Comparing This Years Roster to Last
by BenDuronio on Jan 7, 2010 4:57 PM EST
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Spring Training will unveil a vastly different roster compared to that of the previous Spring Training's and even compared to the roster to close out 2009. In this article I will compare and contrast the new players to the old.
Start of 2009
The lineup going into 2009 consisted of Casey Kotchman at first, Kelly Johnson at second, Garret Anderson in left, Jordan Schafer in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. None of these players were very productive last season. The most Kotchman ever helped was in his trade for Adam LaRoche. Johnson had a down year and suffered from tendinitis in his wrist. Schafer started off hot and also succumbed to an injured wrist. Francoeur was exactly what everyone should have projected going into last season, bad. Anderson was the only player of the bunch that finished out the season with the Braves. He managed to hit 13 home runs but his OBP was barely above .300.
The only difference at the start of 2009 and the end of 2009 in the rotation was JoJo Reyes. JoJo started so that Tommy Hanson could get some more work in the minors and avoid becoming a "super two." JoJo again proved that he is the epitome of a AAAA player.
The End of 2009
The lineup at seasons end Kotchman had been replaced with LaRoche, Francoeur with Ryan Church, Schafer with McLouth, and Johnson with Prado. LaRoche was the best hitter the Braves had after the acquired him and was solid defensively. Church was decent as a Braves, his production was close to what his career numbers are aside from a dip in his power numbers. McLouth also performed similar to his career numbers but the Braves expected a little bit more out of him. Prado had an amazing year last year after taking the job from Johnson and he made Johnson expendable. As a Johnson supporter even I agreed with this move and second base is now Prado's for the foreseeable future. The bench also consisted of Greg Norton and Reid Gorecki during the final days of August(Last days before roster expands.)
The rotation remained similar but added Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hudson proved that he can still be a good pitcher despite his Tommy John surgery and Hanson was one of the top rookies and will be the future ace of the Atlanta Braves for many years.
The bullpen was headlined by Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano the entire season and both took turns as closer. Both relievers turned in very good seasons earning them type A classifications as free agents.
Start of 2010
The newest additions to the lineup going into Spring Training are Troy Glaus, Jason Heyward, Melky Cabrera, and Eric Hinske. Hinske and Cabrera are not expected to be regular starters but both have experience starting at multiple positions and in pressure scenarios. Glaus has been injury prone during the latter half of the decade and was an inexpensive signing. He will move to 1B this season and if healthy has potential to slug over .500 and hit 30 home runs. Jason Heyward is the Braves top prospect and BaseballAmerica.com's #2 overall prospect. His minor league career showed that he has the athletic ability, maturity, and patience to become a great major league hitter. It is reasonable to expect a Tommy Hanson like performance out of Heyward in 2010.
The rotation lost its most productive starter of last season in Javier Vazquez, but the overall production from the starters should not suffer. Tim Hudson virtually replaces Vazquez and over the course of his career has been a better pitcher.
The bullpen lost its two most productive and prolific arms but replaced them with veterans Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. Both are health risks and are well past their prime, however these are short term deals for experienced back end relievers.
What to expect
The lineup going into this season is better than the lineup going into last season. The rotation going into this season is better than the rotation going into last season solely based on Hanson starting for a full season. The bullpen should be similar to last and it is usually hard to project a bullpen because relievers are so sporadic on a year to year basis.
Overall the roster going into this season is better than the roster that started and ended the roster last season. If healthy, these facts state that it is reasonable to expect post season contention.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Post season contention
I agree. Last years 86 wins ended with a long losing streak. This years team looks like 90+ wins, possibly 94-95, based on improvements over last year. I hope Chipper and McCann have invited Glaus to their batting cage. Seems like they could get to know one another before spending the next 7-8 months together.
This team goes as far as Chipper and Troy Glaus take us. It’s really that simple, in my honest opinion.
Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way.
I agree completely.
Our season hinges on their health and production. Without those two in the lineup, we start seeing a lot of holes in the offense.
by FineHamAbounds on Jan 7, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Wags and Saito are pretty huge injury risks as well.
