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Braves 2011 Top-25 Prospects: 1-5

The future ace of the Atlanta Braves, Julio Teheran.

Talking Chop ranks the top-25 Braves prospects for 2011. For an introduction and an explanation of how this list was compiled, go here. This is our top five ... pretty damn similar to the Baseball America top-5. In fact, it's exactly the same. That was not planned, and this list was not altered, that just what each of us arrived at on our own. I guess that validates what we're doing.

All of these prospects are going to be studs. If I were handing out stars, they would all be five (out of five, with five being the highest) star prospects. We're talking the best right-handed pitching prospect to come out of the system, maybe ever, apologies to Tommy Hanson and Adam Wainwright. The best left-handed starter since Tom Glavine. The best closer since Mark Wohlers, and maybe the best first base prospect we've ever produced. Oh, and another right-handed pitching prospect as good as Tommy Hanson. This group of five is absolutely ridiculous, and the best part is they're all going to be in the Majors at some point this season. THE FUTURE IS NOW!

Talking Chop will also ask anyone who wants to give it a shot to rank your own top-25 Braves prospects, but not in this post. The rank your own post will be coming up shortly, so wait for that one.

1. Julio Teheran, RHSP
The Skinny:
His combination of youth, dominant stuff, and command make him one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and one of the most eagerly anticipated pitching prospects in Braves history.
The Good: He has command of an dominant fastball that tops out at 97 and sits 93-94. His change-up is one of the best in the minors and is a true strike out pitch. At 19 years old he was one of the youngest players in each league he appeared in this season and was still dominant.
The Bad: His curve is still inconsistent and he has a tendency to leave it flat and high in the zone. He occasionally telegraphs his change-up, but it's so good he still managed to get swing-and-miss strikes with it. His small frame and herky-jerky mechanics lead some to believe that injuries and durability could be a problem ... we're nitpicking, this kid is a stud with all the tools he needs.
In a perfect world: Teheran is a perennial All-Star and spends the next decade battling Strausburg for Cy Youngs.
ETA: Late 2011 call-up with a shot to stick in 2012.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B
The Skinny:
Started the year slow in Gwinnett as the second youngest player in the International League, and finished in the top five in doubles, runs batted in, bating average, on base percentage and on-base plus slugging percentage before making his major league debut.
The Good: He is young with good contact skills and power to the gaps, which translates into lot of doubles that should eventually turn into homeruns. Doesn't strike out much and plays excellent defense at first base.
The Bad: His gap power may or may not translate into above average home run power at a position where home run power is expected. He could stand to take some more walks.
In a perfect world: He develops the above average power for the position and spends the next decade in Atlanta hitting .300 with 30 HR and collecting gold gloves.
ETA: Now. Barring a complete meltdown he will be Atlanta's starting first baseman in 2011.

3. Randall Delgado, RHSP
The Skinny:
Put together a fantastic 2010 season that saw him lead the Carolina League in strikeouts (plus several other categories) before being promoted to Mississippi where he more than held his own as a 20 year old.
The Good: He features a plus fastball that sits in the low to mid-90s and tops out at 96. His curve and change-up both have the potential to be plus pitches. His youth and slender frame lend themselves to more projection as he fills out.
The Bad: His control wavers (4.1 BB/9 in AA) from time to time which takes the edge off his off-speed pitches, which in turns leads to him getting hit harder.
In a perfect world: Delgado overcomes his control problems and he becomes an ace and a workhorse for the next decade, second on the team to only Julio Teheran.
ETA: He could be one of the first young Atlanta pitching prospects to make his Major League debut for the Braves in 2011, now that he is on the 40-man roster. Should see the Majors at some point in 2011.

