Jacoby Ellsbury: The Missing Piece
by AtlSlugger on Dec 5, 2010 8:18 AM EST
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PrintMultiple sources have said that with Adrian Gonzalez, Boston will be going after Werth or Crawford, because now they will pull out on Beltre. If this happens, that will leave Jacoby Ellsbury very expendable! And after the deal for A-Gon, they should be looking to replenish their farm system. And the Braves would be the perfect match to help them accomplish this. A deal centered around Arodys Vizcaino and/or Christian Bethancourt should be enough to land the coveted Ellsbury.
That would leave the 2011 Opening Day lineup looking somewhat like this:
Ellsbury CF
Prado LF
Jones 3B
McCann C
Uggla 2B
Heyward RF
Gonzalez SS
Freeman 1B
I really believe this isn’t living with a pie-in-the-sky idea of the typical over-the-top notions that the Braves will land either Upton brother, Gardner, Kemp, Rasmus, etc. This Ellsbury deal could realistically happen.
A speedster at the top of the order in a non-Cox era could be something Atlanta fans haven’t seen in awhile. He’s going into the first year of being arb. eligibility, so he should fit into the Braves’ budget. Those two factors make this a transaction the Frank Wren MUST consider.
As for the package Boston's receiving: Vizcaino, he looks to be a little too injury-prone at a very young age. That scares me. But at the same time, the kid has loads of talent. And I'm sure Boston would love to have a former Yankee top pitching prospect with the opportunity and potential to really stick it to them. And as for Bethancourt, obviously the Red Sox don’t have a long-term solution at catcher since the departure of Victor Martinez. And this would give them a very talented one. They obviously like Atlanta catching prospects (Saltalamacchia).
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I would like that but its not going to happen because we dont have the money and we dont want to give up that much.I could see Wren signing someone like Tony Gwynn Jr though and we still need a backup SS
Money is NOT an issue with Jacoby! First year of arbitration, while coming off an injury-plagued season. It would probably be around the same as someone like Gwynn Jr. would cost.
What it would cost in prospects hough is pretty big
They also have Mike Cameron who could be made available,I wouldnt be upset with having him
no one that if Boston traded him they wouldn’t eat part of that contract..
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Boston would eat most of it...
…if they wanted to move Cameron.
thats what i was trying to say but failed miserably to accomplish apparently.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
You're a failure...
you should feel bad because you are bad, and you smell bad too.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Is that what that is?
I kept blaming my cats. I guess I’ll have to apologize to them…
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Dec 5, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
You'd probably fail at that too...
like the really fat girl from Heathers.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
No.
Arbitration is A or B. Team chooses a figure, player chooses a figure, arbitration decides which salary figure is appropriate.
If the Braves even attempted to put down a Tony Gwynn Jr.-comparable arb figure, the moderator would laugh and grant Ellsbury his arb figure.
Dude will make some pretty good money in arbitration, probably at least $3-5MM. Corey Hart put up a total of 6.5 WAR in four years and was awarded $4.8MM last season. Ellsbury has 7.7 WAR in three seasons.
You’re way off.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Also Backup LF
We need a backup LF better than Joe Mather,I would like to see us sign someone with some pop who can atleast fill in when Prado is at 3rd
If we get a CF...
…McLouth would be the fourth OF and play left when Chipper is down. We need an OF of some type; we would need two, but I assume that Young takes one of those spots. Hence we need one more outfielder. Ellsbury would cost too much in prospects for his worth, but we need someone.
so you post this as a rosterbation comment and then as a fanpost with a poll. excellent plan. if only everyone would do that, we could have a couple of hundred high quality fanposts each and every day.
Good job slugger
this is one of the best fan posts I’ve seen. It is very realistic and logical. And that line up….. wow it is pretty powerful IF they stay healthy. Hope it or something like it comes to fruition.
Bowman said on the Braves homesite that FW would do a deal for a young outfielder if someone blew them away. And the BOSOX are a team who could do this and not feel jobbed. Your post gets a rec from me.
"I do whatever they want me to do," he said. "I’ll punt it if that’s what they want." Julio Jones after rushing for a 56 yd TD vs Miss. St.
Personally, I loved the line...
about how this isn’t general, speculation for rosterbation that’s unrealistic, my proposal is actually possible!
