were legit is not saying he’s a HR threat, unless YOU think someone that hits 19 homeruns is a HR threat. personally, i dont.
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Eliminating all other park factors and going by strictly distance, it appears that 8 to 10 are actually products of Yankee stadium. At least 8 of them certainly wouldn’t have carried out of Turner Field and two others I have questions on.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
Here's a better view
I added overlays of the field dimensions of Turner vs. Yankee Stadium.
Forgive the crudeness, but as you can see a BUNCH of those home-runs fail to leave the park in Atlanta.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
i count 17...
which is not much off from my 19…i was off 2
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Agreed
My 8 to 10 was a little high but again, this is assuming both Yankee stadium and Turner Field play the same. Those three to five that are borderline might not have made it out of the Ted but that’s over my head to prove so I’ll leave it as a question mark.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
Can you tell me if I am reading this correctly?
I see roughly 9 HRs that would not have gone out of Turner. Is that about right?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Anywhere from 9 to about 11 HRs. How high is that outfield wall in right in Turner? I know it’s 10 feet in New Yankee stadium, so some of Damon’s line-drive HRs wouldn’t have carried over the old Yankee Stadium wall, but I don’t know if the Turner wall is higher.
Good point. I didn’t even consider that one.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Be careful when interpreting these. For one, I’m not confident the measurements are correct. For two, they don’t track long flys. Wind and elevation play a role, and a cloud of other variables make doing this nothing more than a rough sketch of something, it’s not a powerful analytical tool or anything.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
Well, first off, I don’t care.
Second, I believe this may be the first time that I have ever asked you if you have read a post.
Third, I am not sure I understand you response to my response to your #5. You said his CAREER OPS was .780 on the road. What was it in 2008/2009? I mean, there is a difference.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
.827&.795
My opinion cant be wrong. It's my opinion. Those who don't like it can piss up a rope.
Fair enough. It is worth noting though that in 2009, his home OPS was .915. I think this pretty much proves his power was influenced by NYS.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Im not saying he will sell a lot more tickets, but besides chipper and mccan, would probably become the next most popular jersey.
After Hanson and Heyward, too. And probably Escobar. And maybe Tim Hudson.
So, maybe he could come here and have the 7th best selling jersey.
Ok, out of accounting...
First, you’re saying Damon is a bad fielder based on last year’s poor UZR. I think it’s unfair to say that Damon is horrible defensively after last year, because like Yakker pointed out above, he had a combined +9 UZR/150 in ‘07 and a -1.8 in ’08 for all of his outfield positions. Not to mention, he was pretty banged up last year, and that could’ve easily contributed to his rough defense last year. I think to be fair, you have to take his UZR/150 number from the last three years to get an accurate depiction of the defender he really is, which is average to slightly below average.
Second, you take Damon’s career SB%, which is fine, but I think to be fair you should see what kind of % he’s put up in recent years, since he will have matured as a base stealer. In the past 5 years, he’s put up a great 84% success rate.
Lastly, I think it’s very unfair and inaccurate to say that Damon would only put up 9-10 home runs. I think it would be more fair to take the number of home runs he hit in away games for a season and multiply it by 2. Since he became a Yankee, he’s averaged 8.75 home runs in a away games a season. Multiply that by two, and you get 17 home runs.
I understand you don’t want Damon, I personally don’t want him unless we platoon him with Diaz, but at least try to be fair in evaluating his worth.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Feb 11, 2010 3:17 PM EST reply actions
I've addressed that UZR discussion above
So regarding SB%-I guess I just don’t put much stock in stolen base totals. They don’t greatly affect the outcomes of games, and Bobby Cox isn’t going to let him run wild at any rate.
As for home/away splits, there’s much better ways to evaluate a player than to just look at the away half. Almost every player in the league puts up better numbers in their home parks. I simply used his hit-factor data to put him comparative context, and perhaps I did so inaccurately. It’s possible that he’s mastered the talent of hitting balls just over the fence, but almost every decent HR hitter in the league averages greater distances. I believe there were 186 hitters who hit at least 10 HRs last year, and he ranked 182nd in average distance. And two of those guys below him are right handed batters in Fenway.