4. Mike Minor, LHSP
The Skinny:
The Braves' top selection in the 2009 draft dominated AA and AAA in 2010 before finishing the season in Atlanta.
The Good: A change back to his preferred mechanics led to increased speed on his fastball. Tight curveball is a well above average pitch and changeup is very solid. Has a great feel for pitching and approaches every batter with a game plan.
The Bad: Wore down as the season went on, but that shouldn't be a problem going forward. It remains to be seen if his increased velocity was a fluke or if it's here to stay.
In a perfect world: Minor becomes a top of the rotation lefty who is just as successful as his former Vanderbilt teammate David Price.
ETA: Now. After ending 2010 in Atlanta's rotation, Minor win the team's fifth starter in 2011 Spring Training.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHRP
The Skinny:
Spent 2010 bouncing between Gwinnett and Atlanta, striking out hitters at record setting levels at both stops before finishing the year under Billy Wagner's tutelage, and as a go-to reliever for Bobby Cox
The Good: His fastball is one of the best in the game right now, topping out at 98 with heavy sink. He has been called a right-handed version of Billy Wagner. His ‘slider' (he calls it a curve) is an above average pitch that is made better by his fastball.
The Bad: With the explosive stuff comes the struggle to harness it. He has made progress controlling his wildness and limiting his walks (especially late in the season in Atlanta) but he still struggles enough that there will be implosions.
In a perfect world: He becomes effectively wild à la Mark Wohlers and is the elite closer the Braves have needed to develop since Smoltz left the role.
ETA: Now. After making the 2010 playoff roster for the Braves, Kimbrel will be given every shot to earn the Braves closer's spot in 2011.

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Awesome write up guys.

In a perfect world: We get another “Big 3 or 4” that rivals the “Big 3” in league dominance. Have fun NL East.

"Give him the heater Ricky."

by Pavy848 on Dec 17, 2010 8:31 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

He is defintatly going to be in ST. Most think he will bein hte major in 2012 but he might come up mid season or in September callups

"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."

-Yogi Berra

by BravosFanatic on Dec 17, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

"Kimbrel calls his slider a curve"...

that’s because he throws it like a curve, but it reaches the plate so fast it doesn’t have time to drop!

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 8:48 AM EST reply actions  

Update:

Freddie Freeman
The Bad: Uncoordinated, Not Good and Murphy4HallofFame(I think) hates everything about him)

Following the infamous "astroglide" comment and the challenge for use of word:

"no way the Astros glide into the playoffs."

by BrockSamson on Aug 29, 2010 3:26 PM PDT

by JKowalek on Dec 17, 2010 9:03 AM EST reply actions  

Minor

In my perfect world I don’t see him being anything near Price and I’d still be very happy with him as a middle of the rotation lefty.

Following the infamous "astroglide" comment and the challenge for use of word:

"no way the Astros glide into the playoffs."

by BrockSamson on Aug 29, 2010 3:26 PM PDT

by JKowalek on Dec 17, 2010 9:06 AM EST reply actions  

I see him as a bit of a cross between John Danks and Jonathan Sanchez, as weird as that may sound.

But I forsee him having a handfull of 14-18 win seasons before its all said and done.

60% of the time, it works every time

by ATLandUNC on Dec 17, 2010 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Price is not nearly as good as he’s made out to be by the general public, not yet at least. Currently he relies almost entirely on his fastball, with his slider and curve being thrown once every 10 pitches each. I could certainly see Minor being just as good if Price never improves his secondary pitches.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio

by BenDuronio on Dec 17, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

If I'm a Lefty...

with a 98-mph fastball I don’t really need to throw anything else. Ask Wags about that…

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

If Price had Wags slider, it would be unfair.

Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson are special in their own ways. OK?

by Mr.Hoss on Dec 17, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Although throwing mostly fastballs for 6-7 innings a game and not having it hurt you is amazing. As good as Wags was he did it usually only an inning a game and his slider kept people honest.

"Give him the heater Ricky."

by Pavy848 on Dec 17, 2010 10:43 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Teheran

“one of the most eagerly anticipated pitching prospects in Braves history. "

Is that true or somewhat hyperbole? If its true, I have been undervaluing him. What current dominant pitcher would you compare him to?

by hoyabinx on Dec 17, 2010 9:08 AM EST reply actions  

He has a higher ceiling than Hanson if that tells you anything and probably a higher projected ceiling than wainwright when he was around. Other than those guys it is hard to say on guys like Glavine and Smoltz back in the day because there was less coverage on prospects then. Against positional prospects Andruw was more hyped, as were Chipper, Marte, and probably even Mike Kelly and Ryan Klesko.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I think this is a bit neocentric