Maybe they’ll move Ellsbury, but for me, I think the more realistic chance is they move Cameron along with $5 or 6m. And for that, I’d give Vizcaino, or another prospect package that is somewhat minimal (depending on Vizcaino’s elbow, I value him a lot lower than others. Speaking of, does anyone know if he had a more severe injury after coming back and getting pulled late in the year?).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
even if you value Vizcaino is lower on your personal list that seems like a lot to give up for Cameron…a guy who is coming off a significant abdominal injury or whatever the hell it was.
I dont know what would be appropriate, they did just lose a couple players maybe they are looking for somone similar to replace them, i.e. a new 1B prospect or a speedster OF…i dont know who that would be but just a thought.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I guess I'm just looking at Lowell after they signed Beltre...
and he was out there with cash covering all but $500,000 I think it was, for Max Ramirez, a good near-ready C prospect. Not special, but not shabby either. Plus, while Cameron is coming off significant injury, if Vizcaino is also coming back from a significant injury (I haven’t seen anything since that last appearance where he reinjured his elbow) that kind of evens out potential medical issues.
So if they send Cameron, plus cash to cover all but a minimum salary, or even $1-2m, that’s a damn good price for a player like Cameron if healthy. Vizcaino, considering he’s in A ball, and still has a good bit to work on before being an effective major leaguer, isn’t a bad price. We sent a similar arm in Lopez, plus two others, for a couple months of Lee, so a full season of Cameron should be worth as much, right?
I don’t know what would be appropriate either, and obviously am uneducated on Vizcaino’s current condition. But I think if Boston were looking to dump Cameron ala Lowell, we’d be a perfect fit.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Sanchez has been a near ready C prospect for a while now…from what I have read, he can’t really play defense at C and his bat hasnt developed the same way everyone thought it would, not that its bad just that he hasnt progressed as such…his upside is a bit limited at this point, from my opinion.
Whereas, strictly based on age, Vizcaino has a ton of upside even if that needs to be tempered because of arm issues.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I agree with Sanchez here.
Cameron wouldn’t be bad at that price. And Vizcaino scares the crap out of me due to the elbow issue that didn’t get surgically repaired.
I’ve been thinking about this for some time now.We have our power bat and to put this guy in the leadoff spot would only improve the ball club.The only negative I can see from this deal and it’s not all that major is sometimes when batters switch leagues they seem to struggle with seeing pitchers for the first time.Some hitters seem to do just fine though so like I said it’s not all that major.Pitchers on the other hand seem to do just the opposite.Anyway if Wren can pry this guy loose from the RedSox especially for that deal mention by the other poster on here I say do it ASAP.He doesn’t have to have a batter scarifice himself in order to steal a base he’s a basestealing machine.We need that especially in the post season where playing small ball wins almost every game.
please use the rosterbation thread
Its there for a reason. Thanks.
by drumzalicious on Dec 5, 2010 10:55 AM EST via mobile reply actions
i disagree
when you are fleshing something out this fully, it would be a rediculous part of a rosterbation thread… this is what the fan posts are for… they are supposed to be extended, and they are for when you want something specific considered by a lot of readers..
its not like the fan posts are flooded, and its not like the rosterbation threads arent ovetrstuffed
good post
Its not like the fan posts are flooded
You obviously weren’t a TC regular before we started the rosterbation threads…
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
i for sure was
and i get the value of keeping it on the rosterbation threads.. but it is too limited
you cant make a serious and extended argument and actually expect more than 1 person to comment on it.. its a waste.. its important to use both tools for rosterbation in my opinion
You have no character limit on your post and why does it matter hoe many people reply? Do you get an award?
by drumzalicious on Dec 5, 2010 2:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
because a post this long in a thread
is off putting.. and because it is in a thread, it doesnt demand central attention..
and its not a matter of how many people reply, thats just a measurement of how much attention pay to it.. and if u put that much effort and thought into it.. and it is good and you knwo it.. like this post i believe.. then it shouldnt be criticized for going on a fanpost
Why does it demand central attention??
All of us have ideas, and they should all count equally, on face value. The content will ultimately indicate what is good and what isn’t, but we should all have an equal say in our posts’ prominence.
