SB Nation Atlanta Editor's Pick

Braves Starters: Swing and Miss Percentages

by bbxxj on Dec 29, 2010 2:24 PM EST

I was visiting another SB blog Royals Review today (yes I know but I have to have an AL team right?) and they had an interesting article that broke down the swing and miss percentages for their pitchers over the last year. So in this post I will shamefully rip off the idea and look at the swing and miss percentages for our starters who made any starts last year. I have listed the number of pitches, percentage of each thrown, average velocity, swing and miss, fouled off, put in play and with a little spreadsheet calculating the total swing and miss percentage for all pitches from the individual pitcher.

Of course wiff percentage isn't the end all or even the near end all measurement for a pitcher's effectiveness but in a vacuum a swing and miss is the best outcome a pitcher can hope for and it is a fairly good measure of how hard to hit a pitch is.

Tim Hudson
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FF	1030	30.5%	91.1	5.2%	17.4%	21.0%	54
SI	677	20.1%	91.2	6.4%	18.3%	27.0%	43
SL	596	17.7%	85.5	13.1%	13.6%	16.6%	78
FT	499	14.8%	90.9	3.8%	17.8%	24.4%	19
CH	273	8.1%	83.1	10.3%	14.3%	17.9%	28
CU	152	4.5%	76.1	11.8%	12.5%	5.3%	18
FS	101	3.0%	84.3	10.9%	18.8%	22.8%	11
FC	39	1.2%	88.2	7.7%	15.4%	17.9%	3
Total	3367						7.54%

Tommy Hanson
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FF	1708	52.2%	92.7	5.7%	20.0%	20.9%	97
SL	914	27.9%	84.1	14.2%	17.8%	16.4%	130
CU	412	12.6%	76.2	11.9%	10.4%	14.6%	49
FT	132	4.0%	92.2	3.8%	22.0%	17.4%	5
CH	104	3.2%	83.5	9.6%	13.5%	15.4%	10
Total	3270						8.90%

Derek Lowe
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
SI	1972	60.9%	88.4	6.6%	17.0%	20.3%	130
SL	570	17.6%	81.1	15.6%	9.1%	16.7%	89
CH	403	12.4%	83.9	14.4%	15.9%	22.1%	58
FC	147	4.5%	86	5.4%	14.3%	15.6%	8
FF	72	2.2%	87.9	2.8%	13.9%	20.8%	2
FA	54	1.7%	87.2	5.6%	11.1%	11.1%	3
CU	20	0.6%	81	10.0%	25.0%	15.0%	2
Total	3238						9.02%

Jair Jurrjens
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FF	702	39.3%	91.3	8.0%	20.1%	19.7%	56
CH	355	19.9%	83.4	11.5%	16.6%	23.7%	41
SL	276	15.4%	80.5	18.1%	15.2%	15.9%	50
FT	264	14.8%	90.7	4.9%	15.9%	25.4%	13
FC	190	10.6%	89.8	3.2%	18.9%	18.4%	6
Total	1787						9.29%

Mike Minor
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FF	479	62.5%	90.9	7.7%	25.1%	17.5%	37
FT	123	16.1%	83.3	19.5%	17.1%	24.4%	24
CU	80	10.4%	78.2	16.3%	6.3%	10.0%	13
CH	69	9.0%	81.8	18.8%	18.8%	11.6%	13
Total	751						11.57%

Kenshin Kawakami
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FT	328	23.2%	89.3	3.4%	15.5%	25.3%	11
CH	284	20.1%	84.1	12.7%	20.4%	19.4%	36
FF	273	19.3%	89.7	5.9%	15.8%	19.8%	16
CU	212	15.0%	71.8	10.4%	17.9%	19.3%	22
FC	195	13.8%	87.3	10.3%	16.4%	17.4%	20
FA	65	4.6%	88.5	6.2%	16.9%	23.1%	4
FO	55	3.9%	83.5	12.7%	12.7%	29.1%	7
Total	1412						8.25%

Brandon Beachy
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FF	154	57.2%	91.1	6.5%	22.1%	12.3%	10
CH	64	23.8%	81.3	17.2%	17.2%	31.3%	11
CU	32	11.9%	75.1	6.3%	12.5%	12.5%	2
FC	19	7.1%	91	15.8%	31.6%	10.5%	3
	269						9.68%

Kris Medlen
Type	Count	Selection	Velocity	Whiff	Foul	In Play	Whiffs
FT	836	52.9%	90.1	2.5%	18.9%	21.7%	21
CH	410	25.9%	80.5	27.3%	16.6%	19.8%	112
FF	189	12.0%	90.2	2.1%	13.8%	21.2%	4
CU	146	9.2%	78.8	7.5%	9.6%	18.5%	11
	1581						9.35%

Code	Type
FA	Fastball
FF	4-seam Fastball
FT	2-seam Fastball
FC	Cut Fastball
FS	Split-finger Fastball
FO	Forkball
SI	Sinker
SL	Slider
CU	Curveball
KC	Knuckle Curve
EP	Ephuus
CH	Change-up
SC	Screwball
KN	Knuckleball
UN	Unknown

Notes:

-The hardest pitch to hit was Medlen's change at a 27.5% swing and miss rate.