Prospects have always been hyped. Look @ Bob Feller and his acclaim… and he was barely signed when he debuted. In the 70’s, the A’s pitched 2 1st round picks (sorry, can’t remember the names… 1 flamed out, the other was an average MLB P for years) immediately after signing them. The marketing strategy of selling the fans on “look what we have coming up” has been around since they’re have been professional ball players.

by theatlfan on Dec 17, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry... one more thing on Glavine/Smoltz

We acquired Smoltz after he made AA and made his debut in MLB less than a year after, so he didn’t have the time to develop the “hype” of the other guys. Glavine isn’t the flame thrower K guy that would generate a ton of hype.

by theatlfan on Dec 17, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

true but the media coverage wasn’t the same then. You can point out that Bob Feller was pretty hyped, but it still stands that the prospect coverage just wasn’t as in depth until the mid 90s when baseball america took off. And the internet for that matter.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess you could argue that there weren't as many people either...

but there were definitely avenues to learn about prospects. In the 80’s I remember getting the Sporting News baseball preview and listening to the Braves’ prospect show. It may be easier to find the info now (as it is with anything), but for those who truly wanted to know, the info was out there…

by theatlfan on Dec 17, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Lots of scouts seem to use the Pedro Martinez comp, but Pedro wasn’t nearly as highly thought of as a prospect. I don’t know enough about Felix Hernandez to make that comp.

by gondeee on Dec 17, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

What do you think about a Tim Lincecum comparison?

by ducheneaux13 on Dec 17, 2010 2:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I don’t see it. Lincecum’s delivery is so unorthodox that it’s tough to compare him to anyone.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Lincecum’s delivery is quite unique, but in terms of fastball velocity, movement, and location combined with the filthy changeup, I think Teheran’s stuff compares pretty well.

by ducheneaux13 on Dec 17, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

not exactly a current pitcher anymore

but I have read on several different sites that Teheran compares to a young Pedro Martinez, and many think he’s farther along in his development than Pedro was at this point in his career. We could have something special on our hands

by leedawg on Dec 17, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I was going to comment on that as well...

It’s hyperbole, but there’s a little truth to it. Avery was very well-known before he made a pitch in the bigs, and I do remember the “4 aces” stuff about Glavine and Pete Smith (I think that Smoltz and Avery were the other 2, but Tommy Greene was another guy who could have been in there). Derek Lilliquist makes the list here too, but that was partly due to his playing @ UGA in college.

Before that, I was prolly too young to remember some of the elite guys that would have caused a buzz. I know Spahn and Sain would have, but I don’t even know if they came up as Braves or what the hype was around them.

by theatlfan on Dec 17, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Another name to add to the list: Millwood

Millwood’s hype was prolly lost on many since there wasn’t really on offseason after taking a step to being an elite type prospect. But I do remember when he went 7-0 w/ a sub-2.00 ERA in AAA, people were clamoring for him.

by theatlfan on Dec 17, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, Millwood’s hype built up all in the 1997 season. He didn’t have a couple years for it to fester, he just dominated AA and AAA then was in the bigs for good.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Dec 17, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

So, in a perfect world, would a 2015 Braves rotation of Teheran, Hanson, Delgado, and Minor

be as good if not better than the 1993 rotation?

Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson are special in their own ways. OK?

by Mr.Hoss on Dec 17, 2010 9:15 AM EST reply actions  

Hopefully we can add a healthy Kris Medlen to that rotation and really give it to Philadelphia and the rest of the NL.

by michaelcooksey on Dec 17, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Or Jair Jurrjens,...

or Carlos Perez, or JJ Hoover, or…

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Vizcaino?

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Dec 17, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Beachy? Spruill? Devall?

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

As you saw last year. I don’t think Medlen has the endurance to be a starter for a whole season. We over worked him and he got injured. I love how in the 16 games he pitched in our record was 15-1, but he will be a great long relief man when needed.

"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."

-Yogi Berra

by BravosFanatic on Dec 17, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Tearing your UCL...

doesn’t have to do anything with endurance though. He pitched as strong in his later starts as he did when he was coming out of the bullpen). Don’t forget Medlen also injured his shoulder sliding into homeplate as a PR (which is why I absolutely love him as a player). It was just one of those years for him…

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I would just rather have in as a long relief/setup man in the future. Wouldn’t you just love if one of our starters has a bad first 1 or 2 innings and you can just bring in Medlen or when we go into extras and Medlen pitches 4 scoreless innings?