That bullpen could go from pretty good to really bad very quickly.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
even if
Wagner and Saito go down the bullpen still has the potential to be good.
by drumzalicious on Jan 8, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know that I'd go that far.
That would likely mean Moylan, EOF, Medlan, Chavez, Dunn, Acosta, and Reyes. There is some potential there, but there are alot of unknowns in that group. The know commodoties are mostly middle reliever types who will now be used in much higher leverage situations than they should. I wouldn’t be very comfortable with that as my bullpen.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
a combination of Moylan and EoF in the 9th inning would work well by playing them to matchups. Medlen is solid vs both lefties and righties to pitch the 8th innings. Between Chavez, Dunn, Abreu, Kimbrel, Acosta, Hyde, Lyman etc there is enough potential there.
we will find out come spring training.
by drumzalicious on Jan 8, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
“Between Chavez, Dunn, Abreu, Kimbrel, Acosta, Hyde, Lyman etc there is enough potential there.”
Tons of IFS there also. Wagner and Saito go down we are in a mess, doesn’t matter how much damn depth or potential we have there those 2 guys are the real deal, it would hurt extremely bad if those 2 are hurt for awhile.
braves#1
how many teams you got can lose their two best relievers...
and survive? Where would the Yankees be if Mariano Rivera went down, let alone him and one other.
Yeah, Wagner and Saito have an injury in their past, so do a lot of other relievers. If the DRs think they’re healthy enough to go, they are better than most. If they go down, we’re screwed like everyone else who loses their best two relievers. There’s teams who can stay healthy and still have a worse bullpen than we would losing Wagner and Saito.
As far as Medlen goes, the RHB that hit .328/.386/.508 would love that thought, while the LHB that hit .183/.291/.278 probably would not.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
thats weird
i would have expected lefties to hit him better. I highly doubt that split was that large as a reliever tho
by drumzalicious on Jan 9, 2010 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
So would I, he performed like a right handed LOOGY.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 9, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely
agree with the IFs to happen between being healthy and productive from the middle of the order with Chipper adn Glaus though atleast FW will have 4-5M to add a additional Bat if needed midseason if they don’t. We will probable get better value during the season in getting a effective bat than what is on the current FA market with the cost to sign. Braves will compete all year long with this line but one or two of the IFs don’t pan out than FW will go get a bat to make run towards the playoffs
I’m reminded of last season when Chipper and Yunel were hurt, Frenchy was still out there in RF, and McCann had a day off. Prado, Diory, Frenchy and Ross don’t quite equal what I’d call a “playoff-caliber offense.”
by FineHamAbounds on Jan 7, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
fixed
"Prado, Diory, Frenchy, and Ross don’t quite equal what I’d call a playoff-caliber AAA offense."
I’m so clever since I learned the strike through
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
Yes,
Maybe up to 5 years ago either of these could take a team a long way! Now, I am thinking that they may take us nowhere. FW did not deliver us a Big bat only as huge trunkload of maybe’s and ifs!
Can we get 90 wins with what we put on the field…I think only with the help of our farm system.
We need runs…again we will need to average 4+ to win…
We averaged more than 4 runs...
…per game last year. No, we didn’t get the big bat (well, unless Heyward goes nuts) but there really weren’t any big bats available. I think Wren did a good job of keeping us near where we were at the end of last year while having to essentially cut payroll due to part of last year’s payroll being covered by insurance for Hudson.
When he's in the lineup...
Glaus qualifies as a “big bat”. His career numbers are certainly good enough to warrant that title.
I was hoping to see the line “McCann = Scheinder, because Scheinder’s defense is so good”
:)
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
I can’t wait for the discussions on the NL East and who’s the stronger team. I almost cried from laughing so hard at some of the Mets fans. When they were trying to convince me Mike Pelfrey was better than any of our starters, I think I did shed a tear or two.
Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 7, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
You're making the line too ledgible
It should be more like “mcan < schneidr cuz he haz better d”
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
This isn’t a novel idea, but if this roster is better than the one we started with last year (which I believe it is) and we’re in better shape to improve the team mid-season (as the payroll reduction indicates) I really like our chances to be in the playoff picture all season.
