This model is based on fangraphs WAR
For more information on fWAR go here.
I used linear regression to forecast the player's WAR components
For more information about linear regression go here.
Here are the projections for the current position players:
| Name | Position | BAT | FLD | REP | POS | WAR |
| Brian McCann | C | 12.8 | 0.3 | 19.4 | 12.1 | 4.5 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 7.2 | 1 | 18.4 | -11.5 | 1.5 |
| Dan Uggla | 2B | 33.9 | -12 | 21.7 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
| Chipper Jones | 3B | 14.3 | -1.8 | 17 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Alex Gonzalez | SS | -8.5 | 5.7 | 16.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 |
| Martin Prado | LF/3B | 30.6 | 0 | 20.8 | -4.6 | 4.7 |
| Nate McLouth | CF | -6.5 | -10.5 | 18.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Jason Heyward | RF | 44 | 4 | 22.6 | -8.5 | 6.2 |
| David Ross | C | 3.6 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Joe Mather | 1B/LF | -11.3 | 0 | 12.2 | -5.8 | -0.5 |
| Diory Hernandez | INF | -12.4 | -1.7 | 8.2 | 2.7 | -0.3 |
| Matt Young | OF | -8.4 | 2.1 | 13.3 | -2.4 | 0.5 |
| Brooks Conrad | PH | 1.1 | 0 | 5.4 | 0 | 0.7 |
Notes:
*Due to lack of avaiable data, playing time and wOBA projections for Heyward, Freeman were taken from Bill James Online. The playing time projection for Prado was also taken from Bill James Online.
*League average wOBA was set at 0.330.
*In an effort to add more batting data for Prado, Mather, Hernandez, Young, and Conrad I used data from AAA. An MLE OPS was calculated using this. The OPS was then converted to wOBA via the methodology outlined here.
*Due to lack of avaiable data, defensive projections for Freeman, Heyward, Prado, Mather, Herandez, and Young were guestimated by the author.
*Catcher defense data was taken from total zone for years <2010. 2010 data was taken from here. All other defensive data is from URZ.
Thoughts:
*Total WAR from position players=28.6 (2010=25.8, 2009=23.0, 2008=25.3)
*It is doubtful that Mather, Hernandez, Young, and Conrad make the final team. As players are added/new information becomes avaiable, I will try to update these projections.
*I will do Pitcher projections next and that will give nice team projection. It may be awhile though, minorleaguesplits.com is down and I don't know of any other way to get MLE FIPs.
There are 34 Comments. Load Now.
Shortcuts to mastering the comment thread. Use wisely.
C - Next Comment
X - Mark as Read
R - Reply
Z - Mark Read & Next
Shift + C - Previous
Shift + A - Mark All Read
Comment Settings
Live comment alert: Hide it!
Comments for this post are closed.