Disproving a Kawakami myth...

Astros
Blue Jays
Brewers
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Yankees

Only two playoffs teams (who had horrible problems at the back end of their rotations), with some of the others questionable at best, mostly composed of the worst teams in baseball, and some where he’d slot 4th but mostly 5th.

This is looking promising.

Didn’t pacgnosis (maybe it was someone else) do a post like this (but with numbers) last season determining which teams Kenshin would start on?

This post certainly contains a lot of statistical information to back up the thesis.

I’m sorry but there’s no way KK starts for the Yanks

KK had similar or better year than both Kazmir and Santana. Santana averaged one more strikeout per nine. Trevor Bell started all of 7 games, so I don’t know why his name’s even there. He did okay against horrible teams, but got bombed in his only two starts against teams with records better than .500.

-C

Sheets is comparable, Mazzaro is worse, and Duchsherer is worse in all of his five starts.

I know you said “when healthy,” but Duchsherer’s been a healthy starter for only one season of his 10-year career and Sheets will likely never return to his “healthy” form.

-C

We’ve reached 20 of the 30 teams in the league that he could reasonably start for. 2/3 of the league goes a little beyond “bottom feeders,” and I imagine there’s more teams that he could actually pitch for than the list provided. I just checked the first two “no” teams on your list and called it after they both proved to be “yes.”

So far, the only thing that this post has settled beyond a shadow of a doubt is that KK is definitely a viable starting option, filling a #3-#5 slot, depending on the depth of the team’s rotation.

-C

KK would start on the YANKEES? Huh?

I think he could start with:
Pirates
Mets
Astros
Brewers
Orioles
Indians
Royals
Mariners

Blue jays, Rockies, dbacks, yanks, fish all have better staffs’, not that they are good staffs’

It has returned.

The Braves mismanaged the situation so badly it’s comical.

Because overusing Venters, pitching a tired Minor, and using Jesse Fucking Chavez in tied extra inning games is a great idea. So long, Cox.

I basicly agree with Mr Sanchez…..KK would have made it as a Starter (though maybe only as an injury replacement for the Yanks) for the teams you mentioned. After watching most of these pitchers this year I can see him easliy being the 3 or 4 starter on a lot of teams.

Ok, When to Stat and When not to Stat.
Justing would be right if the comparison numbers were a “One to one” argument but in a general argument involving sooooo many players a single stat may have been helpfull…like Whip….but not needed

a 1 or 2, none.
A 3 – Diamondbacks, Indians, Royals, maybe Orioles
A 4 – Rockies, Tigers, Astros, Brewers, Mariners, Mets, Pirates, and maybe Padres.

On the rest, he’d be either a 5 or not starting. That’s more than half the league on which he wouldn’t start or be a 5th starter when everyone’s healthy. To me, that screams a 4/5, not a possible 3 (unless your rotation is abysmal). Last year doesn’t change that opinion. He’s a decent starter, and fits in the back end of a rotation nicely. But to claim he’s a possible 3, except on the worst of rotations, is ignoring the staffs around the league, and how he’s pitched.

2009:
ERA – 52 (3.97)
FIP – (4.21)
xFIP – (4.61)
K:BB – 94 (1.85)
K/9 – 87 (6.18)
WHIP – 66 (1.35)
DIPS – 67 (4.31)

2010
ERA – 123 (4.85)
FIP – (4.35)
xFIP – (4.56)
K:BB – 109 (1.84)
K/9 – 96 (6.22)
WHIP – 124 (1.45)
DIPS – 65 (3.96)

As you can see, KK at his worst is still right around the top 100. Doing the simple math:

30 teams X 5 pitchers = 150 pitchers
#3/4 pitchers would find themselves sitting in the 60-120 range.

KK clearly falls within that range. Granted, some teams’ #3s could be #1s on other teams and vice versa, but using a peanut butter spread,based on the league average KK falls right in line with 3/4 pitchers. And I have used stats to show this, not just a list of names.

Re: His WAR

Sanchez mentioned that KK was only worth .8 WAR this season – what he failed to mention was that WAR is a cumulative stat, and KK only pitched about half of this season. When this was pointed out, he said that we can’t assume that KK’s production would have continued. Is this true?

Well, in 2009, KK pitched 156.1 innings, posting a 3.86 ERA, 4.21 FIP and a 4.61 xFIP. His total WAR for 2009 was 1.7.

In 2010, KK pitched 87.1 innings, posting a 5.15 ERA, 4.35 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP. His total WAR value for 2010 was .8.

Seeing as how he pitched nearly exactly half of what he did the season before with minimal change in his stats (except a spike in ERA, which is countered by a drop in xFIP) and that he produced at nearly the exact value as in 2009, I’d say it is safe to assume that KK would have duplicated his 2009 with a slightly higher ERA – probably finishing somewhere in the 4.50 range. Also, something else to remember is that KK lost a LOT of value in the few innings he had out of the bullpen this season – after not pitching in a game for over a month.

In other words, the stats show that KK is a 3/4 caliber MLB pitcher. And no, I don not have a list of names of pitchers that I think KK is better than. I just have stats and rankings that show that he is, at worst, a league-average pitcher.

*FIP rankings are not included, because the only place I can find them is Fangraphs, and that page isn’t working over here. If someone could post his FIP ranking amongst starting pitchers with 80 IPs minimum, I would appreciate it.

OK fine…. I’ll give my expert advice on this topic so it can be over with…I know you were waiting for that.

Sanchez recently we have been agreeing a lot and generally we see eye to eye on things…you are very rational and usually think shit through….however this post was lazily put together and that is a shame, because had you put the work into it I think people would have seen you are right. I did the get the rankings for Justin (as his afghani internet blows ass). And despite the fact that he has the number he refuses to acknowledge their significance.

What the numbers show, by and large, is first that KK was no worse a pitcher in 2010, then he was in 2009. some number are different, but I would posit most of the differences are mostly just flucations due to luck and random variation. The numbers also show that he is a 4th stasrter. Justin thinks he could be a 3 on some teams, and he could…but those teams aren’t really good teams…as Sanchez mentions in the comments, they are all horrible teams who wont compete for a while. KK would probably be the 5th starter on every team in basbeall, notwithstanding 5 or so (off the top of my head, he probably wouldnt make the Red Sox, Rays, Giants, rotations… he might not make the White Sox rotation..or the twins).

Every agrees he is probably a 4th starter, and there are some teams he could start for as the 3 and some he wouldnt make the rotation…so why get all in a tiffy about whether he is a 3/4 or a 4/5…its very insignificant…the fact is he is a good pitcher that has value in MLB, thats all that is important…

lets just hug it out bitch and call it a day…and agree Tommy Hanson is better than KK

I believe this list is quite generous, actually, I would prolly say this list that follows would be more realistic, and then even this list gets narrowed down based on minor leaguers who teams will bring up and start, and narrowed even further from his obviously lovely contract. But say, take the following list as a guideline, for possible teams where he could start, if this was true, I believe, the Braves could prolly trade him alot easier then it has been, but then again, who is to say they really forced the issue and made seriously hard attempts to trade him last year. Although, now, they know their total pitching depth they will have made available to them. I’m all in favor of a bag of baseballs and half the contract eaten. 3.5 mil, throughout the first half, helped us reach the playoffs.

Astros
Blue Jays
Brewers
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Yankees