"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."

-Yogi Berra

by BravosFanatic on Dec 17, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I would love a 5th starter...

who consistently got himself into the 7th inning like Meds proved he could do this year…

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

using Medlen as a long relief pitcher is a disgrace to his ability. he should either be a starting pitcher or be pitching in a high leverage situation.

"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."

Dwight Schrute

by Swo12bv on Dec 17, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

depends. Those guys in the 90s were HOFers they had some historically dominant seasons.But these guys we have coming up all have the potential of at least a #2 starter. Hanson and Teheran are Ace type pitchers, Delgado could be a strong #1starter for a lot of teams, Vizcaino has that #1 potential as well if the arm holds up, Minor could be a very good #2.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

which is why I said "in a perfect world" assuming all meet their potential. From the post, I gathered we will have the potential to have 4 aces.

Is that going to happen, probably not, but if it does, OH MY!

Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson are special in their own ways. OK?

by Mr.Hoss on Dec 17, 2010 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Nice write-up

Was having a shitty day at work, but reading this lifted my spirits. Very excited for the debut of Teheran and Delgado. And after seeing Kimbrel in the 2010 NLDS, I have no doubts about him being a sick closer for years to come. Batters will fear him very soon.

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Dec 17, 2010 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

Great write up

Delgado really doesn’t have control issues. Last year he had a 3.6 BB/9 in Rome. That isn’t bad, but its average and can could be improved and that is exactly what he did this year. He had 2.5 BB/9 in Myrtle, which is a very good. He did struggle at first in AA, but his last couple of starts the walks started to go down.

by Braves24 on Dec 17, 2010 11:09 AM EST reply actions  

Great write-up....
I am excited to see Tehran and Delgado.I am a bit unsure about Minor, but time will tell.Kimbrel is just filthy.

Just one thing about all this and the Phils staff…All this talk about the greatest staff of all time.I hear about the 1954 Indians(never saw) or the Baltimore staff with Palmer,McNally… It really is silly to me.Glavine,Smoltz and Maddux are Hall of Famers,and made up the greatest pitching staff ever. They started as prospects,went to the bigs and struggled,learned,became good pitchers,and then great. From my seat, only Hanson is along in this process.

by mikie baseball on Dec 17, 2010 11:10 AM EST reply actions  

+1

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Dec 17, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

i dont think we can undervalue hanson

he is the only guy ever to blank the yankees and redsox in his rookie year, and he did it back to back and in years that the two teams were stacked! The guy is a competitor, his mind is sharp as a razor. I expect a huuuuge year from tommy in 2011, he has gotten his second season under his belt, he went through a tough stretch for the first time, came out on the other end, and pitched nasty the rest of the season.

Besides may and june in which he had a 5.09 and 6.13 era he posted a 2.17 era in april, 2.43 in july, 3.05 in august, and a wicked 2.04 in september (not including his one october shut out of the phleusies)

So lets get it strait, besides the first lull of his career (we are glad thats under his belt) he was pitching with a sub 2.5 ERA… thats in his sophomore year after posting a 2.9 era in his rookie year (subtract the first start and it drops considerably).

If Teheran pitches anything like this in his first year and a half, we should be dancing on the tables.

in my mind, Hanson is poised for a filthy year, and a tremendous career of absolute ace caliber stuff.. If Teheran is actually going to be better, it is like comparing Pedro Martinez to John Smoltz

by willlinn on Dec 17, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Im starting to get the feeling that Teheran is getting the Pedro comp bc hes latin

Makes me wonder how legit it really is.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Dec 18, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions  

mmm, he has a similar frame and similar stuff honestly which also makes me wonder if he is going to have the same arm and shoulder issues.

by yondaime4 on Dec 18, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I have saw Kimbrel hit 99 mph at least three times and maybe 100 once when he was trying to close out Game 3 against the Giants and I think the reason for that was all the adreniline. But I loved the write up and I can’t wait till they are all up in the majors.

"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."

-Yogi Berra

by BravosFanatic on Dec 17, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

TV Radar guns are notoriously rigged, especially for big events. Most stadium guns also read the release point of the pitcher and not the speed that the pitch crosses the plate which is where a scout tracks the pitch.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I was at the Gamenot watching it on Tv. I bet though he hit 99 at least once because that was the loudest I have ever seen a baseball game get

"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."

-Yogi Berra

by BravosFanatic on Dec 17, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Unless you were sitting behind a scout you were still seeing the stadium gun. Either way I’m not denying he hit 99. But 98 is generally where his velocity caps. Hell I saw a stadium gun register maddux at 101 in 1998.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 7:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Three of these guys are going to be in the Majors to start 2011. That’s ridiculous.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Dec 17, 2010 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

So when's the thread...

to predict next year’s top 10 prospects?

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Never?

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Dec 17, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

After 2011?

Teheran, probably still #1.
Lipka, Salcedo, Bethancourt, and Perez hopefully are somewhere in the top 10 cause I’d think those would be the least likely to be traded. Other than that, it seems fair game amongst a lot to round out the top 10.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Forgot Vizcaino...

so that’s hopefully 6 of the top 10, assuming the rest of the top 10 is on the 40 man roster and likely to lose rookie status sometime this season (except maybe Delgado).

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with Teheran, Vizcaino and Lipka… prolly Perez as well,but I think Salcedo and Bethancourt need to take a step before they start getting hit with prospect fatigue. Hoover is a shoo-in for me as well, and I don’t think Delgado loses his prospect status yet. Oberholtzer keeps a slot with just a decent campaign.

There are a bunch of guys who could take the next step though and Salcedo and Bethancourt would definitely top the list of guys that I’d prefer do that. Any of the recent draftees would top the list of possible breakout candidates as well as the DSL guys. A healthy Milligan could tear up the rankings as well.

by theatlfan on Dec 17, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s why I think our farm rivals KC..

Your seriously using kryptonite bullets on Batman? That's Superman's weakness, but yeah, the funeral will be on Friday..

by bwellnjonesco on Dec 17, 2010 6:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Mike Minor

How far he’s come. A little trip down memory lane.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/7/22/958051/braves-draft-review

There are loads of similar threads from TC back then of screaming for Matzek, Purke, and Grant Green.

Guess the Braves knew what they were doing after all.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Dec 17, 2010 12:56 PM EST reply actions  

That because

When the Braves drafted him his mechanics were off and he was sitting 88-90 with little movement on his FB, his secondary pitches(except his change) were just decent offerings. So at the time he had a very limited upside and no one expected him to picked at #7. Also Purke and Matzek have Ace potential upside which is what you normally look for with a Top 10 pick.

by Jay212033 on Dec 17, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

I remember. But as usual, people needed to have more faith in the Braves FO.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Dec 17, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

BTW

Don’t think you were on TC then, but it was a bloodbath of negativity. But flash forward 1.5 years, and Minor’s ceiling went from #4 starter to #2, meanwhile Purke never signed and Matzek/Green are still in the low minors.

Yeah, I’d say the Braves knew what they were doing just fine.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Dec 17, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I've been here since 2008

And yeah I saw all the negative post including mine. I have no problem say that I didn’t like the pick at that time. Because Minor’s stuff wasn’t as good as it is now and I didn’t see much projection although I did see his mechanics were off.

by Jay212033 on Dec 17, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t you think the Braves scouts realized that just by changing his mechanics, he would be able to increase his velocity?

by dunnytwogloves on Dec 17, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

no my guess is they scouted him in HS when he was using his preferred mechanics (which were changed by Vandy) and had that info in their back pocket, or something…and they talked to Price.

"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."

Dwight Schrute

by Swo12bv on Dec 17, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I was looking for some video of Teheran. This guy doesn’t think very highly of him.

http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/09/27/julio-teheran-scouting-report

Morgan: Do you think I could come into the clubhouse after the game and display my ass for both those veterans and the younger guys?

Baker: Well, Joe, you are on the payroll of the team, and you're a legend, so I suppose — holy shit!