I mix your Melk with my cocoa puffs, Melky Melky cocoa puffs.
and god knows
we’re desperate for the playoffs. i mean, we just gotta do it for Bobby.
Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 7, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
I would argue
That this years bullpen will be better.
No more Blaine Boyer who in his 1.1 innings gave up 6 runs
No Jeff Bennett who in 34 innings gave up 42 hits and 21 walks . . . we all know that ERA is a lie
No Buddy Carlyle. Even though he was technically injured he still came back after wards and wasnt that effective
Also Campillo is gone but he was pretty good for us.
As our current BP stands we have
Wagner
Saito
Moylan
EoF
Medlen
With various other possibilities filling the last spots. Kimbrel, Dunn, Chavez, Hyde, Abreu, Lyman, and Proctor
Our bullpen has the POTENTIAL to be the best in the league
Hmmm
To play devils advocate here, just where have we gotten better. We were 4 game back when we aquired Laroche last year. By the end of the season we lost ground in the Wild Card and in the division. We lost our best starter and probably our best hitter from that time period. Will Diaz, Prado, and Jurrjens be able to play like they did? Our bullpen is now much older, although more experienced. I would say there are more IFs than answers this offseason, although I do feel that we have to potential to be better.
by wcubmac on Jan 8, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hudson vs. Vasquez
Over the course of their careers Hudson has been better than Vazquez. There is a possibility that our rotation is actually improved next season with Hanson getting another year of experience, Kawakami adapting more to the American game, and Hudson replacing Vazquez.
by BenDuronio on Jan 8, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would be quite shocked if Hudson has a better year this year, than Vazquez did last. That being said, it wouldn’t suprise me if Hudson had a better year this year, I just don’t think he was an improvement over last year.
I still think Vazquez might have a better year than Hudson
once you adjust for the league differences. We’ll see.
2010 atl javy > 2010 atl hudson
He's pretty good in 'The Show'....
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 9, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
I would be shocked if Vazquez or any other pitcher not named Lincecum has a better year in 2010 than Javy had in 2009.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 11, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think thats true.
Since Hudson became a Brave, he’s posted WAR value’s of 2.0, 2.6, 5.3, 2.4, and 0.7. In that same time span, Vazquez has posted WAR value’s of 3.6, 4.8, 5.1, 4.8, and 6.6. On recent history, I think you’d have to argue that Vazquez is the better pitcher.
That really isn’t 100% relevant though, as the Vazquez that Hudson is trying to replace is the one with a 6.6 WAR value, which is better than Hudson has ever put up in his career including his time in Oakland.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
i mean
you could also argue that by that time it was essentially too late. the phillies had just gotten an ace, The Dodgers just got Manny back, and the Rockies were starting to do really well.
In other words the first half of the season we did pretty terrible and that would have been the time to be in front of those guys because after we made our additions we kinda won at the same rate as the teams ahead of us because we finished the season basically where were were at the trade deadline. So if we had made those additions and they helped us just to keep pace imagine what would have happened if we had those additions the entire season. We would have been on top.
Glaus is better offensively than Kotchman and LaRoche were for us last year. We got 24 HR’s out of 1B and 13 of those came from LaRoche on his hot streak. We now have a consistent power threat behind chipper and McCann can drop lower in the lineup and we wont be affected as much when he has off days.
Diaz/Cabrera are better than what Garrett Anderson was. The whole first half of the season he was playing catch up and was struggling the whole time. He did ok in the middle of the season then fell off again. Diaz and Cabrera have the potential to make LF a lot better than it was last year. Offensively AND defensively.
I believe Heyward in his low point as a rookie will still be better than Frenchy.
Prado replacing KJ will hopefully do wonders for the offense because of KJ’s inconsistent offense even though for part of the time he was injured.
Schafer playing injured didnt help at all we now have McLouth who should be an upgrade over how Schafer was during the first couple of months of the season.
Hanson will out perform whatever JoJo Reyes was doing last season. Kawakami will do better, he started adjusting to the league more towards the end of the season and it should continue next season. Hudson probably wont give us a better season than Javy did but he will still give us a good enough one if he pitches how he did at the end of the season.
