FanPost

Braves vs Giants, Game #2 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Braves and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 8:00 AM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 ATL SF T.Hanson vs M.Cain SF 58.16% 54.83%

 

Notes:  Vegas is a little more confident in a Giants win than my simulator is for today's game.  Feel free to take a shot at guessing which final score from the table occurs and also take a stab at the five over/under questions from today's game.  The person with the best guess wins the chance to be yelled at by John Rocker.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. T.Hanson total strikeouts: 5.5
3. Braves bullpen total batters faced: 7.5
4. M.Cain hits plus walks allowed: 6.5
5. B.McCann plus J.Heyward total bases minus B.Posey total bases: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 SF 7-4   101 SF 9-6
2 SF 2-1   52 SF 8-2   102 ATL 11-2
3 SF 4-3   53 SF 8-1   103 ATL 10-5
4 ATL 3-2   54 SF 7-0   104 SF 9-7
5 ATL 2-1   55 ATL 7-5   105 ATL 11-1
6 SF 3-1   56 ATL 8-2   106 SF 11-0
7 SF 1-0   57 SF 7-5   107 SF 11-4
8 ATL 3-1   58 ATL 7-0   108 SF 10-5
9 ATL 4-3   59 ATL 8-3   109 ATL 11-3
10 SF 4-2   60 ATL 7-6   110 SF 12-1
11 SF 5-4   61 ATL 8-1   111 SF 10-6
12 ATL 4-2   62 SF 8-3   112 SF 12-2
13 SF 2-0   63 SF 8-4   113 ATL 10-6
14 SF 4-1   64 SF 9-2   114 ATL 12-2
15 ATL 1-0   65 ATL 8-4   115 SF 11-5
16 ATL 2-0   66 SF 8-0   116 ATL 11-0
17 ATL 4-1   67 SF 9-1   117 SF 12-3
18 SF 3-0   68 SF 8-7   118 ATL 9-8
19 SF 5-2   69 ATL 8-5   119 SF 10-9
20 SF 5-3   70 SF 9-3   120 SF 12-4
21 ATL 5-4   71 ATL 8-0   121 ATL 11-5
22 ATL 5-2   72 SF 8-5   122 ATL 12-3
23 ATL 5-3   73 ATL 9-2   123 ATL 11-4
24 ATL 3-0   74 ATL 9-3   124 SF 12-0
25 SF 5-1   75 ATL 9-1   125 ATL 10-7
26 ATL 5-1   76 ATL 9-4   126 SF 12-5
27 SF 4-0   77 SF 9-4   127 ATL 12-4
28 SF 6-5   78 ATL 8-6   128 SF 13-3
29 ATL 4-0   79 SF 8-6   129 ATL 12-1
30 SF 6-1   80 SF 10-1   130 SF 10-7
31 SF 6-2   81 SF 9-0   131 ATL 11-6
32 ATL 6-2   82 SF 10-2   132 SF 11-6
33 SF 6-3   83 ATL 8-7   133 ATL 10-8
34 ATL 6-3   84 SF 10-3   134 SF 13-2
35 SF 5-0   85 ATL 10-2   135 SF 13-0
36 ATL 6-1   86 SF 9-5   136 SF 13-1
37 ATL 6-4   87 ATL 9-5   137 SF 13-4
38 SF 6-4   88 ATL 10-1   138 ATL 10-9
39 ATL 5-0   89 ATL 9-0   139 SF 11-7
40 ATL 6-5   90 SF 10-4   140 ATL 12-5
41 SF 6-0   91 ATL 10-3   141 ATL 12-0
42 SF 7-2   92 SF 9-8   142 SF 14-1
43 SF 7-1   93 SF 10-0   143 SF 10-8
44 ATL 7-3   94 SF 11-2   144 ATL 11-7
45 ATL 7-2   95 ATL 10-4   145 ATL 13-1
46 SF 7-6   96 ATL 9-6   146 ATL 12-6
47 SF 7-3   97 SF 11-1   147 ATL 14-2
48 ATL 6-0   98 SF 11-3   148 SF 11-8
49 ATL 7-1   99 ATL 10-0   149 SF 14-3
50 ATL 7-4   100 ATL 9-7   150 ATL 12-7

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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