[Joe has appeared next to Dusty, in the dugout, completely naked]

Morgan: Hey.

by TradeAndruw on Dec 17, 2010 1:06 PM EST reply actions  

That's odd

because he’s literally the only scout in baseball who doesn’t think he’s a stud.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

The scout makes it seem...

like a 19 year old doesn’t have the capabiltiy to one day disguise his delivery for all pitches…

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha, I love this little tidbit in there....

“Just watch his arm speed and his front-side deceleration and his intent to throw,” said Steve Carter, a former college hitter and our resident hitting expert. "

LOL

by Undocorkscrew on Dec 17, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Sounds like...

Steve made a tremendous living off deciphering a pitcher’s “intent to throw”…

What a terrible way to discredit someone…“former college hitter”???.

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

project prospect like to be different just to be different. I take everything they say with an unmined mountain of salt.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Its also video from spring training

Teheran isn’t the same pitcher now that he was then. Project Prospect has gotten way to caught up in how he looked the one time Adam Foster saw him live in ST.

by nixa37 on Dec 17, 2010 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

This

That entire article was based off of that one spring training appearance. It’s been brought up over and over on that site that they have underestimate him based on a single performance but they continue to base their rankings of him based on that. As an interesting side note, they really love Randall Delgado and ranked him as the #5 pitching prospect in baseball back in November before dropping him to #10 on their final list. Teheran was the 11th pitcher and Minor was the 6th.

by ajones2522 on Dec 17, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe so. The cutoff is 50 innings or/and 45 non-September days in the Majors. Minor has 40.2 innings and was called up on August 9th, so he doesn’t exceed either of those.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Dec 17, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm giddy.

"Now, I'm gonna go get off my horse by getting onto a smaller horse, and then onto a large dog, until I'm near enough to the ground to roll off."

by Bravely going forward on Dec 17, 2010 2:24 PM EST reply actions  

Our top-5 is so ridiculous

I’d only put the Royals and (maybe) the Rays ahead of us.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

What's even more ridiculous...

….is how close all 5 are to the majors. Minor, Freeman, and Kimbrel are already there with Teheran and Delgado not too far behind.

I’m pretty much in love with what Wren’s been able to do with this organization in his short stint thus far.

by Undocorkscrew on Dec 17, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

In all honesty, he hasn’t really made a bad move yet. The Esco/Gonzalez trade was very controversial, but things just weren’t working out. And it’s not like Esco went on to great things in Toronto. He could re-gain his form next year, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

He dumped Vazquez at the perfect time and got a stud prospect for him. The Ankiel deal with KC wasn’t all that great, but Ankiel did win two very important games for us. And the Uggla trade was highway robbery.

The Kawakami signing has caused problems, but he was still a solid #5. The Derek Lowe deal looked awful, but if he can duplicate what he did in September and October (or at least come close to it) the contract won’t look terrible.

It’s not easy to be a GM with a declining payroll, but Wren has done a phenomenal job.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Well, I guess I forgot about the McLouth trade. Unless he wakes up in 2011, that’s probably one Wren would’ve taken back. But even then, who would’ve thought McLouth would crap the bed like he did last year? He only had one good year in Pittsburgh and scouts said he couldn’t keep up that production, but most figured he would at least be above average once he regressed.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

McLouth wasn't as bad as Ankiel to me...

McLouth we gave up what may be nothing, just assumed his salary. And if this year he plays like 2009 instead of 2010, his production here would more than trump what we paid him for what looks like the AA version of Wily Tavares or Carlos Gomez, a starter with stuff who’s never put it together, and a AA lefty who may or may not make it.

Ankiel and Farnsworth, well Blanco would have provided as much as Ankiel did. And Farnsworth didn’t bring much to the bullpen of consequence, that we couldn’t have gotten from Kimbrel, Martinez, Kawakami, maybe even Marek instead. So keep Chavez, keep Collins, maybe save $1-2m as I’m assuming the Royals didn’t cover the entire difference in salaries although they did send some money. And maybe we could have used that $1-2m for Alvord or Sabol or both. Plus gotten better production from Blanco, still had him and Chavez and Collins as trade chips or cheap roster filler, etc. That was a bad deal.