This guy has all of 7 comments, and yet at this time his random rosterbation is getting more attention than several people who have a long track record of posting material that is much better than this, in its proper place, the rosterbation threads.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
maybe it would be worht trying
to have a rosterbation thread specifically for the OF
You're right
We should have nine rosterbation threads to cover the whole team. That wouldnt spam the site at all.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Bigger picture. EVERYONE has these dream scenarios and trades they like to happen with players that are available. Our entire Fanpost section would be full of threads.
“Jacoby Ellisbury the Answer”
“Brett Gardner what the Braves really need”
“Why take a chance with Freeman, lets get AGonz”
The rosterbation thread keeps it all organized and prevents this website from getting messy. Not to mention Ellisbury is already being talked about in the rosterbation thread.
by drumzalicious on Dec 5, 2010 1:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And almost all of them would have the line...
the rest of those ideas are fantasy, mine is actually realistic. It could happen!
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
rec'd
green please
"IN THE AIR LEFT FIELD- THAT'LL DO IT!... AND IT KEEPS ON GOING; THAT IS A HOMERUN!"
"Placido Polanco? That guy’s a pussy" -Joe Simpson
umm...really?
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
He would be a good piece...
I think a better place to start would be Stephen Marek & Corey Harrilchak for Ellsbury. I don’t think giving up our only catching prospect is the answer here, that being said I think we have a better chance at getting Mike Cameron and a lot of Cash than Ellsbury and they would likely not want all that much in return. I’d rather have Ellsbury also though.
Unbelievable
“coveted Ellsbury” – I LOL’d.
There is so much wrong with this. First, we can be fairly sure that Nate Mc will not be as bad as he was last year. So guessing that he will produce much closer to his career norms is a safe assumption. We CANNOT assume that Ellsubury will ever be any better than his career norms.
So let’s look at these two for a minute:
Nate Mc – .252 / .337 / .438 / .775 – 83/13 SB/CS ratio
Ellsbury – .291 / .344 / .405 / .749 – 136/24 SB/CS ratio
Hmmm. Not a big enough difference to make me want to give up one or two highly thought of prospects. In fact, when you consider that Nate’s numbers are weighed down by last year it’s even closer than this shows.
So hopefully this will allow us to “put to rest” the idiotic idea that Ellsbury is a good idea for the 2011 Braves. He is not a “good” idea, he is not an upgrade over what we have and he almost certainly is not worth the prospects you mentioned! Most of all this absolutely did not warrant it’s own thread!!!
by scstrato on Dec 5, 2010 12:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
you are out of your mind
how in the whole wide world can you say that a 290 BA (which is very reasonable to expect from him espescially comming from the NL east) and 70 stolen bases is not an upgrade over a 255 average and 20 stolen bases.
and it isnt just a direct upgrade in player, it is a huuuuge upgrade in lineup! that cannot be left out!
and beyond lineup, he is an upgrade in gameplay strategy. if we had to get nate to second, we would bunt him over a majority of the time, wasting an out in what would be an important situation.. we would not do this with Ellisbury.
ellisbury will get to second 100 times a season without an out.. in ’09 it was 97
Mclouth, in his best season, did it 72 times, and for the last couple seasons it looks like 50 is a good number.
how are you telling me that getting a guy on second base without an out literally twice as often—100 times is not an upgrade? espescially when this guy can bat at the top of the order and mclouth will bat 8th
again i repeat, you are out of your mind
its worth giving up anyone but our major prospects
to get ellisbury.. and i mean anyone but teheran basically
Sorry to have pinched your nerve
but I have to disagree with which one of us is out of our minds.
First off, using batting average and stolen bases to compare the two is silly, especially when neither stat has any real significance – though I will admit I too would like to have speed at the top of our lineup. The difference is I’m not willing to give up anything of significance to get it if the player is sub-standard in the categories that a lead-off hitter should have.
For example, what good does it do to have your leadoff guy get to 2B 100 times if he is going to make an out in 420+ PA’s every year? I will also add that your assumption of adding 2B’s to stolen bases is faulty in a comparison if you are also not adding in 3B’s and HR’s. In which case McLouth is a lot better than you give him credit for.
Here’s some food for thought. If you normalize both McLouth and Ellsbury’s PA’s to say 600 and you take their best years OBP wise, then each player is going to make an out at about the same rate. McLouth is going to give you more extra base hits every year whereas Ellsubry is going to give you more stolen bases. Care to guess which one has more value (XB vs. SB)? Even if both stats had the same value – which they do not – Ellsbury would be only a slight upgrade to McLouth. Regardless, why is it that you think Ellsbury could lead-off while McLouth would have to hit down in the order if they both make outs at the same rate???
Now, having said all that, I made a big assumption that McLouth will come close to returning to form AND that Ellsbury will not have any lasting side effects of his injury. The fact is, nobody knows what will happen with either player this year. Therefore the only analysis we can make is based off what they have done in the past. Past history tells us that Ellsbury is not that much better than McLouth – cheaper yes, better no.
youre right i should have facotred in the other base hits.. and accounted for the difference in PAs
so ellisbery has 10 triples and 8 homers in ’09
Mclouth had 2 triples and 20 hr in ’09
which is really a slight difference compared when compared to the no. of more times ellisbery will get into scoring position. still, i am not the kind of debater that can’t hear a point.. i didnt give mclouth as much credit as i should have for his homers.
so while nate will give us a few more XBs, ellisbury will give us a lot more SBs
to be fair though.. mclouth had only 507 abs vs ellisburys 624
however, it also had to be added, that ellisbury, if in the lineup, would be more of an everyday centerfielder and mclouth (we hope) would be platooned to not bat against lefties as often. So that might be a semi realistic hypothetical (funny 2 words to put together ) no. of PAs for both of them next year
as far as leading off.. i think last years experiment was enough to show that he doesnt have the psyche to be a leadoff hitter, and even if he could, we wont put him in a position where he failed last year when we are trying to nurture him into a rebound..
I wish i knew more about ellisbury’s injury, because my tendency is to believe he is more likely to come back from the injury than mclouth is to return to form, but considering that ellisbury did not come back at the end of the season last year, I am not sure.. and if the injury has anything to do with speed muscles i would be concerned about his tools—but it doesnt.
anyway, i am not sure that we can say that ellsbury is only slightly better than mclouth with the bat.
and with the glove.. ellsbury had a uzr of 21 and uzr/150 of 23 in 08 and was voted the AL defensive player of the year in ’09
Mclouth on the other hand had a UZR of about 1 in ’09 and in ’08 was -12
i think he would be a huge upgrade..
and we have to stop there and agree or disagree with that
before we start to question cost..
I am not going to restart the value of SB debate here...
…I already did that in regards to Ellsbury in the rosterbation thread. Suffice it to say, I agree with scstrato completely.
Alas, however, it is all academic (as is the Gardner speculation), with Werth signing with the Nats today and the Angels still the most likely destination for Crawford, I don’t think either will be available.
CALLED WERTH!
And in the McLouth v. Ellsbury discussion, his better D should have some factor in it. That said, I’m sold on a no to Ellsbury unless he’s cheaper than expected.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Good post, man.
I have been calling for us to get Ellsbury for a while now, and I also believe it could realistically happen. Sure, we may have to give up a little more than we would like to get him, but we have more than enough good prospects to get this deal done. Ellsbury would really solidify this lineup and make us a force to be reckoned with.
Thanks Bobby!
I’d rather spend the money on a SS/3B utility guy that lets Prado stay in LF than Ellsbury, who really isn’t much of an upgrade over McLouth. Ellsworth is definitely better, but not by much. Meanwhile, our infield bench is REAL weak.
Free Matt Young!
We could do both
Ellsbury is getable but i dont see it happening which is why Wren will probably look to the utility guy 1st and then see whos available for CF and if nothing else we got McLouth back and lets hope he can rebound
I think Cameron makes more sense than Ellsbury...
add him, plus a large portion of his salary being covered by the Red Sox, sign an Adam Everett or Edgar Renteria as backup IF, and look for a primary 25 of…
McCann
Freeman
Uggla
Gonzalez
Chipper/Prado
Heyward
McLouth/Cameron
Prado/McLouth
with a bench of Ross, Mather, Hinske, Cameron/McLouth, defensive signing or internal option
Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Minor/Beachy
with a bullpen of Kimbrel, Linebrink, Venters, Moylan, O’Flaherty, Proctor, Martinez/Marek
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
i want to..
but is our only way to get rid of mather in a trade? or would it be a waste of .5mil to bring him to camp and cut him?
i dont disagree
the braves obviously see somehing in him and he is an actual super utility guy..