I might be biased, but I’m not inventing figures.
Interesting post.
You make some good points, but I still want Damon, as long as it’s for the right price. He would easily be our best option for the leadoff spot. McLouth has too much power to lead off; he should hit in the middle of the order. And Melky just kind of sucks. But if we don’t sign Damon, I think Melky is the best option to lead off.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
For the most part I agree
However I have two problems. One of them being UZR, which was already discussed. The second is that in comparing McLouth and Damon, you only use RH splits. I know you talked about a platoon with Diaz, but I think it’s a little hard to believe Bobby would put Diaz in the leadoff spot. And comparing LH splits, Damon has a huge advantage.
The Jordan Schafer Fan Club.
As an aside
I wanted to title this fanpost “The Myth of the Curse of the Rumor of the Offer Made to Johnny Damon”
i usually don’t rec posts, like i didnt here, not because i don’t think they’re worthy, just bc im lazy…but had you done that you would have received a rec from me…now all you get is a slight nod of appreciation for your hard work
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Dude, you could have rec’d the post in 1/10 of the time it took to type all of that out. Your laziness is counter-productive.
Plus, I think you spelled everything right, so you probably spellchecked the post, which takes even more effort..
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
but i wouldnt have needed to scroll up…and i didnt spellcheck so blwoor oti out us ass
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
hahaha.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 11, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
I only rec posts when people ask for them because of all the hard work they’ve done.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Feb 12, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know man, I hate it when people take the time to look at more than just he player’s name and supposed reputation and actually try to make an intelligent examination of his performance and likely value. What a bore.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
ur in charge cant u get this thoughtful discussion off the boards…we need more complaining about buses and walking far and trade/signees that have about as much chance as me becoming an NFL offensive lineman (im 6 ft 165 lbs)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
JoJo Reyes and Medlen for A-Gon. Make it happen, FW!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Add Freddie and they might bite.
That’s gives ‘em 3 ML-ready players at the ML minimum. And besides, AGon would kinda tie up 1B for … well, as long as he wants it. I know it’s off topic (and semi-serious, but you brought it up!), but my only concern with those players is that we’d be counting on almost every other current top prospect being a ‘hit’ within 2-3 years. But yeah – adding AGon to this team would make for an instant world series contender.
I am not sure if you missed the joke or not…lol.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 12, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I got it....
… that was the “semi-serious” bit… but I am about AGon as DOB is to JD, so I opted to not let even a frivolous opportunity go by!
If the Padres would take that small and offer for AGonz...
…AGonz would be in Boston, Youk would be playing third for the Sox, and Beltre would have signed elsewhere.
Nicely done
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 3:41 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Very interesting article on fangraphs today.
Basically stating that Damon doesn’t make sense for us. It is based on the CHONE projections which are very favorable to Melky (basically due to his age, CHONE thinks Melky will break out), but in the comments there is an interesting comment noting that even if you chop down Melky’s projection, the possible Melky/Diaz platoon in left would likely be more or less just as good as Damon. And that’s the rub—-Damon is a fine player, but if he isn’t better than what we already have, what’s the point of signing him?
I saw that. It made some good points. There was also an article done yesterday by Dave Cameron over at fangraphs talking about some underrated hitters and one of them he talked about was Melky Cabrera. He says we’ll probably be pleasantly surprised with him. Similar to CHONE, he bases this on age-relative performance and the probability that he’ll improve some. It’s probably a little optimistic but he’ll probably end up somewhere between that and the overly pessimistic view being distributed here at TC.
Most people are forgetting that Melky is only 24 years old – and has 4 years of MLB experience under his belt…in probably the most harsh environment for a MLB player.
The fact that he performed to league average standards in this situation as a kid should be making us excited, not worried and looking for a replacement.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 16, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