And I think either the Kawakami or Lowe deal was unneccessary. We’d already dealt for Vazquez, and with the amount of veteran arms available for 1 year deals that offseason, combined with the flexibility we’d get from that and our recent glut of young starting pitching, I’d have said either one or the other of those 2 deals was not needed considering they were announced the same day.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

If he doesn’t pick it up in 2011 I’d say McLouth would be worse than Ankiel simply because of the money we paid the two players.

I agree and bringing in KK, Vazquez AND Lowe was overkill. The problem was the Braves were coming off their worst season in nearly 20 years and Wren wanted to fix the pitching staff. We had a ton of money, and he just went a little overboard.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

he did but

you can never have too much pitching right?

by Braves24 on Dec 17, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure can’t.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 18, 2010 1:46 AM EST up reply actions  

ehh somewhat true

Lowe was overpaid, but if KK was given the chance to start like in 2009 he would be worth his contract, probably more

by Braves24 on Dec 18, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

OK

I was speaking in general though. And Kawakami isn’t being given that chance, so it’s a moot point and he is bad money.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 19, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Total WAR, since trade

Nate McLouth: 0.4 WAR
Charlie Morton, 1.1 WAR

Meanwhile, in his first taste of AA, Locke posted a 8.74 K/9 a 1.87 BB/9.

If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.

by Yakker on Dec 17, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

McLouth's is diminished by this year...

so it’ll depend on his future performance. After 2009, the split was McLouth 1.7 WAR to Morton’s 1.2, so both put up negative WARs in 2010, although McLouth’s was obviously much worse.

Morton also had a 5.29 FIP this past year, and will be 27 next year. So it’ll be interesting to see if he ever puts it together to match his supposed stellar stuff.

Locke had a good year after a less than solid 2009, and he’ll be 23 repeating AA next year. We’ll see if he ever amounts to anything too, or is a Chuck James/Bruce Chen redux, if that.

But let’s cry about adding a MLB CF (who whether he’s good or not depends on if his 2011 is closer to 09 than 10) because they added some guys who’ve been good for them in AA.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 18, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

I like the depth...

lots of tools should be floating around Lynchburg, Rome, and Danville.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. A ton of breakout candidates as well.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

A lot could bust too though...

but you’ve got several high upside international players (Salcedo, Bethancourt, Perez, etc), experienced college players who could take off quickly from (Leonard, Milligan, Filak), plus the recent picks with big time tools (Lipka, Simmons, etc) and some veterans who’ve been in the system a couple years and could be ready to explode from what I assume will be a staart in Lycnhburg (Harrilchak, Milligan, Spruill).

Damn, I’m looking forward to the minor league reports already.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 17, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Is it April yet?

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I take it...

you don’t mean the locals…

by TBuzz on Dec 17, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not sold on Freeman at all. I wish we wold have kept Lee around for backup just in case Freeman is a bust.

by HeywardFTW! on Dec 17, 2010 2:38 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Not sold on Freeman at all? Why?

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 2:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

He has a solid glove and is a good defender at first which is good. I think he’s going to have trouble hitting major leaguers consistently and I could see a low avg in the 230-250 range. Also his power is a huge ? I don’t think he will be able to generate the power needed for a first baseman. He’s a solid prospect no doubt but I feel like we shouldn’t rush him and he should have spent half a year at AAA as opposed to becoming our everyday starter with no backup besides Hinske.

by HeywardFTW! on Dec 17, 2010 2:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think he’s going to have trouble hitting major leaguers consistently and I could see a low avg in the 230-250 range.

Why? Because he looked bad in 20 at-bats so far at the Major League level?

Also his power is a huge ? I don’t think he will be able to generate the power needed for a first baseman.

He’s 6’5, 230lbs and has a huge frame. He put up a .521SLG and .200ISO as a 20-year old in AAA, which made him one of the youngest guys in the entire league. Those numbers will surely drop a little in the Majors, but a .450SLG is very reasonable.

He’s probably not going to be the huge HR threat like Ryan Howard is, but he’ll hit a ton of doubles and give 15-25HRs on a yearly basis. If you combine that with his defense — he’s probably one of the top-10 defensive 1st baseman already — you have a very solid player at first.

He’s a solid prospect no doubt but I feel like we shouldn’t rush him and he should have spent half a year at AAA as opposed to becoming our everyday starter with no backup besides Hinske.

