The Braves' Biggest Problem

by BrandonG on Oct 1, 2010 2:55 PM EDT

The 2010 Atlanta Braves have a long list of problems: Season-ending injuries to Chipper Jones, Kris Medlen and Martin Prado have weakened the starting rotation and starting lineup. Jair Jurrjens, who was struggling before he got hurt, may also be done. The starting pitching staff has struggled in September. Finally, the team is struggling to score runs.

But, none of these often cited problems has actually been the Braves' biggest problem in 2010. At the top of the list should be rotten luck. Luck, as has become apparent by mounting statistical evidence, is about the most important factor in baseball. And it hasn't been on the Braves' side this season.

Batting average on balls in play, fly ball to home run ratios and Pythagorean win-loss totals have exposed the random luck involved with baseball. Frankly, delving deep into modern statistical analysis can make baseball seem like an elaborate version of Uno. This season, the Braves have drawn a pair of Draw Fours: The Braves have won fewer games than they should have won and, conversely, the Phillies have won more games than they should have won.

Bill James' Pythagorean win-loss statistic determines how many games a team should be expected to win based on how many runs they score and how many runs they allow. So far this season, the Braves have an excellent run differential of +121, the best mark in the National League. According to Pythagorean win-loss, this should equate to a record of 93-66. However, the Braves are actually 90-69, three games worse. Meanwhile, the Phillies have lucked their way into two more wins than expected.

Add it all up and the Braves and Phillies should be tied atop the National League East, not 5 games back. The only Braves player with 5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) this year is Brian McCann. In other words it would take a second Brian McCann in the Braves lineup to make up for the Braves bad luck this season. The Braves have not lost even close to 5 WAR due to injuries this season, mainly because Jones, Prado and Medlen have been replaced with major-league quality players, not replacement-level players.

The good news is the Braves have actually been better this season than their record indicates. A strong case could still be made they have been the best team in the National League in 2010. While the Braves' other problems still linger, the wonderful thing about luck is it tells us absolutely nothing about what is going to happen in the future. Going into the playoffs, the Braves biggest problem of the season may just go away. And, who knows, maybe with some good luck in playoffs the National League's best team may overcome injuries and win a World Championship.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Bad luck has actually been a pattern for the Braves even since 2005, the last year they made the playoffs. They have possibly been the unluckiest team in baseball over the past five seasons. Look at Pythagorean win-loss totals on Baseball-Reference.com and you will see what I mean.

by BrandonG on Oct 1, 2010 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

I don't suppose...

That Derrick Lee brought the Great Goat Curse over with him from Chicago?

What is both surprising and delightful is that spectators are allowed, and even expected, to join in the vocal part of the game.... There is no reason why the field should not try to put the batsman off his stroke at the critical moment by neatly timed disparagements of his wife's fidelity and his mother's respectability. ~George Bernard Shaw

by Chopaholic on Oct 1, 2010 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

funny thing is

we’ve played like #$%$ in September, but we’ve had the 4th best “last 30 games” in the National League.

The Phillies will kill the Reds. We’ll struggle with the Giants and we’ll get pounded by the Phillies.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 1, 2010 3:18 PM EDT reply actions

i meant

“last 20” games.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 1, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

we’ll get pounded by the Phillies.

Funny how we had a guy making his major league debut, a kid who shouldn’t even be pitching still, and Hanson on the mound in that last series, and we were a lucky hit here or there away from winning at least one game, if not two.

'Terrible preview...pretty weak, didn't learn anything new. pretty sad." - mastermike

by Scott Coleman on Oct 1, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Woulda, coulda, shoulda..

A win is a win and a loss is a loss. That could work both ways resulting in the Phillies getting a lucky hit here or there and making it a blowout instead of a close loss.

You can muff a punt but can't punt a muff

by andyb on Oct 2, 2010 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions

We’ll struggle with the Giants and we’ll get pounded by the Phillies.

A pox on you, sir, for even suggesting such a thing.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Oct 1, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

This

And fie on thee as well. May all your churdren be born nekkid.

by J-Freak on Oct 1, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

honestly

if you think we won’t struggle with the Giants, you either don’t follow baseball or are not very bright. i’m thinking the latter. how’s that for a pox?

the Phillies are 16-4 recently. 16-4. They’ve played us and, with all due respect to mvh, it was more than a “lucky hit here and there”. they out played us in every facet of the game.

we could get lucky and go on a Houston Astro-esque run or be this year’s Colorado Rockies, but without Prado (arguably our MVP this year) and more pitiching depth (not to metion playing in Philly for 3) we are going to struggle mightily for the hitting we need.

as for the pox on me comment,

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 1, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah...

Why would we think that we might play the Giants pretty well??

I mean, it’s not like the season record is in our favor, 4-3. It’s not like we outscored them 28-19 in those games. It’s not like they only held us to two or fewer runs in two of those seven games. It’s not like two of our three losses were by a single run while three of our four wins were by 3+ runs.

