FanPost

2011 Braves WAR Projections using Linear Regression

This model is based on fangraphs WAR

For more information on fWAR go here.

I used linear regression to forecast the player's WAR components

For more information about linear regression go here. 

Here are the projections for the current position players:

 

Name Position BAT FLD REP POS WAR
Brian McCann C 12.8 0.3 19.4 12.1 4.5
Freddie Freeman 1B 7.2 1 18.4 -11.5 1.5
Dan Uggla 2B 33.9 -12 21.7 2.7 4.6
Chipper Jones 3B 14.3 -1.8 17 2.1 3.2
Alex Gonzalez SS -8.5 5.7 16.7 6.3 2.0
Martin Prado LF/3B 30.6 0 20.8 -4.6 4.7
Nate McLouth CF -6.5 -10.5 18.1 2.3 0.3
Jason Heyward RF 44 4 22.6 -8.5 6.2
David Ross C 3.6 2.3 3.9 2.4 1.2
Joe Mather 1B/LF -11.3 0 12.2 -5.8 -0.5
Diory Hernandez INF -12.4 -1.7 8.2 2.7 -0.3
Matt Young OF -8.4 2.1 13.3 -2.4 0.5
Brooks Conrad PH 1.1 0 5.4 0 0.7

 

Notes:

*Due to lack of avaiable data, playing time and wOBA projections for Heyward, Freeman were taken from Bill James Online. The playing time projection for Prado was also taken from Bill James Online.

*League average wOBA was set at 0.330.

*In an effort to add more batting data for Prado, Mather, Hernandez, Young, and Conrad I used data from AAA. An MLE OPS was calculated using this. The OPS was then converted to wOBA via the methodology outlined here.

*Due to lack of avaiable data, defensive projections for Freeman, Heyward, Prado, Mather, Herandez, and Young were guestimated by the author.

*Catcher defense data was taken from total zone for years <2010. 2010 data was taken from here. All other defensive data is from URZ.

 

Thoughts:

*Total WAR from position players=28.6 (2010=25.8, 2009=23.0, 2008=25.3)

*It is doubtful that Mather, Hernandez, Young, and Conrad make the final team. As players are added/new information becomes avaiable, I will try to update these projections.

*I will do Pitcher projections next and that will give nice team projection. It may be awhile though, minorleaguesplits.com is down and I don't know of any other way to get MLE FIPs.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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