I agree Mr Sanchez
I think that would be the best case scenario with us signing Renteria as a backup for Gonzalez if we can get the Red Sox to eat some of his contract
our infield bench is only real weak if you dont consider prado
and i dont think it will mes with him at all to move from position to position
It might not “mess with him”, but I dream of the day we have a relatively set line up of position players. I’m sick and tired of moving players here and there. This is MLB, not sandlot ball. I’d rather have a SS/3B bench guy than moving Prado back and forth from LF, 3B and 2B.
Free Matt Young!
i think that is the ideal as well
to have set players in set roles.. but i dont think that ideal is worth a single sacrafice of collective performance..
i also think that the world is getting increasingly creative, and so will its sports..
in an age where academics actually talk to other academics in fields different than their own, in an age where things are unifying more than compartmentalizing.. i am not sure that we will trend back towards the ideal of set players as a priority
I do think that it would be ideal to have a SS/3b bench guy that could keep prado in left—no question—however, i wouldnt sacrifice anything for this
MLBTR reporting the deal fell through
AGon and Boston had a 1 pm deadline to strike a deal, it didn’t happen. MLB may allow an extension, but as of now, no deal.
Free Matt Young!
“Not likely now” according to mlbtr. What’s the problem? AGon would be a stud at Fenway.
Morgan: Do you think I could come into the clubhouse after the game and display my ass for both those veterans and the younger guys?
Baker: Well, Joe, you are on the payroll of the team, and you're a legend, so I suppose — holy shit!
[Joe has appeared next to Dusty, in the dugout, completely naked]
Morgan: Hey.
Oh good!
Instead of simply adding on to the other 100 Ellsbury-related comments in the Rosterbation Thread, we make our own FanPost about him! That makes sense! Why didn’t I think of that before?
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Dec 5, 2010 5:06 PM EST via mobile reply actions
No more trading prospects. Just sign Gwynn Jr and call it an offseason. Maybe release Proctor.
Morgan: Do you think I could come into the clubhouse after the game and display my ass for both those veterans and the younger guys?
Baker: Well, Joe, you are on the payroll of the team, and you're a legend, so I suppose — holy shit!
[Joe has appeared next to Dusty, in the dugout, completely naked]
Morgan: Hey.
it sounds like you're being sarcastic..
but it does make sense to realize when a conversation is spilling over the brim of its current container and move it to another where it can be delt with better as opposed to scattered throughout a massive cumbersome thread
But, if you want a fanpost to be available on the right side of the page for more than a day or two, rosterbation belongs in the rosterbation thread. Otherwise, everybody with an idea, good or bad, well thought out or haphazard, will be posting a new fanpost. With all the comments about Ellsbury, Cameron, Granderson, Gardner, Hairston Jr, Gwynn Jr, etc, etc, etc, it would turn into a mess. It’s not the law, but it’s a good idea to keep rosterbation where it belongs. When something actually happens, it will get it’s own post.
Free Matt Young!
then make a new rosterbation thread...
we’ve had a dozen it seems since the season ended, and a new one almost every week. Just cause you think Ellsbury is the most realistic option out there doesn’t mean it deserves it’s own spot.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Seriously
Ellsbury is pretty much the central topic of discussion in the current one anyways.
Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand.
A CF has been the central discussion in all of them...
whether it’s Justin Upton, BJ Upton, Carlos Gomez, Ellsbury, Gardner, Werth, Crisp, etc.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
This is the most frustrating FP I've seen in a while.
I usually have a knack for avoiding these. Don’t know how this one sucked me in.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Well guys...
….as I noted above, this all seems a bit academic. Werth to the Nats squashes all of this, pretty much.
Yeah, but we still definitely needed a new FanPost.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Dec 5, 2010 5:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If this happens, that will leave Jacoby Ellsbury very expendable!
Does Adrian Gonzalez play the outfield now?
Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand.
its prettty obvious
Gonzalez plays 1B
Youk plays 3B
?
Profit
__________
Braves get Ellsbury
not that complicated really
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
by Swo12bv on Dec 5, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Sox made the deal
AGon to Boston, news conf tomorrow
Free Matt Young!
Since Werth went to the Nats, I will now await the “Josh Willingham available???/” fanpost.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Haha. It’s inevitable. If the Angels land Crawford there’s the strong possibilty of a Bobby Abreu/Torii Hunter fanpost in our near future as well.
Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand.
I might just have to Front Page that FanPost.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Dec 6, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
Crawford to Sox
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/red-sox-agree-to-sign-carl-crawford.html#disqus_thread
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand." - Leo Durocher
Man I just read that and was shocked to see so,I thought for sure he was going to the Angels.Lets hope Wren can pull another rabbit outta his hat and get Ellisbury for a reasonable price.Beachy plus another prospect
How about this idea:
We give up:
Ross (the Sox want a catcher bad)
We get
Ellsbury + Salty
I love Ross, but he’s wasted a bit here. Salty’s still pretty good and well thought of here.
I believe the Sox will pick up Russell Martin. Admittedly, we could do likewise and sell Ross to the Sox for Ellsbury, but I have to agree with dave — we gotta hold on to Rossie.
Bobby Cox, advising Jeff Francoeur about being thrown out of a game: "you’ll probably have to write a $500 check. Or you can do what I do, write a $10,000 one and tell them when it runs out, let me know."
I don't think they would go for that.
They like Salty, I don’t think they would consider Ross a significant upgrade. At most that part is a wash for them, leaving the trade with them just giving us Ellsbury. That would be nice, but it isn’t going to happen.
I've said many times on TC
Jacoby Ellisbury is the answer. While i feel Carlos Gomez would have an impact and at a much cheaper cost, I think Ellisbury would be worth what it took to acquire him. This idea has been shot down around here with arguments of he’s not available, he would cost too much, he’s only a bridge and he isn’t that good. IMO those are all very wrong. And now with Crawford on board in BOS, they have not only a log jam in the OF but have Crawford, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Drew and Ellisbury batting from the left side of the plate. I really think they would move him for the right offer. And I also believe that Beachy and a bullpen prospect would get it done. As do i think a Vizcaino/Ellisbury swap would be the best fit. We already have JT and Delgado as two promising young arms and have major holes in the OF. Vizcaino has already had elbow issues and with that delivery I see more forthcoming. I’ve also read that he isn’t too fan friendly and is being preached the “Braves way” from JT. We’ve seen good players shipped out before for not following these requirements. While i wouldn’t trade a prospect for that reason, I still think he is expendable for the right return. And this is it. Prado will see alot of time at 3B and Nate/Mather would fill in at LF. This move would absolutely give us a whole new dimension on the basepaths which i feel Fredi wants.
see whats there Frank
Following the infamous "astroglide" comment and the challenge for use of word:
"no way the Astros glide into the playoffs."
by BrockSamson on Aug 29, 2010 3:26 PM PDT
We're beating a dead horse when it comes to this Ellsbury discussion
Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand.
I am not a huge fan of Ellsbury.
And this is well known from my previous posts. (Basically, I don’t think SB’s are that valuable, and without them, Ellsbury isn’t particularly good.) That being said, if the Red Sox would go for Beachy and a bullpen prospect (i.e. not much of a prospect) for Ellsbury or VIzcaino for Ellsbury, I would be all for that. I mean, hell, I would want him if the Red Sox were just giving him away, too. Unfortunately, that isn’t going to happen. For starters, other teams with OF needs would offer far more than that.
Beachy, Marek, and Hyde?
would that work for you? Would it work for Theo? Looks like he’s considering it….
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
No problem with that deal.
But the Sox could get more from others for him.
i dont understand how SBs are not that valuable
what is the argument for that?