The bullpen will hopefully never see the likes of Bennett, Boyer, Carlyle, Acosta, and Logan again
by drumzalicious on Jan 8, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Consistent?
I’m not quite sure I would go as far as calling Glaus a “consistent” power threat behind Chipper. I mean, one of the major questions about next year is Glaus’ production and health, hence the incentive laden contract. While I share your thought that he is a much better player than either LaRoche or Kotchman, only time will tell if he is in the field long enough to prove it.
by High and Tight on Jan 8, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
when im saying consistent
im referring to his offense. he isnt a player like laroche who takes 2 months to remember how to hit the ball
by drumzalicious on Jan 8, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
But when LaRoche spent those months in Pittsburgh and Boston can you really complain about it?
The Braves had the good LaRoche for their 2nd half run, and that’s probably about the ceiling of what they can realistically expect from Glaus.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
and the point is
that if Glaus did what LaRoche did for us the ENTIRE time we got him a
.325/.401/.557 slash line i would be ecstatic but i know that wont happen he will more than likely give us a .255/.359/.497 line which is still good as his average production over a season and those 35 HR’s that he has averaged a season would look nice behind chipper as well. Heck Adam has never hit 35 HR’s in a season
by drumzalicious on Jan 9, 2010 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
Glaus, when healthy...
…has been a consistent power hitter. The question on Glaus is health, not performance.
One correction possibly.
The original post writer states that Heyward is Baseball America’s #2 prospect. I don’t think that list has been announced. So far, to my knowledge, one of the BA writers, who contributes to the rankings, but is not the only guy who contributes to the rankings, has published his personal list and ranked Strasburg #1 and Heyward #2. I think it is still quite possible that Heyward is #1 when the final list comes out.
I wouldn't say that Saito and Wagner are well past their primes...
I think they’re still really really good pitchers.
by UMass12 on Jan 8, 2010 11:38 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I think it's safe to argue that a 40 year old who just posted the lowest K%, highest BB%, and worst FIP of his career is past his prime.
The Red Sox also had the luxury of using him in situations where he matched up better. He’s definately still a decent pitcher, but he’s past his prime.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
THIS
A million times, THIS!
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
That was a stupid signing.
Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 9, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
we;ll see at the end of the year...
I like it. If healthy, he’s one of the best there is. If not, we aren’t spending too much (compared to other deals signed this winter by worse relievers) and have Moylan, Medlen, Kimbrel, Salary Relief, etc to step in as a set up man.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 10, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
i see your point and it is a good one...
the Braves roster is certainly improved over last year going into the season. It also would nice to see those lofty predictions of 94-95 wins, but the fact remains that the Phillies AND Mets roster are both much improved as well.
In fact all of the teams in the NL East have seemed to improve this offseason—including the Marlins/Nationals simply bc they are now older, more experienced teams
Really?
The mets are no where near contention with that roatation
by Braves Equals Life! on Jan 8, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
They also haven't run out of budget room yet, and are likely not finished.
Johan is just fine at the top of that rotation, and Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez all had fairly awful years. I think it’s fair to say all three should be somewhat better for next season. Depending what they do with the other spot in the rotation, that could be a very good team. If they just hand it over to Niese (who I think will be a solid back end guy), they’ll probably be a low to mid-80’s win team. The Mets farm system may not be overflowing with talent, but they could have easily matched either the Lee or Vazquez trades.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 8, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
they signed
Kelvim Escobar too, who could turn out to be effective if he gets the chance to start. It certainly wouldn’t shock me
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 8, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
They signed Escobar...
…to work in relief. I don’t think anyone trusts him to be able to start without shredding his arm.
this I know...
but hey, if someone goes down and he is proving successful in the pen then I could see the Mets giving him a chance to go 5-6 innings
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 9, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
At which point...
…Escobar will go down. If he hasn’t already. His stuff is plenty good, but he just can’t stay healthy at all.
The Mets are improved...