How are we rushing him? He was basically the MVP of triple-A last year and he played 125 games. Keeping him in triple-A would just be slowing down his development.

"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel

by Scott Coleman on Dec 17, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

give 15-25HRs on a yearly basis

Yea for the next two-three years I think he will be in this range, but after that I think he will be hitting 20-30HRs a year

by Braves24 on Dec 17, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

How are we rushing him? He was basically the MVP of triple-A last year and he played 125 games. Keeping him in triple-A would just be slowing down his development.

Here’s the main thing. It doesn’t matter about projections at this point. After a certain number of games, you just have to let top prospects prove it in the majors. There is no other way to do it. At some point, he gets a legit shot and either makes it or doesnt. That time is now. Any amount of games in AAA wont show us anything from him we havent already seen.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Dec 18, 2010 10:36 AM EST up reply actions  

And how do you plan for a half season at 1B?...

do we resign Glaus, and hope he can have a May like he did last year before collapsing again in June? I can see how it’s easy to expect a mid year call up in starting pitching, where you’re filling in 1 out of 5 in case of injury or poor performance, etc. Meanwhile, how do you plan to supplant a starting position player mid year? I brought this up for Heyward last year. Do you sign an injury prone vet, and hope he can last long enough for the young kid to get ready, hoping the young player doesn’t have a set back or severe injury themselves? Do you just go with a backup scrub for a month or three until calling on your young stud? How do you prepare for a midseason callup of a position player without basically saying screw the other half of the year for that position?

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 18, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the risk factors associated with Freeman have been well covered on this site.

by ajones2522 on Dec 17, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Starting the year in AAA wouldn’t hurt his development he is only 21. I think he needs more time to polish up his hitting. You are right that he smacks a lot of doubles but I don’t see him doing the same in the majors. He seems like a clone of Kotchman to me.

by HeywardFTW! on Dec 17, 2010 3:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Well that doesn’t make sense other than they are both white lh.1b. Freddie hit more HR in his first season than kotchman did in any 3 season stretch and he has been in the top 5 in doubles in every full season league he has played in.

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 9:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

It was a comparison of a solid defender but not so hot at the plate.

by HeywardFTW! on Dec 17, 2010 11:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

but its a horrible comparison, Kotchman never has a single season that is even close to Freeman’s in the minors…not to mention Freeman’s physical build is much more preferable in regards to future power production than Kotchman’s. There is nothing to the comparison offensively.

"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."

Dwight Schrute

by Swo12bv on Dec 17, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

The most HR that Kotch ever hit in the minors was 10 in two different years. He posted an .812 OPS in the PCL as a 22 year old while Freeman put up an .898 line as a 20 year old in the International league. Kotchman played in primarily hitters leagues in the CAL and the PCL. Freddie played in some of the most notorious pitcher’s parks (and leagues) in the minors. Rome, Myrtle Beach and Mississippi as especially tough ballparks to hit in. The only think Kotchman ever did better than Freeman offensively is take walks. and if I could give that ability to him he would be nearly perfect.

by yondaime4 on Dec 18, 2010 1:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Boom. This.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Dec 18, 2010 2:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Our pitching prospects are insane

Honestly, I don’t remember any organization ever having as many top end pitching prospects. Even if only half pan out we’re in grat shape.

by bamajoeb on Dec 17, 2010 6:04 PM EST reply actions  

Mmmm last years rays team had nieman Davis Morse McGee and a few other promising arms on top of d price it’s close

by yondaime4 on Dec 17, 2010 9:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

What’s the status of Dimaster Delgado? If he can get his stuff together, he could be on this list next year and not too far from contending for a rotation spot.

by MatM on Dec 17, 2010 8:05 PM EST reply actions  

I think he is in instructs and just began throwing again.

by yondaime4 on Dec 18, 2010 1:22 AM EST up reply actions  

it's close

Teheran, Minor, Delgado, Beachy, Perez, Hoover vs. Hellickson, Moore, McGee, Torres, and Colome.

by Braves24 on Dec 17, 2010 11:27 PM EST reply actions  

fail

fail reply to yondaime4

by Braves24 on Dec 17, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

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