When an inning starts with a double, I get stoked.
when we get a guy on first, we waste an out just to get him to second sometimes.
a guy on second doesnt get doubled up (he would cut down on doubleplays anyway)
this is a guy that can score from second on a single as well!
or score from first on a double or go first to third on a single
that is not just SBs, but it comes with the terretory
and he doesnt just have SBs,
he hit 280 then 301 in his first 2 full seasons in the majors
his on base percentage was over 350, which makes him a great leadoff hitter.
this whole, SBs arent valuable thing does not make sense to me.
these are extremely valuable attributes of a player that lead to a lot more runs.
and what’s more, these can easily be the only runs you get across in games against hot pitchers
there have been numerous individuals who have done studies showing the probability of a runner scoring arn’t increased that drastically between a guy on first and a guy on second.
or more importantly the risk of losing an out by being caught stealing is outweighed by the advantage of stealing second.
ultimately what this means is that to be worth anything a player must steal bases in excess of 80% of the time (some commentators suggest this number is 70-75%, for honesty’s sake).
Now some will say you can’t boil everything down to statistics, and this is true, but the commentary is based on evaluating the runs scored in every environment over a very large sample, so what the people have done is compiled a list of all the times a runner was on first, second, or third (and any variation of base runners) and then listed the number of outs for all these situations (i.e. runner on first and second two out, runner on third no outs, and so on). The data was then complied on how often a run was scored in case, and the number of runs scored.
it was then concluded that SBs do not contribute more runs unless they are successful x% of the time (with x = 70-80%).
so when you hear someone say that SBs are that valuable that is what they are referring to.
It is also important ot note that we are not dealing with neutral run environments. so a SB for a team like the Braves in 2010, probably would have been more valuable than a SB for a team like the Yankees. the Braves are a station to station team and the Yankees hit HR, when a player hits a home run, obviously it doesn’t matter if the runner was on first or second. with a station to station team like the Braves last year it is more important. So it could be the case that a team will less power, could be advantaged by having successful base stealers moreso. However finding a guy who has a sufficiently high SB% and a sufficiently high OBP are rare. on my estimation there are less than 10 such guys in baseball, although I haven’t done any actual checking.
If I had to guess that is what cavebird means, chasing SBs for the sake of having guys who steal is stupid, the only guys who steal a lot of bases and are have high OBP are virtually untouchable (off the top of my head, Crawford, McCutcheon, Gardner, and Hanley come to mind)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Id like to give the internal options a chance
Jordan could bounce back, McLouth could bounce back, Matt Young could be a nice suprise.
i disagree
i bet we are stoked about schaffer starting in 2012,
I bet we are all excited about a september call up
2012 schaefer is better then 50-50. He’s a real risk to wash out entirely right now, who knows if he has any permanent damage to his wrist.
I hope he makes it, he deserves better then what he’s gotten in his career so far.
I just think for 2011, the Odds of CF proving 2.0 WAR is around 50-50 at best between the three-headed monster.
I may be the biggest Jordan Schafer fan on TC
and I truly believe he is the future CF of the Atlanta Braves and he will do so at a very high level. Still I don’t see any way he is in the bigs this season atleast til the summer, more realistically in September.
Following the infamous "astroglide" comment and the challenge for use of word:
"no way the Astros glide into the playoffs."
by BrockSamson on Aug 29, 2010 3:26 PM PDT
In principle, I’m also an optimist, but the reality is that -winning- playoff contending teams don’t use that many “could” phrases for any position. Nate wouldn’t like it (particularly given Fredi’s recent statement about CF being his to lose), but if you can upgrade and reduce risk, you gotta consider it.
Bobby Cox, advising Jeff Francoeur about being thrown out of a game: "you’ll probably have to write a $500 check. Or you can do what I do, write a $10,000 one and tell them when it runs out, let me know."
I agree with you
Im excited to see how it goes along.
by steeeeezzzzzz on Dec 9, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Yes they do...
as evidenced by the Giants outfield last season. They had what, six outfielders before the playoffs began??
With enough options, a best will present itself. The chance of each of those “coulds” is 50-50, but the likelihood that one of the three works out is much more likely.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Um, see our OF last year...
With enough options, a best will present itself.
Not necessarily C.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
pull up a chair
grab a knife and fork, and eat it.
We’re stuck with it whether he’s starting or not so if the money is there a cheap upgrade wouldn’t have any negative effect.
Following the infamous "astroglide" comment and the challenge for use of word:
"no way the Astros glide into the playoffs."
by BrockSamson on Aug 29, 2010 3:26 PM PDT
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