…by adding Bay and hopefully (for them) getting their injured stars back. The pitching, however, has a lot of issues. Ollie P. could be effective again in 2010, but he could easily blow up, there is just no way to know, he has been far too erratic over his entire career. I don’t think Maine and Pelfrey are really that good. They might do better than they did in 2009, but I don’t think they get back to the results they had in 2008; I don’t think their stuff is good enough for that. Pelfrey’s best year (2008) involved a FIP of 3.96, which just isn’t that good. Maine has never had a FIP under 4.00. They could be serviceable innings eaters, but I don’t see anything special.
i certainly dont think the Mets are any sort of contender...
but I will say they are an improved team. My point was that ALL of the teams are improved over last year, not that all teams in the NL East are playoff-bound.
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 9, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
If healthy, all of Santana, Reyes, Wright, and Beltran could be 6+ WAR players.
If Bay gives you about 4 WAR, that team should already win 80 games (assuming replacement level is 50-52 wins). For this argument lets assume they get the exact same production out of the rest of their starting lineup (including Francoeur’s 0.0), rotation (Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, and Niese), and exactly 0 WAR from their bench and bullpen (very conservative). That would add 6 more wins to the total we just had, making this an 86 win team. If that 5 man core stays healthy and performs, the Mets would almost need replacement level production from the rest of their roster not to contend. Keep in mind that the Mets are still at least 25 million dollars under last years payroll after you account for arbitration raises, and they’ll still likely add another starter and possibly upgrades to Santos and Murphy. Unless they get hit by the injury bug they’re contenders, not favorites by any means, but contenders.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 9, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
good numbers...
you certainly proved your point. I’ll agree that they might be contenders to slip into the playoffs as a 3 or 4 seed, but not contenders for a WS title.
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 9, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
The 2006 Cardinals and their 83-79 record would beg to differ...
Of all franchises Braves fans should know that the playoffs are a crapshoot, espescially with three rounds. You guys had the best team in baseball quite a few times during that run. The best team doesn’t win the world series as often as they fail to get there.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 9, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
Which brings up a good point.....
…..get rid of the damn wildcard! I know it’s great for t.v., the sport, blah, blah, blah. Expanding the postseason simply renders the accomplishments of the regular season obsolete. Why should a team who has proven they are the best in their division have to prove it again in the playoffs? Anything can happen in a single baseball series, which is why multiple series’ are played between division rivals over the course of the season. I say let the regular season decide who belongs in the World Series, not a team who catches fire on barrowed time.
by High and Tight on Jan 9, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
Could you imagine being a fan of the Orioles, Jays, or Rays if that happened though?
Those teams have awful odds of making the playoffs even with the wildcard, could you imagine what would happen if that was removed?
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 9, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Unfortunately....
…that is the life of a small market fan, or a team that won’t open the vault fan. While a select few do realize the dream, most recently the Florida Marlins, most smaller market teams only delay the inevitable. Until a salary cap is imposed the same teams will continue to dominate the landscape, so why clutter up the party with a bunch of wannabes?
by High and Tight on Jan 9, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
ya...
but no one expected them to win the WS going into that year’s playoffs. They were seen as a second-rate playoff team that overachieved—as with the Colorado Rockies later.
I am in no way saying that the Mets don’t have a chance to win it all, I just don’t think they will be on preseason lists as the team to beat. Even with another signing.
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 9, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
but alas...
I still see them as an improved team over last year’s debacle. Maybe not from effective signings but bc I don’t count on them getting hit by injuries so hard again.
by Jam_2_Fluffhead on Jan 9, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Any team that gets in the play-offs...
…is a WS Title contender. The play-offs are too much of a crapshoot.
Pelfrey, Maine and Perez HAVE to have better years than they did last year – but even then, they are nothing to worry about. At the top of their games, none of them would even be our 5th starter.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 11, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
1 thing I still don't understand....
How the hell did Wren get Boston to agree to swap Laroche for Kotchman?
Well...
2 yrs of ARB of kotchman a defensive + or less than 1/2 season of Laroche to FA seems a no brainer….
Well
most likely Kotchman wasn’t in the future for Boston but rather another trading cheap for some else to improve boston at 1B/prospects
LaRoche in Boston...
…was solely a bench player without much time. They saved money by moving him for Kotchman who is more of a typical bench player.
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