It’s not like Hudson is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a .125 BAA, Hanson is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA and .130 BAA and Lowe is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA and .231 BAA.

It’s not like we had a loss in the 11th and 13th innings, and the one convincing win the Giants had came with Kenshin Kawakami starting.

You’re right, the Braves are utterly overmatched.

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Oct 1, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

anhem

i said we’d STRUGGLE with the Giants. didn’t say we would lose. as a matter of fact, all those series had Chipper AND Prado in the lineup. where are they now?

but i suppose reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit.

and based on last night…we’ll get destroyed by the Phillies.

but don’t let your opinion get in the way of your perception of the truth.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 2, 2010 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Neither series had Chipper AND Prado

Chipper was injured for the first series at SF, Prado was injured for the second series at home.

Neither have a huge effect on the lockdown performances of our projected playoff rotation against the Giants.

My opinion here has no bearing upon the facts I presented in the previous post. My opinion doesn’t have a detectable effect upon ERAs or offensive runs scored, as far as I know. Perhaps your reading comprehension could use a little dust-off.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Oct 2, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

nice

by Braves24 on Oct 2, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Can’t we all just get along? I mean, look off to your right —>

…The Mets are firing everyone after the season and we are in great position to go to the playoffs in five years. What’s there to fight or be sad about?

Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Oct 1, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

we will struggle with the giants

but how can you just say we will loose to the phillies? I agree they are a good team, but all things are possible in october. we have three pitchers capable of aceing their offence. That’;s not to say they dont have 3 aces that can also throw shutouts, but with six pitchers like that, there is no garauntee in anything.

Besides.. anyone here gonna tell me the braves are predictable?

by willlinn on Oct 2, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

My goodness...

Someone doesn’t have a very sharp sense of humor. I was JOKING… making a play on your username…

I really admire your ability to ascertain the level of my intelligence based on one sentence.

BTW, I actually do expect a competitive series with the Giants. We may struggle a bit offensively against their pitching, but I expect they will do the same against ours. It’s going to come down to who struggles the least.

by sddbaker on Oct 6, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

bite me

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 1, 2010 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

and i mean that as a Christian.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 1, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

The Phillies will win the World Series.

As apoxonbothyourhouses said, they are a force to be reckoned with… a juggernaut.

Thanks Bobby!

by GouldisGold on Oct 2, 2010 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

braves or yankees

by willlinn on Oct 2, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Good article

This is a thoughtful piece. Good analysis, I have been lamenting for the past several years how poor the Braves luck is. It seems like weakly hit balls find their into the outfield for the opposition while the Braves hit rockets directly at a fielder. Honestly though, I believe some of the bad luck would subside if they would actually field a defense capable of covering ground and fielding balls that are more than 3 inches away from them. This has been without a doubt the worst defensive baseball team I have seen in quite sometime from a traditional fielding perspective and from the more analytical Ultimate Zone Rating perspective. In sum, bad luck has occurred, but they really need to be creating their own good fortune through better fundamental play.

by Tomahawk Mafia on Oct 3, 2010 1:41 AM EDT reply actions

There’s nothing Frank Wren can do about bad luck, so I’d rather focus on the things that can be fixed: the horrible no good hitting (and defense) from LF and CF, the porous overall defense, and the managing.

by redwards95 on Oct 3, 2010 6:23 AM EDT reply actions

One word !

Jayson Werth sell the farm and give up the first rounder for this guy he is the real deal. Werth has killed us a ton in about every game of the Philly series this weekend. He is a RH – power bat still in his prime an I would love to see him manning LF next season in ATL for years to come. Could you imagine a lineup with both Werth and Heyward in it for say the next five seasons ? How crazy could that be, Braves need to pony up the cash for this guy PERIOD ! He is the real deal. No way he stays in Philly after this season and they already have several guys to take his place or so they think. Werth can also play CF if needed but LF would be a great spot for him.

No way Melky or Diaz are retained this year, only guys that deserve new deals from our bench are Conrad (still under team control and not arb eligible yet), Hinske – lock him up first thing with a new one year deal after the post season run is over, and lastly Infante whom more than likely will walk, he is going to be a unrestricted free agent that made the NL all-star team this year and with so many other needs and J. Thurston in the minors ( if he is retained next season) then we have someone whom can replace him or sign another guy to replace him. Infante is going to want a starting job and their is no way after the good numbers he has put up this year that he is going to resign with ATL.

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 3, 2010 6:35 PM EDT reply actions

Werth

Will have plenty of cash to spend, Wags-Saito-Diaz-Melky-Glaus-Lee- are definately goners after post season is over. More than likely Infante will want a starting job as I stated above so he is a goner as well. Braves have the cash and just need to trade McClouth and KK for bats and balls to the Royals or Brewers/Pirates for anything and dump their contracts.

We will have the cash to land Werth if all of that happens. Come on Wren bring us Werth.

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Oct 3, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions