For New Braves Second Baseman Dan Uggla, It Really Is All About Turner Field

when you wake up two mornings in a row and you still can’t believe the trade happened.

I’m so motherf’ing excited for the 2011 season.

Can’t wait to see the whole season there. It sure as heck ain’t the heat.

Soo im thinking my man crush on sir Uggla is stilll in full effect. Question tho, any news on what number he will be wearing? They say he’s more than glad and honor bobby by not wearing no.6. Soo any news as far as that goes??

A couple of points:
1. In general, the Braves pitching staff has to be acknowledged as at least ‘above average’ during Uggla’s first years in the league. This suggests to me that he’s outperformed the norm at The Ted, and probably isn’t worse than average at the Fish Tank.
2. In the Marlins’ lineups, there are two guys that — perennially — you want to go after in the hopes that they won’t beat you: Hanley and Uggla. Despite that emphasis, Uggla has been beating the Braves — at least in Atlanta.
3. I wouldn’t call those numbers ‘small samples’ — each of the splits represents nearly a third of a year. And even so, the disparity is SO wide that it boggles the mind. Suppose you tripled the ABs, yet had no home/away difference (.287 – the average overall) for all of those extra ABs. He would STILL have a noticeable differential of over 45 points in Atlanta vs. Miami based on the prior data.

That suggests the “Vlad Effect” to me: go get the guy who’s been crushing the ball against you and hope he continues doing it in your home park.

Harold Reynolds and company are mad that Felix won the Cy Young. Their justification is utterly laughable. MLB Network needs a more stat-savvy crew than the world-wide leader.

but I’ll believe that he’s actually better at Turner Field when he has more than about 1/2 season’s worth of PAs there. If this were Arizona or Colorado and you could easily explain the difference, it’d be one thing… But for the life of me, I can’t think of any reason why he’d hit better here than in FLA. In his career he has almost no home/road split, so it’s not that he hates hitting in FLA… and his BABIP in Atlanta is crazy high.

Another thing I’m curious about is how his numbers will look when you replace his PAs vs. Atlanta with ones vs. FLA. He has just killed Hudson and Lowe the past few years in particular—maybe he loves hitting against sinkerballers—and replacing those PAs with ones from the Marlins’ staff (all of whom are around league average in GB/FB) may hurt his numbers.

Maybe he’ll name his next kid Turner?

/Chippered

Let’s say Uggla had exactly 201 ABs in Florida and Atlanta, and for the sake of his potential to “break the trend”, let’s take the extreme route and say he went 27-for-27 in Florida and 0-for-20 in Atlanta. His average at each stadium would then be:
Florida: .323 avg
Atlanta: .318 avg
So, even in the most extreme condition, an 0-for-20 streak, which would never happen with a hitter like Uggla, who doesn’t ever have a stretch of more than 10 or so ABs without a hit AND a strikeout, he’d still be a great hitter in Atlanta…and obviously a 27-for-27 streak would make you a “great hitter” in any ballpark.
There are other things to look at though. What were the splits for the Braves’ pitchers he faced for ATL vs FLA, Home vs Away, etc. He may have faced a great deal of pitchers who just simply pitch better in Florida. However, I doubt it.
I’ve always remembered Uggla tearing us up at home, so let’s all hope he can continue hitting the seams off the ball when he comes to play for us!

Except way better.
They both:
Play 2B
Are brolic
Are short
Hit bombbsssss
Dont hit for much of an AVG

I know it’s heresy to fight the Interwebz memes, but can someone actually provide some statistical evidence for the belief that Uggla will take an offensive nose dive in his mid-30s? That seems to be the CW, but I don’t see any significant danger signs in his BB%, K%, or other key categories (ISO has remained strong, even playing half his games in Fla.).

And no, “his is the sort of body that does not age well” is not statistical evidence.