-The easiest pitch to hit was also Medlen with his 4-seam fastball at a 2.1% swing and miss rate. He threw that pitch 189 times and got 4 wiffs... it sets up his changup I guess.

-The best overall swing and miss rate was Minor at 11.57% (this kid is good folks) and the worst was Hudson at 7.54% (all those fastballs and sinkers beat into the ground did him in).

-The fastest average pitch was Hanson's 4-seamer at 92.7 mph and the slowest average pitch was Kawakami's curve at 71.8.

-A semi unrelated but interesting Braves' pitch tidbit: the single pitch with the highest 'runs above average' rating in 2010 according to Fangraphs was Tim Hudson's fastball at +32.1, beating out Jimenez's fastball, Liriano's slider, Halladay's cutter, Wainwright's curve, Marcum's change, Kuroda's splitter and Dickey's Knuckler. Man, how unhittable would a pitcher be if he could throw all eight of those pitches just like those guys do?

EDIT 1: Added Medlen's data who I missed on the first try.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Comments

Very nice work. Rec'd.

Just wondering…what was the whiff count on Kris Medlen’s change-up?

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 29, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions

Don’t know how I missed Meds. Going to go add him.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Dec 29, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

You’re a saint.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 29, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Great idea, even if it’s not yours. Thanks.

Valued customer of Boris' Baseball Boutique

by VivaLosBravos on Dec 29, 2010 2:49 PM EST reply actions

Amazing work

Thanks. I want to see Hanson throw his change a little more, especially against LH batters. Medlen’s change is just sick and I really think Minor is going to turn into a good #2.

by Braves24 on Dec 29, 2010 3:34 PM EST reply actions

Hanson had a 11.0% Wiff against lefties and a 12.5% against righties wit hhis change so I’m not sure how much of a differnce it makes.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Dec 29, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

Normally a change is more effective for right hand pitchers against lefties. I just want him to throw it more often

by Braves24 on Dec 29, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions

You are very correct

I’m just saying in this case the ‘whiff% evidence’ doesn’t say it’s really more effective to one side or the other. I wish I could find a LD% data on balls in play per pitch type as that would be even more telling.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Dec 30, 2010 12:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

right

sometimes there are exceptions like in all cases, but has he thrown it enough to prove that it doesn’t matter which side the batter bats from?

by Braves24 on Jan 2, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions

Didn’t know Huddy had like 15 diferent fastballs, good to know.

by king of games on Dec 29, 2010 4:01 PM EST reply actions

Actually brings me to a question

I dont think all of our pitchers are trying to throw 10 different pitches. So, does this chart include pitches that do one thing even tho they are supposed to do another?

For instance, does Timmy really throw a cut fastball? Or did he throw something else 39 times that counted as a cut fastball?

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Dec 29, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

Let's not think that far ahead.

“That kind of thinkin can get you into trouble, Lou.”

Every time, when I hear the national anthem, I say Atlanta between "home of the" and "brave". And I imagine those jets that fly over being painted in red, blue, and having a painting of the Tomahawk.

by ChopMaster on Dec 29, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

A guy like Huddy, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did throw multiple FB types. I just never really considered the possibility that guys would throw a few different types of fasballs. It’s genius if it is on purpose.

by king of games on Dec 30, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

He throws at least three, it’s not uncommon for a guy like that to throw with different grips or different angles just to make it look different to a hitter.

http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/

by MWhitexx on Jan 3, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions

He throws a four seamer that appears to rise, a two seamer that breaks away like a backwards slider, a cutter that breaks in like a fast tight slider, and a sinker and splitter that both break down in different ways.

He has five fastballs and then a change that looks the same coming out of his hand so its no wonder hitters have no problem hitting his pitches but loads of problems hitting them square. He throws six different ‘straight’ pitches but all of them end up in a slightly different part of the barrel of the bat and part of the swing angle.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 5, 2011 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

I’d be inclined to see the list of pitches Liriano throws.

by drumzalicious on Dec 31, 2010 11:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Thanks!

This is a great summary.

"Give him the heater Ricky."

by Pavy848 on Dec 29, 2010 4:20 PM EST reply actions

Ah...

The good ole’ ephuus. I threw it in little league as a surprise pitch. Had to throw it right above the batter’s head from my point of view to sink down enough without hitting the dirt. Dazzled some players with it. I threw it about 10 times in my 2-year little league career. Only 1 guy hit it, straight to center for a double. I had people in the stands smiling when I struck the batter out with it. I was in the 11-12 year old league, with a pretty small field.

Every time, when I hear the national anthem, I say Atlanta between "home of the" and "brave". And I imagine those jets that fly over being painted in red, blue, and having a painting of the Tomahawk.

by ChopMaster on Dec 29, 2010 5:33 PM EST reply actions